117 
FXUS01 KWBC 051959
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 00Z Wed Jul 08 2026

...Heavy rain and flash flooding threat continues across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

...Dangerous heat persists across the Southeast despite a
shrinking eastern U.S. heat footprint...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected across parts of the
Plains through Monday...

...Heat begins building across the West early this week...

The footprint of the oppressive heat that affected portions of the
central and eastern U.S. last week will continue to contract
through early this week as seasonable to below-normal temperatures
spread across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio
Valley. The cooler air will be accompanied by a slow-moving
frontal boundary and areas of low pressure, supporting multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with an increasing threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In contrast, above-normal heat will
persist across the Southeast, with afternoon highs well into the
90s from the Carolinas to northern Florida. Combined with high
humidity and warm overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees,
these conditions will continue to pose an elevated risk of
heat-related illness, particularly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.

The greatest potential for heavy rainfall will extend from the
upper Ohio Valley eastward into southern New England. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop later today through this
evening across the Mid-Atlantic. While the environment is expected
to be less favorable than yesterday's setup that produced
widespread damaging winds across parts of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic, some storms may still produce locally damaging wind
gusts. In addition to the ongoing Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of
Excessive Rainfall across portions of eastern Pennsylvania,
northern New Jersey, and southern New York through tonight, WPC
has introduced a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Monday
from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into Long Island and
southern Connecticut, where numerous flash floods are likely, with
significant events possible. This elevated risk will be attributed
in part to a surface low slowly tracking eastward from near the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast that will focus an axis of heavy
rainfall, increasing the potential for flash flooding, especially
where multiple rounds of storms occur and in urban areas.

From the southern Plains to the Southeast, hot and humid
conditions will fuel thunderstorms through this evening. Some of
these storms may become strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds, especially from the Texas Panhandle eastward into
north-central Texas. Drier and more settled conditions are
forecast over the southern High Plains on Monday; however, storms
capable of producing damaging winds may develop farther east,
particularly across the lower Mississippi Valley.

Across the northern Plains, a cold front will serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development later today, with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado possible, especially across
northern North Dakota. The front will continue east into the
eastern Dakotas and Minnesota on Monday, where some storms may
also produce large hail and damaging winds.

Heat will begin to build across the West this week, with
temperatures climbing several degrees above normal across portions
of southern California and the Desert Southwest by Tuesday.

Pereira


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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