892 FXUS06 KWBC 242002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Sat January 24 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2026 Today's numerical models are in very good agreement in depicting highly amplified 500-hPa flow consistent with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the positive phase of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. Much above normal mid-level heights are forecast over the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with a pair of positive height anomaly maxima of over 180 meters forecast over northern Quebec and north of eastern Siberia. Across the mid-latitudes, much below normal heights are forecast to span across the entire North Atlantic from Europe to the eastern CONUS with negative 500-hPa anomalies overspreading the East Coast westward across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys and the entire Gulf Coast. Anomalous mid-level ridging of moderate amplitude is forecast across the western CONUS. Above normal mid-level heights are forecast for most of mainland and Southeast Alaska due to predicted ridging. Below normal heights are forecast for the Aleutians, the Alaska Peninsula, and extreme southwestern mainland Alaska, associated with anomalous troughing over the northeastern Pacific. Slightly above normal mid-level heights are forecast for Hawaii. The strongly negative AO/positive PNA pattern is supportive of widespread bitterly cold temperatures across much of the eastern United States. Below normal temperatures are likely for almost the entire eastern CONUS and most of the Southern Plains. Exceptionally high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is indicated for much of the northern Mid-Atlantic, with potential snow cover adding to the likelihood of bitterly cold air for much of this region. However, a slight tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for northern Maine, consistent with teleconnections from the positive height anomaly center predicted over northern Quebec. Conversely, anomalous ridging over western North America supports increased chances of above normal temperatures across the western CONUS and much of Alaska. However, below normal temperatures are more likely for parts of the Aleutians, near a predicted mid-level trough. Near normal temperatures are favored for much of northern and western mainland Alaska under mostly easterly low-level flow. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, largely driven by above normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific. As expansive Arctic surface high pressure dominates much of the eastern CONUS, below normal precipitation is favored across most areas from the Mississippi Valley and adjacent Central Plains eastward to the Appalachians and Northeast. Above normal precipitation is favored around the southern periphery of the associated mid-level trough, across much of the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and the Florida Peninsula. Below normal precipitation is more likely across much of the western CONUS due to predicted anomalous mid-level ridging. Above normal precipitation is more likely across much of eastern and southern Alaska and parts of the Pacific Northwest ahead of the predicted trough over the northeastern Pacific. Above normal precipitation is favored for the western and central Hawaiian Islands, near the southern periphery of a trough forecast over the Pacific. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for parts of the Big Island, farther away from this predicted trough. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Much Above average, 5 out of 5, due to good model agreement on a highly amplified negative AO/positive PNA pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2026 A strong negative AO/positive PNA pattern remains favored for week-2. Above normal 500-hPa heights are forecast to continue to dominate the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Positive height anomaly maxima of 150 meters and 120 meters are forecast near Davis Strait and north of eastern Siberia, respectively. Below normal mid-level heights are forecast to continue to dominate the East Coast westward to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Anomalous ridging is forecast over western North America. Anomalous troughing is forecast over the Aleutians with strong negative height anomalies of over 120 meters forecast well to their south over the northeastern Pacific. Generally near normal mid-level heights are forecast for Hawaii. An Arctic air mass is forecast to continue to dominate the eastern CONUS with below normal temperatures favored from the Eastern Seaboard to the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent Southern Plains. High confidence (greater than 70 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is posted for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states and southern portions of the Northeast, with the potential for residual snow cover adding to the chances of colder than normal conditions. High confidence (greater than 70 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is also indicated for parts of the Florida Peninsula, consistent with the anticipated positive PNA pattern. Persistent anomalous ridging across western North America favors above normal temperatures for the western CONUS into the Northern Plains as well as most of Alaska. High confidence (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures is forecast from the West Coast eastward to the Great Basin. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, largely driven by above normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific. Expansive Arctic surface high pressure is forecast to persist well into week-2 across most of the eastern United States. As a result, below normal precipitation is favored for most areas from the East Coast westward to the Mississippi Valley and adjacent Plains. The highest confidence (greater than 50 percent chance) of drier than normal conditions is forecast near the intersection of the Middle and Lower Mississippi and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, near the center of predicted mean surface high pressure. Above normal precipitation is favored for parts of the southern Florida Peninsula and southern Texas, near the periphery of the predicted trough over eastern North America. Increased chances of below normal precipitation are posted for most of the West, due to predicted anomalous mid-level ridging. This highest confidence of below normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated for the Snake River Valley and adjacent areas of the northern Great Basin, near the predicted location of the mean ridge axis. Conversely, above normal precipitation is favored for much of southern and eastern Alaska ahead of a trough predicted over the northeastern Pacific. Teleconnections from the positive height anomaly center of the western North American ridge and from the negative height anomaly center over the northeastern Pacific, both support an active pattern for southeastern Alaska. Therefore probabilities of above normal precipitation are greater than 50 percent across Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern mainland. Above normal precipitation is favored for Kauai and Niihau islands of Hawaii, near the southern edge of an expansive trough over the Pacific. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for most of the Big Island, farther away from this trough. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to a predicted continued amplified negative AO/positive PNA pattern. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140130 - 20230128 - 19910125 - 20170202 - 20150105 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19940202 - 20150103 - 19990105 - 20140130 - 20150108 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 30 - Feb 03, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 01 - 07 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$