226 FXUS61 KALY 142330 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 730 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Allowed Wind Advisory to expire at 6 PM, as peak wind gusts have decreased below 45 mph. Occasional wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will still occur into this evening before weakening overnight. Marginal risk (level 1 to 5) in the Day 3 Convective Outlook from SPC shifted slightly eastward and now includes parts of the eastern and northern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley for Monday/Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing confidence for strong winds, mild temperatures and areas of showers on Monday before an impressive cold front ushers in a period of moderate to locally heavy rain Monday night. There is a low chance for renewed minor river flooding in parts of western New England into Tuesday. 2) With quickly falling temperatures in the wake of a cold front Monday night, there is a low to medium chance for rain to changeover to snow with a 40 to 80% chance for at least 1 inch of snow from the Greater Capital District north and west by 8AM Tuesday. Strong gusty winds continue into Tuesday with a 40 to 75% chance for gusts to exceed 40mph. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A rapidly deepening upper level shortwave in the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday will evolve into a cut-off low and a nearly full latitude trough that extends near the Gulf Coast states. Southerly winds ahead of the cut-off low will strengthen impressively Sunday night into Monday with v-componet anomalies reaching 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal per the ENS standardized anomalies. This includes a notable jet in the 850 to 700 hPa layer directing moisture out of the Gulf into the Northeast with PWATs reaching 1 - 1.5" or 3 to 4 standardized anomalies above normal. This moisture rich and mild air mass will spread into the Northeast Sunday night as a warm front lifts northward. A few embedded shortwaves should support additional lift and with pockets of weak elevated instability, expecting areas of showers to track through the region overnight into early Monday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, sfc temperatures in the southern Greens near freezing may support brief freezing rain potential Sunday night but with temperatures warming overnight, any impacts should be minimal. Best chance for some rumbles of thunder looks to be in NW CT where MUCAPE values range 100 - 200 J/kg and lapse rates in the 850 - 500 hPa layer reaching 6 to 6.5". This can support pockets of moderate rainfall rates during any convection. The very impressive low and mid-level southerly jet will be directed overhead during the day Monday with southeasterly sfc winds likely turning breezy; however, with forecast soundings in good agreement for a low- level inversion to in place, latest probabilistic guidance shows the potential for gusts to exceed 40mph between 2AM Monday and 2AM Tuesday to be mainly focused in the Capital District, western New England and in the Taconics where values range 50 to 75%. Western New England and the Taconics are especially notorious for observing gusty winds in southeast flow environments as winds downslope of the Berkshires and southern Greens. Should confidence increase, wind advisory will likely be needed. Otherwise, Monday will be quite mild with at least a 75% chance for temperatures to exceed 60 outside of the southern Adirondacks. Scattered showers likely track through the area during the day Monday, especially east of the Hudson, but the strongest height falls will hold off until Monday evening when the main trough axis approaches with the trough even taking on a negative tilt. The strongest height falls will coincide with the arrival of main sfc cold front with the high moisture transport and low-level convergence focusing moisture along the boundary. While the main sfc low will already be occluded by the time the front arrives, the additional forcing from the trough becoming negatively tilted and favorable jet dynamics looks to support a secondary low developing along the front. This would enhance rainfall amounts and rates, especially if sufficient instability can lingering into the evening hours as the front races eastward. We will keep a close eye on potential thunderstorm activity as severe weather will be a concerns for neighboring WFOs to our west and south with the latest Day 3 SPC convective outlook nudging the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) further east into areas near and west of the Hudson. Localized damaging winds would be the primary hazard from any severe weather given the expected high shear, low cape environment. Total rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower compared to the previous forecast likely due to the progressive nature of the boundary with amounts ranging 0.75 to 1.75" (highest in the eastern Catskills and western New England). The latest RFC river forecast shows river rises Monday night into Tuesday as a result with forecast points along the Hoosic and Walloomsac nearing minor flood stage. KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures quickly crash behind the front Monday night as winds shift to the west and usher in a much cold air mass. While temperatures drop below freezing by 06 - 12 UTC from west to east, westerly winds will also turn gusty behind the front which will help dry out sfcs. Will still need to monitor for slick spots into the Tuesday A.M commute, especially if precip can turn to snow before ending. The changeover to snow will depend on where any secondary lows can develop and how much precip lingers once the cold air arrives. Latest guidance has trended upwards with snowfall amounts mainly for areas near and north/west of the Capital District with a 40 to 80% chance for at least 1 inch of snow by 8AM Tuesday. This potentially can lead to slippery travel for the Tuesday A.M commute. With colder air pouring east in the wake of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday, forecast soundings show deep mixing up to nearly 850hPa supporting mixing of stronger winds down to the sfc. Latest probabilistic guidance shows 40 to 75% chance for gusts to exceed 40mph 2AM Tues to 2AM Wed. This increases the confidence for the need for a wind advisory, mainly focused down the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District, eastern Catskills, western New England, and the Upper Hudson Valley where probabilities are highest. Main impacts would be downed tree branches and blowing around unsecured objects. However, it is unlikely we will need a high wind warning as the probability for gusts over 50mph is limited to mainly higher terrain areas with values near or under 30%. The continued cold air advection looks to also support some lake effect snow showers into the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Tuesday into especially Tuesday night as winds become more westerly aloft but amounts look light. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00z Monday...Clouds will continue to scour out this evening, first from south to north in the Hudson Valley from KALB to KGFL, then eventually by around 04z at KPSF. It will take longer for clouds to clear at KPSF due to westerly upslope flow. Conditions will be mainly VFR, except for occasional MVFR cigs at KPSF this evening. High/mid level clouds will already increase from SW to NE from 08z-11z Sunday associated with an approaching warm front, with cigs at VFR levels. No precipitation is expected at the TAF sties as the front moves north Sunday morning. Winds will initially be west-northwest around 10-20 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt at KALB/KPSF into this evening, then decreasing to around 5-8 kt by 04z-06z. Wind will then be light and variable after 06z, before becoming southeast and increasing to 9-15 kt Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Definite SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Definite SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...07