042 FXUS07 KWBC 151231 PMD30D Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2026 The November 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based on dynamical models, local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, El Nino teleconnections, and decadal trends. Guidance incorporates individual models and multi-model ensembles (MME) from the Copernicus Climate System (C3S) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), alongside probability anomaly correlation (PAC) calibrated NMME forecasts and statistical tools blending SSTs and trends. Short-term early November forecasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models are utilized, along with monthly forecasts from CFSv2 and the experimental beta version of the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) model. El Nino is expected to be the dominant climate driver, overshadowing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), though localized SST influences are possible. Dynamical model forecasts closely align with the expected El Nino teleconnection for November. However, short-term fluctuations in the pattern can occur, adding to uncertainty in some areas. Furthermore, while current El Nino conditions are forecast to strengthen, November can still be a transition month for ENSO impacts for some regions, with teleconnections strengthening through the winter months. The November 2026 Temperature Outlook depicts enhanced above-normal probabilities across the northern two-thirds of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) and along both coasts. Overall, models and tools favor a warmer northern tier of the CONUS, particularly over Washington and the interior Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes where probabilities are highest in the Outlook. Probabilities are damped over Oregon due to neutral SST anomalies. However, a southerly gradient toward above-average SSTs maintains a tilt toward above-normal along the West Coast. Probabilities are also weaker over Montana and North Dakota where diving troughs may introduce cooler spells. Inter-model spread increases uncertainty over New England and other areas where probabilities are comparatively lower. Equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures are indicated over the Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley, including parts of the Central Plains and Intermountain West. While El Nino typically supports below-normal temperatures over the Southern Plains and Southwest, inconsistent model signals regarding the placement and strength of any below-normal temperatures prompt a tilt toward EC. For Alaska, enhanced probabilities transition from near-normal in the west to above-normal across the east, the southeast Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. Monthly models and tools and early November dynamical model forecasts are in very good agreement on above-normal temperatures over much of eastern Alaska, aligning with El Nino teleconnections, long-term temperature trends, and above-average coastal SSTs to the south. Western Alaska carries higher uncertainty, with most models showing weakening probabilities, EC, or isolated transitions toward below-normal temperatures. This results in an EC forecast for the remainder of the state, aside from a small NMME-based near-normal area on the west coast. The November 2026 Precipitation Outlook indicates enhanced above-normal probabilities across much of the southern US and the East Coast, with below-normal precipitation favored from the northern Intermountain West into parts of the Northern Plains, as well as parts of the Great Lakes. Model agreement is exceptionally high over the Southeast, with MMEs showing greater than 70% chances of above-normal precipitation in isolated areas. Accordingly, 60 to 70% probabilities are forecast for parts of the region. The above-normal precipitation extends up the East Coast, but increasing inter-model spread over New England supports a transition to EC. Similarly, disagreement regarding the northward extent of precipitation along the West Coast and central Plains results in EC designations, as location is difficult to pinpoint at this lead time amid high model spread. The western below-normal precipitation signal remains spatially consistent and aligns with El Nino, though some models expand it weakly toward the coast. However, uncertainty over the Pacific Northwest remains high enough to warrant EC along the coast. The eastern below-normal signal is most consistent over the Great Lakes, though some models like CFSv2 extend it further south toward the Gulf States. Over Alaska, a weak trend-based tilt toward below-normal precipitation covers the southwestern mainland and parts of the Aleutians, with elevated above-normal chances along the northern coast. EC is favored for the rest of the state due to weak, inconsistent model signals and November's status as an ENSO transition month before below-normal teleconnections become prevalent later in winter. FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. An updated monthly outlook... for Nov will be issued on Sat October 31 2026 These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. $$