169 FXUS06 KWBC 291901 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 08 2026 The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in good agreement that a 500-hPa ridge restrengthens over the north-central contiguous U.S. (CONUS) by June 7. As this anomalous ridge builds again, 500-hPa heights are forecast to reach 582 dm as far north as the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes which are 120 meters above normal for early June. Multi-model ensemble mean solutions also depict a July-like ridge with 588 dm heights from Kansas City to St Louis. This anomalous 500-hPa ridge strongly favors above-normal temperatures across the Central to Northern Great Plains and Midwest. Due to positive 500-hPa height anomalies, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast for a majority of the western CONUS, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Compared to yesterday, model solutions indicate lower 500-hPa heights across the Pacific Northwest with an amplified trough shifting inland. Therefore, a two-category change (leaning above to below) was necessary for northwestern Oregon and western Washington. 30-day precipitation has averaged 200 to 400 percent of normal across most of south-central Texas, the Gulf Coast, and Lower Mississippi Valley. This recent wetness led to soil moisture (SM) increasing to above the 90th percentile in many of these areas. A wet pattern and saturated soils are likely to persist through mid-June. There is a significant negative correlation between SM and temperature during June. Therefore, SM is expected to have a cooling effect on temperatures across the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, and Gulf Coast region through at least early June. Enhanced cloudiness and precipitation are also expected for these same areas. The 6-10 day outlook favors near normal temperatures for much of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Texas with a slight lean towards below normal temperatures across parts of the Rio Grande Valley and Big Bend region of Texas. The southern stream is forecast to remain quite active for this time of year with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the far southern CONUS. This supports elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities from New Mexico and Texas east to Georgia and Florida. For the remainder of the eastern and north-central CONUS, the 6-10 day precipitation outlook is more uncertain but in general the tools are slightly wetter closer to the Northern Great Plains. This region would be most vulnerable to mesoscale convective systems tracking overtop the mid-level ridge. An amplified 500-hPa trough favors above-normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest, while below-normal precipitation is more likely for the remainder of the western CONUS (outside of the climatologically dry areas of California and Southwest). The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in reasonably good agreement with a mid-level ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the Aleutians and southwestern Alaska. This longwave pattern yields an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for those areas. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for southeastern Alaska and precipitation tools generally lean towards near or above-normal precipitation. A deep 500-hPa trough favors below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for the North Slope. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii except the northwestern islands. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast throughout Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement on the 500-hPa pattern and temperature tools offset by uncertainty in the precipitation outlook. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 12 2026 A broad, anomalous 500-hPa ridge is forecast to cover much of the lower 48 states during early to mid-June. Only minor differences are apparent among the ensemble means as a summertime pattern becomes established. The GEFS maintains more mid-level troughing along the East Coast and also depicts a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the Southeast. Later in week-2, the ECENS is faster with an increase in 500-hPa heights across the Pacific Northwest. The broad-scale ridging aloft with its associated positive 500-hPa anomalies favor above-normal temperatures for a majority of the CONUS. A widespread area with a greater than 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast across the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern to Central Great Plains, Central Rockies, and parts of the Great Basin where multi-model ensemble means depict 7-day temperature anomalies of +5 to +15 degrees F. The 8-14 day temperature outlook leans warmer-than-normal across much of the eastern and western CONUS, but probabilities decrease farther away from the anomalous mid-level ridge axis. Although moist soil moisture is expected to continue providing a cooling effect, 500-hPa height departures of +30 meters (substantial for June across the South) support elevated above-normal temperature probabilities for most of Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast. Near normal temperatures are most likely for the Lower to Middle Rio Grande Valley. Near normal temperatures are also favored for northwestern Oregon and western Washington with a variable temperature pattern (below to above) likely during week-2. The precipitation outlook is highly uncertain in a summertime pattern dominated by convective rainfall. The uncalibrated dynamical model output and the analog tool derived from the manual 500-hPa height blend was generally followed as guidance. Although the outlook leans slightly (33-40% chance) wet for the Southern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, there are signs that the southern stream becomes less active with shortwave troughs. The tools are in good agreement with the largest probabilities (> 40%) across New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley, due in part to the drier climatology. Along the northern periphery of the ridge aloft, above-normal precipitation is favored for the Northern Great Plains and northwestern Minnesota. The GEFS (reforecast and uncalibrated) along with the analog tool support leaning on the drier side for parts of the Midwest. The analog would support an even larger area of below-normal precipitation across the central CONUS which is plausible. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. The amplified trough early in week-2 supports elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, near to below-normal precipitation is favored for the remainder of the western CONUS. A closed 500-hPa low to the north of Alaska with a trough extending south to the Bering Sea supports an increased chance of above-normal precipitation statewide for Alaska. Based on the analog tool, probabilities exceed 40 percent across western Mainland Alaska. Temperatures are expected to be close to average for southern Mainland Alaska with a slight lean towards above in parts of southeastern Alaska and below for northern Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii except the northwestern islands. Above-normal precipitation remains favored through week-2. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to high forecast confidence in the temperature outlook offset by weak or conflicting signals among the precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19980509 - 20230529 - 19910531 - 20250525 - 20180526 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20240508 - 19910531 - 19980509 - 20230529 - 20030514 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 04 - 08 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 06 - 12 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$