442 FXUS06 KWBC 252006 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Sun January 25 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 04, 2026 The GEFS and ECENS indicate the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO) peaks in the next couple of days but this highly -AO is forecast to persist through early February. The positive 500-hPa height anomalies at the higher latitudes of North America favors another Arctic high shifting south from Canada into the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) by the end of January. For the past few days, model solutions depict that the most anomalous cold becomes focused across Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast by the end of January. Below-normal temperature probabilities exceed 80 percent from the Mid-Atlantic south to the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida where the ECENS have 5-day temperatures averaging more than 10 degrees F below normal. In addition, there is an increased chance of near record or record lows for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on January 31 and February 1. Anomalous snow cover expected across portions of the eastern CONUS at the end of January also supports the large below-normal temperature probabilities. Enhanced below-normal temperature probabilities extend west to the Southern Great Plains and north to southern New England with the high amplitude 500-hPa trough persisting. The highest uncertainty in the 6-10 day temperature outlook exists across the Upper Mississippi Valley as temperatures are forecast to vary from below (day 6) to above (by day 8 or 9). Therefore, near normal temperatures or a slight leans towards above are forecast for much of this region. The broad and strong 500-hPa ridge over the western CONUS favors above normal temperatures across this region along the Northern to Central Great Plains. A majority of the lower 48 states are likely to have a dry end to January and start to February due to the amplified 500-hPa ridge over the West and large area of surface high pressure centered across the Mississippi Valley during this 5-day period. Based on a skill weighted consolidation of the GEFS and ECENS reforecasts, below-normal precipitation probabilities are largest (50 to 70 percent) across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, Great Basin, Southwest, and southern California. Northern stream shortwave troughs slightly tilt the outlook towards the wetter side for parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and North Dakota, while the elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities across the Rio Grande Valley to central Texas are related to a southern stream shortwave trough. Enhanced onshore flow favors above-normal precipitation for northwestern Oregon and parts of Washington. The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE agree on a deep trough over the Aleutians with the high latitude ridge over western North America. The longwave pattern would lead to enhanced southwesterly flow which favors above-normal temperatures and precipitation for southeastern Alaska. Predicted offshore flow favors below-normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska and also elevates below-normal temperature probabilities for parts of the North Slope. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, large above-normal temperature probabilities are forecast for Hawaii. Near normal precipitation is forecast across the Big Island, while the 6-10 day outlook leans on the wetter side for the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Much above average, 5 out of 5, due to excellent model agreement and consistency. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 08 2026 Multi-model ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement with the negative phase of the AO persisting into early February. The high latitude blocking with a continued -AO is consistent with the Madden-Julian Oscillation shifting eastward over the Pacific. The -AO with continued Arctic highs shifting south from Canada favor below-normal temperatures for much of the eastern CONUS. Given the good model agreement and consistency, below-normal temperature probabilities exceed 60 percent from the Mid-Atlantic south to Florida. MJO temperature composites were considered in hedging on the colder side of model guidance across the Midwest. Also, the amplified 500-hPa ridge, initially over the Rockies, is forecast to retrograde westward closer to the West Coast and build north to Alaska. This retrogression of the 500-hPa ridge could eventually lead to Arctic air and anomalous cold returning to the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Great Plains by the end of week-2, after a brief thaw expected at the beginning of February. However, above-normal temperatures are most likely across these areas through at least day 11 (Feb 5) which results in the enhanced above-normal temperature probabilities for the north-central CONUS. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies, associated with the amplified ridge aloft, favor above-normal temperatures across the western third of the CONUS. A lack of snow cover across the Great Basin further increases the above probabilities for this region. Expansive Arctic high pressure across the eastern CONUS coupled with the amplified 500-hPa ridge upstream favors a dry pattern for much of the lower 48 states during early February. The largest below-normal precipitation probabilities (50-60 percent) are forecast from St Louis to Nashville (well away from any East Coast storminess) and the interior West (underneath the strong mid-level ridge aloft). Although below-normal precipitation is favored along the East Coast, probabilities were reduced to only 33-40 percent from the Mid-Atlantic north to New England as recent ECENS and GEFS ensemble members have depicted low pressure development near the East Coast. However, the analog tool from the manual 500-hPa height blend has a strong dry signal even for the East Coast. One or more northern (southern) stream shortwave troughs resulted in elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for parts of Minnesota and North Dakota (Rio Grande Valley and Southwest). The deep 500-hPa trough over the Aleutians and northern Pacific is forecast to result in anomalous southwesterly flow with an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and precipitation for the southern two-thirds of Alaska. As the western North American ridge retrogrades westward, a drying trend is expected for southeastern Alaska later in week-2. Similar to the 6-10 day period, predicted northeasterly surface flow tilts the 8-14 day outlook towards the colder side for parts of the North Slope. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies also support above-normal temperatures, especially across the northwestern islands. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to continued good model agreement but some uncertainty in a retrograding pattern especially later in week-2. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140130 - 20230129 - 20150105 - 20170202 - 19910125 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140130 - 20150106 - 19890207 - 19940202 - 19990105 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 31 - Feb 04, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA A A IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 02 - 08 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$