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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 260326 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
926 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH A COUPLE ROWS OF
COUNTIES TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM WILLMAR TO ST PAUL AND SOUTH. THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NORTHERN BATCH OF SNOW OVER
NORTH DAKOTA WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BATCH PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN BATCH ENERGIZING AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS MOST OF EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 21Z SREF HAS SHIFTED NORTH TO COME INTO
LINE WITH THE NAM AND GFS...AND THE HI-RES MODELS OF
HOPWRF...HRRR...AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP IN BRINGING THE
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM JUST NORTH OF MANKATO INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TWIN CITIES SUBURBS. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THIS
ENERGIZED BATCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SOME TIME DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW TO
AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES. SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP CUT OFF TO SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OVER
FAR WESTERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE QPF FROM THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TODAY ON HOW FAR EAST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW (3+") WILL GO ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE H7 LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL BASICALLY PASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN LATE TONIGHT...A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MN DURING THIS SAME TIME. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE MUCH MORE
QPF SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE...WHICH IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH IS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE MORE SEPARATION
IN THE QPF...WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FOCUSED FROM WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ITS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PAST FIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE
SHOWN THE MID LEVEL LOW SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH TIME WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
THE 15Z SREF IS BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THIS IDEA...SHOWING THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (60-80 PERCENT) FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF IN 12 HOURS FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A FINGER OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES POINTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TWIN CITIES METRO.
HENCE...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR 3+ INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
WITH SOME HINT THAT THE HEAVIER SNOW COULD GET A LITTLE MORE TO
THE EAST...THE ADVISORY REACHES ACROSS MCLEOD AND SIBLEY COUNTIES.
KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHFIELD TO
ALBERT LEA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
TRYING TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WAA INCREASES. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW
COVER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES THE PUSH PULL WEATHER PATTERN WITH BRIEF
WARM UP/COOL DOWNS. THE INITIAL WAVE EXITS EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN WITH WAA DRIVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A GENERAL 2-3 INCH SNOW IS LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94.  THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA.  DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD WARM THROUGH THE
30S AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
MODEL TIMING ISSUES...WITH THE GFS FASTER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
WILL MOVE TOWARDS A SLOWER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR NOW...WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. BETTER FORCING AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION...IF IT DOES DEVELOP..COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL
IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRIVE HOLIDAY TRAVEL FOR THE AREA.  COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND DRIVES WARMER AIR BACK NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...BUT
LOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA. LOTS OF REPORTS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NODAK IN MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THIS BATCH
OF SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING...BUT THE BATCH TO THE SOUTH
OVER SODAK WILL KEEP PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD SEE RWF EXPERIENCE
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WEDNESDAY IS THE
BIGGEST CAUSE FOR UNCERTAINTY. SOME MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN
SECTION REINVIGORATING OVER CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING STC...MSP...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE RNH WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN
SECTION WEAK. EITHER SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH IT THIS EVENING.

KMSP...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT FOR MSP WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR A MORE
TROUBLESOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...LEADING TO SERIOUS ISSUES. KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TACT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE ASSESSING THE SITUATION THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. NW 4-8 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ059-060-062-068>070-076-077-084-085-093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ054-
     056>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF