188 
FXUS01 KWBC 302006
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 31 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 02 2026

...Heavy rain is forecast for the Four Corners states through
Tuesday morning, with a moderate risk of excessive rainfall across
a portion of Utah on Monday...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to sweep across the
northern Plains through tonight, possibly reaching into portions
of the Northeast on Tuesday...

An upper-level trough moving onshore into California will lead to
a more vigorous interaction with monsoonal moisture, producing a
round of fairly widespread heavy rainfall across the Four Corners
states through Monday night.  WPC continues to highlight a broad
slight risk of excessive rainfall for this general area of the
Four Corners through Tuesday morning, with a moderate risk issued
for central to southern Utah on Monday.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn
scars being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a fairly deep upper trough/low moving through the
Pacific Northwest will sweep a vigorous frontal system across the
northern Plains.  A round of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead
of the frontal system is expected to impact the northern Plains
from west to east through tonight.  Showers and embedded
thunderstorms are also expected across the Great Lakes ahead of a
pair of warm fronts on Monday.  By Tuesday morning, the
thunderstorms should reach the Northeast where some of these
thunderstorms could become severe. Additional rounds of
thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the
north-central U.S. on Tuesday near a meandering front and a wave
of low pressure.

As a low-pressure system tracks eastward across southern Canada, a
broad southerly flow will develop across the eastern two-thirds of
the country.  This will bring the heat and humidity over the
central Plains farther northeast into the Midwest and toward the
Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.

Last but not least, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an
area of low pressure off the central Gulf Coast for potential
tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it
generally moves west to west-northwest toward the western Gulf
Coast region.  This system will increase the threat of showers and
thunderstorms impacting the Louisiana coast on Monday, followed by
gusty winds possibly reaching the upper Texas coast by Tuesday.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms should gradually become more
isolated as the weak stationary front near the coast dissipates. 
The Sunshine State will continue to see thunderstorms most active
in the late-day hours through the next couple of days.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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