999 
FXUS01 KWBC 312000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 01 2026 - 00Z Mon Aug 03 2026

...Unsettled weather sweeps across the Central and Eastern U.S;
daily chances of heavy rainfall and severe weather...

...Dangerous heat builds across the Southwest on Friday,
Intermountain West/northern High Plains...

Unsettled weather will sweep across the Central U.S. as a dynamic
low pressure system migrates towards the Ohio Valley over the next
24 hours. A cold front extending from the low center will drive
thunderstorms capable of isolated to scattered severe weather and
heavy rainfall today and tomorrow across the Upper Midwest,
Mississippi Valley, and even Southern High Plains as it presses
southward into an abnormally moist and unstable pre-frontal
airmass (even by July standards). By Sunday, the eastward
progression of the front should confine most thunderstorm activity
to the eastern quarter of the CONUS, with a similar threat of
severe weather and heavy rainfall. Over the Southwest,
thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually diminish this
weekend as dry northeasterly flow on the periphery of a strong
upper-high erodes monsoonal moisture over the Four Corners. Even
so, the potential for isolated flash flooding and severe weather
will remain within the strongest cells.

The aforementioned upper-high will continue to bring dangerous
heat across the Southwest today, before rising heights overspread
into the northern High Plains/Intermountain West tomorrow.
Afternoon highs are expected to reach 110-120 degrees for parts of
the Southwest, while the areas farther north will reach the 90s
and 100s. Unfortunately, overnight lows will provide little relief
as temperatures are expected to remain warm. Thus, much of Western
U.S. will experience widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
conditions, which will bring concern for heat-related illness,
especially for those without adequate cooling or hydration. Much
needed relief will arrive on Sunday for the Northern Rockies and
portions of the Intermountain West with the passage of a strong
cold front. However, this cold front will also usher in Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Columbia
Basin tomorrow as very dry and windy conditions overtake the area.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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