260 
FXUS01 KWBC 020830
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...A lifting frontal boundary will bring a swath of mixed
precipitation from the central to eastern U.S. today into
Tuesday...

...Locally strong thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across the
central Plains, while locally heavy rainfall is possible across
the Ohio Valley...

...Warmth will surge across the most of the CONUS this week,
feeling very much like Spring...

A band of rain and mixed precipitation is moving eastward across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This is an over-running synoptic
setup as a mid-level disturbance rides over a frontal boundary
draped along the South. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
from Indiana eastward to Pennsylvania as areas could see a few
inches of snowfall mixed with some sleet today. Additionally,
along the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic there is an increased
potential for ice accumulations. While most ice accumulations are
expected to range from hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch
, the Virginia and West Virginia Appalachians may see higher
accumulations from a tenth to three tenths of an inch. Therefore,
a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the higher elevations
of West Virginia. Additionally, areas west of I-95 for the
Baltimore and Washington metros may see 1-2 inches of snow late
this morning into the afternoon with a transition to freezing rain
possible Monday night.

A cold front moving through northern Texas currently will stall
today and eventually begin to move northward as a warm front by
Tuesday. As the warm front brings instability across Oklahoma and
Kansas, a mid-level disturbance will move into the region from the
West and provide upper-level shear. The conditions will be support
some severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal Risk with the main hazard being large hail. For threats
of flash flooding, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall extends
from Missouri to Ohio as moisture will pool along a warm front
located in the general region. Generally, this is expected to be a
lower end threat as the QPF signal looks to range from 1-3 inches
Tuesday and Wednesday and most of the region has dry soils.

Warm temperatures will be the theme of the week for most of the
CONUS. Amplified ridging will set-up across the central and
eastern U.S. and effectively push a warm front through the Arctic
high present across the Great Lakes. Daily high temperatures will
be in the low to middle 80s across much of the South this week. By
Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures in the middle to upper
70s will be possible farther north into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys as that front lifts out of the region. The West will cool
off as an upper trough and surface cold push through the region,
but temperatures are still expected to be slightly above average.



Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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