714 FXUS06 KWBC 112002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Sun January 11 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means continue to predict a highly amplified circulation pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the 610 day period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model more heavily due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill. The manual blend indicates a persistent and strong mid-level ridge with positive 500-hPa height anomalies across the Aleutians, Mainland Alaska, Southeast Alaska, the North Pacific, and the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Downstream, models remain in good agreement regarding negative 500-hPa height anomalies and a deep mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS. Troughing across the central Pacific favors below normal 500-hPa heights over much of Hawaii during the 610 day period. Across the CONUS, positive 500-hPa height anomalies should result in above normal temperatures across most of the western CONUS. Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent over parts of California and Nevada, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Conversely, probabilities for below normal temperatures are increased across much of the East, with antecedent warmer temperatures timing off following a frontal passage prior to the start of the period in association with enhanced mid-level troughing. Chances for above normal temperatures are increased across portions of southeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska underneath ridging. Residual troughing early in the period tilts the odds toward below normal temperatures over northern parts of Alaska. The consolidation reforecast supports a tilt toward near normal temperature across the northwestern-most Hawaiian islands, with increasing chances for above normal temperatures further south and east in the 6-10 day period. Ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific continues to favor a much drier pattern over the western CONUS compared to late December. Near to below normal precipitation is forecast over most of the central and eastern CONUS, except for southern Texas, where above normal precipitation is indicated, supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Enhanced onshore flow favors above normal precipitation across most of Alaska, with a slight tilt toward below normal precipitation across Southeast Alaska and parts of the immediate southern coast of the Mainland, where model forecasts are in agreement. In Hawaii, troughing and surface low pressure also strongly favor above-normal precipitation over Hawaii during the 610 day period, consistent with the precipitation consolidation forecast. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5), due to overall agreement on the evolving mid-level circulation pattern, with differences in temperature and precipitation forecast tools for some areas. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 610 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. Ridging initially over the West is forecast to weaken and become more focused across the northeastern Pacific. Downstream, troughing is forecast to gradually lift out of the East, with the largest negative 500-hPa height anomalies shifting to the northwestern Atlantic. Some expansion of positive height anomalies is forecast across the south-central and southeastern CONUS in its wake. As a result of this pattern evolution, mid-level heights are predicted to fall across the western CONUS. The week-2 manual height blend is driven by patterns early in the period and continues to depict below normal heights across most of the northeastern CONUS and weak above normal heights across the southern CONUS and Alaska. Below-normal heights remain forecast over Hawaii underneath troughing. Above-normal temperature chances remain elevated across most of the western and south-central CONUS, given the persistence of relatively warmer conditions longer into week-2. The strongest chances exceeding 60 percent are most likely over parts of Four Corners regions. Below normal temperatures are favored for portions of the Northern Plains, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and most of the northeastern CONUS, under a predicted trough and below normal 500-hPa heights during week-2. Ridging over the Bering Sea and eastern Russia favors the development of more northerly mid-level flow and a potential return to a colder pattern across Alaska later in the period, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Above-normal temperatures are favored over Hawaii, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of California, Nevada, Nebraska, and Kansas in association with above normal 500-hPa heights over the region. Below normal precipitation is indicated over portions of the southeastern CONUS, with slightly enhanced chances for above normal precipitation over parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Montana extending eastward into North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Increased probabilities for above normal precipitation is most likely across northeastern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, with below normal precipitation odds increased over southwestern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians underneath more influence from ridging. High probabilities for above-normal precipitation continue across Hawaii in the week-2 period. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average (3 out of 5), due to overall agreement on the evolving mid-level circulation pattern, with differences in temperature and precipitation forecast tools for some areas. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on January 15. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070105 - 20120125 - 19890124 - 20140112 - 20151222 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070106 - 19890117 - 20060124 - 20151221 - 19890123 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 17 - 21 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 19 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$