915 FXUS61 KALY 231029 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 629 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased PoPs for snow showers late this morning into early this afternoon Capital District south and again late this afternoon into early evening from the Hudson Valley east. Low pressure system/cold front Thursday night looks stronger, with likely showers potentially ending as a brief period of snow in some (mainly high elevations spots) before ending Friday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A brief light wintry mix is expected south of the Capital District early this morning, which could result in some slippery spots. Additional snow showers late this morning through early this evening may briefly reduce visibility, with some slippery travel east of the Hudson Valley. 2) A warm front brings scattered showers Wednesday night, followed by more widespread showers associated with a low pressure system and cold front Thursday night, which could end as a brief period of snow leading to slippery travel in some areas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Radar showing precip shield has set up just south of the Capital District as of 230 AM, while obs indicate colder air channeling south down the Hudson Valley. Tempertures are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s across southern portions of the mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. However, temperatures will continue to gradually drop early this morning with northerly winds persisting as low pressure tracks east across the mid Atlantic region. So while mainly rain is occurring, the rain will likely mix with sleet and/or snow in the pre-dawn hours in these areas. A few pockets of freezing rain may even occur mainly in the E. Catskills. Will continue to monitor trends for possible Special Weather Statement issuance if needed for slippery travel. The first precip shield north of the wave of low pressure should move east out of the area by around 7-8 AM. Then, as the leading edge of the upper level trough moves in with height falls beginning, rain/snow showers expected to re-develop although coverage should be more scattered. Still, this could result in some slippery spots, especially across higher terrain areas east of the Hudson Valley where snow is favored. As the upper trough moves overhead later this afternoon and the surface wave tracks east of the 40/70 benchmark, some Mohawk-Hudson convergence results in additional scattered snow showers especially in and around the greater Capital District. With temperatures mainly in the mid 30s, impacts on roads should be minimal, with a coating of snow accumulation on non-paved surfaces. However, briefly reduced visibility could be a nuisance during the P.M. commute. KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier weather is expected tonight through Wed, with the next chance for scattered light showers arriving Wed night associated with a warm front lifting north across the area. We could get into a brief warm-sector on Thu, with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in most valley locations. The warmup will be short-lived though, as a wave of low pressure and its associated cold front are forecast to push southeast across the area Thu night. This will bring a better likelihood of more widespread showers. Guidance has started to trend stronger with this system, which would also result in greater QPF. Latest NBM 24-hr probs for > 0.25" QPF are 40-60% ending 8 AM Fri. There is considerable spread in the ensemble guidance regarding the track of the wave. Depending on how quickly colder air filters in with potential for lingering moisture along the wave/front, precip could end as a brief period of snow in some spots(mainly higher terrain). && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z/Tue...Northerly winds continue to funnel cold air southward this morning in the wake of an exiting boundary as rain continues to slowly push south and east of POU/PSF. Patchy showers/mist may linger at PSF and POU through 15 UTC before yet another area of precipitation develops over these sites. Still uncertain regarding the areal coverage and duration of this second area of precipitation so only included in PROB30 groups from 14 to 18 UTC. Given colder air in place, show rain/snow mix and MVFR vis with IFR/MVFR cigs continuing. Otherwise, MVFR cigs continue at ALB and GFL through this morning. Any steady precipitation that redevelops should diminish by midday but there is increasing confidence in additional snow showers developing this afternoon focused along the Hudson River and track south and eastward between 18 and 01 UTC. All terminals look to be impacted with the highest confidence at GFL and ALB where we include TEMPO groups for IFR vis/cigs from snow showers. Milder temperatures at POU should support mainly rain showers and MVFR flying conditions. Snow showers may weaken as they approach PSF but still show IFR vis/cigs in a TEMPO group for late this afternoon/early evening. By 01 - 03 UTC, snow showers exit from west to east with flying conditions improving back to VFR at GFL/ALB/POU. MVFR cigs linger at PSF through 08-09 UTC before improving to VFR. Otherwise, northerly winds remain sustained 6-12kts through the TAF period with occasional gusts to 15-25kts. Outlook... Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...31