258 FXUS61 KALY 221821 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 221 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some patchy fog for this evening into overnight due to lingering low level moisture. Adjusted dewpoints to the lower end of the blended guidance for Thursday and Friday afternoon hours within the deepest mixing of the day. In addition, adjusted wind gusts higher for Thursday based on the expected deeper mixing as well. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of dry and breezy conditions on Thursday will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread, especially for the Upper Hudson Valley. 2) Although some light showers may return to the region on Saturday, no impactful weather is anticipated through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Despite some low clouds and fog for tonight, RH values are expected to lower significantly on Thursday as drier air works its way into the region. Deep mixing to about 800 hpa will allow RH values to drop as low as 25 to 35 percent on Thursday in valley areas. With the mixing during peak heating, some northwest gusts will reach 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will be milder compared to recent days thanks to the abundant sunshine, with valley highs into the 60s. Input from partners indicate fine fuels are rather dry, despite recent rainfall. Based on this, there will be an elevated risk for fire spread on Thursday, particularly across the Upper Hudson Valley and valley areas of southern Vermont, where dry fuels, gusty winds and low RH will all be in place. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas, although localized fire weather concerns are possible across other valley areas of the region as well. Dry weather will continue into Friday, although winds are not expected to be quite as gusty on Friday due to a weaker pressure gradient in place. Still, RH values may be under 30 percent on Friday afternoon once again so localized fire weather concerns can't be ruled out on Friday. These types of localized concerns will continue to be in place on days when appreciable rainfall does not occur until greenup. KEY MESSAGE 2... Aside from the fire weather concerns on Thursday, little impactful weather is anticipated through early next week. A weak wave of low pressure will be diving from the Great Lakes towards the mid Atlantic States for Friday night into Saturday. This will spread some light rain towards western and southern areas, although there are some differences with how far north and east the precip will get in our area. Any rainfall looks rather light, but some wet weather could impact outdoor activities for southern areas for Saturday. With the clouds and possible precip, daytime temps will be held down into the 50s for Saturday. Behind this system, drier weather looks to return for Sunday into early next week. The next system looks to be around Tuesday, with another round of light rain showers. At this point, no flooding or severe storms are anticipated. Daytime temps look to rebound back into the 60s for Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday... MVFR cigs currently prevail across all TAF sites with southerly flow and gusts up to 15-20 kts at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF, before winds begin to diminish and become more variable by 00Z at all sites. Light showers at KPOU this evening may bring cigs down to MVFR briefly, although prevailing conditions begin to scatter out towards VFR conditions. With winds remaining light, confidence is increasing for periods of low-end MVR and IFR cigs later into the night and early Thursday morning. However, there is still uncertainty regarding whether this manifests as low-level stratus or fog, so using TEMPO groups at KGFL and KPOU to cover the potential for localized mist/fog. Vis and cigs are expected to gradually improve to VFR across all sites by late morning on Thursday, with winds beginning to increase to around 5-10 kts out of the north at KALB and KGFL and the northwest at KPOU and KPSF by the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...23