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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KILN 161040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
640 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Thunderstorms will develop today ahead of a cold front which
will push through the area tonight. A drier and cooler airmass
will build in for the middle of the week.


A few light showers have developed in the south as weak
disturbances in the upper flow interact with the unstable
atmosphere over the region.

A broad H5 weakness will swing through the western Great Lakes
today. Associated with the s/w is a cold front. As diurnal
heating begins today, expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the unstable airmass ahead of the front. Dewpoints
will be in the lower to mid 70s. There should be enough
instability for CAPES to reach 2000-3000 J/kg. Kept the highest
PoPs in the eastern half. Went likely in those locations.
Farther west went with high chance PoPs. Highs should push
into the mid to upper 80s.


Tonight, precipitation chances will be highest at the beginning
of the period and will decrease with the loss of daytime
heating. Meanwhile as the cold front pushes through the region,
convection will end from northwest to southeast.

By 12Z Tuesday, the front will be lingering in the southeast
counties. An isolated shower will be possible early Tuesday
morning. High pressure will gradually build in on Tuesday.
Dewpoints will gradually lower throughout the day. Highs on
Tuesday will range from the lower 80s in the north to the mid
80s in nrn KY.

Dewpoints will continue to dry out Tuesday night as the high
pressure settles into the region. Lows Tuesday night will drop
to 60-65.

On Wednesday, the surface high will be centered over the Great
Lakes. Skies will be mostly sunny and highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.


High pressure will remain in place for several days. This air
mass will be a little cooler and drier than the last one,
characterized by dewpoints in the lower 60s (Wednesday and
Thursday) and max temps in the lower to mid 80s. In an air mass
that will be generally dry (with precipitable water values under
an inch) and capped, no precipitation is expected during this

A return to southerly flow is expected on Thursday night into
Friday, as the surface high moves east of the region, and a
deepening shortwave moves into the area from the northern plains.
There is high confidence in this overall amplification to the
pattern, which has been shown through several model cycles. There is
less confidence in the strength of the mid-level wave, and the
closed mid-level low that both GFS/ECMWF projections suggest will
develop out of it. There has definitely been a trend toward a slower
and deeper solution, which will keep the ILN CWA in a regime of
cyclonic flow and occasional precipitation chances through next
weekend. The forecast has been trended in this direction, with PoPs
increased for Saturday and Sunday. The temperature forecast for
Friday/Saturday/Sunday will be kept conservatively in the lower to
mid 80s, with expectations of increased moisture and precipitation
in the area. These values are slightly below climatological


Mean upper level trough will cross the region this afternoon
with a more definitive shortwave cutting south of the region
near Louisville early this morning. Downstream flow from this
area would have storms lift northeastward towards Cincy metro
area before noon. Thunderstorms will be possible anywhere this
afternoon as daytime insolation brings additional energy to
give any preexisting storms a kick start with daytime heating.

Cigs around 10-12kft will be undercut by a 3-4kft deck today,
occasionally constituting a ceiling at the MVFR/VFR interface.
Expect MVFR cigs and vsbys to be a possibility where any storms
occur, but models continue to be very widely interspersed with
placement of rain today. Expect future shifts to amend forecast
when and if storms become more apparent or are able to be
tracked to a downstream terminal.

With the loss of daytime heating, activity should diminish
rapidly overnight, and the cold frontal passage will occur 7-9z,
marking the shift to a northerly wind and definitive end to any
lingering showers or dissipating thunderstorms that may be
present. Rapid clearing will occur overnight as well, but cloud
cover could hang tougher at KILN and KCMH/KLCK, clearing more
towards daybreak.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible in TSRA on Friday.




LONG TERM...Hatzos