243 FXUS21 KWNC 291927 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 29 2026 SYNOPSIS: A chilly pattern is predicted for the eastern third of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during week-2. Multiple models are showing greater signals of much below normal temperatures during mid week-2, compared to yesterday. There remains significant uncertainty about the latter part of week-2 regarding the extreme cold extent. A series of surface lows may track across the northeastern CONUS including the Mid-Atlantic, as well as possibly across the East Coast during the period. These storms may bring periods of high winds to these areas and would lead to lower wind chill temperatures. Efforts should be made to prepare for an extended period of bitterly cold weather. A series of surface lows in the lee of the Rockies may support windy conditions across parts of the Central and Northern Plains, and Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period. HAZARDS Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of the Northeast, eastern Great Lakes region, Central Appalachians, and upper Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Mon, Feb 8-9. Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for most areas east of the Mississippi River, Sun-Thu, Feb 8-12. Slight risk of high winds over the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, eastern Great Lakes region, and Appalachians, Fri-Tue, Feb 6-10. Slight risk of high winds across parts of the Central and Northern Plains, and Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sun, Feb 6-8. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 01 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12: Anomalously cold temperatures are predicted for the mean week-2 period from the Mississippi River eastward. This cold pattern is consistent with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO). Multiple model ensembles are indicating a more amplified mid-level trough remaining longer across the East compared to yesterday. This translates to increased signals for hazardous cold, supporting a moderate risk of much below normal temperatures designated for portions of the Northeast, eastern Great Lakes region, Central Appalachians, and upper Mid-Atlantic, Feb 8-9. The GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) indicates higher probabilities compared to the ECENS, with the GEFS (ECENS) indicating peak probabilities on Feb 8 of at least a 50% (40%) chance of minimum temperatures falling to the lowest 15th percentile climatologically. A broad area is highlighted with a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for areas east of the Mississippi River, Feb 8-12, where and when there is the most agreement for widespread areas to reach cold weather advisory threshold. Below zero deg F wind chills are possible as far south as Virginia and Kentucky. A series of surface lows may track across the northeastern CONUS and/or the East Coast, bringing enhanced winds to parts of the East. The slight risk of episodic high winds has been expanded to include the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, eastern Great Lakes region, and Appalachians, Feb 6-10. A broad area and time period is highlighted with this risk since there continues to be significant uncertainty regarding the timing and location of these storms. The ECENS PET shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph, further supported by increased chances in the ensembles showing gusts exceeding this speed. Windy conditions would lead to lower wind chill temperatures across the region. Multiple surface lows are anticipated to form in the lee of the Rockies, supporting increased likelihood of high winds in the region. A slight risk of high winds is posted for parts of the Central and Northern Plains, and Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Feb 6-8. The ECENS and CMCE Probabilistic Extremes Tool shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile, further supported by ensemble model guidance of wind gusts. Surface lows are predicted to form over the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea during week-2. However, the intensity of the lows and orientation are not as conducive to wind speeds and precipitation amounts reaching hazardous criteria, although local areas across the south-central and southeastern Mainland and southeastern Alaska could have localized enhanced winds and heavy amounts of precipitation. Therefore, no associated hazards are included for Alaska in today's outlook. Multiple models continue to indicate the potential for Kona Lows approaching Hawaii during week-2, which could bring enhanced precipitation and gusty conditions to parts of the state. The CPC 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook indicates above normal precipitation favored for Hawaii, with the highest chances (50-60% chance) for islands west of the Big Island. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$