809 FXUS61 KALY 091059 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 659 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes were made with this iteration that would impact the integrity of the previous forecast. Cosmetic adjustments were made to ensure sky cover, PoPs, and temperatures reflected latest observations and anticipated trends over the next several hours. All else remains unchanged. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend and into early next week with today bringing the most widespread, steady rainfall. However, given the largely light nature of rain over the next several days, no hydrological impacts are anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mother's Day weekend begins on a dreary note with widespread, steady rainfall expected for much of the day today. An initial batch of showers associated with a weak, eastward-propagating shortwave aloft and weak, inverted-trough at the surface will first spread into portions of the Eastern Catskills, lower Mid- Hudson Valley, and southwest New England early this morning. However, as warm air advection and isentropic lift increase throughout the morning ahead of an eastward- tracking warm front associated with a deepening surface low ejecting north and eastward out of the western Great Lakes, these showers will evolve into an area of steady, stratiform rain. Most rainfall rates will remain on the lighter side given our distance from the stronger axis of forcing, but periods of moderate rates both early this morning and this afternoon will be possible across portions of the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England due to upslope flow in the higher terrain and increasing, southwest flow at 850mb. That said, the presence of an upper-level jet and our position relative to its right entrance region could also support brief, localized moderate rates as far north as the Capital District this afternoon. But despite any moderate rainfall rates amid a prolonged, light and steady rainfall from this morning through this afternoon, rainfall totals are only progged to reach ~0.1" up to 0.5" with the highest of these spanning the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and into western New England. These amounts will not be sufficient to drive any concerns of flooding. A break in steady rainfall comes this evening once the aforementioned warm front and shortwave lift north and east through the region. However, not far behind, another shortwave will round the base of the upper low associated with the still deepening surface cyclone that will be approaching our overhead in central Quebec. The cold front trailing this surface low will also be on the approach from the northwest, driving sufficient forcing in tandem with the upper shortwave to generate an area of showers across the Southwest Adirondacks late this evening into the overnight. As the front sinks farther south and east into the day Sunday, additional showers will develop across the region, though with limited forcing courtesy of the low beginning to take a turn northward, these will be much more scattered in nature. And, with very limited instability and moisture influx becoming cut off with winds turning to the west to northwest upstream, these showers, too, are largely expected to produce light rainfall rates outside of locally moderate downpours due to orographic enhancement. Therefore, the expectation for a lack of hydrological issues persists. Showers may linger into Sunday night for areas to the south and east of Albany as the cold frontal passage begins to slow and a secondary wave of low pressure develops along it. That said, by Monday morning, the front and its low will have departed far enough to our south and east to allow high pressure nosing in from the west to reinforce dry conditions across the region. High pressure will then remain in place through Tuesday with temperatures reaching a pleasant range of 50s to low 60s. Additional chances for rain come for the middle to the end of next week as a large-scale trough takes the place of Tuesday's upper ridge. However, at this time, this rain also looks to be beneficial and not of a magnitude that would pose a concern for flooding. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z Sunday...A warm front continues lifting northward from the mid-Atlantic early this morning resulting in an area of light showers pressing northward through POU, PSF and ALB. However, cigs and vis remain VFR due to the light nature of the rain showers with GFL still north of the showers and therefore dry. As showers turn steadier this morning, expecting vis to become MVFR but cigs remain VFR. By this afternoon, a steadier period of rain likely sweeps across the terminals from west to east starting 17-19 UTC through 22-23 UTC which will likely result in IFR vis and MVFR cigs. The organized area of rain departs by around 00 UTC but lingering low-level moisture likely maintains MVFR cigs overnight with even a low to medium chance for IFR cigs at GFL, PSF, and ALB. Winds will generally be south- southeast by 12 to 15 UTC this morning sustained 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15-25kts with winds turning lighter after 00 UTC/10. Winds will generally be lighter at GFL with sustained winds around 5kts. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ041-043-083- 084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...31