529 FXUS06 KWBC 191902 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EDT THU APRIL 19 2018 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29 2018 TODAY'S VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND THE EAST COAST. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE CANADIAN, EUROPEAN, AND GEFS MODEL SUITES. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND THE NORTHEAST, WHILE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED. TROUGHING NEAR THE EAST COAST LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NEVADA, THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A PREDICTED MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL PREDICTED STORM SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE SURFACE TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2018 THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. TROUGHING NEAR THE EAST COAST LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST EXCEPT FOR MAINE WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON, NORTHERN IDAHO, AND NORTHERN MONTANA, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS TOOL. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR ALASKA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST COAST, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL PREDICTED STORM SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE SURFACE TOOLS. FORECASTER: LUKE H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 17. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950415 - 19510502 - 20090412 - 19750501 - 20010401 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950415 - 20090411 - 19750427 - 19790409 - 19580405 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$