622 FXUS61 KALY 021047 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 647 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continued the trend of adding Frost tonight into Sunday morning for locations that have started the Frost/Freeze season. Increased winds for tomorrow late morning into the afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost can develop tonight into tomorrow morning across portions of the upper Hudson Valley, where the growing season has begun. 2) A low to moderate risk for fire weather conditions, such as fire spread, could occur Sunday afternoon in portions of eastern New York. 3) Unsettled pattern is expected next week with the potential for both heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms during the mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough continues to be overhead this weekend. Below normal temperatures continue across eastern New York and western New England with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs in the 40s and 50s. Winds tonight into tomorrow morning are going to help limit frost development for the Mid-Hudson Valley, Greater Capital District, and Litchfield Hills regions as a light breeze between 5 and 10 mph is in store. For the Upper Hudson Valley region, which includes Glens Falls and Whitehall, winds will be calm to less than 5 mph. However, a forecast challenge for tonight is the extent of cloud coverage that contributes to the development of frost. The first scenario, which is not favored by the latest forecast, is if clouds continue to be overcast and thick, then frost is unlikely to develop. The second scenario, which is favored by the latest forecast, is if the sky conditions are mostly clear or clouds are thin, then frost will develop. Frost advisories could be needed tonight for Washington and southeast Warren county where forecast confidence is highest for widespread frost (and the growing season has started). Patchy frost could develop in portions of Saratoga and eastern Schenectady counties, but forecast confidence is low at this time due to the light winds. KEY MESSAGE 2... Sunday is looking to be a dry day in store, but breezy with winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph. Continued the trend of increasing winds to the forecast from the deterministic National Blend of Models data as good mixing with upper level winds can occur during the morning and afternoon hours. This is primarily due to the upper level trough moving to the east and exiting the Northeast during the day Sunday. Once the upper level trough exits, winds decrease to less than 20 mph for the early evening hours into Sunday night. Relative humidity values could range during the morning and afternoon hours between 25 and 35 percent. Depending on the partner coordination this afternoon on the conditions of the very fine fuels, fire weather headlines could be issued for a few hours late Sunday morning and afternoon across portions of eastern New York for the drying conditions and low risk for fire spread. KEY MESSAGE 3... Morning Update: No changes to the forecast from yesterday afternoon, see previous discussion below for more details... Previous Discussion: A rather unsettled pattern is expected next week, specifically during the middle of the week. A frontal boundary looks to approach on Tuesday and may wind up stalling over or near the region, as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal zone. There remains some uncertainty exactly where the front may stall, although it does appear that our region will see a warm up ahead of the front, with temperatures rising into the 70s on Tuesday. Some of the AI/ML guidance suggests the potential for some strong storms ahead of the front on Tuesday, although this will ultimately depend on the exact timing and location of the boundary, which is still unknown, as the ensembles are still showing plenty of variability. With repeated rounds of rainfall near the frontal zone, some locally heavy downpours and excessive rainfall can't be ruled out during the mid-week as well. The NBM is already showing a 50-80% chance for 1" of rainfall in total for Tuesday through Thursday, so will continue to monitor model trends. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z/Sun...Rain showers will depart the TAF sites by the beginning of the period. Any lingering MVFR cigs will return to VFR by the midday hours where a few isolated showers could occur, mainly near KGFL. Clearing occurs this evening with continued VFR conditions. Some patchy fog could form at KGFL tonight, especially if it receives a rain shower later today. Wind will become west to northwesterly 6-12 kt today decreasing to 5 kt or less tonight. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27/05 AVIATION...33