718 FXUS61 KALY 271038 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 538 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added chance of rain/snow showers mainly in the Adirondacks on Saturday associated with a cold front passage. Increased probability of snowfall Saturday night into early Sunday, with a disturbance expected to bring an inch or two of snow to much of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week. Some light snow is expected late Saturday night into Sunday with this transition to colder weather. 2) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring some accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix to at least parts of the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday along with an additional system late next week. Forecast confidence remains low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A brief warmup still expected on Sat ahead of a cold front approaching from SE Canada. The front looks to cross our area from NW to SE Sat P.M. A SW flow ahead of the front should help boost temperatures into the 40s across much of the area except for parts of the S. Adirondacks and S. Greens where temperatures will likely start to drop during the afternoon behind the front. Even after the cold front pushes through, deeper mixing in immediate wake of the front should still support 45-50F temperatures from mainly the Hudson Valley and I-90 corridor south through much of Sat afternoon. The last 40F temperature at ALB was on Jan 22, so it's been over a month since it's been this warm. The warmup will be brief, as a much colder air mass begins to filter in Sat night. Guidance has trended slightly more amplified with a short wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes, with a weak surface low developing over the mid Atlantic region. Raised PoPs to mention likely from around I-90 south late Sat night into early Sun. QPF has increased to 0.05-0.15", which would translate to 1-2" of snow. The snow should end Sun morning to early afternoon. It will be cool with highs ranging from the upper 10s in the W. Adirondacks to mid 30s in the mid Hudson Valley. Well below normal temperatures will then filter in Sun night through Mon night associated with a strong 1040 mb area of high pressure building in across the Northeast. NAEFS continue to indicate 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV during this time. Low temperatures expected to be in the single digits from Albany south to below zero north of the Capital District Sun night. Wind chills should not be much lower due to winds becoming lighter as the high builds in late Sun night. Highs Mon only expected to reach the 10s and 20s, with lows Mon night single digits to slightly below zero. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next chance of wintry precip looks to arrive late Tue into Tue night as high pressure shifts east off the coast and a potential weak wave of low pressure approaches from the south/west. There continues to be quite a bit of variability in the guidance regarding timing and QPF, but overall chances for measurable snow have increased with 24-hr NBM probs ending 7 AM Wed of 40-50% for > 1" of snow. Snow could even become a wintry mix before ending Wed, especially across southern parts of the area due to some possible warming aloft. An additional round of wintry precip and/or rain may occur again late next week as another potential wave of low pressure and a front approach from the south/west. There is a good signal for rising heights aloft, which would result in a warming trend. However, depending on where the potential surface wave tracks there could still be some wintry precip due to shallow cold air trapped in the low levels with a deep snow pack in place. Forecast confidence is very low during this time. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours as high pressure moves across the region. Light to calm winds initially will increase out of the south to around 5-10 kts by mid-morning, subsiding to light and variable for most by evening. A cold front will be moving across the region late in the period, but any impacts should hold until after the current TAF cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...17