745 FXUS06 KWBC 102013 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Tue February 10 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2026 Today's multi-model ensemble means are in fairly good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across the North American domain during the 6-10 day period. An amplified wavetrain is forecast, featuring a strong mid-level ridge from the east-central Pacific across the Aleutians, Bering Sea, and much of Mainland Alaska; a deep anomalous trough over much of western North America, and a strong anomalous ridge over eastern North America. Over the eastern Mainland of Alaska, the 0z ECENS and 0z CMCE solutions depict mean ridging, while the 6z GEFS predicts the incursion of negative height anomalies associated with the mean troughing over western Canada and the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Apart from this regional difference, the various ensemble means show good continuity with their respective previous solutions and the big picture overall. The Hawaiian Islands are expected to be near the southern margin of the strong east-central Pacific ridge, with near to slightly above-normal heights forecast. In addition, a mid-level trough is forecast west-northwest of the island chain, with the associated negative height anomaly center predicted near 25N/175W. The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors below-normal temperatures over the Far West, which is generally consistent with the majority of tools. The raw and bias-corrected solutions from the multi-model ensembles favor a more expansive area of below-normal temperatures which includes most areas west of the Continental Divide. Given the predicted location of the western CONUS trough axis, it is thought that the greater coverage of anomalous cold forecast by the raw and bias-corrected solutions is too widespread. The increased odds for colder-than-normal temperatures includes nearly all of Alaska, associated with the broad anomalous trough predicted over much of western North America and surface easterly flow. Maximum odds favoring below-normal temperatures exceeds 70 percent for portions of Southeast Alaska. The Alaska Peninsula represents the near-normal transition zone between below-normal temperatures favored to the north and east, and the above-normal temperatures over the Aleutians (related to mid-level ridging and positive height anomalies). Over the Lower 48 states, from the eastern Intermountain region and Rockies eastward across the central CONUS to the Atlantic coast, above-normal temperatures are favored. Odds favoring above-normal temperatures exceed 80 percent over parts of the south-central CONUS. The western portion of this area of favored anomalous warmth lies ahead (east) of the western trough axis, with the remaining area (Central and Eastern CONUS) related to a forecast mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies. For Hawaii, above-average sea-surface temperatures and near to slightly above-average 500-hPa heights support above-normal temperatures across the island chain. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation for most of the western and northern. The greatest odds exceed 80 percent over southern California. This is consistent with the mid-level trough over the region and supported by most of the precipitation tools. Shortwaves embedded in the mid-level flow, accompanied by lee-side cyclogenesis over the central High Plains, increases the odds of above-normal precipitation to at least 50 percent over the north-central states. Below-normal precipitation chances are increased from the southern half of the Great Plains eastward across the southern half of the Mississippi Valley to approximately the southern half of the Atlantic coast states, under stronger mid-level ridging and positive height anomalies relative to yesterday. Odds for below-normal precipitation are favored to surpass 50 percent over western and central portions of the Gulf Coast region. Over the Alaska domain, a waning onshore flow pattern still favors above-normal precipitation over western portions of the Mainland and the Aleutians. Offshore flow favors below-normal precipitation across portions of south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. The ERF-CON and automated precipitation tools favor wetter-than-normal conditions across the Hawaiian Islands during the 6-10 day period. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, based on very good agreement among the 500-hPa height models and surface temperature tools, slightly offset by some differences in the precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2026 The predicted week-2 mean circulation pattern shows very good continuity with the earlier 6-10 day forecast pattern, and with yesterday's official week-2 circulation forecast. Mid-level ridging predicted over the east-central Pacific and much of Alaska during today's 6-10 period is forecast to shift westward towards the north-central Pacific, with the greatest positive height anomalies extending northward across the western and central Aleutians and much of the Bering Sea. An anomalous mid-level trough and negative height anomalies are predicted over most of western North America, while farther downstream, an anomalous mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies are predicted over eastern North America. This height anomaly pattern is a classic example of a strong negative Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern. The 8-14 day temperature outlook is very similar to the earlier 6-10 day temperature outlook. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the Far West, with a weak eastward extension over portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Some of the temperature guidance favors a broad, weaker temperature anomaly pattern ranging from slightly below-normal to near-normal across the Northern Intermountain region, which may be related to a broad pattern of surface low pressure which does not support the low-level radiation inversions that commonly affect this region during the winter. Above-normal temperatures are favored from the eastern Four Corners region and Wyoming eastward across most of the Central and Eastern CONUS, with a maximum 70-80 percent chance of anomalous warmth over south-central and southeastern portions of the CONUS. Reduced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are favored over the Northeast, in closer proximity to a mid-level trough over the Canadian Maritimes. The week-2 temperature outlook is well supported by many of the temperature tools. In Alaska, below-normal temperatures are favored over nearly all of the state, with the exception of near to above-normal temperatures over the central and western Aleutians. The ERF-CON tool continues to support above-normal temperatures across Hawaii. The 8-14 day precipitation outlook depicts increased chances of above-normal amounts for practically all areas west of the Continental Divide, warranted by the raw, reforecast and automated precipitation tools. The greatest probabilities (50-60 percent) of above-normal precipitation are indicated over southern California, associated with the mid-level trough and negative height anomalies, especially near the start of the forecast period. East of the Divide, above-normal precipitation is favored from the northern and central Plains eastward across the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, most of the Appalachians, and the Atlantic coastal plain from Maine to the Chesapeake Bay area. This is related to one or more Colorado Lows that are forecast to travel northeastward across the Great Lakes region during week-2. Clockwise flow around a surface high pressure center off the Southeast coast is expected to steer adequate moisture into the Central and Eastern CONUS from the Gulf. Below-normal precipitation amounts are favored for portions of the southern Plains, and along the Gulf and Southeast coast states, far enough removed from active weather systems. In Alaska, with a transitional pattern expected to be underway during week-2, the combination of northerly anomalous flow aloft and east-to-southeasterly flow at the surface favor near and slightly below-normal areas of precipitation across the state. For Hawaii, wetter-than-normal conditions continue to be favored. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 on a scale of 1-5, based on very good agreement among the 500-hPa height models and surface temperature tools, slightly offset by some differences in the precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Anthony A Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20050121 - 20150127 - 19960212 - 20160121 - 20030126 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20050121 - 20160211 - 20150126 - 20150213 - 20030126 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 16 - 20 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 18 - 24 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$