478 FXUS61 KALY 031058 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 658 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Flooding along the West Canada Creek continues to recede and should fall below flood stage by this afternoon. 2) A pair of low pressure systems will bring periods of rain and a few thunderstorms today through this weekend before cooler weather returns for early next week along with mixed rain and snow showers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Flood waters continue to recede with the West Canada Creek at Hinckley and Kast Bridge now falling into minor flood stage early this morning. All other flood warnings have been cancelled. Despite some additional showers and possibly a rumble of thunder today, these rivers should continue to recede and are forecast to fall below flood stage by this afternoon. Some light rain showers are expected on Saturday before a period of rain crosses the area on Sunday. Pending on how much rain occurs on Sunday, some river rises could occur once again but overall confidence on additional minor river flooding is very low at this time. Trends will be monitored over the next couple of days. For the latest river forecasts, visit www.water.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of low pressure systems will bring occasional unsettled weather today through the weekend. A warm front will lift northward across the area this morning which will allow for temperatures to rise into the 60s to near 70 which is around 25 degrees higher than yesterday. Some showers will pass through the area, mainly from the Capital District and points north and west. There could be an isolated rumble of thunder as well with some weak elevated instability present. Additional showers are possible this evening as the system's cold front crosses. This front will stall near the I-80 corridor by tomorrow morning but then lift back northward as a warm front tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night with a few additional rain showers. The next system and cold front crosses the area on Sunday with a more widespread period of rain especially during the morning and early afternoon hours. In the wake of Sunday's system, a period of cooler weather arrives to start next week. High temperatures will only reach the 30s and 40s on Monday and Tuesday. A couple of shortwaves passing through the main upper level trough could allow for some mixed rain and snow showers at times. High pressure then passes overhead next Wednesday and then tracks to the east by the end of next week allowing for temperatures to rebound back to above normal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12z Saturday...IFR to MVFR conditions prevail across the region courtesy of a widespread, low-level stratus deck driven by an approaching frontal system. Such conditions will persist through this morning as a warm front lifts through the region. An initial batch of showers pushing through the region currently, should avoid most terminals, except GFL and possibly ALB but light rainfall rates shouldn't do much to worsen already unideal flying conditions. Once the warm front lifts through the region into this afternoon, some brief clearing looks to occur such that conditions will briefly improve to VFR. However, with the advance of the cold front associated with this system, ceilings will lower again, likely only to MVFR this time, as moisture increases again and another batch of showers moves through. Confidence is fairly low in the timing and actual impact of showers, as HiRes guidance is fairly varied in their solutions. However, PROB30s were added late this afternoon into late this evening to account for the best chance of showers to occur. Winds throughout the period will primarily prevail out of the south to southwest until the last 4-6 hours of the period when direction shifts to the west to northwest at the passage of the cold front. Sustained speeds will be light this morning but gradually increase to 10-16 kt this afternoon with gusts of 20-30kt particularly at ALB and PSF. Outlook... Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Definite SHRA...RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...12/23