181 FXUS02 KWBC 300736 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 06 2026 ...Overview... A slow moving trough in the West will support multiple days of scattered showers and thunderstorm activity for portions of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley next week. A narrow ridge situated over the Central U.S. will generate above average temperatures from the Plains to the Midwest, before eventually shifting into the East. A deep mid-level cyclone will promote cooler and drier conditions along the East Coast mid- week. A boundary draped across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Coast could focus heavy rainfall in those areas mid-to-late- week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models are in reasonably good agreement through day 5. A general model blend consisting of the available deterministic and Ai guidance was utilized in the days 4 and 5 blends due to a growing consensus on the evolution of the closed mid-level low slowly drifting from the Northern High Plains into southern-central Canada, as well as the East Coast low. By day 5, the Canadian and GEFS means were introduced to the blend due to agreement between them on the overall pattern. The deterministic Euro is a bit more progressive than the rest of the models regarding the movement of the East Coast low, therefore wasn't included in the blend beyond day 4. The GEFS/Canadian ensemble mean combo is favored in the blend through day 7. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Slow moving surface cold fronts will focus scattered to isolated thunderstorm activity across the Plains and Mississippi Valley next week. Some convection over parts of the Southern High Plains could produce isolated instances of flash flooding on Tuesday, which is why a marginal risk (at least 5% chance) of excessive rainfall is in effect. Warm moist air will advect out ahead of the frontal system, bringing above average temperatures to portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley early to mid-week before shifting into the eastern half of the country by late next week. A plume of tropical moisture will surge northward late next week and may interact with a surface front draped across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Coast. This might generate heavy rainfall for portions of the central Gulf Coast as well as daily showers/thunderstorms for Florida. Models have shied away from a more robust solution so this heavy rain threat remains uncertain at this time. High temperatures will remain below average over the Southern Plains due to cloud cover from precipitation early-to-mid-week. It'll continue to be mild across the Southwest, but nothing out of the ordinary next week. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$