634 FXUS61 KALY 090557 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 157 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted cloud cover and dewpoints for this afternoon to match trends in observations and satellite imagery. While a few light rain showers are possible over the next few hours, dewpoints have still been running lower than forecasted values from the NBM. Will keep skies mostly cloudy for next few hours with isolated to scattered showers, but allow for more clearing by this evening. With clearing skies, some patchy/areas of frost expected for the Upper Hudson Valley near Glens Falls. With last night's lows falling close to freezing, will expect similar values again tonight, so will go with a Frost Advisory for this area. Adjusted POPs slightly for Saturday night through Sunday evening to account for slow moving frontal boundary moving west to east across the region. While rainfall amounts look fairly light, have tried to time precip potential during this period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized areas of frost expected tonight across the upper Hudson Valley due to low temperatures in the middle 30s. 2) Unsettled pattern this weekend into early next week along with periods of showers and mainly below normal temperatures, but no hydrologic impacts expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Although there are a few spotty showers and fairly widespread clouds this afternoon, there should be decent clearing expected this evening as an upper level disturbance exits to the east. Once clouds exit this evening, winds will be diminishing with the loss of daytime mixing and temperatures should fall quickly. Similar to last night, lows look to reach the mid 30s in the Upper Hudson Valley near Glens Falls, which should promote the development of patchy/areas of frost. With the growing season underway, sensitive and tender vegetation could be damaged by frost and protective measures should be taken to ensure the safety of the young plants. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Washington, SE Warren and Northern Saratoga Counties for late tonight. As the next disturbance approaches, clouds will increase from south to north for the late night hours, as insentropic lift increases. This should allow temps to hold steady or slightly rise towards daybreak, ending the threat for frost around 7 AM or so. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another period of steady light rainfall is expected for Saturday, especially in the morning, as another upper level disturbance lifts across the region from the southwest. An area of low pressure, aided by isentropic lift/warm advection, will allow for an area of steady light rain to lift northeast across the region for Saturday morning from southwest to northeast. The Capital Region will be on the northwest edge of this precip, with less potential for rainfall further north and west. However, areas from the Capital Region on south and east look to see several hours of steady light rainfall, with a tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall expected for Saturday, which precip winding down in the afternoon hours from west to east. With the clouds and precip, temps will be held down into the 40s and 50s. More wet weather is expected thanks to an approaching cold front, which will be on the leading edge of a large upper level trough for late Saturday night through Sunday evening. This front will slowly move from west to east across the region. While the Adirondacks will see the best chance for showers on Sat night, the rest of the region will see a period of showers for Sunday into Sunday evening along the boundary. The steadiest precip may be Sunday evening into Sunday night for far southeastern areas as a wave develops along the front, but it's still unclear if this steadiest rainfall will be in our just southeast of our area for Sunday night. Total rainfall amounts don't look excessive, so no hydrologic impacts are expected and with limited instability in place, there doesn't appear to be much potential for thunderstorms at this time as well. Temps will be slightly milder ahead of the front with some breaks of sun and Mother's Day highs will likely be in the 60s for many spots. However, temps look to cool down behind the front for early next week, with temps back down into the 50s once again for Monday and Tuesday. Although the upper level trough will be overhead for early next week and cool temps will be in place, moisture looks limited, so there probably won't be much additional precip at this time with a partly to mostly sunny sky in place each day. Temperatures will then moderate for the rest of the week, but some additional chances for precip look to occur, with an active weather pattern remaining in place. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z Sunday...As a warm front lifts northward from the mid-Atlantic towards the terminals tonight, scattered showers will initially reach POU and PSF before 12 UTC. While vis likely becomes MVFR during initial rain showers, latest guidance continues to suggest VFR cigs will remain at POU matching upstream observations while there is higher confidence of MVFR cigs at PSF. Showers gradually rise northward reaching ALB by 12 - 14 UTC again resulting in MVFR vis but cigs should remain VFR. Showers eventually reach GFL closer to midday with MVFR cigs and vis expected. Rain turns steady at all terminals by 16 to 19 UTC resulting in MVFR cigs and vis with even a low to medium chance for IFR vis. The steadiest rain exits by from west to east by 21 - 23 UTC with vis likely remaining MVFR due to lingering isolated showers/mist with cigs deteriorating to IFR at all terminals by or shortly after 00 UTC as low-level moisture lingers. Winds will generally be south-southeast by 12 to 15 UTC sustained 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15-25kts. Winds will generally be lighter at GFL with sustained winds around 5kts. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ041-043-083- 084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...31