414 FXUS01 KWBC 191848 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 247 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 20 2026 - 00Z Wed Jul 22 2026 ...High concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke to affect the Great Lakes area over the next few days... ...A strong southeastward moving frontal system to support active thunderstorms from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic... ...Hazardous heat builds from the Northern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Newly formed T.D. Two to bring heavy rain threats to the northeast Gulf coast... ...Monsoonal thunderstorms to continue over the next few days from the Southwest into the Great Basin... There is no let up in air quality issues over the next few days downwind of the ongoing Canadian wildfires across western portions of Ontario. The latest smoke models are focusing the highest concentrations of smoke across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, followed by another shot of smoke moving south on Tuesday across this area in the wake of a strong cold front pushing east. Air quality alerts are currently in effect across the Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-West, with this likely to continue over the next few days. Air quality issues are also expected across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies due to wildfires across this area. Air quality alerts are currently in effect across eastern Oregon into northern Idaho. The above mentioned strong cold front moving out of the Northern Plains tonight, into the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Monday and the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Tuesday will be the focus for active thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms, locally heavy rains and isolated flash flooding are possible as these storms push east and southeastward over the next few days in the vicinity of this frontal boundary. While cooler air is expected behind of the above mentioned cold front, building mid to upper level heights across the Central Rockies, eastward into the Plains will continue to support much above average temperatures early this week across much of the Plains, southeastward into the Lower Missouri Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley. A large region of major heat risks and heat advisories stretch through the Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Missouri Valley into the Central to Northern Plains. Latest satellite imagery show a broad circulation associated with newly formed T.D. Two over the northeast Gulf. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows a slow movement of T.D. Two to the northwest over the next few days with potential for gradual strengthening. The bulk of the heavy precipitation with this storm will remain offshore. However, the outer rainfall bands with this system will bring heavy precipitation threats along coastal sections from west to northwest FL, westward along the FL Panhandle, far southern AL, far southern MS into southern LA. See the latest NHC advisories for additional and updated information on this storm. An axis of much above average moisture values expected to persist on the west and southwest side of the building mid to upper level ridge over the Central Rockies/Central to Southern Plains. This will support an active monsoonal precip pattern over the next few days from the Southwest into the Great Basin. Locally heavy rains and isolated flash flooding is possible from far Southwest Texas, southern New Mexico, large portions of Arizona into Utah, Nevada and southwest Colorado. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$