842 FXUS61 KALY 161110 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 710 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have added eastern Windham County Vermont and the Lake George Saratoga Region into the Wind Advisory for this afternoon through Tuesday morning. With a strong low level jet, cannot rule out some gusty winds even in valley areas for late today into tonight ahead of the strong cold front. Some gusty winds are also possible in the westerly flow in the wake of the boundary as well, which could result in some downed trees. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds over 45 mph are expected both ahead and behind a strong cold front across much of eastern New York and western New England for today through early Tuesday, which will result in some downed trees and power lines. 2) Periods of rain will allow for the possibility of minor flooding in urban and low lying areas, as well as along some rivers, across western New England for today into tonight. 3) As colder air returns to the region, temperatures will return back below freezing on Tuesday. Northern and high terrain areas will see precipitation end as snow, especially in lake effect areas, resulting in some slippery conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong storm system will be moving across the Great Lakes for today and lifting into southern Canada for this evening into tonight. A warm front will lift across the region this morning, allowing a much more milder air mass into the region. The storm's cold front will be approaching for this evening, and looks to pass through during the overnight hours. Ahead of this strong system, a powerful low level jet will be in place. Models suggests southerly winds at 850 hpa will be around 50 kts for much of the day and may reach as high as 75 kts right ahead of the storm's cold front. While there will plenty of wind aloft, there is some question about exactly how much of this will be able to mix down. There is a fairly stable layer in place for early this morning and periods of rain are also expected, which will keep it fairly stable. However, as the warm front lifts northward, this low level inversion will be weakening, although model soundings do suggest it never may fully erode for much of the area. The best chance for gusty winds may be across the highest terrain this afternoon into tonight, as well as areas where downsloping occurs, such as across the Taconics and western New England. Within breaks in the rainfall across these areas, as well as across the mountain peaks, some gusty south to southwest winds may reach 40-55 mph today into tonight. This could result in some downed trees and power lines, so a Wind Advisory is in effect for much of eastern New York and western New England. Have left out the western Adirondacks, Schoharie and Mohawk Valley, and mid Hudson Valley, as these areas aren't as susceptible to the south/southwest winds, but some of these areas could be needed to be added in time, as the low level jet is rather impressive. Just ahead of the storm's cold front, there will be a band of heavier convective showers and potential thunderstorms. This could also allow for some gusty winds to mix down, although the instability looks very limited across our area, with a better chance for this west/southwest of the area. 3km HRRR doesn't show much SBCABE in our area when the front is getting closer, as this is after sunset, so this looks to be a limited threat. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe storms (mainly southern and western areas), although the better threat for convective gusts look west of the area. Gusty winds are also possible for late tonight into Tuesday within the westerly flow behind the departing storm system. During daytime mixing on Tuesday, some westerly gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph, especially within the Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires. Best pressure gradient seems to be early in the day and this starts to relax by later Tuesday, so strong gusts this likely be in the morning to early afternoon hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... Periods of rain are expected for early this morning as the surface warm front lifts northward. Based on CAMS, the heaviest amounts look to be primarily across southeastern areas. Some additional showers are expected this afternoon and again just along/ahead of the cold front for this evening into tonight. While most areas will see around an inch of precip in total, the Catskills, Berkshires and NW CT may see 1 to 2.5 inches in total. The ground is somewhat saturated due to recent rainfall and snow melt, so there will be a lot of runoff. Some urban and poor drainage flooding is possible, especially this evening within the heavier bursts of rainfall. Also, some minor river flooding will be possible, mainly for the Housatonic Basin, based on the latest NERFC forecasts. MMEFS suggest the probability of widespread river flooding is fairly low at this time, so will continue to monitor, but won't expand the Flood Watch outside of the Berkshires and NW CT at this time. With a snowpack and some river ice still in place across the Adirondacks, some isolated issues are possible there as well, including for ice jams. KEY MESSAGE 3... There should be a rapid cooldown behind the front for late tonight into Tuesday. After a mild day on Monday, temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s for many areas on Tuesday, with sub- freezing temps across northern, western and high terrain areas. The rain may briefly end as wet snow or sleet as it ends tonight, but only minor accumulation (under an inch) is expected. The gusty winds should allow for most surfaces to dry out before becoming icy, but cannot rule out some slick spots overnight into Tuesday morning, especially across the Adirondacks. Some additional light snow due to lake effect is possible across the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with additional accumulation of an inch or two in spots. Overall, the threat for slippery conditions looks limited, but there will be a noticeable cool down for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z Tuesday...Scattered showers have started across the region this morning, forcing IFR to MVFR conditions at all terminals due to a combination of low ceiling heights and reduced visibility. Such conditions will prevail throughout the 12z TAF period as rounds of showers impact the terminals through the morning before stratiform rain moves in this afternoon. Rainfall rates will become moderate to locally heavy at times and embedded rumbles of thunder may occur later this afternoon. PROB30 groups were added to the TAFs to highlight the likely periods of heaviest rainfall, particularly within the pre- frontal rain band this evening but thunder was kept out as confidence continues to be low in its occurrence. Behind the pre-frontal rain band and the ultimate driving cold front, rain will likely change over to snow or sleet through the end of the 12z period, maintaining unideal flying conditions. Winds remain a significant concern with the 12z forecast period. A strong, southeasterly low level jet will drive a prolonged period of low level wind shear that could have operational impact on each TAF site. Surface winds will also prevail out of the south to southeast for much of the period, increasing this morning into this afternoon to 10 to 15 kt sustained with gusts up to 20 kt. This afternoon, sustained winds increase to 15 to 25 kt with gusts reaching as high as 40 kt. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ001-013. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ054-061-066. Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ041>043-048>053-058-063-083-084. MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MAZ001-025. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...12