146 FXUS01 KWBC 020744 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026 ...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Eastern Texas on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday and the Southwest on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday... Tropical Depression EDOUARD over Eastern Texas is forecast to move northward into Northeastern Texas and weaken on Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday morning. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over parts of Eastern Texas on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Eastern Texas on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Monsoonal moisture will start to increase on Wednesday over parts of the Southwest, producing showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday, the showers and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage and intensity, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region into Friday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies on Wednesday and Thursday from the late afternoon into evening. Also on Wednesday, a front will move eastward into the Northeast and move out over the ocean by Friday. The system will produce heavy rain over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast/Florida to the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms will end by Friday morning. Next, a front extending from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes moves into the Northeast on Thursday and continues roughly westward into the Northern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary over the Northeast westward into the Northern Plains. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop in the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Friday morning. Hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. A front will also move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday morning. The system will produce rain over the Northwest on Wednesday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over the Northern Intermountain Region on Wednesday and continue through Friday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday into Friday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and along the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png $$