592 FXUS06 KWBC 092001 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon March 09 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 19 2026 Today's 6-10 day multi-model ensembles are in good agreement on the mean mid-level flow features over the Pacific-North America domain. These features include an anomalous trough and negative height anomalies predicted over northern and eastern Canada, extending into most of Alaska and much of the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Pronounced mid-level ridges and positive height anomalies are indicated over the Bering Sea, from the eastern Pacific to the south-central CONUS, and over the west-central Atlantic. Multi-model ensemble spread is small over the CONUS, but moderate over the Central Pacific. 500-hPa heights are predicted to be near-average over Hawaii, with mid-level low pressure forecast northwest of the island chain. Below-normal temperatures are favored over most of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS, and over Alaska, as supported by the reforecast temperature tools and the forecasted 500-hPa circulation pattern. The GEFS reforecast tool predicts the most widespread anomalous cold, covering almost the entire eastern half of the CONUS, while the ECENS reforecast is modest with its anomalous cold coverage, keeping it confined to the eastern Dakotas, Upper Mississippi Valley, western and central Great Lakes region, and northern Maine. The CMCE solution lies in-between the other two. The bias-corrected and raw temperature tools from the three ensemble means are most consistent with the GEFS reforecast tool, indicating widespread favored below-normal temperatures over the eastern half of the CONUS. The 6-10 day temperature analog from the official height blend doesn't buy into this extensive area of forecast below-normal temperatures. Teleconnections were considered using a negative height anomaly center near 60N/85W and a positive height anomaly center near 40N/120W. These provided some support for the anomalous cold to reach as far south as the Gulf Coast states, with a slightly westward (inland) preference. Given all the uncertainty, and the possibility of a late season freeze in the Deep South, it was decided to go with a more bullish version of yesterday's outlook. Above-normal temperature chances are elevated across most of the West, central High Plains, and southern Plains, with residual anomalous warmth favored over central and southern Florida. Chances for above-normal temperatures are in excess of 90 percent over southern California and nearby parts of Nevada. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also favored in Hawaii, in line with the consolidation tool. The precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation from Washington state and northern Oregon eastward across the Northern Intermountain region and Northern Rockies, the Northern Plains, much of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, Ohio and Upper Tennessee Valleys, Appalachians, and the Atlantic coastal plain. This pattern coincides with the approximate mean position of the polar jet and associated storm track. Above-normal precipitation is also favored over the eastern Mainland of Alaska, Southeast Alaska, and the Hawaiian Islands, based on the reforecast precipitation maps. Below-normal precipitation chances are enhanced across the southwestern and south-central CONUS (related to mid-level ridging and positive height anomalies), and western Alaska (drier northerly anomalous flow). The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, based on good agreement among the various height and precipitation guidance, offset by significant discrepancies among the temperature tools over the East. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 23 2026 Today's week-2 multi-model ensembles remain in reasonably good agreement on the mean mid-level flow features over the Pacific-North America domain, but uncertainty has increased over the domain as evidenced by the multi-model ensemble spread. A strong mid-level trough continues to be forecast over northern and eastern Canada, with a weakened southward extension into the Eastern CONUS. The western portion of the Canadian trough pivots southward across Alaska. Strong mid-level ridges are predicted over eastern Siberia/Bering Sea, the Central Atlantic, and from the Eastern Pacific to the Central CONUS. Over the Hawaiian domain, 500-hPa heights are predicted to remain near-average during week-2. The week-2 temperature outlook favors warmer-than-normal temperatures over approximately the western half of the CONUS, extending southeastward across much of the Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee. Maximum probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures exceed 90 percent over a large fraction of the southwestern CONUS. Of the three reforecast-calibrated temperature forecasts, the ECENS and CMCE solutions extend the favored warmth across the western half of the Gulf Coast region, while the GEFS solution keeps the favored warmth no farther east than Texas. Anomalous warmth is also favored across the Hawaiian Islands. Significant uncertainty persists regarding the spatial coverage of favored below-normal temperatures in the East. Once again, the ECENS reforecast temperature tool is the most conservative, favoring below-normal temperatures only over the Northeast. The CMCE favors somewhat greater coverage than the ECENS, and the GEFS is the most bullish with its prediction of favored below-normal temperatures for nearly all areas east of the Mississippi River. As the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually lift out of the East, the accompanying below-normal temperatures at the surface are expected to follow suit with a slow northward retreat. Below-normal temperatures are favored over nearly all of Alaska, due to the proximity of a mid-level trough and negative height anomalies, and an amplified ridge upstream. The precipitation outlook favors increased chances of wetter-than-normal conditions along the U.S.-Canadian border from Washington state eastward to the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, with residual anomalous wetness for much of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This aligns approximately with the general storm track. Near the Eastern Seaboard, the associated cold front is expected to hang back over the Florida Peninsula, setting off showers and perhaps some thunderstorms within the warm sector. Above-normal precipitation chances are elevated over Southeast Alaska and portions of the eastern Mainland, in advance of a mid-level trough axis. Wetter-than-normal conditions continue to be favored for the Hawaiian islands, in advance of a mid-level trough and associated surface low. Below-normal precipitation chances are enhanced over western Alaska including the Alaska Peninsula (in the subsidence region behind the mean trough axis), and most of the remainder of the CONUS, well enough removed from the mean storm track. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above-average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, based on good agreement among the various height guidance, offset by some discrepancies in the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Anthony A Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20040305 - 20070321 - 19910221 - 20230218 - 20210223 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070320 - 19910221 - 20040305 - 19970217 - 20220318 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 15 - 19 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 17 - 23 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$