ATM- 522: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY


 


TOPIC: In this course we will discuss the main modes of climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales, such as ENSO, PDO, NAO, annular modes (AO, AAO), etc. We will review the mode dynamics, teleconnection mechanisms, their impacts on climate, ecosystems and society, their evolution through time (how has the behavior of these modes changed in the past over 2-3 centuries), and how anthropogenic climate change might affect future mode behavior. We will also talk about climate prediction on seasonal to interannual time scales (how are such predictions made; what are their limitations?) The class will be a mixture of lectures, seminars, and student presentations.


INSTRUCTOR:    Mathias Vuille
                             ES 311
                             ph.: 442-4472
                             mathias@atmos.albany.edu


TIME AND LOCATION: Tue & Th. 11:45am-1:05pm
                                         B13


CREDITS: 3


TEXTBOOK: no textbook required; we will instead read and discuss relevant papers for each topic


PREREQUISITES:
No prerequisites besides the general prerequisites for all departmental graduate courses.


OFFICE HOURS: by appointment


WEBSITEhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/deas/atmclasses/atm522

                        for pdf's of papers and lectures go here (password required)


FORMAT:
The class is a mixture of lectures, seminar-style discussions and student presentations.

EVALUATION:   1) Homework assignments (10%)
                            2) In-class presentation (20%)
                            3) Mid-term exam (20%)
                            4) Research or review paper on topic chosen by student (50%)


SCHEDULE:

The schedule is approximate and subject to change. It will be adjusted and evolve as the class progresses.

WEEK

TUE

TH

REMARKS

TOPIC

READING ASSIGNMENTS

week 1

31-Aug

2-Sep

lecture

Introduction / Climate variability

none

week 2

7-Sep

no class

lecture

Statistical considerations

none

week 3

14-Sep

16-Sep

lecture

El Niño - Southern Oscillation

McPhaden et al., (1999), McPhaden (2006)

week 4

21-Sep

23-Sep

lecture

El Niño - Southern Oscillation

Collins et al.  (2010), Latif and Keenlyside (2009), Yeh et al., (2009)

week 5

28-Sep

30-Sep

lecture

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Mantua et al. (1997), Mantua & Hare (2002), Gedalof et al. (2002), Enfield et al.(2001), Kerr (2005), Sutton & Hodson (2005)

week 6

5-Oct

7-Oct

lecture

North Atlantic Oscillation

Hurrell et al. (2003)

week 7

12-Oct

14-Oct

lecture

Arctic Oscillation  / Southern Annular Mode

Kerr (1999), Thompson & Wallace (2001), Thompson (2007), Gong & Wang (1999), Thompson & Solomon (2002), Gillett & Thompson (2003), Gillett et al. (2006),

week 8

19-Oct

21-Oct

lecture / exam


Indian Ocean Zonal Mode

Saji et al. (1999), Webster et al. (1999)

week 9

no class

no class

no class

no class

none

week 10

2-Nov

4-Nov

lecture / seminar

Climate prediction

TBD

week 11

9-Nov

11-Nov

seminar

topic determined by students

papers chosen by students

week 12

16-Nov

18-Nov

seminar / presentations

topic determined by students

papers chosen by students

week 13

23-Nov

no class

presentations

topic determined by students

none

week 14

30-Nov

2-Dec

presentations

topic determined by students

none

week 15

no class

no class

no class

no class

none