FXUS61 KLWX 200106
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
906 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track well to our north today, causing a cold
front to move through later tonight. High pressure will build
into the area for this weekend into early next week. Low
pressure will track to our north on Wednesday, causing another
cold front to move through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front that extends southward from an area of low
pressure near James Bay is just entering far western portions of
the forecast area this evening. Over the course of the night,
this front will spread eastward across the area, clearing
southern Maryland just prior to daybreak. A few showers are
currently located in the vicinity of the front across western
MD and the WV Panhandle. These showers should spread eastward
with the front over the course of the night, giving all
locations a chance for a quick shower or two. Overall, coverage
of the showers is rather unimpressive, so rainfall totals are
expected to be minimal, and much of the night should stay dry in
any given location. Outside of any showers, skies should remain
cloudy. Winds will initially be light out of the southeast, but
turn northwesterly later in the night behind the front.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 30s in the
mountains to the low-mid 50s to the east of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will continue to depart well off to our north
tomorrow. Post cold frontal northwesterly flow will gradually
cool and dry out the boundary layer over the course of the day.
Skies will start out mostly cloudy, but gradual clearing is
expected as drier air works into the area. Seasonable
temperatures are in the forecast, with highs generally in the
60s to lower 70s for most (50s in the mountains). Winds may gust
to around 20 to 30 mph out of the northwest during the
afternoon.
Areas of low pressure will pass by both to our north and south
Saturday night through Sunday night, with a narrow ridge of high
pressure in place locally. Conditions will remain dry, with a
mix of sun and clouds through that time. It will be cooler
Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s for most. Some
patchy frost may also be possible Saturday night or Sunday
night in sheltered valleys to the west of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region kicks off the beginning of the
work week on Monday with a weak shortwave passing to our south.
Tuesday will also be dry to start before high pressure moves
offshore and low pressure with an associated cold front approaches
from the west. Rain chances expand NW to SE across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday and exiting by Wednesday night. Another area of
high pressure moves in behind it.
With the tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and the
high pressure on the front and back ends of the system, gusty winds
are likely during the day Tuesday through Wednesday night, and
possibly lingering into Thursday. Southerly winds on Tuesday could
gust up to 20-25 kt. Stronger NW gusts are likely behind the cold
front on Wednesday during the day, up to around 25-30 kt.
Dry conditions continue Thursday into Friday with the next chance
for precipitation approaching Friday night into the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal on Monday in the 50s and 60s, and
warm to above normal Tuesday into Wednesday with the southerly flow.
Highs on Wednesday will depend on the timing of the cold frontal
passage as temps drop behind it. As such, expect it cooler on
Thursday before moderating into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ceilings are MVFR this evening at most terminals, with MRB
holding IFR and BWI rising up to VFR. Flight conditions should
hold relatively steady tonight. A cold front will move through
during the second half of the night. The front may be
accompanied by a few showers. Winds will shift from light out of
the southeast to northwesterly behind the front later in the
night. VFR conditions and increasing northwesterly winds are
expected during the day tomorrow. Winds may gust to around 20-30
knots during the mid- late afternoon hours. Lighter west to
northwesterly winds and VFR conditions are expected on Sunday.
VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions
prevail with NW flow Monday becoming southerly and gusty on Tuesday,
up to around 20-25 kt. As a cold front approaches Tuesday night,
showers and possible sub-VFR conditions move into the forecast area
but likely don't reach the terminals until Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are currently sub-SCA level over the waters. A cold front
will move through later tonight, causing winds to turn
northwesterly in its wake. SCAs are in effect tomorrow afternoon
into tomorrow evening as winds pick up in northwesterly flow.
There also may be a 1-2 hour period immediately in the wake of
the front around daybreak tomorrow where winds get close to SCA
levels in northwesterly flow. Sub- SCA northwesterly winds are
expected on Sunday.
Northwest winds on Monday are expected to remain below SCA criteria
and become southerly Monday night into Tuesday morning. As low
pressure approaches the area, gusty southerly winds on Tuesday will
likely exceed SCA criteria by the afternoon, and continue overnight
and into Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have drastically increased today, causing water
levels to rise rapidly. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect
during the upcoming tidal cycle for DC/Alexandria, King
George/Charles, Calvert, Baltimore, and Harford Counties, with
Coastal Flood Warnings in effect for Anne Arundel and St. Mary's
Counties. Water levels will likely remain elevated through the
tide cycle tonight as well, and additional headlines may be
needed. Anomalies should finally start to decrease late tonight
into tomorrow as winds turn northerly and then eventually
northwesterly, allowing water to drain out of the Bay.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...KJP/CAS
MARINE...CAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP