234 FXUS21 KWNC 021732 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT May 02 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure continues to be favored over the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), associated with a strong cold front. Heavy precipitation is favored ahead of and along this cold front as it moves across the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states at the start of week-2. Much below-normal temperatures and gusty winds are favored in the wake of the front. Freezing and near-freezing conditions are possible in some areas, potentially damaging early spring blooms. HAZARDS Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for the central and eastern Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and parts of the Northeast and Upper Mid-Atlantic, Sun, May 10. Slight risk of heavy precipitation over much of the Gulf Coast region, Sun-Tue, May 10-12. Slight risk of heavy precipitation from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, Wed-Fri, May 13-15. Slight risk of high winds for the central and eastern Great Lakes region, Upper Ohio Valley, parts of the Appalachians, the Northeast, and the Upper Mid-Atlantic region, Sun-Tue, May 10-12. Slight risk of high winds over the south-central Great Basin, Sun-Wed, May 10-13. Slight risk of extreme heat for the Desert Southwest, Sun-Fri, May 10-15. Slight risk of extreme heat for central and southern Florida, Sun-Mon, May 10-11. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR TUESDAY MAY 05 - SATURDAY MAY 09: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SUNDAY MAY 10 - SATURDAY MAY 16: The mid-level trough predicted over the eastern CONUS is expected to weaken during week-2, while the mid-level ridge upstream over the West is forecast to strengthen. A strong cold front is predicted to push off the East and Gulf Coasts near the start of week-2. A slight chance of heavy precipitation (which exceeds the 85th climatological percentile and 1-inch) is depicted from eastern portions of the Southern Plains eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast, May 10-12. Gulf moisture is anticipated to advance northward over the Southern Plains with time, setting the stage for another developing frontal system over the Nation's midsection. The 6z deterministic GFS solution indicates surface dewpoints should recover fairly quickly along with surface-based CAPE over the western Gulf Coast region, increasing the chance for significant thunderstorm activity. The next frontal system (alluded to above) is predicted to approach the Appalachians by the second half of week-2, and forecast to merge with moist southerly Atlantic flow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting from the clockwise circulation of surface high pressure well out over the Atlantic. This second slight risk area of heavy precipitation is valid for May 13-15. A combination of the PETs and uncalibrated model guidance was used to determine the designated slight risk area, where about an inch of rain is forecast. Cold signals are gradually decreasing in spatial coverage and intensity across much of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS relative to yesterday. The moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures posted yesterday has been removed. The ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) support a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for the central and eastern Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and parts of the Northeast and Upper Mid-Atlantic, May 10. This means at least a 20% chance that minimum temperatures will fall below the 15th climatological percentile. There is also at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures dropping below 38 degrees F across this region, with freezing temperatures possible across the northern portions. Any residual cold with freezing or near freezing temperatures may threaten vulnerable springtime vegetation, particularly in areas that have experienced early growth due to antecedent warmth in April. A slight risk of high winds (>85th percentile and 20-25 mph) is indicated from the central Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley eastward to the Atlantic coast, from Maine to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, May 10-12. These are expected in the wake of the strong cold front that is forecast to move across the East Coast near the start of week-2. Increased wildfire risk is expected well to the south, over the Florida Peninsula, due to ongoing drought and extreme heat. Locally gusty winds accompanying the frontal passage may also increase the wildfire risk, though model guidance favors the stronger and more widespread wind signals farther to the north as noted earlier. A slight risk of high winds is also designated for south-central portions of the Great Basin, May 10-13. Typically during the springtime, any wind speed maxima associated with a substantial mid-level trough may mix down to the very warm surface, resulting in higher wind gusts. This is supported by the GEFS and ECENS PETs for wind speeds of at least 20-25 mph. South of the mid-level trough across much of the East, weak positive height anomalies are forecast across central and southern Florida, supporting increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the region. A slight risk of extreme heat is designated for this area, May 10-11, where GEFS and CANM maximum air temperatures have at least a 20% chance of exceeding the 85th percentile and 90 degrees F. Antecedent dry conditions may support higher temperatures. This hazard is further supported by indications of CPC heat tools. There is good agreement among models indicating more amplified ridging across the West throughout much of week-2, translating to increased signals for anomalous warmth across the region. A slight risk of excessive heat is highlighted for the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts throughout most of week-2, where PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile and 95 degrees F (100 degrees F locally). HeatRisk tools further indicate at least a moderate level of impact in this region. Hazardous heat signals are beginning to show up in parts of the Central Valley of California, which will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. Over the Alaska domain, models indicate possible surface low formation over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska which could bring unsettled weather to southern portions of the state. However, no widespread hazards are anticipated at this time. Additionally, the typical peak of the river ice breakup season is approaching, and ice jam flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice as conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories. FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa $$