277 FXUS06 KWBC 191929 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu March 19 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2026 The 0Z European ensemble (ECENS), GEFS, and Canadian ensemble (CMCE) means are in good agreement on the predicted amplified 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period. The manual blend indicates below normal mid-level heights across most of the higher latitudes of North America stretching across most of Canada and parts of southeastern Alaska, with height anomalies approaching -250 meters near northeastern Hudson Bay. A pair of mid level troughs are forecast within this broad area of below normal heights, one centered over eastern Canada and a weaker one over the Gulf of Alaska. There is some uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the second mid-level trough. The CMCE and ECENS means are weaker with this system than yesterday while the GEFS mean maintains yesterday's stronger forecast. The deterministic models further complicate the issue as both the GFS and European (ECMWF) dynamical models extend the trough farther south, almost halfway between southern Alaska and Hawaii. A compromise of the ensemble means is favored, leaning toward the GEFS due to its consistency. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast upstream from this trough, centered over or near the Bering Sea, with positive height departures of greater than +210 meters. The trough over eastern Canada is forecast to extend southward across New England, but most of the remainder of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) is expected to be dominated by expansive mid-level ridging, with the manual blend depicting height anomalies exceeding +150 meters from the Four Corners Region into the central Great Plains. Mid-level troughing is forecast in the vicinity of Hawaii, which is expected to result in an active pattern across the state. Expansive ridging supports above normal temperatures for most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS, extending into the southeastern CONUS. The predicted anomalous strength of this ridge leads to exceptionally high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across the southwestern CONUS. Below normal temperatures are more likely across the northeastern CONUS due to predicted mid-level troughing reaching southward from eastern Canada. An alley of uncertainty exists between these two features, stretching from North Dakota into mid-Atlantic and upper Southeast. This reflects uncertainty regarding the southward and westward extent of cold Canadian air, and its persistence at any given location. Confidence for below normal temperatures is relatively high across most of Alaska due to Arctic surface high pressure expected to dominate most of the state. Chances for below normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for parts of southeastern Alaska. Above normal temperatures are favored for the western Aleutians and over the northeastern fringes of Mainland Alaska, associated with the predicted strong anomalous ridging. Near to above normal temperatures are also favored for Hawaii, influenced by observed above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Pacific, and in agreement with the Consolidation. The predicted expansive ridge and associated surface high pressure support below normal precipitation across the majority of the CONUS. Confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for below normal precipitation over much of California and adjacent Nevada. Above normal precipitation is favored over the Great Lakes and Northeast under unusually strong, cyclonically-curved mid-level flow between positive 500-hPa height anomalies to the south and much lower heights over eastern Canada. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored in the far southern High Plains where a fetch of moist, tropical air may begin to set up south of the center of the mean anomalous mid-level ridge, and also over southern Florida in deep easterly flow. Farther north, downstream from a mid-level trough, Southeast Alaska also has slightly enhanced chances for above normal precipitation; however, subnormal amounts are favored over most of Mainland Alaska near and downstream from a strong mid-level ridge, under Arctic surface high pressure. An active pattern is likely across the island chain underneath predicted persistent cyclonic mid-level flow, consistent with the Consolidation and most forecast tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to agreement among ensemble means on the amplified 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some differences in model temperature and precipitation tools, and uncertainties regarding the extent and persistence of cold air in parts of the East. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts of the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models continue to be in general agreement on the 8-14 day average mid-level circulation pattern, and are consistent with the 6-10 day period forecasts, with some deamplification of ensemble mean forecast 500-hPa height anomalies. Across the CONUS, today's manual blend depicts the greatest positive 500-hPa height anomalies a bit farther east and less amplified than yesterday, exceeding +90 meters in a band from the south-central Great Plains into North Carolina and adjacent Virginia. This lifts mid-level heights across the Northeast over the course of week-2, limiting subnormal mean heights to New England. A mean mid-level trough continues to be predicted for the Gulf of Alaska, with uncertainties of location and strength carrying over from the 6-10 day period. Meanwhile, strong mid-level ridging is forecast to continue over eastern Siberia, albeit with somewhat reduced amplitude relative to the 6 to 10 day period. Mid-level troughing is forecast to continue impacting Hawaii, continuing a long-duration active pattern there. Despite the reduced amplitude of the week-2 pattern, widespread above normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of the CONUS due to the expansive nature of the predicted ridge. Confidence for above normal temperatures is still very high (greater than 80 percent chance) over parts of southeastern California, southeastern Nevada, and part of the Four Corners region. Subnormal temperatures are favored across the Northeast and portions of the Great Lakes despite the mid-level trough slowly retreating northward into Canada. Below normal temperatures continue to be likely across most of Alaska under persistent Arctic surface high pressure between the upstream Siberian ridge and downstream Gulf of Alaska trough. Above normal temperatures are expected in the western Aleutians and northwestern Mainland Alaska under the continued influence of the strong Siberian ridge. The temperature forecast for Hawaii tilts warmer than normal, consistent with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific, and the Consolidation. The deamplifying mid-level ridge covering much of the CONUS is expected to allow a strong mid-level jet to sink into the northern tier of the region from Canada, slightly enhancing the odds for above-normal precipitation in a band across the northern CONUS from the Pacific Northwest through interior New England. Farther south, enhanced chances for wetter than normal conditions cover southern sections of the Rockies and Plains under southerly return flow expected as the mid-level ridge flattens and drifts eastward. Southern Florida is expected to be under deep easterly flow, increasing the odds for surplus precipitation there. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored across parts of California and the interior West consistent with ECENS output, and also across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast under surface high pressure. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored over Southeast Alaska downstream from a mid-level trough of uncertain strength while below-normal amounts are more likely over the western Mainland closer to the strong mid-level ridge. A prolonged active pattern is favored to continue for Hawaii underneath predicted persistent cyclonic mid-level flow and below-normal 500-hPa heights. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement on a predicted high amplitude pattern early in the period, offset by uncertainty in the details of evolving pattern changes toward the latter half of week-2. FORECASTER: Rich Tinker Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070316 - 20030329 - 20250324 - 20070311 - 20130314 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070315 - 20030329 - 20250325 - 20130314 - 20150401 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 25 - 29 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 27 - Apr 02, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$