026 FXUS61 KALY 022341 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 741 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for elevations above 1500 ft in southern VT for tonight for light freezing rain accumulations. Ice accumulations slightly reduced due to warmer thermal profiles overnight. Some adjustments to temp trends tonight with warming towards the mid to late morning for all locations. Winds and gusts were increased tomorrow, as the warm front moves through it will be breezy. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Moderate flooding continues on the West Canada Creek below Hinckley Reservoir tonight into tomorrow, with moderate to minor flooding along Kast Bridge on the West Canada Creek, as the Mohawk River near Little Falls may fall below the Minor Flood Stage early tonight. 2) Light freezing rain over the southern Greens tonight, where a Winter Wx Advisory was issued due to some slick spots on untreated surfaces. Spotty plain rain is expected for most of the rest of the region. 3) High confidence for additional showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend with a frontal passage, then trending cooler and drier for weather into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:50 PM EDT...Moderate flooding continues on West Canada Creek this afternoon due to the heavy rain and snow melt Tue and Wed. The Mohawk River near Little Falls remains in minor flood stage, but continues to recede and may fall below flood early tonight. Kast Bridge on the West Canada Creek may also lower a category from Moderate to Minor Flood Stage tonight based on the latest NERFC forecast, as it continues to slowly recede. Hinckley Reservoir may continue to flood through Fri. Flows remain elevated across much of the Hydro Service Area from the Capital Region northward with up to a half inch of rainfall north of the mid Hudson Valley, but very little rainfall across the southern Adirondack Region in the past 24 hours. Any additional rainfall this afternoon through tonight will be light with a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so. Overall, flows will continue to recede tonight through Friday. For the latest river forecasts, please see www.water.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure near the Gulf of St Lawrence and Nova Scotia continues to funnel some shallow cold air across New England and upstate NY. The cold air damming signature has kept it cool today across the region into the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the southern Greens with periods of light rain and spotty freezing rain over the higher terrain of the southern Greens and portions of the Adirondack Pack. One short-wave moved across the region this morning, as the warm front still remains well south of the area over the Mid Atlantic Region and lower Great Lakes Corridor. The warm front attempts to approach from the south and west tonight. It may reach western NY towards daybreak tomorrow. Weak isentropic lift continues ahead of the front, as another weak impulse passes north of the border. Some scattered showers increase overnight with a few thunderstorms near the Tug hill Plateau or western Dacks, whereas mainly spotty light freezing rain lingers tonight into tomorrow especially over or along the southern Greens. Any ice will be mainly on elevated surfaces for elevations above 1500 feet. We will monitor the northern Berkshires if an SPS or expansion of the Winter Wx Advisory for Bennington and western Windham Counties is needed. Light ice accums of a coating to around a tenth of an inch are possible and with the night time cooling some slick spots may occur on elevated surfaces. Marginal thermal profiles and warm ground conditions will prevent a more impactful event. The ice amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to lead to tree damage/power outage concerns. Lows tonight fall into the 30s with some upper 20s over the southern Greens and then slowly rise overnight. A low pressure system will pass north and west of the region on Friday across southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec with a low and mid level warm front moving through. Some scattered showers will linger in the morning before a trend to partly sunny skies. Some cooler temps in the 50s will continue across the southern Greens and southern Dacks, but highs on Friday will reach the 60s and even lower 70s (about 10-15 degrees above normal) with drier and breezy conditions. Southerly winds will be 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. We blended the forecast/NBM/NBM 90% wind/wind gusts for the forecast. The cold front comes through at night with limited low-level moisture and strong synoptic forcing with just a few isolated to widely scattered showers with lows falling back in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s over the Adirondack Park. KEY MESSAGE 3... Low and mid level heights briefly build in over NY and New England early Saturday, as sfc high pressure builds south/southeast from Canada. Another low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes Region. Low to mid level warm advection increases during the late morning into the afternoon with clouds thickening and lowering. Isolated to scattered showers may move in during the early to mid pm with the increasing isentropic lift. Locations north and east of the Capital Region (east of the Adirondacks and southern Greens) may hold in the 50s or upper 40s with yet again a cold air damming signature with the retreating sfc anticyclone to the north and east. Expect 60s and maybe a few 70s from the Capital Region south and west. The next sfc wave and cold front move towards and across the region Sat night through Sun or Easter morning with periods of showers and a few thunderstorms. There is good low-level and moisture convergence with the front. We are in a General Thunderstorm Forecast from SPC at this time, as any thunderstorms Sat night/Sun morning are not expected to be severe due to limited instability and heating. Rainfall amounts may range from a quarter of an inch to an inch with highest amounts for the southwest Adirondacks, where river flows are elevated. Given wet antecedent conditions will continue to monitor for the potential of any renewed hydro issues. Most of the HEFS show only a 5-10% chance for additional flooding in the West Canada and western Mohawk Basins but will continue to monitor. Highs on Easter will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s with some 40s over the Adirondack Park. Some lake effect snow showers may occur Sun night into Mon morning in the cold advection regime behind the front in the cyclonic flow. Cooler, brisk, and drier conditions take hold Mon into the middle of next week with a warming trend by the mid to late week. One disturbance in the cyclonic flow may bring some scattered rain/snow showers Mon night into Tue across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR/IFR Cigs and VFR/MVFR Vsbys are expected overnight into Friday morning, with the best chance for IFR Cigs between 06Z-14Z/Fri as the warm front approaches from the south and west. Vsbys may occasionally drop to IFR within any heavier showers between 06Z-14Z/Fri. MVFR/IFR Cigs should gradually improve to VFR after 18Z-22Z/Fri, with improvements occurring last at KGFL and KPSF. East to southeast winds 5-10 KT through Friday morning except southeast and increasing to 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT at KALB. Winds will become southeast to south by late Friday morning at 8-12 KT, then south to southwest at similar speeds Friday afternoon, with a few gusts up to 20 KT possible. Low level wind shear is expected overnight through Friday morning at all sites except KALB as east to southeast winds remain below 10 KT while winds around 2000 FT AGL veer from southeast to southwest and increase to 30-40 KT overnight. Low level wind shear threat should diminish after 14Z/Fri. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VTZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...24