184 FXUS06 KWBC 272002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Tue January 27 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2026 The GEFS and ECENS indicate the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now peaking but this highly -AO is forecast to persist through at least early February. Remarkably, the GEFS maintains a -AO between -5 to -3 standard deviations for the next two weeks which would favor a prolonged duration of anomalous cold for the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The positive 500-hPa height anomalies at the higher latitudes of North America are likely to force another Arctic high to shift south from Canada to the Gulf Coast by the beginning of February. On February 2 and 3, the most anomalous cold is forecast to become focused across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Below-normal temperature probabilities exceed 60 percent from the Mid-Atlantic south to the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida where the ECENS has 5-day temperatures averaging near 10 degrees F below normal. There is an increased chance of near record or record lows for the Southeast on February 2. Anomalous snow cover likely across portions of the eastern CONUS heading into February also supports the large below-normal temperature probabilities. Enhanced below-normal temperature probabilities extend west to the Lower Mississippi Valley and north to southern New England with the high amplitude 500-hPa trough persisting. The ensemble mean solutions indicate that the anomalous cold across the eastern CONUS moderates on days 9 and 10 (Feb 5 and 6). The broad and strong 500-hPa ridge over the western CONUS favors above normal temperatures across this region along with the Northern to Central Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Due to excellent model agreement and continuity, above-normal temperature probabilities exceed 80 percent across the Northern High Plains, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and parts of California. A majority of the lower 48 states are likely to have a relatively dry start to February due to the amplified 500-hPa ridge over the West and a large area of surface high pressure centered along the Gulf Coast during this 5-day period. Based on a skill weighted consolidation of the GEFS and ECENS reforecasts, below-normal precipitation probabilities are largest (50 to 60 percent) across a large area of the West including much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California. Any East Coast storminess this weekend is forecast to time off by day 6, February 2, except perhaps eastern New England. Multi-model ensemble mean solutions seem to be converging on depicting a shortwave trough tracking across the south-central CONUS where above-normal precipitation is favored. The GEFS and CMCE are the wettest model solutions with more than one inch of precipitation for southeastern Texas and the western Gulf Coast. A northern stream shortwave trough, within the polar northwest flow aloft, slightly tilts the outlook towards the wetter side for parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Due to an increasing chance that the two shortwave troughs within the northern and southern streams interact along with a wet trend in the GEFS and CMCE models, near normal precipitation is favored for the Middle Mississippi Valley and more of the Ohio Valley. The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE agree on a deep trough over the Aleutians and an amplified 500-hPa ridge over western North America. The longwave pattern would lead to enhanced southwesterly flow which favors above-normal temperatures and precipitation for much of Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, large above-normal temperature probabilities are forecast for Hawaii. Near normal precipitation is forecast across the Big Island, while the 6-10 day outlook leans on the wetter side for the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to continued good model agreement and consistency. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 10 2026 The GEFS, ECENS and CMCE are in good agreement through the early part of week-2, but the CMCE begins to differ with the GEFS and ECENS by mid-February. The CMCE retrogrades the mid-level ridge axis well to the west over the north-central Pacific which leads to a decrease (increase) in 500-hPa heights across the Northern Great Plains (Southeast). In contrast to the CMCE model solution, the GEFS and ECENS maintain an amplified 500-hPa trough over the eastern CONUS with negative height anomalies extending south to Florida throughout week-2. Regardless of how exactly the longwave pattern evolves from early to mid-February, anomalous northerly flow favors below-normal temperatures across the eastern CONUS during this 7-day period. Given the good model agreement and consistency, below-normal temperature probabilities exceed 50 percent for areas along and east of the Appalachians with a 60 to 70 percent chance of below-normal temperatures forecast across parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies, associated with the amplified ridge aloft, favor above-normal temperatures from the West Coast to the Great Plains. A lack of snow cover across the Great Basin further increases the above-normal temperature probabilities to more than 80 percent for this region. Based on the analog tool derived from the manual 500-hPa height blend and with a predicted retrogression of the upstream 500-hPa ridge axis from the West Coast, the week-2 temperature outlook hedged on the colder side for the north-central CONUS. It should be noted that there are increasing signs that below-normal temperatures return to the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley by mid-February following a brief thaw to start the month. Anomalous northerly surface flow across the eastern CONUS coupled with the amplified 500-hPa ridge upstream along the West Coast favors a dry pattern for much of the lower 48 states during early February. The largest below-normal precipitation probabilities (50-60 percent) are forecast across southern Oregon and northern California due to the amplified mid-level ridge anchored along the West Coast. One or more northern (southern) stream shortwave troughs results in elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for parts of North Dakota and the Upper Mississippi Valley (Rio Grande Valley and Southwest). The week-2 outlook only leans slightly towards the drier side (33 to 40 percent chance) for much of the central and eastern CONUS as shortwave troughs in the northern and southern stream may interact early in week-2 and the amplified longwave 500-hPa trough may spawn low pressure development along the East Coast. The 500-hPa trough over the north-central Pacific is forecast to result in anomalous southwesterly flow with an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and precipitation for nearly all of Alaska. As the 500-hPa ridge along the West Coast amplifies northward during week-2, a drying trend is expected for southeastern Alaska by the second week of February. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies also support above-normal temperatures, especially across the northwestern islands. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools but some uncertainty with the diverging model solutions towards the end of week-2. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20240117 - 20140130 - 20140205 - 20210209 - 20170202 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140130 - 20150106 - 20170202 - 20140204 - 19940202 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 02 - 06 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 04 - 10 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$