938 FXUS61 KALY 282341 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The SPS for Elevated Fire Weather Risk has expired for portions of eastern NY and southern VT. RH values will increase overnight to 70-90% with winds becoming light (less than 10 mph) to calm across the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Moderate to high confidence for at least a half inch of rain Wednesday night into Thursday throughout eastern NY and western New England but flooding impacts are unlikely. 2) High confidence for below normal temperatures late this week into the weekend with a medium chance for frost advisories and/or freeze warnings in at least a portion of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield County, CT where the growing season begins May 1. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... One final day of spring warmth and mainly dry conditions on Wednesday as upper level ridging gradually slides into New England; however, enjoy the spring weather while it's here as a deepening upper level low over the Great Lakes will shift eastward Wednesday night into Thursday. A shortwave rounding its base looks to result in a secondary sfc low developing off the mid-Atlantic coast Wed night with it tracking into eastern New England Thursday. A decently strong low and mid-level southerly jet elicits a moisture fetch from the Gulf and western Atlantic and as an inverted trough extends off the coastal low into eastern NY and western New England, we continue to have high confidence in a period of widespread rain overspreading the region Wed night into Thursday morning. Overall forcing and moisture has trended a bit weaker over the past few days. While there is medium to high confidence for at least 0.50" of rain regionwide between 2PM Wed and 2PM Thurs, the probability of amounts exceeding 1.00" drop off considerably to under 30% except the south facing slopes of the southern Adirondacks and eastern Catskills where probs are a bit higher. The steadiest rain winds down Thursday morning with lingering showers continuing into the afternoon, especially north/east of the Capital District, as our coastal low deepens, slows down the inverted trough and supports wrap around showers. KEY MESSAGE 2... There is high confidence for a period of well below normal temperatures Thursday through this weekend as the large scale upper level closed low persists over southern Ontario resulting in daily high temperatures likely at least 10 degrees below normal and isolated to scattered showers each day (even rain/snow mix in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens). Breezy westerly winds Friday and, to a lesser extend, Saturday will make it feel even cooler. The growing season starts May 1 in the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and NW CT. Overnight lows will likely remain well below normal with greater than a 75% chance for overnight lows to fall below 35 degrees in the Upper Hudson Valley and a 50 to 75% chance in the Capital District, southern Taconics, and NW CT Friday night and Saturday night. With diurnal clouds at least partially clearing overnight, we will need to monitor the potential for freeze warnings and/or frost advisories and impacts to sensitive outdoor vegetation in these areas. Our cold stretch lingers through early next week before temperatures gradually warm closer to normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KSPF with mid and high clouds to start the TAF cycle with cigs to slightly lower with a weakening mid and upper level disturbance. Expect cigs overnight to be in the BKN-OVC range at 4-6 kft AGL and 8-10 kft AGL. A few light showers or sprinkles may impact KGFL, but we did not include any showers there. The lower cloud deck may become scattered tomorrow in the late morning with lingering mid and high clouds, before clouds thicken and lower again in the mid and late afternoon with an approaching wave of low pressure from the Ohio Valley and PA. Some showers may reach KPOU towards 00Z/Thu and we included a PROB30 from 22Z/Wed to 00Z/Thu for VFR/MVFR conditions. The S/SE winds diminish to 5 KT or less overnight, and then increase to 5 to 10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts close to 20 KT at KALB. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Fri Night to Sat Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/15 AVIATION...15