163 FOUS30 KWBC 130756 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained for this period from eastern Minnesota to Lower Michigan. Although there was a modest decrease in the neighborhood probabilities for >1" totals, there still 20 to 40% across eastern Wisconsin and western Michigan as a formidable LLJ and increasing convergence within a progressing warm front could very well maximize the potential for heavier precip. Some rivers and streams across the region have ongoing minor flooding and any additional rainfall could speed up snow melt. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION... A developing upper jet coupling will likely aid in regional ascent with fairly generous instability axis situated from the Corn Belt to the southern Great Lakes and points south. Multiple areas of convection expected for this period from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. The main area of focus will be over the Midwest where guidance is depicting several hours of cells producing up to 1.5 inches/hr rainfall rates from Iowa to western New York and SPC has identified this part of the country as having an Enhanced Risk for severe weather that includes the potential for damaging winds, very large hail and tornados. Meanwhile convection will fire up ahead of the dryline and approaching cold front across the Plains. The environment will be favorable for a few mesoscale convective systems to develop and the limited eastward progression will likely result in areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk area span from the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Midwest and western Great Lakes. SPC has highlighted much of the same area as having a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION... The overall setup will be very similar for this period just shifted a bit to the east. SPC continues to have a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a potential for tornadoes while WPC maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from eastern Texas to the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Areal averages will generally be less than 1.5 inches but a few locations may exceed 1.75 inches. Guidance still has a fair amount of r spread on where some of the highest amounts will occur but consensus is hinting southeast Oklahoma to the Ozark mountains with a secondary focus from central Illinois to northwest Ohio. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt