319 FXUS02 KWBC 270824 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 ...Significant East Coastal Winter Storm Threat this weekend... ...Central to Eastern U.S. Hazardous Cold Threat into next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Recent model guidance remains generally agreeable overall across the lower 48 and specifically with regards to impactful coastal storm development along the East Coast this weekend. The notable recent trend across the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC is towards a stronger upper-low/much deeper coastal low, with the increasing potential of wintry precipitation and wind/wave impacts for the East Coast. The ECMWF AIFS and AI guidance support this solution. However, despite the notable agreement on the intensifying system, subtle differences in the track off the coast not surprisingly lead to a lot more uncertainty with respect to the potential impacts. For now, the greatest consensus amongst the guidance is for coastal areas and possibly further inland across the Carolinas and southern New England, with more uncertainty through the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, while there is increasing uncertainty with the timing and path of upstream Pacific system(s) approaching the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into next week, southwesterly flow west of the upper-ridge favor moderate moisture/precipitation in an initially favorable Atmospheric River pattern. The guidance is also in generally good agreement on an additional clipper-like system late weekend/early next week. Overall, the WPC forecast suite was mainly derived from a composite model/ensemble solution most in line with the ECENS mean along with WPC continuity and the National Blend of Models. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes. In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint. However, the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected. Meanwhile, lingering southerly Pacific moisture fetch riding the western periphery of an amplified West Coast mean upper ridge favors a wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest this period, but no Excessive Rainfall Outlook threat areas remain in place due to a lowering guidance signal over time. Snow levels will rise with the influx of warmer, moist air, with heavier snows possible for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Energy spillng over the ridge may fuel modest snow chances to the north-central Rockies/Plains. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$