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FOUS30 KWBC 231918
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Mar 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Santorelli

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Western Washington State...

A round of heavy precipitation on Tuesday looks likely with a 
strong frontal system into the region more in the first half of the
period (12z Tues to 00z Wed). Limited instability should keep rain
rates in check, and lower snow levels may allow for more 
precipitation to fall as snow. So, while this area will continue to
be monitored, no Marginal Risk ERO is needed still at this time.

...Northeast Florida...

A nearly stationary front near the coast of St. Augustine/Daytona 
Beach may support slow moving convection forming over/near I-95 in
that area. Any storms that form will be capable of producing heavy
rain but very dry soils and generally flat, flood- averse drainage
basins should limit the overall risk. Still, any stationary storms
that do form over this semi- urban area for an extended period 
could result in localized flooding/ponding, so will need to 
monitor for a possible Marginal Risk upgrade.

Santorelli

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Santorelli


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt