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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KAKQ 290014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
814 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sliding across the area pushes offshore tonight,
with rain gradually tapering off. Winds will become gusty
tonight into Friday. Northwesterly flow will allow weak
disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next
week, so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures
will warm well above normal for Easter weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

Flood watch has been cancelled across the region as rainfall
continues to push off the coast this evening. Some lingering
light rain will persist along the coast through about 10 pm.
High pressure to the northwest will continue to push southeast
into the region. Drier air is pushing into the region with sfc
dewpoints falling quickly into the 20s over the Shenandoah
Valley and I-81 corridor. That drier air will be pushing into
central and eastern portions of the forecast area overnight. So
expect clearing conditions tonight, but the winds will help hold
temperatures up a bit overnight so have left the current
overnight lows unchanged.


Previous Discussion...
Latest analysis showing elongated surface
low pressure lifting NNE offshore of the Outer Banks. Behind
the system, sfc cold front has pushed east of the I-95 corridor
into eastern VA and the coastal Delmarva, with precipitation
coming to an end over the western half of our area. Continue to
pick away at rain chances over inland areas where little more
than some patchy light rain or drizzle is expected through the
balance of the afternoon. Farther east, moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall continues across Hampton Roads and northeast
along the eastern shore. Event rainfall totals will turn out
more or less as expected, with up to an inch over the far
western tier of the area, 1-2" across RIC metro over to the MD
eastern shore, and we're still on track for 2-3" (locally
higher) over SE VA/NC NC. The Flood Watch remains in effect
through the afternoon over this area, where it should be able to
be lowered on time this evening as the rainfall threat wanes a
bit further.

The front will move through the remainder of the area and
offshore by sunset, taking the rain with it. The sky gradually
clears out late this evening and into the overnight hours. As
mentioned, expect northerly winds to become a bit breezy behind
the front as it moves east across the CWA. Low temperatures
late tonight drop into the mid to upper 30s well inland with
upper 30s to mid 40s from the I-95 corridor on east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Drying out and turning breezy. Wind gusts 20-25 mph inland,
25-330 mph along the coast.

Partly cloudy, breezy, and milder on Friday, as the pressure
gradient remains compressed between the departing system and
high pressure building to the NNW. This will tighten our pressure
gradient and create gusty west- northwest winds on Friday. Gusts
to 20-25mph inland, 25-30mph across the coast and along the
eastern shore. High temperatures Friday warm into the mid-
upper 60s inland, with coastal locations holding in the upper
50s to low 60s. Winds subside Fri evening into Saturday, but
between the well-mixed BL and increasing high clouds ahead of
the next system, continued to edge the forecast toward the
warmer end of the guidance envelope. Low temps mainly in the
40s, to near 50 SE.

The southern surface high will slide off the southeast coast for
Saturday, with NW flow aloft developing behind the departing
east coast trough. This will allow for numerous disturbances to
cross into the region from the Ohio Valley, resulting in periods
of increasing clouds and eventually some scattered showers by
late in the Easter weekend. 12z guidance has once again gone
drier, which is reasonable as the wave crosses the mountains.
Will increase clouds but keep PoPs contained across the far N
tier of the area closer to best moisture axis. Warmer highs into
the low to mid 70s inland 60s to near 70 over the eastern shore
on light southwesterly winds. Partly cloudy Saturday night with
lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Remaining mild for Easter Sunday with highs well into the 70s
inland, and in the 60s along the coast.

2. Increasing clouds Sunday w/ scattered showers possible by
Sunday afternoon over inland sections.

3. Spotty rain chances continue Monday with better rain chances
to slowly increase by the middle of next week.

Northwesterly flow persists to begin Easter Sunday, ahead of
slight ridging building into the MS River Valley area. However,
the next disturbance/moisture riding along the northern
periphery of the upper ridge crosses into the Ohio River Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Models are consistent with
showing some rain making it into our CWA late in the day Sunday
into Monday, as a weak front dags south into the region.
Continued slight to low- end chance PoP (20-30%) for this time
frame. Moisture continues to stream along the damp ridge ahead
of a strengthening upper level low moving out of the central
plains. While certainly neither day looks to be a washout, this
likely portends some scattered showers each day centered along
the increasingly diffuse frontal boundary. The front does
eventually get nudged back north Tue/Wed, as a stronger system
approaches from the west, but maintained low PoPs Tuesday for
the sake of continuity. SW flow ramps up PW values all over
again by the middle of next week, with EPS/GEFS both showing
better rain chances arriving by Wednesday. PoPs increase into
high-end chance range for now. Temperatures will remain on the
warm side with the ridging overhead - expecting mid to upper 70s
on Easter Sunday. Temps moderate back toward climo to start the
new work week as moisture streams into the area, though still
forecasting highs near to above normal in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. Cooler temperatures return behind the mid to
late week cold front, with highs falling back into the upper 50s
to mid 60s Wed/Thu, with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

The area of rain that has been lifting north along the coast all
day continues to make progress toward the coastal waters tonight
and with it the ifr/mvfr ceilings. Drier air from the west
associated with an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes
continues to push SE into the Mid-Atlantic states and is helping
to lift ceilings. Should see all ifr/mvfr conditions gone by 4z
with ECG being the last to see the ceilings lift. Conditions
should improve to VFR the remainder of the night as high
pressure continues to build into the region.

Northwesterly winds are expected to become gusty areawide on low
pressure deepens off the New England coast on Friday. Despite
some 6k - 7k ft clouds on Friday, VFR conditions will prevail
through the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to cross the
region on Sunday, but with little moisture, just expect to see
some scattered to broken mid level clouds with this front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon analysis shows elongated low pressure off the Carolina
coast with high pressure noted over the NE Gulf Coast. Winds locally
are N 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with
3-4 ft likely near the mouth. Seas are highest (4-6 ft) across the
southern waters with 3-5 ft N.

Low pressure lifts NE offshore tonight. Steepest pressure gradient
and strongest winds will be across the southern coastal waters this
evening, spreading northward tonight. Gale Warnings remain in place
offshore with Small Craft Advisories for the remaining waters. 12z
guidance and local wind probabilities continue to trend downward
with respect to sustained gale conditions in the Ches Bay. That
said, am still expecting a 3-6 hour period where gusts average 30-35
kt tonight, especially for the northern bay zones as low pressure
lifts northward. The pressure gradient will slacken quickly Friday
morning with 20-25 kt offshore and 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay.
Westerly winds 15-20 kt persist into the afternoon and an extension
of the river SCAs may be required as deeper mixing over land areas
potentially bleed into higher gusts for the rivers. Wave heights in
the bay peak tonight at 3-5 ft while seas offshore increase to 5-7
ft before slowly falling off in the offshore flow on Friday. Expect
all waters to fall below their respective SCA thresholds by Friday
evening. High pressure builds into the region for the weekend but a
series of low amplitude disturbances aloft may allow for scattered
showers across the northern waters Saturday. A front drops southward
and stalls into early next week, bringing the potential for
additional showers but winds/waves/seas are expected to remain below
SCA thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

Flood Warning now in effect for Meherrin River at
Lawrenceville. With lighter rainfall amounts over the
headwaters, forecasts have accordingly come down a bit with this
latest model cycle. That said, we continue to monitor river
levels, with greatest concern for Meherrin River at Emporia,
Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the Nottoway River
(mainly at Sebrell by this weekend). Northern forecast points
briefly bump into action stage tonight into Friday along the
Appomattox River from Farmville to Matoaca. See water.noaa.gov
for site-specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-638.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652-654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...