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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KDTX 161910
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
310 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures in the low 50s accompanied by gusts near 30 mph within
well-mixed southwest flow this afternoon. Surface obs reveal a weak
cold front over northwest WI and central MN behind which
temperatures are solidly in the 40s, except 30s beneath extensive
stratus deck. A 140kt jet downstream of the amplifying western US
trough will amplify the PV anomaly presently over Lake Winnipeg,
strengthening the front and forcing it southeast through tonight.
Minimal precipitation within the dry and weakly forced environment
in advance of the front, the passage of which is forecast to occur
roughly 10-15z from the NW to SE Wednesday morning. Amplifying wave
will sweep across the peninsula in the wake of surface fropa,
deepening convective depths over the lake just as cold air begins
spreading into the area. Considered along with deep, albeit brief,
dynamic support, increased pops solidly into chc category
immediately in the wake of the front over central and western
portions of the CWA where lake enhancement will be possible prior to
veering of the wind profile after sunrise.

Wednesday will otherwise be largely dry with minimal diurnal
recovery, especially over the northwest two-thirds of the CWA, owing
to a variable coverage of stratocu over the area (best chance for
clearing in downslope areas) and ongoing cold advection. Temps will
struggle into the low/mid 40s north of about M59 and will likely be
falling everywhere by 18z. A few afternoon convective cores are
plausible as the back edge of the trough moves through during peak
heating. Any locally intense core could produce a few flakes along
and north of the terrain after 21z, but coverage is forecast to be
sparse and larger scale support will be waning by this time anyway.
Maintained chc pops for -RASN in the Thumb to account for stray
Superior-Michigan lake effect potential lingering into the evening.

Expansive polar high translates off the Front Range into the Ohio
Valley by Wednesday night. A secondary surface trough will bring
renewed cold advection during the first half of the night further
lowering 850mb temps to below -10C followed by an increased
likelihood for decoupling during the second half of the night,
especially over western portions of the area. This will be the final
advertised freeze of the season as temps fall into the 20s over most
of the area.

Strongly confluent northwest flow aloft will ensure clear or mostly
clear skies, save for some high cirrus, on Thursday while return
flow around the gradually departing surface high lags until late in
the day. Deep mixing within the resident cold airmass will set the
stage for temps for an appreciable diurnal jump with highs forecast
to touch 50 degrees within diminished westerly flow. Emerging return
flow by Thursday night will support stagnant or rising temps,
especially west of the ridgeline.

A strong pressure gradient is expected to set up across the Great
Lakes in response to low pressure centered over northern Ontario and
a strong high pressure centered over Carolinas. As a response,
breezy southwest flow gusting between 20 - 30 mph will help push
temperatures into the 50s for a daytime high on Friday. Cyclonic
flow will take hold late Friday into Saturday as an amplified upper-
level trough digs in across the Midwest. This thermal trough will
diminish h850 temperatures below the 0C mark and will also bring the
chance for a cold lake effect drizzle Saturday morning and afternoon
as CAA ramps up across the warmer Great Lakes waters. Additionally,
mechanical mixing from the increase in cooler air aloft will allow
gusts between 20 - 30 mph to persist during daylight hours. Uniform
northwest from from the surface up to the mid-levels will continue
to bring in cold, Canadian air, dropping h850 temperatures to an
average of -7C by Sunday at 18Z. As a result, daytime high
temperatures will be capped in the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday
and down into the low to mid 40s by Sunday.

Upper-level flow will turn more zonal for the early part of next
week which will moderate temperatures, capping highs in the low to
mid-50s by Tuesday. On and off precipitation chances will be for the
early-half of next week, however, too much discrepancy is noted
between model runs at this time to pinpoint timing and location.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwest gales over the open waters of Lake Huron have settled down
to around 30 knots during the early morning. The wind will now shift
southwest and increase again into the 35 to 40 knot gale range
through today affecting mainly Saginaw Bay along with central and
northern Lake Huron. Gale Warnings remain in effect through this
evening for Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron north of Harbor Beach. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for all other marine areas through
western Lake Erie.

Gales subside to gusts around 30 knots by mid evening through the
overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes in the vicinity of the
cold front moving through the central Great Lakes. However, wind
veers and strengthens Wednesday with northwest gales possible once
again. Given the lengthy break tonight, and some uncertainty on
timing and magnitude Wednesday, a Gale Watch has been issued for
central and northern Lake Huron for Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
High pressure then builds into the Ohio valley and southern Great
Lakes for a short time through Thursday before the active weather
pattern resumes with another strong cold front Friday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

AVIATION...

Strong southwest flow (15-20 KTS gusts 25-30KTS) this afternoon
ahead of a cold front, which will come through dry with the limited
moisture in place, and expecting mainly just mid/high clouds through
early evening. Good post frontal cold advection late this
evening/tonight should allow for low VFR clouds to overspread
southeast Michigan, with brief/transient high MVFR cig possible,
especially if any isolated snow/rain showers develop with the steep
low level lapse rates and Lake Michigan enhancement. West-northwest
winds behind the front, with gusts aoa 20 knots during the daytime
hours of Wednesday.

For DTW...Strong southwest winds this afternoon, gusting 25-30
knots, will lose the gustiness toward near sunset, but still
probably sustained 10-15 knots through most of the night and shifting
to the west-northwest after 9z Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium to high for cig aob 5000 feet tonight and tomorrow.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ362-363-462.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ443.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ361-463.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ441-442.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC/AM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF


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