871 FXUS06 KWBC 241902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri April 24 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2026 The 0Z GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE ensemble means are in fair agreement on the mid-level height pattern during the 6-10 day period. A mid-level ridge is forecast for much of Alaska, with the ridge axis near the Alaska-Yukon border. A mid-level trough upstream over the Bering Sea is forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska by some forecast guidance later in the period. This pattern would bring southerly mid-level flow into the state. Another, deeper trough is forecast over the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored south of CONUS over northern Mexico, the Gulf, and into Florida. In the West, zonal flow at the mid-levels appears like the mostly likely outcome at this time with a high amount of uncertainty. Weak positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over Hawaii, with mid-level troughing off to the east. With mid-level troughing predicted over eastern North America, below normal temperatures are favored across much of the eastern and central CONUS. Probabilities for below normal exceed 60% in the Ohio Valley. This is quite the departure from the much warmer than normal April in this region. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Florida Peninsula ahead of the anticipated frontal boundary. In the West, above normal temperatures are favored across much of the region with mid-level ridging to the north. In Alaska, southerly mid-level flow supports above normal temperatures across much of the state excluding the Alaska Peninsula. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures are likely. Above normal precipitation is favored over much of southwestern Mainland Alaska with enhanced southerly mid-level flow. Near normal precipitation is favored over the remainder of Alaska with dynamical and statistical guidance all favoring near normal. Below normal precipitation is favored across the northern tier of the CONUS from the Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley under the influence of mid-level ridging over the West and surface high pressure further east. A weak cut off low pressure over the southwestern U.S. brings increased chances for unsettled weather across the Four Corners regions and adjacent areas of the Great Basin and central and southern Rockies. A lingering frontal boundary stretches from the Southern Plains to the Southeast bringing a slightly increased chance of above-normal precipitation. The latest model guidance favors additional low pressure development along this stalled boundary early in the 6-10 day period. This front also brings elevated chances of above-normal precipitation to parts of the Northeast. In Hawaii, above normal precipitation is favored, consistent with dynamical guidance. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out 5, due to good agreement among the temperature and mid-level height forecast guidance, offset by increased uncertainty in the precipitation outlook. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08 2026 During week-2, tools have come into better agreement for a stronger trough moving over the Gulf of Alaska with mid-level ridging over western Canada. Forecast guidance maintains a blocking ridge over southern Greenland and a mid-level trough over the northeastern CONUS. In general, tools are favoring a weakly positive 500-hPa heights to develop over the western CONUS, but zonal flow is the favored flow pattern during week-2 across the western half of the country. In Hawaii, weakly above normal 500-hPa heights are forecast. With mid-level troughing over the north-central and northeastern CONUS continuing into week-2, below normal temperatures remain favored across much of the CONUS east of the Plains, excluding portions of Florida. Probabilities for below normal temperatures exceed 50% over portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. In the Plains, a transition zone is noted with below normal over the eastern Plains, near across the middle, and above normal over the High Plains. In the West, as in the 6-10 day period, above normal temperatures are favored across the region with weak ridging favored to develop. In Alaska, southerly mid-level flow supports above normal temperatures across much of the state. The exception is parts of the Alaska Peninsula where near normal temperatures are favored. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures are likely. The week-2 precipitation forecast is uncertain with low probabilities across the country. In the southwestern CONUS, a slight tilt towards above normal is favored with a weak shortwave potentially moving through the region. Any precipitation during the period, at this time of year, could tip the balance towards above normal. Below normal precipitation is favored for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, consistent with dynamical and statistical guidance. Above normal precipitation is favored along the East and Gulf Coasts due to a predicted lingering frontal boundary. Elsewhere across the CONUS, near normal precipitation is favored, with a great deal of uncertainty amongst the forecast guidance. In Alaska, above normal precipitation is favored for parts of south central Mainland with near normal favored across the rest of the state. This is consistent with the dynamical and statistical guidance. Meanwhile, in Hawaii, above normal precipitation is favored. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out 5, due to fair agreement in the mid-level height features over the eastern U.S. and the temperature forecast, offset by very poor agreement in precipitation guidance and continued uncertainty in the height forecast over Alaska despite slightly better agreement. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090424 - 20020430 - 19980503 - 20040508 - 20040416 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090424 - 20180427 - 20020501 - 20040415 - 20040507 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 30 - May 04, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 02 - 08 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$