038 FXUS06 KWBC 201902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 26 - 30 2026 Today's numerical models are in fair agreement with the 500-hPa flow pattern across North America and vicinity as the GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF and Canadian solutions. The period begins with a trough over southwestern Mainland Alaska. As time progresses, this trough is forecast to slowly meander near the South Coast. A trough in the southern stream is forecast over the western CONUS. This trough has trended much stronger today and evolves into a closed low during the early to middle part of the period before slowly weakening. A very strong ridge is forecast downstream, centered over Hudson Bay and northern Ontario, particularly in the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble solutions. The position of the ridge coupled with upstream cyclonic flow across the West is conducive to enhanced return flow from the Gulf across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Near normal mid-level heights and southeasterly low-level flow are forecast across Hawaii. The anomalous ridge over eastern Canada is supportive of above normal temperatures across much of the north-central and northeastern CONUS. Confidence is very high (greater than 80 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes, consistent with teleconnections from the ridge anomaly center. A weaker transient ridge is forecast across parts of the Southeast during the early and middle parts of the period, supporting elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures across this region. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for most of the West and into the Southern Plains, associated with a slowly moving southern stream trough or closed low. Persistent cyclonic flow leads to elevated chances of below normal temperatures across Alaska. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii, associated with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Above normal precipitation is likely across the Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, Southern Plains, and into the southern Mid-Atlantic, Great Plains, and Southern and Central Rockies, around the periphery of predicted surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. Confidence is highest (greater 50 percent chance) for above normal precipitation across much of the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, where enhanced moisture advection is most likely. Below normal precipitation is favored for much of the Great Lakes and Northeast, closer to the predicted ridge axis. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the West, as today's model solutions are much stronger with a trough across the region. An active pattern is favored for most of Alaska underneath predicted cyclonic flow. Confidence is highest (greater than 50 percent chance) for above normal precipitation across parts of the southeastern mainland, as predicted cyclonic flow promotes enhanced onshore flow. A weak tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with a skill weighted consolidation of calibrated precipitation amounts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair model agreement. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 03, 2026 During the week-2 period, strong anomalous ridging remains a dominant feature over Hudson Bay through the middle of the period. Thereafter, models are trending toward a retrogression of this ridge toward western Canada. Early ridging across the Southeast is forecast to break down but models disagree on how fast this weakening will occur. Mean cyclonic flow is forecast across much of western of North America. Troughing over southern Alaska is forecast to slowly retrograde toward southwestern parts of the state with time. Meanwhile, cyclonic flow is forecast near the West Coast through the middle of the period. Thereafter, heights are forecast to rise across the Pacific Northwest while toughing persists across the southwestern CONUS. Near normal heights continue to be forecast across Hawaii. The anomalous ridge over east-central Canada is supportive of above normal temperatures across much of the north-central CONUS. Confidence is highest (greater than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Red River Valley of the North, where positive height anomalies are largest. A weaker transient ridge is forecast across parts of the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS early in the period, supporting modestly elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures across much of this region. However, teleconnections from the ridge anomaly center over east-central Canada favor below normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, reducing above normal temperature probabilities across this region. The potential for cyclonic flow through the middle of the period across the West coupled with possible enhanced moisture advection over the Southern Plains, precluded favoring above normal temperatures across these regions. Persistent cyclonic flow leads to elevated chances of below normal temperatures across most of Alaska. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, associated with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, southern Mid Atlantic, and most of the Plains and Rockies, around the periphery of anomalous ridging over east-central Canada. Enhanced return flow moisture is forecast to persist into week-2 across the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains. Conversely, below normal precipitation is more likely across the Great Lakes and Northeast, where surface high pressure is predicted. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored from the Great Basin to parts of California, associated with a predicted trough or closed low. Near to above normal precipitation is favored for Alaska, underneath predicted mean cyclonic flow. A weak tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with a skill weighted consolidation of calibrated precipitation amounts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair model agreement. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20170430 - 20250515 - 19910528 - 20200523 - 20250430 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20250501 - 20120528 - 20250515 - 19910528 - 20170429 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 26 - 30 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 28 - Jun 03, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$