734 FXUS61 KALY 032336 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 729 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009 .SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT- BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST- SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES. TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND. SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT AGL. MOST SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL IMPACT KPOU THROUGH 03Z/04. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR MAINLY FOR CIGS AT KGFL...AS SOME LOWER CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WRAP BACK SOUTHEAST BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 8 KT. ON SAT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 KT...ESP AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECT DOWN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT PM...VFR. SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES. PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR. && .FIRE WEATHER... WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER ENTIRE RIVER BASINS. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...KGS AVIATION...KL/HELLER FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV