021 
FXUS01 KWBC 141958
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 15 2026 - 00Z Sat Oct 17 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday...

Low pressure over the Southern High Plains will move northeastward
to Southeastern Canada by Friday evening. Moisture from the Gulf
will pool along and ahead of the front over the Southern Plains,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms with heavy rain on
Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on
Wednesday through Thursday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in
or near recently burned areas.

Moreover, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
roughly northeastward to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow canyons/gullies
the most vulnerable.

The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.
Moisture will continue to stream into parts of the Southern
Plains, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain on
Thursday. As a result, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains from
Thursday through Friday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in
or near recently burned areas.

The threat of severe thunderstorms will decrease slightly on
Thursday to a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms
over the Southern Plains. Hazards associated with these
thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will
end over the Southern Plains. However, rain will continue over
western Texas on Friday morning with showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf Coast. As the low moves into the Northeast, rain
will develop over the Great Lakes and extend into the Northeast,
mainly ending over the Upper Great Lakes by Friday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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