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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KILN 192332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
732 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A mid-level trough will move east of the region today, as
surface high pressure envelopes the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
by tomorrow. Warming conditions are expected through the
weekend, continuing into early next week. Low pressure moving
south of the area will bring a chance of rain on Monday.


Northwest winds 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt will relax
as the sun sets this evening under clear sky conditions.

As drier air is brought into the region, temperatures will cool
relatively quickly tonight. A freeze warning remains in effect
for the area currently active in the program, with temperatures
forecast in the lower 30s. It is possible the freeze may be
marginal (around 32 degrees) in some of the southern ILN
counties, especially as winds will not completely die off
tonight, but per collaboration with surrounding offices there
was no strong intention to remove the warning.


An expansive area of surface high pressure will be moving into
the region on Friday, with its center expected to be in southern
Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. This air mass is expected to be
very dry, with precipitable water values of around two tenths of
an inch. Despite the cool northerly flow, the dry conditions and
full sun should allow a decent warm-up from the freezing
conditions of the early morning -- with max temps forecast to be
in the middle to upper 50s. To note, this is still below normal,
but it also represents the start of a more consistent warming
trend. With as dry as things are through the atmosphere, the
surface dewpoint forecasts could be too high, especially with
decent mixing under full sun. Thus, Td values were adjusted
downward slightly from the model blend during the afternoon.
Temperatures were similarly adjusted upward by a degree or two.
With a weak pressure gradient, however, winds should remain in
the 5-15 MPH range.

Winds will become even weaker heading into Friday night, where
radiational cooling conditions should be fairly ideal. Another
round of frost/freeze headlines could be necessary, but the
warmer starting point (possibly negating a freeze) and dry
conditions (possibly negating frost) make this a low confidence
suggestion as of now.


First half of the extended period will see benign weather has a
large surface high pressure system settles over the midwest. Friday
is looking mostly sunny with temperatures rising to the the lower to
mid 50s.

High clouds will begin to increase on Saturday as upper level
moisture is forecast to still over the H5 ridge. Highs will push
into the mid to upper 50s.

Over the weekend, models push an upper level low out of the southern
Rockies and into the southern Mississippi Valley. The upper low
begins to fill as this occurs.  Due to the southern track, the
precipitation stays south of the region through the weekend. highs
on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

As the models eject what is left of the low to the East Coast on
Monday, some of the precipitation is pulled north into the region.
Models are showing differences in how much and exactly where the
pcpn will be, but there is enough certainty to put some low PoPs in
the forecast for Monday into Tuesday.

By Wednesday and H5 s/w drops down from the nrn Mississippi Valley.
It merges with the initial upper low to bring additional chances of
rain. Highs will generally be in the 60s for early next week.


VFR conditions will prevail for the forecast period as a
significantly drier airmass works into the Ohio Valley. Early
evening winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt in some locations will die
out in the next 2-3 hours and turn north and drop to under 8kt
before midnight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.


OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ060>065-
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-


NEAR TERM...Franks/Hatzos