385 FXUS06 KWBC 081902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed April 08 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts are in good agreement regarding the mean 500-hPa height circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period. All ensemble models and the manual blend predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the North Pacific, the Aleutians, and Mainland Alaska. Downstream, a weak trough is forecast over Southeast Alaska and along the West Coast. Tools have slightly amplified this feature today relative to yesterday. Across the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored along with associated mid-level ridging. In Hawaii, tools have trended towards positive 500-hPa heights in recent model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and western Mainland Alaska under the predicted persistent ridge. Over the CONUS, above normal temperatures are favored for most of the country, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ensemble model temperature forecasts. Probabilities of above normal temperatures for the western CONUS are moderated, due to the potential intrusion of a mid-level trough. Above normal temperatures are likely over most of the eastern CONUS during the period, under a persistent ridge. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent over large portions of the eastern CONUS. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for the north-central CONUS, consistent with calibrated model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Near normal precipitation is favored for Southeast Alaska, the southern coastal regions of the Mainland, and Alaska Peninsula. Elsewhere, above normal precipitation is favored across much of the remainder of Mainland Alaska. With a trough progressing into the Pacific coast of the CONUS later in the period, above normal precipitation is favored across the West Coast and into parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Near normal precipitation is favored from Arizona, to the Central Rockies, and into the northern Plains in between systems. Above normal precipitation is favored from the Southern Plains northeastward into the Central and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the western Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, and the Northeast, with enhanced moisture flow into these regions around surface high pressure to the east. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast Atlantic coast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and statistical guidance. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for Hawaii, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out 5, due to good agreement among the forecast guidance, offset by increased uncertainty over the western CONUS related to the mid-level trough in the region. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2026 The week-2 500-hPa height pattern is consistent with the 6-10 day period and yesterday. A strong positive anomaly center remains forecast south of the Aleutians with positive anomalies favored into southern Mainland Alaska. Along the West Coast of the CONUS a weak trough is forecast but the feature has deepened relative to prior forecasts. Along and east of the Rockies, positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored. Most tools forecast the strongest anomalies over the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes. In Hawaii, tools are generally mixed, with weak anomalies forecast. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored over the Aleutians and for parts of western Mainland Alaska, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for parts of Southeast Alaska, consistent with an automated blend of temperature forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the CONUS in the 8-14 day period, under a broad ridge in dynamical model forecasts. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the West Coast, Northern Rockies, north-central CONUS and northern Maine, consistent with dynamical model guidance. Statistical guidance favors cool conditions over the West Coast, however, the weak trough and surface boundary lend towards warmer conditions. A greater than 70% chance of above normal temperatures are favored over parts of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and Southeast. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model temperature tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Aleutians and most of Mainland Alaska, excluding the south coast, consistent with the statistical forecast guidance and somewhat with the calibrated model precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. Above normal precipitation is favored across most of the western CONUS, excluding parts of the Four Corners region and into the Central Plains, ahead of a predicted trough and consistent with most precipitation tools. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are enhanced for the Southern Plains, with southerly moisture flow into this region. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the Central and Northern Plains, the Middle and Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and the Great Lakes, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and statistical guidance. Near to below normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Southeast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and a strong signal in the analog guidance based on the 500-hPa height blend. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out 5, due to good agreement among the forecast guidance, offset by increased uncertainty over the western CONUS related to the mid-level trough in the region. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20130420 - 20190330 - 20030331 - 20200320 - 20210330 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20130420 - 20040318 - 20210330 - 20200320 - 20030331 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 14 - 18 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 16 - 22 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$