880 FXUS21 KWNC 101820 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT April 10 2026 SYNOPSIS: Multiple models indicate stronger mid-level high pressure across the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) compared to yesterday from the end of week-1 into and through much of week-2. This pattern supports increased chances of much above normal temperatures across parts of the southeastern CONUS continuing from the end of week-1 into the start of week-2. High and moderate risks of much above normal temperatures are designated for the southwestern CONUS at the beginning of week-2. Near record high temperatures are possible in some of these areas, with temperatures near or exceeding 90 deg F, which may be the first time of the season for some locations. Antecedent and anticipated dry conditions combined with warm temperatures increases the likelihood for Rapid Onset Drought across parts of the Southeast. A series of surface lows are anticipated to form over the central CONUS, increasing the potential of episodic heavy precipitation for portions of the central and east-central CONUS. Mid-level low pressure over the western CONUS may support episodes of high wind speeds across the West. HAZARDS High risk of much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic,Sat-Sun, Apr 18-19. Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Sat-Mon, Apr 18-20. Slight risk of much above normal temperatures across portions of the southeastern CONUS and Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat-Wed, Apr 18-22. Slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation for portions of the Great Lakes region, Southern and Central Plains, and the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Sat-Wed, Apr 18-22. Slight risk of high winds for much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, Sat-Wed, Apr 18-22. Possible flooding for much of Wisconsin and Michigan. Rapid Onset Drought risk across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina DETAILED SUMMARY FOR MONDAY APRIL 13 - FRIDAY APRIL 17: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SATURDAY APRIL 18 - FRIDAY APRIL 24: Multiple model ensembles continue to trend towards stronger ridging across the eastern CONUS compared to yesterday from the end of week-1 into much of week-2. This translates to model guidance and associated tools increasing chances for anomalous warmth across many of these areas. Multiple model ensembles suggest a southwestward shift of the greatest positive temperature anomalies from the Mid-Atlantic during the end of week-1 to southeastern CONUS including the Lower Mississippi Valley by week-2. Given increased anomalous warm temperature signals, a high risk is now designated for Southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Apr 18-19. The ECENS (GEFS) Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PET) shows at least a 70% (50%) chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the climatological 85th percentile. A moderate risk is designated for a greater expanse of these regions for Apr 18-20, where the ECENS (GEFS) indicates at least a 60% of exceeding this threshold. Slight risk is highlighted across parts of the southeastern CONUS and Lower Mississippi Valley, Apr 18-22, where at least a 20% chance of the 85th percentile being exceeded. The National Blend of Models shows some of these risk areas nearing record temperatures for this time of year, near or exceeding 90 deg F, which may be the first time of the season for some locations. Aforementioned warm temperatures across the southeastern CONUS combined with antecedent and anticipated dry conditions increases the likelihood of Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) across parts of the region. A risk of ROD is posted for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Additionally these conditions may also be conducive to enhanced wildfire risk across the southeastern CONUS, where there are currently active fires and the National Interagency Fire Center shows a moderate risk of wildfires across this region at the end of week-1. Multiple model solutions continue to depict lee cyclogenesis ahead of mid-level troughing across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. A broad area is highlighted with a slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation across portions of the Great Lakes region, Southern and Central Plains, and the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Apr 18-22. This area is designated for risk based on where and when there are increased probabilities for enhanced precipitation in uncalibrated and calibrated ensemble model guidance. Current soil conditions are not anticipated to favor widespread flooding in the heavy precipitation risk area, although localized flash flooding is possible with the potential of thunderstorms. Mid-level troughing is anticipated to track across the western CONUS, supporting a series of surface lows developing across the region. These lows combined with adjacent surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS results in a tight pressure gradient across the central CONUS. This supports the continued slight risk for high winds over much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, Apr 18-22. Given the extremely dry winter experienced over the West such winds present a potential wildfire hazard. Abundant snowpack over portions of northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula is beginning to melt. Additionally, over the last week the Great Lakes region has reported precipitation accumulations exceeding 2 inches in most locations. This has saturated soils and already lead to widespread river flooding, thus any additional water in the river systems will not be easily accommodated. Much of the Great Lakes is favored for above-normal precipitation and temperatures, accelerating snow melt and exacerbating the flooding potential. A flooding possible hazard is posted for most of Michigan and Wisconsin, where the confluence of these parameters is greatest. However, the threat of flooding is not limited to these areas alone, as lingering snow remains on the ground over portions of the High Plains as well. No hazard is issued for the Red River of the North or other watercourses in the region, although river rises are likely as snow melts and localized flooding may occur. No hazards are issued over Alaska, but flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice during river ice breakup season. The colder temperatures in the Week-2 Temperature Outlook increases the chances for delayed river breakup in Alaska and increases the potential of ice jam flooding. Check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center (https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap) for the latest conditions or advisories. Multiple ensemble members indicate possible Kona Lows forming northwest of Hawaii most likely toward the middle of week-2. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the state. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$