084 FOUS30 KWBC 191848 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 148 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... 16z update: No large or moderate sized adjustments were needed with respect to trends noted in the 12z CAM/HREF suite. ...S California... The next in parade of quick hitting shortwaves dropping south along the California coast remains on track with IVT values remaining at or below 400 kg/m/s, as it rounds Point Conception over the next 6 hours or so. Best ascent and QPF remains along the eastern mid to lower slopes (upper slopes are below freezing) across the Transverse Range and into the Peninsular Range. The overall rates/totals would not normally cause much concern, though recent moderate to heavy rainfall has saturated the upper soils and may still present increased run-off and locally minor flooding concerns. As such the Marginal Risk remains in place. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... Some 12z Hi-Res CAMs and rapid-refresh guidance like the RAP/HRRR/RRFS continue to occasionally show favorable WAA for some banded/training convective cells across the Cumberland Plateau and upper Ohio River Valley. A few runs even show perhaps a secondary band a tad further south across S KY/NE TN into W VA, and with lower FFG, have adjusted the Marginal slightly to incorporate these solutions. The risk for localized flash flooding remains highly contingent on short-term training factors, naturally lower FFGs and perhaps some rain on snow in the highest windward facing terrain in E WV where up to an 1" of snow-water equivalent (SWE) could add to run-off concerns (given snowpack is relatively warm...per NOHRSC). Still, magnitude and coverage remains best suited on the lower end Marginal Risk category at this time. Gallina ~~~Prior Discussion~~~ ...Southern California... A strong mid-level shortwave will bring an increase in rainfall to southern CA this morning into the afternoon. This is a quick moving system that will not have a lot of moisture to work with. Plenty of cold air aloft though, which will allow for upwards of a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE and some localized heavier rainfall rates. The quick cell motions and limited moisture will keep rainfall totals generally under 1", possibly as high as ~1.5" in favored upslope areas. Hourly rainfall should peak in the 0.25"-0.5" range, although very localized amounts over 0.5" are probable. Overall, we would not expect these totals or rates to result in a significant flood risk. Given high soil moisture from rainfall earlier this week, this additional rainfall could be enough to result in localized minor flood impacts. ...OH valley into central Appalachians... Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms may result in a localized flood risk today into tonight across portions of eastern KY, southern OH and into WV and southwest PA. WAA this morning into this afternoon will result in an uptick in convection across this corridor, with the cold frontal passage tonight accompanied by additional showers and thunderstorms. By late tonight much of this region could be looking at 1-2" of rainfall, with localized totals potentially getting into the 2-3" range. The 06z HRRR and 00z Gem Reg are in good agreement on this axis of heavier rainfall, with the 00z ECMWF and AIFS in the same ballpark as well. Not really sure why the 00z ARW, ARW2, 3km NAM are so sparse with convection and light with rainfall totals. Their evolution is not supported by the favorable mesoscale and large scale pattern, and so prefer leaning towards the wetter non- ncep guidance and recent HRRR runs. Based on forecast instability and recent HRRR output, hourly rainfall could locally approach and exceed 1" across this corridor both with the WAA convection and cold frontal activity. NASA SPoRT soil moisture analysis shows above average soil saturation across this region as well. So, while not expecting widespread or significant flood impacts, the combination of total rainfall locally exceeding 2", hourly rainfall approaching 1", and high soil saturation...suggests that at least some minor runoff concerns could evolve today into tonight. An axis of stronger convection may materialize farther northwest of the Marginal risk across portions of IL/IN/OH. While heavier short term rates are likely here, the current expectation is that activity will be more progressive and thus the higher rates more short lived. Soil conditions are also considerably drier across this corridor, and so we will not include this region in the Marginal risk for now. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Chenard Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Chenard Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt