943 FXUS02 KWBC 130655 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 20 2026 ...Building Heat from the West/Southwest to South-Central U.S.... ...Heavy Rain/Flooding threats over the Midwest and the South... ...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance forecast clustering is much better than average, bolstering confidence through this medium range period. The larger scale pattern aloft features a hot West/Southwest to southern Plains ridge shift over time and periodic downstream reinforcement overtop into a central to eastern U.S. mean trough position. This amplified pattern should trend more zonal later next week as incoming shortwave energies flatten the ridge while downstream trough energies lift out. A compatible model/ensemble mean/machine learning guidance blend provides a solid forecast basis with lingering smaller scale variance mitigated consistent with individual predictability. This solution is in line with the National Blend of Models and offers great WPC product continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A wavy front will settle and trail back from the Southeast U.S. through the Gulf Coast and southern Rockies/Plains next week and provide a protracted focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Deep Gulf/tropical moisture return and instability will interact with the generally west to east oriented front to pool fuel for an ample downpour/flash flooding threat to include potential for the repeat/training of activity. The WPC Day 4/5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Tuesday/Wednesday have Marginal to Slight Risk areas for a flooding potential focus over the western/central Gulf Coast states/vicinity and this threat may extend later next week. Elsewhere, a organized heavy rain and thunderstorm threat is meanwhile slated to develop and linger next week as a series of energetic and progressive northern stream shortwave and associated surface lows/fronts dig from the north-central U.S. through the Midwest. A WPC Day 5/Wednesday ERO Marginal Risk area centered over the Midwest was introduced. Threat potential will persist later next week as systems refire activity, but also expand focus into the south-central U.S./Mid-South and the east/northeast U.S.. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$