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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KPBZ 161121
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
721 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of heat index values in the 90s. A cold front
moves through tonight and brings scattered showers and storms
through Tuesday morning. Cooler and less humid conditions are
expected for mid week under high pressure so the windows can
opened back up.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No changes for the morning update. Storms will fire early
afternoon then its off to the races as mesoscale influences take
over. Much like yesterday heavy rain and frequent lightning are
the primary hazards. One last warm day with heat index values in
the mid 90s. Previous discussion below...

Mid level ridging should maintain mainly dry weather this
morning. This ridge should move E of the area this afternoon as
a shortwave trough and associated cold front begin to approach
from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop by afternoon as convective thresholds are met.
Moderate instability and a weak wind flow should result in
localized strong storms and locally heavy rain. Will mention
this potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Another warm
and humid day is expected with highs around 5 degrees above
average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave and associated cold front is expected to cross the
region tonight through part of Tuesday. Continued with a band
of likely POPs with its approach and passage. Waning instability
and increasing wind flow aloft should preclude a severe or
widespread flood potential.

Sfc high pressure building under a NE CONUS upper trough should
result in dry and cooler weather Tue night through Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather through Thu night. Periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to return as a
trough progged to advance ewd out of the Plains reaches the
Upper Midwest and OH Valley region late in the week through the
weekend. Temperatures are expected to average near seasonal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Medium confidence forecast as timing and placement of afternoon
and evening storms could vary.

Overall VFR weather for most of the forecast period. Any sunrise
IFR fog at ZZV and DUJ will mix out by 13Z. Scattered afternoon
storms will start to develop around 18Z. Probability of a
airport being impacted is low, but enough coverage with a cold
front approaching from the west warrants a vicinity mention in
all terminals. IFR vis restrictions are likely if a
thunderstorms hits an airfield.

As the cold front moves through during the overnight hours, can
not rule out brief MVFR weather, but for now left precip mention
out of the forecast.

OUTLOOK...
No widespread IFR weather is predicted.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$