302 FXUS04 KWBC 032159 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 558 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 04/0000 UTC THRU JUL 07/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR UPDATE... THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND THE 1800 UTC NAM HAVE TRENDED SWD WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF AXES TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY COMPARED TO THEIR 0000 AND 1200 UTC RUNS. THE AXIS OF THE 1800 UTC GFS HAS STAYED MOSTLY THE SAME..ALTHOUGH IT IS SHOWING HEAVY PCPN FARTHER TO THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM THE 1200 UTC RUN. THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE TO EXPAND HVY PCPN WWD INTO NERN KS/SERN NE AND TO PUSH THE AXIS SLIGHTLY SWD FOR POINTS TO THE SE ACRS SERN IA..NRN MO AND INTO SWRN IL. OVERALL..THE QPF AXIS OF THE 1200 UTC GFS IS FAVORED AS IT IS THE FARTHEST TO THE SOUTH. ORAVEC DAY 1... ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VLY INTO OH VLY... A DECENT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE INTERIOR WEST IN PIECES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE TOP OF A FLATTENING 500 MB RIDGE. THE ASSORTMENT OF UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING WILL INTERACT AND CLASH WITH A VERY ACTIVE 850 MB JET AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH AS AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT. IN THIS VICINITY... A DEEP PLUME OF LL MOISTURE A0A 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL POOL GENERALLY NEAR THE MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WARM FRONT. THE RESULTANT APPEARS TO BE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION COMPLEX STARTING OFF OVER ERN NE AND HEADING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE MID MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SPREAD ON THE EXACT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND BACK A FEW WEEKS AGO WITH ENERGY EXITING THE WEST... THE GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY TOO BOLD WITH THE RIDGING AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH QPF. HPC FOLLOWED THIS THINKING ALONG WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND UKMET OVER THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE GFS/UKMET ALSO HAD SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN GEM ON KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND GREATEST INSTABILITY... INSTEAD TO THE RELATIVE COLD SECTOR WHERE MORE STEADY RAINFALL/DEBRIS WILL BE LIKELY. THUS THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL START OFF FROM ERN NE THROUGH SRN IA/NRN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL AND ENDING IN THE LWR OH VLY. HOWEVER... THIS IS A FLUID SITUATION AND COULD CHANGE. ...SOUTHWEST... DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT OVER THE SRN PLAINS... DEEP MONSOONAL FLOW FROM MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO AZ/NM ON SAT. IN FACT... THE MODELS PINPOINT A WEAK VORT/CIRCULATION MOVING OUT OF NRN MEXICO INTO SERN AZ/SRN NM ON MON AND WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TRIGGER MORE SLOW MOVING CONCENTRATED CONVECTION/HEAVY RAINFALL. THE OVERALL STEERING CURRENT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OF 5 KTS OR LESS AND WITH 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWS AVAILABLE... WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE RUNOFF PROBLEMS. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE ON QPF AMOUNTS HERE. ...NEW ENGLAND... THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EAST ON SAT AND UPPER DYNAMICS FROM THE FEATURE WILL STREAK INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ALREADY LOW ANOMALOUS UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LOWER MORE INCREASING THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND WARMING SURFACE TEMPS. THE RESULTANT WILL BE ANOTHER ENDLESS ROUND OF INCREASING AFTN SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS ON QPF AMOUNTS. DAYS 2/3... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS TO MID ATLANTIC/COASTAL CAROLINAS... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 2 WITH NUMEROUS SHRTWVS ATOP THE BOUNDARY. A SIGNIFICANT MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE TN/LWR OH VLY DAY 2 BRINGING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MORE. NAM AND GFS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A FARTHER NORTH PATH OF THIS MCS THROUGH WV/VA/NC WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE MAIN RAINMAKER FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE MSTR REGIME. BY DAY 3 THE WRN SECTION OF BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS WILL GAIN SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM AS A CDFNT SPARKING STORMS THERE. A LARGE REGION OF PRECIP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ENSUE. USED THE GEFS FOR TIMING OF THE FNT GIVEN MDL DIAGNOSIS...WHILE AMTS WERE TAKEN FROM THE EURO AND ENSEMBLES WHICH SUFFERED LESS FEEDBACK. ...NORTHEAST... UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE EXHIBITING A VAST ARRAY OF SOLUTION REGARDING THE EMBEDDED BUNDLES OF ENERGY IN THE FLOW...AND GIVEN THE LOW PWS...DYNAMICS WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR. MDL DIAG PREFERS THE CAN GLBL IN THIS REGARD...SO HAVE USED ITS QPF HERE TOO. GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NRN NEW ENGLAND/UPSTATE NY...ESPECIALLY WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING CAN ENHANCE LIFT. ...NORTHWEST... PRONOUNCED HG FALLS AND A POTENT VORT WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW ON DAY 3...ALTHOUGH MSTR WILL BE FAIRLY SCANT. GFS IS THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS AND EVEN INDICATES MDT RAINFALL FOR THE VLYS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER QPF SOLUTION. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION SHOWING MAINLY LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS TO THE NRN CASCADES AND NRN ROCKIES. ...FLORIDA... A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE WANE DUE TO A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MUSHER/SOWKO GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 05/00Z 0.01 484691 477672 472667 467665 461666 454667 451668 448670 443677 440683 437690 436695 432697 427697 423700 420701 416703 414707 414714 416719 421727 422733 423738 427742 427748 425755 427763 431767 437769 442769 448765 453759 457751 459749 468761 477769 482775 488778 492778 496776 501768 502760 502751 498738 494728 486713 484707 484701 484698 484691 484691 0.01 521158 521149 518146 509141 507136 504129 499118 496115 493114 490115 488121 484125 481128 479129 478133 480139 485143 491151 497153 499158 502163 506165 513165 519163 521158 0.01 523034 521022 519016 517014 511010 506010 501012 499013 497010 499006 503997 506988 506981 505976 502974 498975 492979 486984 477990 473991 468996 465995 466979 466970 467962 466955 463947 459938 456934 455930 451921 449914 447908 440891 435879 430867 426860 420853 416847 412836 409827 407822 404817 394804 389797 382797 376799 375807 372825 369843 369848 367852 364861 358877 358884 358892 357899 358905 357912 356931 345960 344973 343982 338997 334004 331012 326026 323029 323032 321032 318035 314034 309033 304033 300035 299037 296046 296053 296056 294059 292061 287062 270057 264056 259055 255056 245061 247069 248073 250075 257080 261083 271093 280102 282109 286116 292122 295124 299126 303129 307130 317131 322131 328129 335126 342132 349135 355135 360133 362129 364122 363116 361112 360110 360104 361094 360088 359083 361079 367079 378087 384090 389090 399090 408086 415083 415091 411096 400106 393111 386115 379118 378122 379126 384126 393125 402125 409120 415116 417118 420125 417131 413137 410144 408147 408149 415153 418156 419161 417175 418184 420189 421193 424195 428195 430192 429187 426180 424175 423168 424162 426157 427153 428147 430139 431139 433150 434156 438161 440164 445164 449165 453165 454158 455152 456139 457133 458129 463122 474108 476102 474091 473088 469086 464085 463081 473080 479079 485077 491072 497065 503059 513053 520043 523034 0.01 299815 298811 295808 291804 286800 281798 274796 268795 262795 257796 252799 248801 246804 244808 243815 243819 245822 250828 255829 261830 272832 278833 286833 291833 295832 296830 298822 299815 0.25 475684 473679 471678 463679 459677 455684 448700 444707 439713 434720 434729 438739 437749 437753 441757 444758 447756 450751 451747 453739 456732 458722 460715 464707 471701 475694 475684 0.25 455976 456968 454960 451949 448940 446936 440927 429913 425898 420887 416877 412866 406852 401844 395838 390836 385840 377857 373866 370876 367886 366897 365918 365930 366944 369944 372941 374937 377935 380936 380938 380945 378956 378981 378992 382999 386002 389002 396997 403989 409983 411979 416977 422976 427977 431978 434976 437975 443978 447981 451983 455976 0.25 448076 447074 447072 444070 442068 441068 441072 444074 447076 448076 0.25 433092 435088 433086 430085 427084 425088 427091 429092 430092 433092 433092 0.25 416057 415053 412049 407045 403043 399042 395041 389040 383041 382046 384050 387053 392056 395058 401060 404061 410062 412062 415060 416057 0.25 357005 358002 358998 355997 353999 350003 348006 347007 345010 345011 344014 343017 344020 346023 348023 351021 352020 353016 354015 354013 356009 356008 357005 0.25 349120 341096 340091 338083 336077 333073 330069 331065 336062 338058 338055 334049 330048 327050 322054 321058 322063 320068 310072 299076 292077 285078 284082 288087 292090 294094 294101 293106 293112 295116 300120 306123 310124 315124 334114 339116 343119 348122 349120 0.25 273809 270807 269806 267805 265804 262804 259803 256804 254805 253808 254811 255813 257815 258815 261817 264818 267818 270818 272816 273813 273810 273809 0.25 278078 277078 275078 274078 275078 277078 278078 0.50 472692 470688 469689 468692 465694 462696 460698 459702 461701 464699 466697 469695 471693 472692 0.50 449728 447726 446725 444725 441728 442731 443732 447733 449730 449728 0.50 439951 438945 436940 432936 429933 426929 423922 421911 419901 415892 412886 399851 394846 390845 387847 381859 375873 370888 368903 368922 369926 372924 376920 379918 381919 384926 387935 388946 387965 386972 386983 388988 392988 396988 400986 409976 418964 423960 427959 431959 438955 439951 0.50 398053 398052 395050 395049 395050 398053 398053 0.50 326112 326108 322105 318104 315105 310105 304107 301109 299113 301116 305120 309121 314121 317120 321118 325115 326112 1.00 417948 414917 413910 410903 405892 400886 394879 386875 381876 378878 375888 373898 372903 373909 379907 381907 385912 387916 390927 392953 394967 394975 397980 400980 402978 405974 410965 414956 417948 1.50 412929 411920 409913 405906 402901 393892 389890 384890 384896 386902 389910 391919 393928 393938 394947 396956 398974 402973 405969 410957 411950 412941 412929 2.00 409926 409920 407915 402908 399905 394905 393907 393919 395930 395941 398952 400960 405954 407946 408938 408930 409926 3.00 404935 405931 405927 404923 404920 401917 400916 397915 396918 396922 397925 397929 397932 397933 397937 398938 399940 401942 403939 404937 404935 24HR QP VT 06/00Z 0.01 497680 494673 491671 489666 485654 483648 480645 475635 472630 467626 463624 460622 458622 454624 451628 450632 449640 449648 448656 445663 444671 443680 442694 442701 440711 436724 434742 432748 432752 433757 436759 439757 447754 453748 457743 460736 468729 473732 477738 480740 483737 488732 498731 504731 510727 507716 503706 499700 497690 497680 0.01 543173 524126 520112 517097 516090 520087 524084 526080 526067 524060 522054 518048 515044 510041 505040 499036 494033 491031 490028 485014 483008 480003 477998 474990 473987 471987 467986 460980 456975 453974 451975 442980 422992 406000 401002 397999 391994 383987 379983 379976 377944 376927 378922 383916 393900 396891 400879 403857 400842 399826 395810 395803 393794 389769 387755 386750 383744 381741 378739 375739 372741 369741 367739 367733 362721 358719 356720 350721 348723 346727 342731 339735 338740 334750 326767 317786 316791 318796 323798 327797 331798 330805 329810 327814 322817 313825 307832 306843 306847 307852 312862 318870 324878 326885 326891 324912 324925 321937 319947 321961 322970 325979 327992 327997 324002 319011 315019 310026 304033 299040 293049 291052 287055 281056 271054 263050 255043 249037 245029 236028 231028 230032 229044 228048 229052 234060 237066 248080 253086 258092 266099 271105 278113 288116 294118 301119 310121 316115 323108 329098 334097 338100 341101 341099 343092 343079 344073 347068 351068 354069 357071 361071 364073 367075 371074 377073 381075 383088 385091 389090 397086 404075 410074 414071 418066 421065 426066 433068 437072 441078 441080 437082 433087 425092 427098 427103 422114 420121 421127 431134 437136 440140 442141 447141 452140 458140 461140 463137 463131 460125 461118 463114 464109 463104 460102 455100 452097 451094 451077 451067 452058 456047 461037 464033 467031 470033 476041 477047 476055 471064 469067 468072 470081 474092 479102 481107 483113 490126 495140 499152 505164 515185 522200 527198 532193 539182 542177 543173 0.01 452023 452022 449019 449018 447019 446020 446023 445027 446031 447032 449031 450031 450027 452023 452023 0.01 413134 411126 405125 401123 400120 398116 394115 391116 389120 388124 390128 392131 399135 398139 397145 396150 399153 403151 407147 410141 413134 0.01 298815 297807 291805 284805 279803 273802 268798 261798 255799 248802 241806 239812 241819 243823 247825 251824 257824 263826 274831 279832 283830 284827 283825 282822 290819 296817 298815 0.25 475693 475689 474684 471683 469686 466688 463689 461691 458693 457698 457699 455703 455705 455710 458710 460711 461710 464709 467708 470706 472704 475702 475699 475695 475693 0.25 501068 501063 500060 498059 497058 496059 495063 497067 498068 500070 501068 0.25 380762 378754 374753 371754 368761 365766 362764 357765 352771 346787 343801 343806 345812 343818 337826 335833 334841 337849 340858 342869 342878 340885 338894 337905 338914 336922 331937 330946 330953 334974 335987 335997 335004 333013 329021 327027 329034 331037 337041 341043 346043 354040 358042 361049 364053 366054 374054 383052 390050 395049 400047 406042 412041 416039 419036 417029 413026 410026 402027 395025 380021 372018 368010 366001 364991 365968 365955 366947 371914 374905 375896 377886 381877 388864 391856 393848 393838 391827 389820 388809 386798 383784 380762 0.25 314098 315087 315081 313077 309071 302068 283066 268062 253058 248059 246061 246063 248065 250068 254072 259078 269087 282096 296103 302105 307104 310103 314098 0.25 270817 269814 268814 265812 262811 261811 258810 257809 255808 253810 253811 253812 255813 257815 258815 261817 264818 265819 267819 269817 270817 0.50 384803 383796 380792 374790 370794 356782 351785 349789 347794 347801 350816 348821 345825 343829 342835 342843 343850 346865 347873 346878 346905 344916 340928 337939 336945 337953 340959 341965 339977 340992 340000 339007 336018 334022 337025 341028 347030 353027 357024 360019 361011 359995 359967 360953 361946 363940 365933 365928 366919 367915 369888 373877 378867 381856 383842 384832 384822 384803 0.50 403038 401034 397032 392030 383030 377027 371029 367029 363033 362040 365047 371050 375050 383047 389045 397042 403038 0.50 305091 305085 302081 296078 291076 285075 277073 268072 264071 264072 269079 275084 283088 291092 299094 302094 305091 1.00 379806 378802 378806 379807 379806 1.00 373850 371843 366836 361829 357826 353826 349830 347834 346842 348848 353857 355864 358867 361869 363869 368867 371862 373854 373850 1.00 359807 358804 356801 355805 356808 359810 359807 1.00 352013 352009 351006 350005 347006 345010 345013 348016 351014 352013 1.50 368856 368852 367849 366847 365846 363842 361840 358837 357837 354838 354839 354842 355846 356849 357852 358855 359859 360861 363861 366860 368856 368856 24HR QP VT 07/00Z 0.01 492610 489602 487599 486599 483598 478603 475605 475608 473615 473623 472628 470641 469645 467649 465649 460648 457649 453655 452661 449673 445683 442687 439694 440697 444700 446713 449719 451722 451726 449739 447743 443743 439739 434743 428754 425759 424766 422777 419786 418791 416795 418799 422804 424805 427803 432794 434790 436789 445797 449795 452792 457786 462783 469777 479767 483761 486755 487749 488742 487729 487723 487718 488714 493704 494698 494690 491676 491669 492661 494647 494630 492610 0.01 535220 537210 538197 536183 531165 529159 529150 531144 532132 533112 531103 528096 523091 517090 510090 504091 501095 499099 493112 489118 484125 480127 474128 472136 469139 464140 459143 455149 454154 454159 442204 445201 449196 455187 459181 465178 477178 483182 486187 484196 483199 479204 475208 469212 467217 467222 472227 472230 470233 465231 460232 457234 456237 459245 464250 468248 472245 479248 485255 490261 492268 495272 497273 499276 502278 505278 507276 509269 510266 509256 509252 513244 518244 523241 527235 530230 535220 0.01 510875 509865 507858 503849 498842 495838 490833 486831 480830 476830 468830 465837 465845 465855 467866 470873 473881 477885 482888 495890 498890 506887 509882 510875 0.01 500247 499241 496238 493239 493240 495244 496245 498247 500247 0.01 484993 483983 481974 479966 476959 472954 470952 469948 466943 461937 455935 450940 448946 447951 448957 454968 458975 459984 461994 463000 467006 469008 472008 475006 480001 484993 0.01 388696 383695 379693 376695 366709 350731 341745 328757 323763 317769 313776 312785 311791 308798 304806 301811 296816 290819 281818 273816 268814 258800 251797 250805 250809 252813 251817 247819 255824 268830 278836 281840 284845 286849 287856 289866 290874 291885 289903 294922 303956 305964 307973 306982 304988 304991 302997 298002 298008 297011 291015 285019 280023 271035 267041 260042 246048 244053 242056 238055 234054 231057 232061 234065 238071 248081 254084 262085 266090 267094 265096 263098 263102 266106 285109 290111 298112 309117 314116 317114 323110 326108 328103 330099 333098 338099 340093 341088 342080 344075 347072 352070 357070 361072 368074 370076 372083 376086 378087 381086 387083 393083 411060 414061 419061 421060 419056 414049 409041 404034 400027 399023 397020 390014 386014 382017 378021 373023 365025 358027 355030 350032 345034 343031 343025 346009 345007 344003 346993 348986 349978 346969 344964 344958 346926 345917 346907 348898 351886 352879 354875 357872 363861 368855 371847 375830 374822 373817 370808 367799 368782 369773 373765 381748 382741 382736 380730 388696 0.01 426985 425966 424958 421951 418947 415946 411949 407951 404958 403964 399970 391976 385980 382984 384989 389994 393997 398001 402002 406002 409999 412995 414992 418990 426989 426985 0.25 477672 475669 471668 462668 459673 458679 460686 463694 459703 457708 459711 467719 474720 478711 479696 479686 477672 0.25 519177 521163 522157 523149 521143 520144 515149 511150 506147 502146 497148 494153 493163 497166 502168 504169 507173 509183 513184 517181 519177 0.25 364751 362746 358744 348748 343754 338761 333770 328780 320799 316807 310815 306823 302829 303851 300875 301885 303899 305911 307922 313945 317960 320965 319972 309009 312010 316007 319006 322007 321012 318016 310023 304028 298035 296040 293043 288047 276050 267053 263054 265056 266059 264064 265072 267075 270080 282089 297098 302097 304095 303090 303082 304075 305069 306065 313058 316056 318052 317046 318042 324035 330025 334015 336004 340993 341990 341981 340976 336973 333973 330971 327965 326958 327951 329945 332937 335924 338902 339894 341884 351864 355855 359845 363837 365832 366829 365825 351819 350812 351806 352796 354783 358774 363763 365755 364751 0.25 366051 367046 365043 362042 358043 352046 345048 338049 330049 324053 323056 325058 328060 333060 338057 344054 349057 355059 361058 364055 366051 366051 0.50 360754 358750 352751 346757 340765 335773 329788 326796 324805 322809 318812 315815 314819 312837 309875 311895 312918 314930 317938 320942 323942 325940 328931 330913 329890 330880 330875 328870 327857 328848 329838 332831 336825 339815 343799 346789 349779 354768 358760 360754 0.50 325992 325989 326985 325982 323981 322982 320986 320989 320993 321996 322996 324993 325992 0.50 311052 310042 311038 310036 305039 302043 298049 294056 291059 288063 292068 296074 299068 302062 307056 311052 1.00 320865 320863 318862 317863 316866 316870 316873 317875 317876 320876 320875 320872 320869 320866 320865 $$