917 FXUS02 KWBC 231957 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026 ...Last vestiges of the upcoming historic winter storm to depart a snowy Northeast Monday with coastal low exit... ...Central to eastern U.S. hazardous cold threat into next week... 20Z Update: The 12Z model guidance suite continues to have very good synoptic scale agreement with the general weather pattern across the Continental U.S. through the first half of next week, with deep troughing over the East and general ridging over the West. The main model differences become apparent near the West Coast heading into Wednesday and beyond as shortwave energy from the Pacific moves inland. The UKMET and GFS are faster to bring this trough inland across the Intermountain West, whereas the CMC/ECMWF are closer and indicate a closed upper low developing. There was better ensemble support for the slower solutions, so the Wednesday-Friday time period was hedged more in the ECENS/ECMWF/CMC direction. In terms of QPF, values were raised in the vicinity of the Great Lakes and the central Appalachians compared to the NBM, and this also holds true for moisture moving inland across California later in the forecast period. The highly anomalous frigid temperatures will have some staying power across a broad swath of the central and eastern U.S. through all of next week, with areas from the northern Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and Ohio Valley likely remaining below freezing for highs each day, with the potential for some daily record lows to be set. This will be a serious problem for any areas that have extended power outages from the major weekend winter storm. The previous forecast discussion is appended below for reference. /Hamrick -------------------- ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... A horribly cold and snowy/icy pattern for many eases next week. Guidance solutions remain reasonably well clustered with the overall pattern evolution, but forecast spread and uncertainty increases more rapidly mid-later next week with small-mid scale weather systems embedded within the overall flow. Accordingly, the WPC medium-range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET models for Monday/Tuesday before switching to the more compatible ensemble means through longer time frames. This solution maintains good WPC product continuity in line with the National Blend of Models. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Arctic surface high pressure settling in the wake of the upcoming historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. into next week. The airmass will gradually moderate next week, but may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage. Amplified mean troughing aloft will bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley/Northeast, but especially in the lee of the Lakes. Upstream, an amplified mean upper ridge will prevail near the West Coast in a benign pattern for much of the West, but modest rainfall may gradually reach the West Coast towards the end of next week with shortwave energy moving inland. Widespread major impacts in the heavy ice/snow aftermath will suffer from increased recovery time in the lingering frigid air behind the storm. Daily records are most likely across the south- central U.S. as lows reach the single digits and teens into early next week. Meanwhile in the northern tier, bitter cold is forecast to linger into early next week, but become slightly less severe by Tuesday before a somewhat less anomalous surge midweek is set to subsequently work across much of the central and eastern states. Meanwhile, the Rockies should block much of this cold air from moving into the more seasonal West under closer influence of the upper ridge. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$