466 FXUS61 KALY 221758 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 158 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Steady rainfall will continue through the evening for many areas. Based on upstream radar imagery, have trended QPF up for far southern areas, with total QPF around three-quarters of an inch for far southern Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. As precipitation winds down tonight, just a brief period of snow or freezing drizzle is expected overnight, mainly for high terrain areas. Have adjusted POPs/weather to allow for some more drizzle than the previous forecast, but with drier air moving in, total precip amounts look fairly limited. Some passing snow showers possible on Monday thanks to the upper trough overhead, but latest temps forecast has most areas above freezing, so little accumulation is expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Steady rainfall will taper off this evening into tonight, with some high terrain areas seeing a brief period of snow or freezing drizzle as precipitation comes to an end by Monday morning. A few spots could see slick conditions as temperatures drop to near freezing. 2) After a chilly start to the week, temperatures will moderate back towards normal levels by the middle of the week. With only limited amounts of precipitation expected this week, weather impacts from precipitation are not anticipated for this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front passed through the region early this morning and is now located just north of the area across the North Country and into central Vermont. Meanwhile, surface low pressure is approaching the area from the west, with a cold front draped back to the southwest towards the eastern Great Lakes and Midwest. After a brief break in the precipitation, steady rainfall has returned to the entire region. Surface temps are above freezing everywhere, so precip is just plain rain. While the Adirondacks remain in the upper 30s, everywhere else has risen into the 40s to lower 50s. Bands of light rainfall will continue through the evening hours. Some moderate bursts are possible at times, although radar imagery looks a little worse than reality due to some bright banding aloft. Still, NYS mesonet is showing rates up to 0.15 inches per hour, so some ponding is expected. At this point, have not included thunder in our area based off the latest NBM, although some strikes have been noted earlier today across western New York. As the front settles southeast, the steadiest rainfall will shut off from northwest to southeast for this evening into tonight. The front may slow its progress towards the late night as another wave develops along the boundary, which may linger the precip for far southern areas. Based on this, have leaned towards the higher end of the blended guidance for QPF for far southern areas, with around 0.75" total for far mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. With colder air arriving from the north behind the boundary, there is a slight chance for the precip to end as some wet snow. Best chance of this would be high terrain of western New England and the Taconics for late tonight, with the wave on the front allowing the precip to linger for far southern areas. Any accumulation would be a coating to half inch. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible as well as low-level moisture lingers while the drier air moves in aloft behind the boundary, but impacts looks fairly limited at this time. Most areas will be done with precip on Monday morning. However, with the passing upper level trough, there could be a few passing instability snow showers during Monday afternoon. Some flakes in the air will be possible, but accumulation looks very limited as surface temps will probably be above freezing in the mid 30s to low 40s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The week will start off on the cool side with highs on Monday only in the 30s to low 40s. Temps will be fairly chilly on Monday night as well, with lows in the teens and 20s as some clearing occurs. While Tuesday will be below normal once again, temps look a little warmer compared to Monday with most areas in the 40s. Moderation will occur for Wednesday into Thursday as the low level flow returns out of the south to southwest. Valley areas should see highs into the 50s for both days. There could be a few passing rain showers for late Wednesday into Thursday, but moisture looks fairly limited and total precip won't be enough to cause any issues. There may be a cool down for Friday into the weekend with some additional showers (Thursday night into Friday), but again, precip doesn't look enough to cause any hydro issues and p-type will generally be rain for most areas outside the high terrain. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A variety of flying conditions between VFR and IFR start the TAF period due to low cloud ceilings and light to moderate rain showers moving through. Widespread rain showers continue through the 00z TAF timeframe before becoming isolated showers and/or drizzle for tonight. The highest confidence for drizzle to occur, which has been mentioned in PROB30 groups, is for KGFL and KALB. Otherwise, MVFR conditions gradually return between 23/12z and 23/18z. Winds continue to breezy at KALB, KGFL, and KPSF through this afternoon with gusts between 20 and 25 knots. Winds decrease this evening and switch from the south/southwest to the north and range between 5 and 15 knots. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...05