095 FXUS61 KALY 010641 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 241 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Ice accumulations for the highest terrain locations in southern Vermont on Thursday have increased. Otherwise, no other significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hydrological concerns continue for minor river flooding through this afternoon due to recent heavy rainfall in Herkimer and Hamilton counties. 2) Another weather system is expected to bring medium to high chances of precipitation to eastern New York and western New England Thursday. Potential flooding impacts look to be low at this forecast period. 3) Unsettled weather conditions continue through this weekend, with the overall flood threat at this time being low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Flood Watches continue for Herkimer and Hamilton counties through 8 PM tonight due to recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt impacting local rivers and streams. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall have fallen across these counties. Minor to moderate flood stages on local rivers and streams such as the West Canada Creek at Hinckley and Sacandaga River at Hope continue to be forecasted today by the northeast river forecast center. With only additional light precipitation today between 0.25 and 0.5 inches in the next 24 hours, flooding concerns decrease tonight for these locations. However, ponding of water on roadways and high river flows could continue into the overnight hours tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thursday is looking to be a dreary day in store with overcast skies and medium to high (60-80%) chances for precipitation as our next weather system moves through eastern New York and western New England. The current forecast supports the precipitation type to be rain for most of eastern New York and western New England as temperatures stay above freezing. Locations for this exception are across the southern Adirondacks and high terrain of the southern Greens, where light freezing rain, then a light mix of rain and snow can occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ice accumulations with this morning forecast has increased to range between 0.1 inches and 0.25 inches across the highest terrain locations in southern Vermont. For the southern Adirondacks, ice accumulations continue to range between 0.01 inches and 0.1 inches. This could lead to a few slick spots on non-pavement surfaces in the southwestern Adirondacks and highest terrain locations of the southern Greens Thursday morning.Temperatures gradually rise late Thursday morning to above freezing for precipitation to change over to plain rain. Precipitation chances decrease Thursday night to less than 60%. With the latest forecast supporting light precipitation amounts less a quarter inch, confidence continues to increase for no significant flooding impacts to occur for Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3... For this weekend, medium to high chances for precipitation return after a brief break on Friday. Flooding concerns at this forecast time are low as precipitation is looking to be light Saturday into Sunday. With low temperatures above freezing and high temperatures in the 50s and 70s, precipitation type will be rain this weekend. Latest ensemble forecast model guidances are supporting for Saturday to be isolated to scattered rain showers with breaks of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Sunday afternoon is shaping up to be widespread rain showers, but confidence is low if breaks in the precipitation occurs. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...Showers are currently tracking off to the east of our region with MVFR conditions at ALB/PSF and VFR at GFL/POU. Showers with lingering MVFR vsbys/cigs possible for the first couple hours of the TAF period, but outside of these showers mainly VFR conditions expected through around 12z this morning. Then, cold front moves through the region with cigs dropping back down to MVFR for much of the morning at all terminals. Some IFR possible at GFL, but confidence is not yet high enough to put in the TAF. By late morning/early afternoon, cigs should trend back to mainly VFR for all terminals. However, an area of showers will move up from the south tomorrow evening and night. Showers with MVFR vsbys possible at POU from early evening through the end of the TAF period. For ALB/PSF, have just included a prob30 for the last few hours of the TAF period. Showers should remain south of GFL through 06z. Winds will generally be from the southwest at 5-10 kt until the cold front arrives this morning, then veer the the N/NE at 5-10 kt with some gusts to 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon. Gusts subside after sunset, with winds remain from the NE through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ032-033-038. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...35