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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCHS 161142
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
742 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland surface trough will strengthen through tonight. A
cold front will move into the area mid week before stalling and
then moving north as a warm front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Unsettled weather is expected to expand northward over the
region today as mid level troughing becomes more pronounced with weak
500 MB short waves lining up from the Carolinas to east central
GA by late day. Deep moisture to the tune of 2.25 inch PWATs will
gradually advect northward with an enhanced 850 MB theta-e
advection/convergent zone noted along or just north of the
Savannah River zones between 18Z and 21Z. Upper level progs even
show some decent upper difluence in GA zones later today. We
think all of these factors in combination with modest deep
layered instability, will spell numerous showers and tstms along
and to the west of I-95. Severe weather parameters are
unimpressive but the potential for locally heavy rainfall is
certainly there, especially from the Savannah/Beaufort areas
west into inland GA. Storm motions appear to increase from the
WSW during the afternoon, but any storms that favor parallel
boundaries could be a focus for localized heavy rain concerns.
High temps are expected to warm to near 90 prior to convective
initiation. The drier air that has been over the Charleston area
northward is in retreat mode and we have chance POPs by mid
afternoon as the deep moisture builds up from the south.

Tonight: Diurnal convection should decrease in coverage after
sunset but there is enough weak upper forcing to keep chance POPs
going through the overnight for just about all areas as deep
moisture persists. Potential for renewed nocturnal convection
looks to impact parts of coastal SC in the overnight. Another
elevated tide around midnight along the coast and scattered
convective rains may be a complicating factor. Clouds will
prevail across the region with readings in the mid/upper 70s for
much of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid levels will consist of an amplifying trough over the East
Coast on Tuesday, with it's southern extent reaching into the
Southeast. The amplifying trend will continue into Wednesday with
the trough axis hugging the coast. Thursday the trough will get
shoved offshore as ridging builds from the Great Lakes region into
the TN Valley, generally leaving our area with nearly zonal flow. At
the surface, a trough will be inland Tuesday. Tuesday night a cold
front will approach from the northwest. The cold front is forecasted
to overspread our area by Wednesday afternoon and then become
stationary. This stationary front will generally meander around our
area into Thursday. Moisture will be plentiful. Models show PWATs
exceeding 2.25" across our entire area on Tuesday. SPC climatology
indicates these values are near record for CHS for this time of
year. These high values appear to be pushed south and offshore
Wednesday and Thursday with the arrival of the stationary front.
Though, this will be dependent on the exact location of the front.
Values ~2" should remain across our area both of these days. We
continue to forecast likely POPs each afternoon as showers are a
good bet. Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Despite lift from the front and plenty of moisture, instability
remains the limiting factor. BLCAPEs barely approach 1,000-1,500
J/kg Tuesday afternoon with minimal DCAPEs. Wednesday the instability
appears to increase with BLCAPEs approaching 1,500- 2,000 J/kg
along with pockets of decent Showalter values. Additionally,
DCAPEs appear to increase. But this is highly dependent on the
exact location of the front. Thursday the instability seems to
tick slightly lower, indicating the front may be just south
and/or offshore of our area. Again, this instability is highly
dependent on the location of the front and the models vary a
decent amount with each run. The result is chance thunderstorms
with a low severe threat. The main concern continues to be the
rainfall potential. The deep moisture and slow storm motions
resulting from light steering winds higher up should allow for
periods of heavy rain. Local flooding is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stationary front will hover over the region Thursday night.
The stationary front will transition into a warm front and then move
northward on Friday. A trough is expected to develop inland over the
weekend while another cold front slowly approaches. The end result
will be a rainy weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS: VFR through 12Z Tuesday. Potential for a late afternoon
shower/tstm remains too low for a TAF inclusion as the bulk
of the convection is forecast to impact coastal locations to the
south. Later tonight, a weak short wave and increased deep level
moisture may result in some nocturnal convection. Models are
split at 06Z on how this plays out and we opted to wait for
later cycles to intro if needed.

KSAV: Models continue to focus a diurnal convection around the
terminal this afternoon and with high likely POPs in the forecast,
we introduced tempo tstms with periodic flight restriction in
convective rains centered around 18Z-22Z time frame. Some high
resolution models keep storms around even longer with erratic
storm motions. Overnight, VFR is likely with convection likely
either remaining offshore or to the northeast of the terminal.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A front will bring unsettled weather and
periodic restrictions through Friday. The best chance will be in the
afternoon/evening due to showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A light south to southwest flow was developing this morning and
will persist today with speeds below 10 kt until late in the
day when we see a slight uptick in deep layered wind fields
over the region. Tonight, moist southwest flow will average 10
to 15 kt with seas 2 to 3 ft. The main risk through tonight
appears to be a significant increase in coverage of showers and
storms tonight, some producing very heavy rains and frequent
lightning.

Extended Marine: A cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday and Tuesday night, causing the pressure gradient to
become enhanced. Expect increased winds from late Tuesday
afternoon through the first half of Tuesday night. Wind gusts
could approach 20 kt beyond 10 nm. Some gusts could approach 25
kt across the northeastern portion of the Charleston waters. But
the areal coverage will be so small that a Small Craft Advisory
is unlikely. The front will become stationary across our area
Wednesday and Thursday and then transition into a warm front and
move northward on Friday.

Waterspouts: Conditions may be quite favorable waterspout
formation off the far southern SC and GA coasts this morning
but we will need to wait until morning CAMs and visible
satellite imagery shows evidence of the risk.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical influences and onshore winds will produce elevated
tides again tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible again,
mainly along the South Carolina coast and downtown Charleston
in particular.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...