268 FXUS21 KWNC 191904 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 19 2026 SYNOPSIS: Arctic air outbreaks are forecast to continue affecting the central and eastern U.S. through late January. From January 27 to 29, much below-normal temperatures and dangerously cold temperatures are most likely across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. A low pressure system is expected to develop near or offshore of the East Coast on January 28 or 29. During week-2, moderating temperatures are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Enhanced onshore flow may bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Pacific Northwest and southeastern Alaska from late January through the beginning of February. HAZARDS High risk of much below normal temperatures for the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians, Tue-Thu, Jan 27-29. Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for much of the central and eastern U.S., Tue-Fri, Jan 27-30. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for much of the central and eastern U.S., Tue-Mon, Jan 27-Feb 2. Slight risk of high winds for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Tue-Fri, Jan 27-30. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for southeastern Alaska and northwestern Washington, Tue-Mon, Jan 27-Feb 2. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 22 - MONDAY JANUARY 26: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 27 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 02: A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has become well-established over the Northern Hemisphere with positive (negative) 500-hPa height anomalies at the high (middle) latitudes. The GEFS and ECENS depict this -AO peaking at -3 to -4 standard deviations by early next week. This unusually strong negative phase of the AO will promote a series of Arctic highs to shift south from Canada into the central and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) through late January. The ECENS remains the coldest model solution. The much below-normal temperature hazards were based on a consensus between the ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) with the high and moderate risks corresponding to greater than a 60% and 40-60% chance, respectively, that temperatures fall below the 15th percentile for late January and also reach the NWS cold advisory criteria. The high risk of much below-normal temperature is valid from January 27-29 and is centered over the Ohio Valley, while a large moderate risk (January 27-30) extends from the Great Lakes and Northeast south to Central Florida. Subzero minimum temperatures may occur as far south as the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians with a freeze/frost risk for parts of the Florida Peninsula. The ECENS PET implies that there is more than a 20 percent chance of near record or record lows across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The ECENS and GEFS PETs support a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for the eastern third of the CONUS through February 2nd, but the anomalous cold is likely to shift more towards the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast later in week-2. The highly amplified 500-hPa trough could result in surface low development near or offshore of the East Coast on January 28 or 29. The ECENS has been quite consistent on a strengthening low pressure system. However, the west-to-east spread is large among its ensemble members with anywhere from along the Mid-Atlantic coast to well offshore of the East Coast. From January 27 to 30, a predicted tight pressure gradient supports a slight risk of high winds for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. These gusty winds could result in dangerously low wind chill values. Looking further out to the beginning of February, a weakening west-based negative NAO favors another winter storm risk for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. These winter storm risks for the East Coast from January 27 to February 2 will be closely monitored and a heavy snow hazard may be warranted in subsequent outlooks. Multi-model ensemble means are in good agreement with anomalous 500-hPa troughing over the Aleutians and north-central Pacific. This amplified mid-level trough is forecast to enhance onshore flow and increase the chance of periods of heavy precipitation from southeastern Alaska south to northwestern Washington. Based on the GEFS and ECENS PETs (20-40% chance of 3-day amounts to exceed the 15th percentile) and the persistent longwave pattern, the slight risk of heavy precipitation goes through the entirety of week-2. The placement of the amplified ridge axis over western North America will determine how wet the Pacific Northwest is during week-2. Model guidance has trended slightly closer to the West Coast the past few days which leads to a decreasing chance of hazardous precipitation for the West Coast. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh $$