517 FXUS61 KALY 072322 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 722 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continue to include frost for the Upper Hudson Valley for tonight, but clouds may increase late due to an approaching upper level disturbance. Behind this feature, have lowered dewpoints from NBM values for tomorrow afternoon within daytime mixing. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized areas of frost expected across the Upper Hudson Valley tonight due to temperatures in the mid 30s, which may impact sensitive outdoor vegetation. 2) Unsettled pattern this weekend into early next week, along with below normal temperatures. While some periods of rain showers are expected, no hydrologic impacts or thunderstorms are anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Visible satellite imagery shows diurnal cu/stratocu over the region. Despite good mixing, temperatures have been below normal today with values only in the 50s for most areas. With the loss of daytime heating, clouds will quickly diminish this evening and winds will be decreasing as well. This should allow for temperatures to quickly cool off, especially for sheltered areas of the Upper Hudson Valley, such as in the Glens Falls area. An upper level trough will be moving overhead overnight and a fast moving disturbance rotating around the base of the trough will approach for the late night hours. There could be a few light rain showers across far southern areas late tonight, but all areas may see cloud cover increasing. Clouds may still be thin enough for temps to continue to fall during the late overnight hours and lows in the Glens Falls area will be in the middle 30s. This may result in some areas of frost, which could impact any sensitive, tender and/or young vegetation that has been put outdoors early this season. A Frost Advisory is in effect for Washington, SE Warren and Northern Saratoga Counties, and gardeners and growers are encouraged to protect any sensitive plants in this area for tonight. Luckily, temperatures aren't expected to drop below freezing for any areas where the growing season has already begun. Temperatures should quickly rise after sunrise, ending the threat for frost. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather is expected for much of this weekend and into early next week. An upper level trough will be moving over the region for Friday into Saturday. Behind this feature, there will be a brief break before another upper level trough moves across the region for Sunday night into early next week. A few passing showers can't be ruled out on Friday, but the better chance for a steady light rain looks to be late Friday night into Saturday, especially for southern areas, as warm advection and an area of low pressure allow for a more organized area of rainfall. Still, rainfall rates and total amounts don't look excessive, with mainly a tenth to a quarter of an inch for most areas. Temperatures will be held down due to the cooler temps, clouds and possible rainfall for both Friday and Saturday, with 50s for most of the area. There may be a slight improvement in the temps for Sunday with some warmer temps aloft and briefly rising heights, with 60s for highs in valley areas. However, another chance for rainfall will arrive for late in the day into Sunday night as another cold front on the leading edge of the next trough arrives and brings some more showers, especially for southern and eastern parts of the region. Temperatures will be below normal again for early next week, with plenty of clouds and some additional spotty showers within the cyclonic flow of the upper level trough. At this time, rainfall doesn't appear to be excessive through early next week and no thunder is expected due to limited instability. While the weather pattern isn't ideal for outdoor plans each day, there won't be any threats for hazardous weather through at least early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z Saturday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:20 PM EDT. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Increasing mid and high clouds expected tonight associated with an upper disturbance. A few light showers possible at POU around 06-09z, with some MVFR cig reductions possible. Have also added a VCSH group for ALB for a few hours as well, but will keep prevailing VFR conditions there. Otherwise, SCT to BKN mid and high clouds remain in place through tomorrow. Another upper disturbance may bring some scattered showers tomorrow afternoon, mainly for ALB/POU/PSF. Brief MVFR vsby reductions possible within any showers, but otherwise VFR conditions expected through at least 00z Friday. It may take a few hours at ALB/PSF, but winds should diminish to 5 kt or less at all terminals overnight through early tomorrow morning. West winds then increase to around 10 kt with gusts to 15- 25 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) tomorrow late morning through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Friday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35