KALB GFS MOS GUIDANCE 7/31/2006 1200 UTC DT /JULY 31/AUG 1 /AUG 2 /AUG 3 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 73 100 75 99 74 TMP 88 90 85 78 75 74 79 89 97 98 92 84 79 77 81 89 96 96 89 78 78 DPT 63 65 67 69 70 70 72 75 75 74 74 72 72 72 73 74 72 72 71 71 71 CLD SC SC SC SC SC SC SC FW SC SC FW CL CL CL CL FW SC SC SC OV OV WDR 25 22 21 18 18 19 20 24 28 28 26 22 19 18 19 25 26 28 27 21 26 WSP 06 07 05 05 06 06 08 11 14 12 08 07 04 03 05 10 15 13 08 05 05 P06 0 4 18 4 2 4 5 5 18 15 24 P12 18 5 5 19 37 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 13/ 3 14/ 8 4/ 5 6/ 0 9/ 5 9/ 8 2/ 6 5/ 2 17/ 4 10/ 6 T12 16/ 8 6/ 5 9/ 8 9/ 6 29/10 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 VIS 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 OBV N N N N HZ BR HZ HZ N N N N N N N N N N N N HZ KALB ETA MOS GUIDANCE 7/31/2006 1200 UTC DT /JULY 31/AUG 1 /AUG 2 /AUG 3 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 74 95 75 97 73 TMP 85 87 82 78 76 75 78 85 92 93 88 82 79 77 81 88 93 94 87 77 78 DPT 66 68 71 72 73 73 75 77 75 75 75 75 74 73 75 76 73 72 71 72 73 CLD BK BK BK BK OV BK BK BK FW FW CL CL CL CL FW FW FW FW FW SC SC WDR 24 24 21 21 22 24 25 26 26 28 27 24 24 24 24 26 28 27 26 29 20 WSP 05 08 06 05 07 04 06 06 10 14 09 07 05 05 06 08 13 15 10 06 03 P06 6 44 17 14 7 9 2 2 3 13 5 P12 47 14 11 10 15 Q06 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 1 0 0 0 0 T06 14/11 53/12 10/ 6 11/ 3 28/10 13/11 10/ 5 5/ 2 19/ 8999/99 T12 53/12 18/ 6 28/11 15/ 5 999/99 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 7 7 7 7 6 5 OBV N N N N BR BR BR HZ N N N N HZ BR HZ N N N N BR HZ starting weather Tue Aug 1 20:01:00 GMT 2006 KALB 011151Z 20004KT 8SM SCT028 25/23 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP115 T02500228 10256 20233 50007= KALB 011211Z 16004KT 9SM BKN026 26/23 A2988 RMK AO2= KALB 011251Z 12004KT 10SM OVC026 26/23 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP117 T02610228= KALB 011351Z 19003KT 10SM OVC026 28/23 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP112 T02780233= KALB 011434Z 18005KT 10SM SCT026 28/23 A2987 RMK AO2= KALB 011451Z 00000KT 10SM FEW028 29/23 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP113 T02940233 58002= KALB 011551Z VRB03KT 10SM CLR 31/24 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP110 T03110239= KALB 011651Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 32/24 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP107 T03170244= KALB 011751Z VRB04KT 10SM CLR 33/24 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP103 T03280244 10333 20250 58010= KALB 011851Z 26008G17KT 220V290 10SM CLR 35/24 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP098 T03500244= KALB 011951Z 21009KT 10SM FEW060 34/25 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP094 T03390250= KALB GFS MOS GUIDANCE 8/01/2006 1200 UTC DT /AUG 1/AUG 2 /AUG 3 /AUG 4 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 76 101 75 85 65 TMP 95 95 90 83 79 77 82 91 98 98 92 83 79 77 80 80 82 81 76 69 70 DPT 74 74 74 74 74 73 75 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 72 71 69 67 66 63 64 CLD SC SC SC FW FW CL FW FW SC SC BK BK OV BK BK OV BK BK BK OV SC WDR 27 27 26 20 18 19 19 24 26 28 28 21 21 25 30 32 32 33 32 35 35 WSP 07 10 06 07 04 03 06 12 16 14 07 05 05 05 07 07 06 07 05 01 03 P06 4 7 8 5 5 21 27 11 19 10 18 P12 8 12 28 22 18 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 12/ 6 13/ 8 3/ 5 10/ 1 21/ 6 24/ 9 10/ 6 5/ 1 16/ 2 3/ 5 T12 22/ 8 10/ 5 29/ 9 13/ 6 16/ 7 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 7 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N HZ HZ N N N N N N N N N N N N N Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 91.6 km. Initialization Time: 06-08-01 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 01/12 01/18 02/00 02/06 02/12 02/18 03/00 03/06 03/12 03/18 04/00 04/06 04/12 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 20 21 22 22 20 22 22 21 17 15 15 15 17 700 MB (C) 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 6 500 MB (C) -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -7 1000-500 THCK 578 582 583 581 580 581 582 581 579 577 572 571 573 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH 15/70 16/76 15/65 14/58 14/66 15/67 14/60 16/74 15/88 14/90 14/81 700 MB DP/RH 2/59 1/54 1/53 2/55 1/50 2/52 0/51 3/62 2/51 -1/47 3/83 500 MB DP/RH -23/23 -19/28 -24/20 -20/28 -22/23 -25/18 -15/44 -11/61 -16/40 -14/54 -23/27 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.04 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 31/025 29/020 29/026 29/029 29/026 27/023 27/026 27/038 30/020 31/017 28/013 27/003 30/020 700 MB 30/028 30/027 31/025 28/025 27/033 29/036 28/035 27/037 27/040 29/022 30/014 500 MB 31/032 31/032 29/028 28/030 28/027 27/035 29/045 28/033 27/037 27/044 27/038 27/038 28/038 250 MB 32/021 28/020 30/022 29/025 30/027 29/030 27/031 27/033 26/034 29/045 28/051 27/069 25/055 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -3 0 -4 -9 -16 11 12 -8 -26 -4 8 700 MB -2 13 -3 -8 -18 3 -19 -9 -2 -1 -3 500 MB -1 -1 1 0 1 0 -17 7 11 2 -5 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 133 133 131 129 129 130 123 132 126 141 134 MSL PRES (MB) 1011 1008 1008 1010 1009 1008 1007 1005 1006 1009 1009 1013 1008 500 MB HGT (DM) 589 589 590 589 588 588 588 587 584 584 582 581 580 500 MB ABS VORT 7.6 5.1 6.6 7.9 7.6 9.9 7.9 5.7 4.1 11.4 10.0 KALB ETA MOS GUIDANCE 8/01/2006 1200 UTC DT /AUG 1/AUG 2 /AUG 3 /AUG 4 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 76 93 72 92 72 TMP 92 92 87 82 79 77 81 87 90 90 85 79 76 74 77 84 89 89 83 76 78 DPT 77 76 76 75 75 74 76 77 76 75 74 73 73 72 74 76 74 73 72 73 74 CLD BK BK SC CL CL FW BK SC SC SC BK BK SC BK BK BK BK SC BK OV SC WDR 28 28 27 25 24 26 24 25 27 28 29 29 18 17 18 23 27 28 31 05 19 WSP 09 14 09 08 08 06 07 09 16 16 09 06 01 03 06 07 09 09 04 04 08 P06 1 4 8 5 26 28 11 7 29 32 23 P12 8 26 28 39 39 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 1 1 T06 22/10 13/12 10/ 5 10/ 3 28/10 15/ 9 10/ 6 11/ 3 29/11999/99 T12 22/12 17/ 5 28/11 20/ 6 999/99 CIG 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 OBV N N N N BR BR HZ HZ N N HZ N BR BR BR HZ N N HZ BR HZ Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 22.3 km. Initialization Time: 06-08-01 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 01/12 01/18 02/00 02/06 02/12 02/18 03/00 03/06 03/12 03/18 04/00 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 2 M (F) 850 MB (C) 20 21 22 22 22 21 20 19 20 20 20 700 MB (C) 10 10 12 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 500 MB (C) -5 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 1000-500 THCK 579 581 583 581 580 582 581 579 579 579 578 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 850 MB DP(C)/RH 19/91 19/88 18/80 16/68 17/75 19/85 17/80 16/80 17/82 18/83 17/81 700 MB DP(C)/RH 4/65 0/51 1/47 -6/30 -4/36 -4/36 4/62 2/60 -3/39 -1/47 3/67 500 MB DP(C)/RH -27/16 ***/00 -30/10 -25/16 -25/18 -19/30 -11/58 -13/50 -20/31 -21/26 -16/40 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.16 6HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.16 12HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.17 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 31/028 28/022 28/029 29/035 30/033 27/025 28/033 29/031 28/029 25/022 26/021 700 MB 30/026 30/026 31/024 29/022 28/030 29/041 30/039 29/033 28/038 27/037 28/032 500 MB 31/031 31/037 30/035 28/030 28/029 29/036 29/038 28/038 27/043 27/046 27/037 250 MB 31/019 27/018 29/006 28/011 31/024 29/021 29/027 28/022 28/016 27/024 26/049 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1011.8 1008.1 1007.1 1007.5 1007.8 1006.1 1005.1 1006.7 1006.8 1006.2 1006.6 850 MB HGT 152 151 151 150 150 150 148 148 148 149 148 700 MB HGT 317 316 316 315 315 315 313 312 312 313 312 500 MB HGT 589 589 589 588 587 587 586 585 585 585 584 250 MB HGT 1098 1100 1100 1099 1098 1099 1099 1097 1096 1096 1095 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -32 -7 -16 -39 -36 -20 -20 -36 12 -3 6 700 MB -5 -1 -36 -22 -39 -50 -24 -36 1 -1 26 500 MB 4 15 -8 11 11 -5 0 5 8 -4 8 CONVECTION PARAMS LIFT INX SFC LIFT INX 4LYR CAPE SFC 704 3748 2812 1290 1188 3491 878 621 913 1353 1799 CAPE 4LYR CIN SFC -119 -1 -7 -107 -119 -1 -36 -53 -71 -92 -34 CIN 4LYR HELICITY (0-3 KM) KALB GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 8/01/2006 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06| MON 07| TUE 08 CLIMO X/N 99| 76 98| 74 84| 65 83| 63 85| 60 84| 64 82| 61 82 59 83 TMP 89| 82 89| 78 76| 69 74| 68 76| 66 77| 68 74| 66 75 DPT 72| 75 72| 72 67| 65 61| 62 59| 59 65| 63 63| 60 60 CLD PC| CL PC| PC OV| PC PC| CL CL| CL PC| OV PC| CL PC WND 12| 8 15| 8 6| 5 6| 5 11| 8 9| 11 13| 7 12 P12 8| 5 24| 34 37| 32 21| 20 12| 10 21| 31 33| 18 17 20 23 P24 | 24| 58| 36| 26| 21| 43| 35 34 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| | T12 15| 12 25| 17 30| 11 9| 5 12| 6 17| 12 20| 7 11 T24 | 15 | 37 | 38 | 9 | 16 | 20 | 20 KALB GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 8/01/2006 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06| MON 07| TUE 08|WED CLIMO N/X 76 101| 75 85| 65 85| 63 84| 61 86| 66 83| 63 80| 59 59 83 TMP 82 92| 80 76| 70 77| 69 75| 68 78| 70 75| 66 73| 63 DPT 75 73| 72 66| 64 62| 62 59| 61 60| 64 64| 61 60| 58 WND 7 16| 7 7| 5 5| 5 8| 6 8| 5 11| 8 8| 5 P12 8 12| 28 22| 18 26| 29 11| 15 13| 26 30| 11 16| 18 20 23 P24 20| 43| 27| 33| 22| 38| 16| 34 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 13 24| 25 21| 11 10| 7 12| 3 11| 9 22| 14 7| 6 T24 | 39 | 28 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 22 | 9 Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 91.6 km. Initialization Time: 06-08-01 0000 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P12 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 01/00 24 1010 586 8 577 19 21/006 012 01/12 24 1009 587 9 579 20 26/012 0.02 024 02/00 27 1007 589 11 583 22 26/013 0.09 036 02/12 25 1009 588 10 581 21 26/011 0.03 048 03/00 26 1006 585 7 580 21 27/007 0.06 060 03/12 24 1006 584 6 578 18 28/008 0.09 072 04/00 20 1009 583 5 575 15 35/005 0.11 084 04/12 18 1012 579 1 568 12 02/006 0.01 096 05/00 19 1014 578 0 567 13 01/002 0.00 108 05/12 18 1016 578 0 565 13 27/011 0.00 120 06/00 18 1017 580 2 566 13 30/011 0.00 132 06/12 18 1021 582 4 564 13 25/002 0.00 144 07/00 23 1016 584 6 570 17 19/013 0.00 156 07/12 19 1011 580 2 570 16 22/020 0.09 168 08/00 20 1010 577 -1 568 12 28/012 0.09 180 08/12 192 09/00 15 1017 573 -5 558 8 33/008 0.00 204 09/12 11 1022 574 -4 555 6 34/006 0.00 216 10/00 15 1022 578 0 559 9 00/007 0.00 228 10/12 15 1025 581 3 559 8 02/003 0.00 240 11/00 16 1023 581 3 562 10 16/006 0.00 252 11/12 16 1025 581 3 560 9 20/002 0.00 264 12/00 17 1021 582 4 564 11 19/008 0.00 276 12/12 15 1021 582 4 564 10 21/004 0.00 288 13/00 20 1016 581 3 567 13 21/007 0.00 300 13/12 18 1015 578 1 566 14 21/006 0.05 312 14/00 19 1013 576 -2 565 13 29/004 0.29 324 14/12 15 1015 574 -3 562 11 34/007 0.16 336 15/00 17 1015 576 -2 564 11 35/007 0.00 348 15/12 15 1017 577 -1 563 9 01/005 0.00 360 16/00 17 1014 577 -1 565 12 03/003 0.00 372 16/12 18 1013 573 -5 561 11 01/002 0.00 384 17/00 18 1012 572 -5 562 12 34/005 0.01 FXUS61 KALY 011959 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 359 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOCAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES DRIVING SOME ISOLATED STORMS...A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN THE SMALL CLUSTER SE OF ALB. STORMS WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET...AS IT IS QUITE WARM ALOFT AND ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND END. MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUD COVER LIMITED SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT TOMORROW SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...SO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...MEANING THAT THE PATH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH AS WELL. SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT LEAST A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BETTER CHANCES WORK SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...FINAL PUSH TO COOLER AIR AND COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ONE MORE ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE VERY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SO...ONE MORE DAY OF EXCESSIVE HAT EVERYWHERE TOMORROW...WELL INTO THE 80S THURSDAY...BUT NO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100...EXCEPT POSSIBLY POU AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...BUT THAT CAN BE ASSESSSED LATER. FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD FLAT MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. SOME HINTS OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN TOWARD SUNDAY...THEN MORE REINFORCING COOLING DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO...NO MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT SEEN IN THE EXTENDED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05Z...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE...ESP NEAR RIVER VALLEYS...AND IN ANY ISOLATED TSTMS. AFTER 05Z...EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AT KGFL AND KPOU...WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO LOWER/MID 70S...WHICH WILL BE BELOW TODAYS CROSSOVER TEMPS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z ONCE MIXING COMMENCES ONCE AGAIN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME SMALL STREAMS WITHIN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR CTZ001-013 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. MA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MAZ001-025 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. NY...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYZ032-033-058-063 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066- 082>084 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. VT...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR VTZ013-015 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VTZ014 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ NAS/KL done