434 FXUS61 KALY 031138 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 638 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... We expanded Winter Weather Advisories into the Taconics to account for a period of snow arriving late this morning continuing into this afternoon before mixing with freezing rain this evening. Increasing confidence for a cold air damming signature to develop Thursday night into Friday morning resulting in freezing rain and slippery travel in the southern Adirondacks, southern VT, and western MA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slippery travel this afternoon into this evening, including the afternoon commute, due to an initial period of snow arriving this morning into this afternoon before turning to a wintry mix including freezing rain late this afternoon into this evening before becoming plain rain in some valley areas from Albany southward. 2) There is a low to medium chance for additional slippery travel across the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and western MA Thursday night into Friday morning from a period of freezing rain. 3) Moderate to high confidence in a period of warmer weather combined with occasional rainfall this weekend into early next week that will likely result in snowmelt and help break-up river ice. This may result in localized flooding on some rivers but given low probabilities for rainfall amounts in excess of 1", widespread flooding is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a chilly night thanks to large scale subsidence from a ~1040hPa high pressure exiting off the New England coast, a warm front will lift northward from the mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Cloudy yet dry to start the day this morning before warm air and moisture advection ahead of an approaching boundary increases and overruns the chilly air mas in place. Snow showers develop initially in the eastern Catskills and mid- Hudson Valley towards or shortly after 15 UTC with snow expanding in coverage and intensity through early afternoon as it reaches the I-90 corridor and western New England. As warm air advection intensifies this afternoon, forecast soundings show lift intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone for a period, especially near and north of I-90 as well as in southern VT where southwesterly flow can also upslope the terrain. The steady period of snow looks to coincide with the P.M commute this afternoon so expecting slippery travel conditions. Motorist should allow extra travel time and drive carefully. Further south in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT, lift looks to just briefly intersect the DGZ before the DGZ lifts higher in the column so snow should not accumulate as efficiently. Despite southerly sfc winds this afternoon, sfc temperatures should remain cool around freezing across much of eastern NY and western New England due to wet-bulbing processes. By 21 - 00 UTC, the warm nose aloft will advance northward into areas near and south of I-90 allowing snow to mix with sleet and eventually freezing rain early this evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the duration and coverage of freezing rain early this evening as sfc temperatures will also be warming. Confidence in freezing rain is higher where temperatures should struggle to warm, mainly in western New England, the Taconics, eastern Catskills, the Helderbergs, Mohawk Valley and parts of the Upper Hudson Valley. This is where we placed our Winter Weather Advisories, expanding the advisories into the Taconics with this update given higher confidence in temperatures struggling to warm. Similarly to the previous forecast, the warm nose looks to struggle to reach the southern Adirondacks and we mainly expect steady snow to mix with pockets of sleet this evening with any freezing rain limited so did not expand the advisory here. The Hudson Valley should warm slightly above freezing late this afternoon into this evening (33-34 degrees) so expecting snow/sleet to mix with/changeover to mainly plain rain this evening and therefore held off on the advisory. However, if temperatures remain cooler, the potential for freezing rain will increase. Latest probabilities for freezing rain from the NBM shows 15-30% in the mid-Hudson Valley up to the Capital District from 21 - 03 UTC so will need to closely monitor temperatures. The strongest warm air and moisture advection exits into New England after Midnight with dry air aloft quickly shifting eastward in its wake. This will likely shut off the wintry mix from west to east rather quickly by 06 - 09 UTC but high res guidance shows potential for pockets of freezing drizzle to linger in the southern Adirondacks/southern Greens overnight as we lose ice nuclei in the clouds and sfc temperatures remain near or just below freezing. Overall, expecting a general 1 to 3 inches of snow from this event with locally higher amounts near 3 to 4 inches in the southern Greens and south facing slope of the southern Adirondacks due to upslope enhancements. In addition, a glaze up to a tenth of an inch of flat ice from freezing rain where winter weather advisories will go into effect. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure takes control of the Northeast through Wednesday maintaining dry conditions with much milder temperatures rising into the 40s due our zonal/westerly flow regime. However, our warm front will be positioned just to our south in the mid- Atlantic. As an additional shortwave deepens in the central CONUS, ridging builds over the eastern seaboard, sending the warm front northward with additional shortwaves riding along it. While there is growing consensus for additional periods of precipitation to develop along the boundary Wednesday night into Thursday, there is uncertainty regarding just how far north this boundary extends with the latest probabilities for 0.01" of precipitation Wed night under 25% for areas from I-90 while values increase to 30-45% heading southward into the mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills. Should precip end up expanding closer to I-90 and into western New England Wed night, the warm nose aloft combined with cooler sfc temperatures favors freezing rain but with POPs limited to slight chance or low end chance, this potential remains low. POPs increase to chance in the mid-Hudson Valley but with tempertures slightly warmer in the mid-30s, p-type favors plain rain but it is close and will need to monitor trends. Confidence in freezing rain increases Thursday night into Friday morning as a classic cold air damming signature develops. This is in response to large scale high pressure building into Quebec as the sfc low from the Central CONUS tracks into the Northeast, lifting the aforementioned warm front northward. East to northeast winds develop Thurs night, draining chilly air from northern New England southwestward. As precipitation expands into the region Thursday night, the warm air advection aloft looks to support freezing rain in southern VT, western MA and in areas mainly north of I-90 where sfc temperatures should cool below freezing. Latest probabilities for freezing rain through 12 UTC Friday here range 20 to 40%. Elsewhere, sfc temperatures should be milder supporting plain rain but we closely monitor trends. Freezing rain looks to linger into Friday morning before temperatures gradually warm through the day with probabilities decreasing under 10% by Friday afternoon. Main impacts from freezing rain Thurs night into Friday morning looks to be slippery travel conditions, including the Friday A.M commute. KEY MESSAGE 3... Large scale subsidence centered over the Southeast U.S builds northward this weekend ahead of a slow moving boundary that slides south/east through Ontario into the Northeast. A warm front initially lifts northward through the region Fri night or Saturday morning leading to areas of precipitation before southwesterly winds advect a much warmer air mass into the Northeast this weekend. Latest probabilities continuing to show greater than 75% chance for max temperatures to exceed 45 degrees across much of eastern NY and western New England both days. Probabilities are lower on Sunday in the southern Adirondacks and the southern Greens under 40% as the boundary tracks eastward across the region. Still uncertainty on timing of this boundary and if the front is slower, probabilities for 45F+ should increase. The warm temperatures should help ripen and at least partially melt the existing snow on the ground which still ranges 5 to 10 inches in valley areas and 1 to 2 feet along the spine of the Greens and in the southern Adirondacks. In addition, widespread precipitation looks to spread across the Northeast as the aforementioned boundary slowly tracks from Ontario into the Northeast this weekend. Between the warm front Fri night/early Sat plus additional precipitation from the cold front over the weekend, there is a 20 to 60% chance for precipitation (likely rain) to exceed 0.5" from 7AM Fri to 7AM Sun. The potential for over 1" of precipitation is much lower under 15% except the southern Adirondacks which is near 25%. This suggests that while the combination of snow melt and falling rain should help break-up existing river ice, any flooding from ice jams should be localized due to overall low rainfall amounts. Heading into next week, confidence in another period of warmer temperatures increases with the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook for March 8-12 showing 80-90% chance for above normal temperatures across the Northeast. With our snow pack likely ripened from the weekend warmth, this second period of warm weather should further melt the existing snow pack. Guidance shows additional boundaries and low pressure systems tracking into the region for the middle to end of next week, providing additional opportunities for rainfall. Therefore, we will remain vigilant for additional ice break-up on rivers/streams and ice jam flooding potential as rain and snowmelt flow into rivers. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR/high MVFR conditions begin the TAF cycle for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU with some low clouds increasing ahead of a frontal boundary and a low pressure system between 12Z-15Z/Tue. Snow develops from south to north with MVFR/IFR conditions in terms of vsbys/cigs 15Z-18Z/Tue. TEMPO or PROB30 groups were used to bring the snow in for the TAF sites. Expect widespread IFR conditions to continue through the afternoon into the early evening. The pcpn will mix with some pellets and rain for KALB/KPOU 22Z/Tue to 01Z/Wed. KPSF will see a wintry mix to sleet/freezing rain by 23Z/Tue. KGFL may hold mostly as snow until 03Z/Wed, but a brief mixture with/to freezing drizzle is possible. The pcpn should diminish 03Z-06Z/Wed with some patchy plain drizzle or freezing drizzle with IFR vsbys/cigs persisting into the early morning hours. Some localized LIFR/IFR mist/fog may develop at KPOU/KPSF after 06Z/Wed. The winds will be southeast to south at less than 4-8 KT this morning into the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable to calm after 00Z/Wed. LLWS was added to KGFL/KALB/KPSF early this afternoon and continues into early this evening, as the 2 kft AGL winds increase to 30-35 KT with the sfc winds 5 KT or less. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of FZRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ041-054-061-066-083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...53/15