650 FXUS61 KALY 291843 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 243 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood Watch continues for western New England, and eastern NY excluding the southern Adirondacks, west-central Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County until 8 pm for possible flash flooding some small streams creeks and areal river flooding. Some changes to hourly PoPs/weather with only a slight chance of thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon into early tonight. Additional rainfall in the watch area a half an inch to two inches with some locally higher amounts along and east of Catskills, the southern Greens and the northern Berkshires. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Bands of showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain into early this evening, especially in the Flood Watch area north and west of the mid Hudson Valley. Poor drainage/urban areas will be most susceptible to potential sustained flooding/flash flooding into tonight. 2) Some isolated to scattered main stem river flooding will continue this afternoon into tonight on the Schoharie and Esopus Creeks, as well as the Hoosic Rivers. 3) Drier weather returns Friday into Saturday with seasonal temps by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An impressive late July rain storm continues across NY and New England. A closed/cutoff low continues to impact eastern NY and western New England with bands of stratiform rainfall with isolated embedded t-storms possible. Double-barrel low pressure system with one low over southern/eastern NY and a coastal low near Long Island. Deep fetch of moisture continues from the Atlantic and Gulf with PWAT anomalies 2 to 3 STDEVs above normal in the 1.5-1.7" range in the SPS RAP meso-analysis. Multiple embedded vortices are impacting the forecast area with one recently moved through the western Mohawk Valley, and another moving over the Capital Region with a third moving into NW CT and western MA. Periods of rain will continue with rainfall rates mainly 0.1-0.5"/hr though closer to the heavier bands, some 0.5-1.0"/hr may briefly occur. Warm rainfall efficient processes continue in the deformation zone with high freezing levels 12-13 kft AGL. Training rainfall echoes will also yield additional flash flooding/flooding in spots. An additional 0.5"-2.0" of rainfall is possible in the Flood Watch area...and some localized amounts to 3" or so are possible along the east facing slopes of the eastern Catskills, southern Greens and Berkshires. Rainfall totals in the Capital Region/Saratoga Region, upper Mid Hudson Valley, northern Taconics, Helderbergs, and the eastern Catskills have received 4-11" of rainfall with 11.03" of rainfall in the NYS mesonet at Schodack and 10.69" at Kinderhook as of 2 pm. This rainfall has fallen in the last 24-30 hours. The Albany Airport has a rainfall total of 5.95" over the past 30 hours since 8 am yesterday until 2 pm, which is a very high amount for any rainfall event. The Flood Watch will remain up until 8 pm/00Z. We want to keep it up for the afternoon/evening commute. Ponding of water on roadways, poor drainage flooding of low-lying and urban areas, and some road washouts may continue. Highs today were mainly in the 60s, except for some lower to mid 70s over the mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics, where the rain let up with a few break in the clouds. Some drier air may feed into the storm system, as the showers will lighten in intensity tonight and become more scattered across portions of the region. Patchy fog may occur in some locations. Lows will be mainly in the 50s to around 60F in a few spots. KEY MESSAGE 2... Some minor to low end moderate river flooding continues to occur on the Esopus Creek at Mt Tremper/Cold Brook and Mt Marion. This is due to the rainfall of 4-9+" and run-off in the basins. Mt Tremper looks to have crested and these points could fall below flood stage by the late afternoon/early evening. Some additional minor/moderate flooding continues on the Schoharie Creek at Prattsville, Gilboa Bridge, and Breakabeen. We are monitoring the potential for minor flooding at Burtonsville. We continue a Flood Warning for minor flooding at Williamstown on the Hoosic River and potentially Eagle Bridge in Rensselaer Co. Minor flooding of small streams and creeks continuing across portions of the Capital Region/Upper Mid Hudson Valley/eastern Catskills/Helderbergs and the eastern Mohawk Valley. The rivers/streams will continue to crest late this afternoon through tonight. Any additional flooding on the main stem rivers will depend where additional heavy rain occurs. We continue to carefully monitor rivers and streams in western New England where the heaviest rain may occur into tonight. KEY MESSAGE 3... The low pressure system and the mid and upper low slowly moves east of the region on Thu. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible with lighter rainfall amounts. Temps will still run below normal with partly to mostly cloudy skies. High pressure begins to build in from the west/northwest from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Region for Friday with mainly dry conditions aside from an isolated pop-up shower/thunderstorm over the western New England higher terrain and the eastern Adirondacks. Max temps will rise back into the 70s to lower 80s with moderate humidity levels with dewpoints in the 60s. The first day of August will feature typical summertime warmth and humidity on Saturday with temps 80-85F in the valleys...and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns with dry conditions. The drier weather should allow for streams, creeks and rivers to recede into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18z/Thu...A steady rain continues to fall at KALB/KGFL/KPSF this afternoon and will persist into tonight with widespread IFR/MVFR conditions. Later tonight, rain will begin to transition to scattered showers at these sites but low ceilings are expected to continue. At KPOU, the steadiest rain is north of the TAF site but isolated to scattered showers will be possible there this afternoon through tonight with some reductions to MVFR at times. Light isolated to widely scattered showers will continue Thursday morning with cigs remaining mixed IFR/MVFR. Winds will be mainly north to northwesterly 5-10 kt through the upcoming period. Outlook... Thursday Night to Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...CHC TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...CHC TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041>043-048>054- 058>061-063>066-083-084. MA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...33