521 FXUS06 KWBC 021928 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu April 02 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12 2026 Today's numerical models depict a complex 500-hPa flow pattern across North America and vicinity. A pair of ridges are forecast at the start of the period over the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, respectively. A cutoff mid-level low is forecast near the coast of California. Expansive and strengthening ridging is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Below normal heights are forecast across much of Canada with a weak trough extending southward toward the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Weak troughing is forecast over Florida. As time progresses, the ridge over the eastern CONUS is expected to strengthen significantly. The positioning of this strengthening ridge supports a potentially prolonged period of return flow and an active pattern across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes. Upstream, the cut-off low forecast near California is forecast to slowly push eastward toward the southwest. Persistent cyclonic flow is forecast across Hawaii which is supportive of a prolonged active period for the Island Chain. Expansive ridging supports above normal temperatures for the majority of the CONUS. There is high confidence (greater than 60 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across much of the Ohio Valley as this ridge strengthens. Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures extend westward to the southwestern CONUS consistent with dynamical model guidance. However statistical guidance is much less supportive for warmth across the West, so probabilities of above normal temperatures are significantly reduced relative to yesterday. Below normal temperatures are favored for the northern High Plains near the southwestern extent of a trough forecast over Canada. A weak tilt toward below normal temperatures is indicated for northern Maine but with significantly less magnitude relative to yesterday as heights are generally forecast to rise through the period. A weak tilt toward below normal temperatures is indicated for the southern tip of Florida due to a predicted weak trough nearby. Above normal temperatures are favored for western and northern Alaska due to predicted above normal heights. Confidence is highest over northwestern parts of the state in close proximity to a predicted ridge over the Bering Strait. Above normal temperatures are likely for much of Hawaii driven largely by observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. However, probabilities of above normal temperatures are more muted across western portions of the state, closer to the center of a predicted mid-level trough. An active pattern is likely for most of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes, as a strengthening ridge to the east supports robust return flow moisture across these regions. A frontal boundary predicted from the Central Plains to the western Great Lakes will likely serve as an additional focusing mechanism for increased precipitation amounts. Due to this combination of factors, confidence is high (greater than 50 percent chance) for above normal precipitation from the Southern Plains to the Western Great Lakes, with probabilities exceeding 60 percent for the western Great Lakes and parts of the Rio Grande Valley. Conversely, the strengthening ridge and associated surface high pressure favor below normal precipitation for much of the Eastern Seaboard. Confidence is low across the West due to uncertainty surrounding the evolution of a cutoff low near southern California. Teleconnections from this cutoff feature are supportive of above normal precipitation across the southwestern CONUS however these teleconnections are fighting against a dry climatology this time of year. A very modest tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for southern California northeastward across the Great Basin near and ahead of this predicted cutoff. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the northern two-thirds of Alaska based primarily on analogs from the forecast mid-level pattern and teleconnections from predicted ridges over the western Aleutians and over the Gulf of Alaska. An active pattern is likely to continue for Hawaii and above normal precipitation is favored for the entire Island Chain. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16 2026 The week-2 period begins with strong ridging firmly in place across the East and a southern stream trough over the southwestern CONUS. A second, weaker trough is forecast over the northern Rockies. The combination of the ridging over the East and the cyclonic flow over the West is expected to promote an extended period of robust southerly low-level flow across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. A mean frontal boundary is forecast to persist from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. A complex pattern is forecast for Alaska with models having difficulty in resolving the placement of individual ridge axes. However, all models agree in forecasting above normal heights across western parts of the state at least until the middle of the period. Later in the period, the Canadian ensemble mean supports trough development across much of Mainland Alaska but this scenario lacks support from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. As time progresses the mid-level flow is predicted to become more zonal across much of the CONUS such that by the end of the period, modestly above normal heights are forecast over most of the CONUS. All ensemble means support this evolution to a lower amplitude pattern but differ on the evolution of individual features within this lower amplitude flow at the end of week 2. Cyclonic flow is forecast to persist across Hawaii at least until the middle of the period. Thereafter the ECMWF progresses this trough eastward to a position off the West Coast of the CONUS by day 14. However, the Canadian and GEFS ensemble means are less supportive of this evolution, and generally favor a continuation of cyclonic flow across Hawaii for most if not all of the period. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS due to strong ridging forecast over the Eastern CONUS and due to modestly rising heights forecast across the West later in the period. Confidence is high (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across parts of the eastern Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, and Central Appalachians due to strong ridging early in the period. Modestly enhanced probabilities of near to below normal temperatures are indicated across the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains underneath predicted shallow cyclonic flow. Above normal temperatures are favored for northwestern Alaska due to predicted above normal mid-level heights. Below normal temperatures are weakly favored for parts of southeastern Alaska due to potential trough development later in week-2. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii due to above normal observed SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. A long duration active pattern remains likely for much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Western Great Lakes, as the large scale pattern supports robust return flow moisture at least until the middle of the period. Above normal precipitation is likely (greater than 50 percent chance) across most of these areas. Additional dynamics, in the form of a mean frontal boundary, support even greater confidence (above 60 percent chance) of above normal precipitation across the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is also favored (but with less confidence than farther to the east) for much of the Central and Southern Rockies, Southwest, due to a predicted cut-off mid-level low during the early and middle portions of the period. Drier than normal conditions are favored for parts of Northern California and southwestern Oregon, as weak ridging approaches from the west. Below normal precipitation is also favored for the southeastern CONUS northward to parts of the Mid-Atlantic, due to strong ridging and associated surface high pressure, especially early in the period. Above normal precipitation is favored for the northern two-thirds of Alaska, consistent with teleconnections from a predicted mean positive anomaly center forecast over the Aleutians. Above normal precipitation remains favored for all of Hawaii, underneath predicted cyclonic flow, especially during the early to middle parts of week-2. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, good model agreement early in the period, followed by a transition to a lower-amplitude pattern near the end of week-2. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20150402 - 20030402 - 20110413 - 20150407 - 20200326 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20150402 - 20070317 - 20030402 - 20040318 - 20110413 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 08 - 12 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 10 - 16 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$