416 FXUS02 KWBC 070800 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 ....Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest model, ensemble and machine learning guidance now through the 00 UTC cycle have again converged upon a reasonably similar medium-range pattern evolution, bolstering forecast confidence. Overall, favor a broad guidance blend with emphasis on compatible GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET models for Friday/Saturday before transitioning to a more GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means centric solution into next week. The blending process is designed to help mitigate lingering smaller scale system timing and strength variances as consistent with individual predictability that has been most evident with energy tracks from the East Pacific into the West. This forecast plan seems well in line with the National Blend of Models guidance and WPC product continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A lead northern stream system will progress through the Canadian Maritimes Friday into Saturday as a trailing front works down over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and back to the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Central Plains where a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Day 4/Friday Marginal Risk area is in place given pooling moisture. Meanwhile in the southern stream, a lingering front over the Gulf combined with a better-defined frontal wave drawing subtropical Atlantic moisture from well east of Florida may prolong a wet pattern into late week with protracted easterly lower level flow. Showers will focus over Florida, but may also to a lesser extent affect Southeast U.S./Gulf Coastal areas. Well upstream, an unsettling/cooling eastern Pacific closed upper trough and surface system will work inland over California and the Southwest/Southern Great Basin, with growing moderate shower chances Friday into the weekend. This occurs as a main kicker system from the Gulf of Alaska digs down the West Coast. Expect support focus for some Northwest U.S. rain/mountain snows will then work into California and spread inland into early next week. An increasing Southern Plains convective rain and potential severe weather weekend focus will develop downstream as ample moisture returns from the Gulf ahead of the upper low moving across the Southwest. A Day 5/Saturday ERO Marginal Risk area has been introduced over the southern Plains and the heavy rain/runoff threat may linger into Monday there and as the emerging precipition shield expands northeastward across the Central U.S./Midwest with subsequent system ejection to monitor. In this pattern, downstream high pressure will eminate from the South/Southeast to allow a warming trend time to spread north toward the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes this weekend into early next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$