325 FXUS61 KALY 041838 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 238 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A low pressure system will bring scattered rain showers into this evening then a period of rain and a possible thunderstorm late tonight through Sunday morning or early afternoon. 2) Cooler weather returns early next week with a clipper system bringing rain and snow showers, mainly Monday night into Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations could occur, especially across higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Satellite imagery showing clouds increasing, with widely scattered showers developing with a surge of isentropic lift ahead of a northward advancing warm front. Latest CAMs mainly focusing on areas west of the Hudson Valley, which is where PoPs are highest(30-40%). An isolated/brief shower cannot be ruled out elsewhere though. Patchy freezing drizzle may occur in the highest elevations > 1500 ft in the S. Greens tonight with low level moisture trapped beneath a significant inversion with surface temperatures below freezing. Coverage should be too limited to cause widespread impacts. Southerly winds will increase tonight as low pressure tracks in SE Canada while high pressure remains in place over the Canadian Maritimes. Gusts of 25-35 mph will occur in typical southerly facing slopes of the higher terrain and S-N oriented valleys. A ~3-5 period of rain will then occur along the system's cold front late tonight into Sunday, spreading from NW to SE across the area. It appears our region will not get into a true warm sector, so there is only a slight chance of a few T-storms with only limited elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100 J/Kg) well north/west of Albany tonight and well south/east late Sun morning. The rain will move into the Capital District early to mid morning, then exiting by afternoon. Areas south/east of Albany will still see rain into early Sun afternoon before ending. QPF is in the 0.25-0.60" range, which should not result in any additional hydro impacts. Levels along the West Canada Creek at Hinckley may continue to fluctuate near minor flood stage for the next few days. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold advection commences late Sun into Sun night, as an upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes and Northeast. While some upslope snow showers may occur into the W. Adirondacks Sun night into Mon, most of the area should be dry. A more vigorous disturbance passing through the mean trough looks to bring scattered to numerous snow showers Late Mon into Tue. Due to diurnal effects, snow showers expected to mix with rain in lower elevations during daylight hours on Tue, although there could be a dusting of accumulation on mainly grassy surfaces prior to sunrise. Higher elevations may see a coating to inch of snow, which could result in some isolated slippery travel. Temperatures will be below normal through Wed, with the coldest stretch Mon-Tue night. 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to be -1 to -3 STDEV beneath the persistent upper level trough. A gusty NW breeze will make it feel colder too. Highs expected to range from the mid 30s to lower 50s Mon and lower 30s to mid 40s Tue. Lows should range from the mid 20s to mid 30s Mon night and around 20F to lower 30s Tue night. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this afternoon as a high pressure overhead struggles to hang on ahead of another warm front quickly approaching. Mid and low level clouds are already beginning to move in from the southwest and will bring all terminals down to MVFR cigs after after sunset tonight. KPOU hangs onto VFR a little longer until around 03z. With the warming aloft and building moisture ahead of the front there is a chance of a few scattered showers throughout the region tonight that could cross terminal boundaries. HiRes guidance and model soundings suggest periods of showers in the 23z to 2z timeframe for KGFL and KALB shown in a TEMPO. The timing of the scattered showers at KPOU and KPSF looks to be later in the 4z to 9z time frame shown in the PROB30. Brief improvement in cigs is possible across all of the terminals just before sunrise and the next band of showers crosses the region due to a surface low passing to our north. This will be more widespread and could be moderate at times therefore IFR cigs and lowered vis are expected at times. MVFR conditions at KGFL and KALB trend towards IFR cigs around 13z until the band of showers passes returning MVFR towards the end of the TAF period. MVFR conditions at KPOU and KPSF become IFR around 15/16z and and remain through the TAF period. Winds range from northeasterly to easterly this afternoon under 10 knots. Winds shift southeasterly this evening with speeds ranging from 10 to 15 knots and gusts possibly reaching 30 knots overnight. After sunrise winds veer southwesterly 5 to 10 knots. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...53