753 FXUS02 KWBC 161959 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 ...Deep troughing will cause chilly below average temperatures in the East and lake effect snow early next week... ...Overview... A very amplified pattern aloft will be in place into early next week, with ridging over the West Coast and deep troughing over the central and eastern U.S., with the latter causing below average temperatures. This pattern will also be favorable for lake effect snow that could become heavy. The trough may broaden westward mid- and late week. Gulf moisture may return to the south-central U.S. to Mid-South Wednesday-Thursday, with the potential for some wintry precipitation into the Ohio Valley vicinity by Friday. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest 00/06Z model guidance remains in fairly decent agreement on the overall pattern through most of next week. A highly amplified pattern will be in place with broad upper- troughing over the eastern to central U.S. and an upper-ridge along the West Coast. The details of embedded short-wave energies and associated surface systems not surprisingly get a bit more murky, though with good clustering at least for a pair of systems departing the East Coast early next week and around another clipper-like system mid- week. The GFS/ECMWF as well as ECMWF AIFS generally tended to be better clustered compared to the CMC into mid-week, so the updated WPC forecast focused on a GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS/CMC blend that slowly trended down the contribution from the CMC. The ECens mean was added as a replacement given its similarity to the deterministic guidance. Uncertainty increases to larger-scales by the end of next week, with disagreement on the potential for upper-wave(s) to impinge on the upper-ridge along the West Coast, and how amplified the upper- trough will remain over the eastern to central U.S. The 06Z GFS was more aggressive in bringing an upper-wave over the eastern Pacific southward over the West Coast and to the southwestern U.S. while the 00Z ECMWF/CMC were slower and weaker as the energy splits with a potential cutoff low developing off the West Coast. The means tended to favor the phasing of the ECMWF/CMC, and the 12Z GFS came in more similar to the other guidance. Further east, the GFS has been alternating between the upper-trough remaining more amplified with stronger high pressure over the eastern U.S., or retreating a bit north and allowing warmer air/moisture further north. The ECMWF has alternated a bit as well, but remains more amplified with stronger high pressure in place. The ensemble means not surprisingly land somewhere in the middle, with the latest GEFS mean actually more similar to the ECMWF than the ECens, though they both maintain a similarly more amplified trough and higher pressure further south, particularly closer to the East Coast. The AI guidance (AIGFS/ECMWF AIFS) were also similar in this fashion, with the combo of the means and AI guidance supportive of any QPF more focused over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The NBM QPF was a bit higher than other guidance, though maintained a similar footprint, with the GFS much wetter and ECMWF drier. For this part of the period, the updated WPC forecast used the GEFS/ECens means (up to 65% of the blend), with the removal of the GFS and favoring the ECMWF AIFS over the ECMWF. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Several days of lake effect and upslope flow snow are in store with the mean westerly wind pattern across the northeastern quadrant of the lower 48. The heaviest snow is generally likely Monday-Tuesday, though with more possible Wednesday-Thursday. Several inches of snow could eventually pile up to 1-2 feet in western New York downwind of Lake Ontario. Additionally, a clipper system could spread snow across portions of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest particularly on Tuesday. Dry weather persists elsewhere on Monday, but by Tuesday Gulf moisture may make it into southern Texas in particular and pool along a front. There is some model spread with when any notable rain may form, so there remains no excessive rainfall area there for Day 5/Tuesday. There continues to be a much greater signal for heavy rainfall (amounts locally as much as 2-4") into Wednesday focused along the Western Gulf Coast, though with less certainty on potential impacts given the lack of recent rainfall and dry antecedent conditions. Some rain could spread east or northeast into Thursday, across the Mid- South or Southeast. Then, into Friday, a focus of precipitation across the Ohio Valley and potentially into the Mid-Atlantic could bring winter-weather concerns (snow and/or ice), though much uncertainty remains on both amounts and where the transition zone to wintry precipitation would set up. Additionally, the Pacific Northwest to Intermountain West could see increasing precipitation for Wednesday into Thursday depending on the uncertain pattern aloft. Well below average temperatures are expected across the Midwest Monday, with lows in the negatives and highs in the single digits and possibly even staying below 0 in some locations, which is 15 to 25 degrees below normal. Meanwhile below average temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees are forecast across the Southeast Monday and Tuesday, which could meet hazardous thresholds for cold weather. Colder than normal temperatures should slowly march east on Tuesday and Wednesday, across the Southeast to Ohio Valley and then the Eastern Seaboard. Chilly temperatures are forecast to persist for the northern tier into late week, but the central to southern tier may moderate as warmer than average temperatures from the West spread eastward. Putnam/Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$