035 
FOUS30 KWBC 220025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY...

...01Z Outlook Update...
Maintained a Marginal Risk area from southeastern Alabama to the 
far southern portions of the South Carolina Lowcountry. The threat
for isolated heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist 
through the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours as a 
slow-moving boundary remains centered over the region. Anomalous 
moisture (PWs at or above 1.50 inches) along the boundary, 
interacting with weak energy aloft will support additional shower 
and storm development, with some potential for training -- raising
the threat for localized heavy amounts. Short-term hi-res guidance
(HRRR/HREF) focuses the heaviest rainfall potential over 
southeastern Georgia, with the HREF indicating a high likelihood 
for localized totals exceeding an inch, with a low-end threat (~25 
percent probs) for amounts over 2 inches.

Pereira 


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

An atmospheric river (A.R.) of moisture directly out of the
tropics will take aim at much of the West Coast on Monday. A pair
of lows will help direct that rainfall from as far south as 10N and
aim it from southwest to northeast at northern California, western
Oregon, and portions of southern Washington. While the tropical
connection will be there, the lows off the coast will be rather
weak and generally meandering. Thus, while rainfall rates may
exceed 1/2 inch per hour at times, totals are unlikely to cause
more than isolated flash flooding since upslope and forcing will be
somewhat lacking. The inherited Marginal Risk is essentially
unchanged, other than removing a portion of the Washington Cascades
where snow is likely to be the dominant precipitation-type. The
A.R. should very slowly drift south down the coast, so the flooding
threat due to heavy rain should ease with time into Washington,
while increasing into California.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt