272 FXUS21 KWNC 301901 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT July 30 2026 SYNOPSIS: A broad area of mid-level high pressure is anticipated to expand and amplify from the end of week-1 into the beginning of week-2, which may slightly amplify mid-period before shifting eastward to the central and eastern CONUS, with mid-level low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and Northeast. This pattern favors widespread increased potential of extreme heat across the CONUS shifting from the western to central and east-central CONUS over time. The combination of anomalously warm and drier than normal conditions is expected to enhance the risk for wildfire activity where numerous wildfire incidents have been reported within highlighted heat risk areas. Antecedent dryness along with the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during the next two weeks supports an increased risk for the Rapid Onset of Drought to parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. A more favorable monsoonal circulation supports an increased and potentially prolonged risk of heavy precipitation across the Desert Southwest and lower Four Corners. HAZARDS Moderate risk of extreme heat for portions of the West, Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Fri-Sat, Aug 7-8. Slight risk of extreme heat for most of the CONUS excluding the north-central and northeastern CONUS, and Appalachians, Fri-Thu, Aug 7-13. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Desert Southwest and adjacent regions, Fri-Thu, Aug 7-13. Rapid onset drought (ROD) possible for parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 02 - THURSDAY AUGUST 06: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY AUGUST 07 - THURSDAY AUGUST 13: Multiple ensembles indicate amplified mid-level ridging across much of the CONUS excluding the Pacific Northwest and Northeast during week-2. The ridge is anticipated to peak at the end of week-1 and beginning of week-2, possibly deamplifying slightly by the middle of week-2 and gradually shifting to the central and east-central CONUS by day 12 (July 11) before possibly restrengthening. Peak 500-hPa heights in the ECENS (GEFS) are anticipated to reach 597 (595) dm across the Southwest at the beginning of the period. This pattern favors widespread above-normal temperatures across the CONUS excluding northern New England, with broad areas of increased likelihood of extreme heat across much of the CONUS. The high risk of extreme heat in yesterday's outlook is discontinued in today's, with the pattern and heat signals peaking more towards the end of week-1 over the western U.S. A moderate risk of extreme heat (40-60% chance) is extended further east in today's outlook to include much of the West, and portions of the Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Aug 7-8. The slight risk (20-40% chance) has likewise been expanded further east covering most of the CONUS excluding the north-central and northeastern CONUS, and Appalachians for the entirety of week-2. The area in the Northeast has been discontinued today due to timing out during week-1. Enhanced dewpoints east of the Rockies may support higher heat index values. Dry air temperatures or heat index values may exceed 110 deg F across parts of the Desert Southwest and central CONUS, and 100 deg F in many other of the highlighted heat risk areas. The National Blend of Models (NBM) forecasts temperatures to approach and/or break records for nighttime minimums across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS, implying little overnight relief to the heat. Near to exceeding record high temperatures are possible across the southwestern and south-central CONUS. The combination of anomalously warm and drier than normal conditions is expected to be favorable for wildfire activity where numerous wildfire incidents (both contained and ongoing) have been reported within these elevated heat risk areas. A Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk is designated for parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley where 30-day precipitation deficits are greater than 2 inches and continued dryness and heat are forecast through early August. Across the Southwest, deterministic and ensemble based ECMWF solutions continue to point to increased dewpoints and total precipitable water content overspreading the Sonoran Desert, consistent with a Gulf of California moisture surge event by late next week. Given that tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific is favored to calm down in the wake of Genevieve, any gulf surge potential is most likely tied to the precursor pairing of a strong thermal low established over Arizona and easterly wave activity moving off of the Sinaloa Highlands of western Mexico to initiate a moisture event. Based on raw and calibrated precipitation tools, a slight risk of heavy precipitation remains posted and continues to be valid for all of week-2 due to the persistence of wet signals in the ECMWF PET associated with a favorable monsoonal circulation where additional gulf surge events are possible later in the period. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$