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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KRLX 281521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1121 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails today. Mid level disturbance brings rain
across the north, switching to upslope snow across the northeast
mountains tonight into Friday morning. Dry but windy Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1120 AM Thursday...

Few low level diurnal cu clouds developed late this morning.
Expect afternoon clouds to dissipate around sunset. Previous
forecast remains on track.

As of 705 AM Thursday...

The forecast is on track.

As of 245 AM Thursday...

A dry day is on tap today with high pressure nearby to the
southwest. There is enough low level moisture in place, though,
for stratocumulus in cold advection upslope flow ahead of the
high, mainly in and near the mountains. Dry advection and
cessation of cold advection should allow these clouds to break
up later this morning, mainly after sunrise.

In the meantime, high clouds associated with a southern stream low
pressure system along the east coast will move east, out of the
area this afternoon, as the low moves offshore.

As the mid-upper level short wave trough associated with the
coastal low moves south of the area today, and then offshore
tonight, a northern stream mid-upper level short wave trough
crosses the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight.
This will be followed by warm advection in what becomes fast,
deep layer west to northwest flow once the short wave passes
tonight.

The warm advection will re-introduce stratocu across northern
portions of the area overnight tonight, and even rain and snow
showers in the northern and central mountains with cloud top
temperatures around -12C up around h7. There could even be rain
showers or sprinkles out across the northern lowlands before
dawn Friday.

The surface pressure gradient will increase across southern
portions of the area tonight, but the height gradient aloft will
tighten up throughout the area. This could lead to wind gusts
approaching 40 mph across the highest ridges toward dawn Friday.

Central guidance temperatures appeared to be on or close, with
highs a little below normal today, and lows near normal
tonight. With the return of dry weather, RH values drop into the
20s this afternoon, amid a bit of a breeze and drying fuels,
which lowered toward 10 percent Wednesday, before rising well
into the teens overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

There remains a slight chance for some snow showers along the
mountains early Friday, but no accumulations are expected as low
temperatures won't be cold enough for very long in the morning
to allow for abrupt or instantaneous accumulation.

Models show a deepening, negative tilt trough off of the Mid-
Atlantic/New England coast. There will also be an area of surface
high pressure to our southwest which will continue to move into the
area keeping us dry and mostly clear Friday afternoon. The
combination of these two pressure gradients will create breezy
to gusty conditions across the forecast area Friday. Conditions
will be particularly gusty across the mountains where gusts will
likely reach advisory criteria.

Temperatures still look to be in the mid to high 60s across the
lowlands with cooler 50s and lower 60s across the mountains. Friday
night's lows drop back into the 40s, with some 30s possible across
the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

The long-term period looks to be quite uniform as it will be
characterized by wet weather and warm temperatures, most if not,
each day starting Saturday. This can be owed to a few swift moving,
flat wave disturbances that will move through this weekend, followed
by a strong cold front that will move through Wednesday.

Rainfall chances arrive Saturday late morning into the afternoon,
but QPF looks light as rainfall will be more showery in nature.
Rainfall will increase in earnest come Monday as a stationary front
will move over the area allowing for more widespread coverage in
rainfall, as well as chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 AM Thursday...

MVFR stratocumulus associated with cold advection upslope low
level flow, impacting terminals in and near the mountains, BKW,
EKN and CKB, was slowly breaking up, with CKB already lifting
above 3 kft, BKW improving to VFR around 13Z and EKN around
14Z, as dry advection starts to out pace the waning cold
advection.

Temperature advection will then become neutral today, and then
warm advection tonight. This will re-introduce stratocu
overnight tonight. In the meantime, VFR conditions are expected
today into tonight.

Northwest surface flow will be a bit gusty at times today,
veering to west tonight, still gusty in the mountains. This
will again preclude nocturnal fog formation. Light northwest
flow aloft today will become moderate northwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of loss of MVFR ceilings at EKN and
BKW may vary early this morning, as may its return overnight
tonight at EKN and CKB where a rain or snow shower could occur
toward dawn Friday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Building high pressure will bring a mainly dry finish to the work
week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values
lower into the 25-30 percent range across the lowlands and 25 to
45 percent range across the mountains this afternoon, but under
a generally light breeze as fuels continue to dry. Fuel
moisture lowered toward 10 percent Wednesday, before rising well
into the teens overnight. The NFDRS fuel moisture forecast for
today is up around 10 percent for the lowlands and in the teens
in the mountains.

Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative
humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers
returns this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM

FIRE WEATHER...