674 
FOUS30 KWBC 040025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Tue May 05 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue May 05 2026 - 12Z Wed May 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

21Z update... Only adjustment made to the current Marginal Risk
area was to reduce portions of northern Arkansas. Still expecting
a southwest to northeast axis of rainfall to align ahead of and
along a cold front from northeast Arkansas to western New York.
Areal averages of 1 to 2.5 inches with the higher end generally
focusing within the Ohio Valley. In general this will be a
beneficial rain however there may be isolated areas where rain
rates lead to local flash flooding.

Campbell

Deep layer southwesterly flow leading into the start of the period
will be drawing moisture into parts of the Plains and then
downstream toward the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. As a trough
amplifies over the central part of North America and a jet streak
forms over the Southwest US and approaches the Plains...the chance
for showers and thunderstorms increases along and ahead of a
develops surface front. With precipitable water values of 1.75 to
1.9 inches embedded within a broader 1.5 to 1.75 area...which was
pushing two standardized anomalies greater than climatology for
this time of year--locally heavy rainfall and the associated risk
of localized flooding from late Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday is possible.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt