671 FOUS30 KWBC 070740 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 240 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas. Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley, advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2 to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south- central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer southwesterly flow situated across the region. This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep- layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now, maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement. Kleebauer Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt