279 
FOUS30 KWBC 021926
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat May 02 2026 - 12Z Sun May 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The Marginal Risk area was dropped for the rest of this period for
northern Florida and southeast Georgia given the progressiveness of
the convection and rapidly decreasing risk of reaching/exceeding
FFG.

Campbell

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 03 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THEM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY...

21Z update... The latest trends keep a majority of the convection
along the eastern coastal areas and offshore which led to a minor
trimming of the western edge of the Marginal Risk area.

Campbell

Maintained the Marginal Risk area for a portion of the southeastern
Florida peninsula on Sunday. The area was along and south of a
southward advancing front where the airmass was characterized by
CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J per kg and precipitable water
values are forecast to be around 1.5 inches. Given the recent
dry spell, it appears that the greatest risk of excessive rainfall
will be in urban areas where the surface is largely impervious to
water. With the front progressing farther south with each model
run...the amount of territory at risk keeps shrinking and there may
be little to no need for an excessive rainfall area shortly.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Tue May 05 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt