112 FXUS21 KWNC 161800 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT June 16 2026 SYNOPSIS: Periodic high mid-level pressure over the western and southern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) favors unseasonably warm temperatures across the West and along the Gulf Coast, potentially resulting in extreme heat for many locations. A nearly stationary area of mid-level low pressure over the Great Lakes is favored to produce several rounds of precipitation across the central and eastern CONUS, some of which could reach hazardous criteria, although there is too much uncertainty at this time to designate specific associated areas with a heavy precipitation risk. HAZARDS Slight risk of extreme heat for Florida and adjacent regions, Wed-Tue, Jun 24-30. Slight risk of extreme heat for much of Texas, the Desert Southwest, and California Central Valley, Wed-Tue, Jun 24-30. Slight risk of extreme heat for the Interior Northwest, Wed-Fri, Jun 24-26. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19 - TUESDAY JUNE 23: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 24 - TUESDAY JUNE 30: Multiple model ensembles continue to depict a somewhat stationary pattern across North America during the week-2 period, with ridging generally indicated over the western CONUS and troughing over the Great Lakes. There is some model uncertainty with the GEFS being the outlier of a transition to troughing across the West by the middle of the period. Regardless of model differences the general pattern is likely to result in unseasonably warm temperatures across the West and bring potentially extreme heat along the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as most of Texas and the Central Valley of California. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) from multiple ensembles indicate at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding 100 deg F along the Rio Grande and in the Central Valley of California, and 110F for the Mojave Desert. Temperatures are not expected to get quite as high for central Texas but very high dewpoints are likely as a result of robust inflow of Gulf moisture throughout the forecast period. Therefore a slight risk of extreme heat is posted for these regions, valid for all of week-2 (Jun 24-30). Further north the PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding 95 deg F for interior Washington and Oregon, as well as the lower Snake River Valley early in week-2. While humidity is not likely to be much of a factor, this is well above the 85th climatological percentile and within heat criteria for the region. Today's model solutions indicate a potential moderation of temperatures later in the forecast period, so the valid period for the slight risk of extreme heat issued for this region is shortened to cover Jun 24-26 only. Enhanced subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic and Greater Antilles is indicated by multiple ensembles, favoring above-normal temperatures for Florida.Models favor this enhanced ridging to remain in place throughout the week, resulting in anomalously warm temperatures. While maximum actual temperatures are not that large, very high humidity has the potential to push apparent temperatures into hazardous criteria. Additionally, record to near-record high minimum temperatures are indicated by the National Blend of Models, bringing very little relief from heat effects during overnight hours. Given all this, a slight risk of extreme heat is posted for all of Florida and adjacent areas, valid for the whole week-2 forecast period. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$