FXUS61 KPHI 191854
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
254 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region tonight, then continues to
track south and east of the region through the weekend. High
pressure builds in from the west and will be over the area into the
middle of next week. A cold front passes through on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure to close out the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers are beginning to move into the the Lehigh Valley this
afternoon as a pre-frontal shortwave approaches. Showers will
gradually diminish as they move toward the I-95 corridor before
another batch of showers closer to the front moves through
overnight. Otherwise, it will remain overcast through the rest
of the day as weak onshore flow funnels in moisture under an
inversion. Rainfall amounts up to two tenths of an inch are
possible, so not expecting anything impactful overall. Can't
rule out some patchy fog tonight, especially along the coast
and within the higher elevations of NW NJ and the southern
Poconos. Temperatures overnight won't drop too much, hovering in
the mid to upper 40s.
The cold front moves offshore tomorrow morning, and shower
chances end within the coastal plain by the late morning. Skies
should clear out relatively quickly as dry air moves in, and we
will see the sun for the first time in days. It will be a much
welcomed sight, and the afternoon looks rather nice with mostly
sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions for the local area for the Short Term period. The
cold front continues to track to the south and east of the Mid-
Atlantic through the weekend, but the tail end of the front will
extend back through the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast. High pressure
builds over the region for the weekend and start of the new work
week. Low pressure develops on that old front and will begin to push
the front back north as a warm front, but the system will stay well
south of the region, and any rainfall on Sunday will stay south of
Delaware.
Chilly temperatures in place. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
around 60 on Sunday, and then in the low to mid 60s on Monday. Lows
generally in the 30s to low 40s. There may be some patchy frost in
the southern Poconos late Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Elongated high pressure along the East Coast slides out to sea
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure approaching from the
west will drag a cold front through the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday, bringing at least a chance for area-wide showers across
the region during that time, though will also carry likely PoPs for
areas north and west of the I-95 corridor.
Temperatures moderate to near normal levels ahead of this front with
highs generally in the mid and upper 60s. Behind the passage of the
cold front, cold air advection will be underway, and highs drop back
into the upper 50s and low 60s Thursday before rebounding on Friday.
One thing to look out for is the potential for frost development
late Monday night and Tuesday morning, mainly for the southern
Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Lows will drop into the low to
mid 30s with light winds and Max RH values around 70 percent. Will
carry patchy frost for those areas.
Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will drop into the 30s for
most areas. It is too soon to determine if conditions will promote
frost development.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of Today...MVFR CIGs with no visibility restrictions
expected. Winds out of the southeast around 5-10 kt. High
confidence.
Tonight...Ceilings lowering into the IFR range for the most
part (the exception being KABE/KRDG who are right on the
MVFR/IFR border). Rain will generally be light for areas that do
see showers, so not expecting much in terms of visibility
restrictions. Outside of KACY, visibility of 5 miles or less has
a probability of 20-40% after midnight, so can't rule it out
entirely. Have higher confidence in reduced visibility at KACY.
This in part due to the potential for some marine fog coming
onshore in addition to the scattered showers. Winds out of the
south/southeast around 5 kt, becoming west/northwesterly late
tonight once the cold front moves through. Moderate confidence
overall.
Saturday...MVFR CIGs to start, lifting to VFR by the late
morning as skies clear out. West/northwest winds around 10 kt
with some spots seeing gusts near 20 kt. Moderate confidence
overall.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR conditions until Tuesday
night, then possible sub-VFR conditions in SHRA Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all ocean zones through
tonight as seas will be around 5 to 6 feet. On the Delaware Bay,
no marine headlines are expected. Some marine fog is possible.
Will wait to see how things develop before issuing a Marine
Dense Fog Advisory. Periods of showers likely at times for
tonight and tomorrow morning.
For tomorrow, no marine headlines expected anywhere as seas will
be around 3 to 4 feet and winds out of the west/northwest around
10-20 kt.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...Tranquil conditions for most of
the new week, then VSBY restrictions in showers Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions Saturday night through Tuesday
night, and then potential SCA conditions Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Will go ahead and issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the eastern
shores of Maryland. It is now around the time of high tide, and
some minor flooding is possible.
Spotty minor tidal flooding was observed within some of the
back bay communities of Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE
this morning. Some minor tidal flooding remains possible through
tomorrow morning around high tide within Barnegat Bay. Tidal
flooding is not expected oceanside for any communities.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
MDZ012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ015-
019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich/MPS