439 FXUS61 KALY 211842 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 142 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Strong Nor'Easter still expected to impact the Northeast coast Sunday into Monday with our area on the northern fringe of this system. Winter Storm Warnings issued for southern areas (eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT). Have also issued Winter Weather Advisory for Capital Region due to expected moderate snowfall. Snowfall totals are borderline between advisory and warning levels in southern VT, northern Taconics, Helderbergs and Schoharie County, so have gone with a Watch there for now and will make headline decision as confidence increases closer to the event. For areas where the warning is in effect, heavy snowfall, combined with gusty winds, will make very difficult travel with very low visibility. Some downed trees and power lines are possible for far southern areas due to heavy wet snowfall and gusty winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A high impact Nor'Easter will bring heavy accumulating snowfall and gusty winds for southern parts of the area for Sunday afternoon into Monday, which will result in difficult to impossible travel conditions, very low visibility, and possible downed trees and power lines. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A stalled frontal boundary is currently located over the Deep South. As a wave of low pressure develops along this front, it will lift northeast towards the Southeast coast for tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave over the Great Lakes will be diving southeast for tonight and closing off at 500 hpa. As this upper level energy interacts with the southern stream system, it will cause the surface low to rapidly develop and deepen for Sunday into Sunday night. As the low gets captured, it will slowly track northeast off the coast of the mid Atlantic on Sunday night and will be pass southeast of southern New England for Monday. Models have come into better agreement on the past few days that this system will be bombing out and drop to around a 970 hpa low by Monday afternoon. While there still remains some uncertainty on the exact track, there has been enough confidence to suggest a track close enough to the coast to allow for heavy snowfall to reach inland. At this point, precip looks to spread into the area from south to north on Sunday. Some spotty light snow may break out across the high terrain as early as Sunday morning, but the steadiest snowfall looks to begin on Sunday afternoon and really pick up from south to north on Sunday night. Some banding may occur on the northwest side of the strong storm system with a classic setup for a pivoting band on Sunday night. Most areas will continue to see steady snowfall Monday morning, before it starts to wind down from west to east on Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The heaviest rates are likely on Sunday night into Monday morning, especially for southern areas, where rates within the snowband will likely exceed 1" per hour. With surface temps near freezing and expected strong winds, snow to liquid ratios may be close to climo (around 12:1), although brief higher ratios are certainly possible, especially on Monday. While a few days ago, most models and ensembles suggested little probability of heavy snowfall in our area, there has been a drastic shift and now most guidance suggest heavy snowfall reaching into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT. NBM probability for 8" of snow is 60-90% for those areas and even the 12" probability is 40%-80%. There is even decent support for greater than 18" across the Catskills and NW CT, with probabilities around 40% for those areas. All in all, the guidance that shows impacts are generally showing a big impact. The main uncertainty will on the northern fringe and just how far snowfall (and heavy snowfall) will get. As is typical with coastal Nor'Easters, there is usually a sharp gradient between excessively high totals and little to no snowfall. The January 2016 Blizzard is a similar and classic example, where Poughkeepsie (which was forecasted to receive over a foot of snowfall) saw little snowfall, while Newburgh saw around a foot and NYC was close to two feet. Model guidance (especially blended guidance) usually does a poor job at resolving this and as a result, there will likely be a sharper gradient than what we are currently forecasting at this time. For now, we have forecasted around 4-6" in the Capital Region, with 9+" in the mid Hudson Valley. This may be sharper, although it's still uncertain where that gradient will set up and it's possible that snowfall totals in the Albany area could be higher (or lower). Have gone with an advisory for now in the Capital Region, as model guidance does want to keep the heavier totals further south. However, there is enough support in the guidance for a Watch for the northern Taconics, Helderbergs, Schoharie County and southern VT, as the high terrain and upslope flow could allow for slightly higher totals in the these areas on the northern fringe, allowing for low-end warning level totals, if the northern edge sets up close enough. There is still time to evaluate later guidance and make decisions on these northern areas. WPC WSO suggest a 30-50% chance for warning-level snow across the Capital Region and southern Vermont, although the 50-80% confidence zone is also very close. The other impact with this storm system will be the gusty winds. With such a strong coastal storm, north to northeast winds will be rather strong for late Sunday night into Monday. Some gusts could reach 30-45 mph, especially over the high peaks of the Catskills, southern Greens, Berkshires and in NW CT. In addition to very low visibility within falling snow, some blowing snow may be possible, although the wet nature of the snowfall could reduce this somewhat. Still, these gusts may be high enough to down some tree limbs, resulting in some possible power outages as well, mainly for far southern areas. The main difference between this event and the snowstorm in late January will be that temperatures won't be brutally cold like in that event. Temps will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s during this storm. Still, the gusty winds will make it feel even colder and the near whiteout conditions will be it extremely dangerous for anyone outdoors during an extended period of time during this event. Temps will drop for Monday night in the wake of the storm, with lows down into the single digits and teens by late Monday night. With wind still fairly breezy at that time, wind chill values could approach zero for many areas (especially the high terrain). && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z...Variable flight conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with a persistent low stratus deck overhead and some patchy light snow and drizzle/mist around Albany and Pittsfield. Throughout much of the 18z TAF period, conditions will be MVFR, primarily due to lowered ceilings, though some patchy, light snow showers overnight could drop visibility into the IFR category. These, of course, precede the widespread, stratiform snow that is anticipated tomorrow associated with a potent Nor'Easter, but the onset of this snow will fall outside of the 18z TAF cycle for everyone except potentially KPOU. Winds throughout the period will be northerly to northeasterly at sustained speeds under 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Likely SN...BS. Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Likely SN...BS. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ058>061-063>066. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ047-048-051-054. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ049-050-052-053. MA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...12