603 FXUS06 KWBC 151902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon June 15 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 25 2026 At the outset of the 6-10 day period, an amplified trough is forecast to be lifting out across northeastern North America. In its wake, the 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles are in good agreement in depicting a more zonally oriented mid-level flow pattern across the CONUS. Toward the end of the period, models build more ridging over the western CONUS, and indicate renewed troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Today's manual 500-hPa height blend depicts near- to below-normal heights across the Upper Mississippi Valley extending eastward through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and northern Mid-Atlantic. Above-normal heights are indicated over the western half of the CONUS, and along the Southern Tier. While weakly above-normal heights are forecast for much of Alaska for the period as a whole, a trend toward more amplified troughing over the Aleutians and Bering Sea favors decreasing heights with time, particularly across southwestern Alaska. Subtropical ridging across the central Pacific results in near- to above-normal heights over Hawaii. Increased probabilities for below-normal temperatures are favored for much of the Northern and Central Plains, Midwest, and into the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic tied to periodic troughing and frontal activity bringing cooler Canadian air farther south than usual for this time of year. This is supported by reforecast and uncalibrated model guidance as well as the analogs. Conversely, above-normal temperatures are more likely across the western CONUS as ridging becomes more dominant. Above-normal temperature chances are also increased near the Gulf Coast and over the Southeast where mid-level heights are higher and there is less influence from the troughing to the north. Across Alaska, above-normal temperatures are generally favored across the Interior Mainland, along with eastern and Southeast Alaska due to positive mid-level height anomalies. However, as troughing builds closer to the state, increased onshore flow and subsequent cooling is anticipated later in the period, especially over southwestern and the far western Mainland of Alaska where near-normal temperatures are more likely. Above-normal temperatures are likely over Hawaii, supported by the reforecast consolidation and above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Central Pacific. Enhanced precipitation is forecast for much of the CONUS from the Rockies eastward tied to transient frontal activity leading to broadly enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation. Dynamical model guidance depicts the highest precipitation totals across the east-central Plains into the Tennessee Valley, where periods of heavy rain and potentially thunderstorms are more likely. Below normal precipitation probabilities are elevated west of the Rockies underneath increasing ridging and due to good support among the various forecast tools. The exception is over the climatologically dry areas of the Southwest, where near-normal precipitation is favored. A weak tilt toward enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities is depicted for much of Alaska tied to increased onshore southerly flow, especially later in the period. Near-to below-normal precipitation is forecast for Southeast Alaska, farthest downstream from the incoming troughing. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for much of Hawaii, except for the northwestern islands where near-normal is more likely. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement on the overall mid-level pattern over North America, offset by a more transient pattern emerging east of the Rockies. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29 2026 During week-2, dynamical models depict a fairly stable pattern across North America. Ridging remains most likely across the western CONUS, with intermittent shortwave troughing progressing across the Northern Tier east of the Rockies. The 0z ECMWF and Canadian ensembles are the most amplified with ridging over the West depicting an expansive area with daily +60 meter positive height anomalies. The AI ECMWF and GEFS ensembles depict a more robust trough across the Great Lakes, with the physics-based models not as amplified with this feature but still indicating a weakness in the overall height field across the East. The week-2 manual 500-hPa height blend generally depicts near-normal heights east of the Great Plains, and above-normal heights to the west, increasing in magnitude across the Great Basin and closer to the Pacific Coast. Troughing over the Bering Sea favors below-normal heights across the Aleutians. Weakly above-normal heights are forecast for the remainder of Alaska. Near-normal heights are forecast for Hawaii as ridging retrogrades and shortwave impulses may result in periodic height falls across the islands. The week-2 temperature forecast is very similar to that of the 6-10 day period. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are favored across the western third of the CONUS, extending across the Southern Tier and Gulf Coast, and into the Southeast. Persistent rounds of troughing into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast support maintaining elevated chances of below-normal temperatures over many of these areas. Uncalibrated tools support a farther southward expansion of the below-normal temperature probabilities, but the reforecast and analogs lean toward a warmer forecast. Near- to below-normal temperatures probabilities are enhanced across southwestern and south-central Alaska tied to increased troughing and more onshore flow. The GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools support higher probabilities for above-normal temperatures across the northern and eastern Mainland and into Southeast Alaska. Above-normal temperatures are forecast over Hawaii, due in part to warm SSTs over the Central Pacific. Troughing and transient frontal activity continue to support weakly enhanced odds for above-normal precipitation east of the Rockies, although uncertainty increases in terms of exact timing and magnitude of any specific impulses. Enhanced ridging favors elevated chances for near- to below-normal precipitation across parts of the West Coast into the Great Basin. Increased moisture from the Gulf of California may advect into the Desert Southwest leading to an increase in above-normal precipitation chances across the region, especially given the low precipitation climatology. Near- to above-normal precipitation is forecast across Alaska tied to enhanced onshore flow. Occasional shortwaves also favor increased odds for above-normal precipitation across Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to good model agreement regarding ridging and above-normal temperatures across the West, offset by decreasing signals east of the Rockies and a low confidence precipitation forecast. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20190611 - 20000626 - 20190617 - 20130602 - 20130608 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20190611 - 20130609 - 19890623 - 20010614 - 20130604 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 21 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 23 - 29 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN B N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$