516 
FOUS30 KWBC 120811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue May 12 2026 - 12Z Wed May 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN FLORIDA...

Heavy rainfall possible along the eastern coast of Florida during
this period as a cold front advances southward through the state.
Onshore flow along with pooled PW values in excess of 1.75 inches
will help fuel enhanced rainfall initially. Diurnal seabreeze 
effects will interact further with the cold front, with a 
convergence axis expected along the east coast of Florida.
HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest a high likelihood (over 
90%) of QPF exceeding 3 inches, and a moderate chance (around 
60-80%) over the urban center of Jacksonville. Due to ongoing 
drought conditions, most of the rainfall will be beneficial which 
will result in a low-end marginal threat for much of the eastern 
coastline of Florida.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu May 14 2026 - 12Z Fri May 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu May 14 2026 - 12Z Fri May 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt