707 FXUS01 KWBC 291910 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 30 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 01 2026 ...Significant flash flooding possible in New England through tonight... ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the Plains into the Midwest through Friday... ...Dangerous heat continues for the South and expands into the Southwest, Intermountain West, and northern High Plains late this week into this weekend... A deepening low pressure system will slowly track along the New England coast through Thursday, resulting in continued precipitation chances across the Northeast. Anomalous moisture and increased convergence across the region will support very heavy rainfall through tonight, which may lead to significant flash flooding for portions of New England. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of southeastern New York, northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont where the heaviest rainfall totals are expected. Rainfall will begin to taper off across the Northeast on Thursday as the system pulls away from the region, but lingering showers may result in isolated flash flooding concerns. The trailing cold front associated with the Northeast low pressure system will extend back into the Southeast and southern Plains where it will remain quasi-stationary through Thursday. This frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms across these regions, and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain across the Southeast. Late Thursday into Friday, this boundary will lift towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley as a low pressure system strengthens in the lee of the Rockies and pushes east. This will result in increasing precipitation chances across the Mississippi Valley and Midwest late this week into the weekend, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across the northern/central Plains on Thursday and scattered instances of flash flooding possible for the northern/central Plains and Midwest on Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances will also be present across the Southwest where an active monsoonal pattern will continue to bring afternoon and evening thunderstorms for the Four Corners, Rockies, and High Plains. Slow storm motion and elevated rainfall rates will support localized flash flooding, especially over burn scars, slot canyons, and vulnerable terrain. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall for portions of these regions through Saturday. A smaller Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in place over portions of Colorado through tonight where convection may be enhanced in the vicinity of a low pressure center. Across the northern tier, a frontal boundary will sink south across the Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. An upper level disturbance will track along the boundary this evening, which will support scattered severe thunderstorms across the northern High Plains. On Thursday, the frontal boundary will become stationary across the Northwest but continue to move east across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The western side of the boundary is expected to lift north ahead of a Pacific frontal system that will onshore late Friday night into Saturday morning. Dangerous heat will continue across the southern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place, bringing above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Afternoon highs are expected to reach mid-to-upper 90s across the region, with highs into the low 100s for portions of the southern Plains. Heat indices will reach 105 to 115 degrees, resulting in widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk levels that will be hazardous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. The heat will expand into the Southwest and portions of the Intermountain West Thursday into Friday, and into the northern High Plains by Saturday. Widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk values are expected across these regions this weekend. Dolan/Oudit Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$