427 FXUS21 KWNC 262009 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 26 2026 SYNOPSIS: Below-normal temperatures are forecast to continue across much of the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) into the beginning of February, although the most extreme cold is predicted to subside by the early part of week-2. Regardless, dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values are forecast and this will be further exacerbated by any residual impacts from the recent winter storm (which is still affecting New England) including reduced snow melt, power outages, and continued strain on heating resources. Efforts should be made to prepare for an extended period of bitter cold weather. Enhanced onshore flow increases the chance of heavy precipitation and high winds for southeastern and south-central Alaska through the middle of the period. HAZARDS Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for the southern Mid-Atlantic and southeastern CONUS, Tue, Feb 3. Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee Valley, and the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, Tue-Wed, Feb 3-4. Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures east of an approximate line that extends from the central Great Lakes region to the Florida Panhandle, Tue-Mon, Feb 3-9. Slight risk of heavy precipitation across south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska, Tue-Fri, Feb 3-6. Slight risk of high winds across south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska, Tue-Fri, Feb 3-6. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 29 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 02: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 09: Impacts from a major snow and ice storm may continue for a broad swath of the eastern CONUS through early this week. During the upcoming week, bitterly cold temperatures are forecast, which will help maintain any snowpack. The persistence of the cold pattern is associated with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO) which leads to positive (negative) 500-hPa height anomalies at the high (middle) latitudes. The GEFS and ECENS ensembles continue to depict the -AO peaking at around -5 standard deviations during the early to middle part of next week. Therefore, additional outbreaks of Arctic air are predicted to continue into at least early February. The ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PET) shows moderate probabilities (40-60 percent) of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th climatological percentile over the southern Mid-Atlantic region and Southeast, Feb 3. The GEFS PET supports only slight probabilities (20-40 percent). With the Arctic air predicted to persist, the ECENS PET is thought to be the better bet, and therefore a moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures is posted for this area and date. A slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is depicted for portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee Valley, and the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, Feb 3-4. East of the Mississippi River, there is a slight chance for much below-normal temperatures to continue throughout the week-2 forecast period, with a reinforcing blast of arctic air expected to move across this region during the second half of the period. Significant snowpack (4 inches or greater) deposited from the major winter storm system now exiting New England extends from about Indiana and southern Lower Michigan eastward to the northern half of the Atlantic Coast. This snowpack will help to extend the duration of unusually cold temperatures associated with Arctic air intrusions. There is significant model uncertainty in the timing of this reinforcing arctic air mass moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley region, with the GEFS bringing in the anomalously cold air faster than the ECENS, though both forecast this scenario possibly occurring during the latter half of week-2. Ridging across the West and surface high pressure over most of the CONUS favor enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation for most areas during week-2. A southern stream system is predicted by today's 12z deterministic GFS model to move across the northern Gulf of America later in week-1, and parallel much of the Atlantic coast early in week-2. However, it is not clear at this time how close the storm track will get to the coast, as the various models have not yet come into good agreement. This potential storm system could bring significant snowfall accumulations to portions of the East Coast, and will be monitored for another day or two before it moves into the week-1 time frame. Multi-model ensemble means are in good agreement indicating a persistent and anomalous 500-hPa trough extending from the Bering Sea and Aleutians to the north-central Pacific. This amplified mid-level trough is forecast to enhance onshore flow and increase the chance for heavy precipitation and high winds across south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska. Based on uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS ensembles and the PETs from these models, a slight chance of heavy precipitation and high winds (>85th climatological percentile) have been posted for these areas from Feb 3-6. Later in week-2, 500-hPa heights are forecast to rise from east to west across much of the state, as an amplified mid-level ridge expands northwestward and retrogrades into the region, favoring a drier pattern. FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa $$