357 
FXUS01 KWBC 280534
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 28 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 30 2026

...Severe thunderstorms will continue across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through Monday...

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will pose flooding concerns
over the northern Plains/Rockies and Mid-Atlantic...

...Critical Fire weather conditions continue into Sunday over the
Four Corners...

...Dangerous heat begins to build on Sunday across much of central
and eastern U.S., while below normal temperatures persist over the
west...


A broad upper trough over western U.S. will promote a series of
shortwave disturbances across the northern tier as we head into
the week. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
extending across the central High Plains eastward into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic, will promote unsettled
weather along the boundary. With sufficient moisture pooling from
the Gulf and unstable airmass, multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms may develop on Sunday across the Northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast,
and Southeast. With chances for training developing and leading to
high rainfall rates, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and
flooding concerns over portions of the Mid-Atlantic have been
placed, while a Marginal Risk encompasses portions of the Upper
Midwest and northern Rockies/Plains. Flooding concerns continue
into Monday over the northern tier as shortwave trough develops
behind the frontal passage, reinforcing showers and thunderstorms.
In addition, with moderate to strong instability and forcing,
there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms developing over the
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Sunday through Monday. Additional
hazards associated with the severe storms will be damaging winds,
large hail, and a chance for a couple of tornadoes.

Over the Southeast, the frontal boundary and a shortwave trough
will drop further south, bringing a typical summertime pattern
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon/evening. Further west, over western Texas, a persistent
dryline will bring repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
which can lead to localized flash flooding risk through Monday.
Onshore flow over the northwest and shortwave energy will bring
mixed precipiation across the highest elevations over northern
Great Basin/Rockies.

With the upper-level trough over western U.S., temperatures will
continue to trend cooler than average with highs within 20-35
degrees below normal through Monday. Across the eastern half of
the U.S., a dangerous heatwave is expect to build on Sunday with
highs mostly within the 90s to low 100s. With the combination of
high humidity, heat indices may reach 100-110 degrees. Much of the
central and eastern U.S. is under a Moderate to Major HeatRisk,
which can pose health impacts on those without adequate hydration
or cooling. In addition, fire weather conditions persist over the
Four Corners for Sunday as strong winds, low relative humidity,
and poor overnight recovery continues.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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