999 FXUS21 KWNC 251854 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT July 25 2026 SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level high pressure is forecast to bring a prolonged heat wave to the West through the beginning of August. Antecedent dryness along with the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during the next two weeks supports an increased risk for the Rapid Onset of Drought to parts of the Great Plains and Corn Belt. A moisture surge associated with a tropical cyclone tracking northwest across the East Pacific along with the ongoing/predicted heat wave favors a renewal of an enhanced Monsoon during early August. Possible surface lows forming in the lee of the Rockies may support periods of high winds across the Northern and Central Rockies at the beginning of the period, which may lead to enhanced wildfire risk where hot and dry conditions are anticipated. HAZARDS High risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and California, Sun, Aug 2. Moderate risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southern Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and California, Sun-Wed, Aug 2-5. Slight risk of extreme heat for most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS and Southeast U.S., Sun-Sat, Aug 2-8. Slight risk of extreme heat for the Midwest, Tue-Wed, Aug 4-5. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Southeast, Sun-Mon, Aug 2-3. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Desert Southwest, Sun-Sat, Aug 2-8. Slight risk of high winds for the Northern and Central Plains, Sun-Tue, Aug 2-4. Rapid onset drought (ROD) possible for parts of the Great Plains and Corn Belt. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR TUESDAY JULY 28 - SATURDAY AUGUST 01: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 02 - SATURDAY AUGUST 08: The GEFS and ECENS are in good agreement and remain consistent in showing a highly amplified 500-hPa ridge peaking in strength by the end of week-1 when it becomes centered over the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) before becoming weaker by the start of week-2. This anomalous mid-level ridge continues to support a lingering high risk (>60% chance) of extreme heat for portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and California, Aug 2, with the Northern Great Basin being removed from the high risk and trimming parts of the Southern Plains. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) is highlighted across portions of the Southern Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and California, Aug 2-5, which also has slightly less coverage across the Southern Plains compared to yesterday. A slight risk (20-40% chance) is designated for most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS and Southeast U.S., with portions of the Northern Plains removed from the risk area. Heat tools indicate greater than 30-40% chances of actual temperatures or heat index values exceeding 105 Deg F across parts of the Great Plains, Desert Southwest, Texas, and California Valley, with the GEFS showing higher values of 110 Deg F. The National Blend of Models indicates near or record daily highs for parts of the southwestern CONUS at the beginning of week-2, as well as near to record nighttime lows across the southern tier of the CONUS, providing little to no relief in these areas. To the east of the Mississippi River, there is significant uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern and resulting potential for extreme heat. In general the models are less favorable compared to yesterday of a long duration of extreme heat across parts of the Midwest. Therefore the slight risk for extreme heat for the Midwest is designated for just a two-day period for now, Aug 4-5, but will continue to be monitored. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid July 21, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) expanded this past week across the Dakotas where Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) is well underway. Increasing 30-day precipitation deficits, high evapotranspiration rates, and the increased chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during the next two weeks support an enhanced risk of ROD across even more of the Great Plains and Corn Belt. As of 9am CST, Tropical Storm Genevieve is located well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This storm favors a moisture surge north from the Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the western CONUS ridge axis shifts northward, there would be an increasing chance of an enhanced Monsoon. A slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for the Desert Southwest where the PETs generally depict 3-day precipitation amounts exceeding the 85th percentile and 0.5 inch throughout week-2. A front is expected to become stationary from the coastal Carolinas southwest to the Florida Panhandle later next week. This front may enhance convection and the ECMWF PET supports maintaining a slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Southeast, primarily Aug 2, with lingering potential Aug 3. Surface lows may form in the lee of the Rockies at the beginning of the period, which may bring enhanced winds to the region. A slight risk of high winds is designated across the Northern and Central Plains, Aug 2-4, where wind gusts could exceed 34 kts (~39 mph). Gusty conditions combined with hot, dry weather may enhance wildfire risk for some of these areas. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$