545 FXUS01 KWBC 221659 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1259 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026 Valid 00Z Sat May 23 2026 - 00Z Mon May 25 2026 ...Scattered flash flooding potential from the Ohio Valley to the western Gulf Coast States the next couple of days... ...Severe thunderstorms continue across the southern High Plains... ...A wet and unsettled Memorial Day weekend is in store for much of the East, while the West remains warm and dry... A slow-moving, wavy frontal system will be the primary focus for active weather across the central-eastern half of the country the next few days. The system will bring multiple round of showers and thunderstorms across the frontal boundary, especially across the southern Plains and Deep South into the Ohio Valley. The system will also bring some cooler temperatures through Memorial Day weekend, with highs reaching only 50s and 60s across parts of Northeast into Mid-Atlantic. On the warm side of the front, some of the shower and thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce severe weather and flash flooding, with daily threats heading into the weekend. As the frontal boundary moves across the central and southern Plains, southeasterly winds will bring in warm moisture along the boundary, supporting severe thunderstorms this evening. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of west Texas and Oklahoma, with additional threats of hail and severe wind gusts. Thunderstorms may also grow to become strong across portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley, along the central Gulf Coast states, and in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where Marginal Risks are in place for isolated severe hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado. In addition, with the chance for several storm clusters bringing heavy rainfall across parts of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Central Gulf Coast, and Alabama, Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with a chance for flash flooding for the remainder of Friday. The storm activity continues into the weekend as the front continues to progress eastward, with severe weather threats moving into parts of the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains on Saturday. While storm intensity should be less than on Friday, isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out as the environment will remain unstable and adequately moist. Multiple clusters of storms containing heavy rainfall rates repeatedly tracking over the same areas that already have saturated grounds will quickly lead to a flash flooding threat Saturday afternoon. As a result, a higher end Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in effect. Elsewhere, heavier showers and storms may also lead to flooding concerns in parts of the Southeast, though any issues are expected to be localized. Meanwhile, with wet and stormy weather keeping the eastern U.S. unsettled the next few days, the same cannot be said for the western U.S. Other than a few high elevation showers across some mountain ranges in the Rockies and Sierra, the majority of the West will stay dry with above average temperatures through the holiday weekend. Highs will climb into the 80s and 90s within inland areas across the west, with 100s confined to the lower deserts of California, Nevada, and Arizona. On Monday, 15-25 degrees above normal temperatures will develop over the Northern Plains with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Oudit/Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$