779 FXUS61 KALY 210644 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 244 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased cloud coverage and added some slight chance PoPs through this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frontal system and multiple waves of low pressure tracking along the front will bring some snow/wintry mix to areas mainly north of I-90 late tonight into Sunday morning, then again Sunday night into Monday morning for areas mainly south of I-90. 2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures for most of next week, along with mainly dry weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low clouds and spotty drizzle and/or snow showers may linger through this morning before gradual afternoon clearing settles in. However, next low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes region tonight. Ahead of this system, a warm front will bring a period of precipitation for areas mainly north of I-90. Temps should be cold enough for wet snow to occur, however there remains considerable uncertainty regarding overall snowfall amounts, as some hi-res guidance and GFS suggest higher QPF and overall snowfall across the southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and higher terrain of southern VT. 01Z/NBM 24-hour probs for >2 inches of snowfall ending 2 PM Sunday are generally 20-40% across these areas, with similar probs for >4" at 10-20%. Current forecast indicates 1-3 inches of snowfall across these areas tonight through Sunday morning, with localized amounts of up to 4" for some higher terrain areas. There remains low confidence overall as the track of the incoming low and associated warm front will be critical, as areas immediately north and east of these features will have the best chance for accumulating snowfall. A track difference of 20-40 miles will have significant implications for the snowfall amounts. Main impacts where snow occurs would be hazardous travel conditions for late tonight into Sunday morning. Warm front should remain positioned across northern New England before settling back southward late Sunday into Sunday night. At the same time, another wave of low pressure is expected to develop closer to I-90 in PA and track eastward later Sunday night into Monday morning. Very tight temperature gradient will exist across the region Sunday, with colder air slowly advancing southward Sunday night. Depending on where the southern edge of this colder air reaches, and how far north the precipitation from the low pressure system expands to will determine if additional snow and/or a band of sleet/freezing rain develops. This potential, albeit small, is greatest near and south of I-90. 01Z/NBM 24-hour probs for >2" snowfall ending 8 PM Monday for these areas is 10-20%, greatest across higher terrain of the eastern Catskills and Berkshires. Will have to watch trends, as a burst of snow/wintry mix could lead to additional slippery travel conditions for some of these areas for the Mon AM commute. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the Monday system, temperatures are expected to be generally near or slightly below normal, with highs mainly in the 30s/40s and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. A clipper type system could bring some passing rain/snow showers Wednesday, otherwise mainly dry conditions are expected until next Thursday or Friday when another system approaching from the Great Lakes region could bring more widespread precipitation, favoring rain in valley areas and rain/snow across higher elevations. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR flying conditions have developed over GFL, PSF, and POU for both vis and cig in the wake of showers that fell this evening. MVFR conditions have developed at ALB. These flying conditions will persist through early morning with even patchy drizzle developing before the main trough axis swings through the terminals, resulting in increased wind speeds that will likely help mix out fog. However, MVFR ceilings likely continue through 15-18 UTC at all terminals before enough mixing develops to scour out the lower ceilings at ALB, POU and GFL allowing VFR conditions to return. MVFR cigs look to linger at PSF through the afternoon due to continued westerly/upslope flow. Otherwise, northwesterly winds strengthen by 11 - 14 UTC at all terminals becoming sustained 8-12kts and gusts up to 15-20kts before winds becoming northerly this afternoon. VFR conditons should return this afternoon into this evening before our next warm front lifts into the region. Show a prob30 group for snow showers and MVFR arriving at GFL, ALB and PSF towards the end of the TAF period. There remains uncertainty with how far south snow showers reach with the highest confidence for snow showers at GFL and less certainty and ALB and PSF. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...31