684 
FXUS01 KWBC 282000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 29 2026 - 00Z Fri Jul 31 2026

...Severe weather and flash flooding expected across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through this evening; additional flash
flooding concerns across New England on Wednesday...

...Monsoonal moisture continues to foster numerous thunderstorms
and the risk of flash flooding over the Four Corners, Rockies, and
High Plains the next several days...

...Dangerous heat wave expands from the southern U.S. into the
Southwest and Intermountain West this week...


An unsettled weather pattern continues for the eastern U.S. as an
upper trough deepens over the region. At the surface, frontal
boundaries connected to a strong surface low over southern Canada
and draped across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast
will reinforce ongoing showers and thunderstorms. The
strengthening low, strong instability, increasing moisture, and
relatively weak storm motions will favor repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms along the frontal zone across the
Carolinas, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and New England through
this evening and overnight. With the high rainfall rates and
back-building nature of these storms, numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely, some of which may be significant. As a
result, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall was
expanded across parts of eastern PA, northern NJ, NYC, eastern NY,
western CT/MA and southern VT. A Slight Risk (level 2/4)
encompasses much of the Mid-Atlantic into New England.
Additionally, with the presence of instability, shear, and
moisture, the Storm Prediction Center continues to maintain a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Any strong to severe storms
may produce damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. On
Wednesday, the frontal boundary continues to slowly move
east/northeastward, bringing another round of scattered
thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall across the Northeast.
Flash flooding will again be a concern across parts of New
England, with another Moderate Risk (level 3/4) now in effect.

Across the Four Corners, Rockies, and High Plains, surges of
monsoonal moisture will continue to support the development of
daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with the threat of heavy
rainfall through mid to late week. Recent rainfall combined with
the slow-moving nature of storms will likely lead to isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding, especially over burn scars,
slot canyons, and vulnerable terrain. A few severe storms are also
possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains
through Wednesday, with damaging winds and hail the main threats.

Meanwhile, persistent upper ridging remains in place across the
southern U.S., fostering well above normal temperatures the next
few days. Widespread afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper
90s, with localized readings exceeding 100 degrees across portions
of Texas, Oklahoma, and Lower Mississippi Valley. These high
temperatures when combined with high humidity will produce
dangerous heat indices approaching or exceeding 105 to 115
degrees. This will lead to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
levels. With warm overnight lows providing little relief from the
heat, heat related illness may increase for those without adequate
cooling or hydration. By the end of the week, dangerous heat will
then expand into the Southwest and Intermountain West, with
numerous daily and monthly high temperature records possible.


Miller/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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