899 
FXUS21 KWNC 161746
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 16 2026

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure across the southern contiguous U.S. may 
support lingering increased chances for much above normal temperatures across 
the Desert Southwest at the beginning of the period. Much of the anomalous 
warmth and heat is anticipated to occur prior to week-2. For Alaska, a surface 
low over the Gulf of Alaska may bring high winds to southern coastal portions 
of the state at the beginning of the period.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for the Desert Southwest, Tue, 
Mar 24.

Slight risk of high winds over portions of coastal southern Alaska and 
Southeast Alaska, Tue-Thu, Mar 24-26.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY MARCH 19 - MONDAY MARCH 23: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR TUESDAY MARCH 24 - MONDAY MARCH 30: Multiple models continue to indicate 
positive mid-level height departures across parts of the central and western 
and central CONUS during week-1, significantly weakening by the onset of 
week-2. By week-2 there is some disparity across model ensemble means regarding 
the extent of the positive mid-level height departures. A fairly transient 
pattern is anticipated across the CONUS, with a possible mid-level shortwave 
tracking across the central and eastern CONUS during the earlier portion of 
week-2 followed by a shortwave moving across the west toward the latter part of 
week-2.



With mid-level high pressure lingering across parts of the southwestern CONUS 
at the start of week-2 from the end of week-1, so will increased chances of 
much above normal temperatures. A slight risk of this hazard is designated for 
the Desert Southwest, Mar 24, where the GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes 
Tool (PET) indicates at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding 
the 90th percentile, climatologically, and 90 deg F. The National Blend of 
Models shows the potential for near record breaking temperatures in the mid 90s 
deg F in the risk area. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate thereafter 
with decreasing positive mid-level height anomalies.

The aforementioned possible mid-level shortwave trough tracking across the 
central and eastern CONUS at the earlier portion of week-2 could bring rainfall 
to some areas of the East, although not anticipated to reach hazards criteria. 
Another shortwave mid-level trough is predicted to track across the West during 
the latter part of week-2, with a potential surface low and associated trailing 
front ahead of this feature. This pattern could support enhanced precipitation, 
thunderstorms, and high winds, across the Great Plains and Midwest. This area 
will be monitored closely in the upcoming days for the possible addition of 
associated hazards.



Amplified mid-level low pressure predicted for much of Alaska during week-1 is 
anticipated to weaken significantly by the onset of week-2. Therefore, the much 
below normal temperature hazard is discontinued in todays outlook. Surface low 
formation over the Gulf of Alaska with adjacent surface high pressure to the 
North and East across Mainland Alaska and western Canada may support a tight 
pressure gradient across southern coastal Alaska. Thus a slight risk of high 
winds is continued for portions of coastal southern Alaska and Southeast 
Alaska, Mar 24-26.



A surface low north of Hawaii could continue enhanced rainfall for parts of the 
state at the beginning of the period, in addition to a return to wet weather 
towards the latter portion of week-2.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou 

$$