472 FXUS61 KALY 271838 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 238 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continued previous trend of increasing temperatures this afternoon and lowering dew points both this afternoon and tomorrow. Also increased wind gusts tomorrow. An SPS for an elevated risk of fire spread will be in effect for portions of the southern ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, Capital District, Catskills, and southern VT. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of gusty winds, low RH, and dry fuels will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread Tuesday mainly for areas north of I-90. 2) Widespread rain or showers expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Then, below normal temperatures with a few lingering showers expected for the end of the week into the weekend. Despite the rainfall, limited impacts are expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...After a chilly start to the day tomorrow, temperatures will quickly rise through the morning as high clouds begin to increase. Afternoon highs top out in the 60s for most areas, with some low 70s in the Upper Hudson Valley. With deep mixing expected, RH values in the afternoon are expected to drop to 25-35% region wide. S/SE winds increase to around 10-15 mph by mid-morning with gusts of 20-25 mph near and north of I-90, and to 15-20 mph south of I-90, except in the Catskills where 20-25 mph gusts are expected. State partners have confirmed dry to very dry fine fuels across the region, especially for northern and northeastern areas. Given the above, an SPS has been issued for the southern ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, portions of the Capital District, Catskills, and southern VT. There was some consideration to put the southern ADKs in a fire weather watch, but confidence wasn't quite high enough given that winds may actually start to drop off through the afternoon as the core of the low-level jet moves off to our north. Moisture should also begin to increase there by late afternoon with a weakening disturbance potentially bringing a few light showers after 4-5 PM. Most of the Middle Hudson Valley fire weather zone and western CT/MA were left out of the SPS since winds there are expected to be lighter. Rainfall over the weekend and those areas being slightly further along with leaf-out will likely also help to reduce the risk of fire spread compared to areas further north. KEY MESSAGE 2...As of 2:40 PM EDT...Mainly clear skies across the region this afternoon with temperatures running warmer than guidance as most areas are in the upper 60s to low 70s. With a ridge of high pressure remaining overhead tonight, clear skies and generally cal winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. While we don't have any areas expected to hit freezing tonight, we did go cooler than NBM by a few degrees for overnight lows. Tomorrow, ridging aloft and at the sfc moves off to the east, as a broad upper low with several shortwaves rotating around its periphery drops into south-central Canada. One negatively tilted upper shortwave and associated sfc low will track well to our W/NW. With a very dry airmass and the best upper forcing well to the W/NW, a line of showers will be weakening as it tracks into our western zones tomorrow evening. A few light showers will be possible, but qpf amounts look to be a few hundredths of an inch at most. A couple showers could linger into tomorrow night, with lows in the 40s. Wednesday through Thursday...Much of the day Wednesday will be dry, but rain chances increase in the late evening and overnight. The aforementioned ULL will track east towards the Great Lakes Wednesday. Another upper shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it tracks around the base of the ULL and phases with a southern stream disturbance. An associated sfc low will track through the Ohio Valley and along the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, bringing widespread rain/periods of showers. A widespread quarter to half inch of rain is expected, with some locally higher amounts up to around 1" possible for western zones. These rainfall amounts are not expected to result in any hydro issues at this time. The widespread showers should move off to the east of our region Thursday morning, with a cold front also tracking across the region. Through the remainder of the forecast period, the ULL looks to remain overhead or close-by, which will result in a period of below normal temperatures. Isolated to possibly scattered showers will be possible each afternoon beneath the cold pool aloft, but none of these days look like a washout. By Sunday, there are signals for a coastal low to track to our south and east, but whether or not it gets close enough to bring more widespread showers to our region remains uncertain at this lead time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with high pressure in place. Favored flying conditions will remain will place throughout the entire 18z TAF period with mainly to clear skies persisting through this evening. Clouds will begin to move into the region late this evening, well ahead of a low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes, but ceilings don't look to develop until 12-15z tomorrow morning. And even these will still be well within VFR thresholds at about 20-25 kft. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the entirety of the 18z period as well with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...12