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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 240459
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1059 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Weak high pressure was moving eastward, and southerly flow had
developed across the entire forecast area. Some parts of west
central MN are now gusting around 15 mph as the western trough
approaches and gradient increases. Increasing winds will spread
into Wisconsin tonight and gradient will keep winds steady
overnight in the 5-15 mph range, but eastern MN and western WI may
have a few hours of somewhat light winds early this evening.
Therefore low temps tonight will be coolest from the St Cloud and
Mille Lacs area to Eau Claire and Ladysmith, where lower 30s are
possible. Farther west and south, upper 30s are likely, and
probably even lower 40s in favored spots of west central and
southwest MN. With increasing winds and warm air advection, temps
will likely be this evening and have continued the non-diurnal
trend for later tonight.

Short wave in Alberta will quickly track east-southeast and it
will make its presence known by mid morning Friday with abundant
mid level cloudiness and some light rain. However the associated
jet max will be weakening slightly as it moves eastward. So there
will be some lift and some moisture but not a whole lot. And the fast
moving system means that the precip should only last a few hours
at most in any given spot. With the clouds and possible rain,
lowered the max temps by a couple degrees, but it still looks like
temps will reach the upper 40s from central MN into northwest WI,
ranging to the mid 50s in southwest MN, maybe even the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Once the short wave goes by tomorrow, upper ridging will ensue
across our area. Models do show another weak short wave in the
northern flow for Sunday, but it looks to be well north of us and
if anything, will only bring a glancing blow of cirrus north and
northeast of the Twin Cities.

The upper ridge will move across MN/WI Monday, setting up the
potential for the warmest day of November. As usual with this kind
of push pull fast pattern, however, there may well be abundant
mid and high clouds to hold temps down. Both the deterministic 12Z
GFS and ECMWF hint this may be the case, and with flattening ridge
on Monday, have not gone too crazy with max temps Monday. Still,
am looking for upper 40s from central MN and northwest WI to the
mid 50s in southwest MN. If there are few clouds, these temps will
be higher.

Once the Monday ridge departs, another northern stream upper low
is slated to move well north of the international border on
Tuesday, with a trough extending into MN/WI, but moisture is
scant and the best lift is to our north, so no pops are in the
forecast. Another northern stream short wave is anticipated for
Thursday, but once again, moisture will be limited. Minimal pops
are in the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday for central MN
into WI, but this may easily change given our fast pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions throughout. A few light rain showers are possible
as a cold front moves through on Friday. Northwest winds behind
the front could gust around 25 kts. Gusts will taper off sunset.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. A few light rain showers are possible
centered around 18Z as a cold front moves through on Friday.
Northwest winds behind the front could gust around 25 kts. Gusts
will taper off again after sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10G20 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds S at 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JRB