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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 300529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1229 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Main concern for tonight and Thursday will be a weak cold front
sagging south from Canada. Diurnal instability along the front is
sparking showers and thunderstorms along the international border
late this afternoon which will weaken as they head south across
northern Minnesota this evening with the stabilizing boundary
layer. However, a stronger shortwave will rotate southeast into
northern MN late tonight which will reinvigorate the showers
before reaching central Minnesota. This band will then continue
southeast Thursday morning, with the highest coverage likely to
be over western WI and far eastern MN. The showers may
restrengthen back into thunderstorms late Thursday morning and
afternoon across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This
band will likely be fairly narrow and rainfall amounts should not
be impressive, certainly not on a widespread basis.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Clearing skies will quickly follow for Thursday evening as high
pressure brings drier air in. Crossover temperatures will exceed 5
to 10 degrees in some places (lows Thursday night minus Thursday
afternoon dew points) which is a great indication for fog. This is
especially the case in Wisconsin. However, winds just above the
boundary layer will remain 10 to 15 kts which could mitigate the
density or coverage somewhat. If wetting rain is widespread
enough a few locations may become dense. Included patchy or areas
of fog in the grids after 1 am.

The rest of the period will feature a largely zonal flow, with
heights gradually building across the southern tier of states.
This will lead to warmer temperatures each day locally with light
southerly flow also bringing increasing moisture. Much of the
shortwave energy remains confined to southern and central Canada,
but cannot rule out some disorganized thunderstorm activity
midweek with the hotter and more humid airmass. Highs by next
Tuesday and Wednesday may break back into the 90s as dew points
approach 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR conditions tonight, with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front passes through the
region. The highest coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be
in western WI late Thursday morning and early afternoon. Winds
will be northwest with gusts 15 to 20 kts behind the front. These
gusts will taper off after sunset.

Right now it appears that thunderstorms will develop over or just
to the southeast of the Twin Cities metro. There will be thunder
with the storms, but did not have the confidence in coverage to
include in the taf at this time. Will see how the HiRes models
come in later tonight and may add mention of thunder in future

Fri...VFR. Wind ENE at 05kt.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE at 05kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE at 10kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...