440 FXUS21 KWNC 061745 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT October 06 2026 SYNOPSIS: A stalled frontal boundary may linger across or near the Gulf Coast and Florida from the end of week-1 into week-2. There may be localized areas of heavy precipitation in the region, but with surface high pressure anticipated to build across the Southeast, there is decreased chances for widespread heavy rain. Surface low pressure over the Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula, and the Gulf of Alaska, in addition to remnants of recurving tropical cyclone activity in the West Pacific, may impact portions of southern Alaska. As a result, there is an increased likelihood of episodic high winds across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal portions of southwestern, southcentral, and southeastern Alaska throughout week-2 as well as heavy precipitation for parts of southcentral and southeastern Alaska during the middle of the period. HAZARDS Moderate risk of periods of high winds across south-central and southeastern Alaska, Wed-Sun, Oct 14-18. Slight risk of high winds across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal portions of southwestern, south-central, and southeastern Alaska, Wed-Sun, Oct 14-18. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Thu-Sun, Oct 15-18. Flooding possible for much of the eastern and central Gulf Coast region, including northern and central Florida. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 09 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 13: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 20: The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE ensemble means indicate mid-level troughing over the Interior West at the beginning of week-2 shifting eastward with time. The ECENS retains a stronger southern stream trough across the southwestern CONUS with northern stream troughing propagating eastward. Meanwhile the GEFS has a more amplified ridge (trough) across the West (East), and the CMCE more akin to the ECENS. Anomalous warmth is anticipated for the western CONUS but no heat hazards anticipated at this time. There continues to be good agreement among models regarding amplified troughing across the northeastern Pacific supporting an active period of weather for southern Alaska. A stationary front may linger across the Gulf Coast and Florida from the end of week-1 into week-2. This pattern may bring localized enhanced precipitation although at this time there is less support in the model guidance and tools of widespread precipitation for the region. Surface high pressure anticipated to build across the Southeast decreasing chances of heavy rain, with much of the potential for enhanced moisture from tropical disturbances from the Bay of Campeche expected to time out by the beginning of week-1. Therefore the slight risk of heavy precipitation is discontinued at this time. Rainfall in the region during week-2, even if not considered heavy, may support continued possible flooding across much of the Gulf Coast region including northern and central Florida given anticipated heavy rain during week-1 (ranging from 3-5+ inches near the coast). Caution is highly advised with regard to flooded roads and waterways and if widespread flooding is occurring in your area. An amplified 500-hPa trough over the Bering Sea and western Alaska is likely to promote a series of low pressure systems that track from the Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. Additionally, tropical activity in the western Pacific is anticipated to continue into week-2, which often recurve, become absorbed in the westerlies, and may enhance wind speeds and precipitation downstream over Alaska, with the impact of high winds being of greatest concern. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of episodic high winds is posted for south-central and southeastern Alaska, Oct 14-18, with a broader slight risk (20-40% chance) across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal portions of southwestern, southcentral, and southeastern Alaska for the same valid period. PETs indicate enhanced probabilities of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 40 mph in the highlighted risk areas, further supported by ensembles showing increased chances of wind gusts exceeding 50 knots (57 mph). A slight risk of heavy precipitation is designated for parts of southcentral and southeastern Alaska for Oct 14-18 when and where models indicate the greatest likelihood of heavy precipitation, with PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day accumulated precipitation exceeding the 85th percentile and uncalibrated daily totals reaching 2 inches or greater. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$