288 FXUS02 KWBC 221948 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 248 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026 ...Significant winter storm will be ongoing across the Southeast into Sunday and tracking across the Eastern Seaboard, bringing widespread heavy snow and ice impacts... ...Hazardous cold is expected for much of the central and eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week... ...Overview... A dangerous winter storm will be ongoing across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S. as the medium range period begins Sunday. Freezing rain is likely to continue from portions of Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas/southern Mid- Atlantic, while heavy snow will be spreading into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This is on the fringes of an arctic surface high pressure system which will bring dangerously cold temperatures to the central and eastern U.S. into the early part of the week before gradually moderating. After this major winter storm, broad upper troughing will bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper systems across the north-central U.S. to Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and eventually some precipitation may reach the West by midweek. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... A widespread and significant winter storm remains almost certain at this point, but there is still plenty of uncertainty in the details at any particular location. The timing of the parent trough through the East is better, but the UKMET was still a bit slow. Subtle shifts like this in the guidance would be important towards exactly where heavy snow and ice axes ultimately set up. The WPC forecast for this trough as it exits the Northeast by Tuesday used a general non-UKMET model blend. After this, broad troughing will continue to be reinforced from the Rockies eastward through much of the week. Embedded shortwaves and surface fronts show typical spread, but a multi-model and ensemble blend seemed to handle it well. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the West Coast will eventually shift inland by Wednesday and Thursday in response to deepening troughing off the West Coast. There is plenty of uncertainty in energy ejecting from this trough acting to suppress the western ridge late in the period. Again, a blend with the ensemble means served as a good starting point for this. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Into Sunday, extreme weather will be ongoing in the form of the significant winter storm in the central to eastern U.S. and the hazardous cold temperatures in the wake of this system. In the southern Rockies/Plains, the winter storm should be winding down but still produce some light snow and ice into Sunday. Meanwhile significant freezing rain will be ongoing across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and Southeast, and reaching the Carolinas/southern Mid-Atlantic. A corridor of heavy sleet may persist into Sunday along and just north of the areas of maximum ice as well. Then to the north, heavy snow is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and the northern/central Appalachians into the Northeast. Snow amounts could reach a foot or more in the I-95 major cities from DC to Boston, though continue to monitor forecasts as changes could occur. After the major winter storm, drier and quieter conditions are likely across the lower 48 for the most part. Lake effect snow will be likely in the cold westerly flow into next week, and a clipper system could spread light snow from the north-central U.S. Tuesday to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region Wednesday. Precipitation is uncertain across the West, though some light precipitation is possible across the northern and central Rockies, and broader precipitation chances could reach the West Coast midweek. The frigid arctic air will bring much below normal to record- setting temperatures to many areas east of the Rockies. The cold air as ice and snow are occurring will exacerbate travel impacts, and then could increase recovery time as the cold lingers behind the storm. On Sunday, the Plains can expect temperatures of 20-30 degrees below normal, with even greater anomalies of 35F below normal into the southern Plains as highs only reach the 20s with snow and ice covered ground. Daily records are likely across the south-central U.S. as lows reach the single digits and teens on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile in the northern tier, bitter cold is forecast to linger into early next week, but become somewhat milder by Tuesday and beyond. In the eastern two-thirds of the nation, the cold may moderate somewhat for Tuesday and Wednesday, but turn colder again by Thursday especially for the Ohio Valley and vicinity. Meanwhile, the Rockies should block the cold air from moving into the West where an upper ridge should generally keep temperatures near to slightly above average. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$