556 FXUS06 KWBC 042001 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Wed March 04 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2026 At the start of the 6-10 day forecast period, ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across the eastern CONUS tied to positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation (+AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO). However, troughing is forecast to expand southward into the central and east-central CONUS as the period progresses, resulting in mid-level height falls and a subsequent pattern transition. As a result, below-normal 500-hPa heights are depicted in the 6-10 day manual height blend across the north-central CONUS, with positive height anomalies becoming more focused over the Southern Tier and the Eastern Seaboard. Upstream, mid-level ridges are forecast across the Eastern Pacific and over the Bering Sea, with troughing over the Central Pacific. This favors above-normal heights across much of the West Coast of the CONUS into the Southwest, along with the Aleutians and western Mainland Alaska. Below-normal heights are more likely across the remainder of Mainland and Southeast Alaska, although rising heights are forecast toward the end of the period over these areas. Near- to below-normal heights are forecast across Hawaii. Very warm temperatures are forecast across portions of the central and eastern CONUS at the beginning of the forecast period, with temperatures 20-30 deg F above-normal across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast (Mar 10-11). The National Blend of Models indicates daily record high temperatures across many areas of the eastern CONUS. However, tied to amplified troughing shifting southward into the central CONUS, a strong cold front is forecast to move through from west to east, bringing a large temperature drop and a return to relatively cooler weather. While a pattern transition appears likely, the large positive temperature anomalies at the start of the period favor increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the CONUS for the period as a whole. Elevated odds for near- to below-normal temperatures are indicated across the Northwest, extending through the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperature chances are increased across the Southwest underneath positive height anomalies. High probabilities for below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of Alaska tied to ridging over the Bering Sea and enhanced northerly mid-level flow over the state. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii consistent with the consolidation reforecast tool. Above-normal precipitation probabilities are increased over the eastern CONUS as a result of troughing and a potent cold front predicted to move across the region. The highest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) are favored across the Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, and Interior Northeast supported by the reforecast consolidation as well as the analogs. The uncalibrated 0z ECMWF and GEFS ensembles also show a very broad area of the East having period mean precipitation totals of over an inch, with upwards of 1.5 inches in some areas. Increased chances for above-normal precipitation also extend back through the north-central CONUS and Pacific Northwest tied to a strong mid-level height gradient and enhanced Pacific flow. Conversely, below-normal precipitation chances are increased across parts of the Southwest underneath the influence of ridging and consistent with reforecast and uncalibrated forecast tools. Near- to below-normal precipitation chances are increased across Alaska tied to surface high pressure and offshore flow. Above-normal precipitation is forecast over Hawaii due to troughing over the central Pacific and supported by strong signals in the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to very good model agreement regarding the progression of longwave features, offset by a predicted rapid temperature transition over the East. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2026 The 500-hPa pattern during week-2 is similar to that of the 6-10 day period, except with a gradual eastward shift of the longwave features. The 0z ECMWF and Canadian maintain a more amplified 500-hPa pattern throughout the period, while the mid-level flow pattern in the 0z GEFS becomes more zonal. The progression of a highly anomalous trough toward Hudson Bay (-150 meters in the week-2 manual height blend) favors a continued eastward displacement of positive 500-hPa anomalies. While above-normal heights are still forecast for the week-2 period as a whole along the East Coast and Southeast, the positive anomalies in the manual height blend are substantially less compared to the 6-10 day period, and negative anomalies now overspread much of the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast. The ECMWF and Canadian ensembles depict an amplified ridge building over the western CONUS leading to above-normal heights across much of the West into the Southern Plains, although the GEFS is comparatively flatter. Another ridge continues to be forecast across the Bering Sea, with associated above-normal heights across western Alaska. Troughing remains forecast near Hawaii, with near- to slightly below-normal heights favored over the northwestern Islands and closer to normal heights more likely south and east. During week-2, a large drop in temperatures is forecast across the central and eastern CONUS, with below-normal temperatures becoming more likely for the period as a whole across much of the Northern Tier and extending southward toward the Ohio Valley. A broad area of near-normal temperatures is favored from the Tennessee Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast. While the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles depict below-normal temperatures expanding into much of the East later in week-2, closer to normal temperatures in the GEFS tied to a less amplified trough result in some uncertainty. Above-normal temperature chances remain elevated across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, supported by the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools, and the analogs, which have trended warmer compared to yesterday. Ridging over the East Pacific and an inland extension of positive height anomalies support increased chances of above-normal temperatures over much of the West (excluding northern areas close to the Canadian Border) into the Southern Plains. Below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist across Alaska, although some moderation is possible, particularly over northern areas. Above-normal temperatures remain favored for Hawaii. While the highest chances for heavy precipitation over the East diminish early in week-2 tied to a departing frontal system, cyclonic flow and additional shortwave impulses throughout the period favor continued chances for above-normal precipitation. The enhanced probabilities extend back across the north-central CONUS and into the Pacific Northwest where Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values remain elevated. Enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation are favored across the Southwest into the Southern Plains given ridging near the region and troughing moving farther downstream over the East. Below-normal precipitation odds are slightly enhanced across southwestern Mainland Alaska tied to ridging over the Bering Sea. Near-normal precipitation is forecast across eastern Mainland Alaska, with above-normal precipitation more likely over Southeast Alaska tied to a potential surface low over the Gulf of Alaska and increased onshore flow. The GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools support enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation across Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to decent model agreement, but with differences in the amplification of the mid-level pattern across the CONUS. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070315 - 20220315 - 19910222 - 20080302 - 19970216 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070317 - 19910219 - 20170211 - 19900222 - 20070312 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 10 - 14 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 12 - 18 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$