083 
FXUS01 KWBC 010733
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

...Wet weather and a light wintry mix to spread from the central
Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley today through the Ohio Valley
and mid-Atlantic early this week...

...Storm system will bring expanding chances for lower elevation
showers and thunderstorms and higher elevation snow from the
Paciifc Northwest to the central Rockies...

...Record warmth across the Southwest to southern Plains continues
while Arctic air filters southward across the northern tier behind
a strong cold front...


A strong cold front pushing across the Northeast early this
morning stretching westward across the Ohio Valley and into the
southern Plains will remain important to the short range forecast
as the clash of two separate air-masses leads to unsettled
weather. Light snow is expected to push across the Northeast this
morning along this frontal boundary before precipitation refocuses
north of this boundary over the central U.S. this afternoon. A mix
of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow is expected to expand
across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley tonight. This
wintry mix is then forecast to quickly move eastward across the
Ohio Valley overnight into Monday and linger across the central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning, where subfreezing
temperatures remain locked in place due to pronounced cold-air
damming along and just east of the elevated terrain. The primary
weather hazards associated with this precipitation are forecast to
be associated with light snow and freezing rain, which could lead
to periods of slippery travel.

Meanwhile, a separate storm system tracking across the
Intermountain West is forecast to bring low-elevation showers and
mountain snow to parts of northern California, Oregon, and the
Great Basin through Monday before focusing light-to-moderate
precipitation across the central Rockies on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms are also for these areas as well. In the Pacific
Northwest, tranquil conditions largely prevail until unsettled
weather returns by late Tuesday with additional mountain snow and
low-elevation rainfall.

Record-breaking warmth kicks off the month of March and
meteorological spring across the Southwest today as well above
average high temperatures soar into the mid-90s, with highs into
the 80s reaching into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. While the summer-like warmth wanes across the Southwest
early this week, above average temperatures are expected to become
more widespread across the Great Plains and Ohio/Mississippi
Valley by Tuesday. Additionally, numerous daily record highs are
forecast across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday as high temperatures rise into the mid-to-upper 80s.
Conversely, below average temperatures and arctic cold are
forecast to be located north of the aforementioned cold front
through Monday across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and Northeast. Here, high temperatures are forecast to
struggle to rise out of the teens during the daytime hours, with
low temperatures dipping below zero for some locations.
Fortunately, this arctic blast is expected to be short-lived as
temperatures return to near-average values by Wednesday.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$