485 FXUS61 KALY 071036 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 636 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some patchy fog was added this morning in the Hudson River Valley, Lake George Saratoga Region and portions of western New England and the showers were lingered longer for the mid Hudson Valley and western New England. A Frost Advisory was issued for the Lake George Saratoga Region/Upper Hudson River Valley, where the growing season has begun for areas of frost. Some changes to sky cover and the arrival time for PoPs/showers with the short-wave and low pressure system for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost Advisory for areas of frost for southeast Warren, Washington and northern Saratoga Counties midnight to 7 am Fri. 2) Unsettled weather pattern return Fri night into this weekend with very low chances of significant weather impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The cold front is moving east of New England this morning with a weak wave moving along it, bringing some showers well south and east of the Capital District. These showers will diminish after daybreak, patchy fog will dissipate with weak high pressure building in from OH and PA. It will be cool aloft today with H850 temps -2C to +3C with partly to mostly sunny skies. Temps will run below normal in the mid 50s to lowers 60s in the valleys and mid 40s to mid 50s over the higher terrain with a west/northwest breeze. Tonight, the skies will begin mostly clear to partly cloudy with an opportunity for the winds to go light to calm over the Lake George Saratoga Region and the Upper Hudson Valley. The growing season has begun for southeast Warren, northern Saratoga and Washington Counties, so temps of 33-36F may allow for areas of frost to form. A Frost Advisory has been issued from midnight to 7 am Fri. A weak impulse moving through the long-wave trough may produce some clouds late tonight and a few showers closer to I-84 in the mid Hudson River Valley. We were less confident for scattered to areas of frost south of the Advisory area. It will be a cool night across the region with lows in the 30s to lower 40s with a few upper 20s in the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. KEY MESSAGE 2... A rather active pattern continues Friday through the weekend, though no major impacts for the forecast area are not expected. Another short-wave moves across the forecast area on Friday with very little low level moisture, but a few showers will be possible from the Capital Region/Mohawk Valley southward with temps still running 5-10 degrees below normal. The medium range and ensembles guidance indicates another short-wave rounding the base of the long-wave trough over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. The low pressure system and its warm front increases the threat of showers late Fri night into Sat, as it approaches from the OH Valley and PA. The isentropic lift increases for the greatest probabilities of showers in the 60-90% range from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region/southern VT southward and high chances 30-50% to the north. The showers end Sat evening with NBM QPF in the two tenths to half inch range across eastern NY and western New England. The highest amounts are projected across western New England and south of the Capital Region. Temps on Saturday will likely be cool and damp in the upper 40s to upper 50s. A brief break in the showers occurs Sunday morning into the early afternoon. However, a cold front and then a wave of low pressure developing near the Mid Atlantic Region will increase the threat for rainfall again. There is still some spread in the ensembles/ guidance on the development, evolution and track of the wave along the front, but PoPs increase into the 55-75% range for Sun night into Mon for another quarter to half inch of rainfall (or slightly higher) based on the WPC guidance. Temps on Mothers Day moderate closer to seasonal readings in the 60s to lower 70s, except 50s over the Adirondack Park, but cool back down below normal for early next week. At this time, the rainfall does not appear to pose any risk for flooding, but some ponding of water on roadways or isolated poor drainage flooding may occur for a few spots. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12z Friday...VFR conditions have returned across the region as clouds continue to rapidly dissipate. Such conditions will continue throughout the 12z period as skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy with high pressure building in. Clouds may re-develop late in the period as a weak shortwave trough swings through the region, but ceilings should remain well within VFR thresholds. Winds have already become breezy at ALB and PSF where sustained speeds sit at 10 and 14 kt respectively. Breezy northwest winds will be common today courtesy of deep mixing amid a modestly steep pressure gradient. Sustained speeds will range from about 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. But once we lose daytime heading and the high moves more overhead this evening, winds will quickly decrease to under 10 kt sustained overnight. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Friday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...12