734 FXUS06 KWBC 071906 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu May 07 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 17 2026 Today's numerical models depict a complex, transitional 500-hPa flow pattern across much of North America and surrounding regions. The period begins with an anomalous trough over southwestern Alaska. This trough is forecast to become negatively tilted as it pivots toward Southeast Alaska. Downstream ridging across the West is forecast to push east toward the Plains. Heights are generally forecast to fall across the West Coast in its wake. Troughing over the Northeast is expected to weaken but remnant cyclonic flow is forecast to persist throughout the period. Near normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii with a trough forecast to its northeast and a ridge predicted to its northwest. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS as expansive ridging pushes eastward. Confidence is very high (greater than 80 percent chance) for unseasonably warm temperatures across parts of the Great Basin and Central Rockies, where positive height anomalies are forecast to be at its maximum. A weak area of favored below normal temperatures is indicated across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Chances of below normal temperatures are weaker across the Northeast relative to yesterday as the magnitude of the associated trough diminishes. However, the slight tilt toward below normal temperatures is expanded southward across much of the Mid-Atlantic, consistent with teleconnections from downstream ridging predicted over the North Atlantic. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for most of Alaska, associated with anomalous troughing centered over the southwestern Mainland. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, due mostly to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. An active pattern is favored for most of Alaska as a negatively tilted trough establishes itself across the state. Confidence is high (greater than 50 percent chance) of above normal precipitation across much of southeastern Alaska, ahead of the predicted mean trough axis. Conversely, below normal precipitation is more likely from the Northern High Plains to the Pacific Northwest, due to expansive ridging. Below normal precipitation is also favored for the Southern Appalachians and surrounding areas due to predicted surface high pressure. Above normal precipitation is favored around the periphery of this surface high, across the Southern Plains and the Florida Peninsula. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, consistent with consolidated skill-weighted precipitation amounts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair model agreement on a complex, transitional pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 15 - 21 2026 During the week-2 period, the expansive ridge over the interior West is expected to progress eastward to the Plains, Great Lakes, and Mississippi Valley. Weak troughing over the Northeast is forecast to slowly dissipate as it moves offshore and the expansive ridge over the central CONUS advances east. Conversely, as this ridge moves away from the western CONUS, a trough is favored to develop over the West Coast. Farther to the north, a negatively tilted trough predicted across Alaska is forecast to persist well into week-2, with remnant cyclonic flow lingering over the western Mainland and eastern Bering sea throughout the period. Near normal heights are forecast across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are likely to dominate most of the CONUS as an expansive ridge progresses eastward. Confidence is very high (greater than 70 percent chance) for unseasonable warmth across parts of the Central and Northern Plains, near the center of the predicted mean ridge axis. Near normal temperatures are favored for the Northeast and coastal Mid-Atlantic, as troughing early in the period slowly dissipates. Near normal temperatures are also favored for the Pacific Northwest, as early ridging gives way to height falls later in the period. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for Alaska, associated with persistent troughing and near to below normal mid-level heights. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, due mostly to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. An active pattern is favored across much of Alaska, as a trough over western parts of the Mainland and the eastern Bering Sea is expected to linger throughout the period. Conversely, below normal precipitation is more likely across the Mid-Atlantic and surrounding regions due to predicted surface high pressure. Above normal precipitation is favored across the Southern Plains and parts of the Florida Peninsula on the southern periphery of this surface high. This set-up favors enhanced return flow moisture from the Gulf across the Southern Plains, where chances of above normal precipitation generally exceed 40 percent. Above normal precipitation is also favored along much of the West Coast, as a trough develops over the region during the middle and latter part of the period. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, consistent with consolidated skill-weighted precipitation amounts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to a predicted transitional pattern and larger than normal uncertainty regarding the precipitation outlook. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20200422 - 20190507 - 19950521 - 20200417 - 20210421 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20190508 - 20080519 - 20200417 - 20210510 - 19950517 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 13 - 17 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 15 - 21 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$