starting weather Mon May 7 23:02:00 GMT 2007 KILM 071153Z 36015G24KT 10SM CLR 09/02 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP216 T00940022 10094 20072 56007= KILM 071253Z 01018G26KT 10SM CLR 12/01 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/1242 SLP216 T01220011= KILM 071353Z 36013G26KT 10SM CLR 14/01 A3014 RMK AO2 PK WND 03029/1302 SLP204 T01440011= KILM 071453Z 02019G24KT 10SM CLR 17/02 A3014 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1438 SLP205 T01670017 55011= KILM 071553Z 36017G27KT 10SM CLR 17/02 A3014 RMK AO2 PK WND 02032/1457 SLP205 T01720017= KILM 071653Z 01019G32KT 10SM CLR 19/02 A3011 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1634 SLP197 T01890017= KILM 071753Z 02021G31KT 10SM CLR 21/03 A3011 RMK AO2 PK WND 34034/1712 SLP195 T02060028 10206 20094 58010= KILM 071853Z 36019G30KT 10SM CLR 21/02 A3008 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1824 SLP186 T02110022= KILM 071953Z 01022G36KT 10SM CLR 20/01 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1950 SLP181 T02000011= KILM 072053Z 01016G28KT 10SM FEW070 21/00 A3005 RMK AO2 PK WND 03037/2006 SLP175 T02060000 56019= KILM 072153Z 02022G36KT 10SM OVC060 19/01 A3005 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/2149 SLP176 T01890006= KILM 072253Z 02020G31KT 10SM OVC050 18/01 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 03036/2214 SLP179 T01780011= KILM GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC DT /MAY 7/MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 52 69 62 75 60 TMP 66 66 60 56 53 53 56 63 66 68 66 65 64 63 65 70 71 72 70 62 64 DPT 40 43 44 45 46 46 48 53 58 58 58 59 60 60 61 63 63 62 62 61 63 CLD SC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC OV WDR 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 04 06 06 05 06 06 06 06 07 10 10 09 06 03 WSP 25 22 20 22 23 20 19 17 18 15 15 14 15 12 11 11 13 10 07 04 04 P06 34 40 37 17 24 24 41 24 31 15 16 P12 45 36 48 36 19 Q06 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Q12 1 0 1 0 0 T06 6/20 15/ 5 16/ 0 12/12 19/23 24/ 5 21/ 0 16/12 20/23 5/ 0 T12 20/20 24/12 28/23 31/12 24/23 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 0 CIG 8 8 6 6 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 5 1 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N BR KILM GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1800 UTC DT /MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 53 69 61 75 62 TMP 57 55 54 54 56 64 66 68 67 64 62 61 64 71 73 73 71 67 64 65 77 DPT 43 42 45 46 46 52 58 58 59 59 58 59 61 63 63 63 63 63 62 63 63 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK SC SC SC OV BK WDR 02 02 02 03 03 04 05 06 05 06 06 06 06 09 11 12 10 07 06 04 10 WSP 19 23 21 19 21 17 19 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 14 11 07 04 03 05 08 P06 54 35 23 33 37 44 21 13 14 17 11 P12 54 36 53 34 21 Q06 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 2 0 1 0 0 T06 22/ 2 17/ 0 18/11 28/20 23/ 4 20/ 0 14/11 14/22 7/ 7 6/11 T12 28/11 35/20 37/11 19/22 10/11 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 1 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 27.9 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P06 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/12 11 1022 569 -8 550 6 02/028 006 07/18 17 1021 571 -5 553 4 02/029 0.00 012 08/00 14 1018 572 -4 557 9 02/032 0.02 018 08/06 13 1016 573 -3 559 11 02/032 0.16 024 08/12 15 1015 573 -4 560 9 03/029 0.09 030 08/18 20 1015 574 -2 561 10 05/021 0.04 036 09/00 19 1014 573 -3 561 10 06/022 0.14 042 09/06 20 1014 574 -3 562 11 09/022 0.17 048 09/12 20 1014 574 -2 562 11 09/017 0.32 054 09/18 24 1014 577 0 564 12 11/016 0.22 060 10/00 21 1014 576 -1 564 12 12/012 0.06 066 10/06 20 1015 575 -2 563 11 10/011 0.03 072 10/12 21 1015 575 -2 562 11 06/006 0.02 078 10/18 24 1015 577 0 564 11 12/010 0.05 084 11/00 21 1014 577 0 565 12 13/008 0.00 090 11/06 20 1015 577 0 564 11 14/009 0.00 096 11/12 22 1016 577 0 564 12 12/002 0.01 102 11/18 24 1015 578 0 565 12 13/010 0.03 108 12/00 22 1014 578 0 566 13 16/010 0.01 114 12/06 20 1014 577 0 565 12 20/008 0.00 120 12/12 21 1014 578 0 566 13 23/004 0.00 126 12/18 26 1012 578 1 568 13 19/010 0.00 132 13/00 23 1012 579 1 569 14 19/012 0.02 138 13/06 21 1011 578 0 568 13 21/012 0.00 144 13/12 21 1012 578 0 567 13 23/007 0.00 150 13/18 23 1012 578 0 567 13 06/002 0.21 156 14/00 20 1014 578 0 567 13 08/007 0.37 162 14/06 20 1013 577 -1 566 12 07/006 0.26 168 14/12 21 1013 577 -1 565 13 16/007 0.93 174 14/18 21 1013 576 -2 565 12 27/004 0.48 180 15/00 20 1013 577 -1 566 13 22/004 0.11 Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 27.9 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P06 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/18 18 1020 571 -5 554 4 02/029 006 08/00 13 1017 572 -5 557 9 02/034 0.03 012 08/06 13 1015 572 -4 559 10 02/032 0.19 018 08/12 15 1014 572 -5 560 9 03/028 0.07 024 08/18 20 1013 572 -4 561 10 06/025 0.07 030 09/00 20 1012 572 -5 562 10 07/025 0.33 036 09/06 20 1012 573 -4 563 11 10/025 0.29 042 09/12 21 1013 574 -3 563 11 11/021 0.35 048 09/18 23 1014 576 -1 564 12 13/021 0.31 054 10/00 21 1013 576 -1 564 12 13/013 0.05 060 10/06 20 1013 575 -2 564 12 10/006 0.00 066 10/12 20 1014 575 -2 563 11 07/005 0.02 072 10/18 25 1014 576 -1 564 12 16/004 0.04 078 11/00 21 1013 576 -1 565 13 17/007 0.07 084 11/06 20 1013 576 -1 565 12 17/008 0.00 090 11/12 21 1014 577 0 565 12 24/003 0.00 096 11/18 25 1014 578 1 566 12 18/007 0.01 102 12/00 22 1013 579 2 568 13 18/011 0.02 108 12/06 21 1013 579 1 567 13 21/011 0.00 114 12/12 21 1014 579 2 568 13 23/007 0.00 120 12/18 26 1012 579 2 569 14 21/012 0.01 126 13/00 23 1011 578 1 569 15 21/014 0.06 132 13/06 22 1010 577 -1 568 15 22/015 0.00 138 13/12 22 1010 576 -2 567 14 25/011 0.01 144 13/18 25 1010 575 -3 567 14 25/005 0.22 150 14/00 21 1012 576 -2 566 13 04/014 0.31 156 14/06 17 1014 575 -3 564 12 05/021 0.38 162 14/12 17 1016 577 -1 564 12 05/021 0.11 168 14/18 20 1017 578 0 564 11 07/021 0.06 174 15/00 20 1016 579 1 566 12 08/017 0.02 180 15/06 19 1015 578 0 565 13 05/011 0.00 Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 80.4 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 10/06 10/12 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 5 5 7 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 700 MB (C) -1 -1 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 500 MB (C) -16 -14 -15 -15 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -13 -13 -13 -13 1000-500 THCK 551 556 557 559 561 561 560 563 560 564 565 563 561 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH -5/49 0/69 3/72 7/82 8/91 8/83 8/81 7/74 10/88 8/75 8/77 700 MB DP/RH -16/30 -8/59 -4/67 -3/70 -6/53 -3/67 -4/65 -4/60 -4/61 -4/56 -6/50 500 MB DP/RH -38/13 -21/56 -18/74 -20/67 -27/31 -28/30 -25/40 -22/49 -20/61 -20/54 -25/34 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.02 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.03 0.05 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 05/041 05/039 05/044 07/043 08/036 09/031 09/026 11/027 11/023 12/023 12/019 13/015 07/013 700 MB 05/035 05/035 06/038 07/036 08/042 09/035 10/028 12/031 13/032 11/011 13/012 500 MB 03/052 06/052 07/046 06/043 07/039 08/034 09/029 10/025 10/022 10/015 08/016 08/017 08/014 250 MB 03/062 05/068 06/068 06/069 07/070 08/045 08/032 07/026 05/030 07/022 03/027 04/039 05/033 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -15 -26 -18 -11 -10 38 2 19 3 -23 10 700 MB -17 -15 -1 -3 -15 16 -4 0 11 -34 6 500 MB -24 -4 35 -2 -8 -11 -16 -2 0 5 -21 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 193 168 188 177 180 186 206 203 204 194 163 MSL PRES (MB) 1021 1020 1017 1015 1016 1015 1013 1014 1014 1013 1014 1015 1015 500 MB HGT (DM) 568 572 572 572 574 573 573 575 574 576 577 576 575 500 MB ABS VORT 19.4 14.2 12.1 10.4 12.1 11.9 11.4 11.6 12.4 12.2 12.3 Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 80.4 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 10/06 10/12 10/18 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 5 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 700 MB (C) 0 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 500 MB (C) -14 -14 -14 -13 -14 -14 -13 -13 -13 -13 -12 1000-500 THCK 555 558 559 560 561 562 562 562 564 563 564 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH 0/69 5/78 8/85 9/92 7/83 8/84 8/83 9/85 8/79 9/81 9/84 700 MB DP/RH -7/59 -2/77 -1/80 -4/60 -4/63 -2/73 -4/60 -2/74 -5/55 -2/67 -3/61 500 MB DP/RH -22/51 -18/73 -19/62 -28/28 -25/40 -22/51 -21/54 -19/60 -25/36 -21/52 -22/44 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.01 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.07 0.10 0.11 0.05 0.07 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.08 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.07 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 04/044 06/047 07/042 08/040 09/031 10/030 12/032 14/026 15/024 12/010 19/004 700 MB 05/040 06/038 07/035 08/042 09/033 10/030 12/033 13/026 15/022 11/015 12/003 500 MB 06/047 05/043 06/048 07/042 09/040 11/036 12/029 13/026 12/022 07/017 03/010 250 MB 05/065 06/067 06/075 07/070 09/055 10/038 09/029 09/020 07/017 03/032 01/036 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -25 -32 -5 1 25 25 30 1 14 24 29 700 MB -12 -15 14 -14 4 -1 3 -10 -2 14 27 500 MB -5 23 -11 -5 -11 -9 -1 -11 -12 0 3 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 170 186 191 190 190 208 203 200 201 175 169 MSL PRES (MB) 1020 1017 1015 1014 1013 1012 1012 1013 1014 1013 1014 500 MB HGT (DM) 572 572 572 572 572 572 573 574 576 575 576 500 MB ABS VORT 15.6 12.0 10.3 12.6 16.6 14.7 13.2 12.9 10.0 10.3 10.6 KILM ETA MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC DT /MAY 7/MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 56 69 64 73 64 TMP 62 61 57 56 57 57 60 63 66 69 67 65 66 66 67 69 70 70 70 67 67 DPT 45 44 43 44 50 51 53 57 60 59 60 62 63 63 63 65 66 66 66 65 65 CLD SC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 36 36 01 01 01 01 02 03 03 04 04 03 03 03 04 06 10 10 09 05 06 WSP 26 21 22 21 24 21 20 20 20 15 13 12 15 15 16 16 17 12 11 08 09 P06 17 27 41 22 25 30 42 54 55 39 28 P12 41 35 42 71 57 Q06 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 3 1 1 Q12 1 0 1 5 2 T06 0/15 2/ 5 5/ 0 4/ 9 3/23 15/10 32/ 0 18/10 10/25999/99 T12 7/15 8/ 9 15/23 33/10 999/99 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 8 7 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N BR N N N N N Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 10.9 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC HOUR VALID T2MF DP2M PMSL HT500 THCK TMP850 10M WD P03 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/12 52 37 1021 569 551 7 00/019 003 07/15 60 38 1021 570 552 7 01/022 0.00 006 07/18 68 41 1020 572 555 7 01/023 0.00 009 07/21 68 41 1018 572 556 9 02/022 0.00 012 08/00 62 38 1019 573 557 9 01/023 0.00 015 08/03 58 30 1018 574 558 10 02/022 0.00 018 08/06 56 33 1017 574 559 11 02/020 0.00 021 08/09 55 44 1016 573 559 11 02/018 0.00 024 08/12 59 53 1016 573 560 11 02/019 0.00 027 08/15 67 60 1017 574 560 10 03/019 0.00 030 08/18 73 64 1016 574 560 10 06/019 0.01 033 08/21 73 64 1015 573 560 10 06/018 0.01 036 09/00 70 66 1015 574 561 10 06/016 0.02 039 09/03 70 65 1015 575 562 11 06/015 0.08 042 09/06 71 64 1014 574 562 11 07/014 0.09 045 09/09 69 64 1014 574 562 11 09/014 0.14 048 09/12 70 66 1014 575 563 11 08/012 0.12 051 09/15 74 66 1015 576 563 11 10/016 0.09 054 09/18 77 67 1015 576 563 12 11/017 0.01 057 09/21 75 67 1014 576 564 12 12/012 0.04 060 10/00 73 65 1014 576 564 12 10/012 0.03 063 10/03 71 66 1014 577 565 12 09/011 0.02 066 10/06 71 67 1014 576 565 12 12/009 0.29 069 10/09 70 67 1013 576 565 12 12/006 0.05 072 10/12 72 67 1014 577 565 12 12/008 0.06 075 10/15 74 68 1015 578 565 12 11/009 0.05 078 10/18 75 68 1015 578 566 13 11/009 0.05 081 10/21 75 69 1014 578 566 13 12/008 0.08 084 11/00 73 68 1014 578 566 13 12/007 0.06 Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 10.9 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC HOUR VALID T2MF DP2M PMSL HT500 THCK TMP850 10M WD P03 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/18 69 39 1019 571 555 8 02/024 003 07/21 68 40 1019 572 556 9 02/023 0.00 006 08/00 62 38 1018 572 557 9 02/022 0.00 009 08/03 58 32 1017 573 558 10 02/021 0.00 012 08/06 56 35 1017 573 559 11 02/019 0.00 015 08/09 54 44 1016 572 558 11 02/017 0.00 018 08/12 59 53 1015 573 560 11 03/018 0.00 021 08/15 68 61 1016 573 560 10 03/018 0.00 024 08/18 74 64 1015 574 561 10 05/019 0.02 027 08/21 74 65 1014 573 561 10 06/018 0.01 030 09/00 71 64 1014 573 561 10 06/015 0.02 033 09/03 69 61 1014 574 562 11 06/016 0.01 036 09/06 70 63 1013 574 562 11 07/016 0.09 039 09/09 71 65 1013 573 563 11 08/015 0.12 042 09/12 72 67 1014 574 562 11 08/014 0.00 045 09/15 77 67 1015 575 563 12 09/017 0.00 048 09/18 78 66 1015 575 563 12 10/017 0.00 051 09/21 77 67 1013 575 564 12 11/014 0.00 054 10/00 73 68 1013 576 565 12 10/012 0.01 057 10/03 71 67 1015 577 564 12 10/011 0.00 060 10/06 71 66 1014 576 564 12 10/010 0.02 063 10/09 70 66 1013 575 564 12 12/006 0.06 066 10/12 70 65 1014 576 564 12 10/006 0.03 069 10/15 75 65 1014 577 565 12 10/008 0.03 072 10/18 77 66 1014 577 566 12 10/011 0.02 075 10/21 73 68 1013 577 566 13 11/010 0.13 078 11/00 72 68 1013 577 566 13 10/007 0.04 081 11/03 70 68 1014 578 566 13 08/006 0.00 084 11/06 67 66 1014 578 566 13 07/005 0.00 Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 24.7 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 2 M (F) 850 MB (C) 6 7 9 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 700 MB (C) -1 -1 -1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 500 MB (C) -16 -15 -14 -13 -13 -13 -13 -12 -12 -11 -11 1000-500 THCK 552 555 557 560 560 561 561 562 562 563 564 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 850 MB DP(C)/RH -5/43 3/75 7/89 8/86 7/78 6/73 6/76 8/82 8/79 9/82 8/74 700 MB DP(C)/RH -20/23 -11/44 -2/96 -2/76 -4/68 -5/61 -4/68 0/84 -2/75 -2/70 -3/65 500 MB DP(C)/RH -43/08 -23/50 -17/77 -18/66 -20/55 -23/43 -15/84 -13/93 -14/81 -15/72 -16/67 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.11 0.18 0.10 0.09 6HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.11 0.22 0.10 0.09 12HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.34 0.20 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 05/040 05/045 06/051 08/046 08/043 09/040 10/037 12/037 12/030 13/029 13/025 700 MB 04/035 05/037 07/039 07/044 08/044 08/042 09/037 12/027 12/025 13/022 13/018 500 MB 03/058 06/049 06/047 06/046 07/045 08/042 10/028 11/022 12/019 12/014 11/011 250 MB 04/078 05/062 06/065 07/065 07/055 10/027 15/016 14/014 19/012 25/012 25/017 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1021.3 1020.3 1019.1 1017.2 1015.4 1015.4 1014.8 1014.2 1014.2 1014.8 1013.4 850 MB HGT 151 152 152 151 150 151 150 150 150 151 150 700 MB HGT 308 310 310 310 309 310 309 310 310 311 310 500 MB HGT 569 572 573 574 573 574 574 574 575 576 576 250 MB HGT 1053 1057 1060 1061 1061 1063 1065 1066 1067 1069 1069 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -30 -23 -17 -21 -8 32 19 31 10 45 20 700 MB -18 -24 -11 -20 -16 7 10 3 -4 21 13 500 MB -43 -50 -23 -24 -6 -16 -11 17 -14 -3 -9 CONVECTION PARAMS LIFT INX SFC LIFT INX 4LYR CAPE SFC 0 0 0 0 0 495 559 244 439 1063 489 CAPE 4LYR CIN SFC -4 -1 0 1 -10 3 -1 -9 -3 -3 -5 CIN 4LYR HELICITY (0-3 KM) ILM E NGM MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/07 1200 UTC DAY /MAY 7 /MAY 8 /MAY 9 / HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MN/MX 57 68 58 70 TEMP 64 64 60 59 59 59 61 62 64 64 60 60 62 60 62 68 67 66 64 DEWPT 42 45 48 51 52 53 54 54 53 54 55 57 59 58 59 57 57 56 56 CLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDIR 01 02 04 03 03 03 03 04 05 06 06 05 03 05 04 05 07 07 08 WSPD 24 25 22 25 21 19 23 21 19 19 16 15 12 12 12 13 16 14 11 POP06 11 7 8 7 11 13 14 17 31 POP12 12 14 22 38 QPF 0/ 0/ 0/1 4/ 0/0 0/ 1/1 0/ 0/0 TSV06 21/ 2 21/ 5 32/ 0 48/ 0 32/ 8 18/ 4 15/ 3 25/ 4 28/ 2 TSV12 32/ 5 54/ 0 38/10 27/ 7 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R POZP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 CIG 7 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 VIS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 OBVIS N N N N N N N N N N N N N Station: ILM Lat: 34.27 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 9 Closest grid pt: 24.7 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 1000 MB (C) 9 17 17 15 16 21 19 19 19 850 MB (C) 6 5 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 700 MB (C) -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 500 MB (C) -16 -15 -15 -15 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16 1000-500 THCK 5521 5552 5567 5577 5580 5590 5591 5594 5586 MOISTURE 1000 MB DP(C)/RH 2/61 5/44 7/55 10/72 13/83 15/70 18/91 17/89 17/90 850 MB DP(C)/RH -6/41 2/82 5/89 8/96 8/98 8/96 8/92 6/82 5/77 700 MB DP(C)/RH -22/19 -11/45 -5/70 -1/89 -3/81 -7/61 -13/35 -10/42 -8/54 500 MB DP(C)/RH -45/06 -25/44 -21/61 -21/60 -25/43 -29/31 -23/54 -24/51 -24/53 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 0.39 0.77 1.02 1.24 1.24 1.17 1.15 1.16 1.17 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 1000 MB 01/029 02/025 03/031 04/029 05/023 06/017 08/018 09/016 08/015 850 MB 05/039 05/046 06/046 08/044 09/038 09/031 10/026 11/021 11/018 700 MB 04/036 06/038 07/038 08/041 08/040 09/037 11/032 12/028 12/024 500 MB 03/057 06/049 06/048 07/051 08/045 09/043 10/034 11/032 11/032 250 MB 04/069 05/064 06/069 06/076 07/072 09/050 09/037 09/035 10/033 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1021.5 1020.0 1019.5 1019.3 1018.6 1018.8 1018.4 1019.0 1019.3 850 MB HGT 152 152 152 152 152 154 153 154 154 700 MB HGT 309 310 310 310 311 312 312 312 312 500 MB HGT 570 572 573 573 573 574 574 575 574 250 MB HGT 1054 1058 1060 1060 1058 1059 1059 1058 1056 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -19 -12 4 3 40 20 7 1 700 MB -16 -7 -5 -1 22 6 6 7 500 MB -27 15 -20 -8 10 3 -1 -9 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 150 161 161 166 168 152 162 169 170 500 MB ABS VOR () 17.4 13.1 11.6 11.6 12.5 12.8 14.1 14.0 12.2 1000 MB LI (K) 289 282 281 280 276 271 269 269 270 FXUS62 KILM 071930 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 330 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND WEAKEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... GFS/WRF DRIFT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY 6 AM TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST THE BAND OF SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR AREA OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH LIFEGUARDS ALREADY HAVE REPORTED 6-8 FT BREAKING SURF AND WITH THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY NOW UP TO 16 FOOTERS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 16 SECONDS IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OBVIOUS FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BANDS OF FORCING/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR POPS AND WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM...DONT KNOW HOW MUCH VALUE GUIDANCE IS GOING TO BE. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES SITUATED ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH HOWEVER AS A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST AND A JOG OF A FEW MILES TO THE EAST/WEST OR NORTH/SOUTH WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UPPER LOW AND REMNANTS OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. THOUGH UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. FOR NOW KEEPING GOING WITH HPC SUGGESTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AS THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED SPEED OF FRONT AND NOW SHOWS FROPA ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HAVE STUCK CLOSE HPC SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY WITH GUST TO 30 KTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...UNLIKE THE PAST NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BY ABOUT 09Z...WITH VCSH COASTAL TERMINALS LATE. AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS 20-35 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENS BUT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... STRONG GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSTM DRIFTS TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE. CONDITIONS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS AS THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW COUNTERS THE GULF STREAM SUPPORTING EXTREME WAVE GROWTH. LATEST FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY INDICATES WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 16 FT...CLOSER TO SHORE THE CORMP/USMC BUOY IS REGISTERING 8 FOOTERS. EXPECT THE WAVES TO INCREASE A FEW MORE FEET DURING THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FROM OPC/HPC. USING THESE NUMBERS...STRONG GALES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR ALL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...WELL WHAT CAN YOU SAY...EARLY ON 13-15 FEET OUTER WATERS WITH A GRADUAL DROP OFF INTO THE 8-10 FOOT RANGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF LOW TO THE SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH ONLY WEAK COASTAL TROF IN THE VICINITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RESULT IN FALLING SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE 4 TO 6 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SEAS QUICKLY FALLING BELOW 4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ034-046. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ034-046. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ097-100-101. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ097-100-101. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ AVIATION...JAN SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...III NCZ101-080615- NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 611 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING... THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 07/1924 ILM EE 052/067 063/073 064 29444 done