625 FXUS61 KALY 032316 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 616 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisory in effect across most of eastern New York and western New England, except for the southern Adirondacks, for a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain this afternoon into tonight. Increased snow totals to 2-3" in the Greater Capital Region prior to wintry mix transition. Rainfall amounts have trended greater for Thursday into Friday, especially from around I-90 south. However, temperatures have trended slightly colder so there is low confidence whether hydro concerns will develop. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slippery travel for this afternoon/evening commute, due to snow changing to a wintry mix including freezing rain late this afternoon into this evening. 2) Additional slippery travel across parts of the southern Adirondacks, southern Vermont and the Berkshires Thursday night into Friday morning from a period of freezing rain. Widespread rain is expected elsewhere. 3) High confidence in above normals temperatures this weekend into early next week. Combined with multiple chances for rainfall, this will result in snowmelt and increased runoff. The potential for ice jams and flooding looks to increase during this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The Winter Weather Advisory continues across much of the area due to slippery travel and poor visibility at times due to snow, along with a transition to a wintry mix later this afternoon into this evening. Radar and obs showing snow falling across much of the area early this afternoon, with the most widespread snowfall along the I-90 corridor including the Capital District. Some enhanced snowfall rates have been occurring, so have increased snow totals to 2-3" in the greater Capital Region. Due to overall colder surface temperatures, when the expected warm nose arrives from SW to NE later this afternoon into early this evening, snow will likely change to sleet and/or freezing rain. This will occur first across areas south of Albany, then spreading north/east into the Capital District, along I-90 and into Berkshires/southern VT. So the evening commute will be messy, with slippery travel across much of the region. By around 7 PM, most of the precip from I-90 south will likely be freezing rain, with a mix to the north (except mainly snow with some sleet in the S. Adirondacks). Surface temperatures hovering near 32F in many valley locations this evening, so there will still be a threat of icing especially on untreated surfaces. Temperature could start to finally nudge up to ~33-34F in some spots which will result in a change to plain rain, although it will remain near or just below 32F in many higher elevations locations. Widespread precip is expected to taper off from west to east shortly after midnight, however some lingering pockets of light rain or freezing rain may occur until 3-5 AM. KEY MESSAGE 2... After a break in the precipitation on Wed with high pressure building in, the next round is expected to develop Thu into Thu night as isentropic lift increases ahead of a warm front slowly advancing northward from the mid Atlantic region. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed night, but precip should hold off until after temperatures rise above 32F for most areas. There is a slight chance of freezing rain south/west of Albany early Thu morning. Otherwise, we are anticipating mainly rain across the region with freezing rain limited to the highest terrain of the S. Adirondacks, S. Greens and the Berkshires. Precip expands and intensifies Thu afternoon into Thu night as a short-wave trough aloft moves through with isentropic lift continuing as the front pushes farther north. QPF has increased, with around 0.50-1.00" from roughly the I-90 corridor south. Temperatures have trended slightly cooler though, especially on Fri with a cold air damming setup developing. So while there will be runoff from the rainfall, the amount of snowmelt is questionable at least through Fri. Winter Weather Advisories may eventually be needed, especially in parts of the S. Adirondacks and S. Greens due to ice accretion. KEY MESSAGE 3... There is high confidence in above normal temperatures develop starting this weekend, although the more substantial warming looks to occur early next week. First on Sat, a warm from is expected to lift northward across the region. Depending on timing, our area could get into a warm sector Sat afternoon allowing for temperatures to reach the 50s to near 60F. Temperatures aloft will be sufficiently warm (+10C to +13C at 850 mb), so the main question will be much how mixing can occur. Will stay close to NBM guidance for now. There could be some rain/showers around in the morning, but should end by afternoon in the warm sector. A cold front will then likely move through Sat evening with some additional showers. Even though it will be cooler aloft on Sun in wake of the front, better mixing should result in high still in the 50s to around 60F in most valley locations, although cooler 40s should occur in the mountains. Runoff will occur from snowmelt and some rainfall, with possible movement/break-up of ice on some area rivers. The more substantial warmup looks to occur early next week due to a developing/strengthening SW flow with ridging developing along the southeast CONUS coast. 850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV are forecast from the NAEFs. Assuming good mixing conditions, highs could exceed 60F in the Hudson Valley south of Albany on Mon and across much of the area on Tue. While snowmelt and ice breakup will likely accelerate on area rivers, precip chances look minimal at this time. Still, we will need to monitor for potential ice jam flooding in some typical trouble spots. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A storm system is located along a frontal boundary just south of the region and this system will be exiting off to the northeast for the overnight hours. Surface observations, web cam imagery and radar all show a wintry mix impacting all TAF sites at this time. While KGFL is seeing mainly snow, the other sites are now seeing mainly freezing rain, although some sleet will still be possible for KALB and KPSF based off model soundings. Within this precipitation, flying conditions are generally IFR, as visibility is mainly in the 1-2SM range, although brief fluctuations are expected. Ceilings will continue to be around 1000-2000 ft, although brief reductions below 1000 ft are also possible as well. The steadiest precip will start tapering to drizzle towards midnight, with all precip ending around 06z-07z or so. It will continue to remain IFR through that time with reduced visibility. However, even after the steady precip is over, flying conditions will stay IFR as lingering low level moisture and mist will keep ceilings around 1000 ft or less and visibility briefly lower as well. Through the entire overnight hours, surface winds will remain very light or calm for all sites. On Wednesday, no precip is expected, although the day will begin with low ceilings for all sites. There should be some improvement to MVFR during the morning hours, but bkn-ovc cigs around 1-2 kft will continue for the entire morning and even into the afternoon at some sites. It should finally clear out to VFR in the afternoon with clear skies expected to remain to all sites for late in the day, although KPSF and KGFL will take the longest to improve. Light northwest winds at 5 knots or less are expected for all sites. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...FZRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001- 013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ041- 049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...27