689 
FXUS01 KWBC 260658
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 12Z Tue May 26 2026 - 12Z Thu May 28 2026

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue across much of the
Southern U.S. through midweek, raising flash flooding and severe
weather concerns...

...Remaining unsettled across the West as a large Pacific low
brings increasing rain and thunderstorm chances along with some
high elevation snow...

...Unseasonably hot weather continues across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest the next few days as temperatures soar 20-30
degrees above normal...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten
much of the Southern U.S. the next few days as a series of upper
level disturbances and a nearly stationary boundary act upon a
very warm, humid, and unstable air mass. Today's focus for heavy
rainfall will be across a large portion of Texas and from the
central Gulf Coast to the southern Mid-Atlantic. In these areas,
the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall, highlighting the potential for
slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms with high rainfall rates to
produce scattered instances of flash flooding. Urban centers,
low-lying, and poor drainage areas would be the most at risk of
flooding concerns. The heavy rain and flash flooding threat then
shifts into portions of the Ohio Valley along with eastern Texas
and Louisiana on Wednesday, with additional Slight Risks of
excessive rainfall being advertised. Severe weather will be
possible as well, particularly across parts of western and
southwestern Texas later this afternoon and evening. The main
hazards from any strong to severe thunderstorms would include
large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Meanwhile, a Pacific low diving southward into northern California
and western Nevada will lead to increasingly active and unsettled
weather across the West as it slows down, becomes nearly
stationary, and then sits and spins over the Great Basin through
mid to late week. Underneath and ahead of this low, increasing
moisture will spark numerous rain showers and thunderstorms each
day, especially across the higher valleys and mountainous terrain
of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and the Intermountain West.
Some snow is also likely across the highest elevations of the
Cascades and the Sierra as well given a pocket of colder air
aloft. Snow accumulations will generally be minor, though totals
of 6 to 12 inches are possible in the Sierra above pass level.
Cooler air along with the clouds and precipitation associated with
this system will also help to knock temperatures down as much as
10 to 20 degrees below normal for portions of California, Nevada,
Utah, and Arizona through Thursday. 

While parts of the West cool off, unseasonably hot weather will
persist across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through mid
to late week. High temperatures are expected to soar well into the
80s and 90s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with a few places
across eastern Montana possibly nearing 100 degrees. This early
season summerlike heat could become hazardous, especially for
those who are sensitive to heat or have not acclimated to hotter
temperatures yet this year. The Weather Prediction Center
continues to highlight widespread moderate to major levels of
HeatRisk for a large portion of the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. A frontal system dropping southward out of Canada may
spark a few showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening, but this is unlikely to bring much in the way of relief
from the heat heading into the middle part of the week.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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