195 FXUS06 KWBC 271902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon April 27 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 07 2026 Today's numerical models depict a slow moving 500-hPa pattern punctuated by a strong anomalous blocking ridge extending from south of Greenland to southern areas of Baffin Island. This blocking ridge supports long-duration troughing over the northeastern CONUS. The main driver in the western portion of the forecast domain is an anomalous ridge centered offshore of Southeast Alaska. A weakening trough is forecast upstream of this ridge over the western Aleutians. A trough in the southern stream is forecast to push inland from the Pacific across the southwestern CONUS. Near normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. The predicted blocking pattern is expected to lock in an unseasonably cold weather regime for most of the eastern half of the CONUS. Confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) of below normal temperatures across the eastern Ohio Valley and parts of the lower Great Lakes. Above normal temperatures are more likely across the northwestern CONUS. Confidence is very high (greater than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the Pacific Northwest, in close proximity to a ridge predicted just offshore. Near to above normal temperatures are favored for most of Alaska, associated with anomalous ridging ahead of a mean trough predicted over the Bering Sea. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of Hawaii, due primarily to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. The prolonged troughing over the eastern CONUS supports above normal precipitation along its periphery. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent across much of Florida, where a frontal boundary and associated surface low pressure are likely to develop. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored across parts of the Tennessee Valley due to predicted transient surface high pressure behind the frontal boundary. Above normal precipitation probabilities are slightly enhanced across the Northeast and adjacent areas of the eastern Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, northern Mid Atlantic, and the central Appalachians, due to predicted surface low pressure and the potential development of a frontal boundary ahead of a reinforcing shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. Conversely, surface high pressure supports below normal precipitation across much of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains. Drier than normal conditions are also favored for parts of the northwestern CONUS, due to anomalous ridging forecast just offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Southern stream troughing forecast to push inland across the southwestern CONUS supports increased above normal precipitation chances from California to the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Alaska, associated with anomalous troughing predicted over the Bering Sea. However, near to below normal precipitation is more likely across Southeast Alaska, due to predicted mid-level ridging across eastern parts of the state. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with yesterday's outlook. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair model agreement on a slow-moving blocking pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 11 2026 During the week-2 period, the strong ridge over Baffin Island is predicted to remain in place. As a result, strong anomalous troughing is forecast to remain entrenched over the northeastern CONUS. The predicted ridge offshore of Southeast Alaska is forecast to build northward into the Mainland. The evolution of this ridge results in predicted above normal heights across most of Alaska. A weakening trough is forecast over the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, farther to the south, a shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the southwestern CONUS. Weak transient ridging is possible ahead of this shortwave feature, consistent with modest height rises across parts of the Southeast relative to yesterday. Near normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. A long duration unseasonably cold pattern is favored across most of the eastern and central CONUS. Confidence is high (greater than 50 percent chance) for below normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and adjacent areas of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley, where teleconnections from the mean trough position yield a strong cold signal. Southern Florida is the only region east of the Mississippi where above normal temperatures are favored. Above normal temperatures are more likely across the West due to strong ridging predicted over northwestern North America and a weaker southern stream ridge forecast over the Central and Southern Rockies. Confidence is high (greater than 50 percent chance) of above normal temperatures for much of the Pacific Northwest due to the proximity of the northern stream ridge. Near to above normal temperatures are favored for most of Alaska, associated with a ridge forecast over the Mainland. Above normal temperatures remain likely across Hawaii. Uncertainty is higher than normal across much of the country regarding the precipitation pattern during week-2. An anomalous trough is forecast to move inland from the California coast. Predicted surface low pressure ahead of it supports increased chances of above normal precipitation across much of California, the Great Basin, the Central and Southern Rockies, and adjacent areas of the Southwest and central High Plains, despite dry climatologies for some of these areas this time of year. Below normal precipitation is favored across parts of the Pacific Northwest, as anomalous ridging persists across northwestern North America. Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the Northeast and parts of the adjacent Mid-Atlantic due to predicted surface low pressure associated with a reinforcing shortwave trough. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Gulf Coast region and adjacent areas of the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains due to the potential for a brief period of enhanced Gulf moisture advection ahead of an advancing southern stream trough. Predicted surface high pressure is supportive of below normal precipitation across the Upper Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of western Alaska, associated with a weakening trough over the Bering Sea. Below normal precipitation is more likely across Southeast Alaska due to persistent ridging. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, underneath predicted cyclonic mid-level flow and consistent with consolidated precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to greater than normal uncertainty regarding the week-2 precipitation pattern. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20210412 - 20160511 - 20120407 - 19950425 - 20240502 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20010406 - 20100413 - 20190503 - 20120407 - 20160510 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 03 - 07 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 05 - 11 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$