617 FXUS01 KWBC 041951 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026 Valid 00Z Mon Oct 05 2026 - 00Z Wed Oct 07 2026 ... Locally heavy rainfall will continue into Monday for southern Texas and northern Florida... ...An October heatwave will remain across central and southern California into this week... ... A cold front will bring an Autumnal chill to the Great Lakes and Northeast... Tropical moisture and a slow moving front across northern Florida into southern Georgia will continue to promote numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday with the threat of locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains active across the region through Monday evening with an additional 2-4 inches of rain possible. Meanwhile, southern Texas will continue to see locally heavy rainfall streaming in from the Gulf where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect tomorrow. Another couple of inches of rain are possible and will further saturate southern Texas, which has already had several inches of rain today. Urban areas, such as Brownsville, will be the most susceptible to flash flooding if storms are able to move inland from the coastline and train over a period of time. Turn around, don't drown. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will maintain a late season October heat wave across southern and central California into the Great Basin. Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal, bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast and adjacent urban areas, with some areas in the Central Valley of California soaring into the lower 100s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles and San Diego urban areas will provide little relief through the heatwave. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for much of Southern California and portions of the interior deserts, with Heat Advisories extending across the Central Valley and Bay Area. As for the rest of the Mountain West, the ridge of high pressure will hold on across the region, raising high temperatures into the middle and upper 80s, around 10-20 degrees above average for typical Early October temperatures. These unseasonably warm temperatures will combine with gusty winds and low relative humidity to also bring a fire weather risk on Monday for the upper Mountain West. In contrast to a summer feel-like heat across the West, a cold front moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon and across the Northeast on Monday will result in an autumnal chill. High temperatures in the 60s and even some upper 50s will be possible from Michigan to Maine with widespread morning low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s. This is one of the first cold shots of the fall season and will bring some agricultural risk. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for Monday morning across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The cold front will then progress southward and bring a taste of fall to parts of the Southeast as far south as Tennessee and the Carolinas by Tuesday. Expect high temperatures in the low 70s to the low 80s with cool morning low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Enjoy!! Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$