799 FXUS06 KWBC 132002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Fri February 13 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 23 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in very good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model more heavily due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill. The manual blend indicates an amplified wavetrain, featuring a strong mid-level ridge from the east-central Pacific across the Aleutians, Bering Sea, and western Mainland Alaska; a deep anomalous trough over much of western North America, and a strong anomalous ridge over eastern North America. The various ensemble means show good continuity with their respective previous solutions and the big picture overall. The Hawaiian Islands are expected to be near the southern margin of the strong east-central Pacific ridge, with forecasted height departures near zero. In addition, a mid-level trough is forecast west-northwest of the island chain. The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors near- to below-normal temperatures over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and parts of North Dakota, which is generally consistent with the majority of temperature forecast tools. Conversely, probabilities for above-normal temperatures are increased from the eastern Four Corners region and Wyoming eastward across the central CONUS to the Atlantic coast. Probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures exceed 80 percent from eastern Texas to parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The western portion of this widespread area of favored anomalous warmth lies ahead (east) of the western trough axis, with the remaining area (Central and Eastern CONUS) related to a forecast mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies. The increased probabilities for colder-than-normal temperatures includes most of Alaska, associated with the broad anomalous trough predicted over much of western North America, an upstream ridge axis, and surface easterly flow. Maximum probabilities favoring below-normal temperatures exceeds 80 percent for Southeast Alaska. Above-normal temperatures are favored only over the Aleutians (associated with mid-level ridging and positive height anomalies). For Hawaii, above-average sea-surface temperatures and near-average 500-hPa heights support above-normal temperatures across the island chain. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation for most of the western and northern CONUS. The greatest chances exceed 50 percent over portions of northern California, the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin. This is consistent with the mid-level trough predicted over the region and is also supported by most of the precipitation tools. Below-normal precipitation chances are increased over parts of Florida and Maine, under mid-level ridging and positive height anomalies. Over the Alaska domain, northerly anomalous flow favors a tilt towards below-normal precipitation over southern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, while drier-than-normal conditions are slightly favored over the Alaska Peninsula and much of the Aleutians closer to the anomalous ridge center. The automated precipitation tools favor wetter-than-normal conditions across the Hawaiian Islands during the 6-10 day period. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5), based on very good agreement among the 500-hPa height models and surface temperature tools, slightly offset by some differences in the precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 27 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 610 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. Mid-level ridging predicted over the east-central Pacific and much of Alaska during today's 6-10 period is forecast to shift westward towards the north-central Pacific, with the greatest positive height anomalies exceeding 300 meters in the vicinity of the southwestern Bering Sea and western Aleutians. An anomalous mid-level trough and negative height anomalies are predicted over most of western North America. Farther downstream, an anomalous mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies are predicted over eastern North America. This height anomaly pattern is a good example of a strong negative Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern. Near to below-normal heights are forecast over Hawaii underneath troughing. The 8-14 day temperature outlook is very similar to the earlier 6-10 day temperature outlook. Near- to below-normal temperatures are favored for much of the West, with a weak eastward extension over portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Above-normal temperatures are favored from the eastern Four Corners region and Wyoming eastward across most of the Central and Eastern CONUS, with a maximum 70-80 percent chance of anomalous warmth over portions of eastern Texas and Louisiana. Near-normal temperatures are favored over the Northeast, in closer proximity to a mid-level trough over the Canadian Maritimes. The week-2 temperature outlook is well supported by many of the temperature tools. In Alaska, below-normal temperatures are favored over nearly all of the state, with the exception of near to above-normal temperatures over the central and western Aleutians. The ERF-CON tool continues to support above-normal temperatures across Hawaii. The 8-14 day precipitation outlook depicts increased chances of above-normal amounts for much of the area west of the Continental Divide, warranted by the raw, reforecast and automated precipitation tools. East of the Divide, above-normal precipitation is favored over most of the Central and Eastern CONUS. This is related to one or more Colorado Lows that are forecast to travel northeastward across the Great Lakes region during week-2. Clockwise flow around a surface high pressure center off the Southeast coast is expected to steer adequate moisture into the Central and Eastern CONUS from the Gulf. Below-normal precipitation amounts are favored for parts of the southwestern CONUS, consistent with most of the precipitation forecast tools. In Alaska, as the mean ridge axis continues to shift westward over the Bering Sea, the westerly expansion of northerly anomalous 500-hPa flow and easterly surface flow leads to increased chances of near- to below-normal precipitation across the State. For Hawaii, wetter-than-normal conditions continue to be favored over the Hawaiian islands. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5), based on very good agreement among the 500-hPa height models and surface temperature tools, offset by some differences in the precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090206 - 20060126 - 20210130 - 20130220 - 19990201 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090204 - 20210201 - 20070221 - 20060127 - 19920203 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 19 - 23 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 21 - 27 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$