FXUS61 KALY 260245 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1045 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for clear and cold weather tonight. It will remain clear through the day on Friday, with temperatures a little closer to normal. Over the weekend, a warm front may allow for some showers, along with more cloud cover and temperatures rising above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... .Update...As of 10:40pm, northerly winds down the valley have stayed a bit more elevated than initially thought with ALB sustained around 10kts. This has kept temperatures milder with many still in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Once these winds weaken after Midnight, the effects of ideal radiational cooling should occur leading to a higher rate of cooling. Given this thinking, we adjusted temperatures through 06 UTC upwards a few degrees but still show many reaching into the 20s by 09 - 12 UTC. Previous discussion [7:20PM ET]...Previous forecast is in good shape and we only adjusted low temperatures for tonight downwards a degree or two (blended in NBM5th percentile guidance) given ideal radiational cooling tonight. Such low dew points in the teens combined with clear skies will give temperatures the opportunity to drop well into the 20s tonight (teens in the southern Adirondacks). Widespread frost/freeze expected tonight so any sensitive vegetation should be brought indoors. Previous discussion [339 PM EDT]...A large area of surface high pressure (around 1032 mb) remains over eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Our region continues to be under the influence of a cool northerly flow on the eastern side of the high pressure area. Visible satellite imagery shows completely clear skies over the area, with no cloud cover close to the area, so it should remain clear right through the evening hours. The dry air mass in place has been allowing for very low dewpoints, with values down into the teens. For tonight, the high pressure will continue to shift eastward and will be centered close to the area. This will continue to allow for clear skies and dry conditions for tonight. Winds will be light to calm overnight. With good radiational cooling expected, have leaned towards the colder side of the blended guidance for tonight, with lows in the 20s across the entire area. The growing season hasn't begun yet across our area, but a widespread frost/freeze is expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be centered over the area on Friday morning, allowing for a clear and chilly morning. This high pressure area will only slowly drift southeast through the day. Aside from a few spotty clouds late in the day for southwestern areas, it will be another fully sunny day across the region. Temps look a little warmer than Thursday thanks to slightly warmer temps aloft, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Have once again favored the lower side of the RH guidance, with dry dewpoints again in the teens and 20s. Friday night will be another cool night, although not quite as chilly as Thursday night, as a light southerly wind will be developing by later in the overnight. Skies will continue to be fairly clear, although some high clouds will be increasing from the west through the overnight. Have gone with lows in the 30s, although some sheltered spots (especially in southern VT) could still fall into the 20s. On Saturday into Saturday night, a warm front will be approaching from the west and will be lifting northward across the area. The upper level ridging will be trying to stay anchored in place along the eastern seaboard and the best forcing and moisture will generally be staying west of the area. Sky cover will be increasing through the day on Saturday and some light showers are possible by late in the day (mainly northwestern areas), as a band of showers heads into the area from the west. Much of this will be drying up as it heads into the area thanks to the dry air at low levels, but some light showers can't be ruled out. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few additional showers can't be ruled out on Saturday night, as some additional showers try to push up and around the ridge. Some models do show a cluster of showers moving across northern areas through the overnight, although it's still uncertain if this will be in our area or not. With the warm front coming through, it will cloudy and milder than recent nights, with temps in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much milder weather is expected through the long term period. Our region should be in the warm sector for Sunday into Monday. Have favored the warmer side of the blended guidance for these days, with valley highs into the 70s on both Sunday and Monday. Some southern areas could even be reaching into the low 80s by Monday as well. In addition, a southerly flow will be returning moisture to the region, so dewpoints will be noticeably higher than the past few days with values into the 50s. Most of Sunday and Monday look dry at this point, could a few pop up showers can't be ruled out, mainly during times of diurnal heating. A frontal boundary will be getting close to the area for the mid week. There's still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing, but some showers and possible thunderstorms may develop ahead and along this front between Monday night and Wednesday. Have gone with chance POPs most of the time, although we do have some likely POPs on late Tuesday for northwestern areas based on the latest NBM guidance. Still too early to say if any storms will be strong at this time, as it will depend on just how much instability is available and the exact timing of the boundary. Daytime temps still look mild for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 50s. It may be drier and slightly cooler by Thursday, but still very seasonable with daytime temps in the 60s and dewpoints back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00 UTC Friday...High pressure will bring clear skies and SKC conditions over the next 24 hours for all the terminals. Light winds near or under 5kts are expected through 06 UTC before becoming and remaining nearly calm. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speciale FXUS61 KALY 260456 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1256 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for clear and cold weather tonight. It will remain clear through the day on Friday, with temperatures a little closer to normal. Over the weekend, a warm front may allow for some showers, along with more cloud cover and temperatures rising above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...Main change with this update was to raise min temperatures around 3-5 degrees in the Capital District due to a persistent northerly breeze that has kept temperatures from cooling significantly, and may even last a few more hours. Otherwise no other changes with clear skies and cold conditions through early this morning. .PREV DISCUSSION[1045]...Northerly winds down the valley have stayed a bit more elevated than initially thought with ALB sustained around 10kts. This has kept temperatures milder with many still in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Once these winds weaken after Midnight, the effects of ideal radiational cooling should occur leading to a higher rate of cooling. Given this thinking, we adjusted temperatures through 06 UTC upwards a few degrees but still show many reaching into the 20s by 09 - 12 UTC. For tonight, the high pressure will continue to shift eastward and will be centered close to the area. This will continue to allow for clear skies and dry conditions for tonight. Winds will be light to calm overnight. With good radiational cooling expected, have leaned towards the colder side of the blended guidance for tonight, with lows in the 20s across the entire area. The growing season hasn't begun yet across our area, but a widespread frost/freeze is expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be centered over the area on Friday morning, allowing for a clear and chilly morning. This high pressure area will only slowly drift southeast through the day. Aside from a few spotty clouds late in the day for southwestern areas, it will be another fully sunny day across the region. Temps look a little warmer than Thursday thanks to slightly warmer temps aloft, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Have once again favored the lower side of the RH guidance, with dry dewpoints again in the teens and 20s. Friday night will be another cool night, although not quite as chilly as Thursday night, as a light southerly wind will be developing by later in the overnight. Skies will continue to be fairly clear, although some high clouds will be increasing from the west through the overnight. Have gone with lows in the 30s, although some sheltered spots (especially in southern VT) could still fall into the 20s. On Saturday into Saturday night, a warm front will be approaching from the west and will be lifting northward across the area. The upper level ridging will be trying to stay anchored in place along the eastern seaboard and the best forcing and moisture will generally be staying west of the area. Sky cover will be increasing through the day on Saturday and some light showers are possible by late in the day (mainly northwestern areas), as a band of showers heads into the area from the west. Much of this will be drying up as it heads into the area thanks to the dry air at low levels, but some light showers can't be ruled out. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few additional showers can't be ruled out on Saturday night, as some additional showers try to push up and around the ridge. Some models do show a cluster of showers moving across northern areas through the overnight, although it's still uncertain if this will be in our area or not. With the warm front coming through, it will cloudy and milder than recent nights, with temps in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much milder weather is expected through the long term period. Our region should be in the warm sector for Sunday into Monday. Have favored the warmer side of the blended guidance for these days, with valley highs into the 70s on both Sunday and Monday. Some southern areas could even be reaching into the low 80s by Monday as well. In addition, a southerly flow will be returning moisture to the region, so dewpoints will be noticeably higher than the past few days with values into the 50s. Most of Sunday and Monday look dry at this point, could a few pop up showers can't be ruled out, mainly during times of diurnal heating. A frontal boundary will be getting close to the area for the mid week. There's still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing, but some showers and possible thunderstorms may develop ahead and along this front between Monday night and Wednesday. Have gone with chance POPs most of the time, although we do have some likely POPs on late Tuesday for northwestern areas based on the latest NBM guidance. Still too early to say if any storms will be strong at this time, as it will depend on just how much instability is available and the exact timing of the boundary. Daytime temps still look mild for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 50s. It may be drier and slightly cooler by Thursday, but still very seasonable with daytime temps in the 60s and dewpoints back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00 UTC Friday...High pressure will bring clear skies and SKC conditions over the next 24 hours for all the terminals. Light winds near or under 5kts are expected through 06 UTC before becoming and remaining nearly calm. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV/Speciale SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speciale FXUS61 KALY 260526 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 126 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for clear and cold weather tonight. It will remain clear through the day on Friday, with temperatures a little closer to normal. Over the weekend, a warm front may allow for some showers, along with more cloud cover and temperatures rising above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...Main change with this update was to raise min temperatures around 3-5 degrees in the Capital District due to a persistent northerly breeze that has kept temperatures from cooling significantly, and may even last a few more hours. Otherwise no other changes with clear skies and cold conditions through early this morning. .PREV DISCUSSION[1045]...Northerly winds down the valley have stayed a bit more elevated than initially thought with ALB sustained around 10kts. This has kept temperatures milder with many still in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Once these winds weaken after Midnight, the effects of ideal radiational cooling should occur leading to a higher rate of cooling. Given this thinking, we adjusted temperatures through 06 UTC upwards a few degrees but still show many reaching into the 20s by 09 - 12 UTC. For tonight, the high pressure will continue to shift eastward and will be centered close to the area. This will continue to allow for clear skies and dry conditions for tonight. Winds will be light to calm overnight. With good radiational cooling expected, have leaned towards the colder side of the blended guidance for tonight, with lows in the 20s across the entire area. The growing season hasn't begun yet across our area, but a widespread frost/freeze is expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be centered over the area on Friday morning, allowing for a clear and chilly morning. This high pressure area will only slowly drift southeast through the day. Aside from a few spotty clouds late in the day for southwestern areas, it will be another fully sunny day across the region. Temps look a little warmer than Thursday thanks to slightly warmer temps aloft, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Have once again favored the lower side of the RH guidance, with dry dewpoints again in the teens and 20s. Friday night will be another cool night, although not quite as chilly as Thursday night, as a light southerly wind will be developing by later in the overnight. Skies will continue to be fairly clear, although some high clouds will be increasing from the west through the overnight. Have gone with lows in the 30s, although some sheltered spots (especially in southern VT) could still fall into the 20s. On Saturday into Saturday night, a warm front will be approaching from the west and will be lifting northward across the area. The upper level ridging will be trying to stay anchored in place along the eastern seaboard and the best forcing and moisture will generally be staying west of the area. Sky cover will be increasing through the day on Saturday and some light showers are possible by late in the day (mainly northwestern areas), as a band of showers heads into the area from the west. Much of this will be drying up as it heads into the area thanks to the dry air at low levels, but some light showers can't be ruled out. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few additional showers can't be ruled out on Saturday night, as some additional showers try to push up and around the ridge. Some models do show a cluster of showers moving across northern areas through the overnight, although it's still uncertain if this will be in our area or not. With the warm front coming through, it will cloudy and milder than recent nights, with temps in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much milder weather is expected through the long term period. Our region should be in the warm sector for Sunday into Monday. Have favored the warmer side of the blended guidance for these days, with valley highs into the 70s on both Sunday and Monday. Some southern areas could even be reaching into the low 80s by Monday as well. In addition, a southerly flow will be returning moisture to the region, so dewpoints will be noticeably higher than the past few days with values into the 50s. Most of Sunday and Monday look dry at this point, could a few pop up showers can't be ruled out, mainly during times of diurnal heating. A frontal boundary will be getting close to the area for the mid week. There's still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing, but some showers and possible thunderstorms may develop ahead and along this front between Monday night and Wednesday. Have gone with chance POPs most of the time, although we do have some likely POPs on late Tuesday for northwestern areas based on the latest NBM guidance. Still too early to say if any storms will be strong at this time, as it will depend on just how much instability is available and the exact timing of the boundary. Daytime temps still look mild for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 50s. It may be drier and slightly cooler by Thursday, but still very seasonable with daytime temps in the 60s and dewpoints back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...High pressure remains dominant across the region, making for clear skies. Terminals, therefore, continue to maintain VFR conditions. Such flight rules will remain status quo throughout the 06z TAF period with dry conditions and intermittent light breezes negating the risk of fog formation. Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will continue to be light and variable at sustained speeds ranging from about 3-6 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV/Speciale SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Gant FXUS61 KALY 260715 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the region this morning will gradually shift east off the New England coast through tonight, bringing continued dry and cool weather. A warm front approaching from the west will move across the area and may bring some showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM...After a cold start to the day with temperatures in the 20s and 30s, a large area of high pressure centered over our region this morning will gradually south/east into southern New England this afternoon. Subsidence associated with the high will continue to bring abundant sunshine. With a very dry air mass still in place (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) and strong April sun, temperatures will rebound into the 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable. With high pressure centered just south/east off the New England coast tonight, a slight southerly flow will develop tonight, with some warming aloft as well. So while temperatures will not be as cold as the previous few nights, it will still be chilly with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Skies should remain mostly clear, with just some high level cirrus clouds moving in towards early Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on Sat, while surface high pressure remains positioned south/east of New England. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through much of the day. A warm front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon, and perhaps a few light showers late in the day for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Forecast soundings indicate a significant wedge of dry air in the low levels, so most of any showers aloft should evaporate. High temperatures are expected warm to normal levels (lower/mid 60s in valleys) as the air mass continues to moderate with mostly sunny skies through the morning and at least partial sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will increase with gusts of 15-20 mph developing in the afternoon. The upper ridge axis will to shift east into New England Sat night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the region Sat night. Along with a possible weak disturbance moving through, this should result in scattered to numerous showers developing. Will also mention isolated thunder west of the Hudson Valley, as some there will be some elevated instability present above a developing low-level inversion. With the clouds and showers around, lows will be milder mainly in the 40s. Milder temperatures are expected on Sunday as the warm front lifts north of the region and upper level heights start to build again. However, some guidance has trended cooler as the upper ridge axis will be positioned to our west and a possible weak disturbance may spill over the ridge with extra cloud cover and a few showers possible. Will mention slightly cooler temperatures compared to the previous forecast, but still relatively mild with 60s to lower 70s for highs. Confidence in precip chances is low at this time, but much of the day could still end up dry. Upper ridging looks to become better established Sun night, with solid 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. As a strong surface high tracks east into northern Quebec, ridging extending southward may push a cold front into at least northern parts of our region. Will monitor trends for possible showers and cooler temperatures associated with this front, but will continue to forecast mainly dry conditions and mild temperatures for now with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much milder weather is expected through the long term period. Our region should be in the warm sector Monday. Have favored the warmer side of the blended guidance for these days, with valley highs into the 70s on Monday. Some southern areas could even be reaching into the low 80s by Monday as well. In addition, a southerly flow will be returning moisture to the region, so dewpoints will be noticeably higher than the past few days with values into the 50s. Most of Monday looks dry at this point, could a few pop up showers can't be ruled out, mainly during times of diurnal heating. A frontal boundary will be getting close to the area for the mid week. There's still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing, but some showers and possible thunderstorms may develop ahead and along this front between Monday night and Wednesday. Have gone with chance POPs most of the time, although we do have some likely POPs on late Tuesday for northwestern areas based on the latest NBM guidance. Still too early to say if any storms will be strong at this time, as it will depend on just how much instability is available and the exact timing of the boundary. Daytime temps still look mild for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 50s. It may be drier and slightly cooler by Thursday, but still very seasonable with daytime temps in the 60s and dewpoints back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...High pressure remains dominant across the region, making for clear skies. Terminals, therefore, continue to maintain VFR conditions. Such flight rules will remain status quo throughout the 06z TAF period with dry conditions and intermittent light breezes negating the risk of fog formation. Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will continue to be light and variable at sustained speeds ranging from about 3-6 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Gant FXUS61 KALY 260749 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 349 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the region this morning will gradually shift east off the New England coast through tonight, bringing continued dry and cool weather. A warm front approaching from the west will move across the area and may bring some showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM...After a cold start to the day with temperatures in the 20s and 30s, a large area of high pressure centered over our region this morning will gradually south/east into southern New England this afternoon. Subsidence associated with the high will continue to bring abundant sunshine. With a very dry air mass still in place (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) and strong April sun, temperatures will rebound into the 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable. With high pressure centered just south/east off the New England coast tonight, a slight southerly flow will develop tonight, with some warming aloft as well. So while temperatures will not be as cold as the previous few nights, it will still be chilly with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Skies should remain mostly clear, with just some high level cirrus clouds moving in towards early Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on Sat, while surface high pressure remains positioned south/east of New England. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through much of the day. A warm front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon, and perhaps a few light showers late in the day for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Forecast soundings indicate a significant wedge of dry air in the low levels, so most of any showers aloft should evaporate. High temperatures are expected warm to normal levels (lower/mid 60s in valleys) as the air mass continues to moderate with mostly sunny skies through the morning and at least partial sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will increase with gusts of 15-20 mph developing in the afternoon. The upper ridge axis will to shift east into New England Sat night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the region Sat night. Along with a possible weak disturbance moving through, this should result in scattered to numerous showers developing. Will also mention isolated thunder west of the Hudson Valley, as some there will be some elevated instability present above a developing low-level inversion. With the clouds and showers around, lows will be milder mainly in the 40s. Milder temperatures are expected on Sunday as the warm front lifts north of the region and upper level heights start to build again. However, some guidance has trended cooler as the upper ridge axis will be positioned to our west and a possible weak disturbance may spill over the ridge with extra cloud cover and a few showers possible. Will mention slightly cooler temperatures compared to the previous forecast, but still relatively mild with 60s to lower 70s for highs. Confidence in precip chances is low at this time, but much of the day could still end up dry. Upper ridging looks to become better established Sun night, with solid 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. As a strong surface high tracks east into northern Quebec, ridging extending southward may push a cold front into at least northern parts of our region. Will monitor trends for possible showers and cooler temperatures associated with this front, but will continue to forecast mainly dry conditions and mild temperatures for now with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Periods of showers and potentially some thunderstorms riddle the extended forecast period as multiple disturbances impact the region.... The extended forecast period opens with primarily dry conditions Monday outside of a few isolated to scattered, diurnally-driven showers along a back door cold front passing through the region as its parent low pressure system moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Aloft, the axis of a mid- to upper-level ridge builds across the region, allowing a mild airmass to remain in place. However, with northwesterly flow at the apex of the ridge cutting off the advection of warmer air to our south and west and weak cold air advection from the cool fropa, high temperatures Monday will likely not reach their previously anticipated summer-like magnitude. That's not to say that Monday's highs will not be on the warm side for late April, however, as the forecast of upper 60s to upper 70s remains within 2-3 STDVs above normal according to the latest NAEFS. Though spatial spread remains a bit uncertain, latest guidance indicates that showers will then begin to overspread the region from west to east late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning as a warm front approaches the region. As the warm front makes progress through the region through Tuesday morning, eastern New York and western New England will become wedged into the warm sector ahead of an impending cold front. Showers will continue throughout the day Tuesday with some embedded thunderstorms possible as medium to long term guidance indicates modest instability across portions of the region. It is too early to determine the strength of any developing convection, but any thunderstorms that develop will likely dissipate come Tuesday night with the loss of diurnal heating decreasing instability. And while timing discrepancies exist surrounding the dissipation of showers, medium to long range guidance indicates lingering precipitation into at least Wednesday morning. Tuesday's highs will be slightly cooler than Monday's with temperatures looking to range from the mid 60s to low 70s. A brief break in shower activity comes Wednesday as a surface high ridges in from the southwest. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with pockets of low 60s in high terrain areas. Shower chances increase once again towards the end of the week with yet another frontal system looking to impact the region. However, uncertainty surrounding the evolution of this system subsequently gives low confidence in the impacts for our forecast area. For now, mentioned scattered to chance PoPs throughout the region through the end of the week. High temperatures during this time will cool off a bit in comparison to the beginning of the period with highs expected to be in the low to upper 60s Thursday with pockets of 50s above 1500 ft and 50s and 60s likely on Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...High pressure remains dominant across the region, making for clear skies. Terminals, therefore, continue to maintain VFR conditions. Such flight rules will remain status quo throughout the 06z TAF period with dry conditions and intermittent light breezes negating the risk of fog formation. Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will continue to be light and variable at sustained speeds ranging from about 3-6 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Gant