872 FXUS61 KALY 050610 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 210 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A low pressure system and cold front will bring a period of rain and a possible thunderstorm into this afternoon. 2) Brisk and cool weather returns early this week with a clipper system bringing snow showers or a rain/snow mix Monday night into Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations could occur, especially across the higher elevations. 3) Milder weather returns for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of rain will cross the area through the early afternoon hours as a cold front crosses the region. Most areas will see a 3 to 5 hour period of rain which will begin between 4-8am for areas mainly west of the Hudson Valley and from 8am to noon from the Hudson Valley and points east. Some weak elevated instability (100- 200 J/kg) could be in place for a rumble of thunder across northwestern Connecticut but will not lead to any severe weather. Overall QPF amounts look to mainly range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches which will prevent widespread hydrologic impacts. However, this rain will allow for the West Canada Creek at Hinckley to continue to hover near or just above minor flood stage. Colder air filters into the area this afternoon through tonight as an upper trough builds into the region. A lake effect and upslope response will bring isolated to scattered mixed rain and snow showers becoming all snow, mainly for areas west of the Hudson Valley and also across the southern Greens. Light accumulations of a coating to an inch could occur across the Adirondacks by Monday morning with little or no accumulation elsewhere. Low temperatures tonight fall back into the 20s and 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Brisk and cool weather continues early this week as upper level troughing persists over the area. High temperatures will only reach the 30s and 40s for most areas on Monday and Tuesday. A continued lake effect and upslope response will lead to some isolated to scattered snow showers on Monday, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley. A potent upper level shortwave passing through the area Monday night into Tuesday looks to bring a more widespread coverage of snow showers or rain/snow mix. Some coatings to locally 1 inch of snow accumulation could occur for parts of the area. While most of the accumulation will likely occur on non paved surfaces, some localized slick spots could occur on some area roadways Tuesday morning, especially across higher elevations. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind this clipper, high pressure builds over the area on Wednesday with the return of sunshine and near normal temperatures. Temperatures then trend above normal for late next week as the high shifts to the east and south to southwesterly flow resumes. Some showers could return to parts of the area by the end of next week pending the location of an approaching frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday... MVFR conditions prevail across the region this morning as plenty of low-level moisture ahead of a cold front have forced ceilings to around 1-3 kft. Rain associated with the incoming cold front still remains well to the west of any terminals, closely tied to the cold front, but should arrive by about 12z at GFL. The area of rain will gradually track south and east through the rest of the region, allowing for periods of rain across all terminals throughout the morning and into the afternoon. A few light showers ahead of the primary shield may occur at GFL and ALB, but conditions should not be altered by these. Conversely, IFR conditions may occur ahead of the rain shield at KPOU and KPSF where enhanced low-level moisture shown on forecast soundings indicates ceilings may fall to 400-900 ft. With decreasing winds at both of these sites, visibility will also likely be impacted courtesy of fog formation. With the rain later this morning into this afternoon, MVFR conditions will largely stand true at GFL and ALB outside of brief periods of potential moderate rainfall that could force ceilings into IFR thresholds. POU and PSF will likely remain in the IFR category with persistent low ceilings, but most terminals should maintain MVFR visibility. Behind the front and its associated area of rain, dry air will filter into the region to allow gradual improvements back to the VFR category by the end of the period. South to southeasterly winds to start will gradually back to the west and ultimately the northwest with the passage of the front. Sustained speeds to start will range from about 10 to 15 kt, dropping below or just around 10 kt before and with the main rain band. However, the passage of the front will increase wind speeds this afternoon into this evening. Sustained speeds will reach 10 to 15 kt with gusts of 15 to 25 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...12