PhD RESEARCH AND RESULTS
A Study of Cool Season Severe Weather in the Southeast United States


Overview and Outline Climatology
 Composites
Case Studies AMS Meetings

 
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OVERVIEW AND OUTLINE
General Overview
Task Outline
CLIMATOLOGY
Hour of Day vs. Month of Year plots
Statistical breakdown of tornado database (Nov.-Mar., 80-94W, 25-36.5N)
        -->      Charleston NWS Area Tornado Climatology
Climatology Soundings
Surface Station Climatology plot
COMPOSITES
Mean Seasonal Conditions of  10% least active cool-seasons
    By Total Number of Tornadoes
    By Number of >=F2 Tornadoes
    By Deviation from Linear Trendline (fitted to plot of number of tornado reports per winter season)
Mean Seasonal Conditions of  10% most active cool-seasons
    By Total Number of Tornadoes
    By Number of >=F2 Tornadoes
    By Deviation from Linear Trendline (as above)
Composite Pilot Balloon Calculations
    Station Map
    Climatology of 1000 hPa winds (1947-1957, Cool Season months) - 3Z, 9Z, 15Z, 21Z
   
Comopsite hodographs: All Tornado Episodes    By Hour
    9Z - 21Z difference plots: V-wind (1000 m)    Wind Speed (1000 m)    0-1 km shear    0-1 km meridional shear
      Sample Climatology Hodographs: All Stations    MIA    BRO    TPA    BNA    TYS    MEM
  COMING SOON...Composite Surface Calculations

'Storm-Relative' Composites (from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data)
            Composites created based on lat/lon of first tornado of each tornado episode 1950-2001 (tornado
                episode consists of all tornadoes which are reported within 24 h of each other)
    Temporal distribution of tornado reports
                Percent Tornadoes per hour after 1st report
                Cumulative Distribution of tornado reports

    Spatial distribution of tornado reports
                All
                0-6Z
                6-12Z
                12-18Z
                18-0Z

    Total/geostrophic/ageostrophic wind and acceleration
                Hodographs:    Total wind        Geostrophic wind        Ageostrophic wind
                Flat maps (925 hPa):  Total wind    Geostrophic wind    Ageostrophic wind    ageo. scaled x 10^1    dv/dt
                Flat maps (850 hPa):  Total wind    Geostrophic wind    Ageostrophic wind    ageo. scaled x 10^1    dv/dt
   NEW!!! Ageostrophic wind (contribution of terms) comparison - uses 2d inertial advective term unless otherwise specified
                            Note: Isallobaric term is calculated from a one-sided 6-hourly height fall
                Sample case: 921122 (0-6Z case)  
                    925 hPa ageostrophic wind (pink= V-Vg or 'observed', black=calculated)
                    925 hPa ageostrophic wind- contribution by term (Red=Isallobaric, Blue=local dVa/dt, Green=2d Inertial Advective, Black=Total)
                    925 hPa Isallobaric wind and heights
                    925 hPa ageostrophic wind= (pink = V-Vg, black=calculated using 3D inertial advective term)

                    850 hPa ageostrophic wind (pink= V-Vg or 'observed', black=calculated)
                    850 hPa ageostrophic wind- contribution by term (Red=Isallobaric, Blue=local dVa/dt, Green=2d Inertial Advective, Black=Total)
                    850 hPa Isallobaric wind and heights


                    300 hPa ageostrophic wind (pink= V-Vg or 'observed', black=calculated)
                    300 hPa ageostrophic wind- contribution by term (Red=Isallobaric, Blue=local dVa/dt, Green=2d Inertial Advective, Black=Total)
                    300 hPa Isallobaric wind and heights

    0000-0600 UTC Start Time (n=174)
                6-panel plot (a) 500 mb height, vorticity, vort. advection, (b) 200 mb height, isotachs, (c) 850 mb      
                        height, temperature, temp. advection, (d) 1000 mb height, 1000-500 mb thickness, 700 mb Rel. Hum,
                        (e) 700 mb height, vertical motion, (f) 850 mb theta-e, 850-500 mb lapse rate, 850 mb winds, cross
                        section line  CLICK HERE for an ANIMATION

                Cross section (isotachs, theta-e, vertical motion, divergence, circulation)
                Sounding at tornado location
                 T-Test against weighted translated climatology
     0600-1200 UTC Start Time (n=130)
                6-panel plot (a) 500 mb height, vorticity, vort. advection, (b) 200 mb height, isotachs, (c) 850 mb      
                        height, temperature, temp. advection, (d) 1000 mb height, 1000-500 mb thickness, 700 mb Rel. Hum,
                        (e) 700 mb height, vertical motion, (f) 850 mb theta-e, 850-500 mb lapse rate, 850 mb winds, cross
                        section line
 CLICK HERE for an ANIMATION
                Cross section (isotachs, theta-e, vertical motion, divergence, circulation)
                Sounding at tornado location
                T-Test against weighted translated climatology
    1200-1800 UTC Start Time (n=192)
                 6-panel plot (a) 500 mb height, vorticity, vort. advection, (b) 200 mb height, isotachs, (c) 850 mb      
                        height, temperature, temp. advection, (d) 1000 mb height, 1000-500 mb thickness, 700 mb Rel. Hum,
                        (e) 700 mb height, vertical motion, (f) 850 mb theta-e, 850-500 mb lapse rate, 850 mb winds, cross
                        section line
CLICK HERE for an ANIMATION
                Cross section (isotachs, theta-e, vertical motion, divergence, circulation)
                Sounding at tornado location
                T-Test against weighted translated climatology
    1800-0000 UTC Start Time (n=327)
                 6-panel plot (a) 500 mb height, vorticity, vort. advection, (b) 200 mb height, isotachs, (c) 850 mb      
                        height, temperature, temp. advection, (d) 1000 mb height, 1000-500 mb thickness, 700 mb Rel. Hum,
                        (e) 700 mb heigh
t, vertical motion, (f) 850 mb theta-e, 850-500 mb lapse rate, 850 mb winds, cross
                        section line
CLICK HERE for an ANIMATION
                Cross section (isotachs, theta-e, vertical motion, divergence, circulation)
                Sounding at tornado location
                T-Test against weighted translated climatology
  COMING SOON...Ageostrophic wind calculations for each composite
CASE STUDIES
22-23 February 1998
    Vorticity Budget at 950 hPa at 23/0000 UTC (Using RUC analysis)
                local tendency
                horizontal advection
                vertical advection
                planetary advection
                stretching
                tilting
                friction (calculated as a residual)
                950 hPa vertical motion
                Surface temp/dewpoint plot
  COMING SOON...More on this case AND null case of 29 Nov. 2001.
 
AMS Meetings


SLS 2002
Abstract
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Mesoscale 2003

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WAF 2004
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 SLS 2004
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