295 
FXUS01 KWBC 300529
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
123 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 12Z Sat May 30 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall across
portions of Montana on Saturday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern Rockies/Plains and Southeast on Saturday
into Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of Northern/Central Plains on Saturday...


A highly amplified late-spring pattern will persist across CONUS
through the weekend with an upper-level trough over eastern U.S.,
a broad ridging pattern over central/southern U.S., and a closed
low over western U.S. The closed low will lift from the Great
Basin into the Northern Rockies, bringing widespread precipitation
and convective activity across the Northern Rockies into the High
Plains. With increasing moisture and large-scale forcing, chances
for moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along the frontal
boundary, bringing flooding concerns across the Northern Rockies
into parts of the Plains, especially over burn scars and
vulnerable terrain. Therefore, Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has
highlighted portions of Montana with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall for Saturday. As the frontal boundary extends
across the Plains and southerly flow brings warm Gulf moisture
northward, chances for moderate to heavy showers continue, which
will bring a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall
stretching from Montana into Northern Florida on Sunday.

In addition, with sufficient instability along the boundary, Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms for western Nebraska into southwest South
Dakota on Saturday with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) stretching
into parts of Kansas and Texas. Additional hazards associated with
the system will be isolated severe gust and hail. On Sunday, the
frontal system moves eastward bringing showers and thunderstorms
across the Plains into the Southeast, with a severe weather threat
across the Northern Plains into the Ozarks. As the frontal
boundary lifts northeast into the Mid-Atlantic late Sunday into
Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front.

A frontal boundary extending across the southeast will continue to
bring rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the
Southeast into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Deep Gulf
moisture will support locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding concerns, especially where antecedent soils remain
saturated. In addition, late Saturday, another frontal boundary
will reinforce additional showers and thunderstorms into Sunday.
Therefore, WPC continues to highlight portions of the Southeast
with a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall through the
weekend.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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