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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KILN 201950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
250 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

A weak weather disturbance will push east across the region
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night bringing the chance for a
few showers. Dry conditions are then expected through Friday
before another disturbance results in a slight chance for
showers on Saturday.


Surface high pressure will continue to shift east to the
Carolinas through tonight. This will allow for the pressure
gradient across our area to remain and help to keep winds from
totally decoupling overnight. We should continue to see some
cirrus at times tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid


A mid/upper level trough axis will pivot east across the Great
Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models have continued to
trend a little farther south with this feature. While the deeper
moisture will remain fairly marginal, there may be enough for
some scattered shower activity to develop through late
afternoon across mainly our northwest. A chance of showers will
then swing east across much of the rest of our area through the
evening hours, with the best chance being across our north.
Southerly flow ahead of this should help push temperatures up
into the upper 40s and 50s for highs on Tuesday. As a result,
any pcpn should remain mainly rain showers. however, as some
cooler air starts to work in behind the system, forecast
soundings are suggesting perhaps a brief mix across our north
before the pcpn ends.


Period will feature a lack of strong forcing and deep moisture,
probably resulting in below normal precip.

High pressure and dry weather will be moving in on Wednesday behind
a cold front, pushed by a broad northwest flow aloft. Though the
atmosphere will be dry overall, clouds may increase Wednesday night
until the axis of an upper trough moves through on Thursday. Expect
mainly clear conditions Thursday night and Friday as the high
settles to the North Carolina coast.

For Friday night and Saturday, a rather potent surface low over
Southern Canada, driven by a sharp upper trough, is forecast to push
a cold front to the Ohio Valley, bringing increasing clouds and a
chance of showers. A few snow flurries may mix in toward the end of
the event on Saturday night. High pressure and dry air are expected
to follow the cold front for Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will vary with respect to advection patterns associated
with the cold fronts. Chilly readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Wednesday behind the first cold front are expected to rise through
the 40s on Thursday and Friday before reaching the lower 50s on
Saturday under gradual but persistent warm advection on a southwest
flow.  After the next cold front passes Saturday night, look for
highs mainly in the 30s Sunday and Monday due to cold advection on a
northerly flow.


A weak mid level disturbance will shift east across the region
tonight. The airmass is dry with this feature but a
strengthening low level jet associated with it, could lead to
some LLWS later tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




LONG TERM...Coniglio