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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KILN 221457
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will swing through the Ohio Valley today bringing
showers and a chance of thunder this afternoon into the evening.
Colder air will filter back into the region tonight and Tuesday.
A weak upper level disturbance will offer a slight chance of a
snow shower Wednesday. High pressure will then bring dry
conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Deep mid level low over KS to lift nne into the mid MS VLY by
evening. Associated sfc low will become vertically stacked with
cold front pushing east across ILN/s FA this evening. Band of
pre-frontal showers associated with axis of forcing from low
level jet will push into the western counties late this morning
and then across the area this afternoon. Have timed this band of
showers with a period of categorical pops.

Models solutions continue to show marginal boundary layer
instability early this evening, so have continued a slight
chance of thunder for a few hours early this evening.

Temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal today, with
highs from the mid 50s northwest, to the mid/upper 60s in the
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will sweep east across the region this evening.
There are differences with how much post frontal pcpn there will
be. Kept PoPs likely for the evening, before dry slot works
into the area. The precipitation will diminish and then
redevelop late as wrap around associated with the H5 low
develops. It looks like critical thicknesses will remain warm
enough for any precipitation tonight to be liquid. Temperatures
will fall tonight, reaching the upper 30s in the west to the
lower 40s in the east by morning.

On Tuesday the closed upper low will eject out through the lower
Great Lakes. A strong wly flow behind the cdfnt will bring
strong cold air advection. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 with
gusts into the mid to upper 30 mph range. Temperatures will be
near steady in the west with some warming possible in the
southeast. Went with highs in the upper 30s in the northwest, up
to the mid 40s in the southeast. A mix of rain and snow showers
will develop across the area associated with the lift from the
passing upper low.

The storm system will continue to pull away Tuesday night. Some
lingering light pcpn is possible in the evening. Temperatures
will drop back into the mid to upper 20s.

On Wednesday, a quick moving H5 s/w will swing through the
region in a fast zonal flow. Lift from this s/w could produce
some light snow showers, with the best chances across the north.
Will continue to carry 20 PoPs in the north and added a mention
of some flurries farther south. It looks like highs will only
make the 35 to 40 degrees range for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Broad surface high pressure will move east into the area for
the second half of the week, as the upper pattern gradually
switches from troughing to ridging over the eastern half of the
CONUS. This will bring dry conditions and gradually warming
temperatures through Friday.

Behind the departing surface high, and with troughing developing
over the plains, moist flow from the Gulf is expected to move into
the Ohio Valley again over the weekend. Overall model agreement in
this pattern remains strong across several GFS/ECMWF runs, though
GFS ensemble plots suggest the depth/timing of the upstream trough
is perhaps a source of inconsistency in exact timing and placement
details for the incoming rainfall. So, without getting into
specifics that far out, conditions appear warmer than normal with
rain expected -- with a cold front eventually cooling things off at
the tail end of the long term forecast period going into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are found over the region this morning until a
line of showers pushes through in the early afternoon in western
TAF sites, later afternoon at CMH/LCK. MVFR cigs and vsbys are
expected as the line of showers pushes through. After the back
edge of the showers moves by in the evening, winds will shift
southwesterly with the cold air behind the front. A slight
chance of some embedded thunderstorms is possible at CVG/LUK
between 0z and 3z, but this has been left out attm given
expected improving conditions and lower chances of rain.

Cigs in the cold air behind the front will remain in the MVFR
category for the rest of the forecast, and scattered showers
with generally VFR vsbys will remain possible overnight but are
not expected to be the general wx and have not been put in the
forecast.

Wind shear to 45 and 50kt through 2kft is expected this morning,
with rapid improvement once the shower activity commences after
about 19-20z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely through Wednesday. MVFR vsbys are
possible Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Franks