171 FXUS61 KALY 142014 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 414 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Ended winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Marginal risk (level 1 to 5) in the Day 3 Convective Outlook from SPC shifted slightly eastward and now includes parts of the eastern and northern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley for Monday/Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a low to medium chance for gusty west to northwesterly reaching up to 50mph through early evening today in the Greater Capital District, western MA, Mohawk Valley, and northern/eastern Catskills to result in downed tree branches. 2) Increasing confidence for strong winds, mild temperatures and areas of showers on Monday before an impressive cold front ushers in a period of moderate to locally heavy rain Monday night. There is a low chance for renewed minor river flooding in parts of western New England into Tuesday. 3) With quickly falling temperatures in the wake of a cold front Monday night, there is a low to medium chance for rain to changeover to snow with a 40 to 80% chance for at least 1 inch of snow from the Greater Capital District north and west by 8AM Tuesday. Strong gusty winds continue into Tuesday with a 40 to 75% chance for gusts to exceed 40mph. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Sfc low departing into the Canadian Maritimes today with high building into western NY/PA has led to a tightening pressure gradient over eastern NY and western New England. This has led to gusty west to northwest winds as winds in the 925 - 850hPa layer range 30 to 45kts and cold air advection has supported deep boundary layer (as seen in the 12 UTC ALY sounding). Stratocumulus clouds has mitigated persistent gusts over the 46mph wind advisory criteria but a few isolated latest satellite imagery shows breaks of sun mainly south of Capital District which has supported gusts up to 40 - 45 mph with the Albany Airport briefly reaching up to 50 mph. Will maintain the wind advisory for gusts up to 50mph through 6pm but latest 13 UTC NBM probabilistic guidance shows generally near or under 20% chance for gusts over 40mph so wind gusts over 40mph should be brief and isolated. The gusty winds can lead to isolated or scattered downed tree branches but the lack of leaves on the trees should mitigate more significant impacts. Winds gradually weaken this evening but remain breezy through about 03 UTC. KEY MESSAGE 2... A rapidly deepening upper level shortwave in the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday will evolve into a cut-off low and a nearly full latitude trough that extends near the Gulf Coast states. Southerly winds ahead of the cut-off low will strengthen impressively Sunday night into Monday with v-componet anomalies reaching 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal per the ENS standardized anomalies. This includes a notable jet in the 850 to 700 hPa layer directing moisture out of the Gulf into the Northeast with PWATs reaching 1 - 1.5" or 3 to 4 standardized anomalies above normal. This moisture rich and mild air mass will spread into the Northeast Sunday night as a warm front lifts northward. A few embedded shortwaves should support additional lift and with pockets of weak elevated instability, expecting areas of showers to track through the region overnight into early Monday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, sfc temperatures in the southern Greens near freezing may support brief freezing rain potential Sunday night but with temperatures warming overnight, any impacts should be minimal. Best chance for some rumbles of thunder looks to be in NW CT where MUCAPE values range 100 - 200 J/kg and lapse rates in the 850 - 500 hPa layer reaching 6 to 6.5". This can support pockets of moderate rainfall rates during any convection. The very impressive low and mid-level southerly jet will be directed overhead during the day Monday with southeasterly sfc winds likely turning breezy; however, with forecast soundings in good agreement for a low- level inversion to in place, latest probabilistic guidance shows the potential for gusts to exceed 40mph between 2AM Monday and 2AM Tuesday to be mainly focused in the Capital District, western New England and in the Taconics where values range 50 to 75%. Western New England and the Taconics are especially notorious for observing gusty winds in southeast flow environments as winds downslope of the Berkshires and southern Greens. Should confidence increase, wind advisory will likely be needed. Otherwise, Monday will be quite mild with at least a 75% chance for temperatures to exceed 60 outside of the southern Adirondacks. Scattered showers likely track through the area during the day Monday, especially east of the Hudson, but the strongest height falls will hold off until Monday evening when the main trough axis approaches with the trough even taking on a negative tilt. The strongest height falls will coincide with the arrival of main sfc cold front with the high moisture transport and low-level convergence focusing moisture along the boundary. While the main sfc low will already be occluded by the time the front arrives, the additional forcing from the trough becoming negatively tilted and favorable jet dynamics looks to support a secondary low developing along the front. This would enhance rainfall amounts and rates, especially if sufficient instability can lingering into the evening hours as the front races eastward. We will keep a close eye on potential thunderstorm activity as severe weather will be a concerns for neighboring WFOs to our west and south with the latest Day 3 SPC convective outlook nudging the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) further east into areas near and west of the Hudson. Localized damaging winds would be the primary hazard from any severe weather given the expected high shear, low cape environment. Total rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower compared to the previous forecast likely due to the progressive nature of the boundary with amounts ranging 0.75 to 1.75" (highest in the eastern Catskills and western New England). The latest RFC river forecast shows river rises Monday night into Tuesday as a result with forecast points along the Hoosic and Walloomsac nearing minor flood stage. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures quickly crash behind the front Monday night as winds shift to the west and usher in a much cold air mass. While temperatures drop below freezing by 06 - 12 UTC from west to east, westerly winds will also turn gusty behind the front which will help dry out sfcs. Will still need to monitor for slick spots into the Tuesday A.M commute, especially if precip can turn to snow before ending. The changeover to snow will depend on where any secondary lows can develop and how much precip lingers once the cold air arrives. Latest guidance has trended upwards with snowfall amounts mainly for areas near and north/west of the Capital District with a 40 to 80% chance for at least 1 inch of snow by 8AM Tuesday. This potentially can lead to slippery travel for the Tuesday A.M commute. With colder air pouring east in the wake of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday, forecast soundings show deep mixing up to nearly 850hPa supporting mixing of stronger winds down to the sfc. Latest probabilistic guidance shows 40 to 75% chance for gusts to exceed 40mph 2AM Tues to 2AM Wed. This increases the confidence for the need for a wind advisory, mainly focused down the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District, eastern Catskills, western New England, and the Upper Hudson Valley where probabilities are highest. Main impacts would be downed tree branches and blowing around unsecured objects. However, it is unlikely we will need a high wind warning as the probability for gusts over 50mph is limited to mainly higher terrain areas with values near or under 30%. The continued cold air advection looks to also support some lake effect snow showers into the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Tuesday into especially Tuesday night as winds become more westerly aloft but amounts look light. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure continues to move northeast into the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will quickly ridge in over NY and New England tonight into tomorrow. The gusty west to northwest winds will continue prior to nightfall due to the tight sfc pressure gradient between the sfc high and departing cyclone. Cigs and vsbys will be mainly VFR with bkn-ovc cigs 3.5-5 kft AGL with brief lapses to MVFR cigs/vsbys at KPSF with snow showers. The clouds will begin to diminish between 22Z/Sat and 01Z/Sun with few- sct stratocumulus remaining and some thin cirrus. The clouds will thicken and lower overnight with mid level clouds in the 10-12 kft AGL range by 12Z/Sun for KPOU/KALB/KGFL/KPSF. The winds will be west/northwest 12-20 KT with some gusts 30-36 KT in the early to mid pm. The winds will decrease to 8-15 KT by 00Z/Sun with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF. Winds become light and variable at 4 KT or less after 06Z/Sun...and will vary from the northeast to southeast at 7 KT or less after 12Z/Sun. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Definite SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Definite SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040- 047>054-058-063. MA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...15