230 FOUS30 KWBC 290017 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 717 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... 01Z Update: Despite a strong WAA regime ahead of a bombing surface cyclone over the central Midwest, appreciable instability is still lacking and has subdued rates towards 0.5-0.75"/hr over the past several hours, limiting the flash flood threat as a whole. Some areas have seen 1-2" over 3-hr spans which was enough to cause some minor flooding due to frozen grounds promoting run off. In any case, the trend over the past several runs of the CAMs has backed off on the threat for significant rains across the immediate lake shores with the threat actually maintaining a progressive motion through the remainder of the period. Cold frontal progression through the Ohio Valley will advance rapidly promoting some heavier rainfall along the front itself, but the setup will yield a low-end potential for flash flood concerns just due to the nature of the progressive forward motions. Considering the above, the SLGT was removed with a broad MRGL maintained from far southeastern MI through the immediate confines around the eastern Great Lakes. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman/Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman/Kleebauer Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt