937 
FOUS30 KWBC 190009
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026

A potent mid-level shortwave/closed low is forecast to bring
another round of heavier precipitation to southern CA beginning
Thursday morning, ahead of a progressive cold front. Peak model
consensus of MUCAPE no greater than 250 J/kg and IVT values of
300-400 kg/m/s appear to be slightly weaker than what was
associated with the round of heavier rain which impacted the
Transverse Ranges early Wednesday morning. However, locally high
48-72 rainfall totals have impacted portions of southern CA along
with a number of flooding reports since Monday.

The next round to affect southern California's Transverse and
Peninsular Ranges is expected to bring peak hourly rainfall values
in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range on Thursday (12Z HREF probs for
greater than 0.5 inches in 1 hour were 30-40 percent), from roughly
15Z/18 to 03Z/19, advancing southward along the coast with time.
Given the progressive nature, peak total rainfall is forecast to
fall in the 1 to 2 inch range for the Transverse and Peninsula
Ranges but could be a bit higher for the Peninsular Ranges given a
longer and more favorable fetch of low level moisture into the
region. While the 12Z NAM_nest is likely overdone, it does show 3+
inch potential for localized areas below snow levels which look to
briefly rise in the 5000-6000 foot range. Any flood related
impacts should remain isolated and minor in magnitude.

Otto


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt