217 FXUS61 KALY 110600 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 200 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost advisories now in effect for tonight across the Mohawk Valley, northeast Catskills and Helderbergs, Lake George Saratoga region, southern VT and Rensselaer Plateau where temps should drop into the lower/mid 30s tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence in below normal temps tonight through Tuesday, with areas of frost (including frost advisory issuances) expected mainly north of I-90 tonight, with more widespread frost and/or freezing temperatures Monday night/Tuesday morning. 2) Unsettled conditions develop for the mid to late week period, with showers/thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cooler air mass will overspread the region from NW to SE overnight and linger through Tuesday. The growing season will be underway by Monday morning for all of eastern NY except for the SW Adirondacks, as well as all of western New England. Temps are expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across much of the Mohawk Valley, NE Catskills/Schoharie County, Lake George/Saratoga region and eastern Rensselaer County and most of souther VT tonight, where frost advisories have been issued. A few sheltered locations within these areas could drop to around or just under freezing. Even colder min temps are expected across much of eastern NY/western New England for Monday night/Tuesday morning as high pressure builds closer to the region. Expect widespread frost advisories and/or some freeze warnings to be issued for this time period as low temps drop into the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s for many areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... Other than a few passing showers across the southern Adirondacks Monday afternoon, mainly dry conditions are expected until Wednesday as an upper level trough slowly approaches from the Great Lakes region. As the trough approaches and amplifies, low pressure is expected to develop across along northern mid Atlantic coast and track northeast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the system Wednesday afternoon and night from west to east, then depending on how the upper level trough evolves, could allow showers/thunderstorms to transform into an area of steady rain across portions of the region Thursday into Friday, with best chances for areas south and east of Albany. Locally heavy rainfall could occur, especially if the upper level trough slows down and eventually closes off, resulting in the surface low tracking closer to the coast before eventually pivoting farther offshore. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z/Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to continue across all terminals through the TAF period. Current satellite imagery shows broken and overcast mid/high level clouds filtering in from the southwest ahead of an approaching upper level trough. A brief break and even some clearing is expected in the early morning hours towards sunrise at all but KPOU which will likely have lingering thicker mid level clouds through tomorrow. After a mostly clear start today, diurnally driven clouds will begin to develop around 5,000 ft to 7,000 ft by 17z. Winds hold mainly northwesterly through the TAF period with winds tonight 5 kt or less before picking back up by morning (13z-15z) with speeds 5-10 kt and becoming gusty up to 25 kt by afternoon (17z- 18z). Winds then decrease into the evening again with speeds 4-6 kt. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ038>041-043- 047-048-051-054-082>084. MA...None. VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...53