918 FXUS61 KALY 112341 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 741 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some changes with the timing the transition to rain to snow showers tonight in the wake of the strong cold front. Slightly higher amounts of snowfall for the southwest Adirondack Fri-Fri night. Winds were increased in the wake of the clipper and cold front for Sat-Sat night with some gusts in the 35-45 mph range. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Minor river flooding may occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and the upper Hudson Valley late this afternoon into tomorrow due to the runoff from snow melt, rainfall and any isolated ice jams. 2) A strong cold front will bring showers and isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight, ending as some snow showers on Thursday with some wind gusts around 40 mph for the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, northern Taconics and Berkshires. 3) A clipper system brings moderate to locally heavy snow across portions of the southwest Adirondacks Fri afternoon through Sat morning with below normal temps Saturday afternoon into much of next week. Gusty winds 35-45 mph may occur in the wake of the clippers cold front Sat-Sat night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front continues to lift back northward of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region this afternoon. Temps on the south side of the boundary are in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s on the north side. A strong mid and upper level trough is approaching from the Upper Midwest and the Upper MS River Valley. A low pressure system is moving along the eastern Great Lakes Region this afternoon into tonight with a prefrontal disturbance ahead of the main cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will break out north and west of the Capital Region. PWATs increase to 2 to 4 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. The latest NBM 24-hour probs for > 1" of QPF ending 2 AM Thu are 30-55% across the west/southwest Adirondacks with lower probabilities south and east. Rainfall will generally be a quarter to three quarters of inch over the rest of the hydro service area with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms. Some snow melt with locally moderate to heavy rainfall may produce some minor flooding over or near the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and the Upper Hudson River Valley where a Flood Watch remains in effect. Some ice may break up and move causing a jam in the northern streams and rivers. The latest NERFC guidance continues minor flooding forecasts for late tonight or Thu on the Sacandaga River at Hope, the West Canada Creek at Kast Bridge, and also at Delta Dam. Some locations in the Hudson River Basin from Troy northward and the Mettawee at Granville may hit the Alert or Caution stage. River forecasts will continued to be monitored through tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 2... Changeable weather is coming to the forecast area tonight. The mild air mass the past 3-4 days will be gone, as a strong cold front moves through. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will impact the forecast area tonight. The latest HREFS continues to show mean MUCAPEs in the 100-300 J/kg range. O-6 km shear increases to 50-65 KT. The convection should be elevated, but due to the anomalous PWATs some locally heavy rainfall and possibly a few wind gusts could occur if the parcels become sfc based especially closer to I-84. The latest 3-km HRRR has a few clusters or broken lines from I-84 to south of the Capital Region between 6 pm and midnight. The 3-km NAM has a more continuous organized line from the Capital Region/southern VT between 8 pm and midnight. The thunderstorms are expected to be non-severe based on the latest SPC guidance. We have increased PoPs to likely/categorical for the line in this time frame. Temps will fall initially into the 40s and 50s around or shortly after midnight. Another line of showers moves across the forecast area in the early to mid morning. This will be cold front with strong cold advection, as temps fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s from the Capital Region north and west by sunrise with upper 30s to lower/mid 40s south and east. The mid and upper level trough becomes neutral-negatively tilted over the Northeast late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Some of the pcpn will transition to snow showers across the region, perhaps even a brief period of ice pellets. Temps will fall into the afternoon and then steady. Snow accums will be a coating to perhaps an inch over the Berkshires and Litchfield hills with less amounts north and west, though a few lake effect snow showers will impact the western Adirondacks with light accums. The post frontal winds with increase from the west to northwest at 12-25 mph with some gusts 30-40 mph. Would not rule out a few isolated gusts 40-45 mph or so over the Mohawk Valley/northern Taconics/Capital Region/Berkshires. The coverage area for wind gusts 46-57 mph is small, so no Wind Advisories at this time unless widespread gusts look achievable with deeper mixing. Temps during the afternoon will be much colder in the 20s to lower 30s over the higher terrain and mid 30s to lower 40s in the major valleys. KEY MESSAGE 3... A clipper low and its warm front brings some snow back into the region Fri late morning into Fri night. The isentropic lift increases ahead of the wave with the strongest forcing north and west of the Capital Region. The latest NAM indicates 24-hr probabilities >4" of snow by 2 pm Sat are 40-80% over the southwest Adirondacks...and the >6" probabilities are 35-60% for northern Herkimer and western Hamilton Counties. A Winter Weather Advisory or even a low grade Winter Storm Warning may be needed later in time for the west/southwest Adirondacks. Lighter amounts or snow or rain/snow are expected across the forecast area. The snowfall could impact travel conditions Fri pm-Fri night especially northwest of the Capital Region. After lows in the teens and 20s, expect max temps to rebound into the 30s to lower 40s with some 20s in the Adirondack Park. The clippers cold front on Sat will allow another surge of cold advection advection as the west/northwest winds increase 15-25 mph with some gusts 35-45 mph once again. The NBM/NBM 90th percentiles winds and gust were blended Sat into Sat night. A brief mild spell of weather is possible on Monday with more showers and some thunderstorms ahead of an arctic cold front. Behind this boundary temps will plunge 10-15+ degrees below normal for mid-March. It will feel more like mid-Winter Tue-Wed next week. Max temps will struggle to get out the 20s to lower 30s on Tue based on the latest WPC Days 4-7 guidance in our forecast with lows the single digits and teens. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z/Fri...Active TAF period as a low pressure system and strong cold front cross the region tonight. Occasional rain showers will occur at all sites which could reduce vsbys to MVFR at times. Confidence on thunder at KPOU is too low to include in the TAF at this time. However, if a heavier shower passes through KPOU, a brief period of IFR vsbys could occur. Shower activity will begin to taper off across the region between 08-11z/Thu but additional light precipitation (which could be in the form of rain and/or snow) could occur near KPOU/KPSF after 12z/Thu as another wave of low pressure tracks along the coast. South to southwesterly winds will be in place through this evening, then abruptly shift to the west to northwest behind the cold front, likely between 07-10z/Thu. Wind behind the front will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. These winds will continue through much of Thursday. In addition, periods of LLWS will be possible at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF until the wind shift (7-10z/Thu) as a low level jet passes through (winds at 2000 ft increasing to 40 to 60 kt, strongest over KPOU/KPSF). Surface winds at KALB look to keep this site just under LLWS criteria. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN. Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NYZ032-033-038-039- 041>043-082-083. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...33