042 FXUS01 KWBC 162029 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 421 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 17 2026 - 00Z Sun Jul 19 2026 ...Additional excessive rainfall likely across the Texas Hill Country today, with focus shifting toward the Big Bend on Friday... ...Anomalous heat and humidity persisting across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest while spreading into the northern Mid-Atlantic... ...Air quality alert from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes into the Northeast... ...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms persist across the interior western U.S with greatest flash flooding threat near the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico... ...Severe thunderstorms for portions of western Montana today; strong thunderstorms possible for northern New England today... As the anomalous upper high prolong a heatwave across the northern states, a slow-moving weather regime continues across the southern tier states where a stationary front remains from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. An upper-level low has migrated westward into the southern High Plains to support a renewed round of heavy thunderstorms across the Texas Hill Country. A continuous stream of Gulf moisture will interact with the upper low bringing additional rainfall amounts of 6-8" with locally 10+ inches today as these heavy thunderstorm clusters generally track northward from the Texas Hill Country through central Texas. There is ongoing flooding occurring across the region and any additional rainfall will likely exacerbate the situation. The focus of the heavy rainfall is expected to shift toward the Big Bend area, and possibly be confined to western Texas by Saturday morning. Hot and humid conditions expected to persist across the Great Lake and Northern Plains for several days. Daily highs will climb into the 90s to lower 100s. For New England, cooler air will punch into the region on the backside of the cold front. This cooler air will be reinforced as a secondary cold front approaches the region Friday. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will also will streaming into the northeastern quarter of the country. Meanwhile, another day of triple-digit high temperatures and elevated humidity is expected for the northern Mid-Atlantic before readings drop slightly into the 90s on Friday. Some strong thunderstorms are possible later today across northern New England prior to the arrival of the second cold front. In the western U.S., severe thunderstorms are possible later today across western Montana on the backside of a low pressure wave near the western end of the front. Meanwhile, monsoonal thunderstorms are forecast to track from north to south across the Four Corners region today under the influence of the upper low over the southern High Plains. The greatest flash flooding threat is expected to be near the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico for the next couple of days. More monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Intermountain West into the eastern portion of the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms will be lifting farther north into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later today as the stationary front gradually dissipates. The frontal wave over the northern High Plains will reach the central Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Scattered strong thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the upper Great Lakes on Friday, shifting to the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning as the frontal wave moves eastward. Kong/Campbell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$