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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KILN 281805
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will lead to dry conditions and slightly
below normal temperatures today. A few sprinkles will be
possible tonight as a weak warm front moves into the region. Dry
and warmer conditions are expected on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly clear skies will continue through the morning hours as
surface high pressure shifts off to our southeast. A developing
weak warm front will nose into our area from the west later this
afternoon, leading to an increase in mainly some mid level
cloudiness. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with
afternoon highs ranging from the lower 50s north to the mid 50s
in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The weak warm front will remain across northern portions of our
area through tonight. Moisture will be somewhat limited, but
with some weak isentropic lift associated with the boundary,
suppose it will be tough to rule out some sprinkles or spotty
light rain showers tonight, mainly to the north of the Ohio
River. Any pcpn should taper off late tonight into early Friday
morning as we begin to dry out and the better lift shifts off to
our east. Lows tonight will be in the 35 to 40 degree range. In
developing WAA on Friday, temperatures will climb into the 60s
through the afternoon across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Friday evening, surface high pressure will be centered over
the southeastern states, as heights continue to rise over the
Ohio Valley. This period of quiet weather will be short-lived,
as the broad ridging through the region flattens into more of a
zonal flow pattern. As early as Saturday morning, a more active
weather pattern will be setting up across the Ohio Valley, and
this will continue through the remainder of the extended
forecast period.

The first chance for precipitation will occur early Saturday
morning, as a shortwave and weak surface low move through the
Great Lakes. This will be accompanied by an increase in WSW flow
in the 925mb-850mb layer. This activity will primarily impact
the northern half of the ILN CWA. As a surface front trails this
feature and settles into the ILN CWA, some additional
development will likely occur further south on Saturday
afternoon and evening. A frontal zone will likely remain in
place across the region for the following day or two, and as
renewed warm advection aloft overspreads the boundary,
additional precipitation will likely develop by Sunday morning
and even into Monday. Confidence in this scenario is fairly high
for Saturday, then only medium for Sunday and Monday. What does
look certain is that there will be continued chances for
showers and perhaps some thunderstorms through this entire
period. In terms of hazardous weather, repeated rounds of rain
could lead to some concern for flooding, especially with an
environment that will be anomalously moist for late March into
early April. Both instability and wind shear appear marginal,
though a few strong storms could also occur, particularly
Monday. Timing for any threat for stronger convection is very
uncertain, with multiple potential rounds of activity from
Saturday through Monday.

By Monday, the surface frontal boundary will likely be making
some northward progress, and Monday appears to be the warmest
day of the period -- with highs ranging from the lower 60s in
the northern ILN CWA to mid 70s in the southern ILN CWA. Still
some model differences on just how far the surface boundary will
move northward, so this temperature forecast is only medium
confidence at best.

Tuesday will be an even more active day, as a deeper trough
ejects out of the central CONUS and into the Great Lakes. A
surface low will also track through the area, bringing a renewed
focus for activity -- with stronger forcing through the depth
of the troposphere. The common elements across the model suite
include cold frontal passage some time late Tuesday into Tuesday
night, the potential for some better-defined convection near or
ahead of this front, and the eventual development of a closed
low over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, there are still
significant differences in the strength of the trough and the
depth of the surface low. Both of these factors will impact the
eventual forecast for the strength of convection. At this point,
while confidence is low, this does look like a setup that could
produce some severe weather somewhere in the Ohio Valley region
on Tuesday -- in addition to Monday, as mentioned earlier in
this discussion.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface high pressure ridge will continue to pivot southeast
through early evening. Westerly winds between 8 and 12 knots
with local gusts around 20 knots can be expected. There will be
a mix of cumulus and altocumulus clouds, all VFR. Winds will
temper down after 00Z Friday.

For tonight, a weak warm frontal boundary will develop across
central Indiana and central Ohio. A low level jet impinging on
this boundary, combined with some moisture, will bring a chance
of showers near the KDAY/KCMH/KLCK terminals between 03Z and
09Z. Conditions should remain VFR despite some possible
measurable precipitation. Borderline non convective LLWS
conditions could occur near KCVG/KLUK, but confidence is not
there yet to include in the terminals yet.

By Friday morning, the low level jet will have shifted off to
the east/southeast, ending the shower threat. The weak boundary
will remain across the north with some surface ridging located
along and south of the Ohio River. Conditions will be dry with
VFR conditions. Winds will increase from the west again, with
some local gusts up to 20 knots possible after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.
MVFR/IFR conditions along with a chance of thunderstorms
possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman