336 FXUS07 KWBC 301940 PMD30D Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2026 The June 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are updated considering input from short-term (Days 1-7 precipitation), extended-range (6-10 Day and Week-2), and subseasonal (Weeks 3-4) forecasts. This includes dynamical model guidance from the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) for the 6-10 Day, Week-2, and Weeks 3-4 periods, and experimental extended monthly runs of the GEFSv12 and ECMWF. Impacts from background climate states, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are considered, as well as local impacts from coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture. An El Nino Advisory remains active, indicating present El Nino conditions with above-average equatorial SSTs and consistent atmospheric circulation anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Latest weekly SST departures in the Nino 3.4 region reached +1.2 degrees C, an increase from the +0.9 degrees C noted in the mid-month Outlook. Given that teleconnections are weaker in summer in general, we expect some potential moderation of probabilities given the active El Nino rather than it being the primary driver. The MJO has been alternating through periods of destructive and constructive interference with El Nino, and is currently weak. However, dynamical models are in better agreement on an amplifying MJO as it moves across the Pacific and constructively interferes with the El Nino base state. By early July, the MJO is expected to emerge in phases 6 and 7, with potential for further amplification. The MJO may moderate probabilities over the contiguous United States (CONUS) but is not considered a primary driver. Locally, coastal SSTs surrounding Alaska are largely below-average, except near the southwestern part of the state. Off the West Coast, below-average SSTs have expanded near the Northwest, juxtaposed by above-average SSTs off the Southwest. Along the East and Gulf Coasts, SSTs were previously below-average but have since warmed to above-average around Florida. Dynamical models (ECMWF and GEFSv12) favor troughing over Alaska and the western half of the CONUS very early in July, accompanied by ridging to the south and west of these centers and over the eastern half of the CONUS. However, the western trough is forecast to quickly move out of the region within the first three days of July. As July progresses, high pressure is forecast to build across the western and central CONUS, with ridging over the West by the end of July. Forecast confidence decreases toward mid-July due to diverging model solutions, with ECMWF favoring a more eastward ridge placement and GEFSv12 more westward. As the high pressure retrogrades, neutral or weakly below-average heights are possible over the East. Troughing is slightly more persistent over Alaska through at least the early parts of July, but the pattern weakens and retrogrades after about the middle of the month. Ultimately, this transient pattern leads to uncertainty in the monthly outlook, particularly for the eastern and central CONUS and Alaska. The updated Monthly Temperature Outlook maintains a pattern similar to the mid-month release, with slight modifications to reflect the latest guidance. Above-normal temperatures are indicated over the western third of the CONUS, across the southern tier, and along the East Coast to New England. Compared to the mid-month Outlook, above-normal temperature probabilities over the West are maintained but reach 50 to 60% chances instead of 60 to 70% chances. This slight moderation reflects the short-lived but cooler start to the month and uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the eventual western ridge. Early July troughing is forecast to shift out of the region quickly enough that a tilt toward below-normal temperatures is not favored for the month overall, and above-normal temperatures are still supported by monthly CFSv2, experimental monthly GEFSv12 guidance, and feedback from below-average soil moisture. Further to the south, probabilities for above-normal temperatures are lowered due to the potential moderating effects of above-normal precipitation. In contrast, probabilities are increased over the Southern Plains as compared to the mid-month Temperature Outlook, reaching 60 to 70% chances over parts of Texas. This heightened confidence is supported by above-average temperature trends, and consistent signals in monthly CFSv2, experimental GEFSv12 and ECMWF models. Along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, enhanced probabilities of 50 to 60% for above-normal temperatures are maintained, driven by the potential for extreme heat early in July associated with a strong subtropical high. An area of equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures stretches from the eastern Northern and Central Plains eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest, the northern Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Upper and Lower Great Lakes into the northern Ohio Valley. The transitory nature of the retrograding ridge and model differences in the ridge placement later in the month drive some of this uncertainty. Additionally, the potential emergence of an active MJO in phase 6/7, combined with El Nino conditions, could favor cooler temperatures over this region. However, because summer teleconnections are typically weaker and often overshadowed by long-term trends, EC is favored over below-normal probabilities. The temperature forecast for Alaska is complex due to an anticipated mid-month pattern shift. A weak tilt toward below-normal temperatures is indicated for southwest Alaska based on early-to-mid-July guidance and persistent below-normal SSTs, while above-normal temperatures are favored in the northeast, primarily supported by Week 3-4 model guidance and above-average temperature trends. Given the transient height pattern along with overall uncertainty by the second half of July, a somewhat unamplified precipitation pattern emerges as July progresses. Model guidance predicts spotty above- and below-normal precipitation across many areas, but primarily over the eastern CONUS, and lacks a consistent signal. One exception is the interior western CONUS, where an area of elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation stretches from the Northern Rockies to the Southwest, which is similar to the region depicted in the mid-month Outlook. These above-normal probabilities are supported by the monthly CFSv2, as well as the 6-10 Day, Week-2, and Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlooks. The active El Nino also favors shifting this precipitation further north and west than its typical July position. Additionally, because July precipitation climatology is quite dry over the northern portions of this region, it will not take much rainfall to tilt the monthly average into the above-normal category. Probabilities for below-normal precipitation are maintained over the Pacific Northwest from the mid-month Outlook, with minor modifications based on updated guidance. Namely, recent monthly CFSv2 forecasts extend the below-normal precipitation probability slightly further south into coastal Oregon. A weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation is also maintained from the mid-month Outlook over the north-central CONUS. This is driven by a persistent dry signal in the GEFSv12 spanning the 6-10 Day through Week 4 periods, which aligns with mid-month forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model ensemble. Similar reasoning supports a tilt toward below-normal precipitation over parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Both of these regional dry signals are additionally supported by weak but potential impacts from El Nino and the MJO. Precipitation forecasts over the eastern CONUS are weak and inconsistent across all timescales and tools as noted above; as such, EC is favored for a broad region across the central and eastern CONUS. However, a weak tilt toward above-normal precipitation is favored over New England, where the above-normal signal is most consistent across timescales and is supported by long-term trends. The precipitation forecast for Alaska is again complicated by a potential mid-July pattern shift as early-month troughing moves out of the region, and probabilities are overall weak. A slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation is maintained over northwestern Alaska, driven by long-term trends, the NMME, and the C3S. A weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation over the southeastern mainland and Southeast Alaska is also maintained, but has been expanded westward, reflecting Week 3-4 guidance that favors a broader area of below-normal precipitation. ****************************************************************************** ***** Previous mid-month discussion below ***** ****************************************************************************** The July 2026 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are primarily based on dynamical models, local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, decadal trends, and land surface conditions. Equatorial SSTs are above-average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with the latest weekly SST departures in the Nino3.4 region reaching 0.9 degrees Celsius above-average. An El Nino Advisory is active, indicating that El Nino conditions are present and atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Nino. Although an El Nino Advisory is active, its influence on the July 2026 Outlooks is considered minor because the episode recently emerged and summer teleconnections are typically weak. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which had been moving eastward into the Western Hemisphere, has recently weakened, though models suggest it could reemerge over the Western Pacific in early July but disagree on the potential amplitude. Due to model uncertainty and weak summer teleconnections, the MJO and El Nino serve as secondary factors to adjust probabilities rather than primary drivers. Additional guidance includes the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model ensemble, monthly forecasts from the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), an experimental multiple linear regression (MLR) tool which estimates the influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), MJO, and decadal trends , and a consolidation that includes influences of ENSO, decadal trends , and calibrated NMME output. Weeks 3-4 forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and CFSv2 models that cover the period to about mid-July are also considered. Above-normal temperatures are favored across a large portion of the western Contiguous United States (CONUS), stretching across the southern tier, and along much of the East Coast to New England. Probabilities are most enhanced over the interior West, reaching 60 to 70% chances of above-normal temperatures. Models depict remarkable consistency regarding this probability, with both the NMME and C3S ensembles favoring this signal, as well as consistency across daily runs of the CFSv2. Furthermore, this signal is reinforced by below-average soil moisture, which can enhance above-normal temperatures, and above-average decadal temperature trends. The early part of July is also forecast to be above-normal as depicted in the Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook released this past Friday. Similar reasoning supports the enhanced above-normal probabilities that stretch into the Southwest and Texas; however, probabilities are comparatively lower there due to the chance of above-normal precipitation and weaker model probabilities. Probabilities are also enhanced (50 to 60% chances) over coastal parts of the Gulf States and into the Carolinas. Models were again consistent on the above-normal temperatures over the coastal parts of the Gulf States, and the chance of early July extreme temperatures along with dry soils over the Mid-Atlantic supports the northward extent of these higher probabilities. Persistently cooler SSTs moderates probabilities toward New England, though a weak tilt toward above-normal temperatures is still favored. An area of Equal Chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures is indicated from the eastern half of the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes, stretching southward to parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley regions. Contrary to the consistent signals for above-normal temperatures over the remainder of the CONUS, this region had lower probabilities in models, with CFSv2 predicting weakly enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperatures in some of the prior daily runs, though inconsistently. Moreover, though the influence from El Nino is weak in summer, it may still slightly increase the chances of below-normal temperatures. Given that the potential for below-normal temperatures stemming from El Nino is typically weak and CFSv2 shows inconsistency in this signal, a tilt toward EC is favored rather than below-normal. Tools are mixed over Alaska, however, a weak above-normal signal emerges from the models despite inter-model spread. In addition, though weak, the summer influence from a strong El Nino is toward above-normal temperatures, and decadal trends lean above-normal. Despite the mixed dynamical model forecasts, a weak tilt toward above-normal temperatures (33 to 40% chance) is indicated over the interior mainland of Alaska and Southeast Alaska. EC surrounds this weak probability due to the potential for moderation of temperatures given persistent below-average SSTs surrounding Alaska. Compared to temperatures, signals in models and tools are more mixed when considering precipitation. As such, probabilities are overall low and there are larger areas of EC. However, a few areas of consistency stand out when reviewing all of the support. A broad area of enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities stretches from the Southwest northward through parts of the Intermountain West and Central and Southern Rockies and into southern parts of Idaho and western Wyoming. The positioning of this above-normal probability over the western CONUS is consistent with an El Nino summer, which can shift this precipitation pattern northward and westward of its climatological position. While El Nino summers, particularly during an emerging event, can tilt toward below-average precipitation over southern Arizona, models from the NMME, C3S, and CFSv2 favor above-normal precipitation extending to the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico. The Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook also favors above-normal precipitation across this entire region; thus, probabilities are damped but remain above-normal rather than EC or below-normal. Dynamical models including C3S, NMME, and CFSv2 favor below-normal precipitation over the North-Central CONUS, though with weak probabilities, and this is also supported by below-average precipitation trends. Similar reasoning supports the tilt toward below-normal precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. An area of increased above-normal precipitation chances is indicated just south of the Great Lakes, including much of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Middle Mississippi Valleys, which is supported by dynamical models and above-average precipitation trends . Over Alaska, tools were again quite mixed and did not show much of a consistent signal. However, a slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation emerges in NMME and C3S over the northwestern part of the state, additionally supported by the OCN tool. The weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation over southeastern mainland and Southeast Alaska is primarily supported by dynamical model agreement. FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. The next monthly outlook...for Aug ... will be issued on Thu Jul 16 2026 These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. $$