931 FXUS61 KALY 230617 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 217 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances have increased for Saturday, as low pressure is now expected to track closer to the area. The best likelihood of rain looks to be for areas south and west of Albany. Some wet snow is expected to mix in at times across the highest elevations of the eastern Catskills Saturday into Saturday night. Minor accumulations may occur at elevations > 2500 ft. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of dry and breezy conditions today will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread, especially for the Upper Hudson Valley and lower elevations of southern Vermont. 2) Rain becoming more likely on Saturday, especially south and west of Albany. Some of the precipitation could fall as wet snow in the highest elevations of the eastern Catskills. More showers expected Tuesday into Tuesday night with an approaching frontal system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... There will be an elevated risk of fire spread today, particularly across the Upper Hudson Valley and lower elevations of southern Vermont where a Special Weather Statement remains in effect. This is due to a combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds. RH values are expected to drop into the 20-30% range this afternoon along with northwest winds gusting to 20-25 mph as deeper mixing develops in an increasingly dry environment. Fuels are most receptive in areas where the Special Weather Statement is in effect via coordination with state officials. Localized fire weather concerns are possible across other valley areas as well. Dry conditions will persist on Friday, with minimum RH values expected to be in the 20-30% range across much of the area. However, winds will be lighter with only occasional gusts of 10-15 mph. So there are lesser concerns for fire spread Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Most of the global guidance and ensembles have shifted the track of a wave of low pressure Saturday moving from the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic region farther north and west compared to prior forecasts. This is due to a shift in the overall blocking pattern. Regional guidance (NAM/RGEM) has not shifted much yet though, so there is not universal agreement. However, there is enough confidence to increase PoPs to likely (60-70%) for areas south/west of the Capital District, with chance PoPs (30-50%) across much of the rest of the area on Sat. The forecast has also trended cooler and cloudier. Highs only expected to reach the 40s to mid 50s. The other change is with steady precip now anticipated, there could be enough cooling of the column for wet snow to mix in at times across the highest elevations (> 2500 ft) of the E. Catskills especially during the diurnally favored cooler times. Have introduced minor snow accumulations up to an inch in these isolated areas. The next chance of showers looks to arrive in the Tue to Tue night timeframe associated with a frontal system approaching from the west. At this time the system looks progressive, so heavy rain is not anticipated. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z Friday...Clearing clouds tonight will result in few high clouds and SKC for most terminals however light overnight winds, and lingering low level moisture plus radiational cooling will likely support patchy fog at all the terminals from the start of the TAF period to just after sunrise (about 12z). This could result in VFR conditions deteriorating to MVFR vis at KALB and KPOU. KGFL and KPSF have a better chance of seeing flight conditions lower to IFR vis and which will prevail at KGFL. These are shown with TEMPO groups. Fog will burn off shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions returning by 12-14z. Mid level clouds will begin to move back in towards sunset tonight. Winds tonight are calm with KALB light and variable. By daybreak winds from the northwest will be around 5 kt and become quite breezy by 16z with sustained speeds 8-13 kt and gusts reaching 25 kt. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...53