506 FXUS06 KWBC 152001 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Sun February 15 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period. The manual height blend indicates an amplified wavetrain, featuring a strong mid-level ridge from the east-central Pacific across the Aleutians, Bering Sea, and western Mainland Alaska; a deep anomalous trough over much of western North America and northeastern Pacific, with negative anomalies exceeding 210 meters off the Pacific Northwest coast, an anomalous ridge over the southern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and troughing off the east coast of North America. Model guidance has amplified the trough along the West Coast relative to yesterday and retrograded the mid-level trough near the East Coast. The Hawaiian Islands are expected to be near the southern margin of the strong east-central Pacific ridge, with forecasted height departures near zero. In addition, a mid-level trough is forecast west-northwest of the island chain. The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors near to below normal temperatures along much of the West Coast and Northern Rockies and Northern Plains consistent with the majority of temperature forecast tools. Conversely, probabilities for above normal temperatures are increased from the Four Corners region and Great Basin eastward across the central CONUS to the Appalachians. The western portion of this widespread area of favored anomalous warmth lies ahead (east) of the western trough axis. The remaining areas (Central and Eastern CONUS) where increased chances of above normal temperatures are indicated are related to a forecast mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies. Along most of the East Coast, near to below normal temperatures are favored with a stronger mid-level trough south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. Increased probabilities for colder-than-normal temperatures includes most of Alaska, associated with the broad anomalous trough predicted over much of western North America, an upstream ridge axis, and surface easterly flow. Maximum probabilities favoring below normal temperatures exceeds 90 percent for Southeast Alaska. Above normal temperatures are favored only over the Aleutians (associated with mid-level ridging and positive height anomalies). For Hawaii, above-average sea-surface temperatures and near-average 500-hPa heights support above normal temperatures across the island chain. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation for most of the western and north-central CONUS. The greatest chances exceed 60 percent over portions of northern California and southwestern Oregon. This is consistent with the mid-level trough predicted over the region and is also supported by most of the precipitation tools. Below normal precipitation is favored across the Southwest and Four Corners and into the southern and central Plains with the bulk of precipitation confined north of the region. Weak return flow off the Gulf of America and additional Pacific moisture could bring one or more frontal systems through central and eastern CONUS as a forcing mechanism, but guidance has trended drier over the past 24 hours. Consistent with statistical guidance, near normal is favored for most of the eastern U.S. Over Alaska, northerly anomalous flow favors a tilt towards below normal precipitation over southern Mainland Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are also slightly favored over the Alaska Peninsula and much of the Aleutians closer to the anomalous ridge center. Precipitation tools favor wetter-than-normal conditions across the Hawaiian Islands during the 6-10 day period. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average (3 out of 5), based on good agreement among the 500-hPa height models and surface temperature tools, offset by some differences in the precipitation guidance. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - MAR 01, 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period. Mid-level ridging predicted over the east-central Pacific and much of Alaska during today's 6-10 period is forecast to shift westward over the north-central Pacific, with the greatest positive height anomalies exceeding 300 meters in the vicinity of the southwestern Bering Sea and western Aleutians. An anomalous mid-level trough and negative height anomalies are predicted over most of western North America and northeastern Pacific. An anomalous mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies are predicted stretching from the Southwest and across much of eastern North America. Mid-level troughing remains favored south of the Maritimes but is much weaker relative to yesterday with anomalous only slightly below normal. Near to below normal heights are forecast over Hawaii with a mid-level ridge forecast north of the islands and an extension of negative 500-hPa height anomalies from an anomalous trough to the west. The 8-14 day temperature outlook is very similar to the earlier 6-10 day temperature outlook. Near normal temperatures are favored for much of the West Coast and the Northern Rockies. Above normal temperatures are favored from the Four Corners region and Great Basin eastward across most of the Central and Eastern CONUS excluding the Northeast and coastal Mid-Atlantic. A maximum of 70-80 percent chances for above normal temperatures are forecast over portions of the Southern Plains. Near normal temperatures are favored over the Northeast and coastal Mid-Atlantic, in closer proximity to a mid-level trough eastern Atlantic. The week-2 temperature outlook is well supported by many of the temperature tools. In Alaska, below normal temperatures are favored over nearly all of the state, with the exception of near to above normal temperatures over the central and western Aleutians. Temperature tools continue to support above normal temperatures across Hawaii. The 8-14 day precipitation outlook depicts increased chances of above normal precipitation for much of the western CONUS, excluding the Southwest. Dynamical and statistical precipitation guidance is strongly supportive of above normal precipitation to continue across much of the West with strong mid-level height anomalies centered just offshore the Pacific Northwest. Increased above normal precipitation chances extend across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region as the enhanced Pacific flow regime remains in place much of the week-2 period. There is generally more uncertainty across the southern CONUS. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Southwest and into the central and southern High Plains. However, near-normal precipitation is favored from eastern portions of the Central and Southern Plains to the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Northeast. Dynamical precipitation guidance is generally drier relative to yesterday, but reforecast guidance continues to forecast above normal precipitation, and statistical guidance continues to favor drier than normal conditions across the region. With mixed signals in the tools, have opted to favor near normal again during the week-2 period across much of the East. In Alaska, as the mean ridge axis continues to shift westward over the Bering Sea, the westerly expansion of northerly anomalous 500-hPa flow and easterly surface flow leads to increased chances of near to below normal precipitation across the State. For Hawaii, wetter-than-normal conditions continue to be favored. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average (3 out of 5), based on good agreement among the 500-hPa height models and surface temperature tools, offset by some differences in the precipitation guidance. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090206 - 20210130 - 20060126 - 20180301 - 20090214 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20210201 - 20090206 - 20210127 - 20090214 - 20060126 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 21 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 23 - Mar 01, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$