477 FXUS61 KALY 091024 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 624 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Patchy fog has been added for this morning for locations that have been observing fog. Winds have increased for a breezy day in store across eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures have been adjusted for Wednesday into Thursday associated with a strong cold front to move through. Probability of precipitation for Wednesday has been adjusted to account for drier conditions across the southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills (slower arrival time of the rain). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temps is expected into midweek for the entire forecast area. The anomalous warmth along with some rainfall during the middle of the week, will aid in snow melt, potential river rises, and a subsequent threat of ice jams and minor flooding. 2)A strong storm system is expected to bring gusty winds for Wednesday night into Thursday. As the storm passes through the region, rapidly dropping temperatures and rain changing to snow will be threats for the entire area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mild temperatures are expected to start the week. The combination of rising heights, warming temps aloft and a west- southwest flow will result in high temperatures well above normal for valley areas for today through Wednesday. Enough clearing will have finally occurred to allow for a mostly sunny day on Monday and Tuesday, although more clouds are expected by Wednesday thanks to next approaching storm system. Most valley areas will be in the mid 60s each day, with some valley areas as warm as the low 70s on Tuesday afternoon. Even high terrain areas will be rather mild with highs well into the 50s to low 60s. Breezy conditions are in store today and again on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system, with mainly light winds for Tuesday. As a result of the warming temperatures and the southerly breeze, snow melt will be occurring each day. The melt will slow down for tonight with overnight temps falling into the 30s, but milder air is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday night. Some runoff has already been seen on area river hydrographs, especially in the Catskills and Schoharie basins. Northern basins have seen the snowpack starting to compress as meltwater is being absorbed into the pack, although even northern areas will see runoff this week as the snowpack temperatures continues to rise. Although little rainfall is expected through Wednesday, the runoff from snowmelt will allow for some river rises. It may be enough for some ice movement too, but a lot of river ice will start to rot and melt in place thanks to the sunshine and mild temperatures. Some isolated ice jams and minor flooding due to snowmelt is possible for a few smaller basins early in the week, but widespread flooding is not expected through Wednesday. For the middle of the week, a passing storm system will bring more wind and some rainfall. Depending on how much precip occurs, some hydro issues are possible for late Wednesday into Thursday, as the rainfall combines with snowmelt and river ice to allow for some minor river flooding. At this point, the MMEFS suggest some minor flooding could be an issue of the Housatonic River by later this week, as perhaps the Sacandaga River. Based on current flows, parts of the Schoharie and Mohawk could have some isolated issues later this week as well if enough precip occurs. Even outside of the rivers, some ponding can be expected in urban and low lying areas thanks to the rain, snow melt and saturated ground conditions. Colder weather and frozen precip is expected later this week, which could slow down the snow melt and threat for hydro concerns. KEY MESSAGE 2... Morning Update: Precipitation in the southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills could arrive later Wednesday night versus during Wednesday afternoon. Probability of precipitation has been lowered in these locations to less than 30 percent for the daytime Wednesday. The latest forecast supports a faster progression of the storm system, with precipitation arriving north and west of Albany first during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Ensemble forecast model guidances are also hinting at low chances for non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday late afternoon and early evening for north and west of Albany for a few rumbles of thunder. There is fluctuation with arrival time for precipitation for locations south and east of Albany, so we'll continue to monitor the trends and when rain could arrive. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning have been adjusted to account for when the cold front could move through. By Thursday morning from the Hudson River Valley and locations east, temperatures could range between 40 and 55 degrees before the front moves through. Temperatures are still on track to fall during the daytime Thursday into the 20s and 30s. The rest of the forecast is still on track, so no other changes were needed and more details on winds and impacts can be read below from the previous discussion. Previous Discussion: A Storm system will be impacting the region between Wednesday and Thursday with a strong frontal boundary, allowing for temps to return closer to normal. Ahead of the front, an increasing pressure gradient will be allow for gusty southerly winds for Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with some gusts exceeding 25 mph at times. A band of rain showers is expected to accompany the front passage, which at this point, looks to occur on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Behind the front, winds will be switching and become gusty once again, but this time from the west to northwest for during the day on Thursday. Some gusts may 30 mph, especially in the high terrain and channeled valley areas. As temperatures rapidly cool behind the front, the rain may end as some wet snow, especially for northern and high terrain areas, although models suggest snowfall amounts look fairly minor at this time. Temps will be falling below freezing Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, so any remaining wet surfaces could become slick if winds don't dry them out first. Behind the storm system, temps look to closer to normal to end out the week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z/Tuesday, any lingering fog/low clouds should lift by 13Z-14Z/Mon. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through late this evening. Additional patchy ground fog could develop at KPSF and KGFL after 06Z/Tue with periods of IFR Vsbys possible. Light/variable winds early this morning will become south to southwest and increase to 8-12 KT with some gusts up to 20-25 KT by this afternoon, with strongest/most persistent gusts at KALB and KGFL. South to southwest winds will decrease to 4-8 KT toward and after sunset and will become light/variable later tonight. Low level wind shear will be possible tonight at KGFL and KPSF, as surface winds decrease to under 5 KT while winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the southwest to west at 30-35 KT. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27/05 AVIATION...24