269 FXUS61 KALY 231144 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 644 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The storm track has shifted further south and east that some changes are needed with the winter head lines with lighter snow amounts expected especially from the Capital District north and west. The powerful Nor'easter is expected to track southeast of the 40/70 benchmark shifting the snowfall gradient further south/southeast of the Capital District. The Winter Weather Advisories for northern Saratoga, Fulton, Montgomery, southern Washington have been canceled with snow accums of a dusting to a few inches only expected now. The Winter Storm Warnings for the Capital District, Schoharie Valley, northern Catskills and Helderbergs has been downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories for lower snow amounts. The Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place south and east of the Capital District. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A powerful Nor'Easter continues to bring moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall and strong winds to parts of the area today, which will result in difficult to impossible travel conditions, blizzard conditions in Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, and possible downed trees and power lines. 2) A clipper type low is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the commute. 3) Another storm system potentially could bring light to moderate amounts of accumulating snow or a wintry mix Thursday into early Friday with some uncertainty with the track and timing of the system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Bombogenesis continues to occur with the coastal low early this morning southeast of NJ with the latest RAP MSLP of 984 hPa. The storm will continue to track northeast and be southeast of the 40/70 benchmark this morning. The low is expected to deepen to close to 970 hPa in the late morning/early pm. The mid and upper level trough has become become negatively tilted near the Delmarva region with the H500 circulation closing off. The track slightly further south and east has hurt the north and west expansion of the snow shield in the ALY forecast area. This trend started with the 12Z and 18Z guidance yesterday and continues with the 00Z CAMS/Ensembles/NBM/deterministic NWP guidance. Pivoting snowbands have developed in the northwest quadrant of the potent storm beneath the upper jet dynamics per the CSTAR cool season research. The bands have impacted the mid Hudson valley, southern Berkshires and NW CT this morning with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. Some of the Atlantic moisture has made it as far north as the Greater Capital Region, northern Taconics and southern VT. The latest HREFs shows the best chance for snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hr from the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, north-central Taconics and Berkshires south and east until the late morning. The 1"/hr probabilities range from 30-80%. The highest probabilities are across northwest CT. Snowfall totals were reduced to a dusting to two inches over the northern Saratoga Region, southern Washington Co. and the west- central Mohawk Valley and we dropped the Winter Wx Advisories. The extreme southeast corner of southeast Washington County could get 2-3" or so, but easterly downsloping could hurt the amounts. The Capital District, Schoharie Valley, northern Catskills and the Helderbergs were downgraded to an advisory with the shift in the track and the best banding staying south and east of the region. Snow amounts will range from 2-6" with maybe a few higher amounts near the Helderbergs. The Tri Cities will likely see only 2-4". It was tricky what to do in southern VT and eastern Rensselaer County with the sharp snowfall gradient. The higher terrain of Bennington County could still get 7" or more, and the eastern slopes should still get 5-10". The westerly upslope with the low pulling away from southeast New England could benefit the northern Taconics and Bennington county in the late morning/pm. We stayed with the warnings in these areas. We will have to watch for how efficient the mid and upper level deformation snowfall is and local convergence or even a brief period of Mohawk-Hudson Convergence could help snow totals later today. The major impacts from the storm will be for locations south of I-90 and the Capital Region. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will continue with the winds increasing from the north/northeast at 15-25 mph with with gusts 30-40 mph...and even some gust 40-50 mph over the Berkshires and southeast Catskills. Blizzard conditions will continue to be possible for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. Blizzard conditons are 3 consecutive hours of falling or blowing snow with sustained or frequent gusts 35 mph with reduced visibilities of 1/4SM or less. The best chance for blizzard conditions are for these 3 counties. Greene, Columbia and Berkshire counties may have near blizzard conditions at times. Our updated forecast lowered totals slightly over the eastern Catskills to 8-12" with some high peaks 12-18" with the track shift. 8-12" is will also become more common for eastern Greene, Columbia and northern Berkshire counties. The sweet spot for the storm will continue to be the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, southern Berkshires and Litchfield County in NW CT with 12-18" of snow. Some isolated amounts over 18" are possible in the Litchfield Hills. The heavy snow will persist most of the morning, and start to taper in the early to mid afternoon. The latest CAMs (3-km HRRR and Namnest) supported these trends. In fact, the headlines may be dropped a little earlier west of the Hudson River Valley (early pm) with the eastern zones in the mid to late pm. The blowing and drifting snow support holding the winter headlines until 7 pm for now. Highs today will be in the 20s to lower 30s with the strong gusty north to northeast winds which will shift to the northwest in the pm to evening at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph. Lows fall back into the single digits and teens with some below zero readings over the southern Dacks. Wind chills tonight will be from the lower single digits to 10 to 15F below zero over the higher terrain. The blizzard conditions and heavy snow will result in dangerous whiteout and impossible travel conditions today. The strong winds should keep patchy to areas of blowing snow into tonight. The wetter snow south of Albany, combined with the gusty winds, may result in some downed tree limbs and possible power outages as well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Tuesday will be a colder than normal day with arctic high pressure building in. Max temps will run close to 15 degrees below normal with highs in the teens over the higher terrain and mainly 20s in the major valleys. Clouds thicken and lower ahead of a clipper and its warm front. The isentropic lift increases for snow to break out Tue night. The southwest Adirondacks could see an uptick in the snowfall with the south to southwest winds off the mountains. Low-level moisture looks limited but a widespread 1-3" snowfall looks possible, as the clipper low moves over the region on Wed. Some locally higher amounts are possible for the southern Greens and southwest Dacks. Boundary layer temps warm in to the mid and upper 30s in the valleys Wed pm before the cold front and wave move through in the afternoon and evening. Some slippery conditions are possible during the morning commute on Wed with the light snow accums of a few tenths to a few inches. KEY MESSAGE 3... Active pattern continues with the next system expected to affect the area late Thu into early Fri. This system looks to be progressive with an open wave aloft. Guidance has trended south with the storm track, which generally places our area on the colder side. There are some ensemble members(mainly GFS) that indicate a track over our area, but most of the deterministic, ensemble and AI guidance is showing a colder solution with the surface cyclone passing by to the south/east of our region. Went close to NBM for now, which has likely PoPs for areas south/east of Albany and chance PoPs north/west. Will mention snow as main precip type for the official forecast, although there would be a chance of some sort of wintry mix if the storm track shifts north. Due to the progressive/quick movement of this system, light to moderate QPF is expected. Latest NBM 24-hour probabilities indicate a 40-60% chance for > 2" of snow and a 25-50% chance for > 4" of snow. Will continue to monitor trends as this system could result in winter driving impacts for the Fri morning commute. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z Tuesday...Strengthening Nor'easter continues to bring snow to most of the TAF sites this morning. The worst conditions will continue be at KPOU/KPSF where IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail for the first 6-8 hours of the TAF period. While occasional IFR vsby will occur at KALB through around 15z, there will also likely be some periods of MVFR as well. KGFL should remain VFR, with brief periods of MVFR possible so will only mention PROB30 there as most of the snow will remain south/east. Snow is expected to taper off from west to east around 18z-20z, with conditions improving to mainly VFR. However, blowing snow will lower vsby at KPOU/KPSF after the snow ends this afternoon, with mainly MVFR vsby. VFR conditions should return at all sites tonight. Winds today will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt from this morning through the daylight hours. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ054- 058>061. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ047>053. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...07/15 AVIATION...07