636 FXUS61 KALY 141025 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 625 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter weather headlines and wind advisory remain in effect with no changes from the previous issuance. Otherwise, confidence continues to increase for an intense storm system bringing the potential for strong winds, heavy rainfall, and even a few thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Behind a departing clipper system, lingering snow shower may result in slippery travel conditions across northern areas today. Gusty west winds expected today as well. 2) A potent storm system will bring strong winds and locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through Monday night. Renewed minor river flooding may occur especially across NW CT. 3) Strong gusty winds expected behind this storm system Tuesday, with below normal temperatures through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 3:00 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows our clipper as a weakening 999 mb sfc low over southern Ontario, collocated beneath a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough. These features will track to our north along the International Border today; the system's occluded front, currently located across central NY, will track through our region over the next few hours. With and ahead of the frontal passage, some light snow showers are expected, especially across northern and western areas through early this morning. Overnight lows will be mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s. Behind the occluded front today, two main hazards will be lingering lake enhanced/upslope snow showers and gusty winds. Setup for the snow showers is as follows: 850 mb temps drop to around -9 to -11C, while Lake Ontario sfc temps are currently around +2 to +3C. With W/NW winds and a Georgian Bay connection, this will elicit a lake response, although lowering inversion heights and some low-level directional shear will keep the resulting lake effect/enhanced snow showers somewhat disorganized and limit their intensity. Nevertheless, scattered snow showers linger through this morning across the ADKs, where there will be some enhancement from NW upslope flow. Upslope flow and lake moisture enhancement into the southern Greens may result in additional lingering snow showers there as well this morning, although upslope snow showers should diminish by this afternoon as Froude numbers increase to >5. Up to 3-5" of additional snow possible today in the western ADKs, with generally lower amounts elsewhere. Accordingly, no changes made to the existing winter weather headlines, although the advisory in the Catskills may be able to be cancelled prior to its expiration time of 12z this morning. As for the winds, low-level cold advection and some breaks of sun today will help promote mixing to around 850 mb, where the LLJ looks to strengthen to 45-50 kt thanks to a strong pressure gradient between high pressure building into the Great Lakes and a strengthening secondary low off the coast of Maine. Forecast soundings suggest downward momentum transfer could result in wind gusts up to around 50 mph today in the normal NW channeled flow areas of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and Berkshires. For these areas, wind advisory will remain in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM today. Confidence is fairly high in advisory criteria being met in these areas, especially with numerous reports of gusty winds upstream with this system yesterday. Outside of these areas, winds will still be gusty, but are expected to remain below advisory criteria. The winds could also lead to blowing and drifting of snow that fell yesterday/this morning, especially in the ADKs where the snow was fluffier. Snow showers should end by this afternoon, with winds beginning to diminish after sunset this evening as high pressure builds overhead. A mid-level warm front lifting north could bring a few snow showers to far northern areas on Sunday, but otherwise tranquil weather expected tonight through Sunday. Tonight will be seasonably cold with lows in the 10s to 20s. Sunday, the sfc warm front remains to our south, and there is somewhat of a cold air damming signature with the sfc high retreating to the NE. So, we lowered highs by a few degrees from the NBM in the ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, and along the eastern slopes of the high terrain in western New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... Sunday night, upper troughing becomes highly amplified over the center of the country, which will result in an expansive sfc low deepening to around 980 mb as it tracks through the Great Lakes region Monday. A southern stream impulse embedded in the SW flow out ahead of this system, along with low-level warm advection/isentropic lift will result in an area of rain tracking across the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Some of the colder guidance indicates sfc temps may be just cold enough for some spotty freezing rain across the high terrain of the ADKs and southern Greens, but confidence is low whether or not it will be cold enough. A lull in the steady precip is expected for much of the day Monday, although there will likely still be some isolated to scattered showers around. We will be in the system's warm sector, with highs in the 50s and 60s. The southerly LLJ cranks up to 55-65 kt, so we will likely have some gusty winds again, especially in the S/SE favored areas along the western slopes of the Taconics and in the Hudson Valley. Then, Monday evening or early Monday night, the system's cold front tracks through the region. PWATs increase to up to 1.0 to 1.2" which is 4-5 std dev above normal, and likely will be near the record daily max per the SPC sounding climatology. This anomalous moisture will overlap with very strong forcing, with strong upper divergence due to CVA and the right entrance of a jet streak to our north. Very strong low-level convergence along the front itself will further add to the forcing for ascent. Therefore, expecting a period of heavy rain with and ahead of the cold front. Total QPF amounts will likely range from around an inch to possibly 1.5-2" in the Catskills and portions of southwestern New England, so we will have to watch for potential ponding of water, river rises, and localized ice jams where any ice remains on the rivers (mainly across northern areas). There is currently a low to medium chance of minor river flooding (best chance across western New England) per the NAEFS and HEFS ensembles, so we will continue to closely monitor over the coming days. Guidance also suggests that there will be some elevated instability ahead of the front, so thunder will be possible as well. Main questions if how much (if any) surface based instability there will be. Timing for the frontal passage has trended slightly later in the evening, which looks to limit surface based instability and therefore the threat for any severe weather. However given strength of the LLJ, even modest SBCAPE values could result in a high shear/low CAPE setup with gusty winds mixing down to the surface. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the front, temperatures cool quickly, so some areas may even see precip change over to wet snow briefly before ending by 12z Tuesday. It will be quite windy behind the front as well Monday night and Tuesday, with the ECMWF ensemble showing and EFI of 0.8 to 0.9 and a SoT>1, indicating fairly high confidence for strong wind gusts Monday night and Tuesday. Wind advisories will likely be needed as we get closer in time. The airmass behind this system looks quite cold as well, with 850 mb temps dropping to -15C to possibly -20C Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in cold/below normal temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday. The current deterministic temperature forecast did not stray too far from the NBM for now, but will likely need to be adjusted downward in the coming days. There could also be some lake effect snow in western areas through Tuesday night, but accumulations look light. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing in most areas Tue, with gusty NW winds making it feel colder. Temperatures should moderate for the second half of next week, with generally tranquil weather expected Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An occluded frontal system is in the process of moving across the region. Winds are starting to switch to the southwest now with the front passing through and winds will be increasing over the next few hours, becoming 10 to 15 kts by the mid-morning hours, with some gusts over 20 kts. By the late morning hours, winds will become westerly and increase to 15 to 20 kts. Some gusts, mainly at KALB and KPSF will be as high as 30 to 35 kts for the late morning through early evening hours. Winds will start to decrease for tonight as nocturnal effects take over and the pressure gradient starts to relax. Radar imagery continues to show some scattered snow showers, mainly for KGFL and KPSF. Although most areas are currently VFR, there could be some brief IFR snow showers, mainly at KPSF due to the upslope flow, over the next few hours. Otherwise, snow showers will be decreasing through the morning hours, allowing for a dry afternoon and no precip for tonight. BKN to OVC ceilings will mainly be VFR today, with ceilings heights around 4-5 kft. Ceilings will become scattered to few for this evening into tonight. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Definite RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Definite SHRA...SHSN...RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040- 047>054-058-063. Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ032- 033. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ042-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ058- 063. MA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VTZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...27