719 FXUS02 KWBC 062012 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 13 2026 ...Monitoring the tropics with concerns for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast late week into the weekend... ...Pattern Overview... A tropical system is likely to bring threats of heavy rainfall and flash flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast beginning later this week and lasting through the weekend. The remnants of what is now Hurricane Rachel may also bring enhanced tropical moisture to parts of the Southwest late this weekend into early next week, leading to additional heavy rain and flooding concerns. Meanwhile, the first taste of winter is likely this weekend as widespread accumulating snowfall is likely across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest available guidance has a reasonable handle on the large scale pattern through most of the medium range period, though uncertainty increases significantly late this weekend into early next week. The overall pattern features initially broad quasi- zonal mid-level flow that becomes increasingly amplified as troughing increases across the western U.S. Models have been struggling with how to resolve the smaller scale waves within the larger troughing pattern, but the trend has been for amplification to occur farther west (closer to the West Coast vs Intermountain West) and the potential for a cut-off low to develop somewhere over California. Another recent trend is for this western troughing to more directly interact with what is now Hurricane Rachel, steering the remnants back eastward towards Baja before becoming absorbed across the Southwest U.S. In between the western troughing and a strengthening ridge in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, a tropical system is likely to make landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast later Friday or Saturday with its remnants tracking northward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic later this weekend into early next week. Timing of this feature continues to be a source of uncertainty with significant spread noted in varying modeling suites. This is likely due to differences in system strength as well as the degree of interaction with an upper low over southern Texas and a ridge in the southwest Atlantic. For more information on the future track and strength of this system, please refer to the National Hurricane Center. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The main weather story heading into the weekend is the increasing potential for heavy rain and flash flooding from the central Gulf Coast to the Southeast as a tropical system likely makes landfall and tracks inland. Despite uncertainty in the exact track, timing, and strength of this system, rainfall will pose a significant risk regardless of how it evolves. As of right now, the heaviest rain is likely to fall on Friday and Saturday, with the highest totals stretching from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The latest forecast depicts storm total rainfall of 3-6" with locally heavier amounts up to 10" as a reasonable worst case scenario. Forecast adjustments will continue to be made over the next several days, so continue to check back for updates and refer to the NHC for more information on this potential tropical system. Meanwhile, the remnants of yet another tropical system will have the potential to bring impacts to the Southwest U.S. later this weekend into early next week. Hurricane Rachel is forecast to continue moving northwestward in the eastern Pacific before making a sharp turn to the northeast as it weakens. The remnants of this system will then be swept into the Southwest U.S. as a deepening trough to the west amplifies. The tropical moisture associated with these remnants will increase the threat of widespread heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding across the Southwest and Intermountain West. Slot canyons, burn scars, and low-lying, poor drainage areas would be most at risk. Despite late season tropical systems and above normal warmth across a large portion of the country, the first taste of winter is likely across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies this weekend. A significant surge of cold air with rapidly falling snow levels in the wake of a cold front will interact with anomalous moisture to produce the season's first widespread accumulating snowfall for parts of the Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming high country. The latest WSSI-P features 20 to 60 percent probabilities for minor winter weather impacts, with a 10 to 20 percent chance for moderate impacts. A little snow may even reach the adjacent valley floors, though any accumulations are likely to be minimal. Miller Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$