861 
FXUS21 KWNC 191812
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 19 2026

SYNOPSIS: Model guidance favors surface low pressure development over the Great 
Plains and active weather early in week-2, increasing the potential of heavy 
precipitation for portions of the Southern Plains, the Mississippi, Tennessee, 
and Ohio Valleys, Appalachians, and Southeast U.S.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Plains, the 
Tennessee, Ohio, and Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys, Southern 
Appalachians, and Southeast U.S., Mon-Wed, Apr 27-29.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 22 - SUNDAY APRIL 26: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR MONDAY APRIL 27 - SUNDAY MAY 03: Ensemble solutions from the ECENS and GEFS 
for 500-hPa height anomalies depict a shortwave trough moving from the western 
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) to the Great Lakes early in the week-2 period, as well 
as a surface low pressure forming in the lee of Rockies. These features are not 
particularly amplified but form while moderate return flow is established in 
the wake of a similar system active during week-1. This return flow increases 
available moisture to the developing system and is favored to enhance 
precipitation accumulations over portions of the southeastern CONUS. 
Uncalibrated probabilities from the GEFS and ECENS are both fairly bullish, 
with >50% probabilities of 3-day precipitation accumulations exceeding 1 early 
in week-2. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) from the GEFS and ECENS also 
indicate a similar region highlighted with >20% chance of 3-day precipitation 
accumulations to exceed 1. Therefore a slight risk of heavy precipitation is 
continued for portions of the Southern Plains, the Tennessee, Ohio, and Lower 
and Middle Mississippi Valleys, Southern Appalachians, and Southeast U.S., 
valid Apr 27-29.



Surface winds are likely to be enhanced by this passing system as well, 
although guidance from the GEFS and ECENS PETs for maximum wind speed show no 
signal at the 25mph threshold, which precludes the issuance of a high wind 
hazard. However much of the Great Plains, where models do indicate some signal 
at the 20mph threshold, is currently in drought and with dry and stressed 
vegetation. These conditions combined represent a significant risk of wildfire 
activity, and care should be taken to minimize the potential of wildfire 
initiation.



No hazards are issued over Alaska, but flooding can occur this time of year 
with little or no notice during river ice breakup season. Check with the Alaska 
Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions or advisories.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran 

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