572 FXUS61 KALY 111055 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 655 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased winds/wind gusts and lowered dewpoints for this afternoon. Also increased cloud coverage through this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Elevated risk for fire spread late this morning into this afternoon, with the greatest risk for areas mainly south and east of Albany. 2. Isolated rain/snow showers this morning across portions of the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, otherwise mainly dry through Sunday morning before showers develop Sunday afternoon for areas mainly north of I-90. 3. Well above normal temperatures arrive for the early to middle portions of next week, along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty west to northwest winds to develop and continue through this afternoon, with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible within the Mohawk Valley, Berkshires, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. In addition, as mixing deepens, RH values are expected to drop to 30-40 percent for portions of the Hudson River Valley mainly from the Capital Region south, as well as across western MA/NW CT. Despite some light rainfall, fine fuels remain conducive for fire spread given the gusty winds and low RH later this morning through this afternoon for areas near the Capital Region and points south and east, where a Special Weather Statement is in effect until 6 PM for elevated risk of fire spread. Farther north and west, RH values will be higher, and also more rainfall occurred mitigating fine fuels somewhat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Upper trough will move east of the region this morning. However, cyclonic flow in its wake along with cold air aloft will promote areas of clouds and isolated rain showers across portions of the Mohawk Valley and possibly Capital Region this morning, with isolated rain/snow showers possible across the southern Adirondacks. Any light showers should end by sunset, with mainly dry conditions then expected through at least Sunday morning. An approaching warm front will then allow showers to develop Sunday afternoon for areas mainly north of I-90. KEY MESSAGE 3... Aforementioned warm front will move across the region Sunday night into Monday before stalling just north of the region. Waves of low pressure are then expected to track along the boundary, and allow the front to occasionally oscillate southward through mid week. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the waves of low pressure and associated upper level disturbances tracking along/near the front, with best chances mainly near and north of I-90. Will have to watch for any stronger thunderstorm potential H500 winds 40-50 KT and increasing MU CAPES. 01Z/Sat NBM Probs for SB CAPE >1000 J/kg are relatively low, at 10-20% within the Hudson River Valley Wednesday, however similar probs for SB CAPES >500 J/kg are 30-50% Tuesday afternoon, and 40-60% Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, above normal temperatures are likely for most of next week. Depending on where the front sets up, and how much sunshine prevails, some areas could reach the 70s and even 80s, with the best chance for widespread 70s/80s occurring on Wednesday as the front potentially lifts just north of the region. 01Z/Sat NBM probs for 24-hour max temps >75 F are 60-90% for all areas outside the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT on Wed, supporting the idea of most widespread warmth occurring on this day. In fact, similar probs Wed for max temps >80 F are 40-80% across the Hudson River Valley (greatest across the mid Hudson Valley) and 20-50% within the Mohawk Valley. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z/Sun, MVFR/IFR Cigs through this morning at KPSF, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite occasional Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL through late morning. West to northwest winds will increase to 8-15 KT with occasional gusts of 25-30 KT through today, with strongest/most persistent gusts at KALB and KPSF. West/northwest winds decrease to 5-10 KT shortly after sunset, then become light/variable after midnight. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/17 AVIATION...53/24