816 
FOUS30 KWBC 082321
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Transverse Range of Southern California...
The latest 12Z multi-model consensus suggests a modest atmospheric
river and an associated Pacific cold front advancing inland across
central and southern CA later Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
This will be driven by the approach of an amplifying upper-level
trough and associated closed low from offshore. The latest
GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to
500 kg/m/s. However, this moisture transport along the front is
expected to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse Range,
which may foster by the end of the period some heavier
orographically focused rainfall. A look the 12Z EC-AIFS guidance
suggests areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
as having the greatest concerns. Deterministic guidance suggests as
much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow into the terrain
coupled with the front may support isolated heavier totals closer
to 3 inches. Will hold off on a Marginal Risk for now, but an
upgrade may need to considered with future updates, and especially
given some of the runoff sensitivities with burn scars and the
sloped terrain.

Orrison


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt