828 FXUS02 KWBC 120754 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 19 2026 ***Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather across the Plains next week*** ...General Overview... An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place for the middle to end of the week across the Continental U.S., with an upper ridge situated across the East Coast states, and another trough building in across the West. Multiple impulses will eject eastward across the Plains and provide forcing for episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Summer-like temperatures will be commonplace across the eastern half of the country with highs well into the 80s and lower-mid 90s for the second half of the week, while snow will be likely across the central and northern Rockies. A cold front will approach the Eastern U.S. by next Sunday with a return to more seasonable temperatures after that. ....Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement on the synoptic scale for the middle of the week, so a general deterministic model blend works well as a starting point. It remains the case that the ECMWF and ECENS are still warmer than the AIFS across the Eastern U.S., with the operational runs indicating highs well into record territory. The guidance is indicating the potential for a pattern change by next weekend as the ridge becomes more suppressed, and a stronger cold front makes progress across the east-central U.S. after the early season heat wave, but enough differences exist by this time to merit an increase of the ensemble means to about 50-60 percent for next weekend. The NBM appeared to be a reasonable starting point for most areas of the country for temperatures, although values were raised 1-2 degrees from southern Virginia through the Carolinas where there is stronger support for highs above NBM guidance. The QPF was raised slightly across the Plains to the Midwest where convective training is possible, and winds raised some across the Rockies and adjacent high Plains Thursday into Friday with the amplifying trough. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An active weather pattern remains across the Central U.S. through the middle to end of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states, given favorable wind shear and instability parameters. The moisture will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and ahead of the ejecting trough from the Rockies. A Marginal Risk area will be valid from central Texas to southern Michigan for Wednesday/Day 4 where a few mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop. The guidance indicates a decrease in activity for Thursday/Day 5, so no risk areas are currently depicted for that day, but additional showers and storms are likely going into Friday and Saturday ahead of the stronger cold front. Out West, an amplifying shortwave and associated cold front will bring a renewed round of coastal rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest Tuesday into Wednesday, with potentially 1-2+ feet of snow for the Cascades. This moisture then moves inland across the northern Rockies through the middle of the week, with moderate to locally heavy snow from northern Idaho to northwestern Wyoming. Lighter snows will be possible across the higher terrain of Utah and Colorado. Temperatures will also be making weather headlines across much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s for many areas, and even some lower-middle 90s across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the early season heatwave reaches it peak. Numerous daily record highs are likely, especially Wednesday and Thursday. There should be a slight cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid- Atlantic, and remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. A more substantial cool down comes by late next Sunday as the strong cold front from the Plains approaches the East Coast states. Out West, readings should generally be near to below average with the upper trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$