076 FXUS61 KALY 182341 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 741 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winds were increased this afternoon into tonight with the 90th percentile of the NBM guidance. Wet snowfall amounts were increased slightly greater over the higher terrain with some one inch or so amounts over the southwest Adirondacks. Some minor adjustments to the precipitation timing and QPF tonight through tomorrow. Any measurable snow on the grassy surfaces will likely be at 1500 ft elevation or greater. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild weather conditions end this afternoon, as a cold front tonight brings rain and snow showers through tomorrow morning with cooler and brisk conditions. No major impacts expected with any accumulations over the higher mountain peaks. 2) Although the upcoming week will start out unseasonably cold, temperatures will moderate back to near or slightly above normal by later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid and upper level trough will approach NY and New England late this afternoon into tonight. A strong cold front with the upper level trough brings a period of showers tonight. The south/southeast low-level flow ahead of the front has made it mild late this afternoon with temps in the 60s and lower to mid 70s. Southerly wind gusts were increased to 20-30 mph late this afternoon into tonight especially in the confluent area of the Capital Region in the Hudson River Valley and over the higher terrain. Some lower stratus has backed in over the southern Greens, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. It should remain dry until tonight, when the CAMS shows showers impacting the W/SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Little to no instability is present, so thunder was kept out of the forecast. The showers increase from the west to southwest to the north/northeast overnight with the breezy conditions. The low- level convergence is strong with the front with some upper-level support. A weak wave may move along the front towards daybreak, and the cold front shows some ana-frontal characteristics with the pcpn in the wake of the windshift. Strong cold advection will occur with lows falling back into the 30s and 40s. Temps may be cold enough for some wet-bulb cooling over the west/southwest Adirondacks and high peaks of the eastern Catskills for some wet snow accumulations by daybreak. PWATs increase to 1 to 2+ STDEVs above normal. Expecting a modest QPF event across the region with a quarter to two thirds of an inch expected. Tomorrow morning, snow levels will be lowering and some of the guidance continues to show a transition to snow to around 1500 ft in elevation. Some light snow accums may occur over the grassy surfaces. Some wet snow flakes may mix in over the valley floors if temps cool enough form the Capital District north and west. The latest 24-hr NBM probabilities show the best chance > 1" of snow for the period ending 8 pm Sunday is over the southern Dacks, high peaks of the Catskills, Berkshires and southern Greens where probs are 25-50%. Most locations above 1500 ft will receive a coating to a half inch. Spots in the south/southwest Dacks could get an inch or two at best. Warmest temps will be during the morning, as they will fall or steady in the late morning into the afternoon. Daytimes highs will only be in the 30s and 40s. The pcpn ends in the mid to late pm. It will brisk and cold compared to the past several days as north to northwest wind increase to 10 to 20 mph with some gust 25-30 mph due to deeper mixing and the tight sfc pressure gradient near the region. Some lingering snow showers and flurries may occur over the southern Greens and western Adirondacks with a disturbance associated with the upper trough with little to no accums (a dusting to few tenths at best) with lows falling back to the 20s to lower 30s. The winds should dry out the surfaces, but a few isolated spots could be possible over the highest terrain. KEY MESSAGE 2... The work week starts out on a chilly note with cyclonic flow continuing over the region. A few lake effect or west/northwest upslope snow and rain/snow showers will persist through the morning into the afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of accumulations. H850 temps fall -2 to -3 STDEVs below normal Mon-Mon night according to the NAEFS with the actual H850 temps around -10C. Max temps will be about 15 degrees or so below normal with highs in the 40s in the valleys and upper 20s to 30s over the higher terrain with brisk conditions. It will be very cold night for mid to late April with lows in the lower to mid 20s in the valleys and teens to lower 20s over the higher terrain. The growing season does not begin until May 1st for the major valleys in the ALY forecast area. High pressure builds in with partly to mostly sunny skies on Tue, as max temps will will be slightly warmer, but still run below normal by 5-10 degrees with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Another short-wave dives across the region in northwest flow aloft with a slight to low chance of rain/showers Tue night into Wed morning. A weak sfc trough and a warm front move through with a slight uptick for temps on Wed closer to normal readings with mid 50s to lower 60s in the valleys and 40s to around 50F over the mtns and hills. High pressure builds in for Thu into Fri for potentially a dry period with temps warming near to slightly above normal based on the NBM and WPC guidance. A disturbance in west to northwest flow may bring some scattered showers back to forecast area by the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions will start the TAF period (though mixed MVFR/VFR) at KPSF ahead of an approaching frontal system. Some rain showers along a warm front will reach the TAF sites between 04-06z/Sun with cigs trending to MVFR with MVFR/VFR vsbys. As the warm front continues to move through, cigs likely lower to IFR/MVFR at all sites with MVFR/VFR vsbys continuing. Precipitation will transition to a steady rain around or shortly after 12z/Sun with mainly MVFR cigs/vsbys expected. Rain may mix with or change to snow before ending, mainly at KPSF (18-20z/Sun) but confidence on this was too low to include in this TAF update. Precipitation ends between 19-22z/Sun with conditions quickly returning to VFR. South to southeasterly winds will continue through much of tonight then quickly shift to the west to northwest by 12-15z/Sun behind a cold front and remain in this direction through the end of the TAF period. Surface winds look to remain elevated enough tonight to prevent LLWS criteria from being reached. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...33