320 FXUS02 KWBC 100706 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026 ***Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather across the Plains next week*** ...General Overview... An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place next week across the Continental U.S., with an upper ridge situated east of the Mississippi River, and a general trough over the West. Multiple impulses will eject eastward across the Plains and provide forcing for episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Summer-like temperatures will be commonplace across the eastern half of the country with highs well into the 80s and lower 90s by the middle of the week. ....Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement on the synoptic scale for Monday and Tuesday, so a general deterministic model blend works well as a starting point. Recent runs of the GFS have been faster with ejecting shortwave energy eastward from the Plains to the Great Lakes, with a quicker cold front passage across the Ohio Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic when compared to the non-NCEP guidance. There are also noteworthy differences between the ECMWF and the AIFS guidance in regards to high temperatures across the Eastern U.S for the middle of the week, with the AIFS portraying a more realistic scenario compared to the extreme values noted in the operational ECMWF. Differences across the northern U.S. become significant by the end of the week, so an ensemble mean approach is increasingly used for fronts and pressures. The NBM appeared to be a reasonable starting point for most areas of the country for temperatures, and QPF was raised slightly across the Plains to the Midwest where convective training is possible and winds raised some across Colorado and New Mexico. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The next storm system across the Western U.S. will bring a relatively strong cold front across the western U.S. that will deliver widespread precipitation chances, including rain and mountain snow, through Monday into early Tuesday. This same front will emerge across the western High Plains and bring heavy snow and high wind potential to portions of the central/southern Rockies. Precipitation chances should decrease across much of the West later into Tuesday, but precipitation chances will increase across the Pacific Northwest as the next upper low/trough approaches from the north. A very active weather pattern develops across the Central U.S. through the middle of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states, given favorable wind shear and instability in place. The moisture will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and the trough over the Rockies, and the limited eastward progression will likely result in areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of flash flooding. Marginal Risk areas will be valid across portions of the Midwest to the western Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with greater coverage of convection likely on Tuesday. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond this time across portions of the central and southern Plains. Temperatures will also be making weather headlines next week across much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s for many areas, and even some lower 90s across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the early season heatwave reaches it peak. There should be a modest cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. Out West, readings should generally be near to below average with the upper trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$