090 FXUS61 KALY 251024 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 624 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have lowered temps slightly across the Catskills based on expected clouds and precipitation for today. With drier weather expected for early next week, have leaned towards the lower end of the blended guidance for dewpoints within daytime mixing for Monday and Tuesday afternoons. With an increasing pressure gradient, have also increased winds and gusts for Tuesday afternoon as well. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cloudy and cool weather is expected for today with some rain showers across southern areas, but no hydrologic impacts are anticipated with this storm system. 2) Drier weather will return to start the upcoming week with above normal daytime temperatures, but another chance for light rain will arrive towards mid-week with temperatures becoming more seasonable. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An area of low pressure currently located near northern Ohio will be shifting southeast today towards the northern mid Atlantic States. Radar imagery shows a large area of steady light precip over the eastern Great Lakes and hires CAMS suggests this precip will be spreading to southeast for today. This rain will be arriving in the Catskills and mid Hudson Valley for this morning, although there remains some uncertainty with it's northern extent, as all models show a sharp northeastern gradient with the precip, thanks to some drier air rotating around an upper level trough near eastern New England. The Capital Region will be on the edge of the precip and while it should be dry this morning, there could be some light showers that make it into the Albany area for later this afternoon or this evening. Still, the steadiest and heaviest rainfall will be over the eastern Catskills for today into tonight. For the highest peaks of the Catskills, the rain may mix with or briefly change over to snow, but this will generally be at the highest peaks within the wilderness of the eastern Catskills. At the top of these peaks, some light snow accumulation will be possible, but this won't have any impact for locations further down in elevation. The precipitation will continue into tonight, but should be winding down by Sunday morning. Total precip amounts will be near an inch for far southern areas but the sharp gradient will lower this to near zero near or just north of I-90. Overall, it will be rather cool today due to the clouds and precip. Most areas will have highs in the 50s, with some upper 30s to upper 40s in the high terrain areas, especially the Catskills. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 30s for the entire region for tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Although it will continue to be fairly cool on Sunday as the storm departs, much drier air will be in place for Monday. With plenty of sunshine expected, will anticipate more mixing than models currently indicate and will lean towards the higher end of the blended guidance for highs and the lower end for dewpoints for Monday. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday, although there may be more clouds approaching for later in the day. In addition, with an increasing gradient, winds may be more breezy on Tuesday and have slightly increased winds from the NBM for Tuesday. Highs will be well into the 60s to near 70 for valley areas on both Monday and Tuesday. With dewpoints in the 30s, this may allow for some localized fire weather concerns, especially with the breezy conditions on Tuesday, although it may depend on just how much rainfall occurs this weekend. Towards the middle of the week, there will be increasing chances for rain showers as the next system approaches from the west. As this occurs, temps will be a little cooler and more closer to seasonable levels for highs (lower to middle 60s). At this point, any precip looks fairly light. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites with just sct-bkn high cirrus clouds over the region. Satellite imagery does show some pockets of low clouds in the Hudson Valley, so there could start to be some lower ceilings around 2500-4000 ft fairly soon at KALB/KPOU, otherwise, it will remain VFR with just some high clouds. If these lower clouds do move in, they will probably be just fairly brief for the early morning hours. Light to calm winds are in place at this time, but they will start to become south to southeast at 5-10 kts by the mid to late morning hours. As a storm system approaches, ceilings will become bkn around 4000-5000 ft for all sites by later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Based on the latest CAMs, a batch of rain will be approaching, but it looks to avoid most of the northern sites (KGFL, KALB, KPSF) initially, but should bring some rain to KPOU later today, mainly after 16z. Flying conditions will lower this afternoon to MVFR and some IFR is possible there this evening as well. Eventually, some lower clouds around 2-3 kft are expected at KALB/KPSF for this evening and into the overnight hours. Will also include a PROB30 for tonight in case some rain does move in, but it will be close if it makes it or not. Either way, it does appear that some lower clouds will move in. Meanwhile, light rain will continue into the overnight at KPOU, keeping MVFR in place and possibly IFR as well. KGFL will be far enough north for continued VFR conditions. All sites will see light to calm winds for the overnight hours. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...27