041 FXUS61 KALY 230549 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 149 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 900 PM EDT, periods of rain continue mainly for areas along and south of the Capital District this evening with precipitation expected to slowly wind down from north to south tonight. As colder air builds southward, precipitation may changeover to snow or a wintry mix for a brief time before ending, mainly for areas south of Albany. Little or no accumulation is expected and impacts looks to be minimal due to air temperatures remaining at or above freezing and mild road temperatures. However, some elevated surfaces or sidewalks could become slippery early Monday morning, especially for areas where air temperatures fall below freezing. Adjustments were made to temperatures, PoPs and weather through the rest of the night to match ongoing trends. Have also expanded PoPs a bit on Monday for occasional rain/snow showers as an upper level trough crosses the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Steady rainfall will taper off this evening into tonight, with some high terrain areas seeing a brief period of snow or freezing drizzle as precipitation comes to an end by Monday morning. A few spots could see slick conditions as temperatures drop to near freezing. 2) After a chilly start to the week, temperatures will moderate back towards normal levels by the middle of the week. With only limited amounts of precipitation expected this week, weather impacts from precipitation are not anticipated for this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front passed through the region early this morning and is now located just north of the area across the North Country and into central Vermont. Meanwhile, surface low pressure is approaching the area from the west, with a cold front draped back to the southwest towards the eastern Great Lakes and Midwest. After a brief break in the precipitation, steady rainfall has returned to the entire region. Surface temps are above freezing everywhere, so precip is just plain rain. While the Adirondacks remain in the upper 30s, everywhere else has risen into the 40s to lower 50s. Bands of light rainfall will continue through the evening hours. Some moderate bursts are possible at times, although radar imagery looks a little worse than reality due to some bright banding aloft. Still, NYS mesonet is showing rates up to 0.15 inches per hour, so some ponding is expected. At this point, have not included thunder in our area based off the latest NBM, although some strikes have been noted earlier today across western New York. As the front settles southeast, the steadiest rainfall will shut off from northwest to southeast for this evening into tonight. The front may slow its progress towards the late night as another wave develops along the boundary, which may linger the precip for far southern areas. Based on this, have leaned towards the higher end of the blended guidance for QPF for far southern areas, with around 0.75" total for far mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. With colder air arriving from the north behind the boundary, there is a slight chance for the precip to end as some wet snow. Best chance of this would be high terrain of western New England and the Taconics for late tonight, with the wave on the front allowing the precip to linger for far southern areas. Any accumulation would be a coating to half inch. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible as well as low-level moisture lingers while the drier air moves in aloft behind the boundary, but impacts looks fairly limited at this time. Most areas will be done with precip on Monday morning. However, with the passing upper level trough, there could be a few passing instability snow showers during Monday afternoon. Some flakes in the air will be possible, but accumulation looks very limited as surface temps will probably be above freezing in the mid 30s to low 40s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The week will start off on the cool side with highs on Monday only in the 30s to low 40s. Temps will be fairly chilly on Monday night as well, with lows in the teens and 20s as some clearing occurs. While Tuesday will be below normal once again, temps look a little warmer compared to Monday with most areas in the 40s. Moderation will occur for Wednesday into Thursday as the low level flow returns out of the south to southwest. Valley areas should see highs into the 50s for both days. There could be a few passing rain showers for late Wednesday into Thursday, but moisture looks fairly limited and total precip won't be enough to cause any issues. There may be a cool down for Friday into the weekend with some additional showers (Thursday night into Friday), but again, precip doesn't look enough to cause any hydro issues and p-type will generally be rain for most areas outside the high terrain. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z/Tue...A boundary remains stalled between ALB and POU tonight with a second period of widespread rain tracking through POU and PSF resulting in MVFR cigs/vis. With northerly winds funneling cold air southward, rain at PSF may mix with sleet pellets and/or snow from 09 - 12 UTC. Given low confidence for wintry mix, included in a PROB30 group. While the steadiest rain exits by 12-13 UTC, expecting patchy showers/mist to linger at PSF and POU before yet another area of precipitation to develop over PSF/POU, even extending to ALB. With northerly winds maintaining cold air advection, temperatures will be cooling and should support IFR cigs/vis from snow at PSF/ALB/POU between 14 and 18 UTC. GFL will likely remain north of this precipitation and remain VFR. Steady precipitation finally exits by 18-19 UTC from west to east with MVFR cigs lingering at ALB/PSF/POU through the afternoon. High resolution guidance shows additional snow showers developing late afternoon into the early evening at all terminals leading to potential IFR flying conditions. By 03 - 06 UTC, snow showers exit from west to east with flying conditions improving back to VFR at GFL/ALB/POU. PSF is the exception with MVFR cigs lingering through the end of the TAF period. Northerly winds remain sustained 6-12kts through the TAF period with occasional gusts to 15kts. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27/33 AVIATION...31