231 FXUS06 KWBC 011930 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed April 01 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 11 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period, with relatively small differences in the strength and location of anomalies. The ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means predict a ridge axis to the west of Mainland Alaska. All models predict positive 500-hPa height anomalies across Alaska, with a ridge extending southeastward along and over the west coast of Canada to the Pacific Northwest. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted by all ensemble means over the North Pacific to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. At the start of the period, a ridge progresses across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from the western and central CONUS to the northeastern CONUS. Models predict a trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Northeast at the start of the period to quickly deamplify and be replaced by the ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies during the 6-10 day period are greater over the eastern CONUS in the ECMWF ensemble mean than the GEFS ensemble mean forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted more in the manual blend of forecasts, due to recent model skill. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, under the predicted persistent ridge. Near normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are likely from the Pacific coast to the Rocky Mountains, extending eastward into parts of the Great Plains, Central and Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley, as a ridge progresses across these regions. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Northern Plains, western Great Lakes region, and Northeast consistent with the temperature consolidation and the influence of mid-level troughing during the period. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, consistent with most dynamical model temperature tools. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for Mainland Alaska, while below normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of Southeast Alaska, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Below normal precipitation is favored for Northern California and western areas of the Pacific Northwest, as a ridge pushes inland during the period. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the central CONUS, including the Southwest, eastern Great Basin, Four Corners, High Plains, Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes region, due to predicted southerly moisture flow into these regions and consistent with ECMWF calibrated precipitation forecasts. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Florida Peninsula, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. As a ridge amplifies over the region, below normal precipitation is favored from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Above normal precipitation is likely for all of Hawaii, ahead of a predicted trough. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to general agreement among ensemble means on the longwave 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools, particularly for the eastern CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models predict a similar pattern to the 6-10 day forecasts, with some evolution of their respective mid-level circulation patterns. A ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska and the Pacific coast of North America deamplify slightly in the 8-14 day period, while the predicted ridge over the eastern CONUS amplifies and progresses slightly eastward, relative to the 6-10 day period model forecasts. The ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means continue to predict a second ridge axis to the west of Mainland Alaska. All model 8-14 day period forecasts predict increasing positive 500-hPa height anomalies across most of the CONUS, with a ridge and greater mid-level height anomalies over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS. The ECMWF ensemble mean predicts greater magnitude positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the CONUS than the GEFS ensemble mean. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies continue to be forecast to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands in the 8-14 day period. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the Aleutians and northwestern Mainland Alaska, under the predicted persistent ridge. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and northern Southeast Alaska, consistent with most raw model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the CONUS in the week-2 period, under primarily positive 500-hPa height anomalies and consistent with ECMWF model tools. Probabilities for above normal exceed 60 percent for much of California into western Nevada, consistent with most model temperature tools. The pattern over the eastern CONUS changes rapidly from the start of the period, with rising mid-level heights and an amplifying ridge over the region leading to rising temperatures. Likely above normal temperatures extend from the Pacific coast to the Atlantic coast. Near to below normal temperatures are slightly favored for the northern central CONUS, parts of South Florida, and northern Maine, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures continue to be likely for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with most model tools. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across Mainland and Southeast Alaska, consistent with most precipitation tools and the precipitation consolidation. Below normal precipitation is favored for a larger area of the northwestern CONUS in the 8-14 day period than the 6-10 day period, as a ridge is predicted to push eastward. Southerly moisture flow around high pressure leads to enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation for a large swath of the central CONUS, including the Southwest, Four Corners, Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, and northern New England. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for most of the southern Atlantic coastal states, under a predicted ridge. Above normal precipitation continues to be likely for Hawaii ahead of the predicted trough. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by uncertainty among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20150402 - 20030401 - 20040318 - 20210331 - 19890317 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20150402 - 20070317 - 20040318 - 20030401 - 20110413 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 07 - 11 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 09 - 15 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE N A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$