570 
FXUS01 KWBC 040744
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Wed May 06 2026

...A cold front will move in from the Northern Plains beginning
today and will continue southward, reaching the Southeast by
mid-week...

...Snow and wintry precipitation are expected to begin in much of
the Rockies early this week...

...Wintry precipitation will make a return to parts of the Sierra
Nevada, with rain and thunderstorms expected in lower elevations...

A strong cold front has entered the Northern Plains from Canada
and will continue its southeastward trek through the Plains,
reaching the Southern Plains and Southeast by the middle of the
week. A potent upper-level trough will continue to eject southward
and deepen as it combines with a lingering cutoff low located off
the coast of southern California. This will allow for the system
to become expansive, extending from the Midwest and Northeast to
the Southern Plains and into parts of the Central Rockies by
midweek. As a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected throughout much of the country. Beginning this morning,
showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout portions of the
Central Rockies and Great Basin, with higher elevations receiving
mountain snow, while the Northern Plains receives lighter
precipitation in the form of rain and a wintry mix. As the front
continues southward through the evening, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to begin in parts of the Central Plains and Midwest.
Meanwhile, on Monday night, a well-defined dryline will set up in
the Southern Plains while the front continues its progression.

On Tuesday, the front is expected to arrive in the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon. Given modest
cooling aloft and instability, storms that develop will pose a
risk of large hail, strong winds, and the possibility of
tornadoes. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Simultaneously,
given the large extent of the front, showers and thunderstorms
will also develop across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. The northernmost impacted regions are
expected to experience much less intense thunderstorms due to
lower instability.

The story continues for the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday, as the cold front slows but continues its journey
toward the Gulf. Rich Gulf moisture will continue to flow
northward, aiding in further destabilization. This will initiate
heavy to severe thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the
Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee
Valley. The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk of severe weather
for these regions as a result. Storms may also result in heavy
rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. Much of the
Mid-Atlantic should also expect showers and thunderstorms, though
they will be less intense than those further south.

Meanwhile, the previously mentioned upper-level cutoff low off the
coast of California, along with several surface troughs and a
weakening surface low, will bring precipitation to parts of
northern California and the Central Great Basin. Precipitation is
expected to remain in the form of rain and thunderstorms along the
coast and low elevations, with snow and a wintry mix in the high
elevations, specifically the Sierra Nevada. Elsewhere, portions of
southern Florida will continue to receive thunderstorms early this
week as a stubborn stationary front remains in place. Additional
localized precipitation will also be possible due to sea-breeze
thunderstorms.

In terms of temperatures, significantly cooler conditions are
expected early this week throughout the northern and eastern
portions of the U.S. as the cold front progresses.
Well-below-average temperatures are also expected for parts of the
Central Rockies beginning on Tuesday, with temperatures dipping
into the 40s. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will continue to
experience well-above-average temperatures over the next few days.
Parts of Washington and Oregon could see highs approaching or
exceeding 80 degrees for the beginning of the week.


Blanco-Alcala


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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