806 FXUS01 KWBC 200801 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 20 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 22 2026 ...Impactful flash floods and severe storms expected over the Plains and Midwest today and tomorrow; locally significant flash flooding remains also possible today across the Southeast and Gulf Coast... ...A cold front will clear the East Coast, bringing cooler and drier conditions, while the West remains hot and dry, introducing Critical Fire risk on Saturday... Over the next 24 hours, the next "weather-maker" for the eastern two-thirds of the Nation will take shape in the form of a lee-side cyclone in southern Colorado. As the low pressure center deepens today, strengthening southerly flow is forecast to lift a moisture-laden warm front northward into the Heartland while a dryline sharpens in the High Plains. This will set the stage for impactful flash flooding and severe weather in the Plains as thunderstorms erupt east of the dryline this afternoon. Initially, the main concerns with these storms will be for tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind. However, in the overnight hours these cells should congeal into an organized complex capable of high rainfall rates and numerous instances of flash flooding. By tomorrow morning, the remnant complex is expected to migrate toward the Midwest, dragging the threat of flash flooding eastward on Sunday as additional storms develop along the slow moving warm front. Meanwhile, additional flash flooding remains possible today across the Southeast and Gulf Coast focused along outflows generated by previous thunderstorms. The overall nature of this pattern suggests that coverage of thunderstorms in the Southern Tier will be hit or miss. That said, the very moist airmass in place and saturated soils from the last week mean that locally significant flash flooding is a possibility if a storm sits over one place for too long. Meanwhile, across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, a strong surface high-pressure system building in the wake of a departed cold front will render largely quiet and relatively comfortable weather today. A steady northwesterly wind will continue to usher in a cooler and drier post-frontal air mass, keeping afternoon maximum temperatures at more seasonable levels in the 70s and 80s alongside lower dew points. Highs in the 90s are expected today across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West/Great Basin, before declining to the upper 70s and mid-80s by Sunday. Much-above-average temperatures will return, however, to begin the new work week. Concurrently, strong winds and dry conditions are set to commence on Saturday in portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. With relative humidity values in the single digits and surface winds reaching 20 mph, fire weather will be of concern for this area. As such, there is a Critical Risk of fire weather alongside multiple Red Flag Warnings in place for Saturday. Asherman/Blanco-Alcala Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$