446 FXUS01 KWBC 030800 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 05 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic/New England, Carolina Coast, the Eastern Gulf Coast of Florida, and the Southwest on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday... A front extending from the Northeast, along the Appalachians and then across the Central Gulf Coast into Texas will move eastward off the Northeast Coast across the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians and westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast, and along the Eastern Gulf Coast. There will be three areas of a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the eastern part of the country on Monday. One area of a Slight Risk (level 2/4) over Northern New England /Northern Mid-Atlantic, the second over the Carolina Coast, and a third over the Gulf Coast of Florida. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the northern part of the boundary will move off the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast. At the same time, the rest of the front will be quasi-stationary from the Southern Mid-Atlantic, Southern Appalachians, and westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. There will be showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. The threat of excessive rainfall will diminish to a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Central/Southern Appalachians on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. A second front over the Northern Plains into the Great Basin on Monday will move slowly eastward to the Upper Great Lakes, the Central/Southern Plains, and then into the Southern Rockies by Wednesday morning. The boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains on Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, on Wednesday, the WPC increases the excessive rainfall threat to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) from Southwestern Lake Michigan into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms from Southwestern Lake Michigan into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will extend over the eastern and central part of the country on Tuesday into Wednesday. Moreover, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest through Wednesday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Southwest on Monday and Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area on Wednesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$