227 
FXUS01 KWBC 290424
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 29 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2026

...Showers and thunderstorms will continue for Northern Plains
into Upper Midwest on Monday...

...Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Northeast and
Great Lakes by Tuesday...

...Persistent Dryline will bring flooding concerns over portions
of west Texas through Tuesday...

...Dangerous Heat builds across much of Central and Eastern U.S.,
while below normal temperatures persist over the West...


Shortwave impulses embedded within a northwesterly flow will
interact with a frontal boundary that stretches across the
Northern/Central Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes,
which will facilitate repeated episodes of organized convective
development along the boundary. Moist air mass, combined with
moderate to strong instability, will support showers and
thunderstorms that may produce heavy rainfall rates. Therefore,
WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley for
Monday. In addition, Storm Prediction Center continues to
highlight portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper
Midwest with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms, gusty winds,
and hail. The shortwave troughs behind the frontal boundary will
bring mixed precipitation over the highest elevations across the
Intermountain West/Northern Rockies. The frontal boundary will
gradually split with the lower portion heading into the Southeast,
bringing showers and thunderstorms over the area.

On Tuesday, the warm frontal boundary will lift and stretch into
the Northeast and the associated cold front will move eastward,
bringing chances for organized showers and thunderstorms to
develop ahead and north of the boundary. With the chances for
heavy rain rates, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall have been
placed for Tuesday over Northern New England and the Great Lakes,
with a chance for severe thunderstorms to develop across portions
of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast as well.
Furthermore, the slow moving frontal boundary across the
Southeast, will continue to bring a risk of localized flooding,
while shortwave troughs will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms across the Northern/Central Rockies and Plains.
Also, a persistent dryline in west Texas will produce showers and
thunderstorms bringing isolated flooding concerns through Tuesday.

A strengthening upper-level ridge will bring dangerous heat with
temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s across much of central and
eastern U.S. The combination of high humidity values will produce
heat indices between 105-115 degrees across portions of the
southern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and eventually into parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. Much of central and eastern U.S. will be
under a Moderate to Major HeatRisk for Monday and Major to Extreme
HeatRisk for Tuesday. Overnight cooling will also be limited,
while many locations will see lows in the mid to upper 70s. The
combination of prolonged daytime heating and limited nighttime
relief will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses,
especially for vulnerable populations and those without adequate
cooling. Farther west, persistent troughing over the Pacific
Northwest will continue bringing below normal temperatures across
much of western U.S.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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