135 
FXUS01 KWBC 150609
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 15 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 17 2026

...Flash Flooding threat across portions of Texas into the
Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

...Severe Thunderstorm threat across portions of the
Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Southern Plains
for Thursday...

...Severe Thunderstorm threat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
for Friday...

Unsettled weather pattern will persist across the central and
eastern U.S. as a frontal boundary stretches across the
Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley and the Plains and associated
shortwave disturbances influences the region. As the surface low
over the southern High Plains progresses northeastward toward the
Great Lakes, moisture will continue to stream northward from the
Gulf, which will support showers and thunderstorms along the
boundary. Strong low-level moisture transport ahead of the
advancing cold front will support repeated round of showers and
thunderstorms, with locally high rainfall rates. The combination
of deep moisture, frontal convergence, and upper-level forcing
will favor excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially over
areas receiving multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Furthermore,
WPC highlights a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall across
portions of west Texas for Thursday, while a Slight Risk
encompasses a wider area within Texas and a Marginal Risk covers
portions of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, a few isolated severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado or two
may be possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes and Texas.

As the cold front and shortwaves advances northeastward, showers
and thunderstorms will progress into the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic by late Thursday into Friday. Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Severe Thunderstorm risk for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic for Friday as instability and shear increases during
the afternoon and evening hours. As the primary surface low moves
into southeastern Canada by late Friday, the trailing cold front
will head towards the Atlantic Coast and the southern states.
Therefore, lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible across portions of Florida and
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper-level shortwave will
maintain periods of showers over portions of the Pacific Northwest
as the cold front pushes inland by late Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will begin to undergo a notable transition over the
next few days. On Thursday, cool, below normal temperatures will
spread southeastward into much of central U.S., while 10-15
degrees above normal highs continue across eastern U.S. On Friday,
15-20 degrees below normal temperatures spread across the central
U.S. into portions of eastern U.S. with highs mostly in the 50s
and 60s.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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