666 FXUS06 KWBC 061936 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon April 06 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 16 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period, with relatively small differences in the strength and location of anomalies and the underlying variations in the pattern through the period. The manual height blend of 500-hPa height forecasts is based on 0Z ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. All ensemble models and the manual blend predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the North Pacific, the Aleutians and southwestern Mainland Alaska. The manual blend and ECMWF ensemble mean predict greater positive 500-hPa height anomalies across Mainland and Southeast Alaska, compared to the GEFS ensemble mean forecast. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Pacific coast of the contiguous United States (CONUS) at the start of period quickly deamplify in all ensemble models. A series of shortwave troughs impact the Pacific coast through the period in ensemble mean solutions. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies and a ridge persist over the most of the central and eastern CONUS in all model solutions with some deamplification and eastward progression during the first half of the period. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, under the predicted persistent ridge. Near to below normal temperatures are forecast for the south coast of Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, consistent with an automated blend of forecast tools. Near normal temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, representing uncertainty due to inconsistent forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are slightly favored over most of the West, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ensemble model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are likely over most of the central and eastern CONUS during the period, under a persistent ridge, while near normal temperatures are favored along the Canadian border of the central CONUS, consistent with calibrated ECMWF model temperature forecasts. Probabilities exceed 80 percent probability over a large area of the eastern CONUS from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of Hawaii and more likely for southeastern Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal precipitation is favored across most of Mainland Alaska excluding the south coast, consistent with calibrated model precipitation forecasts. Below normal precipitation is favored for Southeast Alaska, consistent with calibrated ECMWF precipitation. With a series of troughs predicted over the Pacific coast of the CONUS, above normal precipitation is favored across the western CONUS, consistent with most model tools. Above normal precipitation is favored from the Southern Plains northeastward into the Central and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the western Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, and interior Northeast, with enhanced moisture flow into this region around surface high pressure to the east. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Above normal precipitation is very likely for Hawaii, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to general agreement among ensemble means on the predicted amplified 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 20 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models predict a similar pattern to the 6-10 day forecasts, with some evolution of the predicted mid-level circulation pattern. A ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist over the North Pacific to the southwest of Mainland Alaska in all ensemble means, with some deamplification relative to the 6-10 day period forecasts. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies extend across Mainland and Southeast Alaska in the ECMWF ensemble mean and the manual blend. Downstream a weak trough is predicted slightly to the west of the Pacific coast of the CONUS in all ensemble mean forecasts, with weak 500-hPa height anomalies over the West. A broad ridge and expansive positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the central and eastern CONUS in all ensemble means, with the Canadian ensemble mean forecasting greater and more expansive positive 500-hPa height anomalies than the ECMWF and GEFS models. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies persist to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands in ensemble mean forecasts. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored over the Aleutians, under the predicted ridge, and for the northwestern and northern Mainland, under weakening positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and northern areas of Southeast Alaska, consistent with bias-corrected model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the CONUS in the 8-14 day period, under a broad ridge in dynamical model forecasts. Above normal temperatures are only slightly favored for the northwestern CONUS, where dynamical model temperature forecasts are less consistent. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the northern central CONUS and northern Maine, consistent with calibrated ECMWF temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model temperature tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored across most of Mainland Alaska, excluding the south coast, consistent with calibrated model precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. Above normal precipitation is favored across most of the western CONUS, excluding a small area of the Desert Southwest, ahead of a predicted trough and consistent with most precipitation tools. Enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast from the Southern Plains northeastward across most of the Central and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region and the interior Northeast, with enhanced moisture flow into these regions. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Southeast Atlantic coast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by some deamplification of the mid-level height pattern and uncertainty among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20020413 - 20130420 - 20210330 - 20200322 - 20210322 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070316 - 20110413 - 20040318 - 20020413 - 20210330 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 12 - 16 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 14 - 20 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$