101 FXUS61 KALY 222345 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 645 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Warning has been converted to a Blizzard Warning for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, with a start time of 21z. Combination of heavy snow and gusty winds will result in very low visibility and dangerous travel conditions. In addition, snowfall amounts on the northern edge have been trimmed slightly due to newer guidance suggesting a tight gradient in snowfall totals for the Capital Region and Mohawk Valley. Amounts may still need to be reduced further, but will wait for radar trends and short-term models to make further changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A high impact Nor'Easter will bring heavy accumulating snowfall and strong winds to parts of the area this evening through much of Monday, which will result in difficult to impossible travel conditions, blizzard conditions in Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, and possible downed trees and power lines. 2) A fast moving low pressure area is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the commute. 3) Another storm system potentially could bring light to moderate amounts of accumulating snow or a wintry mix Thursday into early Friday with some uncertainty with the track and timing of the system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low (around 1003 mb) is located close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This area of low pressure will be lifting northward offshore the coast of the Delmarva for this evening and will be passing east of New Jersey for tonight. It will continue to track east-northeast for Monday, passing south of southern New England. The storm is expected to rapidly deepen and strengthen, as a large closed off upper level trough over the Ohio Valley dives towards the storm system. The storm is could become as strong as 970 mb by late Monday based off model guidance, so this would be a significant cyclone near the Northeast coast before it departs towards Atlantic Canada for Monday night. With the upper level shortwave to the west, some light snow has already been ongoing across the region, but this has been very light so far and not leading to much accumulation. With widespread cloud cover and a light northerly flow in place, temperatures area fairly cold, with values in the mid 20s to low 30s. MRMS imagery already shows more organized precipitation associated with the developing surface storm over south Jersey and this is lifting northward. Based off the latest model guidance, southern parts of the CWA will start to get into the steadier snowfall by this evening (mainly after 00z). This snowfall will try to work its way northward and looks to reach the Capital Region and southern Vermont after midnight or so. The steadiest and heaviest snowfall looks to occur for the late night hours and into Monday morning, as the surface low tracks closest to the area. There looks to be a heavy band of snow on the northwest side of the surface cyclone and this looks to be a pivoting band, with snowfall rates exceeding 2" per hour. It is still unclear just how far north and west this band gets, but the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT are most likely to see the high snowfall rates and heaviest amounts. Snowfall should gradually diminish on Monday from west to east, but may linger in the high terrain of western New England into the evening hours. Guidance continues to show totals in exceed of one foot across southern areas, with some areas still over 16" for the highest terrain of the Catskills. Litchfield County may see the highest totals in our area as well being closest to the storm center. Meanwhile, the northern fringe continues to be a difficult forecast. Latest 12z guidance has trended lower in snowfall amounts for the northern extent, with the best gradient staying south and east of the Capital Region. Although Winter Storm Warnings continue for the Albany area, amounts may be lower than the previous forecast if this guidance is correct. Have lowered totals in the Albany area to around 5", but it's possible this is even too high based on the latest HRRR. Some adjustments to headlines on the northern side may be needed. Meanwhile, the southern counties are expected to see heavy snowfall and gusty winds reaching 50 mph will result in blowing and drifting of snowfall. With enough periods of strong winds expected along with the heavy snowfall, blizzard conditions are expected for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, especially late tonight into Monday morning. Have upgraded to a Blizzard Warning for these counties, with visibility under 1/4 mile expected for at least several hours within the heavy falling snowfall. This will result in dangerous whiteout conditions and impossible travel conditions. The strong winds look late tonight into Monday, and much of the area will see blowing snow with gusts over 30 mph at times. The wet snow, combined with the gusty winds, could result in some downed tree limbs and possible power outages as well. While temps will generally be in the mid 20s to low 30s during the storm, they will become colder for Monday night as the storm departs. With the continued breezy conditions, this will result in wind chill values near zero, especially for high terrain areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... A fast moving clipper system is expected to impact the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a northern stream system and moisture is somewhat limited. The track of the surface low looks to be north of the area, so this will limit the overall precip. Still, a coating to an inch or two is expected for many areas and this may make for slippery conditions during the morning commute on Wednesday. Highs should reach into the 30s on Wednesday for the entire area, so some melting is possible during the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3... Another storm system will impact the region for late Thursday through early Friday. There are some differences in the models regarding the storm track and exact timing. This system will be coming from the west and will have more moisture than the previous storm system for Wednesday. Some guidance, including the AI models, show a track south of the region, so much of the precip could be snow, although some guidance does show a changeover to mix or rain, especially southern areas. This could have an impact on travel for Friday morning based on the exact timing and amounts. For now, will lean close to the NBM guidance during this time period, but NBM guidance already shows over a 50% chance of at least 2" of snow for much of the area at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR conditions as of 6:45 PM EST, but snow should reach POU within the next half hour to an hour. Once snow begins, vsbys will quickly lower to IFR. SNow will begin next at PSF closer to 2-4z, followed by ALB by 06z. GFL may not see snow develop until late tonight, after 08z. Once snow develops, mainly IFR to LIFR vsbys expected at all terminals. Heaviest snow looks to be from around 06z tonight to 15z tomorrow morning. Within this timeframe, fairly high confidence for POU/PSF to see heavy snow with 1/4SM vsbys or less. While the heaviest bands are expected to remain just southeast of ALB, LIFR vsbys are possible here too late tonight/early tomorrow morning if the band ends up just slightly west of the current forecast. Intensity of snow should start to diminish late tomorrow morning, with snow tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. IFR vsbys continue until snow ends, and even once snow ends blowing snow may lead to continued MVFR vsby restrictions especially at POU/PSF through 00z Tuesday. Winds now are at 5-10 kt from the E/SE, but will increase to 10-20 kt from and veer to the N/NE overnight into tomorrow morning. Strongest winds expected late tonight through tomorrow morning, when gusts to 35-40 kt are possible. Winds turn mainly to the N/NW tomorrow afternoon and evening, with gusts of 30-35 kt continuing. Will mention LLWS for much of tonight and tomorrow at all terminals as the low-level jet strengthens to 45-55 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ058>061. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ039>041-050-082-084. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ047>049- 051>054. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35