410 ACUS1 KMKC 071252 SWODY1 MKC AC 071250 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 071300Z - 081200Z NO SVR TSTMS FCST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ENV MLD BPI LND CPR 25 NE LAR FCL 40 WSW COS 30 SE MTJ 4HV 60 SW DPG ENV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MSN LNR RST MKT 35 NE RWF 65 ENE ELO. --- SYNOPSIS --- PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER CONUS THIS PERIOD. MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE SHALL BE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CA COAST. NRN PORTION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN PLAINS TODAY AND OVER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS NOW EVIDENT WRN SD WILL SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH DAY...YIELDING INTENSE LOW INVOF SOO REGION BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. --- UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES --- ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SCANT...300-900 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS GET JUXTAPOSED BENEATH 7-8 DEG C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED IN NRN PLAINS RAOBS ATTM. THOUGH AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF DAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT NEAR FRONT AND SURFACE LOW BY DARK. DIURNAL SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL BECAUSE OF WEAKNESS OF MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL TSTM POTENTIAL. AFTER DARK...INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FIELD WILL SET UP ATOP NOCTURNALLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER -- FROM WI ACROSS UPPER MI...NRN LM...LS...AND NRN LOWER MI. EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN 800-900 MB LAYER TO YIELD ELEVATED MUCAPE 300-700 J/KG... SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. --- CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION --- 7-8 DEG C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT NOT EXPECTED WITH CAPE REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW -- AOB 300 J/KG MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/01 NOTE -- WMO HEADERS FOR SPC PRODUCTS WILL CHANGE AFTER THIS OUTLOOK...EFFECTIVE 1300 UTC 07 NOVEMBER.