314 
FXUS01 KWBC 161859
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 17 2026 - 00Z Mon Oct 19 2026

...Strong cold front exits the East Coast tonight, ushering in the
coldest air of the season with widespread frost and freezing
temperatures from the Plains to the East this weekend...

...Nor'easter to develop off the Carolina coast this weekend, with
significant coastal flooding and beach erosion possible along
portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week...

...Santa Ana winds, critical fire weather, and unseasonable heat
continue across southern California through Saturday...


A powerful cold front will push off the East Coast tonight, ending
the record and near-record warmth over the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts will move across the coastal Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England this evening before moving offshore. Gusty
northwest winds will follow, and rain will change to snow over the
higher terrain of New York and northern New England tonight.

A large and unusually strong area of high pressure will bring
coldest air of the season so far to much of th central and eastern
U.S. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories cover much of the
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes tonight. The cold air will
spread into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Appalachians, and
the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night, likely ending the growing season
for many locations. Strong north winds and very dry air behind the
front will create critical fire weather conditions from east Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, the front will stall off the Southeast coast, where a
non-tropical low is expected to develop and strengthen well
offshore of North Carolina this weekend. Strong and persistent
onshore winds will cause coastal flooding and beach erosion. These
impacts will begin late this weekend and become significant into
early next week from the Delaware bay to the Carolina coast,
especially at high tide. Wind gusts could exceed 45 mph near the
Outer Banks and the Virginia Tidewater. Farther south, showers and
thunderstorms may bring heavy rain and localized flooding to South
Florida on Saturday, and dangerous surf will affect the Florida
and Georgia coasts.

In the West, strong Santa Ana winds and very low humidity will
maintain critical fire weather conditions across Southern
California through Saturday. Coastal highs in the 90s to near 100
degrees will add a heat risk before the winds east and
temperatures fall on Sunday. Elsewhere, a weak Pacific front will
bring light rain to the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.


Eovino


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



$$