030 FXUS61 KALY 280609 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 109 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased consistency in model guidance has led to further refinement in precipitation chances this morning and early afternoon with a cold front passage. While the highest probabilities (60-80%) remain mainly in the ADKs, areas to the south and east will have a low chance (20-50%) of a rain or snow shower. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A brief warmup remains on tap for today, with temperatures falling back below normal early next week with a cold front passage. Light snow is expected tonight into Sunday with the front and colder temperatures. 2. Continue to monitor potential for accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix for portions of the region Tuesday, Wednesday and later next week. Forecast confidence remains low at this time on exact precipitation amounts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Early morning satellite and surface analysis showed a cold front draped across the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of this front, high pressure centered just off the East Coast was providing dry conditions and southerly flow across eastern NY and western New England. Going through today, this cold front will continue to work its way east into the region, arriving across the Mohawk Valley and western ADKs by late morning into early afternoon. Rain and snow showers are expected to accompany the front, with coverage most favored mainly across the aforementioned zones nearer to the best lift (which will be focused mainly north of the international border). Regardless, some CAMs show low chances (20-50%) of some rain/snow showers making it south to the Interstate 90 corridor and Capital District. Any precipitation or snow amounts will be light. Outside of this, most will enjoy partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures moderating well into the 30s (terrain) and 40s to near 50 (valleys). As the cold front settles just south of the region, a strong push of CVA from the northwest will promote development of weak surface low along the front across the Ohio River Valley. This low will move northeast along the front, ushering in moisture and lift across the region. With CAA behind the front and strengthening northwest flow, temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be primarily snow (some mix may be seen across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley) for most. Snow amounts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with the latest NBM favoring a widespread 1-3". Some CAMs, most notably the HRRR and RRFS, show higher amounts with more QPF initialized, though they look to be outliers at this time. The higher end of snow amounts are favored along and south of the Interstate 88/90 corridors into the Berkshires per latest NBM probabilities (50-70% of amounts > 1" here), though some localized higher amounts will be possible across the higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern ADKs. Still, amounts remain favored to be sub-advisory, although some locally slick travel is expected on Sunday morning, especially for high terrain areas and untreated surfaces. Once precipitation exits the area late Sunday afternoon and evening, strong high pressure will build into the region and will keep us dry through early next week. It will be rather cold though with 925-850 hPa temperatures falling as low as -15 to -20 C. This will translate to lows Sunday and Monday night into the single digits to well below zero (high terrain), and highs Monday ranging from the teens (terrain) to mid 20s (valleys). KEY MESSAGE 2... As has been advertised in previous AFDs, we continue to monitor a change to a more active weather regime beginning mid next week. Our first system will be arrive in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe, as a warm front and jet streak aloft increase lift and moisture across the region. Initially, all snow looks to be favored, with a transition to a wintry mix and rain, especially across our southern zones. Latest NBM continues to advertise high chances (70- 100%) of precipitation for the area as model-to-model consistency gets better on storm placement. However, there remains inconsistency on snow amounts due to differences on the exact warm front placement, so confidence on this front remains low. However, as mentioned in the previous AFD, enough wintry precip for slippery travel is possible, especially for northern areas. Another system will follow on the heels of the Tuesday/Wednesday system for later in the week, though this one may feature more rain than snow for the region as thermal profiles look to be near to above freezing. Regardless, given this is far out, additional changes to this period are expected. Confidence is high for a trend more to above normal temperatures, as is indicated in the CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...SKC conditions continue at all terminals at the start of this TAF cycle with the latest high res guidance showing VFR conditions continuing through 12 UTC so updated TAFs to remove IFR mention tonight. Latest satellite imagery shows our disturbance upstream tracking through Michigan and as its warm front lifts through late this morning, low and mid-level clouds look to overspread the terminals. Given overall weak forcing and moisture, only show PROB30 groups for MVFR vis from rain/snow showers at GFL as showers track overspread mainly from 15 - 18 UTC. Then, we should have a brief break for dry weather albeit low and mid-level clouds lingering overhead before its associated cold front marches eastward late this afternoon. Included another PROB30 group at PSF for showers 21 to 00 UTC and MVFR cigs as this boundary tracks eastward. Then, after this boundary exits into New England by 00 UTC/01, still expecting a quick trend back to VFR at all terminals. Light and variable winds at GFL and POU tonight with southeasterly winds remaining near 5-9 kt at ALB. We continue to message LLWS developing at GFL, ALB and PSF by 10-12 UTC as winds at 2000ft increase to 35-40kts. Then, southeasterly winds increase at all terminals by 14-15 UTC with sustained winds 5-10kts and gusts up to 15-20kts, likely ending the LLWS potential. Winds then shift to the west-southwest by 20-22 UTC at all terminals in the wake of our cold front with sustained winds becoming breezy for a short period reaching 8-12kts and gusts up to 15kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...31