2010093012 PGI49L PREDICT Forecast Sensitivities

Ryan D. Torn, David Cook, Steven Cavallo



Description

These figures show the sensitivity of various forecast metrics related to TC genesis (names along the left column of each table) to the 000 hour forecast fields in each header (shading, units of the metric). All shaded grid points are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The contours in each figure are the ensemble mean field.

Deep Layer U Wind

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Major Position Axis
Distance along the major axis of variability in TC track
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


Deep Layer V Wind

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Major Position Axis
Distance along the major axis of variability in TC track
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


600-800 hPa U Wind

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Kinetic Energy
900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


600-800 hPa V Wind

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Kinetic Energy
900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


400-700 hPa Relative Humidity

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Kinetic Energy
900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric RH
400-700 hPa relative humidity averaged over a 300 km radius circle centered on the system.
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


2-6 km Equivalent Potential Temperature

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Kinetic Energy
900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


400-700 hPa GPS Refractivity

  F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Midtropospheric Circulation
Circulation in the 600-800 hPa layer-average wind for a circle of radius 300 km centered on system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Thickness
200-850 hPa thickness averaged over a 250 km radius circle centered on the system.
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Kinetic Energy
900 hPa kinetic energy averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072
Precipitation
Precipitation over the previous 6 h averaged over a circle of radius 300 km centered on the system
F000 F012 F024 F036 F048 F060 F072


Notes: