244 FXUS61 KALY 160615 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 115 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Reduced snow chances close to and south of I-90 corridor through daybreak. Added some mention of spotty freezing rain/sleet for late tonight/Tuesday morning. Increased snowfall amounts for areas north of I-90 for Wednesday afternoon and night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Any light snow tapers off early this morning, with some slippery road/walking surfaces possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks, as well as close to the I-84 corridor. 2) Some snow showers/light wintry mix (including patchy freezing rain) possible late tonight into Tuesday morning. 3) Active pattern Wednesday through next weekend, with multiple systems tracking toward region resulting in periods of snow/wintry mix across the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Wave of low pressure tracks off mid Atlantic coast through early this morning, while shortwave tracks east across the remainder of the region. The interaction of some low level moisture from the southern system and the upper level dynamics from passing shortwave will lead to some spotty snow showers across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT through daybreak, with some flurries possibly extending south into portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region. Some minor accumulations of a coating to less than an inch could occur across the southern Adirondacks. In addition, some light snow could also occur close to I-84 in association with the coastal low tracking offshore. Any snow/snow showers should taper off shortly after daybreak, with gradual clearing this afternoon. High temps should reach the mid/upper 30s in most valley areas and lower/mid 30s for higher elevations this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2... Next shortwave tracks east from the Great Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday morning. Although overall moisture is limited, there should be enough to produce spotty snow showers. However, as mid level drying spreads eastward, forecast soundings suggest ice nuclei may decrease toward daybreak, resulting in some patchy freezing rain and/or sleet as well. This could result in some locally slippery travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute. Precipitation should taper off by mid/late Tuesday morning, with temps likely rising well above freezing for most areas by afternoon, with some lower 40s possible in valley areas. KEY MESSAGE 3... Active/unsettled weather expected periodically for Wednesday into next weekend. Initially, frontal system looks to slowly settle southward across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Moisture transported above this boundary looks to bring a band of light to moderate precipitation across at least portions of the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening. There remains a high degree of uncertainty exactly where the front sets up, along with placement of steadiest precipitation. On the north side of the frontal system, enough cold air looks to be in place for most of the precipitation to be snow, though a narrow zone of sleet/freezing rain can not be ruled out. Mainly rain is expected south of the frontal system, although may change to snow or a wintry mix before ending. Latest NBM suggests best chances for accumulating snow will be mainly north of I-90, where 24-hour probs for >4" of snowfall ending 7 AM Thursday are 30-60%, greatest across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain in southern VT. Similar probs are ~20% as far south as the I-90 corridor, suggesting that although an overall low probability, it still can not be ruled out that moderate snowfall amounts occur closer to the Capital Region. After this system, high pressure briefly noses southward into the region with seasonably chilly conditions for Thursday. However, another wave of low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring another period of snow and/or wintry mix to the region Friday-early Saturday, perhaps with some rain as well depending on the northward extent of low level warming. Yet another system could bring additional snow and/or a wintry mix/rain for Sunday as the active weather pattern continues. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Periods of light snow showers have low chances of passing through KGFL and KPOU through 8/9z that have been mentioned in PROB30 groups for visibility potential down to four to six miles. Confidence for MVFR ceilings is low as low end VFR conditions continue to be supported for this morning at all TAF sites. Otherwise, a vicinity light snow shower could occur through 9z and confidence is too low to include mention at KALB and KPSF in the TAFs as probabilities are very low for any visibility impacts. Light and variable winds continue through this morning at KALB and KGFL. Southeast winds between 5 and 10 knots continue at KPSF and KPOU through this morning. For this afternoon, winds increase to between 5 and 10 knots at KALB and become more southerly. For KPOU, winds decrease to light and variable for this afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...05