283 FXUS01 KWBC 250727 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 25 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 27 2026 ...Heavy rainfall and severe storms continue across portions of the Central U.S. the next few days... ...Intense heat begins to wane across most of the West on Thursday; builds across the Southern U.S. through Saturday... ...Extremely critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of the Great Basin tomorrow; fire weather conditions continue this weekend... Daily threats of scattered severe weather and flash flooding will persist across parts of the country through the end of the week as a summertime weather pattern remains in place. An abundance of Gulf moisture and an unstable air mass will interact with a few slower-moving disturbances and frontal boundaries, setting the stage for several organized clusters of thunderstorms the next few days. The strongest storms could quickly turn severe across the Central/Southern Plains this afternoon and evening, bringing the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Coverage of severe weather is expected to diminish after today, although isolated severe storms remain possible from the High Plains to the Ozarks through at least Saturday as a front lingers across the Heartland. On the heavy rainfall front, we are monitoring a corridor stretching from southern Kansas to south-central Missouri for impactful flash flooding later this afternoon and evening as heavy thunderstorms move repeatedly over this area along a stationary front. The focus for heaviest rainfall is then forecast to shift into the Midwest and Lower Ohio Valley tomorrow and Saturday, which could yield widely scattered flash flooding. As of this morning, a swath of Flood Watches extend from the Oklahoma Panhandle to central Illinois in advance of this upcoming bout of heavy rainfall. The West also remains active today, as afternoon thunderstorms capable of isolated downpours continue over the Great Basin along the periphery of an upper-level ridge. In contrast to the unseasonably cool and dry air mass encompassing the northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, hot weather continues across much of the West. This heat will begin to subside Friday as an unseasonably strong frontal system pushes inland from the eastern Pacific. High temperatures trending 10-25 degrees below normal late this weekend will make for a welcomed reprieve from the heat. While the West cools down, a downwind upper-level ridge will expand and intensify the hot weather across the Southern U.S. through the end of the week, with highs soaring well into the 90s to near 100. Meanwhile, potentially dangerous fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow over central Utah, northwest Arizona, and extreme southeastern Nevada given nearby thunderstorm activity and increasing dry and windy conditions from the approach of the Pacific system. Ongoing fires along with any new fires that develop will have the potential to spread quickly and can exhibit extreme fire behavior. Potentially critical fire weather will remain a concern over much of the same area this weekend as the dry and windy conditions persist, where an expansive area of Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect. Asherman/Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$