763 FXUS06 KWBC 241908 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Tue March 24 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 03, 2026 Today's numerical models are in good agreement in depicting a fairly complex 500-hPa flow across North America and vicinity. A pair of ridges are forecast across eastern Siberia and south of the Aleutians, respectively. Downstream, anomalous troughing is forecast near the west coast of the CONUS. This trough has trended stronger relative to yesterday and is now expected to reach the West Coast and potentially move inland by the end of the period. Expansive ridging is forecast across most of the central and eastern CONUS with above normal mid-level heights expected for most areas east of the Rockies. However, deep anomalous troughing over eastern Canada is expected to be slow to move out, which would prevent the expansive ridge over the CONUS from overspreading the Northeast. Mid-level troughing is forecast in the vicinity of Hawaii, favoring an active pattern across the state. Above normal temperatures are favored for a broad area of the CONUS, encompassing most areas from the Rockies eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts. Very high confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) of above normal temperatures are indicated across the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas. The predicted mean position of the expansive ridge over the CONUS is very supportive of above normal temperatures for these regions. Conversely, confidence is reduced along the West Coast and vicinity. Today's trend toward a stronger trough has dramatically reduced chances of above normal temperatures for areas west of the Rockies relative to yesterday. Confidence is also low from the Great Lakes to much of the Northeast, as this area is forecast to be sandwiched between anomalous ridging over the east-central CONUS and a deep trough over eastern Canada. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for northern New England, closer to the anomalous trough predicted over eastern Canada. Below normal temperatures are also favored for southeastern Alaska due to predicted enhanced northerly mid-level flow. A slight tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for northwestern Alaska, underneath predicted above normal mid-level heights. Near normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii. Despite above normal SSTs observed in the adjacent Pacific, anomalous troughing and an active pattern may keep maximum temperatures down. Confidence has significantly increased for an active pattern to affect much of the western CONUS as a predicted mid-level trough in the vicinity has trended stronger. Above normal precipitation chances exceed 50 percent from central and northern California to the Northern Rockies, and adjacent areas of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Above normal precipitation is also favored for the Great Lakes, the northern half of the Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas, as potential moisture advection from the Gulf and predicted surface low pressure development on the lee side of the Rockies combine to promote an active pattern. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent for portions of the Midwest. Drier than normal conditions are slightly favored for parts of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, influenced by nearby ridging and surface high pressure. Below normal precipitation is also favored for northwestern Alaska, due to predicted mean low level offshore flow. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, due to predicted anomalous mid-level cyclonic flow. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 07 2026 During week-2, the anomalous trough predicted near the West Coast of the CONUS is expected to push inland. As this trough pushes inland, surface low pressure (potentially strong) is expected to form over the northern or central High Plains. Downstream, the expansive ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS is forecast to slowly progress east. This eastward progression of the ridge is expected to result in height rises across the East Coast, as the deep trough over eastern Canada slowly moves offshore. Weak cyclonic flow is forecast across much of Alaska ahead of a ridge predicted over eastern Siberia. Above normal mid-level heights are forecast for the Aleutians as well as the western Mainland, with near normal heights more likely across eastern sections of the state. Mean cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across Hawaii with strong easterly flow predicted at the lower levels. This combination is expected to promote a continued active pattern for much of the island chain. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the eastern two-third of the CONUS as an expansive ridge moves east. Confidence is very high (greater than 80 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the southern and central Appalachians and eastern areas of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as the predicted mean position of the ridge is very favorable for unseasonable warmth. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for parts of northern New England (particularly early in the period) due to the departing trough over eastern Canada. A cooling trend is favored for the western third of the CONUS as a mid-level trough is expected to move inland. As a result, probabilities of above normal temperatures are reduced relative to yesterday across this region. The potential for surface low pressure development over the central or northern High Plains also reduces confidence of above normal temperatures across the north-central CONUS. Below normal temperatures are modestly favored for southeastern Alaska underneath predicted weak cyclonic flow. A slight tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for extreme northwestern Mainland Alaska underneath predicted above normal mid-level heights. Above normal temperatures are also favored for the western Aleutians due to predicted ridging. The forecast for Hawaii tilts warm, due primarily to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. An increasingly active pattern is expected over the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Midwest as lee side cyclogenesis and increased moisture advection from the Gulf promotes increased precipitation amounts. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent across the western Great Lakes and adjacent areas of the Upper Mississippi Valley as moisture advection from the south and surface low pressure over the Plains are expected to promote increased precipitation across this area. Confidence has also increased for above normal precipitation across much of the West relative to yesterday, as models are generally trending stronger with the associated mid-level trough. Conversely, chances of above normal precipitation are generally reduced relative to yesterday across much of the Eastern Seaboard as the predicted mid-level ridge position over the eastern CONUS is supportive of a dry pattern. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for southeastern Alaska underneath weakly cyclonic mid-level flow. Drier than normal conditions are modestly favored for parts of northwestern Mainland Alaska due to predicted offshore low-level flow. An active pattern and associated increased chances of above normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii, as cyclonic mid-level flow is expected to persist. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement early in the period, offset by increasing model uncertainty later in week-2. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070313 - 20150401 - 20070318 - 20070308 - 20040319 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070314 - 20070309 - 20150401 - 20250325 - 20040319 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 30 - Apr 03, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 01 - 07 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$