527 FXUS61 KALY 061856 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 156 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The primary changes made during this forecast iteration pertained to tonight's anticipated conditions. The NBM was too low and slow with PoPs for tonight for areas north and east of the Capital District so we added slight chance to chance probabilities in these areas in collaboration with our neighboring offices. Similarly, the weather forecast had to be altered to match and patchy freezing drizzle was added in areas where shallow cold air will become trapped beneath a steep, low-level warm nose. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated slippery travel possible early tomorrow morning in portions of the Southern Adirondacks, Upper-Hudson Valley, Southern Greens, and Eastern Catskills where patchy freezing drizzle is expected overnight tonight. 2) Confidence remains high in a prolonged period of above normal temperatures beginning this weekend and extending into early next week. This in tandem with a few opportunities for rain will promote snow melt, potential river rises, and a subsequent threat of ice jams. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak mid-level shortwave will track north of the region tonight as a low pressure system settles into the Great Lakes at the surface. The warm front associated with this low will also approach the region tonight, providing sufficient low-level forcing to allow patchy to scattered showers/drizzle to develop across portions of the Southern Adirondacks, Upper-Hudson Valley, and Southern Greens in particular. Here, and in even more isolated spots within the Eastern Catskills, upslope flow will enhance forcing for ascent sufficiently to see precipitation reach the surface. For the most part, precipitation will fall as plain rain or drizzle. However, with an anticyclone still parked over the Canadian Maritimes, shallow cold air will sneak in beneath the low-level warm nose (inversion) and force some of this precipitation to be freezing drizzle. Very little accumulation is anticipated given the overall weak forcing and subsequent light precipitation rates resulting from this system, so we held off on Winter Weather Advisories for now. However, we will likely issue a targeted Special Weather Statement later this evening to alert those in these areas of the potential for isolated slick roadways. Scattered showers will become more widespread tomorrow afternoon as the low makes a break for the northeast and nears overhead. And while we will eventually fall into a pseudo-warm sector ahead of the system's cold front, the persistence of a steep, low-level inversion will mitigate any sort of severe thunderstorm threat that our neighbors to the west may be dealing with. That's not to say that we won't see some elevated thunderstorms, particularly for areas to the north and west of Albany where some elevated instability exists, but there is no concern for damage at this time. Additionally, minor rainfall amounts are anticipated throughout the duration of these showers and potential thunderstorms, so no flooding is of concern either. This, and high temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s, will however lead to snowmelt that may runoff into some local rivers and streams and cause minor rises. KEY MESSAGE 2... Some rain lingers into the overnight Saturday, but by Sunday morning, tranquil conditions return across the region. Dry conditions will be met with temperatures continuing to trend above normal, especially as we get into early next week. Confidence remains high in a fairly significant warm up Monday and Tuesday with temperatures rising 2 to nearly 2.5 STDEVs above normal according to the latest NAEFs. Sunday will still feature above-normal temperatures like Saturday, but the magnitude of this warmth will be limited due to the cold advection in the wake of the cold front and any lingering cloud cover as that system departs. Highs will therefore only reach the upper 30s across the highest elevations of the Southern Adirondacks to the upper 50s across the lower Mid- Hudson Valley. Monday and Tuesday, with mainly clear skies, highs will reach the 50s and 60s. Unfortunately, the middle to end of the week may see the return of an unsettled pattern, so high temperatures will trend back closer to normal. Given the extent of this warming trend, and the anticipation for additional chances for rain and possibly some mixed precipitation next week, there will likely be a significant erosion of the current snowpack across eastern New York and western New England. Subsequent run off may contribute to some rising river levels and the addition of rain would only work to worsen the matter. Therefore, we continue to closely monitor trends in the case that these conditions could pose a threat of ice jams and subsequent flooding. It remains challenging to make a determination of whether any flooding will occur let alone exactly where, but we should get a better idea over the coming days by closely monitoring how ice levels on our rivers have been impacted by these warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...Low stratus clouds will persist through the duration of the 24 hour TAF period. Low level moisture will remain trapped beneath a strengthening inversion that will lead to widespread IFR/MVFR cigs this afternoon, lowering to IFR/LIFR levels tonight. Vsby also expected to lower to at least MVFR levels tonight with occasional IFR vsby, although thicker fog is not anticipated due to the low stratus. There is also a chance of drizzle overnight into early Saturday morning, but not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. The LIFR/IFR cigs will likely persist through 18z Saturday, although there should be some improvement in vsby. Winds will be east-southeast around 3-7 kt, becoming southerly and increasing to 4-11 kt Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...07