2010091412 IGOR PREDICT Forecast Sensitivities Ryan D. Torn, David Cook, Steven Cavallo

Description

These figures show the sensitivity of various forecast metrics related to TC genesis (names along the left column of each table) to the 000 hour forecast fields in each header (shading, units of the metric). All shaded grid points are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The contours in each figure are the ensemble mean field.

Deep Layer U Wind

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Major Position Axis Distance along the major axis of variability in TC track	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

Deep Layer V Wind

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Major Position Axis Distance along the major axis of variability in TC track	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

600-800 hPa U Wind

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Thickness 200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Kinetic Energy 900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Precipitation Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

600-800 hPa V Wind

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Thickness 200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Kinetic Energy 900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Precipitation Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

400-700 hPa Relative Humidity

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Thickness 200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Kinetic Energy 900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric RH 400-700 hPa relative humidity averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Precipitation Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

2-6 km Equivalent Potential Temperature

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Thickness 200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Kinetic Energy 900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Precipitation Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

400-700 hPa GPS Refractivity

	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Midtropospheric Circulation Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Thickness 200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Kinetic Energy 900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072
Precipitation Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system	F000	F012	F024	F036	F048	F060	F072

Notes:

• This work is supported by NSF Grant ATM-0850642