439 FOUS30 KWBC 120029 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 729 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Hurley Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Pereira Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 ...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions of the Southern Plains on Friday... 20Z Update... Following the general trend of the 12Z guidance (apart from the NAM), adjusted the Marginal Risk a little south across northwestern Texas and western Oklahoma. Also, extended the area farther east across eastern Oklahoma into the Ozark Region. Some of the deterministic models are presenting a signal for redeveloping, elevated convection across this area Saturday morning. The Marginal Risk was extended to encompass where the GEFS/ECENS are showing higher probabilities for amounts exceeding an inch. Similar to the areas highlighted further west, expect this to be a mostly beneficial rain. However, latest FFGs and soil moisture profiles suggest this area may be a little more susceptible to isolated runoff concerns than areas farther west. Previous Discussion... A southern stream shortwave should be making its way into portions of the Southern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. Precipitation is expected to develop and spread quickly into the south-central states from Friday into early Saturday morning. Given antecedent conditions...rainfall from this system should generally be beneficial. There is uncertainty with respect to how much the southern stream shortwave phases with the northern stream as it moves across the southern half of the country and there are still some signals for there to be window of opportunity for training of cells in a region with above moisture anomalies. As such...the Marginal risk area was fairly broad to capture the range of solutions shown by the suite of 00Z guidance. Pereira/Bann Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt