205 FXUS02 KWBC 071858 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 14 2026 ...Major heatwaves impact portions of the Southeast and North- Central U.S. this weekend and into early next week... ...Overview... A broad upper-level ridge expands and strengthens over the Central U.S. this week, generating major heat risk concerns for portions of the North- Central CONUS. Major to extreme heat risk continues for the Southeast beneath an amplifying trough to the north and a retrograding ridge this weekend. Conditions begin to improve over the Southeast by early next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest guidance continues to show good agreement on the large scale/synoptic pattern evolution across the CONUS for the medium range period. There are some timing discrepencies with troughing off the West Coast and over the Northeast, but a general model consensus seems to handle this relatively well. Some uncertainty on weak energy over the top of the Central U.S. ridge as well, but these details may take until the short range to resolve. The WPC forecast was based on a general model compromise through Day 5, increasing to half ensemble means by the end of the period. This maintains good agreement with the previous WPC shift as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Upper-level ridging builds over the Central U.S. late this week. This will promote above average temperatures and warm/moist southerly flow into the region. Temperatures are likely to be 10-20 degrees above average across parts of the Intermountain West and Northern Plains this weekend into early next week, where major to localized extreme heat risk will be a concern. Elsewhere, ridging in the Southeast will also promote major to isolated extreme heat risk late this week and into the weekend, with heat indices between 105-115. A deepening trough along the East Coast should bring some relief to the area by early next week, though Hazardous Heat is expected to continue across Florida through the whole period. A synoptic front pushing south through the Midwest, South, and East Coast will focus showers and thunderstorms in those areas this weekend. Some storms in the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians may generate heavy rainfall leading to isolated instances of flash flooding on Friday and Saturday. A pattern shift featuring a Central U.S. ridge and weak East Pacific troughing may generate monsoonal storms across the Southwest beginning late this week and gradually increase in coverage through the period. Heavy Rainfall is possible, with localized flash flooding a threat, particularly for more sensitive locations. The Day 5/Saturday ERO highlights a Marginal Risk across this area. Santorelli/Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$