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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KILN 161926
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
326 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep dry weather across the region through
Thursday. A cold front will bring a chance of showers on Friday.
Cool conditions are expected Saturday when a trough in the upper
atmosphere is forecast to cross the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Surface analysis shows the ILN area between high pressure to
the southwest and low pressure over the Northern Great Lakes. No
precip is expected from the weakly forced and moisture starved
regime. Sky cover consists of cirrus forming on moist ascent
on the northern fringe of an atmospheric river most evident on
Channel 9 of GOES East. Models show the cirrus sagging south
tonight as a batch of short wave energy pushes in from the
northwest. It remains to be seen if this will occur since it
appears to go against current satellite trends.

Overnight lows in the upper 30s to around 40 will be 5 degrees
below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect dry weather to continue Wednesday as mid level short wave
energy moves to the Eastern Great Lakes followed by surface
high pressure building from the west. Clouds may increase in
northern locations during the day closer to the short waves.
Look for below normal highs ranging from the low 50s north up
to the upper 50s south. Gusts over 20 mph from the west will be
observed Wednesday afternoon as the high pushes toward the area.

Clearing skies and calm winds are forecast for Wednesday night
as the center of the 1036 mb surface high moves closer. As lows
reach the low and mid 30s toward Thursday morning under
conditions favorable for radiational cooling, frost may form.
Will continue mention frost in the HWO, with headlines possible
from later shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwest flow with a large area of high pressure building into the
region Thursday. Expect a cold start to the day with widespread
frost Thursday morning. Dry and cold airmass will offer a good
amount of sunshine with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal,
with highs generally in the lower 50s.

The surface high will slide east of the area with a low level
southerly flow developing Thursday night into Friday. Moisture
will increase Friday into Friday night ahead of an approaching cold
front. The best chance for rain will occur across the far southeast
counties, where will continue to allow categorical pops to develop.
Cool temperatures will persist with highs Friday from the mid 50s
northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

Northern stream amplifies with mid level trof developing over the
Great Lakes this weekend. A secondary cold front will drop south
thru the area Saturday offering a reinforcing shot of cold air in
breezy conditions. A broad trof over the area, northwesterly flow,
and favorable flow off Lake Michigan will result in clouds and a few
rain showers changing to snow showers/flurries acrs the north
Saturday night. After highs in the mid 50s, expect Saturday nights
lows generally in the mid 30s.

Cold surface high pressure to build across the area Sunday into
Sunday night. Expect Sundays highs only in the upper 40s to near 50.

Mainly clear skies and light winds Sunday night will result in the
potential for freezing temperatures. Expect lows in the upper 20s to
the lower 30s.

Low level flow backs southwesterly allowing some moderation to
temperatures Monday. Expect highs generally in the middle 50s.

A mid level shortwave to drop through the broader scale trough over
the eastern U.S. with another front dropping thru the Ohio Valley
late Monday night/early Tuesday. Not much moisture with this system,
so have limited pops to slight chance across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions to continue in a dry airmass, with no precip or
obstructions to visibility expected. Extensive cirrus clouds
forming along the edge of a vast atmospheric river of moisture
should sag southward overnight in response to a trough crossing
the Great Lakes. CMH LCK and DAY may experience a few hours of
LLWS in the tightening pressure gradient associated with the
trough. BR is not in the forecast tonight due to winds staying
above calm. VFR persists Wednesday as high pressure starts to
build back in from the west. Winds gusting over 20 knots from
the west are likely Wednesday afternoon in the strengthening
circulation around the high.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday
afternoon and night with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio