747 FXUS06 KWBC 181901 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Sat April 18 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in good agreement on the predicted highly amplified 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period, and are consistent on underlying variations in the pattern through the period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model stronger due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill. The manual blend indicates a deep trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Bering Sea and the Aleutians during the 6-10 day period. A strong ridge and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over Alaska and the northeastern Pacific Ocean, progressing eastward into the northwestern contiguous United States (CONUS) and British Columbia over time. A trough is predicted over the southwestern CONUS. Another trough is forecast over the north-central CONUS. A high amplitude 500-hPa height anomaly is predicted to the southeast of Greenland in all dynamical models. Weak mid-level height anomalies are predicted in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands in model forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored over parts of southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska in the 6-10 day period, due to above normal 500-hPa heights and supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. As positive 500-hPa height anomalies rise over the northwestern CONUS, probabilities favoring above normal temperatures are enhanced. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Northern Rockies, the Northern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley extending southwestward to the southwestern CONUS, under a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored over portions of the Southern Plains and most of the eastern CONUS consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, consistent with model temperature tools and positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the vicinity. Above normal precipitation is favored for the eastern Aleutians, Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, ahead of a deep predicted trough over the Bering Sea. Near to below normal precipitation is favored for the northwestern CONUS under rising positive 500-hPa height anomalies, and consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Above normal precipitation is favored across a large area of the remainder of the CONUS with probabilities exceeding 50 percent for portions of the southwestern CONUS, under predicted cyclonic mid-level follow and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf of America, supported by most of the precipitation forecast tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the precipitation consolidation forecast. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to agreement among ensemble means on the amplified 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern, with some deamplification of ensemble mean forecast 500-hPa height anomalies relative to the 610 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. The mean pattern still favors troughing and below normal 500-hPa heights across the Bering Sea and the Aleutians. A ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over Mainland Alaska, Southeast Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska, progressing into the northwestern CONUS in the week-2 period. A trough and weak below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the southwestern CONUS. Another trough is predicted over the northeastern CONUS. Cyclonic flow is forecast to persist across Hawaii at least until the middle of the period. Above normal temperatures are predicted over eastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska during week 2, in association with a predicted ridge and above normal 500-hPa and consistent with most model tools. Under rising mid-level heights, near to above normal temperatures are favored across most of the West in week 2, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts. Below normal temperatures are favored over the Rockies extending eastward to the Great Plains and northeastern CONUS, while above normal temperatures are favored along the immediate Gulf Coast, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, consistent with most model tools. During the 8-14 day period, above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the eastern Aleutians, Mainland Alaska, and northern areas of Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough over the Bering Sea, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. As positive 500-hPa height anomalies expand across the northwestern CONUS, below normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest. An active precipitation pattern is predicted across the southern CONUS in the week-2 period by calibrated GEFS and ECMWF precipitation forecasts. Above normal precipitation is favored from California across the Southwest, the Central and Southern Rockies, and the Central and Southern Plains, ahead of a predicted trough. Above normal precipitation is also favored for most of the eastern CONUS, with predicted enhanced southerly moisture flow. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, supported by the precipitation consolidation. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with fair agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by increasing uncertainty among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20020415 - 20210329 - 20180502 - 19980329 - 20200329 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20020417 - 20210328 - 20200328 - 20180501 - 20020412 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 24 - 28 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 26 - May 02, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$