549 FXUS01 KWBC 111939 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 00Z Tue May 12 2026 - 00Z Thu May 14 2026 ...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast today ... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi River Valley today... ...There is a Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of Eastern Montana and Western North Dakota today... A frontal system from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast is currently producing heavy rain along southern Louisiana, the Florida Peninsula and the Coastal Carolinas. These thunderstorm systems are capable to producing isolated severe weather with locally damaging wind gusts and hail through this evening. For these reasons, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather in the affected areas. In addition Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall over the southern portion of Louisiana. A cluster of thunderstorms currently off the coast is expected to continue drifting along just off the coast through the day, today. With ample moisture in place, the cold front moving in, and peak day time heating, a new round of convection is expected to produce moderate to heavy rainfall and increasing potential for flash flooding. A system currently exiting the Northern Rockies Region is progressing east into the Northern Great Plains and will move south and eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. The frontal system will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains on Monday evening, into the Ohio Valley and the Mississippi Valleys by Tuesday evening. Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail are possible from parts of southeast Kansas, northern Illinois, northwest Indiana, and southeastern Wisconsin. As a result, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5). A similar step up is expected on the Atlantic Coastal Florida as SPC also issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the same hazards associated with the cold front over Florida. On Wednesday, the frontal system moves into the Mid-Atlantic Region where SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for isolated severe weather over the Central Appalachia Region. Furthermore, the western third of the country will be relatively quiet for the next 3-5 Days. Lastly, a Critical Fire Weather Risk (level 2/3) is in place for parts of eastern Montana and western North Dakota due to gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation. Winds are expected to reach 20-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. Humidity levels could decrease to as low as 20-25% in the afternoon. Green Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$