077 FXUS61 KALY 220001 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 801 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased chances of rain showers through mid day tomorrow as the precipitation lingers later into the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mostly dry this week with temperatures staying around average for late April. 2) The combination of breezy and dry conditions on Thursday and Friday may lead to an elevated risk for fire spread. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak warm front lifts into the region tonight bringing in some precipitation overnight and into tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings show that there will be cold enough air in place initially that elevations above 1000 feet or so would see snow showers but rain at lower elevations. The snow chances are short lived as 850 mb temperatures climb above freezing by sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow morning, a broad, open 500 mb shortwave drops into the region, stalling the warm front and keeping precipitation lasting through at least mid morning. The southern Greens and Berkshire mountains may have rain showers linger into the afternoon depending on whether the front actually stalls completely and keeps upslope rain and drizzle going. The rest of the week, eastern NY and far western New England will remain under NW flow as a large upper level low slowly occludes east of New England. A ridge in the central US nudges in just far enough to suppress precipitation and keep the region dry. With the weak cold air advection aloft but strong solar heating in April, day time highs will largely be steady in the upper 50s to low 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast models on Thursday show a weak surface low off of the New England coast with high pressure building in at the surface tightens the pressure gradient. Dry air advecting in from the NW just above the boundary layer will mix down in the afternoon along with gusty northerly winds with min RHs potentially down around 30%. This dry NW flow pattern persist into Friday though the winds at the surface should be a little lighter though min RH will be similar. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00 UTC Thursday...VFR conditions through at least 06Z this evening at all terminals. Then, showers ahead of an incoming warm front first reach POU between between 03 to 06 UTC before spreading north and eastward to ALB, PSF, and GFL towards 09 - 12 UTC. Cigs likely trend downwards to MVFR at PSF, GFL, and ALB by 09 - 15 UTC with higher confidence for increased low- level moisture to result in MVFR cigs by 12 to 14 UTC. Showers look heaviest at POU and PSF with PSF even mixing with snow for a few hours 09 - 12 UTC where we included a PROB30 group. The most widespread coverage of showers should be through 15 UTC before showers diminish and become more intermittent by 15 - 18 UTC. Low-level moisture and low stratus resulting in MVFR cigs lingers through the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, southeasterly winds turn breezy tonight with sustained winds 5-15kts and gusts up to 20-25kts. Breezy southeasterly winds trend weaker by tomorrow afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...31