836 FOUS30 KWBC 170052 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 752 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The heaviest rainfall has generally come to an end across the central and southern CA coast resulting in a lowered threat of additional flash flooding through the overnight. However, the post-frontal environment will support upwards of 500 j/kg of CAPE, which combined with additional shortwave energy moving across, will likely result in scattered convective showers persisting. These showers will be capable of briefly heavy rates, but they should be quick moving, reducing the duration of these higher rates. A quick 0.25" of rain is likely within any heavier showers, but total additional rainfall should stay below 1" across most areas (locally up towards 1.5" in the most favored upslope areas). Localized additional flood impacts are possible, but the coverage and magnitude of impacts should be less than what occurred earlier today. Thus we were able to lower the ERO risk to the Marginal level. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... 20Z Update... Generally no changes to the synoptic scale setup for this period as the 12Z guidance agrees in allowing for additional Pacific shortwave energy and moisture transport to arrive across much of CA. By midday Tuesday, this new energy along with a cold front will drive a westerly low-level jet of as much as 40 to 50+ kts into the coastal ranges of central CA, including the Bay Area, with the front and onshore flow then settling south toward the Transverse Range by Tuesday night. IVT magnitudes are forecast to rise as high as 300 to 500 kg/m/s which coupled with warm advection and upslope flow into the terrain should foster some scattered instances of rainfall rates at least approaching a 0.50"/hour. Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the lower elevations with 2 to 4 inches possible for the higher terrain and especially down across the Transverse Range. Given increasingly moist/wet antecedent conditions in the wake of the day 1 storm system impacting the region, these additional rains may foster at least some runoff concerns, with potential for renewed areas of urban flooding and at least an isolated flash flood threat near more sensitive sloped terrain and especially any burn scar areas. The Marginal Risk area was expanded just a bit, especially with respect to the Bay Area, but otherwise changes to continuity are minimal. Orrison ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~ Another mid-level trough dives south along the West Coast on Tuesday, sending another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms into the central and southern California Coast. Ingredients will be less impressive on Tuesday than today, thus a marginal risk from the Santa Cruz Mountains down through the San Diego metro will suffice. Snow levels will also be lower so upslope portions of the Transverse Ranges will likely see snow where they see rain today. Saturated soils from antecedent rainfall will be an important factor in any isolated flash flooding that occurs within the marginal risk area. Kebede Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Orrison Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt