741 FXUS06 KWBC 111902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed March 11 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 21 2026 Large scale teleconnections appear to be playing a large role in the evolution of synoptic features over North America leading into and through the extended range forecast period. Observations currently indicate a negative Pacific/North America Oscillation (PNA) and a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), both of which would tend to promote negative height anomalies over Alaska and the Canadian Maritimes, and positive height anomalies over the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and the North Atlantic. Teleconnection forecasts favor a continuation of both -PNA and +AO through week-2 and this is well reflected in ensemble solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies, particularly early in the period when these indices are likely to be at their highest values. Over the 6-10 day period, the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE all depict a fairly deep trough over Alaska and extending well south towards Hawaii along with an amplified ridge upstream near the Kamchatka Peninsula. A broad area of positive height anomalies is favored over the western and central CONUS, along with a narrow but deep trough extending from the Davis Strait down the Eastern Seaboard, and strong positive height anomalies over the North Atlantic. Amplified ridging centered over the Great Basin strongly favors above normal temperatures across the western and central CONUS. Probabilities above 80% are widespread from the Rocky Mountains west, and exceed 90% for the Great Basin, Desert Southwest, and most of California. Conversely, the deep trough over the Eastern Seaboard is favored to bring a brief shot of cold air, tilting the odds towards below normal temperatures east of the Mississippi. Continued troughing over Alaska and easterly flow at the surface strongly favor below normal temperatures across the state, with chances exceeding 80% for much of the southern Mainland. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies surrounding Hawaii tilt odds heavily towards above normal temperatures across the Islands. Amplified ridging over the Great Basin pushes the storm track well north into Canada and favors dry conditions across much of the CONUS. Below normal precipitation is favored for most of the CONUS with the greatest odds (>60%) of below normal precipitation indicated for the southwestern CONUS. A slight tilt towards above normal precipitation is indicated along portions of the U.S.-Canada border, which might see an Alberta clipper come through, and for the Florida Peninsula due to enhanced convective activity in the Caribbean region. Strong onshore flow into the Canadian Pacific coast and surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska tilts the odds towards above normal precipitation for southeastern Alaska and portions of the eastern Mainland. Anomalous convective activity in the Pacific subtropics and potential Kona low formation during the forecast period pushes Hawaii firmly towards above normal precipitation, exceeding 60% chances for all but the Big Island, where odds still exceed 50%. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Very high, 5 out of 5. Excellent agreement among various forecast tools, informed by pattern recognition and support from teleconnection modes. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 25 2026 The week-2 period generally features a persistence of the pattern described for the 6-10 day period. The trough over the East Coast is significantly weaker in the 8-14 day 500-hPa height anomaly manual blend, and the dominant ridge over the western CONUS is depicted as slightly flatter but also much broader, keeping negative height anomalies confined to the high latitudes. The trough axis over Alaska and the North Pacific is favored to persist as well, although like the other synoptic features reviewed, is favored to weaken relative to the 6-10 day period. Above normal temperatures continue to be strongly favored across the western CONUS, with chances remaining above 90% for portions of the Desert Southwest. The area indicated for above normal temperatures is also expanded eastward significantly from the earlier period, with above normal temperatures at least slightly favored for all of the CONUS except for southern Florida (near normal temperatures favored) and the Northeast U.S., where near to below normal temperatures are most likely. The cold pattern for Alaska continues, and the whole state is favored for below normal temperatures, with odds greater than 80% continuing for much of southern Alaska. Hawaii remains strongly favored (>60% chances) for above normal temperatures. A northward-displaced storm track is likely to continue through week-2, extending the dry period seen in the 6-10 day outlook for much of the CONUS. Chances of below normal precipitation remain highest over portions of the Desert Southwest and southern California (>50%), and at least a slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for most of the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. Near normal precipitation is indicated for South Texas and southern Florida, which may still benefit from increased convective activity in the subtropics, while areas near the U.S.-Canada border tilts slightly towards above normal precipitation, sitting at the edge of the northward-displaced storm track. Continued surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska keeps Southeast Alaska slightly favored for above normal precipitation, while below normal precipitation is most likely for southwestern Alaska. Enhanced odds of above normal precipitation continue for Hawaii, exceeding 60% for all but the Big Island. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very good agreement among models and tools, slightly offset by increasing spread in model solutions towards the end of the period. FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910219 - 20070313 - 20040305 - 19970301 - 20120309 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910220 - 20040305 - 20070313 - 20220318 - 20070319 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 17 - 21 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 19 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$