974 FXUS02 KWBC 080611 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 111 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 ...Overview... Some showers will linger along the East Coast with snow for the Great Lakes Sunday as a low pressure/frontal system begins to lift away from the region. Once the front clears the East Coast this weekend, much of the country will be dry into next week underneath sprawling high pressure, but expect renewed rainfall to the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will trend above average across the western to central U.S., with the greatest anomalies for the northern/central Plains, while the eastern U.S. generally remains around average. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Updated model guidance remains in good agreement on the overall pattern at the start of the period late this weekend and into early next week. Following the departure of an upper-low over the eastern U.S., additional upper-energies will reinforce mean troughing over the eastern to central U.S. with an upper-ridge building in tandem along the West Coast as the pattern amplifies further. The CMC notably diverges from the other deterministic and ensemble mean guidance early to mid- next week as a clipper- like system swings through the Great Lakes, showing a much delayed development out of phase with the other guidance. The updated WPC forecast used a blend of the 12Z ECMWF and 18Z GFS with a smaller contribution from the CMC for the early part of the forecast period. For the mid- to late period, the CMC is removed given its divergence from the other guidance, and contributions from the 12Z ECens mean and 18Z GEFS mean are added as differences related to less predictable upper- level shortwaves increase. The means are significantly ramped up to 60% of the blend for day 7 to handle timing differences as the discussed system passing through the Great Lakes reaches the East Coast. The GFS is notably much faster than the ECMWF, and both are faster than the ensemble means. This pattern will keep precipitation chances rather limited, especially during early next week outside of heavier precipitation for portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as Pacific systems lift northward along the western edge of the upper- ridge. There is some potential across the Midwest/Great Lakes to Interior Northeast/Appalachians with west-northwesterly flow in place, and southern-stream energies may bring showers to south Florida and Texas. The NBM QPF was a reasonable starting point for the updated QPF forecast. Some upward adjustments were made for lake-effect zones downwind of the Great Lakes and upslope areas of the Appalachians Sunday. After this, while precipitation chances for the noted locations were apparent in the model guidance, enough differences exist that adjustments above the rather dry NBM would be difficult. An increase in precipitation more broadly looks likely by later next week (Thursday) with additional Great Lakes/Appalachians chances as well as along the Gulf and East Coasts with moist return flow ahead of yet another embedded system. While possibly a bit low in coverage/amounts, the NBM looks like a good compromise for now. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation chances will linger into Sunday associated with an upper-low swinging through the Great Lakes/Northeast with a trailing cold front approaching the East Coast. Some additional showers are possible along the coast before the front clears, with the potential for a brief transition to a light wintry mix from the Mid-Atlantic north into New England. Snow showers also look to linger into Sunday for favorable lake-effect zones of the Great Lakes and western/upslope regions of the Appalachians with cold, west-northwesterly post-frontal flow in place. Following the departure of this system, precipitation chances broadly for the country look rather low for the early part of next week. One exception will be for portions of the Pacific Northwest and possibly into the Northern Rockies as one or more Pacific systems lift northward along the western side of an upper-ridge anchored along the West Coast. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall looks possible for regions along the Olympics and northern Cascades in Washington Sunday-Monday, though amounts look to remain within expected levels for this time of year, and there are no outlook areas for the Day 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Some moderate snows will be possible for higher elevations. Elsewhere, additional upper-waves within mean-troughing over the eastern U.S. could bring additional snow showers to favorable lake- effect zones of the Great Lakes region. These chances look to increase by Wednesday-Thursday as a more organized clipper-like system swings through the region. Some showers will also be possible for South Florida with a lingering frontal boundary in the region, as well as for southern Texas depending on potential southern stream energies. Precipitation chances look to increase throughout the Gulf Coast region and northward along the East Coast into Thursday as well as moist return flow increases ahead of a stronger upper- wave and associated cold front. Temperatures this weekend and into early to mid-next week will trend above average across the western to central U.S. as an upper- ridge builds and remains anchored over the region. The greatest anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees are expected to expand from the northern to central Plains Sunday to Tuesday before returning a bit closer to average Wednesday-Thursday. Despite mean-upper troughing overhead, temperatures across the eastern U.S. look to generally remain around average, and possibly even a bit above average for northern locations. Some below average temperatures by around 5-10 degrees are currently forecast across the Southeast Sunday-Monday following a cold front passage, and again on Thursday following another cold front passage. Putnam Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$