432 FXUS61 KALY 181145 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 645 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Overall snowfall amounts have trended downward slightly, with less snow expected across southern Adirondacks and Lake George region. The previous Winter Weather Advisory for N. Herkimer, Hamilton County and SE Warren County has been cancelled. Remainder of previous Winter Weather Advisory continues despite slightly lower snowfall amounts forecast, given potential impacts coinciding with a least a portion of the evening commute. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low pressure system will bring rain, snow and a wintry mix, including freezing rain, to portions of eastern New York and western New England today into tonight resulting in slippery travel conditions, including for the evening commute. 2) Another period of rain, snow and a wintry mix, including freezing rain, will lead to slippery travel conditions Friday into Friday night. 3) Potential coastal storm for late Sunday into Monday may produce impacts for the early week commute with snow or a wintry mix. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Overall trends have shifted southward and slightly less with overall QPF and resulting snowfall amounts with system for today into tonight. It appears that passing upper level shortwave across Quebec is providing increased upper level confluence and associated subsidence which will affect the northern edge of incoming precipitation shield, with only light snow expected across the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region. Closer to I-90, there should still be a period of steady light to moderate snow this evening and early tonight after an initial light mix of rain/snow develops this afternoon. However, even here, overall snow amounts look to be lower than previous guidance suggested, with generally 1-3 inches now forecast. It should be noted that mid level frontogenesis could still allow for some narrowly focuses bands of briefly heavier snow to develop near or south of I-90 this evening, and locally higher amounts could therefore occur. 00Z/HREF still suggests some 30-40% 24-hour probs for >4" snowfall ending 7 AM Thursday close to or slightly north of I-90, although this may partially be due to some older/lagged high-res guidance being incorporated into the HREF suite. Some patchy freezing rain will also be possible for areas south of I-90 this afternoon and evening, particularly higher terrain of the eastern Catskills and Berkshires. There could also be some patchy freezing rain extending into the Litchfield Hills tonight, and if confidence increases for this to occur, winter weather advisories may be expanded into Litchfield County. Although snowfall amounts have trended slightly downward, travel impacts from snow covered roadways and reduced visibility are still expected during at least a portion of the evening commute, therefore winter weather advisories will remain in effect with the exception of N. Herkimer, Hamilton and SE Warren counties where we have cancelled the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGE 2... Next system arrives Friday with snow/wintry mix eventually changing to plain rain in some areas south of I-90 by late afternoon. However, snow/wintry mix may linger into Friday evening farther north. In fact, latest 01Z NBM suggests fairly high 24-hour probabilities for >4" snowfall ending 7 AM Saturday across the SE Adirondacks including the Lake George/Saratoga region and southern VT (40-80%), with even some 30-40% chances for >7" in these same areas. In addition, higher terrain areas west and east of the Hudson River have 24-hour probs for >0.10" ice accretion ending 7 AM Saturday of 20-40%. Additional Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for much of the region for Friday into Friday night for this next system. KEY MESSAGE 3... Still the possibility of a coastal system bringing snow to portions of the region Sunday into early Monday, although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding overall storm track and resulting snowfall amounts and impacts to the region. Best 24-hour chances for >2" snowfall ending 7 AM Monday are 30-40% for areas near and south of I-90, and 20-30% farther north. It is possible that despite the main storm remaining relatively far south and east of the region, an inverted surface trough and passing upper level low still brings some accumulating snow to the region, especially areas south of I-90. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A variety of flying conditions start the TAF period due to mist/fog or low level clouds. Fog and mist continues this morning until the precipitation arrives this afternoon. For today, a wintry mix of rain/snow moves in between 16-19z from west to east for KALB and KPSF. For KGFL, confidence is low based on newest forecast guidance if snow reaches that far north to bring impactful MVFR visibilities so continued mention in PROB30 group for the light snow. KALB and KPSF have higher confidence for a wintry mix so continued to mention that in prevailing groups. Rain is in the forecast for KPOU with periods of moderate rainfall this afternoon for IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR conditions should gradually return for KPOU late tonight. Light and variable winds continue through the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063-082-084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...05