199 FXUS61 KALY 121101 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 701 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clearing skies and decreasing winds will result in frost and freeze conditions for the higher terrain and hill towns (outside of the southern Adirondacks) of eastern NY and western New England through early this morning. Such conditions which may impact sensitive vegetation. 2) Increasing confidence for periods of rain and some thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday with showers potentially lingering into Friday. While locally heavy rain can result in poor drainage and urbanized flooding, widespread flooding is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Shortwave trough continues to swing from eastern NY into New England tonight with lingering stratus clouds still tracking through much of eastern NY and western New England as of 1230AM. Between the clouds and lingering light breeze, temperatures remain rather mild in the 40s except in the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley which is cooler in the 30s. We still expect skies to clear out and winds to weaken near/shortly after 2 AM thanks to increasing subsidence in the wake of this trough. However, given we will only have a limited window where temperatures can quickly fall below freezing before the sun rises, confidence has decreased that all zones in frost advisories and freeze warnings will verify. If trends suggest temperatures will not support such conditions, we may need to cancel some zones early (especially the CT River Valley in southern VT which is still in the mid-40s). Highest confidence for freeze/frost conditions remains in areas north and west of the Capital District where skies should clear earliest supporting radiational cooling. Impacts to sensitive outdoor vegetation continue where frost and/or freeze conditions occur. KEY MESSAGE 2... After a beautiful spring day today, confidence continues to increase in periods of widespread rain Wednesday into Thursday as a shortwave trough closes off and slowly pushes through the Northeast. Chances for showers increase late Tues night into Wed morning as isentropic lift ahead of a warm front allows showers to overspread from west to east across eastern NY and western New England. As is typical with strengthening southwest winds in warm air advection regimes, the steadiest rain looks focused across areas north of I-90 and in the eastern Catskills with upslope enhancements along the south facing slopes of the southern Adirondacks and eastern Catskills. Downsloping off the Catskills should result in lighter rainfall in the Capital District. While Wednesday will likely not be a complete washout, there will likely be more periods of wet weather than dry time, especially in the southwest Adirondacks. Then, a strengthening shortwave at the base of a parent trough approaching from the Great Lakes will support additional forcing and help strengthen southerly winds eliciting a moisture flux from the western Atlantic into the Northeast Wed night. With a good consensus that the parent trough closes off just to our west, there is increasing confidence that low and mid-level convergence on its eastern flank will support a corridor of steady/moderate rainfall into Thursday. Latest trends suggest that the rainfall axis may set-up mainly along or just east of the Hudson River into western New England. Even still, the highest moisture anomalies per the NAEFS, GEFS and ENS remain well to our east with PWAT amounts over our area only around 1" and warm cloud depths under 10kft. All of these factors help decrease concerns for widespread flooding. However, the moisture convergence combined with steeper lapses rates under the closed low will likely support weak instability Wed night into Thursday. Any convection can result in locally heavy rainfall and if moderate/heavy rain can pivot or persist, localized flooding in poor drainage or urban areas can occur. As the aforementioned shortwave at the base of the trough strengthens into Thurs, guidance continues to show a secondary low developing along the incoming cold front. There remain some discrepancies among the guidance when and where this shortwave intensifies which will determine the track of the secondary low. Should the shortwave end up being stronger and take on an negative tilt, the secondary low would develop earlier and have a higher chance of impacting eastern NY/western New England on Thursday. If it ends up being weaker (which is the general trend), the low would likely escape to our east. Unsettled conditions continue into Friday as the parent trough becomes vertically stacked and slows down with wrap around moisture keeping chances for showers in the forecast into Friday. With potentially three days of wet weather, probabilistic guidance indicates high confidence for at least 0.75" of rain regionwide over the 72hr period 8AM Wed to 8AM SAT with moderate to high confidence in over 1 inch of rain for areas along and east of the Hudson River into western New England. 75th percentile rainfall amounts during this window provide a reasonable high end amount and with areas along and east of the Hudson River only ranging 1.75" to 2.25", that suggests that widespread flooding is unlikely. However, as stated earlier, poor drainage or urbanized flooding is still possible, especially where the moderate to locally heavy rain axis can persist/pivot on Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 12z/Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon with mainly clear skies across the region to start the morning as high pressure builds into the area. Mostly mid and high level clouds begin to move back in by late afternoon followed by low clouds with ceilings around 5,000 ft after sunset becoming overcast by about 02z- 04z. Rain showers overspreading from the northwest arrive early tomorrow morning by 08-10z ahead of a warm front with the steadiest showers north of KALB. While ceilings do lower with the showers, model guidance at this time suggests that KALB, KPSF, and KPOU should remain in VFR conditions at least through this TAF period however KGFL has the greatest chance to see ceilings and visibility lower to MVFR after 10z due to upsloping. Winds remain light and variable less than 5 kt through this morning before increasing to 5-10 kt from the northwest around noon. A few gusts around 15 kt are possible at KALB and KPSF in the afternoon. Winds then taper off into the evening hours and become calm overnight. Winds then shift out of the southeast with speeds 3-6 kt tomorrow morning as the frontal system approaches. Outlook... Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ039>041-043- 048-051-054-061-082>084. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ038-047-058- 063. MA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ001-025. VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ015. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...53