989 FXUS06 KWBC 151901 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Sun March 15 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 25 2026 Today's numerical models are in good agreement in depicting highly amplified 500-hPa flow across North America and vicinity, generally consistent with the positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the negative phase of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. Below normal mid-level heights are predicted across most of the higher latitudes of North America stretching across most of Canada and Alaska. A pair of mid level troughs are forecast within this broad area of below normal heights, centered over the Gulf of Alaska and over eastern Canada. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast upstream of the Gulf of Alaska trough, centered over eastern Siberia, with impressive positive height departures of greater than +210 meters. The trough over eastern Canada is forecast to extend southward across New England and offshore of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts. Most of the remainder of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) is forecast to be dominated by expansive ridging, with mid-level heights predicted to be greater than 120 meters above normal from the Southwest to the Central Plains. Although still anomalously strong, today's model solutions depict a reduction in amplitude of this ridge. Mid-level troughing is forecast in the vicinity of Hawaii, leading to a potentially active pattern across the state. Expansive ridging supports above normal temperatures for most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS and extends to parts of the Southeast. The predicted anomalous strength of this ridge leads to exceptionally high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great Basin and Southern California. Near to below normal temperatures are more likely across the Great Lakes and East Coast due to predicted troughing in the vicinity. Across the eastern CONUS, the highest confidence for below normal temperatures is forecast over the Northeast, associated with strong troughing predicted over eastern Canada. Confidence for below normal temperatures is even higher across most of Alaska due to predicted deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska. Very high confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) of below normal temperatures is forecast for most of the southern half of the mainland, close to the predicted trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal temperatures are favored for the western Aleutians, associated with predicted strong anomalous ridging. Above normal temperatures are also favored for Hawaii, influenced by observed above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Pacific. The predicted expansive ridge and associated surface high pressure support widespread below normal precipitation across the majority of the CONUS. Confidence is high (ranging from a 50 to 70 percent chance) for below normal precipitation from the southwestern CONUS to the Central High Plains, where the influence of this ridge is expected to be the greatest. A secondary high confidence area (greater than 50 percent chance) of below normal precipitation is forecast for parts of the Southeast, due to predicted surface high pressure. Above normal precipitation is more likely across the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough over the Gulf of Alaska. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated along the CONUS/Canada border, from the western Great Lakes to eastern portions of the Northern Plains, associated with an expected enhanced mid-level height gradient between predicted ridging to the south and troughing to the north. Below normal precipitation is favored for most of western Alaska due to predicted mean offshore low-level flow. An active pattern is likely for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level trough. Confidence for above normal precipitation is high (greater than 60 percent chance) across the island chain. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on an amplified mid-level pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 29 2026 Confidence begins to wane during the week-2 period as the positive AO pattern predicted for the preceding 6 to 10 day period is generally expected to break down, particularly in the GEFS-based solutions. The end result of this potential transition is a lower amplitude mean 500-hPa pattern relative to both today's 6 to 10 day outlook and yesterday's week-2 outlook. The mean pattern still favors below normal heights across most of the higher latitudes of North America and above normal heights across most of the CONUS, as the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means are slower to weaken the positive AO pattern relative to the GEFS. Prominent high latitude troughs continue to be predicted for the Gulf of Alaska and over Atlantic Canada and strong ridging is forecast over eastern Siberia, albeit with reduced amplitude relative to the 6 to 10 day period. A strong blocking ridge is also forecast to develop southeast of Greenland, favoring trough persistence over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. Farther to the south and west, the amplitude of the mean ridge over the CONUS is forecast to weaken. However, the ridge is still expected to be expansive, with above normal mean mid-level heights stretching from coast to coast. Mid-level troughing is forecast to persist into week-2 across Hawaii, setting the stage for a potential long-duration active pattern across the island chain. Despite the reduced amplitude of the week-2 pattern, widespread above normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of the western and southern CONUS due to the expansive nature of the predicted ridge. Confidence for above normal temperatures is still very high (greater than 80 percent chance) over parts of the Southwest and the Four Corners Region, particularly early in the period. Conversely, models generally predict that the downstream trough over eastern Canada will be slow to move out, resulting in continued elevated chances of below normal temperatures across the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic. Below normal temperatures continue to be likely across most of Alaska and a cooling trend is favored for the Pacific Northwest, as the predicted trough over the Gulf of Alaska slowly progresses eastward. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of the western Aleutians, due to predicted persistent ridging. The temperature forecast for Hawaii tilts warmer than normal, consistent with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. With expansive ridging favored to dominate much of the CONUS well into week-2, below normal precipitation is favored across a large swath of the country from Southern California to the Central Plains. Below normal precipitation is also favored for much of the eastern CONUS, as surface high pressure is expected to predominate. A slight tilt toward near to above normal precipitation is indicated across much of the south-central CONUS due to the potential for low-level return flow from the Gulf. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest and adjacent areas of the Northern Rockies as well as Southeast Alaska, ahead of a slow moving mid-level trough predicted over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Dry conditions are likely for most of western Alaska due to predicted mean offshore flow. A prolonged active pattern is favored for Hawaii underneath predicted persistent cyclonic flow. Confidence for above normal precipitation remains high (greater than 50 percent chance) across eastern and central portions of the state with a greater than a 40 percent likelihood of above normal precipitation posted for the remainder of the island chain. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to a predicted high amplitude pattern early in the period offset by a potential pattern transition later in the period. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on March 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070314 - 20170302 - 19970310 - 19890304 - 20040318 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070313 - 20170302 - 19970309 - 20070318 - 19890305 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 21 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Mar 23 - 29 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$