334 FXUS61 KALY 241041 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 641 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures Thursday night into early Friday morning as there is increasing confidence that cold air arrives quickly behind a cold front sweeping through the Northeast. There is a low to medium chance for rain to briefly change to rain/snow mix or even wet snow in the southwest Adirondacks and southern VT before ending early Friday with a low chance for very light snow accumulations. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low probabilities for impactful weather over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After benign and seasonable weather today and tomorrow, our attention turns to Wednesday night through Friday. Overrunning from an approaching warm front Wednesday night will lead to scattered rain showers with even rain/snow mix in the southwest Adirondacks and southern VT. Then, increasing confidence for above normal temperatures on Thursday as the warm sector surges northeastward with a 50 to 90% chance for temperatures at or above 60F across eastern NY and western New England outside of southern VT and the southwest Adirondacks. However, the warm-up is short-lived as strong height falls ahead of a trough coincident with a sfc cold front sliding east of the Great Lakes will result in a period of rain late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 50 to 75% chance for at least 0.25" of precipitation (mainly rain) in the 24 hr period ending 8AM Friday for much of eastern NY and western New England. While there are hints of weak elevated instability and steeper lapse rates from the Ohio Valley streaming into eastern NY Thursday night, thunder was left out of the forecast given low confidence. Otherwise, a notable wind shift to the north- northwest immediately behind the boundary likely results in a quick temperature drop late Thursday night into early Friday from northwest to southeast. Depending on how much moisture and showers linger once sufficient low-level cold air advection kicks in will determine if showers can mix with or even change to wet snow before ending early Friday. While there are still some timing discrepancies, latest probabilistic guidance shows only a 5 to 15% chance for at least 0.5" of snow limited to the southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. This shows even if there is a changeover to snow early Friday, slippery travel impacts will remain minimal. Below normal temperatures then persist Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...High pressure building in from the west will result in continued VFR conditions. Mainly high level clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching disturbance, but cigs will remain at or above 15 kft AGL with no precipitation. Winds will initially be northwest around 3-7 kt, becoming west-southwest at 5-10 kt this afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...07