747 FXUS21 KWNC 301831 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT April 30 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure continues to be favored over the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), bringing anomalously cold air and gusty winds to much of the region. Compared to yesterday there are increased signals in model guidance and tools for these hazards. Therefore moderate risks are designated for much below normal temperatures and winds at the beginning of week-2 for parts of the East. Freezing and near freezing conditions are possible in some areas, potentially damaging early spring blooms. Possible surface low formation in the south-central CONUS may bring heavy rainfall to portions of this region into the Southeastern U.S and gusty winds to portions of the Gulf Coast. HAZARDS Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for the Middle and Upper Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, Fri-Sat, May 8-9. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northern and Central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, Fri-Sun, May 8-10. Moderate risk of high winds for parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes region, Appalachians, and East Coast, Fri-Sat, May 8-9. Slight risk of high winds for much of the eastern U.S., Fri-Sun, May 8-10. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeastern U.S., Fri-Sun, May 8-10. Slight risk of high winds for parts of the central and western Gulf Coast, Fri-Sun, May 8-10. Slight risk of extreme heat for the Desert Southwest, Fri-Thu, May 8-14. Slight risk of extreme heat for central and southern Florida, Fri-Tue, May 8-12. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY MAY 03 - THURSDAY MAY 07: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY MAY 08 - THURSDAY MAY 14: There continues to be good model agreement indicating amplified troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging upstream across the West from the end of week-1 into the beginning of week-2. The center of the mid-level low is anticipated to be centered over eastern Canada by the beginning of the period. With this feature being more amplified and expansive compared to yesterday in the models at the onset of week-2 in addition to the orientation of this feature being favorable for surface high pressure sinking southward into the eastward CONUS from central and eastern Canada, the signals for cold have increased. Therefore a moderate risk of much below normal temperatures is designated for the Middle and Upper Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, May 8-9. The ECENS (GEFS) Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) show at least a 40% (30%) chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile climatologically dropping below 38 degrees F (freezing temperatures across the northern portions) across these areas, further supported by uncalibrated guidance. A broader area of slight risk is highlighted across portions of the Northern and Central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, May 8-10, where there is at least a 20% chance of temperatures reaching these thresholds. Any residual cold with freezing or near freezing temperatures may threaten vulnerable springtime vegetation, particularly in areas that have experienced early growth due to antecedent warmth during April. A series of surface lows and trailing fronts are anticipated to track across the north-central and northeastern CONUS. These features may bring gusty conditions to parts of the East. A moderate risk of high winds is designated for parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes region, Appalachians, and East Coast, May 8-9, where the ECENS PET shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile, with additional support from uncalibrated guidance indicating elevated chances of wind gusts exceeding 20 mph (35 mph locally). A broader area is highlighted with a slight risk across much of the eastern CONUS, May 8-10. Windy conditions combined with anticipated cold temperatures could support lower wind chill temperatures in some areas. With ongoing drought conditions and near to above normal temperatures favored for Florida and southern portions of Georgia and enhanced winds anticipated, there may be increased wildfire risk across these areas which already are experiencing active wildfires. The National Interagency Fire Center indicates a moderate risk of significant fire potential at the end of week-1 in these areas. Any precipitation occurring in the region may be brief and localized which may not offset the enhanced potential for wildfires. There is better agreement among models and increased chances of heavy precipitation across parts of the south-central and southeastern CONUS compared to yesterday. Possible surface low formation in the south-central CONUS shifting to the Lower Mississippi Valley combined with strong onshore flow associated with subtropical high pressure across the southeastern CONUS may bring enhanced rainfall to southern portions of the East. A slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeastern U.S., May 8-10. There is good agreement among the PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch across the risk area. Strong thunderstorms are possible across this region and adjacent areas of where this risk is highlighted, which could lead to localized flooding. Additionally a slight risk of high winds is designated for the western and central Gulf Coast, for the same period associated with these features. South of the mid-level trough across much of the East, positive mid-level heights are possible across central and southern parts of Florida, supporting increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the region. A slight risk of extreme heat is designated for this area, May 8-12, where maximum air temperatures have at least a 20% chance of exceeding the 85th percentile and 90 degrees F. Antecedent dry conditions may support higher temperatures. This hazard is further supported by indications of CPC heat tools. There is good model agreement among models indicating more amplified ridging across the West throughout much of week-2, translating to increased signals for anomalous warmth across the region. A slight risk of excessive heat is highlighted for the Desert Southwest throughout week-2, where PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile and 95 degrees F (100 degrees F locally). HeatRisk tools further indicate at least a moderate level of impact in this region. Over Alaska, models indicate possible surface low formation over the Gulf of Alaska which could bring unsettled weather to southern portions of the state. However, no widespread hazards are anticipated at this time. Additionally, the typical peak of the river ice breakup season is approaching, and ice jam flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice as conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$