364 FXUS06 KWBC 311902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 10 2026 The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE remain consistent that a strong 500-hPa ridge returns to the north-central contiguous U.S. (CONUS) from June 6 to 10. This anomalous 500-hPa ridge favors above-normal temperatures across the Great Plains and Midwest with the largest probabilities (> 70%) forecast for the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The GEFS has trended towards the warmer ECENS and CMCE east of the Appalachians with the north-central CONUS ridge forecast to expand eastward. Therefore, above-normal temperatures are also favored along the East Coast. Due to positive 500-hPa height anomalies, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures extends west to the Rockies. Near to below-normal temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest and California with an amplified 500-hPa trough affecting these areas early in the period. 30-day precipitation has averaged more than 200 percent of normal across most of south-central Texas, the Gulf Coast, and Lower Mississippi Valley. This anomalously wet May has led to high soil moisture (SM) in these areas. There is a significant negative correlation between SM and temperature during June. Therefore, SM is expected to have a cooling effect on temperatures across the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, and Gulf Coast region. Despite a strengthening 500-hPa ridge (heights exceeding 588 dm), the 6-10 day outlook outlook only slightly leans on the warmer side or favors near normal temperatures from the Rio Grande Valley east to the Gulf Coast. On day 6 (June 6), a front is forecast to become stationary from the Southern Great Plains east to the Tennessee Valley, before retreating northward as a warm front. This predicted surface pattern coupled with return Gulf flow leads to elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities across a broad area of the central and eastern CONUS. Compared to the past two days, the ensemble means have trended north with the axis of heaviest precipitation and now depict 5-day amounts exceeding one inch as far north as Chicago. Therefore, above-normal precipitation probabilities were increased today across the Midwest. Surface high pressure favors near to below-normal precipitation for most of the Northeast. The amplified trough, along the West Coast early in the period, supports elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for the Pacific Northwest and northern California. A deep 500-hPa closed low is forecast to persist north of Alaska which supports an increased chance of below-normal temperatures across northern Alaska. As a longwave trough develops over the state, temperatures are expected to trend colder with near normal temperatures favored for the southern half of Alaska. The amplifying 500-hPa trough leads to enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities for a majority of Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, near to above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast throughout Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement and consistency. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14 2026 A broad, anomalous 500-hPa ridge is forecast to cover much of the lower 48 states during the second week of June. This ridge is forecast to peak in strength over the Great Lakes at the beginning of week-2 and recent model runs have shifted the amplified ridge axis east with a notable increase in 500-hPa heights across the Northeast. Except for the Gulf Coast, the manual blend depicts 500-hPa height departures of greater than +30 meters. The expansive and strong mid-level ridge during early to mid-June favors above-normal temperatures for almost the entire CONUS with probabilities exceeding 50% across a majority of the lower 48 states. Later in week-2, the ECENS is the most bullish with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest and California. This model solution would be consistent with the amplified trough upstream over Alaska and the week-2 outlook hedged towards the warmer ECENS throughout the western CONUS. The precipitation outlook is more uncertain during week-2 as a summertime pattern with convective rainfall becomes established. The uncalibrated dynamical model output and the analog tool derived from the manual 500-hPa height blend was generally followed as guidance. Although the outlook leans slightly (33-40% chance) wet for much of the eastern to central CONUS, the analog tool is drier which lowers forecast confidence. Similar to the 6-10 day outlook, the increased chance of above-normal precipitation is expanded north of the Ohio River. However, 7-day precipitation amounts from the ECENS and GEFS remain lower from the Great Lakes to New England where near normal precipitation is more likely. The elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities forecast across the Missouri River Valley is related to a predicted favorable pattern for mesoscale convective systems overtop the 500-hPa ridge. Early in week-2, the GEFS and ECENS are depicting an easterly wave crossing South Florida where above-normal precipitation probabilities are greater than 40 percent. The heaviest precipitation, associated with the amplified trough along the West Coast, is expected to end by the beginning of week-2. Therefore, near normal precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest. The outlook continues to lean on the drier side across parts of northern California and the Great Basin, while near normal precipitation is forecast for the climatologically dry areas of southern California and the Desert Southwest. A closed 500-hPa low to the north of Alaska with a trough extending south to the Bering Sea supports an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for much of Alaska. Based on a skill-weighted consensus between the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools, probabilities exceed 40 percent across southeastern Alaska. The wet pattern and 500-hPa trough support near to below-normal temperatures. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies along coastal southwestern Alaska and surrounding the Alaska Peninsula also support colder-than-normal temperatures for those areas. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii except the northwestern islands. Above-normal precipitation remains favored through week-2. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement among the temperature tools offset by weak or conflicting signals among the precipitation tools along with increasing ensemble spread. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20250525 - 19910603 - 19980521 - 20230604 - 20170604 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20250524 - 19910603 - 20230531 - 19910608 - 19980520 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 06 - 10 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 08 - 14 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$