302 FXUS61 KALY 051742 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1242 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisories were expanded to include eastern Greene, western Columbia and eastern Dutchess Counties for some sleet and freezing rain tonight into Friday morning. Temps continue to trend colder for this event with more sleet and freezing rain for eastern NY and western New England. Cooler temps, but still above normal this weekend with some snow melt but any isolated hydro issues likely not until the early to mid week warm up. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain changing to a wintry mix will result in more widespread slippery travel conditions tonight into Friday, including for the Friday AM commute. 2) High confidence in above normals temps late in the weekend into the middle of next week. Combined with continued chances for rainfall especially early in the weekend, this will result in some snowmelt and increased runoff. The potential for ice jams and flooding looks to increase after the weekend with perhaps isolated issues especially next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure continues to shift offshore with mid and high clouds increasing from the south and west. Some patchy fog formed in some of the valley areas this morning. The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal, as a strong sfc anticylone around 1040 hPa build southward from south-central Quebec today. A backdoor cold front builds southward. Initially, light rain break outs with a short-wave and the warm front the south over the mid Atlantic States and Ohio Valley. Low pressure will be moving across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley today into tonight. A few pockets of freezing rain may break out south and west of Albany in the late morning into the afternoon. The low-level isentropic lift increases south and west of the Capital Region in the late morning into the afternoon, and gradually spreads northward. Cold air damming set-up with the high to the north funneling shallow cold air across the region from north to south tonight with the boundary layer north/northeast winds will cause a wintry mix to set up. Lots of disagreement with the CAMs and the short-range guidance on exactly what wintry mix p-types occur with the 3-km HRRR favoring more rain transitioning to snow and sleet, whereas the 3-km NAM favors more freezing rain and some sleet from I-90 south. Also, the QPF is heavier on the NAM compared to the GFS/EC/NBM. We stayed close to the NBM and went with slightly colder profiles, since the low-level ageostrophic signature is strong with favorable upper-level dynamics aloft. The forecast continues to favor colder trends and we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include the southern Taconics of eastern Dutchess County, and also the upper mid Hudson Valley of eastern Greene and western Columbia Counties for some ice accretion. We may need to include the mid Hudson Valley later. The cold air drains southward quickly in the forecast area overnight. Widespread coatings to a tenth of an inch of flat ice are expected with one tenth to quarter inch over the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and the Helderbergs some locally higher amounts of a third of an inch possible. The northern zones including southern VT may receive a few inches of snow and sleet. Even the Capital Region could receive a half an inch or sleet and snow based on the HRRR model soundings. Slick roads will be an issue tonight through the Fri morning commute. The main concern with the forecasted ice amounts is for slippery travel conditions, as these amounts generally don't look high enough to result in significant power outages. All the advisories run until noon Friday. The pcpn should quickly diminish in the mid to late morning, as the wave moves east and the front sags southward. A half an inch to an inch of QPF is likely with the highest amounts south of I-90...perhaps less than an a half inch in the northern-most zones. Lows this morning fall into the teens and 20s. Highs today were favored close the MAVMOS/NBM blend with 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight fall into the 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The anticipated warm up this weekend looks less prominent than previously forecasted. However, temps will still run above normal by 5-10 degrees. This will allow some snow melt, but the impacts look less. Mid-level ridging occurs near the East Coast Fri-Sat. A mid-level short-wave and a warm front moves through Fri night into Sat morning. Some light showers or patchy freezing rain may occur over the northern zones. High temps on Sat rise into the 40s to lower 50s with mostly cloudy conditions. The ridging along the East Coast breaks down Sat night into Sunday, as a cold front moves through. Some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder over the Adirondacks is possible with the frontal passage. Temps fall back into the 30s to lower to mid 40s south and east of the Capital Region. Sunday, looks cooler and breezy. Max temps will be in the 40s to lower 50s with some 30s over the Adirondack Park. Some snow melt will occur, however widespread ice break up is not expected. The potential for hydro issues appears lower than previously expected. For most rivers, the NERFC is not expecting enough of a rise to result in significant ice break up. However, will continue to mention that isolated issues can't be ruled out, mainly south of the Capital District where milder temps are expected. Mid and upper level ridging builds back in over the East Coast including the Northeast Mon-Tue. H500 heights anomalies will be 1-2 STDEVs above normal with H850 temps also running a few STDEVs above normal. South/southwest flow increases across the region with highs in the 50s to mid 60s forecasted for Tue. Extensive snow melt and some ice break up is likely across parts of the region. Some of the latest HEFS guidance show low chances for minor flooding on some of the gauges. The next chance of rain does not look likely until Wed when the cold front gets closer. Temps will continue to run 15-20+ degrees above normal on Wed based on the NBM/ensembles and medium range deterministic guidance. We will continue to monitor for 3-foot or more rises which are needed to break up a foot of ice based on the guidance. Will continue to closely monitor the hydro forecasts over the coming days for next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12z Friday...Rain will continue to affect the KALB/KPOU/KPSF sites this afternoon. As the precip expands northward by this evening, colder air in the low levels will gradually filter southward. So KGFL is expected to see a mix of RA/IP, changing to PL/SN and eventually SN overnight. KALB/KPSF will see a transition from RA to FZRA/PL this evening into the overnight hours. At this time KPOU is expected to remain warm enough for RA. The precip is expected to end from NW to SE between 10z-11z. Flying conditions will deteriorate to MVFR then IFR into this evening. Solid IFR conditions expected overnight into early Friday morning even after the precip ends due to abundant low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion. However, vsby should improve by late Friday morning. Winds through the period will be north-northeast around 3-8 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-082>084. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for NYZ059-060-066. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...07