778 FXUS06 KWBC 011909 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon June 01 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 11 2026 The ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE ensemble means are in good agreement today on the 6-10 day mid-level circulation pattern. Below-normal 500-hPa heights and widespread troughing is predicted over much of the north polar region, with above-normal 500-hPa heights and widespread ridging forecast over much of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At high latitudes, a closed-off trough and associated negative height anomalies encompass much of the Arctic Ocean and Alaska. Weak troughing in the full height field continues southward over Southeast Alaska and just inland of the West Coast of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). A flat ridge is forecast over the eastern Pacific, and a strong anomalous ridge is predicted over east-central North America, with maximum height anomalies greater than +150 meters in the vicinity of James Bay, Canada. A significant mid-level trough is predicted over the far northern Atlantic, with a southwestward extension that remains just off the East Coast of the CONUS. Mid-level ridging is forecast north of Hawaii, with near-normal heights favored across the Islands. The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures over most of the CONUS, associated with the broad, strong mid-level ridge centered over east-central North America, and the predominance of southerly low-level flow. Maximum probabilities of 80-90% are favored over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Near-normal temperatures are favored over parts of the Northwest and northwestern California, and portions of southern Texas, due to predicted 500-hPa heights being close to normal on the manual height blend. Below-normal temperatures are favored over most of Alaska, based on the proximity of a predicted mid-level trough and below-normal heights. Over the subtropics, near to above-normal temperatures are favored for the Hawaiian Islands. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest, and most areas east of the Continental Divide (excluding portions of the Great Lakes region and Northeast). Over the Pacific Northwest, this is associated with anticipated onshore flow. East of the Divide, the slightly elevated chances of above-normal precipitation is consistent with widespread Gulf moisture inflow and migrating disturbances that move across the Nation, especially west and south of the largest positive 500-hPa height anomalies associated with the ridge located over east-central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Small areas of favored below-normal precipitation are depicted over the Central Basin and northern New England. In the Alaska domain, above-normal precipitation is favored for most of the state of Alaska, due to onshore flow ahead of a predicted mean trough near the Bering coast. In addition, Tropical Storm Jangmi (currently south of Japan) is forecast to recurve into the mid-latitudes and head east, contributing to precipitation totals along the southern Alaska coast from about Kodiak to Ketchikan. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for the Hawaiian Islands based on automated and ERFCON precipitation forecasts. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, due to generally good agreement among the various height and temperature tools, with a bit more uncertainty among the precipitation model guidance. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 15 2026 The ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE ensemble means are in fairly good agreement today on the 8-14 day mid-level circulation pattern, though there are some variations forecast in both amplitude and phasing. In the Alaska domain, the ECENS is the most bullish on the strength of a predicted trough centered over western Alaska, while the CMCE depicts only a very weak trough near the Bering coast with near-normal heights over much of the state. The ridge favored over east-central North America is predicted to retrograde in the GEFS and CMCE solutions, but the ECENS largely favors zonal flow and positive height departures across southern Canada and the northern CONUS. A comparison of the various model spread (spaghetti) maps shows the GEFS and CMCE favor some troughing across the Pacific Northwest, compared to the flat flow indicated by the ECENS. Near-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast to persist across the Hawaiian Islands, with mid-level ridging to the north. The week-2 temperature outlook favors warmer-than-normal mean temperatures over nearly all of the Lower 48 states, based on widespread positive height anomalies and southerly low-level flow. The highest probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures are 60-70% over the interior West. Widespread anomalous warmth is strongly supported by the Reforecast-calibrated and automated temperature tools. Below-normal temperatures are favored over western and central Alaska, with mostly near-normal temperatures favored over eastern Alaska. Chances of above-normal temperatures are elevated for most of the Hawaiian Islands. The week-2 precipitation outlook favors a slight tilt in the odds of above-normal precipitation over the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, most of the Appalachians, and southern New York and New England. This is based primarily on Gulf inflow interacting with passing fronts, and upslope flow over the southern High Plains. There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above-normal precipitation over portions of the north-central CONUS based on much of the precipitation guidance. A relatively small area of drier-than-normal conditions is favored across the central Pacific coast and central Great Basin. Significant uncertainty warrants widespread near-normal precipitation across a large part of the Lower 48 states. As was the case with the earlier 6-10 day period, most of Alaska and Hawaii are favored to have above-normal precipitation. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near-average, 3 on a scale of 1-5, due to an overall increase of uncertainty regarding the mid-level height pattern, temperature, and precipitation tools during week-2. FORECASTER: Anthony A Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20250525 - 19910604 - 20170604 - 20230604 - 20230512 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910604 - 20250525 - 20230604 - 20230511 - 19910609 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 07 - 11 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 09 - 15 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$