859 FXUS01 KWBC 190818 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 19 2026 - 12Z Sun Jun 21 2026 ...Significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding continues today across the Gulf Coast and Southeast... ...A developing low-pressure system renews the threat of numerous flash floods and severe storms to the Central and Southern Plains this weekend... ...Cold front will clear the East Coast, ushering in cooler and significantly drier conditions for the weekend, while the West remains hot to end the week... In the near term, much of our attention remains focused over the Gulf Coast States and Southeast as the remnant moisture from Arthur drives another round of significant flash flooding over an area which has seen double digit rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. By this morning, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast, overlapping with areas observing widespread flash flood impacts. While the rainfall forecast today is lower compared to yesterday, any additional rainfall in these extremely sensitive areas can quickly produce significant and life-threatening flash flooding. West of the hardest hit areas, the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains at large are also at risk for widely scattered flash flooding today as an approaching front interacts with the tropical moisture plume. The threat of scattered flash flooding will persist over the Southeast tomorrow as the front stalls over the area. At the same time tomorrow, a separate zone of impactful heavy rainfall and severe weather will emerge over the Central Plains ahead of a developing lee-side cyclone and cold front. The initial round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon should mainly produce severe weather impacts, including tornadoes, hail, and wind. By Saturday night, however, these storms should grow into a complex which could produce rainfall amounts locally exceeding 4 to 6 inches and numerous flash floods. As we look toward Sunday, the threat for scattered flash flooding is expected to shift eastward into the Midwest as the front and abundant moisture linger in the Heartland, while severe weather also remains possible in the Central High Plains. Meanwhile, across the Eastern U.S., the active cold front responsible for the recent severe weather will move off the Atlantic coast early this morning. In its wake, a gusty westerly to northwesterly wind will usher in a much cooler and comfortably dry post-frontal air mass, characterized by low dew points in the 50s. A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected in the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, with widespread high temperatures in the 70s and 80s. In contrast, unseasonably warm conditions will begin to expand across the Pacific Northwest under a developing upper-level ridge, where maximum temperatures are forecast to approach the 80s and lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Farther west, the Desert Southwest and the Central Valley of California will remain hot into the weekend, with highs hovering in the 110s and 100s, respectively. Asherman/Blanco-Alcala Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$