088 FXUS01 KWBC 051939 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 06 2026 - 00Z Mon Jun 08 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains, and Southern Plains on Saturday and Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe weather across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast Saturday, as well as across the Northern/ High Plains on Saturday and Sunday... ...Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Southwest into the Inter-Mountain West for the weekend... Upper-level energy and moisture flowing northward off the Gulf of America will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, Central Plains, and the Lower Mississippi Valley from this afternoon through at least this weekend. This evening, flash flooding is possible across eastern Nebraska into Iowa as storms re-fire ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary. Storms may train over areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday, raising the risks of excessive runoff. Going into tomorrow, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is centered around the Red River Valley as mid-level disturbances round a western trough, present afternoon instability, and rich boundary layer precipitable water will enable locally heavy thunderstorms. Farther south, the central Gulf Coast will also be under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as moisture streaming in from the Gulf fuels abundant tropical rain showers and thunderstorms. Some ponding could result over low lying and urban areas. On Sunday, the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall shifts eastward from the Red River Valley to encompass more of the Middle Mississippi Valley, including the hilly Ozarks. Similar ingredients over the Red River on Saturday will be present across the region. An inch to two inch hourly rain rates may facilitate the risks of flash flooding. Severe weather will also be a concern across the High Plains the Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Saturday. A cold front will spark thunderstorms across Ohio earlier in the day that progress towards Pennsylvania into interior New England by the afternoon and then the cities along the 95 corridor by the evening. Adequate instability and shear will support mixed storm modes of storm clusters and supercells that will bring the threats of frequent lightning, strong winds, and large hail. A Slight Risk of severe weather is also highlighted from eastern Montana into the Dakotas where steep lapse rates ahead of a strong upper trough and surface cold front will promote large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting potential for winds over 80 mph possible across the region. A similar severe threat will be possible across Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas on Sunday with the surface front pushing through the region. Critical fire weather conditions are in the weekend forecast for a broad swath of the Southwest into the Inter-Mountain West. A strong trough and surface front in the area will promote winds gusting to 20-30 mph and relative humidities in the 10-20 % range. High temperatures will begin to moderate in the West as a cold front approaches the region, but the combination of dry air and strong winds will prevail for favorable fire weather. Summer temperatures will certainly be felt across the northern Plains and the East Coast. Expect afternoon maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s from Colorado to Minnesota. High temperatures will run anywhere from 10-20 degrees above average for early June. Expect widespread Moderate and scattered Major HeatRisk across the northern Plains. Those sensitive to heat will need to precautions for heat related illness. Ahead of the storms tomorrow, the Northeast will see temperatures reach the middle 90s, which will also bring Moderate to isolated Major HeatRisk. On Sunday, temperatures in southern Virginia and North Carolina will reach the middle 90s with some upper 90s possible. Major HeatRisk is shaded for the region. Stay hydrated and avoid activity in the middle of the day. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$