893 FXUS61 KALY 132317 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 717 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor update early this evening to account for low topped convective showers that have developed along a wind shift boundary south of Albany. Will mention widely scattered showers in this area until just after sunset when coverage should wane considerably. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening threaten to bring strong to locally damaging wind gusts that could lead to isolated downed trees and/or power lines, power outages, and property damage. 2. The threat for impactful weather is low from Wednesday through the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Tomorrow will bring the potential for isolated to highly scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms as the cold front approaches and stalls across or just north of our northern zones. Still within the warm sector of the aforementioned low, southerly to southwesterly flow will force continued moisture and warm air advection to help initiate and then maintain destabilization. Though upper-level forcing for ascent is weak, there is an embedded shortwave within the zonal flow aloft that will send a weak vorticity maximum through the region tomorrow afternoon. This should help to increase upward ascent as weak surface waves propagate off the boundary. Maximum SBCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg and isolated, local maximums up to 1500 J/kg will align with steepening mid-level lapse rates and high DCAPE to threaten strong to locally damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard resulting from any severe thunderstorms. This is ultimately what drove the Marginal Risk for severe weather across much of our area from SPC. At this point, the CAMs are still highly varied in their depictions of the coverage of severe storms given the lack of a distinct frontal passage in the lower levels and upper trough aloft. That said, the orientation of the 1 and 6 km shear vectors indicate a cellular storm mode to start with a potential merging or clustering of cells as the event draws onward. SPC HREF ensemble paintball plots seem to indicate the most agreement in individual cells occurring across portions of the Hudson Valley with potential cluster or borderline linear segments developing over the Southern Adirondacks and possibly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England areas. The HRRR seems to be the most representative of this solution at this time so we erred on that element of guidance when developing the forecast. That said, potentially expansive cloud cover amid a moist environment could be a limiting factor to storms becoming severe tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures are anticipated throughout much of the remainder of the week and into the weekend with additional rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as weak shortwaves pulse along the northern periphery of a building ridge in the south. A Marginal Risk for severe weather was just introduced for portions of the Eastern Catskills for Wednesday where an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. However, for the most part, the overall probability of impactful weather Wednesday through the weekend is low given the low severe weather threat and the low amount of rainfall that will not pose any hydro concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail this evening. There are widely scattered -SHRA in the KPSF to KPOU corridor, but will not result in conditions lowering so will mention a VCSH at these sites. With an increase in low level moisture, there is the potential for fog at KGFL late tonight if sufficient clearing can develop. Will mention MVFR vsby for now with low confidence in IFR. Upslope clouds may develop at KPSF by around 06z, with cigs expected to be at MVFR levels. These lower clouds should dissipate Tuesday morning. SHRA/TSRA will become likely Tuesday afternoon associated with a frontal system. There is low confidence in timing/coverage as of now, so will mention PROB30 for TSRA with gusty winds and potential IFR/MVFR conditions. Winds will initially be westerly around 5-12 kt early this evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt tonight. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023) Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...07