265 FXUS07 KWBC 282000 PMD30D Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2026 The updated March 2026 outlook is adjusted after reviewing the latest dynamical model guidance across time scales from the short-range to the subseasonal-range as well as the latest status of the MJO and conditions in the stratosphere. The most current land surface states such as soil moisture and snowpack also played a role in the updated outlook. The latest inspection of the MJO strength and phase and model forecasts continues to show considerable uncertainty. Anomalous tropical convection and wind fields in the Indo-Pacific region continues to be impacted by other coherent subseasonal variability other than the MJO (i.e., atmospheric Kelvin and Equatorial Rossby waves) as well as a somewhat more persistent mode. In addition, model forecasts of the RMM index vary considerably from more organized eastward propagation and moderate amplitude for the NCEP models (i.e. CFS, GEFS) to weaker less organized predictions from ECMWF. The signals from dynamical model guidance during the first half of March are consistent and strong for both temperature and precipitation for the U.S., it is unclear whether any teleconnection from the Tropics, if it were to occur, would have a substantial impact on the circulation later in the month and so the eventual observed monthly mean temperature and total precipitation amounts. Although a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is forecast by both the GEFS and ECMWF in early March, it is predicted to be short-lived and current forecasts for the next two weeks of polar cap 500-hPa height anomalies do not strongly indicate a connection to the troposphere at this time. Consistent with this are forecasts of a +AO index over at least the next two weeks. Below-normal soil moisture conditions associated with areas of severe and extreme drought in the lower CONUS contribute to some degree to probabilities of above-normal temperatures. Remaining snowpack in some areas (Upper Peninsula of Michigan and the Northeast) increase uncertainty in the temperature forecast and temper odds for above-normal temperatures in these areas as does a few days of below-normal temperatures at the start of the month. A constructed analogue forecast based on soil moisture conditions also indicates a slight tilt towards below-normal temperatures in the Northeast. The temperature outlook is largely unchanged from the previous mid-month outlook with the continued main message being favored above-normal temperatures for most of the CONUS. Forecast coverage of above-normal temperatures is increased across some areas of the northern tier of the CONUS including the Northeast. Previously forecast small areas of favored below-normal temperatures are removed and a reduction in the odds of warmer than normal conditions is applied for the west-central U.S. due to favored troughing at times during the first half of the month. The highest odds for above-normal temperatures is shifted slightly eastward now focusing across the central and southern Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and Southeast. Robust troughing, lower 500-hPa heights and so anomalous northerly mean flow favors below-normal temperatures for most of Alaska, although confidence is lower along the northern and western coastal areas of the state. The forecast is mainly unchanged from the previous outlook. For precipitation, the updated outlook also remains consistent - to first order - with the previous mid-month outlook. Medium- and extended-range dynamical model guidance strongly supports a significant increase in probabilities and coverage for the previously highlighted above-normal precipitation region in the Ohio Valley, central Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. The region is increased to extend from the southern Plains to most of the Mississippi Valley, all of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and far western parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High odds are forecast for the central Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Favored below-normal precipitation remains for the extreme Southeast and most of Florida, while elevated odds for below-normal precipitation across the western U.S. in the previous outlook has been reduced in coverage in the update. The Alaska precipitation outlook is one of low confidence. Equal Chances (EC) for either of the three categories is forecast for most of the state with the exception of a slight tilt toward above- (below-) normal precipitation for Southeast Alaska and an area in the central portion of the state, respectively. ******************************************************************************** ****** Previous mid-month discussion ****** ******************************************************************************** A major pattern shift occurred across the greater North America region just prior to the middle of February. High latitude blocking and penetrations of Arctic air in various regions of the mid-latitudes of the northern Hemisphere (i.e. strong -AO projection) dominated the second half of January and early February. The strong block impacting the far north Atlantic-Greenland region, etc. dissipated and allowed more progressive flow and an easing of the strong trough across eastern North America. In mid February, troughing replaced a persistent ridge near the West coast of North America and this has resulted in a much more stormy, active pattern across much of the CONUS. Extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance indicates the continuation of a progressive pattern entering early March with a northward shifted storm track across the CONUS to first order - consistent with a +AO and -PNA - quite opposite of what was observed in early-mid February. Positive 500-hPa height departures associated with northward shifted westerlies and more air of Pacific, maritime origin entering the CONUS supports primarily above-normal temperatures for much of the interior U.S. as forecast by ECMWF, GEFS and JMA subseasonal model guidance into mid-March. The forecast in the extended range and into early March is reasonably consistent with La Nina conditions - ridging/blocking in the north Pacific near the Date Line and troughing downstream along the coast of western North America - as anomalous enhanced convection remains observed near Indonesia. The MJO has not been all that coherent in recent weeks as other modes of coherent tropical subseasonal variability have focused the anomalous enhanced convection at the Maritime continent. Model RMM forecasts are mixed with any MJO strengthening and organized eastward propagation. The ECMWF forecast is for no clear organized signal, while the GEFS indicates some potential eastward propagation but with large forecast spread. The state of the MJO will be reviewed prior to the end of the month update. Other factors considered in preparation of the outlook are potential remaining snowpack in parts of the Northeast, extensive severe and extreme drought conditions for much of the Southeast U.S. and southern Great Plains and the snow drought along the northern tier of the U.S. from the northern and central Plains eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes. The above climate factors and extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance support favored above-normal temperatures for much of the CONUS for areas of the southern Far West, Southwest, most of the Rockies eastward to include the majority of the central CONUS and Ohio Valley and Southeast U.S. The highest odds for above-normal temperatures are forecast for portions of the south-central Plains and Mississippi Valley where the majority of forecast guidance and tools are in best agreement. Odds for above-normal temperatures are less for parts of the western U.S. with a small area of slightly elevated odds for below-normal temperatures highlighted for parts of the Pacific Northwest. A sharp demarcation in the forecast anomalous height pattern in central North America may allow colder air intrusions into the northern U.S. and so a narrow region of slightly favored below-normal temperatures is highlighted for parts of the northern Plains at this time. Equal-Chances (EC) for above-, near-, and below-normal monthly mean temperatures is forecast for the Northeast where some troughing and snowpack increases uncertainty. Strong ridging forecast by model guidance west of Alaska supports an amplified trough over much of the state with strong anomalous northerly flow and so below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of Alaska. For northern and northwestern Alaska, trends in below-normal sea ice coverage and above-normal near coast SSTs keep these areas EC for the mid-month outlook, although this forcing is considerably weaker this February than in previous years. For precipitation, a northward shifted storm track entering March as indicated by extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance favors below-normal precipitation from central California southward and eastward to the central and southern High Plains. Current above-normal precipitation across the west is forecast to shift north in the coming week and elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest eastward along and just south of the Canadian border. This area meets another region of favored above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley consistent with residual La Nina and potential MJO influenced precipitation, along with favored below-normal precipitation in the extreme Southeast CONUS. Anticipated anomalous northerly flow across Alaska favors a slight tilt toward below-normal precipitation for areas of central and southern Mainland Alaska. FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. The next monthly outlook...for Apr ... will be issued on Thu Mar 19 2026 These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. $$