Contingency Analysis of 850 hPa temperatures

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Frame Controls:	Temperature Contingency Maps For a description of the algorithm used to diagnose the modes applied as predictors, see Roundy, P.E., and C.J. Schreck, 2009: A combined wave-number-frequency and time-extended EOF approach for tracking the progress of modes of large-scale organized tropical convection. Q.J. Roy. Met. Soc. 135:161-173. Plotted values represent probabilities weighted by climatology of an event (anomalous warm or anomalous cold temperatures in excess of 1.5 standard deviations) given the tropical background convective state (including 100-day lowpass patterns and the sum of the MJO and equatorial Rossby wave projections). The dates of all similar lowpass patterns are first identified, then from among those events, the 10 MJO events most similar to the present state are identified. Dates are retained 2 days before to 2 days after each selected MJO optimum date, then counts are made based on 850 hPa temperatures. Roundy et al. (2010, J. Climate) provides motivation for considering the MJO and ENSO in concert. Solid black lines enclose regions in which the probabilities for warm conditions are significantly different from the probabilities of cold conditions at the 95% level.
Loop Mode: ADVANCE BACK and FORTH Animate Frames: REVIEW STOP FWD Dwell First: dec start dwell inc start dwell Dwell Last: decrease end dwell increase end dwell Adjust Speed: Slower Faster Advance One: Backward Forward Frame No:

Frame Controls:

Temperature Contingency Maps

For a description of the algorithm used to diagnose the modes applied as predictors, see
Roundy, P.E., and C.J. Schreck, 2009: A combined wave-number-frequency
and time-extended EOF approach for tracking the progress of modes
of large-scale organized tropical convection. Q.J. Roy. Met. Soc. 135:161-173.

Plotted values represent probabilities weighted by climatology of an event
(anomalous warm or anomalous cold temperatures in excess of 1.5 standard deviations) given the tropical background
convective state (including 100-day lowpass patterns and the sum of the MJO and equatorial Rossby wave projections).
The dates of all similar lowpass patterns are first identified, then from among
those events, the 10 MJO events most similar to the present state
are identified. Dates are retained 2 days before to 2 days after each
selected MJO optimum date, then counts are made based on 850 hPa temperatures.
Roundy et al. (2010, J. Climate) provides motivation for considering the MJO and ENSO in concert.
Solid black lines enclose regions in which
the probabilities for warm conditions are significantly different from
the probabilities of cold conditions at the 95% level.

Loop Mode:

Animate Frames:

Dwell First:

Dwell Last:

Adjust Speed:

Advance One:

The algorithm for extracting the OLR anomaly signals is described here.