066 FXUS61 KALY 071734 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 134 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some light snow showers remain across the region, but little to no additional accumulation expected. Lowered low temperatures tonight, and for both tomorrow and Thursday lowered dew points and raised daytime highs. Also increased winds Thursday afternoon. Finally, cold frontal passage Friday afternoon has trended slightly quicker in model guidance, bringing a chance for showers to areas north and west of the Capital District in the afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Generally tranquil weather expected for the next several days with temperatures moderating to above normal levels late this week through early next week. 2) The combination of low relative humidity values and breezy conditions may lead to some fire weather concerns Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 1:35 PM EDT...Sfc low that brought snow showers to the region earlier today is now tracking off to the east of our region with its associated cold front. There are still some lingering snow showers across the region, especially for northern and western areas. These snow showers are due in part to lake effect/enhancement from cold advection over the relatively warmer lakes, with some contribution also from the upper trough axis and cold pool aloft passing overhead. Not expecting much additional accumulation with these snow showers this afternoon for most of the region, except in the ADKs and southern Greens where up to an additional coating to a half inch will be possible. Temperatures range from the mid 20s in the ADKs with snow showers, to near 50 in the Mid Hudson Valley where there has been more sun and mainly dry conditions so far today. Winds are also breezy across the region, with most areas gusting to 20-35 mph at this time. Winds should remain gusty through the rest of the afternoon with deep mixing to around 800 mb per model forecast soundings. Tonight, sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Winds become calm after 06z, with clearing skies. This will allow temperatures to radiate into the 10s to low 20s, with some single digit lows possible in the ADKs. This sfc high combined with rising heights aloft and large-scale subsidence will keep us dry through Wednesday with temperatures trending closer to near normal for early to mid April. The sfc high slides off to the east Thursday, allowing for more warm advection and temperatures rising into the upper 50s to low 60s. It also becomes breezy as the high slides off to the east, but we should remain dry through the day. One forecast change is that a cold front associated with low pressure tracking to the north of the region now looks to drop into our northwestern areas Thursday night. A few light showers are possible there, but forcing and moisture both look unimpressive. Then, Friday, another wave of low pressure develops along this front. Moisture should increase ahead of the front this time, but the best forcing still looks to remain north of the region. Given these forecast changes, some light showers now look possible for the northwestern half of our CWA Friday. The cold front tracks south our area Friday night as the sfc low tracks into northern New England, bringing some additional light showers to the rest of the region. For our southern areas that remain ahead of the cold front Friday looks relatively warm with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Another area of high pressure then builds over the region for the weekend with an amplifying upper ridge. Temperatures remain above normal, and could get back into the 70s early next week with low- level warm advection beneath the upper ridge. The weekend should be completely rain-free. At this time, Monday looks mostly dry as well, but there will be a series of upper shortwaves tracking to our west in the SW flow on the upstream side of the ridge aloft. If one of these disturbances makes it up and over the ridge, then a few showers would be possible Monday, with the best chance across northern/northwestern areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thursday, deep boundary layer mixing will allow for temperatures rising into the upper 50s to around 60 with afternoon dew points in the 10s to 20s. RH values will therefore drop to 25-35% for most of the area during the afternoon. Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph during the afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph, strongest in the channeled flow areas of the Hudson Valley. There is less confidence whether or not fuels will be supportive of fire spread, as most of the region (outside of the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England) saw around 0.1" of liquid precipitation this morning, with some of that falling as snow. Nevertheless, tomorrow looks sunny and dry, which should help the fuels to dry out at least somewhat. Will continue to evaluate the forecast and coordinate with state partners as needed for any potential fire weather headlines. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions start the TAF period due to passing low clouds. Low ceilings in MVFR conditions have been included in a TEMPO group for KPSF through 20z as conditions fluctuate between VFR and MVFR before VFR conditions become the dominant condition through 08/3z when MVFR conditions return for the overnight hours tonight. Otherwise, vicinity snow showers diminish this evening and VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Breezy conditions continue through this evening with gusts ranging between 25 and 35 knots. Wind gusts decrease between 22z and 08/3z to less than 25 knots and by 3z, less than 10 knots. Winds continue to decrease after 3z for light and variable winds tomorrow morning. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...05