789 FXUS01 KWBC 041929 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 228 PM EST Wed Mar 04 2026 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 00Z Sat Mar 07 2026 ...A frontal system, and later a dryline, are forecast to bring showers and potentially severe thunderstorms between the southern Plains and Ohio Valley through the rest of the week... ...A strong cold front is set to continue moving through the western U.S. and Rockies by midweek, producing gusty winds, mountain snowfall, and widespread wintry mix... ...Above-average temperatures are forecast to become widespread across the southern half of the country this week... A preview of spring-like conditions will continue across much of the U.S. through the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms across the ArkLaTex and mid-Mississippi Valley will continue overnight and track northeastward into the Ohio Valley into Thursday. Storms that develop will become strong to potentially severe, producing areas of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms, issued by the Storm Prediction Center, is in place for the rest of the day today from North Texas to the lower Ohio Valley. The strongest storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. On Thursday, the severe threat is forecast to shift back westward into the western High Plains, from the Texas Panhandle to western Kansas, as convection intensifies along the dryline ahead of an ejecting storm system emerging from the Rockies. Then on Friday, the threat of severe weather is expected to intensify further, as a strong low-level jet from the Gulf brings in large swaths of moisture. The moisture is then expected to interact with the aforementioned dryline, which at this point will be even more well defined, extending from southwest Texas into west Oklahoma. An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather is in place for Friday. Further west, a Pacific storm system and associated cold front will continue its journey inland through the Intermountain West and into the Rockies. This system will usher in colder temperatures and lowering snow levels. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is likely through Friday in the regions of higher elevation, while the coastal and low elevation regions should expect to see a wintry mix. Gusty winds are also expected as a tightening pressure gradient develops. In addition, critical fire weather conditions will develop Thursday across much of New Mexico into far western Texas due to gusty winds and very low relative humidity with the associated dryline remaining in place. Meanwhile, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue for much of the country through the remainder of the work week. A broad area of well above normal warmth is expected from Texas into the Southeast, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-80s down south. The warmth will extend northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley, where highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s are possible. One notable source of uncertainty remains at this time, in the form of a strong backdoor cold front, which is currently expected to press southward from the Northeast. This boundary could create a strong temperature gradient from northern Virginia to New Jersey, with areas north and east of the front potentially much cooler. The broader Northeast is likely to remain on the chilly side, as low-to mid-level flow appears insufficient to fully dislodge the entrenched cool air mass. Blanco-Alcala/Hamrick/Pereira Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$