663 FXUS04 KWBC 122153 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 452 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 13/0000 UTC THRU FEB 16/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 1... ...UPDATE... LATEST HI-RES GUID IS SHOWING MORE SUPPORT FOR A GEORGIAN BAY/ONT FETCH TNGT THAT WL IMPACT AREAS TO THE SE OF LK ONT. HAVE BOOSTED LIQ AMTS THRU THIS REGION. SCNTRL U.S. PCPN AREA IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY ALL THE GUID. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WV SATL PICS AND SATL DERIVED PW LOOPS...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI LVL MSTR LIFTING NWD INTO THE REGION AND IT IS A LITTLE HIER THAN MDL FCSTS. MDLS ARE SHOWING RATHER HI MSTR FLUX/PW ANOMALIES INTO THE WRN GULF REGION TNGT...BUT THERE IS NOT STG LOLVL BNDRY SUPPORT. HAVE BOOSTED AMTS...ESPCLY ALONG THE UPR TX CST WHERE THE DEEPER MSTR/MSTR FLUX WL BE AIMED. OTHER CHANGES WERE RATHER MINOR...BUT DID BOOST AMTS THRU NCNTRL TX DUE TO THE VORT OVR WRN TX THAT WL CONT LIFTING ENE TNGT INTO/ACRS THE REGION. OVR THE WRN U.S. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASED/DECREASED AMTS. ECKERT ...CNTRL STATES... THE LATEST MDL RUNS CONT TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE ROCKIES H5 TROF EWD INTO THE CNTRL STATES DURG THE PD. AHEAD OF THIS SYS..ISENTROPIC LIFT WL BE STRENGTHENING OVR THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE..LEADING TO WHAT WL BE AN EXPANSIVE PCPN SHIELD OVR MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY. INCREASING LLJ WL BRING IN PWS ABV 1 INCH INTO TX AND THE LWR MS VLY..WHICH COULD SUPPORT MORE ENHANCED RAINS OF GTR THAN 0.50 INCH THIS REGION. OTRW..MDL QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A LRG AREA OF 0.25-0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS FM PTNS OF KS..OK AND TX INTO SWRN MO..MUCH OF AR AND WRN LA..SO HAVE ABV AVG CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST. WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AHD OF THESE HGT FALLS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU A LRG PART OF THE REGION..PLS SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS. ...WRN STATES... THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF NERN PAC HGT H5 S/WVS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO THE PREVIOUS ONE..DIGGING SSEWD ALG THE PAC NW CST INTO CNTRL CA BY THE END OF THE PD. LRG SCALE LIFT ASSOCTD WITH PRETTY DECENT HGT FALLS AND CDFNTL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AXIS OF SLGTLY HIER PWS WL SUPPORT INCREASING PCPN AMTS/COVERAGE ESP FM WRN OR SWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL CA. THE HIER TERRAIN WL BE FAVORED FOR THE HVIER TOTALS..WITH SOME VERY WK LOW LVL ONSHORE COMPONENT ALSO DVLPG. THE GFS QPF AMTS SEEM A LTL TOO LGT..SO LEANED TWDS SLGTLY HVIER SOLNS AS PER THE RMNDR OF THE MDL GUIDANCE. THIS SHLD BE A RESPECTABLE SNOW EVENT FOR THE SRN OR CASCADES..SHASTA-SISKIYOU AND SIERRA..PLS SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS IN THE SNOWFALL POTNL. DAYS 2 AND 3... ...MID TO LWR MS VLY TO OH/TN VLYS AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST ON MON AND TUES. THE TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH. OVERALL HPC CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON MASS FIELDS AND QPF FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH SUBTROPICAL JET AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR MORE ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE ELEMENT FROM LA INTO MS/AL MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...WHILE MORE LIGHTER OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE COLD SECTOR FROM THE MID MS VLY EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE OH VLY. BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOW 850 MB MSTR FLUX DIVERGENCE ANOMALIES OF 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WRN/CEN GULF COAST REGION BTWN 00-06Z TUE...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME BOTH THE GEFS/SREF SHOW 850 MB LLJ ANOMALIES PEAKING AOA +4 OVER THE LA/AL/MS COAST. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF HALF INCH TO INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM LA/AL/MS GIVEN THE FVRBL LLVL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...WHICH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE FLATTENING UPPER WAVE AND (THUS) FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. ...WEST COAST STATES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION... POTENT UPPER SHRTWV AND MID TO UPPER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD FROM CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN ROCKIES MON THROUGH TUES...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE...DROPPING SW ACROSS CA ON WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK... TIMING...AND INTENSITY OF BOTH FEATURES. HPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS...WHICH ARE CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL COMPARED TO THE NAM AND CMC. ON TUES... THE CLOSED LOW FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD TO NM/SRN ROCKIES FOR LIGHT TO MDT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED QPF ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CEN GREAT BASIN AND SW INTO THE SRN AND PTNS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY WED...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS...THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP GULF MSTR AND ENHANCE THE WAA/WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASSCD PCPN SHIELD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO ON WED...SECONDARY VORT MAX DROPPING SE ACROSS CA WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LGT TO MOD PCPN ACROSS PTNS OF CEN/SRN CA...SOME OF WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRAS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE LATEST QPFHSD. TERRY/HURLEY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 14/00Z 0.01 520264 520255 519247 516238 512230 506218 503211 499208 494205 488203 481201 475199 461196 459194 459191 463186 468183 474181 480177 483169 482159 479155 473153 469154 466156 465159 464167 462171 459171 456170 455164 452158 449155 446157 443162 442176 438183 436187 432185 425176 427174 431173 432171 432167 428163 424158 419149 414147 408147 405147 402145 399139 396134 390131 390129 391125 395120 402119 409121 414122 417125 448121 453118 454114 452111 454105 454098 453094 449091 445092 441090 434091 429088 423103 421109 418111 415110 412106 409101 407101 404106 400105 394108 390110 383111 380107 376110 374115 371112 368115 365113 362115 355114 349113 345118 346123 349127 353131 357133 360135 367143 365148 364151 366153 363154 360157 360161 362165 366168 370171 370177 360178 356179 354179 353177 353173 353169 347168 344166 339164 333163 328162 324163 323166 324169 327172 332175 335179 337183 338189 341198 348207 353213 354222 359230 367237 376246 380249 385252 393257 399259 406261 418263 432265 455265 459266 465266 476268 483269 490271 502277 505277 509276 514272 520264 0.01 456713 457708 454708 451709 449709 448709 444709 443709 441710 439712 440716 444718 444722 443724 443727 445731 446730 448729 451727 453725 454724 455720 456718 456715 456713 0.01 457804 444767 439748 436744 432739 431735 433731 429729 425730 423732 423736 418743 415749 419759 422763 424768 425774 422774 417773 412777 405782 398786 387794 384797 381801 378806 376811 379811 383809 388805 395800 407796 420801 423799 424795 426788 432788 437795 441802 444806 449811 454812 456808 457804 0.01 442938 438904 435889 432881 428874 421868 415864 410864 406866 390881 382885 373887 367886 360884 347880 341880 335881 330883 324887 318891 311897 301908 291917 284923 278930 275936 269942 265947 258951 253955 248961 244966 242973 243979 247985 253990 265998 276004 283008 290013 292015 293021 291029 289032 288038 289043 291047 293054 298059 302062 305063 311064 317064 322064 327065 330065 334068 340069 346068 348070 347075 345080 347085 349095 352099 355100 360096 368098 371097 373098 375101 379101 383097 388095 392097 406083 415080 418078 421080 424083 425077 424073 421069 418062 417049 415045 414037 413029 414026 416023 423017 426011 429002 433995 437985 440978 442971 442966 443961 443954 442938 0.01 400031 401022 400014 399004 397996 394991 387996 370006 364008 361010 354016 340026 337031 336036 335039 336042 338045 342049 347050 353050 358048 367046 375047 380051 381054 377056 372056 371058 373060 376061 380065 383065 395053 399041 400031 0.01 361199 361198 359195 358195 356192 354190 353189 352187 352183 354180 352176 349179 346182 347186 347189 347190 349193 350195 350197 352199 354201 356201 357202 360200 361199 0.25 437771 437767 435763 433760 430761 430762 431766 433768 433769 436772 437773 437771 0.25 461242 448220 444218 438217 433217 429216 425218 421222 418225 418222 417217 415214 411210 410199 408190 406182 403185 401193 399197 394197 386194 382191 374188 367185 362184 360186 359188 364195 369201 372207 374214 381215 391221 393222 394225 392229 391234 392240 396245 403249 419253 426254 434254 446251 456247 459244 461242 0.25 413072 411068 407065 404064 401063 398064 395065 389067 387071 385076 388079 392082 395082 398080 401078 404076 410074 413072 0.25 396173 396169 396168 394165 393165 391164 390164 388166 386168 387170 389172 390172 393173 396173 396173 0.25 395945 392938 388935 380933 373932 370930 367927 358910 355907 351905 343905 337906 331908 324912 318917 309922 301927 293930 281940 275946 271952 265966 257972 259978 275981 287981 295982 299988 304992 310993 315994 319000 321003 325002 331998 343983 349968 347961 349955 355949 362948 369950 377950 384949 392947 395945 0.25 376072 375068 373065 372064 369064 368065 369066 371068 372070 375072 375074 376072 0.50 449238 444236 440237 434235 429232 423235 417234 414233 412230 412227 414223 415219 411217 408216 407214 406207 403204 400204 395202 386197 380194 374192 367191 365189 362189 366192 372200 379208 387213 399219 403222 404224 404228 401239 405243 412243 420245 425248 429248 436246 441244 449238 449238 0.50 333964 332961 326959 321962 318965 316968 313971 311975 311978 317979 322977 328975 330972 332967 333964 0.50 313941 314937 313934 310931 304931 299932 292936 284942 279948 277952 277957 276961 275967 277973 280973 288971 296966 303960 310955 311951 311944 313941 24HR QP VT 15/00Z 0.01 528169 517148 514142 515131 515126 514122 511116 493112 489107 488097 485094 482095 476102 475094 471089 471085 473080 470075 465070 462068 450068 447068 441066 432063 428058 424057 421060 422065 425067 430069 433074 436076 439078 440082 436088 432090 429091 427088 428095 428099 427102 423107 428113 427117 428121 432120 434118 437118 442121 445124 448125 453122 455118 459116 461118 460122 460127 457130 454131 452140 450146 446150 444153 444158 446165 446174 448179 445182 441185 443188 446192 448195 451196 460186 468179 471182 472186 475188 478188 485188 488185 489180 490176 495171 498171 516176 525175 528169 0.01 505296 507290 507284 506276 503270 504265 506263 509255 510245 508236 505230 501224 499219 499216 497211 494208 489206 480203 476203 465208 459207 455208 453210 448209 444212 437215 432218 426221 421224 417228 415232 418234 425238 425241 425246 424252 425255 432258 438259 445257 457258 464259 468263 473268 478275 485287 490294 493297 496299 501299 505296 0.01 461756 460750 458746 454741 452739 448739 443740 440741 437743 433747 429752 423757 416761 412765 402775 393784 389789 384793 366812 363817 360817 357810 354806 351796 346789 345779 346773 350763 356754 362744 369732 375721 381713 387705 389701 387686 384674 380672 377673 374676 348694 341703 337706 335711 331724 327735 323746 318754 313765 309777 306786 305799 304805 301809 294818 287837 279846 273856 268865 266869 266875 267881 266889 265901 262911 255918 248939 251959 251962 253963 258964 267958 273958 278959 286955 291952 297949 301946 309945 316943 321941 331937 340938 352939 364940 373948 383951 396953 400955 403956 406954 413945 417942 422940 426941 430941 437939 448915 450911 452902 451894 449883 448872 448866 449858 452854 455852 459847 460841 462824 461819 460815 456807 454799 453797 450794 450787 453783 458774 460770 460766 461756 0.01 451825 451824 448821 447818 446818 447822 448826 449830 451825 451825 0.01 447084 445080 444080 442080 444082 446084 447085 447084 0.01 430187 432184 430182 426180 427175 430173 431168 427162 423157 422151 420148 415142 413139 412133 411127 414123 417119 418116 417108 414101 414095 412090 408088 404087 406083 411080 414079 417075 418069 417062 405054 400054 395056 388059 382061 378061 370057 373053 374051 373049 368048 365049 359051 352054 349060 350068 350072 348075 343080 338082 333078 330076 327079 326083 325088 325094 323097 315105 312112 309122 308129 307133 309135 311138 316140 320140 324138 328133 333130 339135 344141 348146 351152 351172 348172 347170 345167 342164 338164 334163 332160 331158 327158 321158 315156 313158 313163 321174 326178 329180 333181 337184 338186 341192 344199 345207 355216 359219 364220 372220 373213 373209 375208 380207 385209 392209 398206 402201 404193 407190 411187 416188 424190 430187 0.01 360114 357114 360114 360114 0.25 510151 510147 509146 507142 506141 504138 502136 501135 498135 498136 496140 496144 497149 500152 503152 506153 508154 510151 0.25 479244 481240 479237 476237 475238 475240 476242 477244 479244 0.25 400174 401169 401164 401155 403146 401140 397134 394128 400113 398109 395108 392109 386112 380114 371119 365122 359121 351114 348110 346106 344098 341094 338095 336098 333102 331107 332112 340120 348127 359133 362138 364143 375151 379155 382159 381164 379167 378171 383175 389178 396177 400174 0.25 344747 341747 338749 336751 335752 334754 332757 331758 330760 328763 326767 325768 328770 330769 332766 335764 335763 336760 338758 339758 341755 343753 343751 344747 344747 0.25 381083 381079 379075 378074 375073 372074 369074 369075 368079 368082 369085 371086 372087 375087 377086 378086 381083 0.25 354853 351842 348832 342825 337824 334824 329826 326832 324835 320836 313836 308849 304855 299859 292861 285863 280868 278875 277890 273905 271920 270926 274931 278938 282942 285945 290944 295940 318923 328912 335908 341904 351892 355886 355878 352865 354853 0.50 396147 396142 393139 387137 381134 381123 378121 375122 371128 367133 367140 372144 381145 385146 388149 393150 396147 0.50 344864 343859 343854 338851 327848 321845 318846 314848 312854 309858 306860 303864 301868 294877 290882 288881 287877 284878 281880 282886 284888 283891 281896 280903 283904 290897 292900 291903 289907 286914 285919 285928 284934 287940 290938 301930 304925 303918 303913 305911 309906 332894 337888 339884 343871 344864 0.50 341106 342102 341100 339102 339106 340106 341106 1.00 302904 307897 306895 304896 302899 300901 299903 297905 295909 295912 296912 298909 299908 300906 302904 24HR QP VT 16/00Z 0.01 394639 382649 370659 340679 318699 317713 316723 314728 307739 304744 303752 303766 303773 301780 298786 296792 295806 293819 291826 289829 285832 278834 273838 269844 269849 269857 266863 264868 266875 271879 276879 281876 285872 293863 305851 320832 330822 334806 340795 344784 347774 350766 352762 356755 366745 371739 373734 378726 383720 387713 390703 395691 401678 409662 412656 415647 411636 407633 401633 0.01 487224 488215 487210 482206 476204 470205 465208 462208 456210 455206 454201 456196 458190 463184 467179 473176 476176 483174 485170 484164 479159 474157 468154 465150 462145 461140 460131 456126 452122 449119 448115 452110 456106 458089 459080 457062 455057 456051 459046 460043 458039 454036 450035 446036 443038 441042 438056 434061 432064 432068 433072 436074 437076 439080 439090 437094 434094 432092 427088 430102 423103 423108 430111 432115 437118 443119 444125 443133 445138 445141 442137 440135 436136 433144 430155 429159 432164 436167 440172 441176 439181 436181 431177 426179 399191 395192 390191 389187 391183 395179 395176 390171 379165 378159 374157 364159 359156 356152 352150 346149 341151 338156 334159 329160 325161 318163 314167 310171 306179 305186 306189 312190 317187 323181 330183 336187 339190 341197 342206 343209 348209 369209 371211 371215 368218 368223 374227 383231 387235 390238 394240 398242 403247 408251 412253 416255 421257 427255 435253 453246 477250 481247 482242 481237 479230 474224 478221 481221 486224 487224 0.01 417778 417772 415768 412768 410769 406776 400783 387791 380796 375802 370806 369811 369814 359826 356832 356834 360836 365835 368833 370830 374824 380820 387817 396811 403807 409803 415796 417788 417778 0.01 433936 433929 431921 426912 423908 419906 413902 409899 404897 393898 387897 384893 381888 378882 372874 367867 363865 358863 355861 350862 344864 341864 334864 331864 325871 322875 318878 315880 308884 299883 296886 294890 291899 288906 286910 282914 278916 275916 270915 267916 264920 261929 260933 261938 263939 267937 271935 276934 281935 283937 283940 280951 276960 274965 273970 277985 282991 289995 298999 300003 300008 299013 299021 299029 298033 301040 307047 313055 318060 324067 324075 322078 322082 321088 318094 316101 312110 311114 312117 314123 317127 324131 330131 334129 338125 343122 350123 357124 358121 358118 357114 357110 362110 369113 373116 376121 373128 372134 372141 375143 379142 384141 387137 390132 393128 399129 403129 407127 410122 413122 417121 418118 417115 414111 412103 412096 412080 415076 421072 424069 427064 428061 427055 422045 423038 424033 426022 429010 430995 432978 432960 433936 0.01 369018 370011 368004 364000 360998 342004 338003 336005 331010 328012 323015 320019 320032 318036 319039 322045 327048 333054 341059 341063 338067 330075 335078 339080 343083 347082 348075 349068 350062 350058 352055 353044 355037 355034 357031 363025 369018 0.25 379664 376663 371665 357674 346682 336691 333697 332703 331715 327726 325732 321738 316745 314750 313757 312762 314769 316772 319772 322770 328760 335749 340741 349730 357721 367710 374702 376696 377689 379677 380671 379664 0.25 410988 409978 408969 406954 402942 394930 388927 381926 378927 375930 374933 371934 366930 362924 362915 362905 361896 358888 356879 353875 346875 339879 333882 328887 323891 318895 304900 299902 296908 293922 293928 294932 296936 295940 294945 291957 291966 292971 295973 300975 303979 308982 311984 311987 306016 310018 314015 319005 324999 326992 328986 331979 345977 349973 353970 359970 365969 369964 376963 382964 389962 393965 396970 398982 398991 393000 391007 390013 390023 391032 391037 392040 397042 402041 406037 406034 409024 410011 410002 409994 410988 0.25 384094 385090 385087 384083 384079 381077 379075 378075 375075 374075 374079 374083 375085 375086 377090 378093 379094 381095 383094 384094 0.25 375184 374181 374180 372178 369177 366178 365178 363180 362181 362184 365184 368184 371184 374185 375184 0.25 344171 342167 340170 341173 344172 344171 0.50 369676 368673 366671 363672 353679 347686 343690 341695 339697 338702 336714 336722 338725 341726 344724 348720 350716 355706 359699 365691 368686 369680 369676 0.50 353911 352904 348902 345896 341893 338893 334895 329900 327904 321911 318913 315910 312907 308905 304905 301906 298910 297919 298923 301928 305931 306936 304942 301946 299950 298954 299962 303966 307967 313966 322972 324972 326968 332965 334960 344944 348934 351922 353911 1.00 341924 337922 331923 326928 322933 320939 317947 318951 319954 323954 328953 332947 335942 338935 341928 341924 $$