661 FXUS01 KWBC 231940 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 240 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 00Z Wed Nov 26 2025 ...Flash flood and severe weather threat across the southern Plains today will gradually shift east to reach the Mid-South Monday night... ...A stretch of potentially impactful winter weather expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Monday-Tuesday... ...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the central/eastern U.S.; cold front to bring chillier, blustery conditions to portions of the northern/central Plains Tuesday.... A deep upper low and accompanying surface frontal system has emerged onto the southern Plains from the Southwest today (Sunday). Moist Gulf return flow and strong winds aloft will support the development of robust thunderstorms along the eastward moving cold front this afternoon and into the overnight hours capable of both heavy downpours and severe weather. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) from the Red River Valley southwest through the Texas Hill Country. Numerous storms moving along the cold front are expected to organize into an eastward progressing line producing heavy rainfall which could lead to scattered to potentially numerous instances of flash flooding. Sensitive areas of the Texas Hill Country which have seen heavy rains recently have the greatest chance of seeing some flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) across west Texas mainly for the threat of some large hail. The storms are expected to remain ongoing along the cold front as it presses east Monday stretching from the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley west through the ArkLaTex and into northern/eastern Texas. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the Mid-South southwest to north Texas where the greatest threat for more scattered instances of flash flooding is expected given a continued organized cluster of numerous heavy rain producing storms. The SPC has also included another Slight Risk of severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley west through east Texas as continued strong deep-layer shear and increasing low-level shear will bring the threat of both large hail/damaging winds and a few tornadoes with storms developing ahead of the cold front. The system will continue eastward into the Southeast on Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall possible and the potential for at least a few isolated instances of flash flooding, especially across the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. To the north, this system is forecast to bring more moderate showers across the central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley through the day Monday, and from the Middle Mississippi Valley east through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic later Monday and through the day Tuesday. An upper-wave has brought a lingering frontal system along the Pacific Northwest eastward today spreading precipitation chances inland, with lower elevation rain and higher elevation mountain snow. The system will bring snow, heavy at times, to the northern Rockies later this evening and through the day Monday. Then, as the system emerges onto the Plains, a potentially impactful stretch of winter weather is expected along the surface low track from the northern High Plains Monday afternoon east through the northern Plains overnight Monday/early Tuesday and into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. Uncertainty remains particularly with total amounts, but at least moderate accumulations of several inches are looking increasingly likely from northeastern Montana eastward through North Dakota and into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, where snow will continue into Wednesday. A messier wintry mix is expected to track generally along the I-90 corridor east through the Plains. To the west, another Pacific system is expected to arrive in the Pacific Northwest by later Tuesday, bringing another round of lower elevation rain and mountain snow. Well above average temperatures will continue over the next couple of days for most of the eastern/central U.S. Forecast highs Monday/Tuesday range from the 80s along the Gulf Coast, the 60s and 70s from the southern Plains eastward through the Southeast, the 50s and 60s from the central Plains east through the Middle Missouri/Ohio Valleys, and the 40s and 50s across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit more seasonable across New England, with highs in the 30s and 40s, and into the Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 40s and 50s. An eastward moving cold front will also bring chillier, blustery conditions to the High Plains and western portions of the northern/central Plains by Tuesday, as highs fall into the 30s for many locations. Highs across the West will generally be seasonable, especially as the Desert Southwest moderates following the passage of the upper-low. Highs generally range from the 60s and 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest, the 50s and 60s northward along the West Coast, and the 40s and 50s for the Interior West. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$