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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KCHS 221510
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1010 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves
inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday
morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the work
week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Today: A vertically stacked cyclone will move NE through
Nebraska and Missouri, with it's associated cold front will ride
east toward the Tennessee valley and through the NW Gulf. As
this occurs it forces a large Atlantic ridge and it's associated
short wave ridging over and near the local area further into
the ocean, supplying us with a deep S-SW flow throughout the
vertical.

While there is still a poorly defined coastal trough just
offshore, the bulk of the models continue to over-predict the
coverage of showers with this feature as it lifts onshore and
dissipates. We did add mention of isolated showers off the
Charleston County coast, with maybe a few sprinkles over parts
of Charleston and Berkeley to still occur. But given very
shallow moisture and as much as a 10-15F dew point depression,
we do not expect any measurable rainfall over land areas today.

Isentropic ascent will produce increasing stratocumulus clouds
that either advect onshore and/or develop, while considerable
cirriform clouds will also occur in response to a coupled upper
jet moving through the SE. Despite average sky coverage of
60-80%, strong warm advection with 850 mb temps reaching 10-11C
will allow for highs to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. The
exceptions will be along the coast where onshore flow will limit
highs to around 60F north and mid 60s south.

There is a small area of sea fog hugging the coast from near
Sapelo to the Altamaha River entrance and southward. Some of
this will spread northward as winds veer to the S-SE this
afternoon, and could reach near Tybee Island toward dark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight: The region will be fully embedded within the warm
sector overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front looks to remain west of the region through the day, but
will likely be approaching the far western zones around daybreak
Tuesday. A warm and increasingly moist airmass will hold in
place through the night as deep-layered forcing ahead of a
powerful upper low propagating across the Middle Mississippi
Valley overspreads the Southeast States. This will support a
swath of rain with embedded tstms ahead of the cold front with
isolated, isentropically induced shower activity developing out
well ahead of the wind shift. Likely pops around 60% will be
maintained for most areas early Tuesday, but higher pops may
eventually be needed. Increasingly wind fields within the warm
sector will prevent temperatures from dropping too much with
lows only dropping to around 60 within a well mixed boundary
layer. The record low minimum at the Charleston Airport could
be challenged.

Surface instability will be quite limited, but guidance shows
Showalter values becoming slightly negative (as low as -1C) as
the night progresses. This coupled with the degree of deep-
layered lift throughout the column could support at least
isolated tstms, so a slight chance of tstms will be included.
Increasing dewpoints over the cooler Atlantic shelf waters could
support some sea fog over the nearshore waters, some of which
could brush areas along/east of the Highway 17 corridor in South
Carolina. A mention of "patchy fog" will be included to trend.

Tuesday: The cold front will move through the region in the morning.
Any remnant showers will quickly get pushed offshore as high
pressure builds in from the west in the afternoon and overnight
hours, bringing drier conditions and clearing skies. The increased
sunshine and some downslope flow should help to offset the initial
cool advection, allowing temperatures to rise well above normal,
especially near the coast. Breezy winds will also develop behind the
front in the afternoon. Additionally, wind gusts could briefly
approach 25 kt for Lake Moultrie. Cold air advection becomes more
dominant at night and that combined with the mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to drop quite a bit from the daytime highs.
However, they are still expected to be near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday: Surface high pressure will dominate.
Other than some high clouds associated with a short wave, dry
conditions are expected. Despite mostly sunny skies, weak cold air
advection will limit highs to near normal, with overnight lows a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will prevail Thursday night into Friday, bringing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Models are in excellent
agreement showing a strong cold front approaching from the west
Saturday, then moving through the region on Sunday. Given the great
agreement, we have POPs gradually increasing on Saturday, then rain
highlighted on Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
not out of the question, but we're still several days out.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will remain low-end VFR, maybe occasionally high-end
MVFR today at both KCHS and KSAV. Risk for low clouds will
increase this evening as low-level jetting strengthens. Rain is
expected to reach KSAV by 07z and KCHS by 09z. Some light
showers could reach KSAV as early as 03z, but no vsbys impacts
are expected. Again, limited any vsby restrictions in the rain
to MVFR for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected behind a cold
front on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The local waters will lie under the western portions of
extensive Atlantic high pressure, with the anticyclonic
circulation only marginally interrupted by n ill-defined coastal
trough that dissipates this afternoon. While this is initially
keeping winds NE and E closer to shore, winds will veer to S-SE
all waters this afternoon. Speeds on average will be no higher
than 10 or 15 kt, with limited seas at or less than 2 ft.

Satellite images showing sea fog near Sapelo Island and the
mouth of the Altamaha River, and some of this will spread
further north through the afternoon as winds veer around,
perhaps reaching near the entrance of the Savannah River late. A
Marine Weather Statement has been issued to mention the fog and
address the concern for locally dense fog.

Tonight: The risk for sea fog will continue, if not slightly
increase later in the evening, as dewpoints rise even more and
low-level trajectories favor increasing parcel residence times
over the cold shelf waters. Speeds will increase to 15-20 kt
with seas building to 2-4 ft, highest over the Georgia offshore
leg. Seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds,
although it could be close beyond 40 nm closer to daybreak.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A cold front will move through the waters
in the morning. Continental high pressure will build in from the
west during the day and overnight. Cold air advection behind the
front combined with an enhanced pressure gradient will lead to
increased winds and seas in the afternoon and evening hours. We may
need Small Craft Advisories for AMZ350 and 374 along with the
Charleston Harbor. Conditions will improve overnight as the gradient
lessens.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimums for 23 January:
KCHS: 62/1999
KCXM: 66/1937
KSAV: 65/1937

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service until further notice.
Repairs are ongoing. Adjacent radars include: KLTX, KCAE, KJGX,
KVAX and KJAX.

The Downtown Charleston observation site (CHLS1/KCXM) remains
out of service until further notice.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...


FXUS62 KCHS 221549
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1049 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves
inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday
morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the work
week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We have opted to include a slight chance of showers, mainly over
the northern half of Charleston County and far E-SE Berkeley
County. Satellite pictures showing an enhancement of cumulus
clouds, and now both KLTX and KCAE showing returns. This is in
response to the poorly defined coastal trough. Most places
though will stay rainfree given large dew point depressions.

Today: A vertically stacked cyclone will move NE through
Nebraska and Missouri, with it's associated cold front will ride
east toward the Tennessee valley and through the NW Gulf. As
this occurs it forces a large Atlantic ridge and it's associated
short wave ridging over and near the local area further into
the ocean, supplying us with a deep S-SW flow throughout the
vertical.

Isentropic ascent will produce increasing stratocumulus clouds
that either advect onshore and/or develop, while considerable
cirriform clouds will also occur in response to a coupled upper
jet moving through the SE. Despite average sky coverage of
60-80%, strong warm advection with 850 mb temps reaching 10-11C
will allow for highs to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. The
exceptions will be along the coast where onshore flow will limit
highs to around 60F north and mid 60s south.

There is a small area of sea fog hugging the coast from near
Sapelo to the Altamaha River entrance and southward. Some of
this will spread northward as winds veer to the S-SE this
afternoon, and could reach near Tybee Island toward dark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight: The region will be fully embedded within the warm
sector overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front looks to remain west of the region through the day, but
will likely be approaching the far western zones around daybreak
Tuesday. A warm and increasingly moist airmass will hold in
place through the night as deep-layered forcing ahead of a
powerful upper low propagating across the Middle Mississippi
Valley overspreads the Southeast States. This will support a
swath of rain with embedded tstms ahead of the cold front with
isolated, isentropically induced shower activity developing out
well ahead of the wind shift. Likely pops around 60% will be
maintained for most areas early Tuesday, but higher pops may
eventually be needed. Increasingly wind fields within the warm
sector will prevent temperatures from dropping too much with
lows only dropping to around 60 within a well mixed boundary
layer. The record low minimum at the Charleston Airport could
be challenged.

Surface instability will be quite limited, but guidance shows
Showalter values becoming slightly negative (as low as -1C) as
the night progresses. This coupled with the degree of deep-
layered lift throughout the column could support at least
isolated tstms, so a slight chance of tstms will be included.
Increasing dewpoints over the cooler Atlantic shelf waters could
support some sea fog over the nearshore waters, some of which
could brush areas along/east of the Highway 17 corridor in South
Carolina. A mention of "patchy fog" will be included to trend.

Tuesday: The cold front will move through the region in the morning.
Any remnant showers will quickly get pushed offshore as high
pressure builds in from the west in the afternoon and overnight
hours, bringing drier conditions and clearing skies. The increased
sunshine and some downslope flow should help to offset the initial
cool advection, allowing temperatures to rise well above normal,
especially near the coast. Breezy winds will also develop behind the
front in the afternoon. Additionally, wind gusts could briefly
approach 25 kt for Lake Moultrie. Cold air advection becomes more
dominant at night and that combined with the mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to drop quite a bit from the daytime highs.
However, they are still expected to be near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday: Surface high pressure will dominate.
Other than some high clouds associated with a short wave, dry
conditions are expected. Despite mostly sunny skies, weak cold air
advection will limit highs to near normal, with overnight lows a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will prevail Thursday night into Friday, bringing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Models are in excellent
agreement showing a strong cold front approaching from the west
Saturday, then moving through the region on Sunday. Given the great
agreement, we have POPs gradually increasing on Saturday, then rain
highlighted on Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
not out of the question, but we're still several days out.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will remain low-end VFR, maybe occasionally high-end
MVFR today at both KCHS and KSAV. Risk for low clouds will
increase this evening as low-level jetting strengthens. Rain is
expected to reach KSAV by 07z and KCHS by 09z. Some light
showers could reach KSAV as early as 03z, but no vsbys impacts
are expected. Again, limited any vsby restrictions in the rain
to MVFR for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected behind a cold
front on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The local waters will lie under the western portions of
extensive Atlantic high pressure, with the anticyclonic
circulation only marginally interrupted by n ill-defined coastal
trough that dissipates this afternoon. While this is initially
keeping winds NE and E closer to shore, winds will veer to S-SE
all waters this afternoon. Speeds on average will be no higher
than 10 or 15 kt, with limited seas at or less than 2 ft.

Satellite images showing sea fog near Sapelo Island and the
mouth of the Altamaha River, and some of this will spread
further north through the afternoon as winds veer around,
perhaps reaching near the entrance of the Savannah River late. A
Marine Weather Statement has been issued to mention the fog and
address the concern for locally dense fog.

Tonight: The risk for sea fog will continue, if not slightly
increase later in the evening, as dewpoints rise even more and
low-level trajectories favor increasing parcel residence times
over the cold shelf waters. Speeds will increase to 15-20 kt
with seas building to 2-4 ft, highest over the Georgia offshore
leg. Seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds,
although it could be close beyond 40 nm closer to daybreak.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A cold front will move through the waters
in the morning. Continental high pressure will build in from the
west during the day and overnight. Cold air advection behind the
front combined with an enhanced pressure gradient will lead to
increased winds and seas in the afternoon and evening hours. We may
need Small Craft Advisories for AMZ350 and 374 along with the
Charleston Harbor. Conditions will improve overnight as the gradient
lessens.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimums for 23 January:
KCHS: 62/1999
KCXM: 66/1937
KSAV: 65/1937

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service until further notice.
Repairs are ongoing. Adjacent radars include: KLTX, KCAE, KJGX,
KVAX and KJAX.

The Downtown Charleston observation site (CHLS1/KCXM) remains
out of service until further notice.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...