620 FXUS06 KWBC 091902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu April 09 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 19 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts are in good agreement regarding the mean 500-hPa height circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period. All ensemble models and the manual blend predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the North Pacific, the Aleutians, and Mainland Alaska. Downstream, a weak trough is forecast over western Canada and into the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Tools are more progressive with this troughing feature today relative to yesterday. Across the eastern contiguous CONUS positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored along with associated mid-level ridging. In Hawaii, tools have trended towards positive 500-hPa heights in recent model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians under the predicted persistent ridge. Below normal temperatures are favored for most of central and eastern Alaska today with a more northerly mid-level flow component over the region relative to yesterday. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ensemble model temperature forecasts. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures exceed 80 percent over large portions of the eastern CONUS beneath strong mid-level ridging. Record breaking temperatures are possible across the region during the period. Probabilities of above normal temperatures for the western CONUS are moderated, due to the potential intrusion of a mid-level trough. Near to below normal temperatures are even favored for the Northwest and north-central CONUS, consistent with calibrated model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the Mainland Alaska with enhanced westerly flow into the state. However, near to below normal is favored for Southeast Alaska and the southern coast of the Mainland, closer to the mid-level ridge. Forecast guidance is more progressive with the mid-level trough across the western CONUS today. This brings the trough axis inland relative to yesterday leading to a drier forecast across the immediate West Coast. Near to a slight tilt towards above normal precipitation is favored in the region. In the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and into the Great Lakes, return flow around a strong mid-level and surface high brings increased chances for precipitation to the region. Conversely, from the Four Corners into the Northern Plains, near to below normal precipitation is favored displaced from the precipitation associated with the trough and return flow across the central CONUS. In the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, below normal precipitation is favored squarely beneath the mid-level ridge and surface high pressure, limiting precipitation chances. Above normal precipitation is likely for much of Hawaii, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out 5, due to good agreement among the forecast guidance, offset by increased uncertainty over the western CONUS related to the mid-level trough in the region. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23 2026 The week-2 500-hPa height pattern is consistent with the 6-10 day period and yesterday. A strong positive anomaly center remains forecast south of Alaska with positive anomalies favored into southern Mainland Alaska. Just inland of the West Coast of the CONUS a weak trough is forecast but the models have diverged somewhat related to the strength of this feature, the GEFS has trended stronger while the ECENS is a bit weaker with negative anomalies confined to Canada. Along and east of the Rockies, excluding the Northern Plains where near-normal heights are most likely, positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored. Most tools forecast the strongest anomalies shifted a bit south relative to yesterday over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. In Hawaii, tools are generally mixed, with weak anomalies forecast. Below normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska, excluding the Aleutian Islands, consistent with the calibrated forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the CONUS in the 8-14 day period, under a broad ridge. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the West Coast, Northern Rockies, north-central CONUS and northern Maine, consistent with dynamical model guidance. Statistical guidance favors cool conditions over the West Coast, however, the weak trough and surface boundary conditions lend towards warmer conditions. A greater than 80% chance of above normal temperatures are favored over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model temperature tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Aleutians and most of Mainland Alaska, excluding the south coast, consistent with the statistical forecast guidance and with the calibrated model precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. Near to above normal precipitation is favored across most of the western CONUS along a predicted trough and consistent with most precipitation tools. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are enhanced for the Southern Plains into the Central and Northern Plains, the Middle and Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and the Great Lakes, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and statistical guidance. Below normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Southeast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and a strong signal in the analog guidance based on the 500-hPa height blend. Near-normal precipitation is favored across the Four Corners, Central Rockies, and into the Northern Plains. Low climatologies and being displaced from the main forcing for precipitation reduce chances for above normal in this region. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out 5, due to good agreement among the forecast guidance, offset by increased uncertainty over the western CONUS related to the mid-level trough in the region. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20030331 - 20190330 - 20130421 - 20200320 - 20150402 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20130420 - 20030331 - 20210330 - 20200319 - 20040319 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 15 - 19 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 17 - 23 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$