283 FXUS61 KALY 241820 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 120 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Light snowfall continues to be expected for late tonight into Wednesday morning, although amounts are expected to be limited in valley areas. Models have trended down regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall for Thursday night into Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A fast moving storm system is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the morning commute. Additional snow showers and squalls later in the day, mainly for areas north and west of the Capital Region, could allow for additional areas of hazardous travel later in the day as well. 2) The potential has decreased for an impactful winter storm for Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A fast moving clipper system is expected to impact the region for late tonight into Wednesday with periods of snowfall. The main surface low will be tracking north of the region across southern Canada and moisture is somewhat limited, but there is still expected to be some minor impacts for much of the area. Southwest flow will be in place aloft ahead of the approaching storm system for tonight. A period of warm advection/isentropic lift will lead to a batch of light to moderate snowfall spreading west to east across the region for late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some downsloping is expected for valley areas, which may limit the amount of snow for the Capital Region, with generally under an inch for the Albany area. However, the southwest flow may allow for some upslope enhancement in the higher terrain of the Catskills, Adirondacks and western New England, so locally higher totals are possible, especially for south and west facing slopes. With this light snowfall expected during the morning hours, the commute will be a little slippery in spots, especially across the high terrain and for untreated surfaces. Behind this initial batch of warm advection, there looks to be a lull for late morning into the early afternoon hours. Temps will be warming into the 30s, especially for valley areas, with mid to upper 30s expected within the storm's warm sector. As the clipper's cold front approaches, there will be another batch of scattered convective-type showers. Most of this will be snow showers, although can't rule out some light rain in valley areas, although the dynamic cooling and precip rate should help generally keep it snow for most of it. Some guidance suggest these showers may be briefly heavy and squall-like, although impacts should be limited, so we are not anticipating a quick flash freeze and wind gusts won't be overly strong. 3KM NAM does some elevated SNSQ parameter values, so it will be something still to monitor. Some isolated to scattered impacts from another round of snow will be possible for the afternoon and evening hours, especially from the Capital Region on north, which will be closer to the best forcing of the upper level shortwave. Behind this departing system, some lake effect may start to develop for Wednesday night in the westerly flow, as colder air works back into the region aloft. Some additional light snow is possible across the western Adirondacks, although activity should push southward and wane towards daybreak Thursday. Have continued to keep a Winter Weather Advisory for the western Adirondacks, as total snowfall from the warm advection, convective snow showers along the cold front and lake effect may be in the 2 to 6 inch range, although the highest totals will likely be across the heavily forested and supercell populated portions of central Herkimer and southwest Hamilton Counties. KEY MESSAGE 2... Nearly all model guidance and most ensembles now show any potential system on Thursday into early Friday will track well south of the region. In addition, guidance suggest there probably won't be a strong area of low pressure, and it will be just a fast moving flat wave. As a result, precip looks to be mainly south of the region, with just a low chance for some light snow across far southern parts of the area. Latest NBM guidance has picked up on this trend and the potential for 1" or more is now under 10 percent for the entire area for Thursday night into Friday. Based on this, this system at this point does not appear it will be having an impact on our area for the late week. While we may avoid winter-impacts with this system, there may be additional system that could bring some wintry-weather early next week, although guidance continues to be very variable on those solutions, so will continue to side close to the NBM guidance at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 12:00 PM EST. Flying conditions this afternoon through 07-09z tonight with SCT mid- level clouds around. Borderline MVFR cigs possible at PSF early this afternoon before clouds scatter out after sunset. Then, a clipper system will bring snow/snow showers to all terminals starting between 07-09z tonight. Mainly IFR vsbys and low-end MVFR cigs expected once snow starts. Snow tapers off early to mid-morning tomorrow, with vsbys improving back to VFR although lingering MVFR cigs expected through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be gusty out of the W/NW this afternoon, diminishing this evening shortly after sunset and backing to the S/SE. Winds generally 5 kt or less overnight up until snow starts. Then, winds will increase to around 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt from the S/SE, continuing through the end of the TAF period. Period of LLWS also expected during the snow late tonight into tomorrow morning as a S/SW low-level jet increases to 35-40 kt. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35