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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KDTX 160913
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
513 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions this morning within a moist pre-frontal environment
sustained under modest southwest winds. Blossoming high based
diurnal cu field into the afternoon as a pre-frontal trough lifts
into the region. Thunderstorm potential will subsequently increase
through the afternoon period as this boundary and a cold front track
across SE Michigan. Confidence in development remains high enough to
maintain a defined mention centered on the mid and late afternoon
periods.  Cooler and drier conditions will accompany a post-frontal
wind shift to northwesterly during the evening hours.  This will
effectively end the thunderstorm risk, while bringing clearing skies
across the lowest 5000 ft.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for cigs aob 5kft this afternoon.

* Medium for thunderstorms between 19Z and 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

DISCUSSION...

Main story for today will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
across much southeast Michigan during the afternoon and evening
hours. A low pressure system swinging across Ontario throughout the
day will drag an associated cold front through Michigan. There will
be favorable diurnal timing of the front as it crossing through the
Tri-Cities during the afternoon and far southeast Michigan by late
evening. Placement of the jet will also provide some upper level
support for convection along the cold front. The best forcing will
be across the Thumb and Saginaw Valley where greater heights falls,
better 0-6 km shear of 25-30 knots and lapse rates around 6 C/km
reside. Hot and humid conditions ahead of the front will aid
instability as MLCAPE values increase to around 1500-2000 J/kg. Moist
environment can also be characterized by precipitable water values
reaching 1.50 inches and up to 1.90 inches throughout the day. Given
this environment, isolated severe storms will be possible across
much of the CWA today with SPC placing all of southeast Michigan in a
Marginal Risk. Main threat will be strong to potentially severe wind
gusts from stronger storms with soundings showing inverted V
profiles in the afternoon. Localized heavy rainfall will also be
possible due to the higher atmospheric moisture. There is one
limiting factor across southern portions of the CWA and that is the
presence of some mid level capping with temperatures of 8-10 C around
700 mb. This may act to inhibit greater coverage potential in these
areas.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s for most
locations with increased cloud cover keeping temperatures from
reaching any higher. This should be the last day of the work week
with heat indices in the low to mid 90s before northwest winds behind
the front help push the higher moisture out and bring in lower
dewpoints. Dry air behind the front will help overnight drop to into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

High pressure builds across the Great Lakes Tuesday through midweek
with cooler and drier northwest flow aloft. This will allow for
mostly sunny conditions and more seasonable high temperatures
ranging in the mid 70s to low 80s. Mostly clear skies will allow for
good radiational cooling and the lower dewpoints will help overnight
lows on Tuesday night dip down into 50s with the exception of the
urban heat island of Detroit metro.

A low pressure system will become organized across the northern
plains and meander eastward through the Great Lakes late this week
through the weekend. A little too early to hash out exact details,
but the system looks to bring unsettled weather conditions with
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday and
into the weekend. Temperatures look to remain in the 70s and 80s
during this time.

MARINE...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected during the afternoon
and early evening hours as a cold front tracks through the central
Great Lakes. Modest southerly winds through the daylight period,
then turning northwesterly tonight behind the front. Some increase
in wind speeds will occur overnight through Tuesday, but with gusts
at 20 knots or less. Winds ease Wednesday under building high
pressure. This high will sustain tranquil marine conditions through
Thursday.

HYDROLOGY...

Moist conditions will exist today as a cold front advances across
the region. This will bring a greater chance for showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. While basin average
rainfall amounts will likely remain below one half an inch,
localized higher amounts in excess of one inch will be possible
within bands of heavier thunderstorms. Some minor flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas may result.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR


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