014 FXUS06 KWBC 311902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Tue March 31 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period, with some differences in the strength and location of anomalies. All ensemble means predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the Bering Sea, with positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending across the North Pacific to the coasts of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. At the start of the period, a surface low moves into the coast of Southeast Alaska, while a ridge progresses across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from the West to the Northeast. Models predict a trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Northeast at the start of the period to quickly deamplify and be replaced by the ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the CONUS during the 6-10 day period are significantly greater in the ECMWF ensemble mean than the GEFS ensemble mean forecast. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted by all ensemble means to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted more in the manual blend of forecasts, due to recent model skill. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the Aleutian Islands and northwestern Mainland Alaska, under the predicted ridge. Below normal temperatures are favored for the Alaska Peninsula, southern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, consistent with bias-corrected model temperature tools. Above normal temperatures are likely for the western CONUS eastward into parts of the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, under persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for southern Texas, the Gulf Coast, and from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic coast, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model temperatures. Below normal temperatures are also favored for parts of the Northeast, under a trough early in the period. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, consistent with most dynamical model temperature tools. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the eastern Aleutians and southwestern coastal Mainland Alaska, under northerly mid-level flow. Near to above normal precipitation are slightly favored for remaining areas of Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, as a ridge pushes inland during the period. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Southwest into the Southern Plains, due to predicted southerly moisture flow into this region. Above normal precipitation is also favored along the Canadian border from Montana to Minnesota, consistent with ECMWF model precipitation. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Gulf and Southeast Atlantic Coasts, consistent with most dynamical model precipitation tools and the consolidation. As a ridge amplifies over the region, below normal precipitation is favored from the Central Mississippi Valley across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Northeast. Above normal precipitation is likely for all of Hawaii, ahead of a predicted trough. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to general agreement among ensemble means on the longwave 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools, particularly for the eastern CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2026 Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models show an evolution of the mid-level circulation pattern from the 6-10 day period forecasts, with eastward progression and amplification of a ridge over the eastern CONUS. A ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist over the Aleutians and Bering Sea. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies extend southeastward along the Pacific coast of North America in dynamical model forecasts, with positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending into the Pacific Northwest in the 0Z ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies extend across almost the entire CONUS in model forecasts, with a ridge and greater mid-level height anomalies over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS. The ECMWF ensemble mean predicts more extensive and greater magnitude positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the CONUS than the GEFS ensemble mean. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies continue to be forecast to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands in the 8-14 day period. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for most of the Aleutians and northwestern Mainland Alaska, under the predicted persistent ridge. Below normal temperatures are favored for the Alaska Peninsula, southeastern Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, consistent with bias-corrected model temperature tools. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the CONUS in the week-2 period, under primarily positive 500-hPa height anomalies and consistent with ECMWF model tools. Probabilities for above normal exceed 60 percent from Southern California into parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners region, consistent with most model temperature tools. The pattern over the eastern CONUS changes rapidly from the start of the period, with rising mid-level heights and an amplifying ridge over the region. Likely above normal temperatures extend from the Pacific coast to the Atlantic coast, with near normal slightly favored for South Texas, the Florida Peninsula, and northern Maine, consistent with the temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures continue to be likely for Hawaii in the week-2 period, consistent with most model tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored across most of Mainland Alaska, excluding the south coast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Below normal precipitation is increasingly favored for most of the west coast of the CONUS, as a ridge pushes eastward. Southerly moisture flow around high pressure leads to enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation for a large swath of the central CONUS, including the Southwest, Four Corners, High Plains, Great Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes region. Near to below normal precipitation is favored for most areas of the eastern CONUS, under a predicted ridge. Above normal precipitation is favored for the southern Florida Peninsula, consistent with ECMWF model precipitation tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be likely for Hawaii ahead of the predicted trough. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by increasing uncertainty among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20150402 - 20030401 - 20040318 - 20070315 - 20210331 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20150402 - 20040319 - 20070317 - 19970310 - 19890312 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 06 - 10 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 08 - 14 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$