295 FXUS01 KWBC 082012 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 411 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 09 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 11 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Wednesday and the Ohio Valley on Thursday.... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Thursday... A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains and then westward to the Great Basin will move eastward to the Northeast, then into the Ohio Valley and then into the Southern Plains by Thursday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the Central/Southern Rockies, then move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and into the Central Southern Plains by Thursday. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Similarly, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. In addition, on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of the boundary from parts of the Northeast to the Central/Southern Plains. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Southeast Coast to parts of the Middle and Western Gulf Coast through Thursday evening. Elsewhere, on Thursday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png $$