089 FXUS01 KWBC 190819 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 ...Very active weather pattern across much of the Lower 48 over the next few days... ...A dynamic winter storm will spread snow, ice and sleet impacts from Northern/Central Plains today to Great Lakes and Northeast beginning tonight; severe storm potential in Midwest today followed by Southeast on Friday... ...Active West coast pattern continues with additional heavy low elevation rain across California and additional heavy snow through the Sierra... ...Much above average temperature likely for much of the eastern half of the country, while below average temperatures slowly spread from West into Northern/Central Great Plains... ...An elevated to critical fire weather threat will continue across the Southern Plains... A deep and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone will organize over the Great Plains today, spreading multiple hazards from there to the East Coast over the coming days. This system will put down several inches of snow over portions of Nebraska and Iowa today followed by light snow and freezing rain for the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys this afternoon into evening, with the threat of a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts possible, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Rain showers will also spread into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon into evening. There's also a critical risk of fire weather, due to warm, dry and windy conditions over portions of northeastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, central Oklahoma and southwest Missouri today. The sprawling surface low pressure system strengthens as it moves into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday. Light to moderate snow, sleet and freezing rain are expected, while spreading over the interior Northeast and southern New England. Impacts from this winter weather are most likely to be minor. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central Gulf Coast states, where some risk for severe hail and localized gusty winds are possible, according to SPC. Another low pressure system moving into the Southern High Plains will bring dry, windy, westerly flow into the region on Friday. Another critical fire weather area is in place over there as a result. In the West, another round of heavy snow in the Sierra is likely today, as well as coastal/low elevation rain and isolated thunderstorms for southern California. Snowfall totals of over 2 feet with isolated amounts of over 3 feet are possible by Friday morning. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts in southern California today. Temperatures will be above average from the Southern Plains to the Northeast through Friday, with well above normal conditions expected for the Midwest, where high temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be 20-30 degrees above average. Widespread maximum and minimum temperature records are likely to be tied or broken across the Southeast today and Friday. Troughing in the West should keep temperatures below average over the next couple of days, but these cool conditions should expand eastward into the weekend, bringing an end to the mild weather in the East. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$