398 FXUS06 KWBC 181902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed March 18 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in good agreement on the predicted highly amplified 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period and are consistent on underlying variations in the pattern through the period. The manual blend indicates below normal mid-level heights across most of the higher latitudes of North America stretching across most of Canada and parts of southeastern Alaska. A pair of mid level troughs are forecast within this broad area of below normal heights, centered over the Gulf of Alaska and over eastern Canada. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast upstream of the Gulf of Alaska trough, centered overBering Sea, with positive height departures of greater than +210 meters. The trough over eastern Canada is forecast to extend southward across New England, but most of the remainder of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) is forecast to be dominated by expansive ridging. Mid-level troughing is forecast in the vicinity of Hawaii, leading to a potentially active pattern across the state. Expansive ridging supports above normal temperatures for most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS and extends to the southeastern CONUS. The predicted anomalous strength of this ridge leads to exceptionally high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across parts of the southwestern CONUS. Below normal temperatures are more likely across parts of the northeastern CONUS due to predicted troughing in the vicinity. Confidence for below normal temperatures is even higher across most of Alaska due to predicted deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska. Very high confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is forecast for parts of southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, close to the predicted trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal temperatures are favored for the western Aleutians, associated with predicted strong anomalous ridging. Near to above normal temperatures are also favored for Hawaii, influenced by observed above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Pacific. The predicted expansive ridge and associated surface high pressure support below normal precipitation across the majority of theCONUS. Confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for below normal precipitation over the southwestern CONUS, where the influence of this ridge is expected to be the greatest. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored over southern Florida, supported by most dynamical precipitation forecast tools. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Great Basin , the Northern Rockies, and portions of the Upper Great Lakes and the Northeast, associated with an expected enhanced mid-level height gradient between predicted ridging to the south and troughing to the north. Near to below normal precipitation is favored for most of Mainland Alaska due to predicted mean offshore low-level flow, while above normal precipitation is likely over parts of Southeastern Alaska, due to the predicted trough over the Gulf of Alaska. An active pattern is likely across the island chain underneath predicted persistent cyclonic mid-level flow, consistent with the precipitation consolidation forecast. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to agreement among ensemble means on the amplified 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts of the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models continue to be in general agreement on the 8-14 day average mid-level circulation pattern, and are consistent with the 6-10 day period forecasts, with some deamplification of ensemble mean forecast 500-hPa height anomalies. The mean pattern still favors below normal heights across most of the higher latitudes of North America and above normal heights across most of the CONUS. Prominent high latitude troughs continue to be predicted for the Gulf of Alaska and over Atlantic Canada, with strong ridging forecast over eastern Siberia, albeit with reduced amplitude relative to the 6 to 10 day period. Farther to the south and west, the amplitude of the mean ridge over the CONUS is forecast to weaken. However, the ridge is still expected to be expansive, with above normal mean mid-level heights stretching from coast to coast. Mid-level troughing is forecast to persist into week-2 across Hawaii, setting the stage for a potential long-duration active pattern across the island chain. Despite the reduced amplitude of the week-2 pattern, widespread above normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of the CONUS (except for portions of the northeastern CONUS where below normal temperatures are forecast) due to the expansive nature of the predicted ridge. Confidence for above normal temperatures is still very high (greater than 80 percent chance) over parts of southern California, southeastern Nevada, and portions of the Four Corners region, particularly early in the period. Below normal temperatures continue to be likely across most of Alaska, as the predicted trough over the Gulf of Alaska slowly progresses eastward. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of the western Aleutians, due to predicted persistent mid-level ridging. The temperature forecast for Hawaii tilts warmer than normal, consistent with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Below normal precipitation is favored over most of the western and Central CONUS in the 8-14 day period, as ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist in model forecasts. Below normal precipitation is also likely over most of the southeastern CONUS due to surface high pressure over the region. A tilt toward near to above normal precipitation is indicated across much of the south-central CONUS and Florida due to the potential for low-level return flow from the Gulf. Slightly above normal precipitation is likely over the Great Lakes region, supported by most of the precipitation forecast tools. Near to below normal precipitation is likely for most of Alaska due to predicted mean offshore flow. A prolonged active pattern is favored for Hawaii underneath predicted persistent cyclonic mid-level flow. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to a predicted high amplitude pattern early in the period offset by a potential pattern transition later in the period. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070315 - 20030329 - 20170302 - 20210331 - 20130314 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070315 - 20030329 - 20210330 - 20250325 - 20170301 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 24 - 28 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA A B OHIO N N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 26 - Apr 01, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$