701 FXUS61 KALY 152055 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 455 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Quick update late this afternoon to raise temperatures in most areas from around Albany south. Also lowered PoPs across the entire area through sunset due to lack of forcing and a well mixed environment. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. there is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms this evening, and a better chance tomorrow with a slight risk (level 2/5) for areas north of I-90. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. Tranquil weather expected Friday into early next week. Temperatures trend below normal Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM EDT: Earlier this morning, a decaying MCS tracked through the region, which helped to reinforce the thermal gradient along a sfc frontal boundary that was draped near the I-90 corridor. This boundary has become more diffuse and drifted back north over the last hour or two, but there is still large temperature contrast across the region with 60s across northern areas to low 80s near the I-84 corridor. Confidence is low whether or not any convection will develop this afternoon/evening. If it does, this boundary will likely be the focus for CI. However, low- level convergence along this boundary isn't overly strong, and there is not much in the way of upper-level support with weak height rises aloft. Current satellite imagery shows some modest vertical growth to the cu field to our west over central NY, but not to the extent that we would like to see to give us confidence in convection developing. That said, if any convection does develop, the environment south of I-90 is generally favorable with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. If any storms develop they could therefore become strong to severe (primary hazard gusty winds), but will emphasize that this threat is conditional upon convection actually developing. Even if storms develop, expecting coverage to remain isolated at best this afternoon into early evening. However, upper forcing increases tonight as a shortwave aloft tracks along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will increase as well. A decaying MCS associated with the upper shortwave is expected to track from west to east across our region, bringing better chances for rain and thunderstorms. Showalter values drop as low as -2 to -4, but model forecast soundings suggest that the instability should remain elevated. Therefore, we are not expecting any additional severe weather with the showers and storms overnight tonight. Tomorrow, a sfc low out ahead of a fairly potent upper shortwave trough tracks from the Great Lakes across the North Country. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front, putting our entire region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low tracks eastwards across upstate NY tomorrow, a pre-frontal trough will track across the region during the afternoon. Then, the sfc low will drag a cold front through the region tomorrow evening, which will coincide with strengthening upper forcing/height falls aloft as the aforementioned strong shortwave approaching from the west. Strengthening flow aloft ahead of the upper shortwave will yield 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Instability also looks supportive of severe weather, with up to 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE and some locally higher pockets. Main question is whether the pre-frontal trough will act as the mechanism to initiate convection, or if things will hold off until the cold front and better upper forcing arrive in the very late afternoon/evening. Regardless, the parameter space looks fairly impressive, especially for mid April, so we agree with the SPC slight risk for severe storms across northern portions of our region. Any cells that develop with the pre-frontal trough could initially be discrete, but straight hodographs suggest splitting cells/upscale growth, especially as we get into the evening with better forcing arriving. Main threat will be damaging winds, as DCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg, but the straight hodographs and fast flow aloft will also support a secondary hail threat. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but there is not a lot of low-level directional shear and LCLs may be on the higher side given potential for deep BL mixing before any storms develop. Best chance for severe convection will be near and north of I-90, but there is a marginal risk for most of the rest of our region. Main threat would be wind as storms track into an area with a deeply-mixed BL, but instability should be waning by this time with the still relatively early sunsets. Timing for severe weather looks to be late afternoon through the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms come to and end Thursday night as the cold front tracks off to the south and east of our region. Cooler and drier air filters into the region Friday, with mainly dry conditions across the region. Tranquil weather expected Friday and Saturday as ridging amplifies aloft and high pressure at the surface builds down from the north. A deepening sfc low tracking through the Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front northward through the region and bring scattered showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder Saturday night, but given overnight timing of the frontal passage severe weather is not expected. Behind this cold front, breezy but dry weather is expected Sunday/Monday. Much cooler weather is also expected behind this front with highs only in the 40s to 50s Sunday and 30s to 40s Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z/Thursday, mainly VFR conditions expected through early this evening, though can not rule out a brief period of MVFR Vsbys in isolated showers through 22Z/Thu, perhaps with thunder at KPOU. Showers/thunderstorms currently across lower MI and the midwest should track eastward into the region between 04Z-08Z/Thu, bringing areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. In the wake of these showers/storms, a period of MVFR/IFR conditions (mainly Cigs) will be possible, with greatest chance at KGFL. Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. Light/variable winds should trend into the southwest by mid/late afternoon and increase to 5-10 KT with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible at KPOU, KPSF and KALB. KGFL will generally have light northeast to east winds 4-8 KT before becoming south to southwest by late afternoon at 5-10 KT. Winds become light/variable after sunset through early Thursday morning, before shifting into the southwest and increasing to 5-10 KT by midday Thursday. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 90(1941) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...24/23 CLIMATE...07