WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability
Co-leaders:
- Ernest Afiesimama (Nigerian Met. Service)
- Sarah Jones (Univ. Karlsruhe, Germany)
- Dave Parsons (NCAR, US)
- Florence Rabier (Meteo-France)
- Chris Thorncroft (SUNY at Albany, US)
- Zoltan Toth (NCEP, US)
To
improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather in the following
regions. Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days. - West African Continent: onset and duration of wet/dry spells including monsoon onset; risk of heavy rainfall/floods, aerosol?
-
Downstream Atlantic: tropical cyclogenesis and intensity change; role of
large-scale (e.g. shear, SAL, dry air, large-scale convergence)
- Extratropics: extratropical transition, Rossby wave trains
Operational Activities
- Impact of additional observations and especially radio-soundings
over West Africa in analysis/forecasting systems for (a) West Africa, (b)
Atlantic & USA and (c) Europe
- Targeted observations in tropical regions (SOP2 & SOP3)
- Tailoring forecast products for users in tropical regions (1-14 days)
Report to the ISSC August 2005 will be added in October 2005
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