806 FOUS30 KWBC 160049 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 749 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... An uptick in rainfall intensity is expected later this evening across portions of the central/northern CA coast as a cold front moves inland. There is some weak instability near this front, and recent HRRR runs indicate that low level convergence associated with the front will push inland over the next several hours resulting in an expansion of rainfall, including some embedded heavier rates. The general consensus is for 1-2" of rain through 12z anywhere from Santa Cruz county northward towards Sonoma, Napa and Lake counties. Recent HRRR runs indicate hourly rainfall upwards of 0.5" anywhere within this corridor, with highly localized rates around 0.75" more focused along the immediate coast. These rainfall amounts will result in isolated flood impacts through the overnight hours, especially across more susceptible urban areas. It's looking more likely that any heavier rainfall farther south will hold off until after 12z, but with the risk picking up not long after 12z, and some inherent timing uncertainty, we will let the Marginal risk ride. But the main threat area through 12z is farther north from around Santa Cruz county towards Lake county. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...21Z Outlook Update... The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Models are consistent with depicting an eastward-translating line of convection, with strong upslope and abundant moisture contributing to locally heavy rainfall. That rainfall is expected to occur across sensitive terrain areas of southern California - particularly near the Transverse Ranges where burn scars may promote debris flows. Convection should move fairly quickly through the region over the course of the forecast period - though conditions will support local rain rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr at times near the strongest convection. See the previous discussion for more information. Cook ...Previous Discussion... An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will tap subtropical moisture. IVTs and PWATs will be above the 90th percentiles over portions of southern California. Strong upper level winds (125-150 kts) and a sufficient LLJ (30-40 kts) could support efficient rain rates along the coast. CAPE between 100-250 J/Kg within a moist environment could produce 1"/hr rain rates. Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement will likely occur) and urbanized areas are especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24 hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding), especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS and CMCE are well over 50%. Kebede Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...21Z Outlook Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing outlook mainly to account for northward trends in the location of heavier precipitation. Persistent onshore flow and cold air aloft over the region should continue to support scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm activity through much of the forecast period, with areas of 0.5-1.5 inch rainfall totals expected across much of the central and southern California coastal ranges. Some of this activity will interact with local burn scars and urban areas to pose a risk of excessive runoff/flash flooding. This risk should remain fairly isolated, and it is uncertain how far north this risk will extend. See the previous discussion for more information. Cook ...Previous Discussion... Another disturbance brings a weaker round of rainfall to the California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts). Ensemble exceedance probabilities (0-15%) and first guess fields support a marginal risk of excessive rainfall at this time. Kebede Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt