starting weather Mon May 7 23:03:00 GMT 2007 KOKC 071152Z 15006KT 5SM R35R/6000VP6000FT TSRA BR FEW005 BKN015CB OVC085 18/16 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP148 FRQ LTGCGIC ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV NE P0049 60219 70219 T01780161 10244 20172 51017= KOKC 071252Z 11011KT 10SM TSRA SCT035 BKN050CB BKN120 18/16 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP146 FRQ LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV NE P0013 T01780161= KOKC 071352Z 07011KT 10SM FEW030 BKN055CB BKN120 OVC270 18/16 A2995 RMK AO2 TSE23RAE29 SLP131 TS MOV NE CB NW-NE-SE MOV NE P0001 T01780161= KOKC 071452Z 09011KT 10SM OVC005 18/16 A3009 RMK AO2 PK WND 09027/1408 CIG 005V009 SLP179 CB MOV NE 60014 T01830161 53029= KOKC 071552Z 09012KT 10SM FEW008 OVC130 20/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP169 T02000167= KOKC 071652Z 10010KT 10SM FEW011 BKN032 OVC130 21/17 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP166 T02060167= KOKC 071752Z 12012KT 10SM FEW011 OVC030 21/17 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP185 60014 T02060167 10217 20172 53006= KOKC 071852Z 11013KT 10SM TS BKN015 BKN035CB 19/16 A3009 RMK AO2 TSB34 PRESFR SLP177 OCNL LTGICCG E-SE TS E-SE MOV NE T01940161= KOKC 071952Z 35004KT 10SM FEW015 SCT035 OVC130 21/16 A3005 RMK AO2 TSE16 SLP167 TS DSPTD T02060161= KOKC 072052Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW015 SCT035 OVC130 22/17 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP166 T02220172 56020= KOKC 072152Z 16009KT 10SM SCT015 BKN035 BKN130 OVC250 23/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP172 T02280172= KOKC 072252Z 16008KT 10SM FEW015 SCT130 BKN250 23/17 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP167 T02280172= KOKC GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC DT /MAY 7/MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 63 75 61 73 58 TMP 73 76 75 69 67 65 64 66 70 72 70 65 63 63 62 64 67 70 69 62 59 DPT 63 64 64 64 63 62 61 60 59 59 58 59 59 59 59 60 60 59 59 59 58 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 11 13 10 04 07 36 01 04 09 03 04 04 05 02 02 05 16 21 24 22 23 WSP 09 08 07 09 09 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 08 07 07 08 08 09 07 05 04 P06 38 57 50 30 33 37 32 19 34 25 30 P12 67 44 47 34 45 Q06 1 4 3 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 Q12 4 2 1 1 3 T06 40/17 50/32 30/ 8 14/15 21/10 20/24 19/ 6 13/15 18/11 15/ 7 T12 69/32 42/15 42/24 19/15 26/26 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 0 CIG 4 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 4 5 6 8 6 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N BR N N N N N KOKC GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1800 UTC DT /MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 61 70 57 73 59 TMP 73 68 65 63 62 63 65 67 67 62 61 59 58 64 68 71 70 64 63 61 72 DPT 65 63 60 59 58 56 53 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 55 56 56 57 58 58 59 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV BK OV BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 09 09 10 35 35 36 35 30 35 05 01 35 35 02 08 13 15 11 18 01 13 WSP 07 06 07 09 09 08 07 12 09 04 04 04 05 07 06 06 06 04 03 05 09 P06 52 54 17 14 5 14 20 26 31 39 42 P12 70 21 22 35 52 Q06 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 Q12 4 0 0 1 3 T06 66/33 49/ 7 10/14 4/10 7/25 9/ 6 9/13 10/11 8/27 13/15 T12 49/14 8/25 10/13 15/27 23/15 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N HZ N Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 50.3 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P06 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/12 20 1014 582 6 570 17 11/006 006 07/18 24 1016 583 7 569 15 09/006 0.02 012 08/00 23 1014 582 7 571 16 10/005 0.45 018 08/06 21 1016 582 7 569 15 28/004 2.43 024 08/12 18 1017 581 6 567 14 35/008 0.67 030 08/18 21 1018 582 7 567 14 06/005 0.07 036 09/00 18 1015 580 5 568 13 02/011 0.39 042 09/06 17 1015 581 6 568 15 08/004 0.20 048 09/12 17 1015 580 4 567 14 05/008 0.07 054 09/18 20 1016 580 4 567 14 19/002 0.07 060 10/00 18 1014 578 2 566 13 23/006 0.11 066 10/06 16 1015 578 1 565 14 24/006 0.03 072 10/12 15 1015 574 -2 562 12 24/006 0.14 078 10/18 22 1015 575 -1 562 12 25/004 0.11 084 11/00 22 1013 574 -3 563 13 05/001 0.21 090 11/06 14 1014 574 -2 563 13 30/003 0.00 096 11/12 14 1015 574 -3 561 12 35/006 0.00 102 11/18 21 1015 576 0 564 11 32/005 0.02 108 12/00 22 1013 577 0 566 13 02/006 0.06 114 12/06 17 1015 579 2 566 13 04/005 0.00 120 12/12 16 1016 579 2 565 13 02/006 0.00 126 12/18 24 1016 580 3 566 13 04/004 0.04 132 13/00 23 1014 580 3 568 14 04/005 0.13 138 13/06 17 1015 581 4 568 14 04/004 0.00 144 13/12 16 1015 580 3 567 14 02/004 0.00 150 13/18 27 1013 580 3 569 14 27/001 0.03 156 14/00 25 1010 580 3 571 16 08/004 0.09 162 14/06 18 1011 580 3 571 16 16/005 0.00 168 14/12 17 1011 579 2 570 15 19/004 0.00 174 14/18 27 1009 580 3 572 16 20/006 0.01 180 15/00 26 1007 580 3 574 18 16/006 0.02 Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 50.3 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC HOUR VALID T2MC PMSL HT500 HTANOM THCK TMP850 1000WD P06 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/18 23 1017 583 8 569 16 10/006 006 08/00 23 1015 583 7 570 16 10/004 0.19 012 08/06 20 1016 583 8 570 15 16/005 0.67 018 08/12 16 1017 581 6 567 14 35/008 1.44 024 08/18 19 1018 582 6 567 14 01/004 0.01 030 09/00 16 1017 580 4 566 13 35/008 0.08 036 09/06 15 1018 581 5 566 13 01/003 0.00 042 09/12 15 1017 580 4 565 13 00/005 0.00 048 09/18 19 1017 579 3 565 12 06/004 0.03 054 10/00 18 1014 577 1 565 12 20/001 0.08 060 10/06 16 1014 576 0 564 12 27/003 0.21 066 10/12 16 1012 573 -3 563 11 03/005 0.23 072 10/18 18 1013 574 -2 563 12 04/002 0.41 078 11/00 19 1011 573 -3 564 13 04/006 0.13 084 11/06 16 1012 574 -2 564 12 03/006 0.01 090 11/12 15 1013 574 -2 563 12 01/006 0.00 096 11/18 23 1014 578 1 566 13 03/005 0.06 102 12/00 23 1013 579 2 568 14 03/006 0.08 108 12/06 17 1015 580 3 568 14 02/005 0.00 114 12/12 17 1016 580 3 566 14 00/006 0.00 120 12/18 25 1016 582 5 568 13 04/006 0.03 126 13/00 25 1014 582 5 570 15 06/005 0.05 132 13/06 16 1015 583 6 570 15 04/003 0.00 138 13/12 15 1015 582 5 569 15 02/004 0.00 144 13/18 27 1015 582 5 570 15 16/003 0.00 150 14/00 26 1012 582 5 572 16 15/005 0.00 156 14/06 19 1013 582 5 571 16 18/007 0.00 162 14/12 17 1012 581 4 571 16 20/006 0.00 168 14/18 27 1012 582 4 572 15 19/011 0.00 174 15/00 25 1009 581 4 574 17 16/008 0.00 180 15/06 20 1010 581 4 573 18 17/010 0.00 Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 39.2 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 10/06 10/12 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 16 16 17 15 14 14 15 16 14 15 14 15 15 700 MB (C) 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 8 5 5 3 500 MB (C) -11 -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 -13 -13 1000-500 THCK 569 569 570 569 568 568 569 568 563 568 567 568 563 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH 12/77 14/89 12/76 13/87 9/69 7/65 13/87 8/59 12/89 11/81 12/86 700 MB DP/RH -1/58 1/69 1/69 0/68 1/75 -1/63 -1/65 1/63 0/70 -5/48 -7/50 500 MB DP/RH -16/71 -21/46 -14/85 -14/86 -15/79 -15/78 -16/72 -17/71 -22/43 -14/84 -15/89 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.02 0.23 0.35 0.14 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.06 0.03 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.19 0.05 0.27 0.42 0.07 0.16 0.22 0.07 0.25 0.11 0.01 0.00 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 24/014 18/008 18/015 19/023 23/015 22/013 19/011 18/018 22/017 22/013 18/012 18/022 21/011 700 MB 21/032 23/026 19/018 21/038 26/008 19/014 21/022 26/008 16/013 25/006 19/003 500 MB 20/041 23/037 21/025 21/032 22/029 21/030 23/028 23/023 23/024 22/026 22/031 21/029 18/028 250 MB 16/029 17/044 20/043 20/032 20/034 21/033 21/029 22/026 23/024 19/018 19/028 18/038 19/016 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -8 37 32 192 -17 19 114 44 47 -44 -27 700 MB -14 65 107 334 -46 32 30 -121 -6 16 -36 500 MB 72 53 186 281 -24 60 55 -36 -54 28 87 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 146 148 146 154 163 168 163 170 176 164 210 MSL PRES (MB) 1015 1017 1015 1017 1019 1017 1015 1016 1016 1013 1012 1014 1013 500 MB HGT (DM) 582 583 583 584 583 583 582 582 578 582 577 580 574 500 MB ABS VORT 9.3 6.5 7.1 10.2 7.6 5.7 4.1 10.1 12.0 24.9 19.2 Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 39.2 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 10/06 10/12 10/18 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 850 MB (C) 16 16 16 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 12 700 MB (C) 6 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 500 MB (C) -13 -12 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -11 -12 -13 1000-500 THCK 568 570 570 566 566 565 566 564 565 563 563 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 850 MB DP/RH 12/79 13/83 12/78 6/61 6/59 7/68 5/58 8/72 10/87 10/89 10/88 700 MB DP/RH 1/71 4/81 2/73 3/84 2/83 -3/59 0/71 -1/72 1/85 1/87 -2/69 500 MB DP/RH -19/61 -16/75 -15/72 -15/75 -14/79 -13/83 -18/58 -17/66 -14/77 -12/96 -21/51 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.13 0.25 0.22 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.13 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.15 0.33 0.36 0.03 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.19 0.23 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 18/005 19/008 20/023 32/009 20/004 31/011 08/001 19/003 13/008 14/007 17/011 700 MB 23/025 22/022 21/028 26/015 19/005 21/020 24/019 20/015 26/005 16/010 16/007 500 MB 23/033 21/024 24/020 23/023 23/018 22/033 28/024 17/003 18/016 19/022 15/013 250 MB 18/048 18/049 21/044 20/037 21/038 22/040 23/042 21/034 20/039 18/035 13/039 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -4 10 31 -34 -15 -55 10 -14 39 16 13 700 MB 26 13 12 26 44 -35 13 8 35 56 15 500 MB 41 8 -78 -17 56 -1 -32 -54 15 47 15 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 148 150 152 159 159 153 165 165 174 188 201 MSL PRES (MB) 1017 1015 1016 1017 1018 1017 1018 1017 1017 1014 1013 500 MB HGT (DM) 583 583 583 581 582 580 581 579 579 576 574 500 MB ABS VORT 9.6 11.6 9.5 9.1 1.1 17.6 2.5 -4.5 15.9 15.7 15.2 KOKC ETA MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/2007 1200 UTC DT /MAY 7/MAY 8 /MAY 9 /MAY 10 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 61 68 57 69 56 TMP 69 70 69 66 65 64 63 62 64 65 64 63 61 60 59 62 65 67 65 60 58 DPT 63 65 65 64 63 61 60 61 62 63 64 63 61 60 59 61 62 62 62 59 58 CLD OV BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 17 22 16 13 16 22 31 35 04 01 04 05 03 35 34 16 21 25 27 17 16 WSP 12 08 07 06 05 04 05 08 07 06 05 05 05 06 05 05 11 10 08 06 05 P06 31 57 74 67 48 44 53 42 30 22 28 P12 79 84 66 47 50 Q06 1 1 4 3 1 3 3 3 1 0 1 Q12 5 4 4 3 3 T06 23/17 41/27 74/ 8 35/14 28/15 57/28 47/ 6 34/12 15/14999/99 T12 47/27 82/14 57/28 62/12 999/99 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 6 6 6 7 6 2 2 3 4 6 6 5 6 6 3 6 5 5 6 7 7 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 4 5 5 6 7 6 7 5 2 2 6 7 7 7 7 5 OBV N N N N N BR BR BR N N N N BR FG FG N N N N N BR Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 3.9 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC HOUR VALID T2MF DP2M PMSL HT500 THCK TMP850 10M WD P03 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/12 69 68 1015 582 569 15 14/004 003 07/15 69 67 1017 582 567 14 11/007 0.44 006 07/18 71 66 1018 582 567 14 17/007 0.11 009 07/21 75 66 1018 582 567 13 18/009 0.03 012 08/00 73 67 1017 582 568 15 21/001 0.00 015 08/03 69 66 1018 583 567 15 10/003 0.00 018 08/06 67 65 1020 583 565 13 14/003 0.04 021 08/09 67 67 1019 582 565 13 09/002 0.18 024 08/12 67 67 1020 581 564 13 36/006 0.58 027 08/15 65 65 1021 581 563 12 03/008 0.76 030 08/18 66 64 1020 581 564 12 04/009 0.09 033 08/21 70 65 1018 580 565 13 08/005 0.01 036 09/00 72 66 1017 580 566 13 12/004 0.05 039 09/03 68 65 1017 581 566 14 00/004 0.06 042 09/06 62 62 1017 580 565 14 35/004 0.00 045 09/09 61 60 1017 580 565 14 33/005 0.03 048 09/12 61 60 1018 579 564 13 33/003 0.10 051 09/15 62 61 1019 579 562 12 31/005 0.13 054 09/18 68 64 1018 579 564 13 04/004 0.02 057 09/21 72 63 1016 578 565 12 16/009 0.02 060 10/00 72 65 1015 577 565 12 20/007 0.02 063 10/03 67 64 1016 578 564 12 21/003 0.06 066 10/06 65 63 1016 578 564 13 17/004 0.03 069 10/09 63 60 1016 577 563 12 17/006 0.00 072 10/12 61 59 1017 576 562 11 19/007 0.02 075 10/15 61 60 1018 577 562 11 23/004 0.13 078 10/18 71 62 1015 577 564 12 15/004 0.00 081 10/21 75 64 1014 577 564 12 17/006 0.00 084 11/00 71 62 1014 576 564 12 18/006 0.06 Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 3.9 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1800 UTC HOUR VALID T2MF DP2M PMSL HT500 THCK TMP850 10M WD P03 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 000 07/18 74 68 1018 583 567 15 13/012 003 07/21 76 68 1016 583 568 16 16/010 0.01 006 08/00 76 68 1016 583 569 16 15/006 0.01 009 08/03 71 66 1017 583 568 15 07/003 0.03 012 08/06 70 67 1019 582 566 14 15/003 0.09 015 08/09 69 66 1018 581 565 14 13/003 0.06 018 08/12 68 65 1019 580 564 13 04/004 0.01 021 08/15 72 67 1020 581 564 13 06/007 0.11 024 08/18 71 65 1019 581 564 13 05/009 0.11 027 08/21 70 65 1017 580 565 13 04/008 0.03 030 09/00 69 65 1016 580 566 14 06/008 0.06 033 09/03 66 64 1017 581 567 15 05/005 0.00 036 09/06 64 63 1016 580 566 16 02/004 0.01 039 09/09 63 63 1016 579 565 15 35/003 0.07 042 09/12 63 63 1016 578 564 14 34/005 0.24 045 09/15 64 63 1018 579 563 12 34/003 0.41 048 09/18 69 65 1017 578 563 12 17/005 0.04 051 09/21 72 65 1015 578 565 13 22/008 0.03 054 10/00 70 63 1014 577 564 14 21/003 0.00 057 10/03 66 60 1016 577 563 12 21/009 0.00 060 10/06 61 58 1016 576 562 12 20/006 0.02 063 10/09 58 56 1016 575 561 12 17/006 0.03 066 10/12 58 56 1015 575 562 11 15/002 0.00 069 10/15 61 59 1016 575 561 11 19/005 0.01 072 10/18 69 61 1015 576 563 11 15/006 0.00 075 10/21 71 63 1013 575 564 12 15/007 0.05 078 11/00 68 62 1013 575 564 12 15/006 0.11 081 11/03 63 61 1015 576 563 12 13/004 0.02 084 11/06 61 60 1016 576 563 12 10/004 0.00 Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 21.7 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 09/18 10/00 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 2 M (F) 850 MB (C) 15 14 15 13 13 12 13 14 13 13 13 700 MB (C) 6 5 6 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 500 MB (C) -10 -11 -12 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -12 -12 -12 1000-500 THCK 569 567 568 566 564 564 566 566 564 564 565 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 850 MB DP(C)/RH 14/92 10/80 9/66 11/89 11/92 9/80 11/88 12/87 11/92 7/68 10/81 700 MB DP(C)/RH 2/73 0/70 -2/58 2/94 1/88 -3/64 -1/73 0/74 1/89 0/83 0/83 500 MB DP(C)/RH -18/53 -14/79 -15/76 -14/80 -12/96 -13/81 -12/91 -14/83 -13/92 -13/93 -14/83 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.32 0.04 0.04 0.32 0.22 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.12 0.06 6HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.47 0.04 0.03 0.54 0.60 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.22 0.06 12HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.51 0.57 0.65 0.14 0.28 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 25/018 17/012 21/018 21/010 21/007 18/007 17/015 20/021 23/018 23/024 22/016 700 MB 22/020 21/013 21/023 22/023 21/019 20/036 23/034 25/024 21/019 21/027 21/028 500 MB 20/039 24/032 23/028 24/022 21/033 21/036 25/034 24/023 21/014 22/023 23/025 250 MB 19/030 18/050 20/055 20/051 22/045 21/036 20/036 20/043 23/047 21/035 20/039 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1014.7 1017.7 1016.7 1019.9 1019.5 1019.7 1017.1 1017.3 1017.8 1017.7 1014.7 850 MB HGT 152 155 154 156 155 155 154 154 154 154 152 700 MB HGT 314 316 316 317 316 315 315 315 314 314 312 500 MB HGT 582 582 582 583 581 581 580 580 579 579 578 250 MB HGT 1079 1078 1078 1078 1076 1076 1075 1074 1071 1073 1071 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB 24 -2 -3 15 23 -3 23 33 4 -18 29 700 MB 29 -5 -38 31 85 12 16 15 9 -7 35 500 MB 44 54 22 27 134 4 16 -1 50 18 7 CONVECTION PARAMS LIFT INX SFC LIFT INX 4LYR CAPE SFC 315 798 915 987 939 167 696 230 54 380 823 CAPE 4LYR CIN SFC -147 -1 -16 -4 -5 -31 -1 -45 -68 -43 -1 CIN 4LYR HELICITY (0-3 KM) OKC SC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 5/07/07 1200 UTC DAY /MAY 7 /MAY 8 /MAY 9 / HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MN/MX 60 74 58 75 TEMP 72 76 75 69 66 63 61 63 69 72 71 66 62 60 59 66 72 73 71 DEWPT 66 66 65 64 62 60 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 57 56 57 55 55 55 CLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK OV OV WDIR 17 23 03 02 01 36 36 36 02 32 01 10 03 14 16 19 21 18 15 WSPD 10 08 07 09 08 07 07 09 08 07 05 06 04 04 02 06 05 09 09 POP06 45 55 55 45 33 14 12 15 17 POP12 75 56 19 25 QPF 3/ 3/ 2/4 4/ 3/5 0/ 0/0 0/ 1/1 TSV06 78/28 71/11 54/ 6 36/ 0 48/ 2 33/ 0 20/ 0 22/ 0 46/13 TSV12 98/32 65/ 6 56/ 3 32/ 0 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R POZP 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 POSN 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 CIG 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 VIS 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 OBVIS N N N N N N F F F N N N F Station: OKC Lat: 35.38 Lon: -97.60 Elev: 390 Closest grid pt: 21.7 km. Initialization Time: 07-05-07 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 07/12 07/18 08/00 08/06 08/12 08/18 09/00 09/06 09/12 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 1000 MB (C) 22 27 30 29 20 23 27 27 25 850 MB (C) 15 15 18 17 15 13 14 15 14 700 MB (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 500 MB (C) -10 -11 -11 -12 -12 -11 -12 -13 -13 1000-500 THCK 5702 5712 5727 5712 5678 5673 5699 5694 5668 MOISTURE 1000 MB DP(C)/RH 20/84 20/64 19/49 18/53 19/93 19/79 16/52 15/47 14/52 850 MB DP(C)/RH 14/92 13/89 14/81 15/87 14/93 12/92 12/87 11/77 11/82 700 MB DP(C)/RH 2/72 1/68 3/81 4/95 4/98 1/84 3/83 2/84 3/92 500 MB DP(C)/RH -18/55 -20/49 -16/64 -13/91 -12/99 -12/94 -18/62 -17/73 -15/91 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 1.61 1.51 1.63 1.76 1.77 1.63 1.47 1.43 1.43 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.09 0.47 0.54 0.32 0.18 0.02 0.00 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.09 0.47 0.54 0.42 0.35 0.03 0.00 0.00 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 1000 MB 17/008 21/005 16/004 16/008 28/003 01/004 02/001 22/005 27/008 850 MB 24/018 19/010 18/009 18/010 22/007 16/004 20/007 22/010 24/007 700 MB 22/022 21/018 20/015 21/011 19/017 21/025 25/023 25/015 22/015 500 MB 20/040 22/029 23/029 22/018 21/025 23/033 25/026 23/019 23/025 250 MB 18/029 19/045 20/048 20/041 21/040 22/037 22/039 23/040 23/034 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1014.8 1015.4 1014.4 1016.5 1018.2 1019.8 1016.7 1017.8 1017.6 850 MB HGT 152 154 155 156 155 156 155 156 155 700 MB HGT 315 316 317 318 316 317 316 317 316 500 MB HGT 582 584 585 585 583 583 584 584 581 250 MB HGT 1079 1079 1081 1080 1077 1077 1076 1075 1071 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB 27 36 31 36 32 -4 15 9 700 MB 22 32 12 76 30 -2 2 8 500 MB 27 45 17 83 11 12 8 -1 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 133 138 137 145 146 157 158 158 164 500 MB ABS VOR () 8.6 9.8 6.7 10.8 12.9 10.6 5.3 7.2 8.5 1000 MB LI (K) 271 268 268 268 271 271 271 271 272 FXUS64 KOUN 071952 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 250 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007 .DISCUSSION... MESO SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN PARIS TEXAS AND DUNCAN OKLAHOMA WITH A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT EXITING THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED MCV NEAR PAULS VALLEY HAS A ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM ADA TO LAKE TEXOMA AND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. SO IT APPEARS THAT ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES STAND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH A POSSIBLE EXTENSION TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT WATCH RUNS THROUGH 6 PM...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT. OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HRS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED -TSRA NEAR ITS ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM CHEROKEE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR HOBART...CHILDRESS...TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK...WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER NEW MEXICO...CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE EXISTING FRONTAL LOCATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECT THE INCREASING LIFT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING OVER THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN TEXAS AT THIS TIME POSSIBLY MODULATING THE CONVECTION. WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND THE MODELS SHOWING THE GREATEST QPF OVER AN AREA WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF IN ISSUING A DIFFERENT FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. EXPECT CONVECTION ON MULTIPLE TIME AND SPACE SCALES TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS THEN CONTINUE A SLOW MIGRATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK CAP LIKELY PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT 72-84 HRS. 5-DAY QPF FROM THE HPC HAS A BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 8 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WITH AN AXIS OF LESSER AMOUNTS BUT STILL VERY HIGH AMOUNTS RUNNING ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 44. THESE AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXISTING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW NEAR ARIZONA IS FORECAST TO BECOME SURROUNDED BY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKELY DICTATING WHERE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE AMOUNTS TO AFFECT SOMEONE BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL ITS BEST TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME AND TAILOR THEM TO SHORT TERM WEATHER FEATURES AS THEY BECOME EVIDENT. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 78 64 79 / 50 60 50 50 HOBART OK 63 76 59 78 / 60 60 50 50 WICHITA FALLS TX 67 78 65 79 / 50 60 50 50 GAGE OK 56 74 55 77 / 30 50 40 40 PONCA CITY OK 64 77 62 79 / 40 50 50 50 DURANT OK 69 82 68 82 / 50 40 40 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ025>032-039>048- 050>052. TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ086-088>090. $$ JAMES OKZ029-080915- CLEVELAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORMAN...MOORE 328 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS AROUND 60. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 07/1958 OKC TT 066/078 064/079 061 20565 done