475 
FOUS30 KWBC 020014
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026

The guidance QPF signal for moderate to heavy rainfall in and near
MS does not reach any flash flooding threshold on its own.
However, there is an area of ice lingering in and near portions of
the Mid-South/Delta Region of MS -- deposited 7-8 days ago -- that
could become a more important aspect to consider for excessive
rainfall/flash flood concerns should the guidance/QPF maximum
preference shift northwest into that area. It's unclear either how
fast the icing -- with liquid content of 1-2" -- would melt. If it
doesn't melt substantially, there would be a risk of runoff if
heavy enough rain falls upon the ice. Can't rule out a Marginal
Risk at some point should the guidance QPF maximum and ice area
align better in later cycles.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt