944 FXUS61 KALY 261843 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 243 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rainfall are expected this afternoon through tonight, though no hydrological impacts are expected. 2) Additional periods of rainfall are expected next week though confidence is low whether or not any hydrologic impacts will occur. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low pressure system and cold front will cross the region tonight. Sufficient moisture ahead of the front will allow for periods of rain to overspread the region this afternoon and continue through this evening. Forecast soundings still support little or no instability across the region. While a rumble of thunder could occur with any periods of heavier rain (especially south of Albany), no severe weather is expected. Most areas could pick up between 0.30 and 0.75 inches of rain which should not be enough to cause any hydrologic issues. As the cold front drops southward overnight, precipitation will gradually taper off from north to south. Temperatures may fall fast enough for precipitation to briefly mix with or change over to snow across areas north of Albany overnight before ending but will not bring anymore than a light dusting of accumulation. Following a mild afternoon, temperatures will fall back to the upper teens and 20s across portions of the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and southern Vermont to the 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Following a period of mainly dry weather Friday through Monday (including a chilly Saturday) the potential for additional rounds of mainly rainfall is expected as early as Tuesday and continuing through late next week. Mainly zonal flow will set up across the CONUS next week with the primary upper jet set up near the US/Canada border. This will support a period of near to above normal temperatures across the area. Periods of rainfall are likely pending the timing of individual shortwaves through the flow. A persistent southerly flow from the Gulf thanks in part to high pressure over the western Atlantic will aid in favorable moisture with any passing system. There remains some uncertainty with the timing and track of any system that does pass through as well as how much rainfall occurs. This also leads to very low confidence whether or not this additional rainfall would lead to any hydrologic impacts. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites this afternoon as visible satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming into the region ahead of an incoming frontal system. Ceilings will continue to develop and lower through the afternoon, though VFR conditions should remain in place. By this evening, rain begins to move in from northwest to southeast, gradually spreading into terminal boundaries by this evening. Initially, rainfall rates should be rather light, especially considering there is a fair amount of dry air to be overcome in the lower levels. Visibilities should therefore remain unaffected with ceilings lowering into low-end VFR thresholds. As the column moistens and forcing for ascent increases just ahead of the front, rainfall will become more steady with rates potentially becoming more moderate. There are some differences in the guidance pertaining to the timing of these more moderate to locally heavy rates as well as their locations. That said, generally it looks as though each terminal could have some steadier rain between 02-08z so TEMPO groups were included accordingly. MVFR conditions can largely be expected within these periods of moderate rainfall, though some patchy IFR conditions cannot be ruled out due to lowered ceiling heights. Behind the front, rain clears out fairly quickly tomorrow morning, but some lingering showers could occur particularly at KALB as some of the guidance hints at the potential for some localized convergence through daybreak. But upon the conclusion of these, conditions will begin to improve as at all other terminals with VFR conditions anticipated to return by the end of the 18z cycle. Winds will begin the period prevailing out of the southwest at sustained speeds ranging from about 8-12 kt. By tomorrow, though, winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and become breezy with sustained speeds ranging from 10-15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...12