Lance F. Bosart

September 2006

Synoptic/Dynamic Meteorology

Office: Earth Science 227

Phone: (518) 442-4564

Fax: (518) 442-4494

Email: bosart at atmos dot albany dot edu

June 1964, B.S. in Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

August 1966, M.S. in Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

June 1969, Ph.D. in Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1969-1975: Assistant Professor. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

1975-1983: Associate Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

1983-2004: Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

2004-present: Distinguished Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

I have broad research interests in planetary-scale, synoptic-scale and mesoscale meteorology. I work on a variety of multiscale (time and space) research problems that relate to the weather and climate of higher- and middle-latitude regions as well as the tropics. Research problems that involve winter storms, hurricanes, organized convective systems and the predictability of individual flow regimes are especially attractive to me. I am also interested in the weather analysis and forecasting process including forecast verification studies and the measurement and assessment of forecaster skill. My forecast-related activities have stimulated me to pursue numerous synoptic-dynamic research opportunities with my graduate and undergraduate students that have resulted in refereed publications.

I like to collaborate on research projects with other University at Albany faculty members in the synoptic-dynamic group and with colleagues at other institutions. Recent external collaborators include Peter Black at NOAA/AOML/HRD, Chris Davis and Morris Weisman at NCAR, Chris Velden at CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, Michael Montgomery at Colorado State University, Paul Reasor at Florida State University, and Ron McTaggart-Cowan at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM). I have external research support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) for studies of tropical cyclones (TCs) that includes genesis, tropical transition (TT), extratropical transition (ET), and the problem of determining where heavy precipitation associated with landfalling TCs will fall relative to the track of the storm. As part of this NSF funded research I have become involved in cooperative modeling efforts with Chris Davis of NCAR and Ron McTaggart-Cowan at UQAM on TCs that experience TT and ET. I also have support from the NSF to study bow echoes and mesoscale convective vortices as part of the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) that was held from 18 May to 7 July 2003. I am also working with Professor Daniel Keyser on another NSF-funded research project to study predictability issues associated with polar-midlatitude and midlatititude-tropical flow interactions, particularly during periods of abrupt large-scale circulation regime changes.

Additional research support is provided by COMET for joint operationally oriented research efforts with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters in Albany, NY, and the NOAA/NWS/CSTAR program support as part of a joint University at Albany and NWS cooperative research effort targeted at improving the prediction of warm- and cool-season heavy precipitation events over the northeastern US. This CSTAR-supported research effort is being done in close collaboration with a number of NWS offices in the northeastern US. I have also established a close working relationship with staff members of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma, centered on the problem of convective storm forecasting. As part of this cooperative effort I have been able to participate with several of my graduate students in the 2004 and 2005 SPC spring forecasting exercises.

My current research projects focus on observational and modeling studies of synoptic and mesoscale phenomena from a multiscale perspective. Specifically, I work with my students on a variety of research projects that seek to: (1) understand the physical processes governing the TT and ET of TCs, (2) deduce what physical processes control the evolution and distribution of heavy precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones, (3) determine what physical conditions govern the unexpected rapid intensification of TCs close to the coast, (4) understand what physical processes are responsible for the TT of a cold-core to a warm-core disturbance through real-data numerical simulations, (5) document the structure and life cycles of continental and oceanic cyclones and anticyclones, (6) explore the extent to which large-scale circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern) control the extent and structure of storms over the northeastern US, (7) determine what factors control the predictability of regime changes as defined by major changes in the NAO and PNA indices, (8) investigate how cutoff cyclones trigger damaging heavy precipitation events, (9) deduce the physical processes that control the evolution of mesoscale substructure within cyclones, (10) conduct detailed surface mesoanalyses of MCS/bow echo events during BAMEX and relate the associated surface features to storm-related circulation signatures aloft as deduced by airborne Doppler radar and other special datasets, (11) define the environmental conditions associated with a spectrum of severe weather in the northeastern US and determine the impact of regional physiography on storm structure and evolution, and (12) document the nature of convection-dominated warm season heavy precipitation and stratiform-dominated cool season heavy precipitation events in the northeastern US. These storm-associated problems are investigated through diagnostic analyses to get at the underlying dynamics and through real-data numerical simulations (e.g., MM5 and the new WRF model) that are designed to test physical hypotheses for storm development formulated from the diagnostic analyses.

I like to work with graduate students individually or cooperatively with other faculty members on a variety of research problems. Student interests can often dictate new research opportunities and directions. I also like to work with undergraduate students on research projects designed to stimulate their interest in atmospheric science. I have also been very fortunate that a number of undergraduate students doing research with me have won the American Meteorological Society Macelwane Award for outstanding research achievement in the past years.

Recent Publications: (1988 to present)

(a) published:

Orville, R. E., R. W. Henderson, and L. F. Bosart, 1988: Bipole patterns revealed by lightning locations in mesoscale storm systems. Geo. Res. Let., 15, 129–132.

Lee, T. P. J., S. R. Silberberg, and L. F. Bosart, 1988: A case study of a severe winter storm in the Middle East. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 61–91.

Bell, G., and L. F. Bosart, 1988: Appalachian cold air damming. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 137–161.

Branick, M. L., F. Vitale, C.-C. Lai, and L. F. Bosart, 1988: The synoptic and subsynoptic structure of a long-lived severe convective system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1335–1370.

Bosart, L. F., and A. Seimon, 1988: A case study of an unusually intense atmospheric gravity wave. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1857–1886.

Lai, C.-C., and L. F. Bosart, 1988: A case study of trough merger in split westerly flow. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1838–1856.

O'Handley, C., and L. F. Bosart, 1989: Subsynoptic - scale structure in a major synoptic - scale cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 607–630.

Bell, G., and L. F. Bosart, 1989: The large scale atmospheric structure accompanying New England coastal frontogenesis and associated North American cyclogenesis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115, 1133–1146.

Landin, M. G., and L. F. Bosart, 1989: The diurnal variation of precipitation in California and Nevada. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1801–1816.

Bell, G., and L. F. Bosart, 1989: A 15 year climatology of Northern Hemisphere 500 mb closed cyclone and anticyclone centers. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2142–2163.

Oravec, R. J., and L. F. Bosart, 1990: A case study of the environmental structure of a non cold air damming anticyclone event during project GALE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1289–1307.

Trunk, T. J., and L. F. Bosart 1990: A radar echo climatology during project GALE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 459–469.

Gaza, R. S., and L. F. Bosart 1990: Trough merger characteristics over North America. Wea. and Forecasting, 5, 314–331.

Bosart, L. F., 1990: Degradation of the North American radiosonde network. Wea. and Forecasting, 5, 527–528.

Rogers, E., and L. F. Bosart, 1991: A diagnostic study of two intense oceanic cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 965–996.

Sanders, F., L. F. Bosart, and C.-C. Lai, 1991: Initiation and evolution of an intense upper-level front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1337–1367.

Bosart, L. F., and J. A. Bartlo, 1991: Tropical storm formation in a baroclinic environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1979–2013.

Bosart, L. F., and D. B. Dean, 1991: An analysis of surface features associated with cyclonic redevelopment to the west of tropical storm Agnes in June 1972. Wea. and Forecasting, 6, 515–537.

Bosart, L. F., and F. Sanders, 1991: An early-season coastal storm: Conceptual success and model failure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 2832–2851.

Bosart, L. F., C.-C. Lai, and R. A. Weisman, 1992: A case study of heavy rainfall associated with weak cyclogenesis in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2469–2500.

Kessler, R. W., L. F. Bosart, and R. S. Gaza, 1993: Analysis of the maximum temperature warm bias of the National Weather Service H0-83 Hygrothermometer at Albany, New York. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 215–226.

Bell, G. D., and L. F. Bosart, 1993: A case study diagnosis of the formation of an upper level closed cyclonic circulation over the eastern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1635–1655.

Bosart, L. F., and J. W. Nielsen, 1993: Radiosonde penetration of an undilute cumulonimbus anvil. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1688–1702.

Bleck, R., H. Bluestein, L. Bosart, W. Edward Bracken, T. Carlson, J. Chapman, M. Dickinson, J. Gyakum, G. Hakim, E. Hoffman, H. Iskenderian, D. Keyser, G. Lackmann, W. Nuss, P. Roebber, F. Sanders, D. Schultz, K. Tyle, and P. Zwack, 1993: Eighth cyclone workshop scientific summary, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada, 12-16 October 1992. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1361–1373.

Keshishian, L., L. F. Bosart, and W. E. Bracken, 1994: Interior North American inverted trough formation and cyclogenesis: A Climatology and case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 565–607.

Bell, G. D., and L. F. Bosart, 1994: Midtropospheric closed cyclone formation over the southwestern United States, the Eastern United States, and the Alps. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 791–813.

Evans, M. S., D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and G. M. Lackmann, 1994: A satellite-derived classification scheme for rapid maritime cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1381–1416.

Bosart, L. F., and M. G. Landin, 1994: An assessment of thunderstorm probability forecasting skill. Wea. and Forecasting, 46A, 522–531.

Bosart, L. F., C.-C. Lai, and E. Rogers, 1995: Incipient explosive marine cyclogenesis: Coastal development. Tellus, 9, 1–29.

Hakim, G. J., L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser, 1995: The Ohio valley wave-merger cyclogenesis event of 25-26 January 1978. Part 1: Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2663–2692.

Emanuel, K., D. Raymond, A. Betts, L. Bosart, C. Bretherton, K. Droegemeir, B. Farrell, J. M. Fritsch, R. Houze, M. LeMone, D. Lilly, R. Rotunno, M. Shapiro, R. Smith, and A. Thorpe, 1995: Report of the first prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1194–1208.

Bosart, L. F., and G. M. Lackmann, 1995: Post-landfall tropical cyclone reintensification in a weakly-baroclinic environment: A case study of hurricane David (September 1979). Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3268–3291.

Roebber, P. J., and L. F. Bosart, 1996a: The contributions of education and experience to forecast skill. Wea. and Forecasting, 11, 21–40.

O'Handley, C., and L. F. Bosart, 1996: The impact of the Appalachian mountains on cyclonic weather systems Part I: A climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1353–1373.

Bosart, L. F., G. J. Hakim, K. R. Tyle, M. A. Bedrick, W. E. Bracken, M. J. Dickinson and D. M. Schultz, 1996: Large-scale antecedent conditions associated with the 12-14 March 1993 cyclone ("Superstorm '93") over Eastern North America. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1865–1891.

Hakim, G. J., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1996: The Ohio valley wave-merger cyclogenesis event of 25-26 January 1978. Part II: Diagnosis using quasigeostrophic potential vorticity inversion. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2176–2205.

Schumacher, P. N., D. J. Knight, and L. F. Bosart, 1996: Frontal interaction with the Appalachian mountains. Part I: A climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2453–2468.

Roebber, P. J., L. F. Bosart, and G. J. Forbes, 1996: Does distance from the forecast site affect skill? Wea. and Forecasting, 11, 583–589.

Roebber, P. J., and L. F. Bosart, 1996b: The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value: A real world analysis. Wea. and Forecasting, 11, 544–559.

Lackmann, G. M., L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser, 1996: Planetary- and synoptic-scale characteristics of explosive wintertime cyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2672–2702.

Dean, D. B., and L. F. Bosart, 1996: Northern Hemisphere trough merger and fracture characteristics: A climatology and case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2644–2671.

Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, L. F. Bosart, G. J. Hakim, M. A. Bedrick, M. J. Dickinson, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The 1993 Superstorm cold surge: Frontal structure, gap flow, and tropical impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 5–39.

Stewart, T. R., P. J. Roebber, and L. F. Bosart, 1997: The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 205–219.

Lackmann, G. M., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1997: A characteristic life cycle of upper-tropospheric cyclogenetic precursors during the experiment on rapidly intensifying cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2729–2758.

Dickinson, M. J., M. A. Bedrick, L. F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, G. J. Hakim, D. M. Schultz, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The March 1993 superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic-and convective-scale slow interaction and model performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3041–3072.

Roebber, P. J., and L. F. Bosart, 1998: The sensitivity of precipitation to circulation details. Part I: An analysis of regional analogues. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 437–455.

Fritsch, J. M., R. A. Houze Jr., R. Adler, H. Bluestein, L. Bosart, J. Brown, F. Carr, C. Davis, R. H. Johnson, N. Junker, Y.-H. Kuo, S. Rutledge, J. Smith, Z. Toth, J. W. Wilson, E. Zipser, and D. Zrnic, 1998: Quantitative precipitation forecasting: Report of the Eighth Prospectus Development Team, U. S. Weather Research Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 285–299.

Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: Planetary- and synoptic-scale signatures associated with Central American cold surges. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 5–27.

Bosart, L. F., W. E. Bracken, and A. Seimon, 1998: A study of cyclone mesoscale structure with emphasis on a large-amplitude inertia-gravity wave. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1497–1527.

Schultz, D. M., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: The effect of large-scale flow on low-level frontal structure and evolution in midlatitude cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1767–1791.

Lupo, A. R., and L. F. Bosart, 1999: An analysis of a relatively rare case of continental blocking. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 107–138.

Gyakum, J. R., L. F. Bosart, and D. M. Schultz, 1999: Tenth cyclone workshop meeting summary, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada, 22-26 September 1997. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 285–290.

Lackmann, G. M., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1999: Energetics of an intensifying jet streak during the experiment on rapidly intensifying cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2777–2795.

Koppel, L. L., L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser, 2000: A 25 year climatology of large-amplitude inertia-gravity waves over the conterminous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 51–68.

Bosart, L. F., C. S. Velden, W. E. Bracken, J. Molinari, and P. G. Black, 2000: Environmental influences on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 322–352.

Bracken, W. E., and L. F. Bosart, 2000: The role of synoptic-scale flow during tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 353–376.

Lupo, A. R., L. F. Bosart, J. J. Nocera, E. G. Hoffman, and D. J. Knight, 2001: South American cold surges: Type, composites, and case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1021–1041.

Bals-Elsholz, T. M., E. H. Atallah, L. F. Bosart, T. A. Wasula, M. J. Cempa, and A. R. Lupo, 2001: The wintertime Southern Hemisphere split jet: Structure, variability, and evolution. J. of Climate, 14, 4191–4215.

Davis, C., and L. F. Bosart, 2001: Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984) Part I: Control simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1859–1881.

Doswell, C. A., and L. F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, C. A. Doswell, Ed., Meteor. Monogr., 27, No. 49, American Meteorological Society, 1–27.

Richter, H., and L. F. Bosart, 2002: The suppression of deep moist convection near the southern plains dryline. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1665–1691.

Davis, C., and L. F. Bosart, 2002: Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984). Part II. Sensitivity of track and intensity prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1100–1124.

Wasula, A. C., L. F. Bosart, and K. D. LaPenta, 2002: The influence of terrain on the severe weather distribution across interior Eastern New York and Western New England. Wea. and Forecasting, 17, 1277–1289.

Atallah, E. H., and L. F. Bosart 2003: Extratropical transition and precipitation distribution: A case study of Hurricane Floyd '99. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1063–1081.

Bosart, L .F., 2003: Tropopause folding: Upper-level frontogenesis, and beyond. A Half Century of Progress in Meteorology: A Tribute to Richard J. Reed. Meteor. Monogr., Amer. Meteor. Soc. Volume 31, number 53; 13-47.

Bosart, L. F., 2003: Whither the weather analysis and forecasting process? Wea. and Forecasting, 18, 520–529.

Davis, C. A., and L. F. Bosart, 2003: Baroclinically induced tropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2730–2747.

Jones, S. C., P. A. Harr, J. Abraham, L. F. Bosart, P. J. Bowyer, D. E. Hanley, B. N. Hanstrum, F. Lalaurette, M. R. Sinclair, R. K. Smith, and C. Thorncroft, 2003: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding and future directions. Wea. and Forecasting, 18, 1052–1092.

Pyle, M. E., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 2004: A diagnostic study of jet streaks: Kinematic signatures and relationship to coherent tropopause disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 297–319.

Davis, C. A., and L. F. Bosart, 2004: The TT problem: Forecasting the tropical transition of cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1657–1662.

Davis, C., N. Atkins, D. Bartels, L. Bosart, M. Coniglio, G. Bryan, W. Cotton, D. Dowell, B. Jewett, R. Johns, D. Jorgensen, J. Knievel, K. Knupp, W.-C. Lee, G. McFarquhar, J. Moore, R. Przbylinski, R. Rauber, B. Smull, R. Trapp, S Trier, R. Wakimoto, M. Weisman, and C. Ziegler, 2004: The Bow Echo and MCV experiment observations and opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1075–1093.

Novak, D. R., L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. S. Waldstreicher, 2004: An observational study of cold season banded precipitation in northeast United States cyclones. Wea. and Forecasting, 19, 993–1009.

Reasor, P. D., M. T. Montgomery, and L. F. Bosart, 2005: Mesoscale observations of the genesis of Hurricane Dolly (1996). J. Atmos. Sci, 62, 3151–3171.

LaPenta, K. D., L. F. Bosart, T. J. Galarneau Jr., and M. J. Dickinson, 2005: A multiscale examination of the 31 May 1998 Mechanicville, New York, F3 tornado. Wea. and Forecasting, 20, 494–516.

(a) Papers in Press

McTaggart-Cowan, R., E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum, and L. F. Bosart, 2005: Hurricane Juan (2003). Part I: A diagnostic and compositing lifecycle study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, (in press).

McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, and J. R. Gyakum, 2005: Hurricane Juan (2003). Part II: Forecasting and numerical simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, (in press).

Novak, D. R., J. S. Waldstreicher, D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 2005: A forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within eastern U.S. cyclones. Wea. and Forecasting, 20, (in press).

(b) Papers in Review

Wasula, A. C., L. F. Bosart, R. S. Schneider, S. J. Weiss, G. S. Manikin, and P. Welch, 2005: Mesoscale aspects of the rapid intensification of a tornadic convective line across central Florida: 22-23 February 1998. Wea. and Forecasting, 20, (conditionally accepted).

Davis, C. A., and L. F. Bosart, 2005: The formation of Hurricane Humberto (2001): The importance of extra-tropical precursors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, (conditionally accepted).

Bosart, L. F., A. C. Wasula, W. Drag, and K. Meier, 2006: Strong surface fronts over sloping terrain and coastal plains.  Fred Sanders Monograph, L. F. Bosart and H. B. Bluestein, Eds., Meteor. Monogr., American Meteorological Society, (accepted in final form).