555 FXUS61 KALY 131836 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 236 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Wind Advisory issued for the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Helderbergs, Capital District, eastern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires from 6 AM to 6 PM Saturday. Increasing confidence for an intense storm system bringing the potential for strong winds, heavy rainfall, and even a few thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clipper system brings moderate to locally heavy snowfall across portions of southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains this afternoon into early Saturday afternoon. Strong gusty winds will occur associated with, and behind this clipper system, especially late tonight into Saturday. 2) Storm system approaching from the west expected to bring another round of strong winds and locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through Monday night. Renewed minor river flooding may occur especially across NW CT. 3) Below normal temperatures return in the wake of the storm system early next week and continues through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong clipper system approaching from the upper Great Lakes will result in snow quickly developing this afternoon as isentropic lift increases along the leading edge of strengthening southerly flow. Most of the initial snow should be concentrated from around the I-90 corridor north. Snow could initially mix with rain in lower elevations, but during periods of steady precip should change to snow due to wetbulb effect. Due to marginal temperatures in the mid 30s, most accumulation in valley locations should be limited to grassy surfaces and untreated pavement. However, snow will accumulate efficiently across the higher terrain. With strengthening S-SW flow aloft, upslope flow will greatly enhance snowfall across the S. Adirondacks, downsloping will occur across the Greater Capital District limiting snowfall. After the initial period of snow moves through by early this evening, there will be additional periods of snow moving in from the west along the system's triple point. There will be some moderate bursts of snow with isolated squalls even in lower elevations later this evening, which should be after the commute time. The flow shifts to westerly after midnight, as the primary cyclone tracks east across N. NY/New England. This will result in the steadier snow shifting to westerly upslope areas of the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens, with mainly scattered snow showers elsewhere. The snow will gradually decrease in intensity and coverage across the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens through early Sat afternoon. Will maintain current winter headlines. So expecting 5-12" snow in N. Herkimer/Hamilton counties, where the Winter Storm Warning remains in effect, with 3-7" in N. Fulton, N. Warren Counties and the S. Greens of VT above 1500 ft. Accumulations elsewhere should be minor around Trace-3". The other main hazard associated with the clipper are strong/gusty winds, first with S-SW flow ahead of the cyclone with gusts of 25-35 mph in favored spots later this afternoon into tonight. Then, stronger gusts are expected late tonight into Sat as the flow shifts to the W-NW. Cold advection and a strengthening pressure gradient will lead to more widespread mixing. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected in favored areas in W-NW flow. Latest 24-hr NBM probs ending 2 AM Sun for wind gusts > 45 mph are 50-90% across parts of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, N. Taconics, Berkshires and E. Catskills. A Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas from 6 AM to 6 PM Sat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another storm system approaching from the Great Lakes and Midwest is expected to bring strong winds and locally heavy rainfall mainly in the late Sun night through Mon night time frame. The parent cyclone is forecast to intensify to ~980 mb as it tracks northeast across the Midwest and central Great Lakes during this time. The system's cold front is anticipated to move eastward across our area late Mon into Mon night. With such a deep cyclone and amplified flow pattern, southerly winds ahead of the cold front will increase substantially, with NAEFS showing v-component wind anomalies of +3 to +5 STDEV. This will result in a risk of 45+ mph winds in favored areas, especially from the Hudson Valley east into western New England. The next hazard to mention is potential for heavy rainfall. While there me occasional showers in the developing moist southerly flow, the main threat for widespread heavy rain would be just ahead of and along the cold front. PWAT anomalies have increased to +3 to +5 STDEV along with IVT anomalies of +4 to +8 STDEV, which is quite substantial deep moisture. The cold front looks to focus an area of downpours and potentially a narrow cold frontal rainband in the late Mon afternoon to evening time frame. Will have to monitor for renewed river flooding in NW CT and also urban/localized flash flooding as there will be runoff from snowmelt from mountain areas in addition to rainfall. A Flood Watch may eventually be needed. Lastly, there is a conditional severe T-storm threat due to such strong kinematics, forcing, anomalous moisture and mild temperatures along with possible instability. Even small magnitude of CAPE could result in a focused line of low-topped convection that could produce sporadic wind damage in this type of setup (low CAPE/high shear). Current NBM probs for SBCAPE > 200 J/kg is 30-60% and for > 300 J/Kg is 20-40%. Will continue to monitor trends. KEY MESSAGE 3... In wake of the strong cold front Mon night, temperatures will drop back to below normal levels Tue through at least the middle of the week. There could be some lake effect snow in favored spots through Tue night, but accumulations look light. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing in most areas Tue, with gusty NW winds making it feel colder. 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to be -1 to -2 STDEV Tue through Wed. This translates into highs ranging from the 20s to around 40F each day, with lows in the single digits to upper 10s Tue night and 10s to 20s Wed night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this afternoon though clouds continue to stream into the region, forcing the development and lowering of ceilings ahead of a potent clipper system. Periods of snow, rain, and a mix thereof are expected as early as this afternoon through much of tonight as a result of this clipper with most of the consistent snow confined to GFL and PSF. POU should not see any snow at all with sufficiently warm temperatures maintaining rain briefly tonight and KALB could have a mix later this afternoon before transitioning to snow for a few hours tonight. Within the most consistent periods of snow at GFL and PSF, IFR conditions are anticipated to be met primarily with reduced visibility but possibly also by lowered ceiling heights. ALB could also have a brief period of IFR conditions due to reduced visibility within its potential period of snow overnight, but this is less certain. Outside of this potential, ALB and POU should remain within the MVFR to VFR categories throughout the 18z cycle. Once snow ceases at GFL and PSF early tomorrow morning, a return to VFR conditions is also anticipated rather quickly. Winds will begin picking up this afternoon out of the south to southwest with sustained speeds reaching about 8-12 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt. Throughout the night tonight, winds remain elevated and even pick up some, still out of the southwest. Sustained speeds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20 to 25 kt through tomorrow morning. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Definite RA...SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ038>040- 047>054-058-063. Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ032-033. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ042-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ058-063. MA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...12