236 FXUS21 KWNC 111845 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 11 2026 SYNOPSIS: A mid-level low-pressure system over the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) is expected to increase the likelihood of much below-normal temperatures, snow, and wind in the region. While the potential for hazardous cold across the northeastern CONUS may persist through most of week 2, the overall pattern is predicted to become less certain over time. Additionally, there is an increased chance of Kona lows impacting parts of Hawaii, which could bring enhanced precipitation and occasional high wind gusts. However, the specific details of this Hawaiian weather potential remain highly uncertain. HAZARDS Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for the Upper Mississippi Valley, western Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Mon-Fri, Jan 19-23. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and southern Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Tue, Jan 18-20. Slight risk of high winds in portions of the Appalachians, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Tue, Jan 19-20. Slight risk of heavy snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Mon, Jan 19. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Great Lakes and Central Appalachians, Mon-Wed, Jan 19-21. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 - SUNDAY JANUARY 18: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR MONDAY JANUARY 19 - SUNDAY JANUARY 25: Early in Week 2, an amplified and progressive mid-level height pattern is expected, with strong agreement among multiple model ensemble means. This pattern forecasts mid-level ridging over the Northeast Pacific and western CONUS, with corresponding troughing over the eastern CONUS. By the middle of week-2, the 0Z GEFS forecasts a transition to mid-level ridging over much of the eastern CONUS. However, the ECENS favors a weaker ridge focused over the Southeast with continued weak troughing over the Northeast. The ECENS pattern would favor continued chances for much below normal temperatures to persist throughout much of week-2 in the north-central and northeastern CONUS. The Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) based on the ECENS favors 30-40% chances for temperatures to fall below the 15th climatological percentile across the region through much of week-2. The 0Z GEFS based tool, favoring a stronger ridge, has weaker probabilities over the northeastern CONUS by the middle of the period. As the 6Z GEFS has a colder solution for week-2, a broad slight risk of much below normal temperatures over much of the northeastern and back into the north-central CONUS for Jan 19-23. A slight risk of much below normal temperatures is also forecast over the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, southern Mid-Atlantic, and Florida for Jan 19-20. In this region, there is more confidence for mid-level ridging to build back into the area, reducing the risk for hazardous cold by the middle of week-2. Along and ahead of the cold air mass moving into the eastern CONUS, snow and wind remain a possibility early in week-2. Run-to-run continuity remains poor but there continues to be a chance for a coastal low pressure system to move up the Eastern Seaboard. Ensembles have a wide variety of solutions for the placement of this system, with the potential for some snow into the major Northeast metropolitan areas.Therefore, a slight risk of heavy snow remains posted for Jan 19. Downwind of the Great Lakes and into the Central Appalachians, lake effect snow remains possible with cold air advection over the lakes and upslope flow through the Allegheny Front through Jan 21. A slight risk of strong winds remains forecast over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Jan 19-20 associated with the potential for low pressure development. Dynamical model guidance is beginning to indicate increased chances for heavy precipitation across portions of the southeastern CONUS with increasing return flow from the Gulf of America by the middle to end of week-2. However, the current week-2 precipitation amounts are forecast to be less than 1.5 inches. Therefore, no corresponding hazard is posted at this time but this area will continue to be monitored. There are significant model differences in the GEFS and ECENS in terms of the placement of a mid-level ridge near Alaska. The ECENS favor the ridge to be further west over the Aleutians and Bering Sea, while the GEFS would bring this feature over western Mainland Alaska. The placement of this ridge has large implications on the temperature pattern across the state. The ECENS solution would favor a much colder pattern than the GEFS for week-2. Due to significant differences no associated hazards are specified for Alaska at this time. A series of Kona lows may impact parts of Hawaii during week-2. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the location, evolution, and magnitude of any hazardous conditions, but there is general agreement that precipitation over most of the state will be above normal for week-2. Potential impacts include periods of heavy precipitation, high winds, and significant waves. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt $$