991 FXUS61 KALY 102015 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 415 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a Flood Watch for the southwest Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and western Mohawk Valley from 2pm Wednesday to 2pm Thursday for the combination of snowmelt through Wednesday and widespread rainfall Wednesday into Wednesday night resulting in increased runoff into area rivers and streams. Given ice still on rivers, increased flow may help break-up ice and result in ice jam related flooding. Temperatures for tomorrow have decreased a bit near and north of I-90 given increased confidence for a backdoor cold front to stall nearby, leading to cold air damming. Increased winds for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. Probabilities for wind gusts 40mph or higher between 2AM Thurs to 2AM Fri has increased to 30 to 70% with locally higher probabilities in the Rensselaer Plateau into western MA between 70 and 80%. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a medium chance for minor river flooding in the southwest Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and western Mohawk Valley as a result of above normal temperatures through tomorrow that will aid in snow melt and river rises. The increased flow in rivers will also help break-up ice, potentially leading to ice jam related flooding. 2) A strong storm system tomorrow into early Thursday morning will lead to gusty winds, widespread rainfall, and a few non- severe thunderstorms. There is a 30 to 70% chance for wind gusts to reach or exceed 40mph between 2 PM Wednesday and 2PM Thursday which can blow around any unsecured outdoor objects and lead to downed tree branches. 3) Colder temperatures return for the end of this week, with bitterly cold overnight temperatures returning next week. There is low to medium chance for slippery travel Friday night from a clipper disturbance leading to low snow accumulations in the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm temperatures through tomorrow will lead to considerable snowmelt. In fact, record high temperatures for the calendar day (March 10) at Albany, Glens Falls, and Poughkeepsie have been broken. See climate section for details. The NOHRSC maps and ground truth observations from CoCoRaHS and Cooperative Weather Observer this morning and NYS Mesonet sites showing 10 to 25 inches in the southwest Adirondacks with 6 to 12 inches still in the foothills and in southern Vermont, western MA, and parts of Litchfield County, CT. Elsewhere, snow has melted except in lingering snow piles or shaded areas. Latest sfc observations show a warm front stalled in the North Country is slowing sagging back southward with it likely stalling in the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley tonight. As additional weak shortwaves aloft move along this boundary tonight, a few showers (even a potential rumble of thunder) will likely develop along this front but overall rainfall amounts will remain low between 0.10 to 0.25". The runoff from snowmelt combined with light rainfall tonight will allow for some river rises and may be enough for some ice movement with isolated ice jams and minor street flooding not completely ruled out through tomorrow but widespread flooding is not expected. The backdoor front will remain stalled near I-90 through the day tomorrow with north to northeast winds north of this front advecting in a cooler air mass in comparison to temperatures today (Tuesday). Forecast soundings show a strong low-level inversion that will make it difficult for temperatures to rise out of the 40s and 50s tomorrow morning. This plus cloudy skies will slow down snow melt. However, the front finally lifts north tomorrow afternoon from south to north with winds shifting to the southeast which will slowly erode the low- level inversion. Temperatures will slowly warm into the 50s and 60s tomorrow afternoon (warmest in valley areas but still cool in the 40s in southern VT due to cold air damming) with southeast winds becoming breezy, reaching 25 - 30mph. The combination of warmer air and breezy winds will enhance snowmelt for the second half of the day, especially as dew points climb into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, resulting in height falls across the Northeast. Strong southwest winds aloft ahead of the trough will direct a moisture plume with PWATS 1 - 1.5" into the Northeast through tomorrow night. Expected areas of showers to increase in coverage tomorrow afternoon reaching the southwest Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and Upper Hudson Valley. With lapse rates aloft in the 850 - 500 hPa layer steepening to 6 - 6.5C/km, elevated instability may support an isolated rumble of thunder but not expecting widespread storms. Otherwise, the falling heights and increased moisture transport will support areas of rain continuing to overspread the region tomorrow night with rain tracking south and east overnight as the cold front sweeps through the region. Locally moderate rainfall rates are possible immediately ahead of the front given the enhanced moisture plume with rainfall rates decreasing behind the boundary. Similar to the previous forecast, probabilistic guidance continues to show the highest rainfall amounts favored mainly north/west of the Capital District with the 25th and 75th percentile values ranging from 0.50 to 1.50" with lower amounts in the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England as the front outruns the strongest forcing. Rainfall amounts here generally range between 0.10 and 0.30" in the 25th to 75th percentile. Most of the rain exit into New England by early Thursday. Given the expected rainfall amounts plus snow melt, the latest forecast from the Northeast River Forecast Center show a few river forecast points reach minor flood stage Wed night or Thursday. Specifically, flooding is expected along the West Canada Creek, the Mohawk Valley and Sacandaga River. It will be close for points within the Upper Hudson River Basin with North Creek, Hinckley and Fort Edward expected to rise above action stage. The latest MMEFS shows nearly 2 to 3 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) melting out of the snowpack within these river basin in the Adirondacks and this will be a crucial part of the forecast. Should less snow melt out, flooding may be less likely and vise versa. How river ice melts/rots and moves in response to increased flow will also be something to monitor as that can lead to localized ice jam flooding but that is difficult to predict far in advance. Given expected river rises and potential for ice jam flooding, we issued a flood watch from 18 UTC Wed to 18 UTC Thurs for the southwest Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and Upper Hudson Valley. Winds in the wake of the front late Wed night into early Thursday turn quite gusty given strong cold air advection. Wind sharply shift to the west behind the front with gusts reaching 30 to 45mph with probabilistic guidance showing 30 to 70% chance for gusts to exceed 40mph 2AM Thurs to 2AM Fri. This can blow around an unsecured outdoor objects. It will feel much colder on Thursday with temperatures reaching their highest point of the day Wed night before tumbling into the 20s and 30s (40s mid- Hudson Valley) by morning. KEY MESSAGE 3... Seasonably cool temperatures expected Thursday night into Friday with a clipper disturbance looking likely for Friday afternoon into Friday night. Given cooler temperatures, latest forecast shows a rain/snow mix in valley areas with low amounts of snow accumulations in the southern Adirondacks (especially along southern facing slopes) and Upper Hudson Valley. This may lead to slippery travel Friday night. Ensemble and deterministic forecast model guidances are in excellent agreement for bitterly cold morning temperatures to return to eastern New York and western New England beginning Tuesday morning. Lows could range in the single digits across the high terrain locations to teens and low 20s in valley locations. High temperatures will struggle Tuesday to reach above freezing, with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Wednesday morning is looking to be the start of the coldest day this month with lows in the single digits and teens. Don't put away those winter jackets, hats, and gloves just yet as winter-like conditions continue next week. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z/Wed...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening with some mid level clouds around with bases above 5000 feet. A nearby frontal bounday could bring some isolated to widely scattered showers and lower cigs to KALB/KGFL between 00-06z/Wed with MVFR conditions developing. KPOU should remain VFR through the night. Patchy fog could develop at KPSF after 06z/Wed. Additional rain showers are possible after 12z/Wed at all sites and have introduced a PROB30 for all sites for possible MVFR vsbys and IFR/MVFR cigs. Outside of showers, mixed MVFR/VFR conditions are likely Wednesday morning. South to southwesterly winds around 10 kt this afternoon will become light out of the north or calm tonight. Wind will then become south to southeasterly Wednesday morning at 5-10 kt with some higher gusts possible especially at KALB. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. && .CLIMATE... Record High for today (March 10) Albany, NY: 72 degrees set in 1977 Glens Falls, NY: 65 degrees in 2016 Poughkeepsie, NY: 73 degrees in 2016 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for NYZ032-033-038-039-041>043-082-083. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/05 AVIATION...33 CLIMATE...31