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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 250600
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY FIRING UP SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN SODAK AND
WESTERN QUARTER OF OUR CWA. USED A COMBO OF HRRR...GFS40 305K
SFC...AND THETA E ADVECTION TO PAINT PICTURE OF FORWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN TO CONTEND WITH OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THUS AM EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT PCPN FOR THIS FIRST WAVE
OF ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH K INDICES AND 850 LI'S INDICATING LITTLE
CHANCE OF THUNDER ATTM...DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED CHANCE MOST
AREAS INTO TOMORROW AFTN DUE TO FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING NOTED ON
CURRENT 0.5 REFLECTIVITY. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASE MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT
25/15Z TIME FRAME...AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NE
MINNESOTA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO INCREASE SATURDAY'S
HIGHS BY ONE CATEGORY CONSIDERING LIMITED PCPN POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEFINITELY
NOTED OVER FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
VIA 250MB WEAK TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE OVER THIS REGION. LEFT SLGT
POPS OVER REMAINDER OF CWA TOMORROW AFTN DUE TO FAIRLY ROBUST
850-500MB LAPSE RATES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THETA E ADVECTION BLOSSOMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN BOTH GFS AND NAM MODELS FORECAST A
SHORTWAVE TO CARVE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MN WHERE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
PERSIST.

YET MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON MEMORIAL
DAY...AND CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE
HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH...AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 75 TO
80 DEGREE RANGE. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO YIELD AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES...WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOUSING
RAINFALL EVENT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND THE DEGREE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT
ENSUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IF THE 24.12Z GFS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROGS WERE TO
PAN OUT...THERE WOULD BE A FAIRLY HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REFINE OVER THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

BATCH OF WARM ADVECTIVE SHOWERS WORKING INTO WI TO START THE
TAF...BUT DRY AIR IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS TOLL...WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. LLJ STARTING TO ORGANIZE INTO ERN
NEB AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LAY INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED
IDEA OF HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER
THE MN/WI BORDER SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 10Z...WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT TSRA ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH OF MN THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REMAINING INTO THE MORNING...WITH BOUTS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MN...SO DID KEEP SOME VCSH MENTION GOING.
OTHER CHANGE TO THESE TAFS WAS TO START SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL OF
MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY. BASED TIMING ON THE RAP/HRRR/NAM...WHICH
SHOW MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE NEB NOT ARRIVING INTO
THE RWF AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO 18Z. WITH WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY
DOWN ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER TODAY...EXPECT MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS
TO STAY DOWN IN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MVFR CIGS NORTH NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS A SLOW CRAWL NORTH ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING MVFR CIGS FURTHER
NORTH AS WELL. AS RESULT...DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL
AFTER 00Z FOR ALL MN TERMINALS EXCEPT RWF.

KMSP...GIVEN HOW CIGS WITH RAIN ONLY DROPPED TO 6K FT AT
BEST...FEEL CONFIDENT IN VFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TODAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH 8Z...WITH
NOT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...AS LLJ FORCING REMAINS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE FIELD. HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH THE
WARM FRONT ONLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL IA...MSP MAY REMAIN NE OF THE
MAIN MVFR CIG SHIELD THROUGH THE 30 HRS OF THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG