028 FXUS61 KALY 080134 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 40. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT SECTION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER TO UPPER 60S MONDAY. AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT 2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET. THE REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA. TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST. KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT. KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT. AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX. TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY. WED-THU...VFR...NO WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...KL/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...KL/ELH HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS