483 FXUS61 KALY 260625 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 225 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Steady light rain will be winding down over the next few hours. Adjusted POPs based on latest radar trends to show precip ending towards daybreak across southeastern areas. With high pressure moving overhead, adjusted min temps down slightly for tonight and slightly higher for Monday, based on expected full sunshine. With drier air mass moving into the region, leaned towards the lowered end of the blended guidance for dewpoints on Monday. Adjusted winds slightly higher for Tuesday and dewpoints lower during peak mixing on Tuesday afternoon as well. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Behind a departing storm system, drier air will begin returning to the region today, with much lower humidity levels by early in the upcoming week. Depending on fuels, enhanced fire weather conditions could be a localized concern for Monday and Tuesday. 2) Unsettled weather and cooler than normal temperatures look to return for the middle to latter portions of the upcoming week, but impacts look minor at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Steady light rainfall, currently ongoing for areas south of the Mohawk Valley and I-90, will be exiting the region from west to the east early this morning. All areas should be done with precipitation around daybreak, although some low clouds and fog may linger into part of the morning hours. A light northerly flow should allow for gradually more drier air to work its way into the region for later today, although noticeably more drier air won't arrive until Monday. High pressure will be overhead for Monday, allowing for plenty of subsidence. With full sunshine expected, it will be much drier, with RH values as low as 25 to 30 percent on Monday afternoon. Mixing will be limited due to the high pressure in place, so winds will be fairly light. Still, with plenty of sunshine expected, have gone with temps slightly above the NBM for Monday, with highs in valley areas well into the 60s to near 70. Upper ridge axis will still be overhead on Tuesday morning, but it will be shifting eastward by later in the day as the next system starts to approach. With an increasing pressure gradient developing, southeast winds will be stronger on Tuesday, with some gusts reaching 20-25 mph during the afternoon hours. Although there will be more clouds around, RH values will still be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon hours. Daytime temps will still be rather mild, with values well into the 60s once again. With the return of drier air, fine fuels will likely be drying out rather quickly early next week during daytime mixing with the abundant sunshine. Although these RH values are fairly seasonable considering it is still technically pre-greenup, we will need to coordinate with state fire weather partners to get an update on fuel status. Fine fuels have a tendency to dry out very quickly, so despite recent rainfall (up to an inch across southern areas this weekend), fuels could potentially be ready to go. While winds will be fairly light on Monday, they will be somewhat breezy on Tuesday due to the increasing gradient. Fire Weather partners may be open to Special Weather Statements early next week, although current wind gust forecasts would suggest that widespread Red Flag conditions probably won't be reached. Based on the latest local fire weather operating plan, the combination of easily dried out fine fuels and seasonably low RH values within daytime mixing on sunny days will likely require fire weather coordination for Special Weather Statements and/or Red Flag Warnings until greenup occurs. KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some potential for Fire Weather concerns to be temporarily alleviated due to some potential for rain showers will a storm system for Wednesday into early Thursday. As a frontal boundary approaches, a band of showers looks likely for late Wednesday into early Wednesday. At this point, showers look light enough to avoid any flooding concerns. Behind this frontal boundary, it appears to remain unsettled for the rest of the week and towards next weekend. Upper level trough will be remaining overhead as a cutoff low remains over or near the region, keeping plenty of clouds and some additional showers around. With the trough in place, temps look to be below normal for late in the week, with daytime temps only in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. While the trough may limit fire weather concerns, the cooler weather could bring another spring concern if enough clearing occurs: Frost. The Frost-Freeze program begins May 1st for the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and northwestern Connecticut. With overnight lows potentially in the mid to upper 30s for these areas late in the week, will need to watch for the potential to issue the first Frost Advisory of the season for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...KENX radar shows the last push of light to moderate rain will moving through areas tonight just reaching KALB and KPSF before exiting to the south. Model soundings indicate KALB, KPSF, and KPOU will see MVFR cigs with periods of IFR cigs through 8- 10z. KGFL will remain north of the precipitation shield with VFR conditions until early morning. After the showers move through, clouds will gradually begin to dissipate, however enough moisture leftover in the lower levels with very close temps and dewpoints plus calm winds could result in areas of patchy fog and low stratus developing in the early morning hours. This could lower conditions to IFR cigs across all the terminals towards daybreak. With sunrise, any lingering fog and IFR conditions should become VFR by about 13- 15z and prevail through Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds under 5 kt will persist through the night and into the morning before shifting to the north/northeast by noon with speeds becoming 4-8 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...53