982 FXUS06 KWBC 251902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed March 25 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2026 The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE remain consistent with a pattern change over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) by the end of March. The unusually strong 500-hPa ridge is forecast to shift eastward and be replaced by an amplified mid-level trough from March 31 to April 4. The ECENS and CMCE are the most amplified with this trough and these model solutions were preferred given their good model continuity. At the beginning of April, colder temperatures are likely across the western CONUS as the amplified 500-hPa trough progresses inland and heights lower. Despite this predicted cooling trend, near normal temperatures are favored for most of California, Nevada, and western Arizona as day 6 is expected to be warmer-than-normal. The outlook leans on the colder side for much of the Pacific Northwest with above-normal temperatures becoming more likely for the Central to Southern Rockies. An expansive area with an increased chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast for most of the central and eastern CONUS due to positive 500-hPa height anomalies and southerly surface flow. Large above-normal temperature probabilities (greater than 70 percent) are forecast from the Southern Great Plains east to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where 5-day temperatures are forecast to average more than 10 degrees F above normal. Model guidance continues to favor a backdoor cold front across the Northeast with near to below-normal temperatures favored for New England. The longwave trough-ridge pattern from west-to-east leads to a large coverage with an increased chance of above-normal precipitation throughout the CONUS. The amplified 500-hPa trough favors above-normal precipitation from the West Coast to the Rockies with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across California and the Great Basin. The 6-10 day outlook leans on the wetter side as far south as southern California and the Four Corners region, but near normal precipitation is more likely in the climatologically dry areas of southwestern Arizona. Based on the analog tool derived from the manual 500-hPa height blend, the outlook hedged drier than the dynamical model output for the Desert Southwest, Rio Grande Valley, and the Southeast. For the third consecutive day, the ensemble means depict leeside cyclogenesis across the Central High Plains by day 8 (April 2). This surface low and trailing cold front are then forecast to progress eastward to the Mississippi Valley on day 10 (April 4). This results in the enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities across the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley. Along a predicted warm front and based on good model continuity, above-normal precipitation probabilities are greater than 50 percent for the Great Lakes. The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE maintain a weak 500-hPa trough over southeastern Alaska but positive 500-hPa height anomalies are becoming more prominent for the western two-thirds of the state heading into April. This predicted longwave pattern supports a lean towards below (above)-normal temperatures for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska. With an ill-defined surface pattern and lack of any model signal, near normal precipitation is favored for much of Alaska. Following the multiple Kona Lows that brought flooding rainfall to Hawaii, a transition back to prevailing trade winds is forecast by the beginning of April. However, elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities remain forecast throughout Hawaii. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, near normal or a slight lean towards above normal temperatures are forecast. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement and continuity on an amplified 500-hpa trough overspreading the western CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2026 The amplified 500-hPa trough over the western CONUS, early in week-2, is the primary influence on the temperature and precipitation outlooks. However, forecast confidence quickly decreases later in week-2 as the ECENS and GEFS diverge. The ECENS favors a persistence of this longwave 500-hPa trough across the West, while the GEFS depicts a building ridge along the northern half of the West Coast. Since the ECENS has support from the CMCE, these two model solutions were preferred. With the longwave trough progressing inland on days 8 and 9, there is likely to be a multi-day period of anomalous cold for at least the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain West. But the longevity of any anomalous cold is highly uncertain given the diverging model solutions later in week-2. For the 7-day period, near normal temperatures are the most likely category for a majority of the western CONUS with a slight lean towards warmer-than-normal across southern California and the Desert Southwest. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies coupled with southerly surface flow continue to support enhanced above-normal temperature probabilities for the Central to Southern Great Plains, Midwest, and much of the eastern CONUS. Above-normal temperature probabilities decrease south-to-north across the Northeast as a day or two of anomalous cold, related to a back door cold front, is expected early in week-2. Models have trended colder across the northern Great Plains as cold air advection may affect this region in the wake of a low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes. Therefore, near to below-normal temperatures are favored for most of this region. The week-2 outlook leans on the wetter side for a majority of the lower 48 states, roughly from the Rockies to the Appalachians. This is due to a longwave 500-hPa trough over the western CONUS and the likelihood that one or two low pressure systems track eastward from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. To the west of the predicted mid-level trough axis, below-normal precipitation is slightly favored for northern California and southwestern Oregon. Based on teleconnections upon the positive 500-hPa height anomaly center over southern New England, the outlook hedged drier than the dynamical model consensus for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast where near normal precipitation is forecast. Ensemble means differ on the longwave pattern over Alaska with the GEFS depicting an amplified 500-hPa trough over Mainland Alaska while the ECENS and CMCE favor more zonal flow. The uncalibrated model output supports an increased chance of above (below)-normal temperatures for northwestern (southeastern) Alaska. In addition, the outlook leans on the wetter side for the southern half of Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies also support above-normal temperatures. Above-normal precipitation remains favored with the largest probabilities forecast across the eastern Big Island. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to high predictability early in week-2 offset by diverging model solutions later in the period. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070313 - 20150401 - 20040319 - 19970310 - 20070318 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070314 - 20070308 - 20150401 - 20040319 - 19970309 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 31 - Apr 04, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 02 - 08 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE B A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$