975 
FXUS01 KWBC 221917
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the
south-central U.S. into the Southwest...

...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
possible across parts of the Great Lakes, Mid-South, and West
through tonight...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains through Monday...

Scorching August temperatures are set to continue throughout much
of the South-Central U.S. and Southwest this weekend into early
next week and beyond as an anomalous upper ridge sets up over the
region and prompts temperatures to remain well above average
compared to typical heat this time of year. Temperatures are
forecast to be dangerously hot and rise into the triple digits
once again on Sunday and Monday throughout much of Texas,
Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and into the Desert Southwest. Upper
90s are forecast to extend into the Gulf Coast regions and parts
of the central High Plains. When combined with warm overnight low
temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s, the HeatRisk is considered
Extreme for much of the aforementioned regions. These temperatures
are also expected to break dozens of daily high temperature and
warm overnight temperature records, further highlighting how this
heat wave is not just typical August heat. Extreme Heat Warnings
and Heat Advisories have been issued. Residents and visitors are
reminded to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activity during the
hottest hours of the afternoon.

Thunderstorms and unsettled weather is forecast to continue
through tonight along a frontal boundary that stretches from the
Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern
Plains. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are possible this
evening and overnight across much of the Intermountain West,
Rockies, and Southwest. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible, as well as damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and
hail. By Sunday and Monday, unsettled weather remains across the
Lower Great Lakes associated with a deepening low pressure system
across southeast Canada. Meanwhile, continued monsoonal
thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest,
Intermountain West, and Rockies on an isolated-to-scattered basis.
Other clusters of thunderstorms are possible within northwesterly
flow across the Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Primary hazards with these storms will be locally heavy rain,
frequent lighting, and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat
for damaging wind gusts on Sunday is forecast to be located in
parts of the central Great Basin and central/eastern Montana,
where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
3/5) of severe weather.

Elsewhere, high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and drier
conditions for much of the Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio
Valley through early next week.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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