856 FXUS01 KWBC 280833 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 ...Record warmth across the Southwest, while Arctic air begins to filter southward behind a strong cold front passage... ...Light snow will fall across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the day... ...The West Coast, Southern Plains, and the Sunshine State will see rain and thunderstorm chances for this weekend... The weather pattern across the U.S. will support a large contrast in temperatures as a warm ridge of high pressure will keep well above normal temperatures in the Southwest, while an outbreak of Arctic air will surge across the northern tier states. Temperatures in the desert Southwest will near and may break some daily record highs as the mercury rises into the middle to upper 90s for the weekend. The California valleys may also reach the upper 80s and perhaps the low 90s. The warm temperatures will also extend eastward from the Four Corners region into the Southern Plains. Plenty of high temperatures in the 70s and 80s (60s in high terrain) are in the short term forecast. Morning low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s across most of the southwestern and central U.S., which is well above average for late Winter. Meanwhile, an outbreak of arctic air currently reaching into the northern Plains will surge southeastward to the Midwest and East Coast. By Sunday, expect high temperatures in the low 40s, 30s, and even some upper 20s. Morning lows will plummet into the 20s and teens. The cold air will then settle across the East Coast by Monday as a strong Arctic high pressure takes hold. Bands of light snow are falling across Montana to the Dakotas this early morning. This is all north of a frontal boundary draped across from the Rockies southward into the Plains. The forecast calls for light to moderate snow accumulations of 2-5 inches for today, though Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the Plains and Midwest as the snow could produce some slippery travel conditions. Sunday into Monday, the sharp temperature gradient along a frontal boundary draped in the southern Ohio Valley will set the potential for over-running precipitation and thus some mixed precipitation and/or ice. There are 30-40 % probabilities from the Winter Storm Severity Index for some minor winter weather impacts. As the moisture moves east towards the Appalachians on Monday, there may also be a risk for some mixed precipitation and ice as cold air damming sets in. Across Florida, chances for showers and storms will be possible for today. Ample surface moisture, daytime heating, and some higher winds aloft will bring the risk for locally strong thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for the hazards of gusty winds and hail. Additionally, as the frontal boundary dies over the region, more general thunderstorms are forecast for the day Sunday. This should be beneficial for South Florida, as much of the state is battling fires in drought conditions. General thunderstorms are also forecast to be centered around Oklahoma for the weekend ahead of a stalling frontal boundary in the Plains. For the West Coast, an upper-level trough moving onshore will produce scattered rain showers from northern California to the Great Basin during the weekend. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. Wilder/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$