2010091412 PREDICT Forecasts

Ryan D. Torn, David Cook, Steven Cavallo

CURRENT FORECAST PRIOR 0000 UTC FORECAST PRIOR 1200 UTC FORECAST ANALYSIS SYSTEM

EXPERIMENT HAS CONCLUDED



Forecast Mean/Spread Fields

  F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Deep-Layer Mean Wind
Ensemble mean (wind barbs, knots) and ensemble standard deviation (shading, m/s) deep layer mean winds (200-850 hPa)		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Circulation
Ensemble mean (contours, * 10^5 1/s) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) circulation in the 600-800 hPa wind for a circle of radius 200 km centered on each grid point		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Thickness
Ensemble mean (contours, m) and ensemble standard deviation 200-850 hPa thickness		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitable Water
Ensemble mean (contours, mm) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) precipitable water.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric Relative Humidity
Ensemble mean (contours, m/s) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) 400-700 hPa relative humidity.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Vertical Shear
Ensemble mean (contours, m/s) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) vector magnitude vertical wind shear (200-850 hPa).		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Obuku-Weiss Parameter
Ensemble mean (contours, 1/s2 * 10^9) and ensemble standard deviation (shading) OW parameter computed from 600-800 hPa layer average wind.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop


Forecast Probability Fields

  F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Circulation
Ensemble mean (contours, * 10^5 1/s) circulation in the 600-800 hPa wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on each grid point and probability it exceeds 3 * 10^-5 1/s (shading, %).		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitable Water
Ensemble mean (contours, mm) precipitable water and probability it exceeds 50 mm (shading, %).		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric Relative Humidity
Ensemble mean (contours, %) 400-700 hPa relative humidity and probability it exceeds 70% (shading).		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Vertical Shear
Ensemble mean (contours, m/s) vector magnitude 200-850 hPa wind shear and the probability it exceeds 10 m/s (shading, %).		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Obuku-Weiss Parameter
Ensemble mean (contours, 1/s2 * 10^9) OW parameter computed from the 600-800 hPa layer average wind and probability it exceeds 2 * 10^-9 1/s^2 (shading, %).		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop


Other Forecast Products

  F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
St. Croix Wind Speed
St. Croix wind speed histogram.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
St. Croix Wind Direction
St. Croix wind direction histogram.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop


IGOR   Track   Metrics   F000 Sensitivity   F024 Sensitivity   F048 Sensitivity  

  F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
TC Vitals
Vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitable Water
Precipitable water averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Lower-tropospheric RH
Relative humidity below 700 hPa averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric RH
400-700 hPa relative humidity averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Vertical Shear
200-850 hPa vertical wind shear averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Obuku-Weiss Parameter
Obuku-Weiss Parameter derived from the 600-800 layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
200 hPa Divergence
Divergence at 200 hPa averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop


INVEST92   Track   Metrics   F000 Sensitivity   F024 Sensitivity   F048 Sensitivity  

  F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
TC Vitals
Vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitable Water
Precipitable water averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Lower-tropospheric RH
Relative humidity below 700 hPa averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric RH
400-700 hPa relative humidity averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Vertical Shear
200-850 hPa vertical wind shear averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Obuku-Weiss Parameter
Obuku-Weiss Parameter derived from the 600-800 layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
200 hPa Divergence
Divergence at 200 hPa averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop


JULIA   Track   Metrics   F000 Sensitivity   F024 Sensitivity   F048 Sensitivity  

  F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
TC Vitals
Vortex position, minimum SLP, and maximum wind speed		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitable Water
Precipitable water averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Lower-tropospheric RH
Relative humidity below 700 hPa averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Midtropospheric RH
400-700 hPa relative humidity averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Vertical Shear
200-850 hPa vertical wind shear averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Obuku-Weiss Parameter
Obuku-Weiss Parameter derived from the 600-800 layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
200 hPa Divergence
Divergence at 200 hPa averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system		 F000 F006 F012 F018 F024 F030 F036 F042 F048 F060 F072 Loop


Notes: