107 FXUS06 KWBC 131902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri March 13 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2026 The 0z GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles are in excellent agreement regarding a high amplitude mid-level ridge over the western and central CONUS during the 6-10 day period. This favors above-normal heights over much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), with the manual 500-hPa height blend indicating a +210 meter positive height anomaly center over the Four Corners. Troughing and associated negative height anomalies are predicted across the higher latitudes of North America, including Mainland and Southeast Alaska, consistent with a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (+AO). Ridging over the Bering Sea favors above-normal heights over the Aleutians. Early in the period, troughing is forecast along the East Coast downstream of the ridge axis to the west. However, as the period progresses, the ridge is forecast to broaden, resulting in a displacement of troughing over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period. As a result, closer to normal heights are indicated along the East Coast, with below-normal heights over portions of the southern Florida Peninsula and Northeast. Troughing across the north-central Pacific favors near- to below-normal heights across Hawaii, with the best chance for below-normal heights over the northwestern-most islands. High probabilities of above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the western and central CONUS, and into parts of the east-central CONUS underneath strong ridging. Probabilities exceed 90 percent across much of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and into parts of the Great Plains where temperatures 20-30 deg F above-normal are predicted, with the National Blend of Models indicating widespread daily records. Temperatures in the 80s to 90s deg F are possible over parts of the Southwest into central and southern California, with triple digit heat becoming more likely over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures in the 90s deg F are also predicted across portions of the Central and Southern High Plains. Conversely, troughing initially over the East is favored to bring a period of relatively colder temperatures into the region. While moderation is likely toward the middle of the period, the GEFS has come into better agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles compared to yesterday regarding another round of colder temperatures across the Northeast late in the period tied to more persistent troughing over the region. Given the variability, near-normal temperatures are forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts, extending inland to the Great Lakes. Below-normal temperatures are more likely across south Florida and the Northeast. Continued troughing over Alaska and easterly flow at the surface strongly favor below-normal temperatures across the state, with chances exceeding 80 percent for much of the southeastern Mainland. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies surrounding Hawaii favor above normal temperatures across the Islands. Amplified ridging over the western and central CONUS results in a more northward oriented storm track into Canada, and dry conditions over much of the CONUS. Probabilities for below-normal precipitation exceed 70 percent over the Four Corners into parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure behind a departing front favors increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation across much of the eastern CONUS. Slight tilts toward above-normal precipitation remain across south Florida tied to the aforementioned front shifting southward, and across the parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Maine where there is more influence from troughing and cyclonic flow. Higher probabilities for above-normal precipitation extend northward into Southeast Alaska and southeastern Mainland Alaska. Near-to below-normal precipitation is favored for the remainder of Alaska consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools. Anomalous convective activity in the central Pacific subtropics and potential Kona low formation favor above-normal precipitation across Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Well above average, 5 out of 5. Excellent agreement among various forecast tools regarding substantial warmth across the western and central CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2026 During week-2, the ridge axis initially forecast across the western and central CONUS is predicted to decrease in amplitude and gradually shift eastward. As a result, above-normal 500-hPa heights are depicted across much of the CONUS in the week-2 manual height blend, although the magnitude of the positive height anomaly center (+120 meters over the Central Plains) is lower compared to the 6-10 day period. While mid-level heights are forecast to increase across the East, the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles depict troughing across the Northeast and northwestern Atlantic, with some evidence of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) pattern emerging later in the period as ridging builds near Greenland. This maintains below-normal heights in the manual blend across the Northeast. Troughing is forecast to shift from the Gulf of Alaska closer to the northwestern CONUS leading to decreasing heights in the wake of anomalous ridging. The GEFS and Canadian ensembles depict a more amplified trough compared to the ECMWF ensemble, which would be suggestive of greater height falls over the West. However, the weaker ECMWF gives some pause, with near-normal heights indicated across the Pacific Northwest in the manual blend. Below-normal heights remain forecast over much of eastern Alaska, with ridging over the Bering Sea leading to above-normal heights over the Aleutians and far western Mainland Alaska. Near-normal heights remain forecast for most of Hawaii, although troughing upstream may tilt the northwestern islands toward below-normal. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures remain favored across much of the West, with higher probabilities also spreading farther into the East. The highest probabilities (greater than 90 percent) are over the Four Corners into the Central and Southern High Plains. While temperature anomalies are forecast to decrease relative to the 6-10 day period, above-normal temperatures are expected to persist throughout the period. Troughing over the Northeast to Northwest Atlantic continues to favor enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures over the Northeast, with the GEFS trending colder compared to yesterday. Given the better agreement and the potential for a -NAO to develop and keep colder air in place over the region, probabilities of below-normal temperatures are increased across the Northeast. Troughing approaching the northwestern CONUS favors decreasing mid-level heights and increasing chances of near- to below-normal temperatures over parts of western Washington and extreme northwest Oregon, further enhanced by increasing onshore flow, cloud cover, and precipitation. Below-normal temperatures remain favored for Alaska. As the troughing shifts south and weakens, some moderation is likely across northern Alaska, with the highest probabilities for below-normal temperatures over southeastern Mainland Alaska. Above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist across Hawaii. A northward-displaced storm track is likely to continue through week-2, extending the dry period seen in the 6-10 day outlook over much of the CONUS. There is some uncertainty emerging across the West where the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict more amplified troughing developing which would lead to an uptick in precipitation tied to increased onshore flow. As a result near- to above-normal precipitation is highlighted across much of the northern and central West Coast. While below-normal precipitation remains favored over the Southwest, probabilities are reduced compared to yesterday. Increased chances of below-normal precipitation remain over portions of the Four Corners near the positive height anomaly center, and extending across the Southeast underneath surface high pressure and with limited signals for significant precipitation. Near-to above-normal precipitation remains favored across extreme south Texas and south Florida, and along the U.S. Canadian Border. Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska favors near- to above-normal precipitation over eastern Alaska, while below-normal precipitation is more likely for western Alaska. Enhanced odds of above normal precipitation continue for Hawaii, with chances exceeding 60 percent for the entire island chain. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very good agreement among models and tools, offset by decreasing amplification and emerging uncertainty regarding the precipitation forecast across the western CONUS. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20170302 - 20070314 - 19970310 - 20240228 - 20040318 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070313 - 19910220 - 20070318 - 20170301 - 19970308 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 19 - 23 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 21 - 27 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$