155 FXUS06 KWBC 051902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri June 05 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2026 Ensemble solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE have come into much better agreement with regard to the evolution of the synoptic picture over North America today, and are continuing to depict a wave train with notable amplitude for this time of year. Today's 6-10 manual height blend places troughs south of the Aleutians, over the Northern Plains, and over the Canadian Maritimes, along with a pair of ridges off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and over the Great Lakes region. The North Pacific ridge is quite amplified with a large +150 dm anomaly west of Washington state. The downstream trough over the Plains has also become more pronounced in the manual blend as ensemble solutions have come into better agreement. This overall synoptic pattern has been present in ensemble solutions for several days and has been coming into better focus, increasing forecast confidence. With the exception of the core of the Northern Plains trough, positive height anomalies are favored across the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), which in turn favors above-normal temperatures for most of the Lower 48, particularly under the ridge axes over both U.S. coasts. Chances exceed 60% along the West Coast, and are above 70% for the eastern Great Lakes region. With a trough axis over the Great Plains, probabilities of above-normal temperatures are lower for the Southern and Central Plains, and below-normal temperatures are slightly favored for portions of the Northern Plains. With a stronger ridge indicated over the North Pacific, increased southerly to southwesterly surface flow is favored across Alaska, in turn bringing an end to a prolonged period of below-normal temperatures experienced by the state lately. Above-normal temperatures are now most likely for the western and northern Mainland, as well as for Southeastern Alaska, and near-normal temperatures are indicated for the remainder of the state. Continued warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subtropical Pacific tilt the odds towards above-normal temperatures for most of the Hawaiian Islands, except for the northwestern islands where near-normal temperatures are indicated. The ridge-trough-ridge pattern stretched across North America generally favors active weather east of the Rockies, and drier conditions for the West. Today's 6-10 day precipitation outlook has a weak tilt towards above-normal precipitation across the CONUS east of the Rockies, as well as higher chances (40-50%) along portions of the U.S.-Canada border with a surface low pressure system favored to pass over the Canadian prairies. Above-normal precipitation odds are also increased for much of the southeastern CONUS, where rounds of moist return flow are likely to result in enhanced precipitation across the region, especially the Florida Peninsula, where chances exceed 50%. With moderate troughing over the Bering Sea and onshore flow at the surface, above-normal precipitation is also favored across Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is also most likely for Hawaii, the result of enhanced subtropical moisture potentially tied to emerging El Nino forcing. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Very high, 5 out of 5, due to run-to-run consistency, much better agreement among ensembles, and very good agreement across forecast tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2026 During the week-2 period the synoptic wavetrain is favored to weaken slightly and become more elongated as the North Pacific ridge widens and the trough-ridge pair over eastern North America is favored to propagate eastward slightly. The main feature continues to be a ridge-trough-ridge stretching across North America and as such the week-2 outlooks are very similar to the 6-10 day period, and with much better agreement among model ensembles forecast confidence in the 8-14 day period is also increased relative to previous days. Above-normal temperatures remain favored across the Lower 48 as twin ridges keep 500-hPa heights mostly above-normal across the CONUS. As during the 6-10 day period, odds are highest along the coasts, exceeding 50% across the Eastern Seaboard and over 60% for the West Coast. Odds of above-normal temperatures weaken across the country's midsection, and near- to below-normal temperatures are indicated for the Northern and Central Plains and portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley as troughing continues over the U.S.-Canada border. Above-normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska as onshore flow persists, while near-normal temperatures are indicated along the southern coast of the state, potentially due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Elevated SSTs continue to push much of the Hawaiian Islands towards above-normal temperatures, with odds decreasing from southeast to northwest. Amplified ridging over the North Pacific continues to keep portions of the northwestern CONUS tilting towards below-normal precipitation, while the trough-ridge over eastern North America continues to favor above-normal precipitation east of the Rockies. The high latitude surface low is forecast to move quickly, weakening that tilt over the Northern Plains, while a slight eastward shift in the trough axis leads to a slight uptick in chances of above-normal precipitation up the Eastern Seaboard as far as western New York. Near-normal precipitation is most likely across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. The trough over the Bering Sea is likely to remain, continuing to push the state of Alaska towards above-normal precipitation, while enhanced subtropical convection leads to the same result for Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to run-to-run consistency, much better agreement among ensembles, and very good agreement across forecast tools, offset by generally weaker signals overall relative to the 6-10 day period. FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140523 - 20010607 - 19960601 - 20130528 - 20180611 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140524 - 20010607 - 20230604 - 19910607 - 20170605 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 11 - 15 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 13 - 19 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$