WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability: CHRIS'S TEST WORK IN PROGRESS!!!!

Co-leaders:
• Ernest Afiesimama (Nigerian Met. Service)
• Sarah Jones (Univ. Karlsruhe, Germany)
• Dave Parsons (NCAR, US)
• Florence Rabier (Meteo-France)
• Chris Thorncroft (SUNY at Albany, US)
• Zoltan Toth (NCEP, US)

To improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather in the following regions. Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days.

• West African Continent: onset and duration of wet/dry spells including monsoon onset; risk of heavy rainfall/floods, aerosol?
• Downstream Atlantic: tropical cyclogenesis and intensity change; role of large-scale (e.g. shear, SAL, dry air, large-scale convergence)
• Extratropics: extratropical transition, Rossby wave trains

Operational Activities

• Impact of additional observations and especially radio-soundings over West Africa in analysis/forecasting systems for (a) West Africa, (b) Atlantic & USA and (c) Europe
• Targeted observations in tropical regions (SOP2 & SOP3)
• Tailoring forecast products for users in tropical regions (1-14 days)

Report to the ISSC August 2005 will be added in October 2005