532 FXUS61 KALY 232338 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast through tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west. Clouds will increase tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday into Sunday night. The cold front will move east of the region Monday with some morning showers possible, and followed by much cooler weather by mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible Sunday afternoon/evening across the southwest Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region. Discussion: As of 220 PM EDT, mostly sunny and somewhat breezy conditions across the region, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and a gusty south to southwest wind of 20-25 mph. Fair and warm conditions this evening for most areas, although a few showers currently developing across western NY may reach the SW Adirondacks shortly after sunset. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will expand slightly south and east toward and especially after midnight, with best chances for a few overnight showers for areas north of I-90 and near/west of I-87. Otherwise clouds will increase, along with a persistent southerly breezy keeping temps warmer than the last few nights, mainly in the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s. Cold front will slowly approach from the northwest late Sunday into Sunday night. After some scattered morning showers/isolated thunderstorms mainly north of I-90 and west of I-87, additional showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon, especially across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region. MU CAPES increase to 800-1500 J/kg in these areas in the afternoon, amid increasing deep layer shear of 30-35 KT. Within this environment, a few stronger thunderstorms could develop with strong gusty winds. In addition, with low/mid level flow nearly parallel to the incoming front, some training of thunderstorms could occur in these areas, producing locally heavy rain. Latest HREFs indicate 3-hour Probs for >1" rainfall of 50-70% across the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley, and 30-50% extending into the eastern Mohawk Valley and SE Adirondacks. Probs for >3"/3 hours is less than 10%. Given such dry antecedent conditions, much of this rainfall will be beneficial, however will watch for any prolonged training which could lead to isolated minor flooding. Otherwise it will be warm and somewhat humid with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Showers/thunderstorms across NW areas should gradually shift south/east Sunday evening before weakening and decreasing in coverage as best instability decreases, and stronger upper level support remains displaced farther north and west. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message: - Lingering showers/thunderstorms mainly east of I-87/south of I-90 through early Monday afternoon. - Below normal temperatures for much of next week with only a few passing rain showers possible (20-30%) mainly along and north of I-90. Discussion: Cold front will be slowly tracking eastward Monday morning. Some guidance suggests a few additional showers/thunderstorms develop along/just ahead of the front late Monday morning through early afternoon for areas east of I-87 and south of I-90, and therefore 30-50% PoPs remain for these areas, and less to the west. Otherwise clearing and turning less humid in the afternoon, with high temps ranging from the 60s across the SW Adirondacks, to the mid 70s to lower 80s farther south and east. High pressure then builds in with much cooler temperatures for Tuesday through Friday. Cold air aloft combined with some cyclonic flow and the warm upstream Great Lakes may promote isolated/scattered rain showers across the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks, with perhaps some showers extending as far south/east as the Catskills, Capital Region and southern Greens/northern Berkshires, especially Tuesday through early Wednesday. Have added some 20-30% chances for showers in these areas during this time period, greatest across the western Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks. Below normal temps Monday night through Friday, with daytime highs in the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and 50s/60s across higher elevations, along with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s, though some mid/upper 30s are quite possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. In fact, latest NBM probs for min temps <40 are as high as 70-80% across some of these areas Tuesday through Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... No major changes in thinking compared to the previous TAF package. VFR conditions prevail through this evening, then some patchy lower clouds may result in areas of MVFR ceilings developing 07Z-11Z, especially at KPOU/KPSF. Any MVFR ceilings that do develop are expected to improve to VFR between 14Z-18Z. 850 hPa winds will support the potential for moderate turbulence below 6000 ft through roughly 12Z along with the potential for surface gusts of 20-25 knots, especially at KALB. While there will likely be showers that develop across central and eastern NY after 18Z, the chance for flight category impacts at area TAF sites currently looks to be less than 30%. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...TH