Current Cycle Cycle - 6 h Cycle - 12 h Cycle - 18 h Cycle - 24 h Cycle - 30 h Cycle - 36 h Cycle - 42 h Cycle - 48 h Loop Sea Level Pressure
Analysis Ensemble mean (contours, hPa) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) sea level pressure.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Deep-Layer Mean Wind
Analysis ensemble mean (wind barbs, knots) and ensemble standard deviation (shading, m/s) deep layer mean winds (200-850 hPa).2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Precipitable Water
Analysis ensemble mean (contours, mm) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) precipitable water valid at analysis time.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Midtropospheric Relative Humidity
Analysis ensemble mean (contours, %) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) 400-700 hPa relative humidity2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Thickness
Analysis ensemble mean (contours, m) and ensemble standard deviation 200-850 hPa thickness.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Vertical Shear
Analysis ensemble mean (contours, m/s) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) vector magnitude vertical wind shear (200-850 hPa).2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Precipitation
Analysis ensemble mean SLP (contours, units hPa) and six hour precipitation (shading, units mm) valid at analysis time.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Observations
Distribution of observations ingested into the assimilation system.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop
Current Cycle Cycle - 6 h Cycle - 12 h Cycle - 18 h Cycle - 24 h Cycle - 30 h Cycle - 36 h Cycle - 42 h Cycle - 48 h Loop Analysis TC Vitals
Analysis vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Background TC Vitals
Background vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, NE
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the northeast quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, SE
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the southeast quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, SW
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the southwest quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, NW
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the northwest quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop 10 m Wind Increment
Analysis ensemble-mean 10 m winds (barbs, knots) and analysis increment (shading, m/s).2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop RMS Surface Pressure Tendency
RMS surface pressure tendency over the entire nested domain as a function of time.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Observations
Distribution of observations ingested into the assimilation system.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop
Current Cycle Cycle - 6 h Cycle - 12 h Cycle - 18 h Cycle - 24 h Cycle - 30 h Cycle - 36 h Cycle - 42 h Cycle - 48 h Loop Analysis TC Vitals
Analysis vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Background TC Vitals
Background vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, NE
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the northeast quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, SE
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the southeast quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, SW
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the southwest quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, NW
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the northwest quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop 10 m Wind Increment
Analysis ensemble-mean 10 m winds (barbs, knots) and analysis increment (shading, m/s).2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop RMS Surface Pressure Tendency
RMS surface pressure tendency over the entire nested domain as a function of time.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Observations
Distribution of observations ingested into the assimilation system.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop
Current Cycle Cycle - 6 h Cycle - 12 h Cycle - 18 h Cycle - 24 h Cycle - 30 h Cycle - 36 h Cycle - 42 h Cycle - 48 h Loop Analysis TC Vitals
Analysis vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Background TC Vitals
Background vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, NE
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the northeast quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, SE
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the southeast quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, SW
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the southwest quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Analysis 34-knot radii, NW
Analysis 34-knot wind radii in the northwest quadrant of the TC.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop 10 m Wind Increment
Analysis ensemble-mean 10 m winds (barbs, knots) and analysis increment (shading, m/s).2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop RMS Surface Pressure Tendency
RMS surface pressure tendency over the entire nested domain as a function of time.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop Observations
Distribution of observations ingested into the assimilation system.2010090206 2010090200 2010090118 2010090112 2010090106 2010090100 2010083118 2010083112 2010083106 Loop
Tropics ( < 30N ) Midlatitude( > 30N ) Full Domain Rawinsonde U Wind
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against rawinsonde zonal wind observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Rawinsonde V Wind
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against rawinsonde meridional wind observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Rawinsonde Temperature
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against rawinsonde temperature observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Rawinsonde Specific Humidity
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against rawinsonde humidity observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Dropsonde U Wind
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against dropsonde zonal wind observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Dropsonde V Wind
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against dropsonde meridional wind observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Dropsonde Temperature
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against dropsonde temperature observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Dropsonde Specific Humidity
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against dropsonde humidity observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Satellite U Wind
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against satellite zonal wind observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs Satellite V Wind
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against satellite meridional wind observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs GPS Refractivity
Analysis (black) and background (red) errors against GPS occultation observations over past 14 days.obs obs obs
- Tropical Cyclone Vitals RMS Error - RMS error in the analysis (red) and 6 hour forecast (blue) TC track, minimum SLP and maximum wind speed over all TD and greater since 1 August (Colin, Five). The orange (purple) bars are the ensemble standard deviation.
- Tropical Cyclone Vitals Bias - Bias (forecast-observation) in the analysis (red) and 6 hour forecast (blue) TC minimum SLP and maximum wind speed over all TD and greater since 1 August (Colin, Five).
- 96 member WRF-ARW ensemble, 36 km horizontal resolution, 36 vertical levels up to 20 hPa, WSM 5 class microphysics.
- All INVEST and TC have a 12 km fixed-move nest.
- Analyses generated each six hours by assimilating surface pressure, rawinsonde data, dropsonde data, aircraft data, ACARS, cloud winds, TC position and minimum SLP data.
- This work is supported by the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project and NSF Grant ATM-0850642.
- Calculations are carried out on NCAR's Bluefire, using a CISL University High Performance Computing Grant.
