795 FXUS01 KWBC 031958 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Valid 00Z Fri Sep 04 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 06 2026 ...A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for parts of eastern Texas through this evening with the remnants of Edouard... ...Thunderstorms with potential severe weather and flash flooding likely along a front from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic... ...Monsoonal moisture could cause scattered flash flooding in parts of Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days... Surface troughing and upper-level energy left over from Edouard is currently focusing moisture for continued heavy rain in parts of eastern Texas. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) remains in place for flash flooding potential with this system. Areas that have already seen copious rain amounts from the system will be at particular risk. Convection is forecast to weaken into this evening, with a possible minor uptick late night--but overall weaker than in previous days, as the support for heavy rain continues to dissipate. Farther east, ample moisture stretched across the Gulf Coast region to Florida, along with some surface low pressure, will allow for scattered thunderstorms causing instances of flash flooding through Friday and Saturday. Farther north, an active frontal boundary will continue to spark thunderstorms along it for the next couple days as it meanders in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic and then slowly sinks southward. Thunderstorm complexes in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through tonight have a threat of tornadoes, high winds, and hail. In the Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic, strong winds are the primary threat through tonight, and there is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) shown by the Storm Prediction Center for this potential across northeast Ohio/western Pennsylvania embedded within larger Slight Risks encompassing these regions. On Friday, the primary thunderstorm threat (mostly for high winds, with some hail possible) is across the central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic region. Some isolated flash flooding is possible where storms produce higher rain rates and in sensitive places like urban areas. By Saturday, the front sinking south will lead to potentially severe thunderstorms centered over North Carolina and vicinity. Monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across the Southwest over the next several days, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. WPC continues to indicate Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Arizona and New Mexico through this evening and again on Friday for these storms. Urban areas and also dry washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Farther north, a reasonably strong upper-level low for this time of year will continue to push a front through the Northwest, leading to widespread showers and some thunderstorms, with a nonzero chance of flooding through tonight. Showers are forecast to continue across the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies for late week, but with lower overall rain totals. Temperatures continue to be well above average for September across most areas east of the Rockies for the next few days as an upper-level ridge sets up. Heat Advisories are widespread from the south-central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic, with Extreme Heat Warnings centered in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, for temperatures and heat indices well into the 90s and 100s. Warm low temperatures will cause added heat stress to vulnerable people and infrastructure, while also setting widespread records for warm minimums. Major to Extreme HeatRisk is widespread. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat. The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic should gradually see some heat relief as a cold front progresses south late week into the weekend, but the central U.S. will remain hot. Meanwhile, temperatures will be below average across the West given the upper low overhead. Tate Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png $$