539 FXUS61 KALY 240657 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 157 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A clipper low brings a widespread light snowfall late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning to eastern NY and western New England. The systems cold front will bring scattered snow showers and isolated squalls Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the western Adirondacks Tue Night through Wed night for moderate amounts of snowfall. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A clipper type low is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the commute. The systems cold front may bring isolated snow squalls north and west of the Capital Region for the Wednesday evening commute. 2) Another storm system may potentially bring light amounts of accumulating snow Thu night into Fri morning south of I-90. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold and brisk conditions will begin the day with below normal temps for late Feb, as the powerful Nor'easter moves into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from southeast Ontario over upstate NY late in the day. The sfc pressure gradient will weaken in the late afternoon and early evening with the anticyclone settling in. Temps today will run below normal by close to 15 degrees with highs in the lower to mid 20s in the valleys with a few upper 20s in the Mid Hudson Valley, and teens over the higher terrain. Wind chills will be in the single digits to below zero over the higher terrain at times with the gusty west to northwest winds 20-30 mph. The sfc high will only briefly be in control, as a clipper type low will approach from the northern Great Lakes Region. The low to mid level warm advection will increase ahead of the warm front to the system towards midnight. Light snow will break out from the west/southwest to the north/northeast across the forecast area. Some orographic enhancement will occur off the southwest Adirondacks in northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties for 2-4" of snow to occur Tue night through Wed morning. Most of the rest of the forecast area will receive 0.5-2" of snowfall with some slightly higher amounts over the eastern Catskills, southern Greens, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills in the 1-3" range. The snowfall will likely impact the morning commute, so some slick spots or snow covered roads are likely. We issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the western Dacks based on collab with WFO BGM and BUF and the potential for 3-7" of snow not only with the isentropic lift with the warm front, but the clipper and its cold front moving through during the afternoon and early evening. The clipper and the mid/upper level short-wave moves across southern Quebec during the day, and the cold front approaches for the afternoon. After lows in the single digits and lower/mid teens, expect temps to rise into the mid/upper 30s in the valleys and 20s to lower 30s over the higher terrain warm sector. Some of the CAMs continue to show some isolated to widely scattered snow showers/snow squalls develop ahead of the front for the afternoon. The greatest risk would be north and west of the Capital Region based on the timing, and they may overlap with the evening commute. The boundary layer does warm for rain changing to snow in the Hudson River Valley in the early evening. Steep low to mid level lapse rates will be in place based on the model soundings, and the snow squall parameter does increase. The question will be if we mix strong/gusty winds down and how fast the boundary layer cools for a widespread snow squall threat. For now, the greatest risk looks to be north and west of the Tri Cities. The cold front moves through Wed night. A brief lake effect connection will occur before diminishing, as any organized band shifts southward and weakens quickly. We kept the Winter Wx Advisory out until 12Z/Thu. Total snow accumulations for the long duration event for the northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties will be 3-7" based on the latest NBM QPF and snow to liquid ratios. Lows in the post frontal cold advection fall back to the mid teens to lower 20s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The mid and upper level flow remains quasi-zonal for Thu. A quick moving open wave moving across the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic States during the day which may bring some light snow to locations south of I-90 Thu night into Fri morning. The majority of the medium range guidance and ensembles are south of the region for the track. The NBM still supports chance probabilities for an inch or so of snow from the Capital District southward which could impact the Fri morning commute. The trends for this weak system on its track and evolution, as well as light snow amounts will continue to be monitored over the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exception will be at KPSF, where some occasional MVFR cigs may occur overnight and then expected to develop more substantially later this morning due to NW upslope flow. Otherwise, just SCT-BKN mid level clouds around today, which will thicken later this evening well ahead of a clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes. Winds will be west-northwest around 7-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt developing, especially be later this morning. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Friday to Saturday: No Operational Impact. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...07