907 FXUS06 KWBC 101911 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Tue March 10 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 20 2026 Today's 6-10 day multi-model ensembles are in excellent agreement on the highly amplified, mean mid-level flow features over the Pacific-North America domain. The features of this remarkably stable circulation pattern include an anomalous trough and negative height anomalies predicted over northern and eastern Canada, extending into most of Alaska and much of the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Pronounced mid-level ridges and positive height anomalies are indicated over the Bering Sea, from the eastern Pacific to the central CONUS, and over the west-central Atlantic. Multi-model ensemble spread is small over the CONUS, but moderate over the Central Pacific. 500-hPa heights are predicted to be near to slightly above-average over Hawaii, with mid-level low pressure forecast northwest of the island chain. Below-normal temperatures are favored over most of the eastern half of the CONUS, and over Alaska, as supported by the reforecast temperature tools and the forecasted 500-hPa circulation pattern. The GEFS and CMCE reforecast tools predict the most widespread anomalous cold and magnitude of the temperature anomalies, while the ECENS reforecast is much more limited with its predicted coverage and magnitude of anomalous cold. The bias-corrected and raw temperature tools from the three ensemble means are most consistent with the GEFS and CMCE reforecast tools, indicating widespread below-normal temperatures favored over the eastern half of the CONUS. The 6-10 day temperature analog from the official height blend doesn't buy into this extensive area of forecast below-normal temperatures; in fact, it forecasts near-normal temperatures over this same general area. Above-normal temperature chances are elevated across the West and much of the Great Plains region. A two-class change is favored in southern Florida, from anomalous warmth ahead of an approaching cold front, to anomalously cool conditions after the front's passage. Chances for above-normal temperatures are in excess of 90 percent over the Southwest including California. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also favored in Hawaii, in line with the consolidation tool. The precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation over the northern tier of the CONUS (including parts of the Pacific Northwest) and eastern CONUS. This pattern coincides with the approximate mean position of the polar jet and associated storm track. Above-normal precipitation is also favored over the eastern Mainland of Alaska, Southeast Alaska, and the Hawaiian Islands based on the reforecast precipitation maps. Below-normal precipitation chances are enhanced for most of the remainder of the CONUS (i.e., the vast majority) related to mid-level ridging aloft, and increased subsidence behind the cold front predicted near the East Coast. Below-normal precipitation chances are also enhanced over western Alaska, associated with drier, northerly anomalous flow. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, based on excellent agreement among the various height guidance and good agreement among the precipitation tools, offset by significant discrepancies among the temperature tools in the East. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 24 2026 Today's week-2 multi-model ensembles remain in good agreement on the mean mid-level flow features over the Pacific-North America domain, but uncertainty has increased over the domain as evidenced by the multi-model ensemble spread. A weakening, but still significant mid-level trough continues to be forecast over northern and eastern Canada, with a weakened southward extension into the eastern quarter of the CONUS. The three ensemble means are forecasting a slight rise in heights across the Mid-Atlantic, despite clear cyclonic curvature in the full height field. The western portion of the Canadian trough pivots southward across Alaska. Strong mid-level ridges are predicted over eastern Siberia/Bering Sea, the Central Atlantic, and from the Eastern Pacific to well into the eastern CONUS. Over the Hawaiian domain, 500-hPa heights are predicted to remain near to below-average during week-2. The week-2 temperature outlook favors warmer-than-normal temperatures over the western, central CONUS, and much of the Mississippi Valley. Maximum probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures exceed 90 percent over the vicinity of Arizona and western New Mexico. This prediction is well supported by the raw, bias-corrected, and reforecast-calibrated temperature forecasts. Anomalous warmth is also favored across the Hawaiian Islands. For much of the Great Lakes region and East coast, near to below-normal temperatures are favored in the proximity of the mid-level trough. Nearly all tools support below-normal temperatures across Alaska during week-2, due to a mid-level trough and negative height anomalies, and an amplified ridge upstream. The precipitation outlook favors increased chances of wetter-than-normal conditions along the U.S.-Canadian border from Washington state to Maine. This aligns approximately with the general storm track. Off the East Coast, a cold front is expected to hang back over the southern tip of Florida, accompanied by lingering shower activity before the front pushes off the coast. Above-normal precipitation chances are elevated over Southeast Alaska and portions of the eastern Mainland, in advance of a mid-level trough axis, though raw precipitation forecasts are indicating anomalous wetness over a much larger portion of the state. Wetter-than-normal conditions continue to be favored for the Hawaiian islands, in advance of a mid-level trough and associated surface low. Below-normal precipitation chances are enhanced over most of the southern three-quarters of the CONUS, well enough removed from the mean storm track, with the favored drier-than-normal conditions stretching coast-to-coast. Below-normal precipitation is also favored over southwestern Mainland Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above-average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, based on good agreement among the various height guidance, offset by some discrepancies in the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Anthony A Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20040305 - 19910220 - 20230218 - 19970228 - 20070321 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910220 - 20070320 - 20040305 - 20220318 - 19970217 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 16 - 20 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 18 - 24 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$