804 FXUS06 KWBC 071902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Tue April 07 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 17 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period, with relatively small differences in the strength and location of anomalies and the underlying variations in the pattern through the period. The manual height blend of 500-hPa height forecasts is based on 0Z ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. All ensemble models and the manual blend predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the North Pacific, the Aleutians, and southwestern Mainland Alaska. Most models predict positive 500-hPa height anomalies across Mainland and Southeast Alaska. A weak trough and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands by all models. At the start of the period, a trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the interior western contiguous United States (CONUS). Mid-level heights then rise over the western CONUS, before a shortwave trough pushes into the Pacific coast later in the period. An amplified ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the northeastern CONUS at the start of the period progress eastward in all model solutions, before a ridge redevelops over the eastern central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and northwestern Mainland Alaska, under the predicted persistent ridge. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ensemble model temperature forecasts. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures for the western CONUS are moderated, due to a variable circulation pattern and weak average mid-level height anomalies. Above normal temperatures are likely over most of the eastern CONUS during the period, under a persistent ridge, while near to below normal temperatures are favored for the northern central CONUS, consistent with calibrated ECMWF model temperature forecasts. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures exceed 80 percent over parts of the central Appalachians, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii, excluding the island of Kauai, consistent with the temperature consolidation and ECMWF temperature forecasts. Above normal precipitation is favored across the Aleutians and central and northern Mainland Alaska, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model precipitation forecasts. Below normal precipitation is favored for the extreme south coast of Mainland Alaska, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. With a trough progressing into the Pacific coast of the CONUS later in the period, above normal precipitation is slightly favored across the western CONUS excluding climatologically arid areas of California and Arizona, consistent with most model tools. A drier start to the period reduces probabilities for above normal precipitation across the West relative to yesterday's 6-10 day outlook. Above normal precipitation is favored from the Southern Plains northeastward into the Central and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the western Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, and the Northeast, with enhanced moisture flow into these regions around surface high pressure to the east. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast Atlantic coast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Above normal precipitation is very likely for Hawaii, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to general agreement among ensemble means on the predicted amplified 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 21 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models predict a similar pattern to the 6-10 day forecasts, with some evolution of the predicted mid-level circulation pattern. A ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist over the North Pacific, with the GEFS predicting the ridge to be centered further west of the ECMWF forecast. The manual blend, weighting the ECMWF model greater than other models, places the ridge over the western Gulf of Alaska. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies extend across Mainland and Southeast Alaska in all model ensemble means and the manual blend. Downstream a weak trough is predicted to amplify during the period slightly to the west of the Pacific coast of the CONUS in all ensemble mean forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble predicts progression of this trough into the Pacific coast of the CONUS. A broad ridge and expansive positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across most of the CONUS from the interior West to the Atlantic coast in all ensemble means for the week-2 period, with the ECMWF ensemble mean predicting greater positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern CONUS than the Canadian and GEFS models. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored over the Aleutians, under the predicted ridge, and for the western Mainland Alaska, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for parts of southeastern Mainland Alaska and northern areas of Southeast Alaska, consistent with an automated blend of temperature forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the CONUS in the 8-14 day period, under a broad ridge in dynamical model forecasts. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the northern central CONUS and northern Maine, consistent with calibrated ECMWF temperature forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model temperature tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Aleutians and most of Mainland Alaska, excluding the south coast, consistent with calibrated model precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. Above normal precipitation is favored across most of the western CONUS, excluding small areas of the Desert Southwest and the central High Plains, ahead of a predicted trough and consistent with most precipitation tools. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are enhanced for the Southern Plains, with southerly moisture flow into this region. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the Central and Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the northern Great Lakes region, and northern New England, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Near normal precipitation is favored for remaining areas of the eastern CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and with increasing uncertainty in precipitation tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with model precipitation tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by some deamplification of the mid-level height pattern and uncertainty among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20130420 - 20210330 - 20200321 - 20030330 - 20040319 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20070317 - 20040318 - 20210330 - 20130420 - 20200321 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 13 - 17 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 15 - 21 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$