690 FXUS61 KALY 221019 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 619 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool, cloudy conditions today with scattered showers tapering off this afternoon. Additional chances for showers on Saturday, mainly south and west of Albany, although forecast confidence is low. 2) The combination of dry and breezy conditions on Thursday may lead to an elevated risk for fire spread. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... With a warm front positioned to the south/west of our region, isentropic lift to the north/east of the boundary will result in some showers across much of the area this morning into early afternoon. Radar indicating scattered showers moving in from the west, although surface dewpoint depressions are between 10-20 degrees so there is likely more virga than precip reaching the ground at the moment. As the column moistens, more precip should reach the ground into this morning. Expecting mainly scattered coverage except more numerous from around Kingston south. Precip could fall as a rain/snow mix in some higher terrain areas in the S. Greens and Berkshires, but amounts will be light with only a coating on some grassy surfaces. Precip will taper off from west to east this afternoon as isentropic lift dissipates. With the warm front not advancing north though, we will be stuck in a cool/cloudy regime through the day. Highs will only reach the lower 40s to lower 50s, with the coolest temperatures east of the Hudson Valley and in the mountains. The next chance of showers looks to be on Saturday, as a weak wave of low pressure is expected to track SE from the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic region. Our area should be along the NE periphery of this system with an omega block pattern potentially keeping much of our area dry, as the best forcing/moisture may be south/west. Will stick to NBM PoPs for now with 25-35% for areas south/west of the Capital District and < 15% north/east. Will continue to monitor trends over the next few days, as a shift in the blocking pattern could result in the track of the wave shifting. KEY MESSAGE 2... There continues to be the potential for an elevated risk of fire spread on Thursday, due to a combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds. Not much has changed in the forecast, with RH values expected to drop into the 28-38% range during the afternoon along with northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph as the pressure gradient increases. These values look to fall short of red flag thresholds, but a Special Weather Statement may be needed depending on if fuels become receptive. There will be some light rain showers and cloudy skies today, although skies will turn mostly sunny on Thursday. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Thursday...As of 6:20 AM EDT...Mainly VFR flying conditions at this time, although there have been some periods of MVFR stratus around 2000 ft at POU within the last hour. Scattered showers remain across the region this morning, but not seeing much in the way of vsby restrictions within showers. Showers dissipate by mid to late morning. However, we will see a trend down to mainly MVFR cigs through much of the day as a warm front stalls to our southwest. Have slowed down onset of MVFR slightly from previous TAF issuance based on latest trends this morning. Winds today will be mainly around 10 kt from the S/SE with gust to around 20 kt. Tonight, low-level moisture remains but winds weaken to 5 kt or less after sunset, becoming light and variable after 04-06z. This will allow cloud bases to lower, although there remains some uncertainty in how widespread cloud cover will be. Should cigs remain BKN to OVC, will likely see IFR stratus develop tonight, but if there are more breaks in the clouds then would expect fog/mist to develop with IFR to LIFR vsbys possible. Low forecast confidence at this point, so will need to refine the forecast with subsequent TAF issuances. Outlook... Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...35