906 
FXUS01 KWBC 200809
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 20 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 22 2026

...Norâ€easter brings significant impacts to portions of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast this week...

...Excessive rainfall impacts return to the Southwest/Four
Corners...


A mid-latitude cyclone stationed well off the Carolina Coast will
intensify as it slowly drifts north over the coming days.
Persistent and strong onshore winds will result in coastal
flooding, dangerous marine conditions and beach erosion,
especially at high tide cycles from southern New Jersey through
the North Carolina Coast. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are
likely along immediate coastal areas, especially across the Outer
Banks region of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, an amplifying upper trough in the East Pacific will tap
tropical moisture as it digs into the Western U.S. this week. This
anomalous moisture will surge northward into the Southwest and
Four Corners region starting Wednesday, when an approaching
surface low pressure system will act as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms across Central/Southern California, where a slight
risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall is in effect.
Moist, very anomalous, southerly flow into the Four Corners will
also pose additional excessive rainfall concerns. Another slight
risk area is in effect for southern Utah/Colorado into much of
Arizona/New Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday before the heavy rain
threat shifts eastward into the Plains heading into the weekend.

Temperatures will be below average in the West given the
developing upper trough pattern. Meanwhile, a building ridge in
the Central U.S. will promote above average to well above average
temperatures through this weekend. Temps in the East remain
average to slightly below average over the next few days thanks to
the lingering Nor'easter.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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