ATM-
522:
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY
TOPIC: In this course we will discuss the main
modes of climate
variability on interannual to decadal time scales, such as ENSO, PDO,
NAO, annular
modes (AO, AAO), etc. We will review the mode dynamics, teleconnection
mechanisms, their impacts on climate, ecosystems and society, their
evolution through time (how
has the
behavior of these modes changed in the past over 2-3 centuries), and
how anthropogenic
climate change might affect future mode behavior. We will also talk
about
climate prediction on seasonal to interannual time scales (how are such
predictions made; what are their limitations?) The class
will be
a mixture of lectures, seminars, and student presentations.
INSTRUCTOR:
Mathias Vuille
ES 311
ph.: 442-4472
mathias@atmos.albany.edu
TIME AND LOCATION:
Tue & Th. 11:45am-1:05pm
B13
CREDITS: 3
TEXTBOOK: no
textbook required; we will instead read and discuss relevant papers for
each topic
PREREQUISITES:
OFFICE HOURS: by appointment
WEBSITE: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/deas/atmclasses/atm522
for pdf's
of papers and lectures go here
(password required)
FORMAT: The
class is a mixture of lectures, seminar-style discussions and student
presentations.
EVALUATION: 1) Homework
assignments (10%)
2) In-class presentation (20%)
3) Mid-term exam
(20%)
4) Research or
review paper on topic chosen by student (50%)
SCHEDULE:
The schedule is
approximate and subject to change. It will be adjusted and evolve as
the class progresses.
WEEK |
TUE |
TH |
REMARKS |
TOPIC |
READING ASSIGNMENTS |
week 1 |
31-Aug |
2-Sep |
lecture |
Introduction / Climate variability |
none |
week 2 |
7-Sep |
no class |
lecture |
Statistical considerations |
none |
week 3 |
14-Sep |
16-Sep |
lecture |
El Niño - Southern Oscillation |
McPhaden et al., (1999), McPhaden (2006) |
week 4 |
21-Sep |
23-Sep |
lecture |
El Niño - Southern Oscillation |
Collins et al. (2010),
Latif and Keenlyside (2009), Yeh et al., (2009) |
week 5 |
28-Sep |
30-Sep |
lecture |
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation |
Mantua et al. (1997), Mantua & Hare
(2002), Gedalof et al. (2002), Enfield et al.(2001), Kerr (2005),
Sutton & Hodson (2005) |
week 6 |
5-Oct |
7-Oct |
lecture |
|
Hurrell et al. (2003) |
week 7 |
12-Oct |
14-Oct |
lecture |
Arctic Oscillation / Southern Annular Mode |
Kerr (1999), Thompson & Wallace (2001), Thompson (2007), Gong & Wang (1999), Thompson & Solomon (2002), Gillett & Thompson (2003), Gillett et al. (2006), |
week 8 |
19-Oct |
21-Oct |
lecture / exam |
|
Saji et
al. (1999), Webster et al. (1999) |
week 9 |
no class |
no class |
no class |
no class |
none |
week 10 |
2-Nov |
4-Nov |
lecture / seminar |
Climate prediction |
TBD |
week 11 |
9-Nov |
11-Nov |
seminar |
topic determined by students |
papers chosen by students |
week 12 |
16-Nov |
18-Nov |
seminar / presentations |
topic determined by students |
papers chosen by students |
week 13 |
23-Nov |
no class |
presentations |
topic determined by students |
none |
week 14 |
30-Nov |
2-Dec |
presentations |
topic determined by students |
none |
week 15 |
no class |
no class |
no class |
no class |
none |