starting weather Mon May 7 23:01:00 GMT 2007 KALB 071151Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 08/01 A3050 RMK AO2 SLP328 T00780006 10078 20022 53015= KALB 071251Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 10/M01 A3049 RMK AO2 SLP327 T01001011= KALB 071351Z 22003KT 10SM CLR 12/M01 A3046 RMK AO2 SLP317 T01221011= KALB 071451Z 00000KT 10SM FEW075 15/M02 A3045 RMK AO2 SLP313 T01501017 58015= KALB 071551Z 00000KT 10SM FEW075 16/M02 A3044 RMK AO2 SLP308 T01611022= KALB 071651Z 15004KT 10SM CLR 17/M02 A3042 RMK AO2 SLP301 T01721022= KALB 071751Z 21007KT 10SM CLR 19/M02 A3040 RMK AO2 SLP294 T01891022 10189 20078 58018= KALB 071851Z 16005KT 10SM CLR 19/M03 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP286 T01941028= KALB 071951Z VRB04KT 10SM CLR 21/M03 A3034 RMK AO2 SLP276 T02061033= KALB 072051Z 16004KT 10SM CLR 21/M03 A3033 RMK AO2 SLP271 T02111028 56023= KALB 072151Z 17009KT 10SM CLR 21/M02 A3031 RMK AO2 SLP263 T02061017= KALB 072251Z 21008KT 10SM CLR 19/M01 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP260 T01941006= KALB GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC DT /MAY 7/MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 40 79 52 79 56 TMP 68 72 64 55 49 44 51 65 74 77 72 62 57 53 58 68 76 78 73 61 62 DPT 27 28 30 33 34 34 36 36 37 40 42 44 46 47 50 51 51 51 52 52 54 CLD CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL BK SC SC BK BK OV SC WDR 20 22 19 19 17 16 18 19 21 21 21 18 18 18 21 23 25 27 26 27 25 WSP 06 07 04 06 01 02 05 07 14 13 10 06 03 01 04 04 07 08 06 03 04 P06 0 1 2 1 1 3 7 3 9 17 11 P12 3 4 7 9 30 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 0/ 8 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 5 0/10 0/ 0 1/ 0 1/ 8 5/12 2/ 0 T12 0/ 8 0/ 5 1/10 2/ 8 9/12 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 0 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N KALB GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1800 UTC DT /MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 40 78 52 79 59 TMP 62 51 47 42 51 65 73 78 71 62 57 53 59 69 76 78 73 66 63 65 79 DPT 30 32 33 33 36 36 37 38 40 43 45 46 49 50 51 52 53 55 56 57 56 CLD CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW SC SC BK BK BK BK OV OV BK WDR 18 18 16 16 17 19 20 21 20 18 18 17 19 21 22 24 23 20 21 20 22 WSP 04 05 02 02 05 08 12 13 08 09 04 01 03 04 07 08 05 04 04 03 07 P06 0 6 1 0 5 8 4 10 15 16 20 P12 6 4 8 12 27 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/11 0/ 4 0/ 2 0/ 0 1/ 6 7/13 7/ 0 9/ 7 T12 0/11 0/ 4 2/ 9 12/13 11/ 7 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 29.0 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P06 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/12 10 1031 579 17 553 5 29/001 006 07/18 19 1028 582 20 558 6 20/005 0.00 012 08/00 11 1025 583 21 561 9 21/008 0.00 018 08/06 6 1024 583 21 562 13 21/008 0.00 024 08/12 10 1024 582 20 562 11 22/007 0.00 030 08/18 23 1020 582 20 565 11 24/011 0.00 036 09/00 16 1018 581 19 566 12 21/009 0.00 042 09/06 10 1019 580 17 564 12 24/007 0.00 048 09/12 14 1019 579 16 563 11 25/005 0.00 054 09/18 24 1017 578 15 563 11 27/006 0.00 060 10/00 18 1017 576 13 562 12 32/006 0.00 066 10/06 13 1018 574 11 559 11 31/005 0.03 072 10/12 15 1019 575 12 559 10 29/003 0.02 078 10/18 25 1016 576 13 562 11 21/003 0.02 084 11/00 19 1015 576 13 563 12 20/008 0.04 090 11/06 15 1015 575 12 562 12 21/007 0.00 096 11/12 17 1015 574 11 561 11 21/006 0.01 102 11/18 23 1012 573 10 563 12 26/009 0.11 108 12/00 18 1012 572 9 562 12 26/005 0.16 114 12/06 15 1011 571 7 561 11 30/005 0.01 120 12/12 14 1013 569 6 558 10 02/009 0.01 126 12/18 19 1014 568 4 556 8 02/011 0.01 132 13/00 13 1016 566 2 552 6 03/009 0.00 138 13/06 6 1018 563 -1 548 4 36/007 0.00 144 13/12 9 1021 565 1 547 2 02/008 0.00 150 13/18 19 1019 565 2 549 4 35/004 0.00 156 14/00 9 1019 566 2 551 5 05/005 0.00 162 14/06 6 1019 566 1 550 5 15/005 0.00 168 14/12 11 1017 567 2 552 6 20/007 0.00 174 14/18 20 1011 567 2 557 7 20/016 0.00 180 15/00 16 1009 567 2 559 9 21/013 0.00 Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 29.0 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P06 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/18 19 1028 582 20 558 6 17/005 006 08/00 11 1025 582 20 561 10 20/008 0.00 012 08/06 6 1024 582 20 562 12 20/008 0.00 018 08/12 10 1024 582 20 562 11 21/006 0.00 024 08/18 23 1020 583 20 566 11 23/010 0.00 030 09/00 16 1017 581 19 567 12 21/010 0.00 036 09/06 10 1019 580 17 564 12 23/007 0.00 042 09/12 14 1019 579 16 562 11 25/004 0.00 048 09/18 25 1017 577 15 563 12 24/007 0.00 054 10/00 18 1016 576 13 563 13 30/005 0.00 060 10/06 15 1016 574 11 560 12 24/005 0.01 066 10/12 17 1016 574 11 560 11 28/002 0.01 072 10/18 23 1015 575 12 562 12 23/007 0.09 078 11/00 18 1014 574 11 562 12 22/006 0.13 084 11/06 16 1013 573 10 562 11 22/006 0.05 090 11/12 17 1013 572 9 561 11 23/004 0.01 096 11/18 23 1011 573 10 563 12 25/005 0.14 102 12/00 19 1011 573 9 564 13 22/006 0.12 108 12/06 13 1010 572 8 563 13 31/003 0.01 114 12/12 17 1012 570 7 561 12 04/003 0.00 120 12/18 22 1009 569 5 561 11 14/005 0.09 126 13/00 16 1010 567 3 558 10 04/006 0.31 132 13/06 12 1010 563 -1 555 7 01/010 0.13 138 13/12 10 1014 560 -4 548 4 01/012 0.03 144 13/18 17 1015 563 -1 550 4 00/014 0.00 150 14/00 11 1019 564 0 549 4 02/008 0.00 156 14/06 3 1020 564 -1 547 3 00/005 0.00 162 14/12 9 1020 565 1 548 4 12/003 0.00 168 14/18 19 1017 566 1 551 6 21/009 0.00 174 15/00 14 1015 566 2 554 7 18/009 0.01 180 15/06 10 1011 565 1 556 8 21/015 0.08 Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 91.6 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 10/06 10/12 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 4 6 9 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 700 MB (C) 0 2 3 5 5 6 6 5 5 3 1 500 MB (C) -14 -12 -11 -12 -11 -11 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -14 1000-500 THCK 553 558 561 561 560 564 565 562 561 562 564 561 559 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH -25/10 -13/24 -15/16 -28/04 -20/10 -7/27 -4/33 2/55 5/71 7/73 8/79 700 MB DP/RH -23/15 -25/11 -25/11 -23/12 -23/12 -20/14 -13/25 -11/30 -13/25 -17/22 -15/30 500 MB DP/RH -24/42 -24/36 -24/32 -24/34 -23/36 -23/37 -22/38 -22/40 -18/63 -20/61 -17/74 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 05/007 20/003 26/012 23/011 25/017 25/018 27/021 29/019 30/012 26/008 29/010 25/003 29/005 700 MB 04/021 03/013 00/003 25/007 24/017 26/023 29/024 26/018 28/021 28/019 28/016 500 MB 03/021 01/011 33/012 29/014 28/016 26/021 27/023 27/022 26/028 27/026 30/024 28/019 28/021 250 MB 02/058 01/045 02/032 03/014 31/008 27/008 28/013 27/020 29/030 28/033 29/055 30/043 31/033 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -14 -7 -14 -14 -8 4 -10 10 -10 5 -17 700 MB -32 -17 -11 -6 -22 2 2 24 4 -5 -12 500 MB -24 -22 -13 -7 2 10 -5 -4 -7 2 -1 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 152 148 147 143 144 142 145 146 153 167 188 MSL PRES (MB) 1031 1028 1026 1024 1023 1020 1018 1019 1019 1017 1017 1018 1018 500 MB HGT (DM) 579 581 583 582 580 582 580 578 578 578 578 577 574 500 MB ABS VORT 7.2 5.9 6.0 5.6 6.1 6.1 7.5 6.6 5.7 6.3 13.5 Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 91.6 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 10/06 10/12 10/18 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 6 10 13 11 11 13 12 12 12 12 12 700 MB (C) 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 500 MB (C) -11 -11 -11 -10 -10 -10 -11 -13 -13 -14 -14 1000-500 THCK 558 561 562 562 566 566 563 562 563 560 562 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH -13/24 -21/10 -25/05 -18/12 -7/27 -2/34 2/50 5/63 6/67 9/82 9/82 700 MB DP/RH -25/12 -31/06 -28/07 -22/12 -19/15 -16/19 -12/28 -12/30 -12/33 -7/51 -1/79 500 MB DP/RH -26/29 -26/28 -23/36 -20/47 -21/41 -24/30 -23/39 -20/53 -23/44 -16/88 -16/85 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.11 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.11 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 20/008 24/011 23/012 23/017 25/020 28/021 28/016 28/012 25/012 25/013 25/010 700 MB 03/013 01/003 26/008 25/015 25/020 27/021 26/017 27/018 26/020 28/016 26/016 500 MB 01/011 33/012 28/014 28/014 26/019 26/026 27/025 25/022 25/026 26/033 26/014 250 MB 01/045 01/037 01/017 35/010 21/009 23/019 25/020 27/022 28/030 27/040 27/026 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -23 -22 -14 -10 -6 -16 1 2 -1 10 6 700 MB -39 -15 -10 -16 -13 4 20 6 6 16 17 500 MB -42 -10 -5 -1 4 3 -3 8 6 4 15 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 147 147 143 145 142 145 147 150 156 182 189 MSL PRES (MB) 1028 1025 1024 1023 1020 1017 1019 1019 1017 1016 1015 500 MB HGT (DM) 581 582 582 582 582 581 580 578 577 574 575 500 MB ABS VORT 6.6 6.6 6.2 7.2 7.2 6.6 5.9 4.8 6.6 6.4 10.2 KALB ETA MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC DT /MAY 7/MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 45 77 51 79 58 TMP 67 71 65 56 50 47 53 65 74 77 71 62 57 53 59 69 76 77 71 62 64 DPT 31 32 34 37 38 38 41 43 42 43 44 46 46 46 49 50 51 51 51 55 57 CLD CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW CL CL SC SC SC SC BK WDR 18 20 21 17 18 18 18 20 21 19 20 19 20 18 19 20 20 22 23 18 20 WSP 05 09 06 05 04 04 05 08 11 12 11 08 06 03 05 05 08 08 08 05 06 P06 0 3 3 4 1 4 7 10 9 10 11 P12 3 4 11 14 17 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 0 2/ 4 8/10999/99 T12 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 3/ 4 999/99 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 12.6 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC HOUR VALID T2MF DP2M PMSL HT500 THCK TMP850 10M WD P03 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/12 46 35 1033 579 551 4 24/001 003 07/15 58 38 1031 581 554 5 22/002 0.00 006 07/18 63 37 1029 581 557 6 21/005 0.00 009 07/21 65 40 1027 583 559 7 21/006 0.00 012 08/00 57 42 1027 583 560 9 18/005 0.00 015 08/03 49 41 1027 583 560 11 19/005 0.00 018 08/06 46 39 1026 583 561 13 20/005 0.00 021 08/09 41 36 1026 582 560 11 19/005 0.00 024 08/12 51 42 1027 582 559 11 20/006 0.00 027 08/15 64 49 1025 583 562 10 23/005 0.00 030 08/18 71 50 1022 583 564 10 23/007 0.00 033 08/21 72 52 1020 582 565 11 20/008 0.00 036 09/00 65 49 1020 582 565 13 19/007 0.00 039 09/03 57 46 1021 582 564 13 20/007 0.00 042 09/06 52 45 1021 581 563 13 20/005 0.00 045 09/09 48 43 1021 579 561 11 20/004 0.00 048 09/12 57 47 1021 580 562 12 22/004 0.00 051 09/15 69 54 1020 580 563 12 21/005 0.00 054 09/18 75 56 1018 579 564 12 20/008 0.00 057 09/21 75 56 1016 578 564 12 20/008 0.00 060 10/00 69 55 1016 577 564 11 20/005 0.00 063 10/03 61 53 1017 577 562 11 20/005 0.00 066 10/06 60 55 1017 575 561 11 20/005 0.00 069 10/09 59 56 1017 574 560 11 19/004 0.00 072 10/12 65 61 1017 574 559 10 20/004 0.00 075 10/15 68 63 1017 575 560 11 21/004 0.07 078 10/18 69 63 1016 574 560 11 21/003 0.12 081 10/21 70 63 1015 573 560 11 22/001 0.05 084 11/00 67 63 1015 574 561 11 06/002 0.02 Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 12.6 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC HOUR VALID T2MF DP2M PMSL HT500 THCK TMP850 10M WD P03 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/18 64 38 1029 582 557 7 20/006 003 07/21 65 43 1027 582 559 9 20/008 0.00 006 08/00 57 43 1027 583 560 9 18/005 0.00 009 08/03 50 41 1027 584 561 11 19/005 0.00 012 08/06 45 38 1026 583 561 12 19/007 0.00 015 08/09 41 34 1026 582 560 12 19/005 0.00 018 08/12 50 40 1026 582 560 11 20/004 0.00 021 08/15 63 45 1025 583 562 11 21/006 0.00 024 08/18 70 48 1022 583 564 11 20/008 0.00 027 08/21 71 50 1020 582 566 12 20/009 0.00 030 09/00 63 47 1019 582 566 13 19/007 0.00 033 09/03 56 45 1021 582 565 12 20/006 0.00 036 09/06 50 44 1021 581 563 11 21/005 0.00 039 09/09 48 43 1021 579 562 11 19/004 0.00 042 09/12 57 48 1021 579 561 10 21/005 0.00 045 09/15 69 55 1020 580 563 11 21/005 0.00 048 09/18 75 56 1018 579 564 11 20/008 0.00 051 09/21 75 58 1015 577 564 12 20/008 0.00 054 10/00 69 56 1016 577 564 12 20/006 0.00 057 10/03 63 55 1017 577 562 11 20/006 0.00 060 10/06 59 56 1017 575 561 11 20/005 0.00 063 10/09 57 56 1017 574 560 10 20/004 0.00 066 10/12 64 60 1018 574 559 10 20/004 0.00 069 10/15 72 63 1017 575 560 11 22/005 0.02 072 10/18 73 61 1016 574 561 12 20/004 0.02 075 10/21 74 62 1014 573 561 12 21/003 0.01 078 11/00 70 61 1014 574 561 11 18/005 0.05 081 11/03 65 60 1015 574 561 11 20/005 0.09 084 11/06 61 58 1014 572 560 11 19/006 0.01 Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 22.3 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 2 M (F) 850 MB (C) 4 6 9 13 11 11 13 13 12 12 11 700 MB (C) 0 3 3 5 4 6 6 5 5 4 4 500 MB (C) -14 -12 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 1000-500 THCK 552 558 560 561 560 564 565 563 562 564 563 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 850 MB DP(C)/RH -24/11 -16/19 -16/16 -27/05 -20/09 -18/12 -17/11 -8/22 1/47 -2/38 5/63 700 MB DP(C)/RH -20/21 -34/05 -33/05 -33/04 -31/06 -37/03 -17/18 -17/19 -15/23 -17/20 -14/26 500 MB DP(C)/RH -23/49 -27/26 -29/21 -24/34 -20/49 -18/56 -18/57 -21/46 -21/49 -23/40 -28/25 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 04/007 20/003 26/014 24/012 26/017 26/020 26/021 29/015 30/005 23/012 26/018 700 MB 03/024 02/012 34/006 28/007 26/013 25/018 28/018 27/011 25/009 23/012 26/016 500 MB 02/025 01/004 30/013 29/015 28/015 28/019 26/020 26/023 26/021 24/024 25/028 250 MB 02/064 02/036 01/031 02/019 00/007 22/007 24/017 25/017 27/015 28/017 29/017 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1033.1 1028.4 1027.4 1026.8 1026.6 1022.1 1020.3 1021.0 1020.9 1017.4 1015.9 850 MB HGT 160 159 159 158 157 156 155 154 154 154 152 700 MB HGT 316 317 318 318 317 316 316 315 314 314 312 500 MB HGT 579 581 583 583 582 583 582 581 580 579 577 250 MB HGT 1070 1074 1078 1079 1079 1079 1078 1075 1072 1071 1069 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB 8 -8 -28 -9 -12 -24 -22 -14 -17 -5 -17 700 MB 2 -17 4 -7 -5 -15 8 5 -15 0 9 500 MB -4 -20 15 -17 2 1 2 16 -4 2 9 CONVECTION PARAMS LIFT INX SFC LIFT INX 4LYR CAPE SFC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CAPE 4LYR CIN SFC -4 -1 0 1 -1 3 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 CIN 4LYR HELICITY (0-3 KM) ALB EC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/07 1200 UTC DAY /MAY 7 /MAY 8 /MAY 9 / HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MN/MX 43 80 51 79 TEMP 72 74 66 57 51 47 54 67 76 79 72 62 57 54 60 70 75 76 70 DEWPT 33 31 32 35 36 36 39 39 38 38 40 44 46 46 48 50 51 51 51 CLDS CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC WDIR 18 18 19 17 16 16 17 17 17 19 18 17 16 18 17 20 20 23 21 WSPD 05 11 06 11 08 08 10 12 12 11 10 09 06 03 06 05 07 10 10 POP06 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 12 POP12 0 0 5 16 QPF 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 TSV06 0/11 0/ 0 0/ 6 0/ 2 3/ 3 5/ 8 2/ 1 5/ 2 14/23 TSV12 0/11 0/ 7 6/ 8 6/ 2 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R POZP 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POSN 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 CIG 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 VIS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 OBVIS N N N N N N N N N N N N N Station: ALB Lat: 42.75 Lon: -73.80 Elev: 92 Closest grid pt: 22.3 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 1000 MB (C) 10 18 19 16 11 21 22 17 16 850 MB (C) 4 6 8 10 9 9 10 10 10 700 MB (C) 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 500 MB (C) -14 -11 -11 -13 -12 -12 -12 -13 -13 1000-500 THCK 5530 5598 5615 5619 5609 5648 5660 5634 5624 MOISTURE 1000 MB DP(C)/RH -2/42 0/30 1/29 1/37 2/52 2/29 4/31 5/45 6/52 850 MB DP(C)/RH -23/12 -12/26 -4/42 -9/25 -9/26 -5/37 0/47 3/59 6/77 700 MB DP(C)/RH -22/18 -28/08 -31/06 -27/09 -24/11 -25/09 -20/14 -13/28 -12/32 500 MB DP(C)/RH -23/48 -24/34 -24/34 -21/50 -20/53 -20/52 -19/56 -16/82 -18/69 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.36 0.41 0.50 0.58 0.76 0.86 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 1000 MB 23/004 22/003 22/012 22/022 25/014 23/010 23/019 25/022 27/015 850 MB 04/005 27/001 25/010 24/012 26/018 25/021 26/020 29/022 30/014 700 MB 03/021 02/013 00/004 24/007 26/015 26/018 27/020 27/018 28/017 500 MB 02/023 00/007 32/013 31/013 27/015 28/020 27/019 26/020 26/025 250 MB 02/057 02/037 01/026 36/018 33/009 26/012 25/019 25/019 27/020 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1031.7 1027.8 1026.3 1026.3 1026.9 1023.7 1021.4 1022.8 1022.0 850 MB HGT 159 159 159 158 157 158 156 157 156 700 MB HGT 316 317 318 318 317 318 317 316 315 500 MB HGT 579 583 583 583 583 584 583 582 580 250 MB HGT 1069 1076 1079 1079 1079 1079 1078 1075 1071 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -4 -19 -7 -7 -2 1 -2 -1 700 MB -9 -17 -11 -3 -2 3 -1 6 500 MB -22 -5 -10 -5 0 6 13 9 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 146 140 140 138 134 136 137 140 143 500 MB ABS VOR () 6.9 6.6 7.4 6.3 6.0 6.8 5.5 4.7 5.1 1000 MB LI (K) 293 289 287 289 292 284 283 285 285 KALB GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 07| TUE 08| WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14 CLIMO X/N 72| 39 80| 51 81| 55 76| 57 74| 51 68| 42 67| 47 70 44 69 TMP 64| 50 71| 59 74| 61 68| 60 66| 55 61| 48 62| 53 64 DPT 33| 38 39| 48 49| 52 54| 54 52| 47 41| 38 42| 44 47 CLD CL| CL CL| CL PC| PC OV| OV PC| CL CL| CL PC| CL OV WND 8| 6 13| 9 7| 5 7| 8 11| 11 10| 6 10| 17 20 P12 1| 4 6| 8 8| 20 35| 40 41| 27 16| 19 10| 20 33 28 29 P24 | 10| 17| 41| 53| 38| 19| 46 43 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 2| 0| | T12 0| 0 0| 0 6| 3 14| 15 24| 9 4| 2 5| 4 17 T24 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 9 PZP 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 1 0 PSN 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 PRS 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 1| 0 4| 1 1 TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| | | KALB GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 TUE 08| WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14|TUE CLIMO N/X 40 79| 52 79| 56 83| 59 80| 57 72| 43 66| 44 66| 51 44 69 TMP 51 72| 58 73| 62 74| 64 71| 61 65| 51 60| 50 60| 55 DPT 36 42| 50 52| 54 52| 57 54| 53 47| 39 37| 40 44| 48 WND 6 14| 10 8| 6 6| 6 10| 7 11| 8 11| 11 13| 12 P12 3 4| 7 9| 30 22| 23 42| 34 34| 23 14| 24 27| 39 28 29 P24 8| 9| 46| 51| 56| 32| 41| 43 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 1| 1| 1| 0| | T12 0 0| 1 6| 5 17| 11 36| 14 12| 6 3| 3 12| 8 T24 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 13 SNW 0| 0| 9| 9| 9| | | Specified grid files of unknown type. Check WEATHER configuration. FXUS61 KALY 072023 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 420 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT WITH MORE FROST ISSUES...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY TOMORROW. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY OR POSSIBLY FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY A THIN SHEATH OF CIRRUS IS MARRING AN OTHERWISE CLOUDLESS SKY. NOT MUCH TO SAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS SUPREME AND WILL MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR DAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SO WITH A CLEAR SKY...AND DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 32...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO TO A SLIGHT BREEZE AND BE A BIT MILDER. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ERGO...WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV NOS. BY TUESDAY...A COMMENCING SSW FLOW WILL SEND H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +11C TO +12C. A SW BREEZE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...A S WIND WILL LIKELY TURN SW BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN BOOSTING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH A DECAYING WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. AN UNUSUALLY SOUTH DISPLACED UPPER AIR LOW WILL ACTUALLY DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ENERGY FROM THIS CUTOFF MIGHT ATTEMPT TO CARVE OUT A HYBRID WARM CORE SYSTEM. FOR US...NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND...AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DAY TIME HIGHS THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WED AFTERNOON. WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH WED NITE...DECIDED TO THROW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK IN...AND KEEP IT IN THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE 06Z GFS AND EVEN EUROPEAN GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ERGO THIS SHOULD BE THE BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER THINKING WAS THE COLD FRONT WOULD CONTINUE TO SLIP TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS INDEED MIGHT WORK. THE 12Z GFS STILL KEEPS THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF AND ANY SURFACE STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS PARTICULAR RUN HAS STALLED THE FRONT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...FINALLY PUSHING COMPLETELY SOUTH BY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...OPTIMISTIC THAT BOTH WEEKEND DAYS COULD BE DRY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER TOP OF RIDGE FROM TIME TO TIME. A SOUTH WIND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL BECOME CALM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING WHILE A LIGHT SSW PERSISTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. A SSW WIND PICK UP A BIT...TO AROUND 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE. .WED...VFR NO SIG WX. .THU...VFR NO SIG WX. .FRI...MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SAT...VFR NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUST SSW WINDS 12-24 MPH. DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE TONIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RECOVERY. HOWEVER...AVERAGE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WIND WILL START OUT LIGHT TOMORROW AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO BETWEEN 12-24 MPH. AFTER SOME RECOVERY TUESDAY NIGHT...RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP AS LOW ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS) IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORM TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE DOMINATES. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TOWARD BASE FLOW LEVELS. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ013. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ041-043- 049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM HYDROLOGY...BGM NYZ052-080830- EASTERN ALBANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBANY 425 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUTLYING AREAS. LOWS 35 TO 40. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. .SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 07/2024 ALB UU 040/080 052/080 055 010-1 done