363 FXUS06 KWBC 271930 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri March 27 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 06 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period. However, there are notable differences in some areas and underlying variations in the pattern through the period. All ensemble means predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over eastern Siberia and the western Bering Sea and a second ridge over the North Pacific to the south of Alaska. At the start of the period, a trough and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted downstream over the northwestern contiguous United States (CONUS) by all models, with a more amplified ridge and trough in the ECMWF relative to the GEFS forecast. All models predict the trough to initially deamplify and progress northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as the ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies push eastward into the West during the period. However the GEFS predicts a trough to amplify over the eastern CONUS later in the period, with rising mid-level heights over the western CONUS. In contrast, the ECMWF and Canadian models predict positive 500-hPa height anomalies to persist over the Southeast and the Eastern Seaboard throughout the 6-10 day period. Positive average 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the eastern half of the CONUS by all ensemble means and the manual blend of ensemble mean forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble mean was given the greatest weight in today's manual blend, due to recent model skill and consistency with yesterday's forecast. Below normal temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians, southern and eastern Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, under enhanced northerly flow. Above normal temperatures are increasingly likely for much of California and the Southwest, as mid-level heights rise during the period. With uncertainty in the temperature forecast tools, as a trough progresses eastward and deamplifies, near normal is favored across the remaining areas of the West and for the northern central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are very likely for much of the eastern CONUS outside of Northern New England, under persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies in most dynamical model forecasts, and consistent with calibrated model temperature forecasts. Near to below normal temperatures are slightly favored for northern New England, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model temperatures. Above normal temperatures are favored for the Big Island of Hawaii, consistent with calibrated ECMWF temperature forecasts. Above normal precipitation is favored for southern and eastern interior Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted surface low. Near normal precipitation is favored across the West from the Pacific coast to the Rocky Mountains, with significant uncertainty as the ridge over the Pacific replaces the trough over the West earlier in the period. Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the CONUS to the east of the Rocky Mountains, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts. Near normal is favored over parts of the Southeast, consistent with raw model precipitation tools. Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent for parts of Texas, the Midwest, and the eastern Great Lakes region, as southerly surface moisture flow is enhanced into these areas. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Big Island of Hawaii, consistent with raw ECMWF model precipitation forecasts. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to general agreement among ensemble means on the longwave 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by differences in the daily 500-hPa height forecasts and in the model temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models are similar to their respective 6-10 day period forecasts, with some evolution of the 500-hPa height pattern. The ECMWF predicts a more amplified ridge over the North Pacific with positive 500-hPa height anomalies across Alaska, while the GEFS predicts weak or negative mid-level height anomalies across the Mainland. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies extend from the Pacific across much of the western CONUS in the 8-14 day period averages. The GEFS ensemble mean predicts positive 500-hPa height anomalies across the entire western CONUS, while the ECMWF maintains weak troughing over the western central CONUS. The ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means maintain a stronger positive 500-hPa height anomaly over the eastern CONUS, centered off of the Atlantic coast. A trough and cyclonic flow is predicted to the west of Hawaii. Below normal temperatures continue to be slightly favored for much of the southern and eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska, consistent with raw dynamical model temperature forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are favored for the West in the 8-14 day period, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal temperatures are slightly favored for the Southern Plains and likely for much of the eastern CONUS, under persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal temperatures are likely for the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal precipitation is favored for Southeast Alaska and Mainland Alaska, excluding the North Slope, consistent with raw dynamical model precipitation forecast tools. Below normal precipitation is favored across much of the West in the week-2 period, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the central and eastern CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Probabilities exceed 50 percent from Texas across most of the lower half of the Mississippi Valley and western portions of the Ohio Valley, with enhanced surface moisture flow into these regions. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii consistent with the precipitation consolidation. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by increasing uncertainty among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070315 - 20150402 - 20040321 - 19970310 - 20250327 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070316 - 20040322 - 20150401 - 19970309 - 20070311 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 02 - 06 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 04 - 10 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$