253 FXUS61 KALY 020655 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 255 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures today and through much of tomorrow from the previous forecast. Also lowered ice accumulations slightly over the southern Greens through tomorrow due to marginal thermal profiles and antecedent warm ground conditions. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Moderate flooding continues on the West Canada creek through this evening into tonight, with minor flooding on the West Canada Creek and Mohawk River near Little Falls continuing into Friday. 2) Light freezing rain in the southern Adirondacks through this morning, and today into tomorrow for the southern Greens could lead to a few slick spots. Plain rain is expected for the rest of the region. 3) High confidence for additional showers this weekend with a frontal passage, then trending cooler and drier for the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:55 AM EDT...Moderate to near major flooding is continuing on the West Canada Creek early this morning due to yesterday's heavy rain and some snow melt. The Mohawk River near Little Falls remains in minor flood stage, while all other river forecast points are below flood stage at this time. For the river areas currently experiencing flooding, we are expecting up to an additional tenth or two of an inch of rain tonight, with additional very light rainfall amounts over the next couple days. This additional rainfall should have little impact on the river levels. Per latest NERFC forecasts, the West Canada Creek will likely remain above moderate flood stage through this evening/into tonight, eventually falling below minor flood stage Friday afternoon. The Mohawk River near Little Falls is expected to fall below minor flood stage this afternoon. For the latest river forecasts, please see www.water.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGE 2... Our region remains north of a warm front early this morning. With a plume of mid-level moisture as seen on CIRA ALWP imagery overlapping with a band of mid-level FGEN across the center of our CWA, we are seeing light stratiform rain across most of the region, except for the ADKs which remain north of the main precip shield. Most of the precip through the rest of the night and early this morning should remain south of the ADKs, but with temperatures there ranging from 30-32 degrees, a light glaze of ice is possible with any precip that falls. Better chance for some light freezing rain through early this morning is in the southern Greens where there will be more QPF, but more marginal temperatures closer to 32. The mid-level FGEN moves off to the east of our region this morning, as does the steadier precip. Nevertheless, we will remain on the north (cold) side of the sfc warm front today thanks an area of high pressure in SE Canada leading to cold air damming. In addition, with continued mid-level isentropic lift and warm advection, today will be mainly cloudy with some periods of mist and/or drizzle at times. We therefore trended high temperatures today below the NBM, closer to a LAV/MAV/EC MOS blend. While additional qpf amounts look light at a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so, temperatures hovering near or just below freezing in the ADKs and southern Greens could result in an additional glaze of ice there. A few more showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder) are possible tonight with a negatively tilted upper shortwave passing to our north, so some additional light ice accumulations will remain possible in the ADKs and southern Greens into tomorrow morning. Any ice will be mainly on elevated surfaces at elevations above 1500-2000 ft. While a few slick spots can't be ruled out, borderline thermal profiles and warm ground conditions will prevent this from being overly impactful. Additionally, these ice amounts are not expected to be high enough to lead to tree damage/power outage concerns. Therefore, we have opted to handle with SPSs rather than an advisory at this time. An area of low pressure tracking to our west through the Great Lakes will help lift the warm front northward across our region Thursday night and Friday, although with the low-level cold wedge in place we continued the trend of lower temps Friday, especially in the typical areas along the east slopes of the ADKs and southern Greens as well as in the upper Hudson Valley. For our southern/southwestern areas, Friday looks quite warm, though, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. As the sfc low tracks off to our northeast Friday evening/night, its trailing cold front will track through the region with a few light showers. KEY MESSAGE 3... Saturday, a ridge of high pressure builds into SE Canada behind our departing low, while yet another sfc low tracking to our west through the Great Lakes will lead to mid-level warm advection and isentropic lift. With strengthening S/SW LLJ advecting more moisture into the region, there could be a few showers around in the afternoon, but overall Saturday looks like the drier of the two weekend days. However, guidance is coming into better agreement for more cold air damming that could keep temperatures on the cool side, as well as a back-door cold front (BDCF) to track into western New England in the afternoon or evening. We therefore trended temps slightly cooler than the NBM, but temperatures Saturday may need to be lowered even more with future forecasts. The sfc low tracks to our north Saturday night and Sunday, dragging its cold front across the region. There will be more moisture to work with this time, so widespread showers are expected with the cold front. Timing of the cold front looks to be Sunday morning, which should limit instability and therefore the chance for thunder. QPF amounts generally look to remain under a half inch, but given wet antecedent conditions will continue to monitor for potential hydro issues. Fortunately, most ensemble river guidance has a very low (less than 5%) chance for additional flooding at this time. Behind the cold front, drier and much colder weather is expected for the first half of next week, with highs in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys) Monday through Wednesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 20s to 30s. Monday and Tuesday also look quite breezy which will make it feel even colder. Winds subside Wednesday as sfc high pressure builds overhead. A few light valley rain/mountain snow showers possible Tuesday with the passage of the upper trough, but otherwise dry and unimpactful weather expected for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z/Fri..A nearby frontal boundary and wave of low pressure will continue to bring a period of rain to mainly KALB/KPOU/KPSF through 12z/Thu with flight conditions lowering into the IFR/MVFR range. While most of the rain may remain south of KGFL, cigs are expected to also lower into at least the MVFR range. Much of Thursday into Thursday evening will feature continued IFR/MVFR cigs at all sites along with some passing showers or mist. North to northeasterly winds through this morning will become more east to southeasterly this afternoon through this evening. Speeds will be mainly in the 5-10 kt range. A few higher gusts toward 20 kt could occur at KALB after 00z/Fri. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...33/23