655 FXUS06 KWBC 301902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2026 The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE remain consistent with a 500-hPa ridge over the north-central contiguous U.S. (CONUS) restrengthening from June 5 to 9. As this anomalous ridge builds again on June 8 and 9, 500-hPa heights are forecast to reach 582 dm as far north as the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes which are 120 meters above normal for early June. Multi-model ensemble mean solutions also depict a July-like ridge with 588 dm heights from Kansas City to St Louis. This anomalous 500-hPa ridge strongly favors above-normal temperatures across the Central to Northern Great Plains and Midwest. Due to positive 500-hPa height anomalies, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures extends west into the Rockies, Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest. Near to below-normal temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest and northern California as a 500-hPa trough shifts inland. The GEFS is the most amplified with a mid-level trough along the East Coast which keeps any anomalous warmth well to the west of the Appalachians. The preferred ECENS and analog tool result in the 6-10 day outlook leaning slightly towards above-normal temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 30-day precipitation has averaged 200 to 400 percent of normal across most of south-central Texas, the Gulf Coast, and Lower Mississippi Valley. This recent wetness led to soil moisture (SM) increasing to above the 90th percentile in many of these areas. A wet pattern and saturated soils are likely to persist through at least early June. There is a significant negative correlation between SM and temperature during June. Therefore, SM is expected to have a cooling effect on temperatures across the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, and Gulf Coast region. Enhanced cloudiness and precipitation are also expected for these same areas. The 6-10 day outlook favors near normal temperatures for much of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Texas with a slight lean towards below-normal temperatures across the Middle Rio Grande Valley. On days 6 and 7 (June 5 and 6), a cold front is likely to cross the east-central CONUS. Multi-model ensemble mean solutions generally agree that this front becomes stationary from the Southern Great Plains east to the Southern Mid-Atlantic, before retreating northward as a warm front. This predicted surface pattern coupled with return Gulf flow has led to model guidance trending wetter throughout the central and eastern CONUS the past few days. Above-normal precipitation is now favored for a majority of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The largest probabilities (40-50%) over the south-central CONUS align with where the front is most likely to become stationary and the ECENS has more than 1.5 inches of precipitation during this 5-day period. Typical for early June, little to no precipitation is forecast for the western third of the CONUS. However, the amplified trough shifting onshore into the Pacific Northwest supports elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for much of this region. The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in good agreement with positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the Aleutians and southwestern Alaska. This yields an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for those areas. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for southeastern Alaska, based on the reforecast tools. A deep 500-hPa trough, retrograding west near northern Alaska, favors below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for the North Slope. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii except the northwestern islands. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast throughout Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model consistency and improved agreement among the precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2026 A broad, anomalous 500-hPa ridge is forecast to cover much of the lower 48 states during early to mid-June. This ridge is forecast to peak in strength over the north-central CONUS early in week-2 and then there could be a pattern change underway by mid-June, as the anomalous ridge aloft shifts westward. The ECENS and CMCE agree on the amplifying 500-hPa ridge over the western CONUS later in week-2 which would be consistent with the longwave trough upstream over Alaska. The broad-scale ridging aloft with its associated positive 500-hPa anomalies favor above-normal temperatures for nearly all of the CONUS. A widespread area with a greater than 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast across the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern to Central Great Plains, Central Rockies, and parts of the Great Basin where multi-model ensemble means depict 7-day temperature anomalies of +5 to +15 degrees F. The 8-14 day temperature outlook leans warmer-than-normal along the East Coast, but forecast confidence is lower with a large ensemble spread on the amplitude of mid-level trough at the beginning of week-2. Although moist soil moisture is expected to continue providing a cooling effect from the Rio Grande Valley east to the Gulf Coast, 500-hPa height departures of +30 meters (substantial for June across the South) support elevated above-normal temperature probabilities for most areas. Based on the model consensus, near normal temperatures are most likely for parts of Texas. The precipitation outlook is more uncertain during week-2 as a summertime pattern with convective rainfall becomes established. The uncalibrated dynamical model output and the analog tool derived from the manual 500-hPa height blend was generally followed as guidance. Although the outlook leans slightly (33-40% chance) wet for the Southern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, the analog tool is much drier. The tools are in good agreement with the largest above-normal probabilities (> 40%) across New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley, due in part to the drier climatology. Mesoscale convective systems are typically most active along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge, which supports elevated above-normal probabilities across the Northern to Central Great Plains.. The uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS along with the analog tool support leaning on the drier side for parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. An amplified 500-hPa trough, at the beginning of week-2, favors above-normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest, while below-normal precipitation is more likely for the remainder of the western CONUS (outside of the climatologically dry areas of California and Desert Southwest). A closed 500-hPa low to the north of Alaska with a trough extending south to the Bering Sea supports an increased chance of above-normal precipitation statewide for Alaska. Based on a skill-weighted consensus between the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools, probabilities exceed 40 percent across southeastern Alaska. The wet pattern and amplified 500-hPa trough support near to below-normal temperatures for most of Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii except the northwestern islands. Above-normal precipitation remains favored through week-2. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement among the temperature tools offset by weak or conflicting signals among the precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20250525 - 19910603 - 19980521 - 20160612 - 20230527 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910601 - 20250524 - 20230530 - 19980509 - 20030515 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 05 - 09 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 07 - 13 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$