002 
FOUS30 KWBC 101805
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST...

...16Z Outlook Update...
Reference recently issued Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
for short-term details on flash flood potential from far southeast
Louisiana northeastward to western Georgia. Main change to the
outlook is to trim on the western and northern edges of the
Marginal Risk area where most of the risk of deep convection has
ended for the day. Flash flood potential will continue along a
linear mesoscale convective complex moving eastward across the
region. Some southeastward expansion of the Marginal was made in
southeastern Alabama given potential for convection to linger
through the afternoon hours - although the overall risk of flash
flooding should continue to become progressively more isolated with
time and eastward extent.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Update:

Expanded the Marginal Risk area southwest from the initial issuance
based on radar and satellite trends suggesting the risk of
excessive rainfall will persist beyond 12Z. Confined the expanded
Marginal risk along the axis of highest dew[point ahead of a cold
front moving eastward. Signals still suggest a downward trend
fairly early in the day. For additional details...refer to WPC
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013.

Bann

Previous Discussion...

Heavy rainfall should be on-goingacross portions of the Southern
Appalachians as the Day 1 period. Some of that rainfall will be
falling on at least partially saturated ground which has the
potential to produce flash flooding. The expectation is that the
threat for excessive rainfall should wane by 18Z today as the area
of rain moves out of the region.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt