098 FXUS01 KWBC 280808 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 28 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 30 2026 ... A strong Nor'easter off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will bring coastal flooding, rip currents, strong wind gusts, and heavy rain to the region through Monday evening... ...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies on Monday and the Southwest, Central/Southern Rockies, and Southern High Plains on Tuesday... ...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains on Wednesday... The powerful Norâ€easter is currently drifting near the New Jersey coastline and continues to bring coastal impacts and unsettled weather from the Mid-Atlantic to New England through Monday. The surface low will gradually weaken and move northeastward into the Gulf of Maine by Tuesday and then into the Canadian Maritime Provinces by Wednesday. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast through Monday night with the rain slowly tapering off by late Tuesday morning. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Meanwhile, tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo will stream northward into the Southwest/Great Basin and the Central/Southern Rockies producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the region on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies for Monday. The threat of excessive rainfall will move into parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on Tuesday. Likewise, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Central/Southern Rockies, and Central/Southern High Plains for Tuesday. Areas of Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall will be over parts of Central/Southern High Plains and the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Considerable flash flooding is possible across portions of New Mexico and western Texas beginning Monday and continuing into mid-week. Locally, considerable flash flooding impacts are also possible elsewhere across the broader Southwest, particularly near burn scars, low-water crossings, and areas of complex terrain. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding is possible across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday. Flash, urban, and river flooding impacts may also be possible starting mid-week across central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Widespread rainfall of 3-6 inches, with locally higher totals, is expected, with the heaviest rain across the Southern to Central Plains. Also, avoid travel through already flooded and vulnerable areas. Be especially cautious at night. If you encounter flooding while driving, â€turn around, donâ€t drown.†Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Also, a wave of low pressure over parts of the Northern Plains on Monday will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow canyons/gullies the most vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$