166 FXUS61 KALY 052326 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 726 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Earlier timing of snow showers developing Monday night into early Tuesday due to faster movement of a clipper-type system approaching from the Great Lakes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A low pressure system and cold front will continue to rain into this afternoon. Runoff from the rain is result in some minor flooding along the West Canada Creek. 2) Brisk and cool weather returns early this week with a clipper system bringing snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday. Light snow accumulations could occur, especially across higher elevations. 3) Milder weather returns for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain has ended across the Capital District and will continue to taper off south/east of Albany as a cold front passes through this afternoon. Once the front clears the area dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the daylight hours. The rain has resulted in some river rises, with minor flooding occurring in a limited area along the West Canada Creek at Hinckley Reservoir and Kast Bridge. KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder air will start to filter in from the NW later this afternoon into tonight. A disturbance along the leading edge of an approaching upper trough may bring widely scattered snow showers to some areas well north/west of the Capital District tonight, especially in the W. Adirondacks where upslope flow enhances snow showers coverage. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooling into the mid 20s to mid 30s by early Mon Morning. An upper level trough will take residence across the Great Lakes and Northeast Mon through Tue night, resulting in below normal temperatures. 850 mb temperature anomalies from the NAEFS are forecast to be mainly -1 to -2 STDEV during this time, so highs and lows will likely be several degrees below normal. A potent clipper-type system is expected to bring scattered to numerous snow showers Mon night into early Tue. Due to timing being mostly at night, there could be a coating of snow even in valley locations, with 0.5" to 1.5" in higher elevations. Any snow in lower elevations should be mainly confined to grassy surfaces, but a quick burst of snow may reduce visibility. Snow showers in higher elevations could result in some areas of slippery travel during the early part of the Tue morning commute. This system looks to exit to the east Tue afternoon, although it will be brisk and cold through the day. NW winds expected to gust between 20-30 mph. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upper trough exits by Wed, with surface high pressure in place over the region. As the high shifts east off the New England coast on Tue, temperatures will warm back to above normal levels Thu and especially Fri into Sat. With SW flow aloft, but still fairly zonal, will have to watch for a front approaching Fri into Fri night. Most sources of guidance are just indicating a low chance for some light showers with limited forcing and moisture expected. At this time the mild air mass is expected to last into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z/Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions are expected despite persistent Cigs of 4000-6000 FT AGL. A passing upper level disturbance could bring isolated rain showers to KALB between 02Z-05Z/Mon, and rain/snow showers to KPSF during similar time. Brief MVFR Vsbys/Cigs could occur. West to northwest winds will average 5-10 KT overnight except 8-15 KT with gusts up to 25-30 KT at KALB and KPSF. West to northwest winds will average 8-17 KT all sites from late Monday morning through mid afternoon, with occasional gusts up to 25-30 KT, strongest and most persistent at KALB and KPSF. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...24