541 FXUS61 KALY 081807 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 207 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted cloud cover and dewpoints for this afternoon to match trends in observations and satellite imagery. While a few light rain showers are possible over the next few hours, dewpoints have still been running lower than forecasted values from the NBM. Will keep skies mostly cloudy for next few hours with isolated to scattered showers, but allow for more clearing by this evening. With clearing skies, some patchy/areas of frost expected for the Upper Hudson Valley near Glens Falls. With last night's lows falling close to freezing, will expect similar values again tonight, so will go with a Frost Advisory for this area. Adjusted POPs slightly for Saturday night through Sunday evening to account for slow moving frontal boundary moving west to east across the region. While rainfall amounts look fairly light, have tried to time precip potential during this period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized areas of frost expected tonight across the upper Hudson Valley due to low temperatures in the middle 30s. 2) Unsettled pattern this weekend into early next week along with periods of showers and mainly below normal temperatures, but no hydrologic impacts expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Although there are a few spotty showers and fairly widespread clouds this afternoon, there should be decent clearing expected this evening as an upper level disturbance exits to the east. Once clouds exit this evening, winds will be diminishing with the loss of daytime mixing and temperatures should fall quickly. Similar to last night, lows look to reach the mid 30s in the Upper Hudson Valley near Glens Falls, which should promote the development of patchy/areas of frost. With the growing season underway, sensitive and tender vegetation could be damaged by frost and protective measures should be taken to ensure the safety of the young plants. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Washington, SE Warren and Northern Saratoga Counties for late tonight. As the next disturbance approaches, clouds will increase from south to north for the late night hours, as insentropic lift increases. This should allow temps to hold steady or slightly rise towards daybreak, ending the threat for frost around 7 AM or so. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another period of steady light rainfall is expected for Saturday, especially in the morning, as another upper level disturbance lifts across the region from the southwest. An area of low pressure, aided by isentropic lift/warm advection, will allow for an area of steady light rain to lift northeast across the region for Saturday morning from southwest to northeast. The Capital Region will be on the northwest edge of this precip, with less potential for rainfall further north and west. However, areas from the Capital Region on south and east look to see several hours of steady light rainfall, with a tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall expected for Saturday, which precip winding down in the afternoon hours from west to east. With the clouds and precip, temps will be held down into the 40s and 50s. More wet weather is expected thanks to an approaching cold front, which will be on the leading edge of a large upper level trough for late Saturday night through Sunday evening. This front will slowly move from west to east across the region. While the Adirondacks will see the best chance for showers on Sat night, the rest of the region will see a period of showers for Sunday into Sunday evening along the boundary. The steadiest precip may be Sunday evening into Sunday night for far southeastern areas as a wave develops along the front, but it's still unclear if this steadiest rainfall will be in our just southeast of our area for Sunday night. Total rainfall amounts don't look excessive, so no hydrologic impacts are expected and with limited instability in place, there doesn't appear to be much potential for thunderstorms at this time as well. Temps will be slightly milder ahead of the front with some breaks of sun and Mother's Day highs will likely be in the 60s for many spots. However, temps look to cool down behind the front for early next week, with temps back down into the 50s once again for Monday and Tuesday. Although the upper level trough will be overhead for early next week and cool temps will be in place, moisture looks limited, so there probably won't be much additional precip at this time with a partly to mostly sunny sky in place each day. Temperatures will then moderate for the rest of the week, but some additional chances for precip look to occur, with an active weather pattern remaining in place. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z/Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail across some of the sites this afternoon even with some isolated light showers over the next few hours. The probability of these showers reaching the ground at the terminals remains low. The best chance of rain reaching the ground is at KPSF which if occurs, could lower cigs to MVFR but this probability is still low so it is mentioned in a PROB30. KGFL will remain dry this afternoon. Cigs will begin to dissipate into the first half of the overnight with some brief clearing at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF around 01z. Clouds will then begin to increase once again as the next frontal system and upper level disturbance approaches. This will bring thick stratiform clouds and more widespread and light to moderate rainfall to the region starting 06z-13z tonight into tomorrow morning moving from southwest to northeast. KPOU will have cigs and vis lowered to MVFR first at 06z with the rest of the terminals lowering to MVFR at or just after sunrise (12/13z). IFR and LIFR is then very likely mid morning (14z- 16z) across the region and through the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy this afternoon from the southwest 10-15 kt with occasional stronger gusts around 20 kt. Winds then decrease into the evening becoming light and variable under 5 kt. With the approaching warm front winds begin to pick back up again with sunrise with sustained speeds 5-10 kt and shift out of the southeast. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...53