129 FXUS07 KWBC 312000 PMD30D Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026 The latest weekly observations from the Equatorial Pacific indicate that negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nio 3.4 region continue to diminish. The most recently observed Nio 3.4 index currently stands at -0.3 degrees Celsius as compared to -0.8 degrees Celsius when the mid-month outlook was released. Moreover, equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are at its most positive value in at least a year. These observations are consistent with the current El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook which forecasts a 75 percent chance of a transition from La Nia to the neutral phase during this current January-February-March (JFM) period. Meanwhile, dynamical models are in good agreement in continuing the current long duration negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) event well into February. The combination of ENSO neutral conditions and a negative AO is among the most favorable scenarios for widespread Arctic air outbreaks in the Contiguous United States (CONUS), especially east of the Rockies. For the first week of February, dynamical models forecast a series of mid-level shortwave troughs rotating through mean cyclonic flow across the eastern CONUS, while ridging dominates the West and mainland Alaska. Anomalous troughing is forecast in early February across the northeastern Pacific. As we approach the middle of February, CPC's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both depict strong anomalous ridging near Davis Strait, typical of a negative AO pattern. This negative AO pattern would act to maintain widespread anomalous troughing across the eastern US through much of the first half of the month. Meanwhile, a significant pattern shift is forecast across the West and Alaska as the ridge over western North America is forecast to break down significantly around the middle of the month, corresponding to a predicted weakening of the currently positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. During the latter half of February, CPC's weeks 3-4 outlooks forecast strong positive mid-level heights to persist over Davis Strait and Baffin Bay, suggestive of a long duration negative AO throughout most of the month. The forecast pattern also depicts a retrogression of this ridge to the southwest and an expansion mid-level troughing across most areas of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Low amplitude flow is generally depicted across the West. The ridging forecast over mainland Alaska early in the month is forecast to continue to flatten later in February, with positive height anomalies becoming more focused over the Aleutians. Due to the combination of the forecast transition to ENSO neutral conditions and the prospect of a prolonged negative AO pattern, below normal temperatures are favored for almost the entire eastern third of the CONUS. Probabilities of below normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across the Mid-Atlantic and adjacent areas of the Appalachians, Northeast, Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes, where troughing is expected to be most persistent. Anomalous snow cover may also contribute to increased chances of colder than normal conditions, especially early in the month. As troughing across mid-latitude North America is generally forecast to expand westward later in the month, increased chances of below normal temperatures extends westward to the Upper Mississippi Valley and eastern areas of the Northern Plains. Additionally, with the transition to ENSO neutral conditions becoming more likely and with increased confidence of a negative AO continuing into much of February, mean below normal temperatures are favored for the Southeast, representing a change from the mid-month outlook. Conversely, increased chances of above normal temperatures are indicated for most of the western CONUS, with the greatest confidence (more than 50 percent chance) of warmer than normal conditions focused on parts of the Great Basin and adjacent areas of the Southwest. Above normal temperatures are most likely across the West early in the month before a potential significant pattern change during the middle of the month. Complicating matters is the potential of a cut-off low near the southwestern US early in the month. This cut-off low, should it materialize, may promote warm air advection ahead of it. Therefore, a slight tilt toward above normal temperatures also expands eastward to the Southern Plains, consistent with WPC's short term forecasts and CPC's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. Above normal temperatures are favored for the southern half of Alaska due to predicted ridging and above normal heights, especially during the first half of the month. Anomalous ridging forecast in early February leads to increased chances of below normal precipitation across much of the West from California to the Great Basin, Central Rockies, and Central Plains. As this ridge potentially breaks down toward the middle of the month, this may open the door to increased Pacific flow later in February. Therefore a slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated from northern parts of the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies. This slight tilt toward above normal precipitation also extends eastward across the Northern Tier to the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, as multiple shortwave troughs and associated frontal boundaries are possible for these areas underneath predicted large scale cyclonic flow. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Southeast, as predicted mean northerly mid-level flow inhibits widespread moisture advection into the area during the early to middle parts of February. Equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above normal precipitation is forecast for all remaining areas east of the Mississippi due to uncertainty regarding the details of the potential evolution of individual shortwave troughs within the predicted mean larger scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for parts of South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, near the southern periphery of the predicted mean trough over eastern and central North America. Above normal precipitation is also favored for the southern half of Alaska as moist southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the region for much of the month. ****************************************************************************** ***** Previous mid-month discussion below ***** ****************************************************************************** The February 2026 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Nia Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. La Nia conditions are present but are likely (75 percent chance) to transition to the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral phase during the current January-February-March (JFM) season. The latest weekly Nio 3.4 index was at -0.8 degrees Celsius, which is still in La Nia territory. However, at depth, a pool of warmer than normal water has been steadily expanding eastward from the western Pacific, consistent with a potential transition to ENSO neutral conditions. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the real-time multivariate MJO index has been increasing in recent days in the Western Pacific. By the start of February, most of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members predict this emerging MJO event to propagate to the Western Hemisphere/Africa or the Indian Ocean. Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly negative in early January (although both have trended closer to zero in the past few days). The Pacific North America (PNA) index has transitioned from the negative to the positive phase during the first half of January. Combined natural analog composites derived from the recent evolution of these tropical (ENSO and MJO) and extratropical (AO, NAO, and PNA) drivers depict a 500-hPa flow pattern dominated by anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific, off the west coast of North America. Downstream troughing is favored over the west-central CONUS while above normal heights are more likely across the Southeast. Weakly below normal heights are favored across the western Bering Sea. This combined natural analog composite is remarkably similar to trends during the last 15 years, which also favor increased ridging across the northeastern Pacific and the Southeast, and below normal heights over the northern tier of the west-central CONUS. Natural analog composites, trends, and dynamical guidance from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Forecast Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input and statistical guidance) form the basis of the February outlooks. The latest CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the ECMWF, Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the CFSv2 also contributed. Antecedent conditions such as extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies were also considered where appropriate. Statistical guidance is supportive of potential widespread anomalous cold air outbreaks across much of the Lower 48 states during February. However, dynamical model guidance is much warmer, particularly across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. This dichotomy between the colder statistical and warmer dynamical model guidance results in increased uncertainty in the February temperature outlook. However, given the strong agreement between recent trends, ENSO, MJO, and extratropical analogs on the potential for anomalous cold across much of the northern and central CONUS, below normal temperatures are favored for much of these regions. The greatest confidence for below normal temperatures (40 to 50 percent chance) is indicated for the Northern High Plains, where statistical guidance shows the strongest signal. Conversely, statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in favoring above normal temperatures across the southeastern CONUS, with probabilities of warmer than normal conditions exceeding 50 percent across the Florida Peninsula. A second, but weaker, area of enhanced above normal temperature probabilities is posted for parts of the Southwest and Southern California due primarily to dynamical model guidance. Above normal SSTs off the west coast of the CONUS may also assist in increasing chances of above normal temperatures for coastal locations of Southern California. Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures were kept weak for this region as statistical guidance is much less supportive of increased warmth relative to dynamical model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored across western Alaska due to very good support from statistical guidance. However, dynamical model support is relatively weak, so probabilities of above normal temperatures are only modestly increased. Conversely, below normal temperatures are weakly favored for most of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern Mainland, consistent with C3S model output with some support from natural analog composites (especially across Southeast Alaska). Although the current La Nia is likely to transition to ENSO neutral at some point during JFM 2026, statistical and dynamical model precipitation guidance still generally reflect a La Nia signature for the month of February. Above normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies, Northern High Plains, and parts of the Pacific Northwest southeastward to northern portions of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. The greatest likelihood of above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated across parts of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where both statistical and dynamical model guidance is in good agreement. A second region where above normal precipitation is favored is the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, adjacent areas of the interior Northeast, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, consistent with La Nia Composites as well as with dynamical model guidance, especially the C3S. Typical of La Nia, below normal precipitation is more likely across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. The forecast favoring drier than normal weather across these two regions has good dynamical model support from the NMME. Above normal precipitation is favored for all of western Alaska. Dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in depicting increased chances of above normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska while statistical guidance generally supports an extension of this signal southward to southwestern Alaska. Conversely, a tilt of probabilities toward below normal precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern Mainland due primarily to dynamical model support, especially from the C3S. FORECASTER: Scott Handel The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. The next monthly outlook...for Mar ... will be issued on Thu Feb 19 2026 These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. $$