865 FXUS01 KWBC 170621 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 220 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 17 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026 ...Well below average temperatures spread across much of central, southern and eastern U.S. with widespread frost and freezing temperatures from the Plains to the East through the weekend... ...Nor'easter develops along the Carolina coast this weekend, bringing potential coastal flooding and beach erosion along portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week... ...Elevated to Critical fire weather across portions of California into Sunday... The strong surface low over southeastern Canada will continue to move northeastward, as the strong cold front moves offshore, allowing a colder and drier airmass to spread southeastward behind the boundary. Across the Great Lakes and higher elevations of the Northeast, lingering cyclonic flow and colder air aloft will support mixed precipiation through early Saturday morning. Furthermore, the slow-moving trailing cold front will continue to move southeastward across Florida through early Sunday, bringing showers and thunderstorms across the area. As the boundary interacts with unstable moist air, rainfall rates may increase, leading to excessive rainfall/localized flooding across portions of southeastern Florida coast through Sunday. Meanwhile, the development of a non-tropical coastal low near the Carolina coast will bring unsettled weather along portions of the Mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend into Monday. Strengthening onshore flow north of the low will bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and hazardous marine conditions to portions of the coastal Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The greatest coastal impacts and heavy rainfall will depend on the storms track, intensity, and proximity to the shoreline. Persistent onshore winds and elevated wave heights could contribute to coastal flooding, beach erosion, and hazardous surf. Across the West, the most notable concerns will remain concentrated over southern and interior California, where strong offshore flow associated with an enhanced surface pressure gradient will favor Santa Ana wind conditions. The combination of low humidity and locally strong wind gusts will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Sunday, particularly across wind-prone passes, foothills, and adjacent inland valleys. Elsewhere across western U.S., a frontal disturbance approaching the Pacific Northwest may produce periods of light showers through early Saturday, especially across coastal areas and the northern Cascades. Additional isolated showers may develop across portions of the Southwest in association with lingering shortwave disturbances through Monday. A strong surface high pressure will build southeastward behind the cold front, bringing significant cooler temperatures across central, southern, and eastern U.S. Highs will drop 15-25 degrees below normal across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley and Northeast. Widespread Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. Oudit Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$