905 
FXUS01 KWBC 250712
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 12Z Mon May 25 2026 - 12Z Wed May 27 2026

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue across much of the
Southern U.S. through midweek with flash flooding and severe
weather concerns...

...Turning more active across the West as a large Pacific low
brings increasing shower and storm chances...

...Unseasonably hot weather is forecast across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest the next few days as temperatures soar into the
90s...

A series of upper-level disturbances interacting with a stalled
frontal boundary stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley to
the southern Mid-Atlantic will lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across much of the Southern U.S. the next few days.
Along and south of the boundary, a very warm, humid, and unstable
air mass is and will remain in place, setting the stage for heavy
rain and possible flash flooding through midweek. The Weather
Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall that covers much of the Southeast and central
Gulf Coast through this afternoon and evening, highlighting the
potential for clusters of thunderstorms with high rainfall rates
to produce scattered instances of flash flooding. Urban centers,
low-lying, and poor drainage areas would be the most at risk. The
flash flooding threat expands westward into Texas on Tuesday, with
the Weather Prediction Center issuing another Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall. In addition to the flooding threat, severe
weather will be possible as well, particularly across parts of
southwestern Texas. The main hazards from any strong to severe
thunderstorms include large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes.

Meanwhile, after a stretch of dry weather the past few days, the
West starts turning more active as moisture increases and a large
Pacific low pressure system swings into the Pacific Northwest and
spins over the Great Basin through mid to late week. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will ramp up daily, especially across the
higher valleys and mountainous terrain. A little snow is possible
across the highest elevations of the Cascades and the Sierra as
well, given a pocket of colder air aloft. At the very least, the
colder air will drop temperatures to near or even below average
across parts of the West after several days of above normal
temperatures.

With the colder air cooling off the West, well above normal warmth
will then surge across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
bringing at least a few days of summerlike heat. High temperatures
are expected to soar well into the 80s and 90s the next couple of
days, with a few places across eastern Montana possibly nearing
100 degrees, especially on Tuesday. This early season unseasonably
hot weather will have the potential to be hazardous, especially
for people who have not yet acclimated to hotter temperatures yet
this year. As a result, WPC's HeatRisk is forecast to climb to
moderate levels for a large portion of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest, with parts of eastern Montana and western North
Dakota possibly eclipsing major levels of HeatRisk. A cold front
may spark a few showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon,
but this is unlikely to bring much in the way of relief from the
heat.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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