105 
FOUS30 KWBC 210730
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

An axis of heavier rainfall associated with fast-moving but
training showers and thunderstorms across portions of central
Alabama and Georgia into southern South Carolina could locally
produce rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. These showers and
storms may train to some extent. Ultimately despite the potential
for storm total rainfall in some of these areas to exceed 2 inches,
FFGs across this region remain very high due to recent dry weather.
The risk of flash flooding still remains below 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS 
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

An atmospheric river (A.R.) of moisture directly out of the 
tropics will take aim at much of the West Coast on Monday. A pair 
of lows will help direct that rainfall from as far south as 10N and
aim it from southwest to northeast at northern California, western
Oregon, and portions of southern Washington. While the tropical 
connection will be there, the lows off the coast will be rather 
weak and generally meandering. Thus, while rainfall rates may 
exceed 1/2 inch per hour at times, totals are unlikely to cause 
more than isolated flash flooding since upslope and forcing will be
somewhat lacking. The inherited Marginal Risk is essentially 
unchanged, other than removing a portion of the Washington Cascades
where snow is likely to be the dominant precipitation-type. The 
A.R. should very slowly drift south down the coast, so the flooding
threat due to heavy rain should ease with time into Washington,
while increasing into California.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt