213 FXUS06 KWBC 052027 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Thu March 05 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period with some differences on the pattern over the CONUS and underlying variations in the pattern through the period. All ensemble means predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the western Aleutians and Bering Sea extending over western Mainland Alaska. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska are predicted to progress eastward during the period with rising mid-level heights over the Mainland. A ridge and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the northeastern Pacific extending into the southwestern contiguous United States (CONUS) by all ensemble means, with the ECMWF predicting the greatest amplitude positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending into parts of the Pacific Northwest. At the start of the 6-10 day forecast period, a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the eastern CONUS from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Coast. While all ensemble means predict negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Canada extending southward over parts of the northern CONUS, the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble models generally predict extension of higher amplitude negative 500-hPa height anomalies further south into the East as the period progresses, compared to the GEFS. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted upstream to the west of Hawaii by dynamical models. Above normal temperatures are likely for the western Aleutians, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are likely for the eastern Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, ahead of the predicted ridge and under northerly flow, and likely for Southeast Alaska under negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the CONUS from the northern Pacific Northwest into the western Great Lakes region, under the predicted trough. Under average positive 500-hPa height anomalies, above normal temperatures are strongly favored for most of the remainder of the CONUS, including the Southwest where probabilities exceed 80 percent in some areas. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for northwestern Hawaiian Island and 80 percent for southeastern islands, consistent with the reforecast-calibrated consolidation tool. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Aleutians under the predicted ridge and for much of Mainland Alaska, excluding climatologically dry areas in the north, under northerly mid-level flow. Near to above normal precipitation is slightly favored for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the Mainland, ahead of a predicted low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska. Consistent with dynamical model forecasts, above normal precipitation is very likely for Hawaii, ahead of a predicted trough. Below normal precipitation is likely for central and southern areas of the western CONUS, under the predicted ridge. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest eastward into the north-central CONUS, with strong zonal flow between positive and negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Gulf Coast and eastern half of the CONUS, consistent with the reforecast-calibrated precipitation consolidation. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to general agreement among ensemble means on the longwave 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by differences in the 500-hPa height forecast and the model temperature and precipitation tools over the eastern CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models are similar to their respective 6-10 day period forecasts, with some evolution of the 500-hPa height pattern. The ECMWF continues to predict a more amplified overall pattern relative to the GEFS. Models predict persistence of a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the western Aleutians and Bering Sea. Dynamical models predict negative 500-hPa height anomalies associated with a trough over most of the Mainland and Southeast Alaska, with some model differences on the extent and amplitude of negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the western Mainland. A predicted ridge and positive 500-hPa anomalies over the southwestern CONUS are predicted to expand northward into Washington and Northern Rockies by the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, as well as the manual blend of models, while the GEFS predicts slightly negative 500-hPa height anomalies over this region. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted slightly higher in the manual blend, due to recent skill. A predicted trough centered over the Great Lakes region expands southward into the Ohio Valley and eastward into the Northeast during the 8-14 day period, with the ECMWF ensemble mean predicting negative 500-hPa height anomalies to extend as far south as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas later in the period. There are substantial differences in the 500-hPa height forecasts for the central Atlantic coast late in the 8-14 day period, with the GEFS predicting positive anomalies and the ECMWF predicting negative anomalies. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted to the west of Hawaii by all models. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for the western Aleutians in the 8-14 day period, and below normal temperatures continue to be likely for Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, due to the persistent ridge over the Aleutians and predominantly negative 500-hPa height anomalies to the east. Above normal temperatures are likely over most of the western half of the CONUS, from the Pacific Coast to the Northern High Plains, the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast, as the ridge is predicted to amplify over the West, especially by the ECMWF ensemble. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the northern central CONUS, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast, under the predicted trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies in the manual blend. Uncertainty among the models in the 500-hPa height forecast leads to a forecast of near normal temperatures for the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Aleutians and western Mainland Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under the predicted ridge and anomalous northerly flow to the east. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of southeastern Mainland Alaska, ahead of a surface low over the Gulf of Alaska near the coast. Below normal precipitation continues to be favored for the southwestern CONUS from California to the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, under a predicted ridge. Above normal precipitation is favored for northern areas of Oregon and Washington eastward across the northern tier into parts of the Northern Plains, under fast zonal flow early in the period before the expanding ridge cuts off the flow. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Great Lakes region, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, as well as parts of South Texas and South Florida, consistent with most model tools. There is greater uncertainty in the precipitation forecast for the Southeast, where near normal precipitation is slightly favored. Above normal precipitation is likely for Hawaii ahead of a predicted trough. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by increasing spread and differences on the 500-hPa height, temperature, and precipitation forecast for the eastern CONUS. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20220316 - 19970216 - 20070319 - 20080302 - 19910222 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070318 - 19910220 - 20070313 - 20220315 - 19970217 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 11 - 15 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 13 - 19 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$