From: Mike Landin (ES 324, 518-442-4572) To: Potential Thunderstorm Forecast Contest Participants Re: Summer 2007 Thunderstorm Forecasting Contest ** THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING CONTEST BEGINS MONDAY, JUNE 4th ** =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Basic Rules and Procedures for the Thunderstorm contest: ===> Forecast whether THUNDER will be heard at each of the ten cities in the contest (see below) for a 24-hour period from 18Z today until 18Z tomorrow. If THUNDER is reported as present weather on the 18Z observation, then THUNDER is verified ("10") for both periods on either side. If THUNDER is reported on a "special" within 15 minutes prior to the 18Z observation time, then *all* participating forecasters that day are given a "Gift 10" for that city. Just because THUNDER is reported at 17Z does *not* qualify for a "Gift 10". The verification is for THUNDER only ... not lightning alone ... not baseball size hail ... not funnel clouds ... you get the idea. Forecasts of THUNDER are made in whole multiples of 10%, where: 1=10%, 2=20%, 3=30% ... 9=90%, 10=100%. Error points are scored as follows: squared distance from verification. EXAMPLE: forecast is a "3" for 30% chance of THUNDER being heard If verification is '0' for *no* THUNDER ---> ( 0 - 3)^2 = 9 points If verification is '10' for THUNDER -------> (10 - 3)^2 = 49 points PRIMARY OBJECT OF THE CONTEST ===> obtain as *few* points as possible. ** NEW FOR SUMMER 2007 ** NOTE: A clarification as to "THUNDER" on an ASOS METAR report. To verify THUNDER (i.e., "10"), it must appear as present weather (i.e., "TS", "TSRA", "VCTS", etc.) -or- be indicated that THUNDER began and ended during the previous hour in the RMK section of the METAR report (e.g., "TSB15E37"). An incorrect observer remark such as "TS S MOVG E" or "TS DSNT N" will no longer be an indication of THUNDER being heard at the station. (In those cases, the proper remark should be something like "CB S MOVG E" or "TCU N".) =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Additional important information: 1. In order to participate, you must receive a Forecaster I.D. from the Contest Director (i.e., Mike Landin). If you have participated in the Albany Forecast Contest this past academic year or last summer in the Thunderstorm Contest, then your I.D. will remain the same. If not, then I will need a 6-letter Forecaster I.D. (first 6 letters of your last name works best), along with a 9-digit number (not your SSN), which will serve as your "password" on the Web Page Entry Form. All known Forecaster I.D.s will be activated by Monday, June 4th. 2. The contest is only played on Monday through Thursday each week. The contest will begin on Monday, June 4th and run through Thursday, August 23rd. There is no forecasting on Wednesday, July 4th. 3. All forecasts must be completed by 1745Z (1:45 PM EDT) and entered by the Web Page Entry Form. For those entering forecasts remotely, this is how you can find and use the Web Page Entry Form at: http://www.atmos.albany.edu on "Weather Data and Forecasts" on "Forecast Contests" on "Thunderstorm Forecasting Contest" 4. For local UALB participants ... the Official Forecast Contest Forms are available in the tray located on the compuyter desk in the ATM211 Lab near the door. The Verification sheet, which contains the current monthly city climos, will be hanging in the adjacent hallway. 5. A CONSENSUS listing will be posted daily on the wall outside the Weather Center, as well on our Web Page, showing each and every forecast entered for that day. If you notice a gross error, you must point it out *immediately* to the Contest Director (i.e., M.L.). Updated weekly Contest standings will be run on Fridays. You must participate at least 50% of the time to be eligible for the overall composite listings. In addition, to qualify to WIN the contest (#1 ranking on the CONSENSUS BANQUET LIST, you must have participated in at least 50% of the forecast days in each of the final two months (JUL & AUG). (Note the JUNE requirement was dropped due to the large number of forecasters that miss days due to storm chasing and vacations.) Each forecaster is ranked against CONSENSUS only for the days that they participate, using the formula: [ (Econ - Efcst) / Econ ] * 100% where, 'Econ' is CONSENSUS error points 'Efcst' is the individual forecaster error points A similar formula is used for ranking versus CLIMATOLOGY. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= ---------------------------------------------------------------- CITY THUNDER CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUMMER 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE JULY AUG ALB ALBANY 2 2+ 2- GSO GREENSBORO 3 4- 3 BNA NASHVILLE 3 3 2 TPA TAMPA 5- 7 7 OKC OKLAHOMA CITY 3 2+ 2+ OMA OMAHA 4- 3 3 PIA PEORIA 2+ 2 2- BIS BISMARCK 3- 4- 3 DEN DENVER 3+ 4- 3- SLC SALT LAKE CITY 2- 2+ 3- ---------------------------------------------------------------- Note: "-" and "+" are indicators for slightly lower and slightly higher than rounded climo, respectively. (Examples: "3-" = 25-26%, "3" = 27-32%, "3+" = 33-34%. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Please send back a 'reply' to this e-mail if you are planning to participate in this Summer's contest. This will also verify your proper e-mail address for future announcements. ** GOOD LUCK! ** ML