011 FXUS02 KWBC 240612 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 112 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 31 2026 ...Central to eastern U.S. hazardous cold threat into next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest model guidance continues to have very good synoptic scale agreement with the general weather pattern across the Continental U.S. through early next week, with deep troughing over the East and general ridging over the West. The main model differences become apparent near the West Coast heading into Wednesday and beyond as shortwave energy from the Pacific moves inland. Recent UKMET and GFS/GEFS runs have been faster to bring this trough inland and downstream, whereas recent CMC/ECMWF runs have been variably slower. The new 00 UTC UKMET has trended slower and ensemble means continue to support a solution on the slower side of the full envelope. Accordingly, favor a blended solution more in line with the ECMWF/Canadian and ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Arctic surface high pressure settling in the wake of the upcoming historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. into next week. The airmass will generally moderate and re-surge next week, but may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage. Amplified mean troughing aloft will bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley/Northeast, but especially in the lee of the Lakes. Upstream, an amplified upper ridge will linger near the West Coast before energy works onshore later next week with light-moderate rainfall also set to gradually work to the West Coast and inland. This solution does set the stage for renewed wintry precipitation potential for the southern Plains later next week as upper trough translation and uncertain stream phasing leads to western Gulf frontal wave genesis to monitor, with an eye on next weekend track potential downstream to/off the still cooled Gulf Coast/Southeast. The highly anomalous frigid temperatures will have some staying power across a broad swath of the central and eastern U.S. through all of next week, with areas from the northern Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and Ohio Valley likely remaining below freezing for highs each day, with the potential for some daily record lows to be set. This will be a serious problem for any areas that have extended power outages from the major winter storm ongoing over the next couple of days. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$