543 FOUS30 KWBC 150840 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 340 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid-level low will cut across the Southeast and into the Atlantic today. A squall line propagating through the Central Gulf Coast this morning will weaken into more of a QLCS as it progresses through the Southeast this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm are possible over portions of Alabama, Georgia and Florida, where instability will be the greatest (300-600 J/Kg MUCAPE). That combined with PWATs in the 1-2" range and a 30-40kt LLJ could generating efficient rain rates capable of producing isolated flash flooding. Relatively dry soils and the progressive nature of the QLCS mitigate the flash flood threat in the Southeast. A deeper layer moisture profile over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys may produce higher areal totals today, but the rates are more likely to be lower than in the Southeast due to less CAPE. That being said, some upslope enhancement is possible over portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, where soils are fairly saturated/susceptible to flash flooding. HREF probabilities seem to support the higher areal qpf footprint found in the CAMS over the Mid-Atlantic today. ...California... A deep low pressure system will slowly glide down the California coastline today, while the mid-level shortwave associated with it weakens. Rounds of showers and scattered to isolated thunderstorms could produce instances of flash flooding, particularly over urban areas, burn scars and saturated soils beginning this afternoon. Kebede Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will tap subtropical moisture. IVTs and PWATs will be above the 90th percentiles over portions of southern California. Strong upper level winds (125-150 kts) and a sufficient LLJ (30-40 kts) could support efficient rain rates along the coast. CAPE between 100-250 J/Kg within a moist environment could produce 1"/hr rain rates. Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement will likely occur) and urbanized areas are especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24 hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding), especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS and CMCE are well over 50%. Kebede Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... Another disturbance brings a weaker round of rainfall to the California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts). Ensemble exceedance probabilities (0-15%) and first guess fields support a marginal risk of excessive rainfall at this time. Kebede Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt