NPJ Phase Diagram - Probabilistic GEFS Forecast

This work is supported by NOAA Grant NA15NWS4680006

The NPJ Phase Diagram will be offline until Sept. 2022 while the interface undergoes upgrades

Real time | Archive | Verification | Composites | About | Andrew C. Winters

Phase Diagram (left): Shows the current position (green diamond) within the phase diagram at 00Z on the day listed in the title along with the GEFS ensemble mean forecast trajectory over the next 9 days in white. The diamonds correspond to a position in the phase diagram at 00Z on the day labeled to the upper-right of its respective diamond. The forecast probability of a point within the phase diagram lying within a radius of 0.25 PC units of the verification at any time in the 9-day forecast is shaded following the color bar on the right.

Synoptic Maps (right): Depicts GEFS ensemble mean forecasts of (1) 250-hPa wind speed, geo. heights, and standardized geo. height anomalies, (2) 500-hPa relative vorticity, geo. heights, and standardized geo. height anomalies (3) mean sea level pressure, 1000-500-hPa thickness, and 850-hPa standardized temperature anomalies, and (4) 24-h accumulated precipitation.

Deterministic Forecast | Probabilistic Forecast | Ens. Spread Forecast | D(prog)/Dt