Sunday, 29 September 2019

 

Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM)

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Monday, 30 September 2019

 

Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM)

 

Session 1: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM)

Chair: Michael Riemer

Time

Author(s)

Title

8:00–8:40

Spengler

100th Anniversary of the Bergen School of Meteorology Paper

8:40–9:00

Raveh-Rubin and Catto

Climatology and Dynamics of the Link Between Dry Intrusions and Cold Fronts

9:00–9:20

Tochimoto and Niino

Structures of Extratropical Cyclones Developing in Pacific Storm Track

9:20–9:40

Sinclair and Dacre

Poleward Moisture Transport by Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere

9:40–10:00

Discussion

 

Break (10:00–10:30 AM)

 

Session 2: Jet Dynamics and Diagnostics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM)

Chair: Victoria Sinclair

Time

Author(s)

Title

10:30–10:50

Breeden and Martin

Evidence for Nonlinear Processes in Fostering a North Pacific Jet Retraction

10:50–11:10

Finocchio and Doyle

How the Jet Stream Controls the Downstream Response to Recurving Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Idealized Simulations

11:10–11:30

Madsen and Martin

Exploring Characteristic Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream

11:30–11:50

Winters et al.

The Role of Subsidence during the Development of North American Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions

11:50–12:10

Discussion

 

Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM)

 

Session 3: Rossby Waves (1:10–3:10 PM)

Chair: Annika Oertel

Time

Author(s)

Title

1:10–1:30

Röthlisberger et al.

Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of Cold and Hot Spells

1:30–1:50

Ali et al.

A Climatology of Recurrent Rossby Wave Packets and Links to Persistent Extreme Weather in the Southern Hemisphere

1:50–2:10

Riboldi et al.

A Wavenumber/Phase Speed Decomposition of the Midlatitude Flow to Investigate Variability and Changes of Rossby Wave Activity

2:10–2:30

Sussman et al.

Trends in Northern Midlatitude Atmospheric Wave Power from 1950–2099

2:30–2:50

Bowley and Gervais

Rossby Wave Breaking Through the 21st Century in a Global Climate Model

2:50–3:10

Discussion

 

Break (3:10–3:30 PM)

 

Session 4: Tropical–Extratropical Interactions (3:30 PM–5:30 PM)

Chair: Ajay Raghavendra

Time

Author(s)

Title

3:30–3:50

Mitchell and Bosart

The Relationship between Autumn Cold Surge Activity and Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

3:50–4:10

Rantanen et al.

The Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as Diagnosed with a Generalized Omega Equation and Vorticity Equation

4:10–4:30

Tripoli

Environmental Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Mass Outflow

4:30–4:50

Prince and Evans

A Climatological Analysis of Indirect Tropical Cyclone Interactions in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific Basins

4:50–5:10

Discussion

 

Ice Breaker (5:10–6:30 PM)

With remembrances of Fuqing Zhang

 

Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM)

 

Poster Session 1 (8:00–10:00 PM)

Presenter(s)

Title

Michael Bell

High-Order Azimuthal Wavenumber Asymmetries in Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Michael

Lance Bosart

The Cumulative Impact of Recurving and Transitioning North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the Downstream Large-Scale Circulation and the Eventual Termination of “Endless Summer” over Central and Eastern North America in October 2018

Maxi Böttcher

The Role of Diabatic Processes for Breakup of the PV Streamer and the Formation of the NAWDEX-Cyclone 'Sanchez'

Helen Dacre

Identifying an Extratropical Cyclone Cold Wake

John Gyakum

Thermodynamic Influences on Explosive Cyclogenesis

Kristine Flacké Haualand

How Do Latent Cooling and Surface Heat Fluxes Influence Baroclinic Development in an Idealised Framework?

Seraphine Hauser

A Weather System Perspective on Winter–Spring Rainfall Variability in Southeastern Australia during El Nino

Karimar Ledesma-Maldonado

Adjoint-Derived Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Toward Characterizing the Dynamical Response as Tropical Cyclones Evolve

Hilke Lentink

The Effects of Orography on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: A  Case Study of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Natália Machado Crespo

Climatological Aspects of Cyclogenesis Dynamics over South America and the South Atlantic Ocean

Stav Nahum

The Dynamical Environment of Dry Intrusion Initiation

Stav Nahum & Vered Silverman

Can We Predict Dry Intrusion Initiations and Understand Their Dynamical Environment Using an Artificial Neural Network?

Kelly Nunez Ocasio

The Role of Mesoscale Convective Systems in African Easterly Wave Tropical Cyclogenesis

Stephan Pfahl

The Sensitivity of Atmospheric Blocking to Changes in Upstream Latent Heating

Moritz Pickl

Sensitivity of the Representation of Diabatic Outflow in Numerical Models:  A Case Study

Ajay Raghavendra

The Mischievous MJO and Precipitation over the Congo Rainforest

Matthias Schindler

The Impact of Dropsonde and Extra Radiosonde Observations during NAWDEX and SHOUT in Autumn 2016

Brian Tang

Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Troughs of Different Widths

Franziska Teubler

Predictability and Dynamics of Rossby Wave Packets

 

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Tuesday, 1 October 2019

 

Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM)

 

Session 5: Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Structure, and Intensity Change (8:00–10:00 AM)

Chair: Brian Tang

Time

Author(s)

Title

8:00–8:20

Kilroy et al

Tropical Cyclogenesis at and near the Equator

8:20–8:40

Alland et al.

Synergistic Effects of Midlevel Dry Air and Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Development

8:40–9:00

Mazza and Chen

Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure of Tropical Storm Cindy (2017): Results from the CPEX Field Campaign

9:00–9:20

Fischer et al.

The Rapid Intensification and Eyewall Replacement Cycles of Hurricane Irma (2017)

9:20–9:40

Rivoire

What is Cooling the Tropopause above Tropical Cyclones?

9:40–10:00

Discussion

 

Break (10:00–10:30 AM)

 

Session 6: Stratospheric Dynamics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM)

Chair: Andrea Lang

Time

Author(s)

Title

10:30–10:50

Panhans and Lang

Climatology of Cold Air Outbreaks over the United States in the Aftermath of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (1979–2018)

10:50–11:10

Colucci et al.

Understanding the Relationship between Stratospheric Polar Vortex Disturbances and Lower Tropospheric Cold-Air Outbreaks

11:10–11:30

Main and Lang

Examining Tropospheric Precursors to the 22 February 2008 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event from an Ensemble Forecast Perspective

11:30–11:50

Paquette and Lang

Examining the Relationship Between Tropopause Polar Vortices and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

11:50–12:10

Discussion

 

Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM)

 

Session 7: Extratropical Cyclone Hazards: Winds (1:10–3:10 PM)

Chair: Andrew Winters

Time

Author(s)

Title

1:10–1:30

Angus and Leckebusch

Covariance of Windstorm Hazards in the Atlantic Basin

1:30–1:50

Pantillon et al.

Anatomy of a Cyclonic Windstorm in the Light of Doppler Lidar Observations and Large-Eddy Simulations

1:50–2:10

Spensberger and Schemm

The Poisonous Tail of the New Year’s Day Storm 1992: How Orography Shaped the Fronts during Landfall

2:10–2:30

Eisenstein et al.

The Impact of Topography on the Dynamics of Sting-Jet Storm "Egon" over Continental Europe

2:30–2:50

Gray et al.

Sting Jet Enhancement through Mesoscale Instability Release in Case Study and Idealised Simulations

2:50–3:10

Discussion

 

Break (3:10–3:30 PM)

 

Session 8: Tropical Cyclone Size and Winds (3:30–5:10 PM)

Chair: Dan Stern

Time

Author(s)

Title

3:30–3:50

Chavas and Reed

What Sets the Dynamical Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Size on latitude?
Dynamical Experiments in a World Where Cyclones Reach the Poles

3:50–4:10

Chen and Chavas

The Transient Responses of an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone to Instantaneous Surface Roughening and Dryings

4:10–4:30

Cione et al.

Using Observations from Buoys and Drones to Explore the Near-Surface Boundary Layer Environment of Tropical Cyclones

4:30–4:50

Bryan et al.

A Mechanism for Extraordinary Wind Gusts in Tropical Cyclones

4:50–5:10

Discussion

 

 

Recreation (5:10–6:30 PM)

 

Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM)

 

Evening Session (8:00–10:00 PM)

 

Education in Atmospheric Science: How to Train a Scientist We All Want to Work with

 

Panelists: Dan Chavas, Suzanne Gray, Kelly Lombardo, Jon Martin, Michael Riemer

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Wednesday, 2 October 2019

 

Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM)

 

Session 9: Extratropical Predictability: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM)

Chair: Maxi Böttcher

Time

Author(s)

Title

8:00–8:20

Hoover et al.

Sensitivity Diagnosis of the Development of a November 2018 East Coast Cyclone Event

8:20–8:40

Doyle et al.

Waveguide Seeds, Sensitivity, and Predictability during NAWDEX

8:40–9:00

Berman and Torn

Quantifying the Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide

9:00–9:20

Riemer et al.

Mechanistic Understanding of the Amplification of Forecast Errors and Forecast Uncertainty in a Quantitative Potential-Vorticity Framework

9:20–9:40

Dafis et al.

Deep Moist Convection in Tropical-Like Mediterranean Cyclones and Evaluation of Numerical Guidance

9:40–10:00

Discussion

 

Break (10:00–10:30 AM)

 

Session 10: Extratropical Predictability: Part II (10:30 AM–12:10 PM)

Chair: Gwendal Rivière

Time

Author(s)

Title

10:30–10:50

Keil et al.

Sources of Predictability for Deep Convection

10:50–11:10

Hewson et al.

New and Improved Rainfall Forecasts from ECMWF

11:10–11:30

Pinto et al.

Synoptic-Scale Conditions and Convection-Permitting Hindcast Experiments of a Cold Season Derecho on 3 January 2014 in Western Europe

11:30–11:50

Anderson-Frey and Gallo

EnSOMble Forecasting: Leveraging Self-Organizing Maps for Tornado Threat Modeling

11:50–12:10

Discussion

 

Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM)

 

Session 11: Extratropical Cyclone Hazards: Precipitation and Convection (1:10–3:10 PM)

Chair: Stephan Pfahl

Time

Author(s)

Title

1:10–1:30

McCray et al.

Synoptic–Dynamic Modulations of Freezing Rain Event Duration

1:30–1:50

Melamed-Turkish

A Precipitation Climatology Based on the Quasigeostrophic Omega Equation

1:50–2:10

Moore et al.

Dynamics and Predictability of Extreme Precipitation Events along the U.S. West Coast

2:10–2:30

Lombardo and Wu

Dynamics of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Varying Surface Topography

2:30–2:50

Halbert and Orf

Turbulent Generation of Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity in a Simulated Supercell Thunderstorm During the Tornado Maintenance Phase

2:50–3:10

Discussion

 

Break (3:10–3:30 PM)

 

Session 12: TPVs and Polar Meteorology (3:30–5:10 PM)

Chair: Christian Grams

Time

Author(s)

Title

3:30–3:50

Riedel and Cavallo

Sensitivity of Forecasts to Special Observations in a TPV during the 2016 NAWDEX Field Campaign using the MPAS-DART
Ensemble Data Assimilation System

3:50–4:10

Biernat et al.

A Comparison of Arctic Cyclones between Periods of Low and High Forecast Skill of the Synoptic-Scale Flow over the Arctic

4:10–4:30

Capute and Torn

A Comparison of the Predictability of Arctic and Atlantic Basin Cyclones

4:30–4:50

Stern et al.

Investigating the Impact of Cyclones on Short-Term Sea Ice Loss using a Fully-Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean–Ice Model

4:50–5:10

Discussion

 

Recreation (5:10–6:30 PM)

 

Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM)

 

Poster Session 2 (8:00–10:00 PM)

Presenter

Title

Hanin Binder

Dynamics of Forecast Error Growth along Cutoff “Sanchez” and its Consequence for the Prediction of a High-Impact Weather Event over Southern France

Hai Bui

Influences of Surface Moisture Sources on Extratropical Cyclones in an Idealized Framework

Edgar Dolores-Tesillos

A Composite Perspective on Precipitation and Intensity Changes of Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate

David Flack

Representation of Two Deep Extratropical Cyclones in Climate Models during the NAWDEX Field Campaign

Emmanouil Flaounas

A Process-Based Anatomy of the Dynamical Structure of Mediterranean Cyclones

Peter Knippertz

Cyclonic Vortices in the African Tropics

Andrea Lang

The Impact of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Tropical Variability on the Location, Frequency, and Duration of Cool-Season Extratropical Weather Systems

Ron McTaggart-Cowan

Reducing TC False Alarms in Canadian NWP

Mario Marcello Miglietta

Development Mechanism of Tropical-Like Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea

Roman Pohorsky

The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events

Julian Quinting

Development of a Logistic Model to Study Warm Conveyor Belts on Subseasonal Timescales

Gwendal Rivière

The Downward Transport of Momentum to the Surface in Idealized Sting-Jet Cyclones

Andreas Schäfler

Observation of Jet Stream Winds during NAWDEX and Systematic Meteorological Analysis Errors

Vered Silverman

The Life Cycle of Cyclones, Dry Intrusions, Cold Fronts and their Modulation by the Stratosphere

Roger Smith

On the Dynamics of Spin Up in Emanuel’s 2012 Tropical Cyclone Model

Thomas Spengler

Self-Maintenance of Baroclinicity by Extratropical Cyclones

Gaurav Tiwari

Sensitivity of Background Error Modeling Methods in the WRF-Var Data Assimilation Approach for Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Wataru Yanase

Parameter Sweep Experiments on a Spectrum of Cyclones with Diabatic and Baroclinic Processes

 

 

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Thursday, 3 October 2019

 

Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM)

 

Session 13: Tropical Cyclone Predictability: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM)

Chair: Ron McTaggart–Cowan

Time

Author(s)

Title

8:00–8:20

Camargo et al.

How Strong is the Relationship between the Large-Scale Environment and Tropical Cyclone Climatology in Climate Models?

8:20–8:40

Rios-Berrios

Subseasonal Variability of Tropical Cyclones Deduced from Storm-Resolving Aquaplanet Simulations

8:40–9:00

Zhang et al.

Sensitivity of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Weather Perturbations at the Tropical–Extratropical Interface

9:00–9:20

Papin et al.

Linkages between PV Streamer Activity and Tropical Cyclone Predictability on Subseasonal Timescales

9:20–9:40

Maier-Gerber et al.

Statistical–Dynamical Forecasting of North Atlantic TC Activity on the Subseasonal Time Scales

9:40–10:00

Discussion

 

Break (10:00–10:30 AM)

 

Session 14: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part II (10:30 AM–12:10 PM)

Chair: Julian Quinting

Time

Author(s)

Title

10:30–10:50

Li et al.

Diagnosis and Numerical Modeling of an Explosive Cyclone over the Changbai Mountain in North of Korean Peninsula

10:50–11:10

Fu et al.

Three Shapes of Upper-Level Potential Vorticity Associated with Explosive Cyclones

11:10–11:30

Portmann et al.

Upper-Level Potential Vorticity Cutoffs and Surface Cyclones: A Climatological Study using a Lagrangian Tracking Method

11:30–11:50

Schielicke et al.

Vortex Identification in Datasets with Different Resolutions using the Example of a Derecho Embedded in Winter Storm Kyrill

11:50–12:10

Discussion

 

Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM)

 

Session 15: Diabatic and Microphysical Processes in Extratropical Cyclones: Part I (1:10–3:10 PM)

Chair: Hanin Binder

Time

Author(s)

Title

1:10–1:30

Spreitzer et al.

Modification of the Near-Tropopause PV Structure by Diabatic Processes

1:30–1:50

Büeler and Pfahl

Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify the Role of Latent Heating for Extratropical Cyclone Dynamics in a Warmer Climate

1:50–2:10

Crespo et al.

CYGNSS Observations and Analysis of Surface Heat Fluxes in Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones

2:10–2:30

Michaelis et al.

Role of Latent Heating in AR Dynamics: Comparison of Two Events from February 2019

2:30–2:50

Fish et al.

Assessing the Connection between Atmospheric River Events and Exploring Their Relation to Extratropical and Tropical Large-Scale Drivers

2:50–3:10

Discussion

 

Break (3:10–3:30 PM)

 

Session 16: Tropical Cyclone Predictability: Part II (3:30–5:10 PM)

Chair: Rosimar Rios-Berrios

Time

Author(s)

Title

3:30–3:50

Leonardo and Colle

Physical Processes Associated with Large Cross-Track Errors in North Atlantic TCs

3:50–4:10

Di Muzio et al.

Predictability of Medicanes in the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System

4:10–4:30

Judt

Cyclone Prediction Across Scales with Global Storm Resolving Models

4:30–4:50

Zibton and Morgan

Evaluation of Adjoint Response Functions for Tropical Cyclone Intensity

4:50–5:10

Discussion

 

Recreation (5:30–6:30 PM)

 

Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM)

 

Evening Session (8:00–10:00 PM)

 

Time for Interactivity: Analysis of NWP data in 5D

 

Andrea Lang, Tim Hewson, Marc Rautenhaus

 

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Friday, 4 October 2019

 

Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM)

Session 17: Diabatic and Microphysical Processes in Extratropical Cyclones: Part II (8:00–10:00 AM)

Chair: Jeremy Berman

Time

Author(s)

Title

8:00–8:20

Harvey and Methven

Negative PV in Warm Conveyor Belt Airstreams: Observations, Theory, and Models

8:20–8:40

Grams

The Role of Cloud Diabatic Processes in the Life Cycle of Atlantic–European Weather Regimes

8:40–9:00

Mazoyer et al.

Impact of Different Microphysics on the Warm Conveyor Belt of a Deep Extratropical Cyclone Observed during the NAWDEX Campaign and its Associated Ridge Building

9:00–9:20

Blanchard et al.

Impact of Diabatic Processes on the Mesoscale Dynamics of an Observed North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclone

9:20–9:40

Oertel et al.

Embedded Convection in the Warm Conveyor Belt of a North Atlantic Cyclone and its Relevance for Large-Scale Dynamics

9:40–10:00

Discussion

 

Break (10:00–10:30 AM)

 

Session 18: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part III (10:30 AM–12:10 PM)

Chair: Melissa Breeden

Time

Author(s)

Title

10:30–10:50

Abbott and Martin

A Diagnostic Scheme for Separating Curvature and Along-Flow Speed Change Contributions to Midlatitude, Synoptic-Scale Vertical Motions

10:50–11:10

Leicht and Bosart

Understanding the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Processes that Govern the Structure and Evolution
of Persistent West Coast Cool Season Ridge Regimes

11:10–11:30

Priestley et al.

The Role of Secondary Cyclones and Cyclone Families for the North Atlantic Storm Track

11:30–11:50

Weijenborg and Spengler

Can Extratropical Cyclones Increase Baroclinicity? A Pathway to Cyclone Clustering

11:50–12:10

Discussion

 

Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM)

 

End of Workshop