649 
FXUS01 KWBC 010458
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 01 2026 - 12Z Fri Jul 03 2026

...Dangerous heat to build across the central and eastern U.S.;
below normal temperatures for the West...

...Isolated to scattered severe weather and heavy rain continue
across the Central U.S. and Northeast through Friday...

...Critical fire weather conditions expected over the Four Corners
through tomorrow...


A highly amplified upper-level ridge over central and eastern U.S.
will bring a dangerous heatwave through the weekend. Highs will
reach the mid to upper 90s, with numerous locations exceeding 100
degrees. Many areas across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast will see record breaking highs through Thursday.
Combined with dewpoints remaining well into the 70s, peak heat
indices are expected to reach 100 to 115 degrees across portions
of lower Mississippi Valley into the Northeast. The combination of
daytime heat and little overnight relief (as lows are expected to
drop to the 70s-80s), will lead to widespread areas of Major to
Extreme HeatRisk from the Midwest to the East Coast. This will
pose a risk for heat-related illnesses, especially for vulnerable
populations and those without adequate cooling. Across the West, a
longwave trough will maintain temperatures generally 5 to 15
degrees below average.

Otherwise, a upper-level trough remains anchored across the
western CONUS, maintaining a cyclonic flow and periodically
ejecting shortwave energy northeastward into the Northern Plains.
Additionally, a frontal boundary draping across Upper Midwest into
the Great Lakes and surface troughs will remain the focus for
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary
through Wednesday. The combination of mid to upper level forcing
and moist southwesterly flow will support excessive rainfall and
severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region. A surface trough will extend across the Northeast into
parts of the Mid-Atlantic, expanding the risk for excessive
rainfall and severe thunderstorms across parts of the Northeast as
clusters of thunderstorms may develop during the evening/overnight
hours on Wednesday. Another frontal boundary will drop from
southern Canada on Thursday, reinforcing showers and thunderstorms
across the northern tier. Strong instability and sufficient
moisture may support multiple rounds of organized convection,
which can produce widespread damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
excessive rainfall across the Northern Plains into parts of the
Great Lakes and Northeast.

Further south, daily rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
will continue across the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Florida, as a
deep tropical moisture and unstable airmass remains in place.
Slow-moving storms will be capable of producing high rainfall
rates, which can bring isolated flash flooding. Over the portions
of the southern/central Plains, repeated convection may develop
along the surface trough where southerly flow will maintain
moisture convergence, bringing a risk for isolated flash flooding
and excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Over the Four Corners, fire
conditions continue as strong south/southwesterly winds and dry
airmass brings Critical fire weather concerns on Wednesday.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$