550 FXUS02 KWBC 171929 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 229 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 ...Potential for a coastal storm Sunday night into Monday for the Northeast U.S. but with very uncertain wintry impacts... ...General Overview... An organized low pressure system over the Great Lakes Friday is expected to gradually weaken, while a second low forms near the New England coast and moves offshore going into Saturday. This will result in a cold front sinking south across the eastern U.S. through the weekend. A new surface low develops along this boundary across the Deep South late Saturday deepening as it exits the Mid- Atlantic Coast Sunday, with a nor'easter becoming more likely Sunday night into early Monday. This is raising concerns for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for rain and inland snow, and gusty winds. Meanwhile out West, a large area of low pressure develops off the Coast of Oregon and Washington, keeping conditions unsettled going into the weekend and early next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance today remains in good agreement on the large scale, with improving but still very uncertain details. The biggest source for uncertainty is along the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast. Guidance has trended deeper/more amplified with troughing across the East Sunday and Monday, with increasing confidence in the development of a low pressure system that tracks off the Mid- Atlantic coast and deepens over the open Western Atlantic. While confidence in a storm is fairly high, the timing, track, and exact sensible weather impacts remain highly uncertain. Much of the guidance is close enough to the coast to bring precipitation to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast but the amounts and type (rain vs snow vs mix) is variable. The exception to this is the ECMWF (including the new 12z run this afternoon) which has a farther south track with little to no precipitation for the Mid- Atlantic to the Northeast. The EC-AIFS model though, has been consistent in showing a fairly classic Nor'Easter set up for the region. This system will continue to be closely monitored. Out West, a large upper low meanders off the coast through the weekend. After this, lobes of energy may start moving inland but the models show a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength of these. The WPC forecast for today used a blend of the deterministic guidance for the first half of the period. After this, trended towards more weighting of the ensemble means given the increasing uncertainty both across the East and out West. This overall maintained good agreement with the previous WPC forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Snow showers across the West should be decreasing in coverage and intensity to close out the week across the western U.S., and generally lighter rainfall for the lower elevations of California, so no excessive rainfall risk areas are currently warranted going into Friday and Saturday. Looking ahead to Sunday, an intensifying low pressure system off the coast of Oregon is expected to enhance onshore flow from northern California to western Washington, with the potential for an atmospheric river event during that time with several inches of rainfall possible in some areas, and heavy snow from the northern Sierra Nevada to the Cascades. Rain develops from the Mid-South to southern New England by the end of the week in conjunction with the next low, and there is an increasing potential for moderate to heavy inland snow across the northern half of New England where enough cold air will be in place. After this, confidence is increasing for a coastal low by Sunday and early Monday, and if that comes to pass, heavy coastal rain and inland snow could be the case from the Mid- Atlantic to New England, and strong winds near the coast with the potential for coastal flooding. The specifics on the strength and track of this low are still uncertain, but will have direct implications on the inland extent and intensity of the precipitation, so stay tuned for later updates on this event. Warm weather for this time of year will initially be in place across a large expanse of the eastern U.S. on Friday, with the highest anomalies centered over the Southeast with highs running up to 20 degrees above late February averages, and overnight lows near 25 degrees above average. A strong cold front brings moderating temperatures by the weekend with slightly above normal temperatures confined to the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas, and near to below normal to the north. There has been a continued trend for colder temperatures into Monday and Tuesday for much of the eastern U.S. in recent model runs, with highs now likely to be 5 to 15 degrees below normal for many areas, with the coldest conditions expected over the Northeast. Santorelli/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$