969 FXUS01 KWBC 290725 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 323 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin on Saturday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest through Monday... A quasi-stationary front from the North Carolina Coast roughly southwestward to the Southern Plains will slowly dissipate from west to east to the North Carolina Coast by Sunday morning. Near and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through Sunday evening. From Sunday night to Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will help produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday into Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains, with a strong diurnal component from late afternoon into late evening Saturday and Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will also produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southwest through Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable. Moreover, a front extending from the Northern Plains southwestward to Northern California will remain quasi-stationary through early Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. In addition, on Sunday into Monday morning, a stationary front will expand eastward from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and extend into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday. Overnight Saturday, the showers and thunderstorms will expand over the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will grow into New England from Sunday evening into Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png $$