273 FXUS61 KALY 120939 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 439 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. A BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY UTILIZING SOME LAKE MOISTURE...AND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 4 AM EST...A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE CLOSED H500 UPPER LOW TIED TO THE POLAR VORTEX IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER CNTRL-NRN QUEBEC. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH H850 TEMPS EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO AROUND -18C TO -22C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND -15C TO -18C SOUTH AND EAST. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES E/NE OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H500 TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING. THERE IS A VORT MAX/UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THE MULTIBANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE DOMINATE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM WILL BE FROM THE NW /AROUND 310 DEGREES/. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMP IS ABOUT 5C...AND THE SFC-850 HPA...SFC-700 HPA DELTA T/S ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AT TIMES AT THE KSYR...KUCA...KRME SOUNDINGS. THE PROBLEM FOR SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT IS THE TRAJECTORY FAVORS MAINLY MULTIBANDS...AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DOES LOWER TO ABOUT 5 KFT AGL IN THE EARLY TO MID PM. WE THINK SOME OF THE MULTIBANDS COULD GET INTO THE ERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE PM...AND THE EARLY EVENING. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES FOR ALBANY SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF HAVING A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS IF WE MIX TO ABOUT H925. IT WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT SOME SINGLE DIGITS READINGS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND SRN GREENS. UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WIND CHILLS WILL BE FROM 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY. WE KEPT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UP FOR THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 9 AM WITH SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW. THE WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED A BIT OVER THE SRN GREENS AND THE WIND CHILLS APPEAR THEY WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE -20F CRITERIA. WE CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THIS WILL NOT BE A PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WARMING...AND SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW WITH A 290 DEGREE TRAJECTORY. WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WE ARE LOOKING FOR A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN MONTGOMERY...SRN HERKIMER...AND MOST OF SCHOHARIE CTY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY /INCLUDING LATE SUNDAY PM/. THERE WAS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/CAN GGEM/GFS WITH THIS LIGHT SNOW EVENT. THE 290 DEGREE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE TACONICS...AND SRN GREENS...AND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY ALSO RECEIVED A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM I-90 NORTHWARD IN THE MORNING...THEN TAPERING TO JUST CHC VALUES ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE S/SW FROM THE OH VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. H850 TEMPS WARM BACK TO -4C TO -10C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE FCST AREA. TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO MID-FEB SEASONAL VALUES. WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. MONDAY NIGHT...THE H500 TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE FLAT FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE WENT WITH THE COLDER METMOS MINS...WITH MAINLY TEENS OVER THE FCST AREA...EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS. TUE-TUE NIGHT...MUCH OF THE REGION GETS BACK INTO A MILD AIR MASS WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AND DAMPENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE DAY DRY...BUT CLOUDY. THE SYNOPTIC/QG LIFT IS VERY WEAK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EAST...AND LOW CHC TO THE WEST FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. IMPULSE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M30S OVER THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FLOW WILL REMAIN FAST ACROSS CONUS WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH INTERACTIONS THERE MAY BE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING OVER THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW FROM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD BEING DRAWN THAT WAY BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STREAMS SEPARATE. THE LOW TRACK WILL IMPACT THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE P-TYPES. GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS THE EUROPEAN AS IT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SPLIT FLOW WHICH WE HAVE HAD THIS WINTER AND STATES IT HAS BEEN BE THE MOST STABLE OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THIS TIME...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW AT NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT DUE TO SHORT WAVES ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE THE UPPER OVER HUDSON BAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z/MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR BEING USHERED IN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLDER AIR PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB THIS EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FLOW COMES DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY TODAY ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SPEED WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS HOLDING ON AT KALB THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTLOOK... MON...MAINLY VFR. BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH A CHC -SHSN AT KALB. MON NIGHT-TUE AM...VFR. NO SIG WX. TUE AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLY WITH A CHC -SHRA/-SHSN. WED-THU AM...VFR. NO SIG WX THU PM...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC -RA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE EFFECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA/HSA/. THE FRIGID AIR MASS TODAY LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HSA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL LINGER TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... ALBANY NY...SNOWFALL RECORDS DATA BACK TO THE 1884-1885 SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THIS SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 11TH STAND AT 13.8 INCHES LEAST SNOWIEST SEASONS... 1) 13.8 INCHES 1912-13 2) 19.0 INCHES 1988-89 3) 24.8 INCHES 1929-30 4) 26.7 INCHES 1918-19 5) 27.4 INCHES 1979-80 5) 28.1 INCHES 1889-90 6) 28.4 INCHES 1936-37 7) 28.7 INCHES 1990-91 / 1914-15 8) 28.9 INCHES 1896-97 9) 29.8 INCHES 1911-12 10) 29.9 INCHES 1920-21 BREAKDOWN OF MONTHLY SNOWFALL 1912-13 SEASON... OCT...ZERO NOV...TRACE DEC...5.5 INCHES JAN...TRACE FEB...6.2 INCHES MAR...2.0 INCHES APR...0.1 INCHES MAY...ZERO BREAKDOWN OF MONTHLY SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON... OCT...5.4 INCHES NOV...TRACE DEC...0.7 INCHES JAN...7.5 INCHES FEB...0.2 INCHES THROUGH THE 11TH MAR... ??? APR... ??? MAY... ??? LEAST SNOWIEST FEBRUARIES (SNOWFALL TOTAL THAT SEASON) 1) 1.3 INCHES 1912 (29.8 INCHES 1911-12) 2) 1.7 INCHES 1937 (28.4 INCHES 1936-37) 3) 1.8 INCHES 1968 (42.2 INCHES 1967-68) 4) 1.9 INCHES 1941 (51.7 INCHES 1940-41) 5) 2.4 INCHES 1886 (39.9 INCHES 1885-86) 6) 2.5 INCHES 2009 (52.6 INCHES 2008-09) 7) 2.7 INCHES 1957 (70.3 INCHES 1956-57) 8) 2.8 INCHES 1987 (80.6 INCHES 1986-87) 9) 3.2 INCHES 1918 (40.3 INCHES 1917-18) 10) 3.4 INCHES 2002 (47.4 INCHES 2001-02) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...WASULA CLIMATE...IAA