250 FXUS61 KALY 060616 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 216 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some adjustments to PoPs/Wx late morning into the afternoon with the rainfall with the low pressure system and cold front. Also transitioned to stratiform rainfall during the day with a slight chance of thunderstorms south and east of the Capital Region in the late pm and early evening. Some localized areas of frost are possible Thu night/Fri morning in the Upper Hudson Valley and the Glens Falls area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A widespread rainfall is expected today into tonight. Cooler weather follows late this week into the weekend with some additional shower chances. 2) Localized areas of frost are possible in the Glens Falls, Saratoga Region and the Upper Hudson River Valley Thu night into Fri morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The cold front has become stationary over eastern NY and northern New England southwest into PA and the Ohio Valley this morning. A wave of low pressure is organizing over the Ohio Valley/western PA and will increase the rainfall across the region in the mid to late morning into the afternoon across eastern NY and western New England. PWATs increase to 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS guidance. The low-level convergence increases along the front as the wave approaches. The front may back north/northwest briefly before starting to push southward into the afternoon. The rain maybe moderate to briefly heavy at times. There is not much instability (generally less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE or mean SBCAPE) south and east of the Capital District based on the latest HREF guidance. We did place a slight chance of thunderstorms in for the south-central Taconics, the mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT in the mid-late pm into the early evening. Locations south and east of the Capital Region will likely be rain-free most of the morning before the boundary moves south and east. The latest NBM guidance indicates the best chance for 24-hr rainfall amounts to exceed an inch will be north/northwest of the Capital Region, where the probs >1" of rainfall are for the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, the Lake George Region and southern VT are 30-50% by 06Z/Thu. Our forecast supports a half an inch to inch of rain across the region with amounts just under a half inch in the southern extreme and in excess of an inch over the southwest Adirondacks. The rainfall amounts may result in some within-bank river/creek rises, but are not expected to be enough to result in any flooding concerns. Temps will be much cooler than yesterday with mid 40s to mid/upper 50s north and northwest of the Capital District with upper 50s to mid and upper 60s south and east. The rainfall clears out fast tonight compared to previous forecasts with the precipitation ending over NW CT in the early morning (~06Z) with clearing skies and lows falling back into the 30s and lower 40s. A broad mid and upper-level trough will be over the the eastern two thirds of the CONUS to close the week and enter the weekend. Cool and breezy conditions are expected Thu with temps below normal in the 50s to lower 60s with some 40s over the Adirondack Park. High pressure briefly builds in Thu night with cold conditions before a short-wave brings some isold-sct lake effect snow/rain showers on Friday. A more prolific short-wave and a wave approaching from the Midwest/Ohio Valley to opens the weekend with periods of rain/showers. A mainly dry day is expected for Mothers Day before unsettled weather with another wave and cold front returns late Sun night into early next week. No major hydro impacts are expected at this time, though temps will run slightly below normal for May. KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a brief window for some scattered to areas of frost to form, where the growing season has begun in the Upper Hudson River Valley, Glens Falls and Saratoga Region. Temps may fall into the 33-36F range with light to calm winds and partly cloudy skies Thu night into Fri morning. Localized areas of frost may form for portions of Saratoga, southeast Warren, and Washington Counties and a Frost Advisory may be needed later in time, if confidence increases for these temps and the threat for areas of frost. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z/Thu...Dry weather with VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the remainder of the overnight. A wave of low pressure and cold front will cross the region on Wednesday bringing a widespread rainfall, starting between 11-14z/Wed at KGFL/KALB and a few hours later at KPSF/KPOU. Initially VFR cigs/vsbys are expected but a gradual lowering to MVFR conditions are anticipated into the afternoon hours. Where some pockets of more moderate rain occur, some IFR vsbys could occur. Rain will begin to transition to scattered showers by 21z/Wed and 00z/Thu with likely mixed VFR/MVFR vsbys but cigs may lower into the IFR/low MVFR range. Showers taper off toward the end of the TAF cycle, though some patchy fog and/or IFR stratus may linger. Variable wind 10 kt or less is expected through tonight then increase out of the south to southwest at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (except remaining variable at less than 10 kt at KGFL). Wind will decrease to less than 10 kt during the late afternoon hours Wednesday shifting more westerly after 00z/Thu. Periods of LLWS are likely to continue at KPOU until around 12z/Wed with 2000 ft winds between 35-40 kt. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...33