452 FXUS61 KALY 161745 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 145 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added enhanced wording late this afternoon into this evening when there is the highest potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. This matches where the Storm Prediction Center has maintained its Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Then, lowered temperatures for Sunday given period of rain through the first half of the day followed by cold air advection. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) and marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening mainly for areas near and north of I-90. Damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning are the primary hazards from any severe storms. 2. After a stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, temperatures trend below normal Sunday and Monday. Impactful weather is unlikely through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... While showers and thunderstorms tracked through eastern NY and western New England overnight, an amplifying shortwave trough in the Great Lakes will allow the quasi-stationary boundary that has been overhead the past few days to finally lift north of our region today. This will allow the warm sector to surge northward and lead to one final day of unseasonably warm temperatures. There is at least a 50% chance that areas near and south of I-90 will exceed 80 degrees this afternoon with at least a 75% chance for areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and lower elevations in Litchfield County to exceed 85 degrees. This is about 20 to 25 degrees above normal for mid- April. Our climate section shows record highs for April 16 with POU the only site that may near its daily record today. Otherwise, subsidence due to the building ridge centered well to our south will keep our region mainly dry through mid-afternoon. There is increasing consensus among the guidance that the shortwave trough approaching from the Great Lakes will result in height falls late this afternoon into this evening with its associated sfc low and attendant cold also tracking eastward. Forecast soundings show an elevated mixed layer tracking into areas mainly from I-90 northward today with the inversion eroding this afternoon in response to the approaching height falls. This combined with a very warm and moist boundary layer will generate sufficient surface based instability with guidance showing 1000 - 1500 J/kg developing. As we remain within the northern periphery of broad ridging aloft, fast flow aloft will also maintain impressive deep layer and effective shear ranging 40 to 50kt. The rather unidirectional shear through the column and fast flow will likely also lead to straight lined hodographs. While most of the day will remain dry, both the NAM and RAP suggest that increasing height falls and decreasing showalter index values late this afternoon towards or shortly after 21 UTC will allow convection to initiate around a potential subtle pre-frontal trough draped near I-90. However, the HRRR maintains mainly dry conditions through 00 UTC so there remains uncertainty if convective initiation be late this afternoon or hold until this evening. Should convection start late this afternoon, weak forcing combined with shear vectors oriented slightly perpendicular to the weak boundary should support a storm cluster storm mode. Although overall instability values are not overly impressive, forecast soundings show the remnant EML and high equilibrium levels likely allows instability to extend deep through the column with DCAPE values rather high near or greater than 500 J/kg. While damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storms, the straight lined hodographs also indicate an environment supportive of sustained strong updrafts capable of large hail, frequent lightning, and splitting cells. As the main sfc cold front and stronger height falls arrive this evening, the storm mode should transition to a more linear structure with damaging winds becoming the primary hazard from any severe storms. This all matches well with the Slight Risk (level 2 to 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 to 5) in SPC's Day 1 Convective Outlook focused near/north of I-90 where the stronger forcing aligns. The severe weather threat should diminish by 03 - 06 UTC as shortwave trough moves overhead and the instability finally diminishes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures trend lower Friday and Saturday yet remain seasonably warm. A notable change to the weather pattern then ensues Saturday night into Sunday as a potent cold front marches eastward resulting in a period of widespread stratiform rain. With northwest winds in the wake of the front advecting much cooler air eastward on Sunday, temperatures will drop 20 to 25 degrees compared to the previous few days and remind us it is still only spring. In fact, rain showers may mix with snow in the higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks before ending on Sunday. Continued cold air advection Sunday night into Monday morning also looks to favor upslope snow showers in the Taconics, southern Greens, parts of the Berkshires, northern Catskills and western Adirondacks where there is a 20 to 30% chance for at least 1 inch of snow. However, given the time of year and higher elevation location, travel impacts are unlikely. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions through this afternoon outside of any scattered showers/thunderstorms, which are more likely to occur 22Z/Thu-03Z/Fri at KGFL, with lower chances farther south and east between roughly 00Z-04Z/Fri. Brief heavy downpours will produce periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Additional showers accompanying a cold front will move west to east across the TAF sites between 05Z-10Z/Fri, with Cigs lowering to MVFR and VFR/MVFR Vsbys. In the wake of the front, a period of MVFR Cigs are expected, with occasional IFR possible at KPSF after 12Z/Fri. In addition, scattered showers and/or patchy drizzle will be possible Friday morning in the wake of the front. South to southwest winds will increase to 8-12 KT this afternoon with a few gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Winds will then shift into the west later tonight at 5-10 KT, then become north to northeast Friday morning at 8-12 KT with a few gusts up to 20 KT possible. Winds will be stronger and variable in direction in/near thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...24 CLIMATE...07