381 FXUS61 KALY 271818 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 118 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Light snow continues to be expected for Saturday night into Sunday. Have leaned higher than NBM POPs for this time period and leaned on the higher end of the blended guidance for QPF/snowfall as well. Wintry precip still expected next week from late Tuesday onward through the late week. Have kept just rain or snow in the forecast for now, but mixed precip is possible as well based on possible temp profiles. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week. Some light snow is expected late Saturday night into Sunday with this transition to colder weather. 2) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring some accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix to at least parts of the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday along with an additional system late next week. Forecast confidence remains low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... With a southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, temps will be much milder on Saturday compared to recent days. Valley areas should reach the mid to upper 40s, which will likely be the mildest day in the area since mid January. A cold front will be passing through the area during the late morning into the afternoon hours. There may be a few light rain or snow showers along this boundary, mainly for the Adirondacks, but most areas will stay dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky as the front crosses from west to east. Winds will switch to the west to northwest and colder air will start to arrive into the region during evening hours. All areas should be falling below freezing by midnight or so. As the front settled southward, a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the boundary and lift northeast. Moisture is limited over the area, but an area of light snow looks to develop and move west to east across the region for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It may linger into early Sunday afternoon for eastern areas. Total QPF is fairly marginal, although models runs have slightly increase lately. Most areas will see a coating to an inch or so, although some localized totals up to 2 inches is possible (especially high terrain and southern areas). NBM shows a 20-40% chance of 1" amd 10-30% chance for 2", although our forecast slightly leans a little more on the wetter side of the guidance accounting for some of the recent trends. Still, amounts look to be sub- advisory, although some locally slick travel is expected on Sunday morning, especially for high terrain areas and untreated surfaces. Behind this system, it looks rather cold for Sunday night through Tuesday. A large 1040 hpa will build towards the area on Sunday night into Monday and pass overhead on Monday night before departing on Tuesday. 850 hpa temps will be as low as -15 to -20 C at 850 hpa within the core of the cold air aloft. Temps look to fall into the single digits for the Capital Region and Hudson Valley on Sunday night, with below zero readings over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. After highs only in the teens and 20s on Monday, lows will once again fall close to zero or the single digits on Monday night for many areas. Tuesday will still be chilly, but will start to see some moderation. KEY MESSAGE 2... The weather will be unsettled for Tuesday through the late week as a series of storm systems impacts the region. As a storm system lifts northward towards the area, some light precip is expected late Tuesday through early Wednesday along an advancing warm front. Initially, it will be cold enough for snow, although precip will change to wintry mix and/or rain, especially for southern areas, as warmer air works its way into the region. Still, enough wintry precip for slippery travel is possible, especially for northern areas. After a break brief for Wednesday afternoon and evening, another system is expected for Thursday into Friday. Again, northern areas may be see some snow or mixed precip, although the boundary layer may be warmer to start with this event, so snow or mixed precip may be more limited. The exact thermal profiles and where the boundary sets up is still uncertain, so some changes are expected to the forecast, but the trend for unsettled weather and moderating temps seems to be suggested by most model guidance for this time period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 12:45 PM EST, which should continue through at least late tonight. Will see mostly clear skies with just some passing mid and high clouds during this time. As a warm front lifts north tonight into tomorrow morning, there may be some MVFR to IFR cigs and mist as the warm, moist air moves over the colder snowpack. Highest confidence for IFR or lower conditions is at GFL where this was added to the TAF. For the other terminals, confidence is lower, so have only hinted at the chance for some flight category restrictions. That said, we could still see some MVFR to IFR vsbys or cigs late tonight into early tomorrow morning with the warm front. Once the warm front lifts north of our region, conditions return to mainly MVFR to VFR at all terminals with BKN to OVC mid-level clouds. Some light showers possible at ALB/GFL towards the very end of the TAF period with a weak cold front, but these showers should remain north of POU, and are not expected to get to PSF until around 18z. Winds will be from the S/SE at all terminals at 5-10 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable everywhere but ALB tonight after sunset. Winds increase back to 5-10 kt from the S/SE tomorrow morning. Have also mentioned LLWS at GFL and PSF late tonight into tomorrow morning around the time of the warm frontal passage. At POU, low-level jet is not expected to be strong enough for LLWS concerns, and at ALB surface winds should be strong enough to prevent LLWS concerns, although it could be close for a few hours around sunrise with the low-level jet of 35-40 kt. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35