078 FXUS01 KWBC 312014 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 01 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 03 2026 ...Tropical Depression Five is forecast to intensify to tropical storm strength before making landfall over the upper Texas coast later on Tuesday... ...A moderate risk of excessive rainfall from northern Arizona to Utah through this evening... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, with a slight risk of flash flooding on Wednesday... As the threat of heavy rainfall continues across the Great Basin to the Four Corners, and late-summer heat spreads from the central U.S toward the eastern U.S., Tropical Depression Five (TD5) formed over the northern Gulf from the tail end of a front that moved into the eastern Gulf last Friday. Tropical Depression Five is forecast to track generally west-northwest passing south of Louisiana before making landfall over the upper Texas coast later on Tuesday. This system will increase the chance of squally showers and thunderstorms to affect southern Louisiana through Tuesday, followed by tropical-storm-force winds impacting the western Louisiana coast to the upper Texas coast later on Tuesday and Tuesday night. WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of these areas as well. Please refer to the latest updates on TD5 from the National Hurricane Center as a small system such as TD5 could be prone to quicker intensity changes. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough continues to move further into the western U.S. and interact with monsoonal moisture to produce fairly widespread heavy rainfall across the Four Corners states with embedded thunderstorms. WPC continues to highlight a broad slight risk of excessive rainfall for this general area of the Four Corners through tonight, with a moderate risk issued for northern Arizona to central through tonight. The associated heavy rain could lead to a rapid rise of water along small streams and narrow canyons/gullies, with burn scars being the most vulnerable location. The heavy rain threat appears to lessen and become much less widespread on Tuesday but a marginal excessive rainfall threat remains across the Four Corners states. Meanwhile, a rather deep low-pressure system across southern Canada continues to push a frontal system eastward across the Great Lakes triggering more showers and thunderstorms. A pair of warm/stationary fronts will focus a corridor of more widespread showers and thunderstorms from the lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England over the next couple of days. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear more likely along this corridor during the late-day hours, with a slight risk of flash flooding forecast for Wednesday. Meanwhile, additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the north-central Plains moving toward the upper Midwest through tonight near a meandering front and a wave of low pressure. By Wednesday morning, rain associated with the next Pacific front is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, late-summer heat reaching into the lower 100s will persist across the central Plains. The heat is forecast to spread eastward into the eastern U.S. over the next couple of days with highs reaching well up into the 90s for the interior Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon. Heat advisories are currently in effect for a large portion of the east-central U.S. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png $$