726 FXUS61 KALY 101103 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 703 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A minor forecast update was conducted this morning in order to account for a slower passage of the incoming cold frontal boundary that is currently being hinted at in the latest HiRes guidance. This could ultimately lead to additional coverage of showers this morning through this afternoon. The PoP, weather, and precipitation amount forecasts were therefore adjusted accordingly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a high probability for below normal temperatures tonight and Monday night. This will also lead to a high probability of widespread frost formation, likely triggering the need for Frost Advisory issuance where the growing season has commenced. 2) Confidence is high that, outside of frost posing a risk to vulnerable vegetation tonight and Monday night, the next seven days will not feature any impactful weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold advection regime will take hold of the region beginning tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage today. Weak and relatively broad troughing persisting aloft will help to reinforce a cooler than normal airmass tonight through Tuesday, with temperatures falling to 1-1.5 STDEVs below normal according to the latest NAEFS. Recently wet soils and prime radiational cooling conditions expected tonight and Monday night, courtesy of a building surface high, will drive high probabilities of widespread frost formation across eastern New York and western New England. Tonight, portions of the Mohawk Valley; Upper- Hudson Valley; Eastern Catskills; northern Taconics; and southern Greens are particularly at risk given the anticipation of lows in these areas to drop into the low to mid 30s. However, tomorrow night (Monday night), lows regionwide are anticipated to be in the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s. This will lead to additional areas of concern for frost formation including the Capital Region, Mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills. That said, it will be important to proactively take preventative actions over the next couple of days to protect vulnerable vegetation. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rather pleasant conditions are expected for Mother's Day today as temperatures reach near seasonable levels for the first time in several days. That said, the high temperature spread will be rather large given the slow passage of a cold front through the region throughout the day. Expect values in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s across higher terrain and mid 60s to low and pockets of mid 70s in the valleys. Unfortunately, today won't be completely dry as said cold frontal passage will drive some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two in the lower Mid- Hudson Valley and southwest New England. However, these showers will be light and highly scattered in nature given the overall limited forcing associated with the system driving the cold front through the region, so many will remain largely dry throughout the day. In fact, once this front pushes through the region this evening, we will have a couple of days worth of persistent, largely dry conditions as high pressure begins to take hold of the region tomorrow. A couple of isolated showers could develop on Monday as an upper-level shortwave rotates through the region, but with very limited moisture present and the increasing subsidence from the high, there may not be any rain that actually reaches the ground. There will be additional opportunities for rain and showers periodically after Tuesday, however. Once the surface high and weak attendant ridge aloft depart our region Tuesday night, large-scale troughing becomes dominant for the vast majority of the remainder of the work week. The gradual deepening and eastward shift of the primary trough will maintain an eastward- tracking surface low that will eject out of the Great Lakes and approach our region late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. This low then looks to be the source of periods of rain from Wednesday through Thursday as it slowly makes its way towards the Eastern Seaboard. That said, despite the potential prolonged periods of steady rain, QPF looks to be low enough (0.5-1.5" according to medium-range guidance) as to not pose any flooding concerns. And with high pressure looking to build in once again to start the next weekend, we can confidently say at this time that no significant impacts are anticipated over this coming week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z Monday...We start the day with IFR cigs at ALB, PSF, and GFL and IFR vis at POU but should trend towards VFR at GFL and ALB and MVFR at PSF and POU where low-level moisture will be more stubborn by 14 UTC. The true cold front and area of scattered showers will push south and eastward through the terminals this afternoon first reaching GFL and ALB 16 to 19 UTC before reaching PSF and POU 18 to 22 UTC. MVFR vis/cigs possible during any showers. Confidence has lowered for any thunderstorm given lingering clouds. All terminals trend to VFR late this afternoon behind the cold front and remain VFR through the end of the TAF period. Southerly winds 5-9kts this morning shift to the west- southwest this afternoon behind the cold front increasing to 8-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Winds turn light and variable by 00 UTC. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12/24 AVIATION...31