The weather observed at BELMAR/FARMDALE, NJ (KBLM) at 09:55 AM EDT was: The skies were cloudy. Temperature: 63F ( 17C) Dewpoint: 61F ( 16C) Relative Humidity: 94% Winds from the NE (050 degs) at 10 mph. Altimeter:29.88 inches of mercury. The prevailing visibility was 7 miles. KBLM 221055Z AUTO 04007KT 1SM OVC003 16/14 A2989 RMK AO1 P0001= KBLM 221115Z AUTO 03008KT 1 3/4SM OVC003 16/14 A2989 RMK AO1= KBLM 221135Z AUTO 04008KT 1 1/4SM OVC003 16/15 A2989 RMK AO1= KBLM 221155Z AUTO 04009KT 1 1/2SM OVC004 16/15 A2988 RMK AO1 60005 70062 10160 20160 57003= KBLM 221215Z AUTO 04009KT 1 1/2SM OVC004 16/15 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221235Z AUTO 04008KT 2SM OVC003 16/15 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221255Z AUTO 05008KT 1 3/4SM OVC003 16/16 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221315Z AUTO 04010G14KT 2 1/2SM OVC004 17/16 A2987 RMK AO1= KBLM 221335Z AUTO 01006KT 3SM OVC003 17/15 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221355Z AUTO 05009KT 7SM OVC004 17/16 A2988 RMK AO1= STN TIME VIS PRESS ALTMR TMP DEW DIR SPD GST WEATHER CLOUDS REMARKS ==== ==== === ====== ===== === === === === === ================ ===================== ======= K12N 1254 -99 1012.3 29.91 17 16 000 0 -99 AO2 SLP123 P0001 T01720161 PWINO TSNO= KACY 1354 10 1011.6 29.88 18 17 340 7 -99 OVC005 AO2 SLP116 T01780167 TSNO= KBLM 1355 7 -999.9 29.88 17 16 050 9 -99 OVC004 AO1= KCDW 1353 10 1012.4 29.89 18 17 999 4 -99 BKN010 OVC015 AO2 RAE05 CIG 007V012 SLP124 P0000 T01780167= KEWR 1351 9 1011.6 29.88 18 16 030 9 -99 FEW005 BKN009 OVC014 AO2 DZE1252RAB1252E49 SLP116 P0000 T01830161= KFWN 1353 10 1012.2 29.90 18 16 040 5 -99 OVC014 AO2 RAB03E17 SLP122 P0000 T01830161= KMIV 1354 10 1011.6 29.88 19 17 340 5 -99 OVC006 AO2 CIG 005V010 SLP116 T01940172= KMMU 1345 3 -999.9 29.89 18 17 060 7 -99 BR OVC007 KNEL 1300 10 1011.0 29.86 18 17 000 0 -99 OVC006 AO2 CIG 004V009 SLP110 T01780167 $= KSMQ 1353 10 1011.4 29.87 19 17 050 3 -99 OVC013 AO2 SLP114 T01940167 TSNO= KTEB 1351 4 -999.9 29.87 18 16 060 4 -99 -RA BR OVC007 CIG 05V13= KTTN 1353 10 1011.2 29.88 18 16 030 6 -99 OVC006 AO2 SLP112 T01780161= KVAY 1354 8 1011.8 29.88 18 17 340 6 -99 BKN008 OVC011 AO2 SLP118 T01830167 TSNO= KWRI 1355 10 1011.4 29.86 18 17 350 6 -99 OVC007 AO2 CIG 007V009 SLP114 T01790166= KWWD 1355 10 -999.9 29.89 18 16 320 4 -99 OVC005 AO1= KBLM GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/22/2012 0600 UTC DT /MAY 22 /MAY 23 /MAY 24 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 70 59 76 61 78 TMP 62 65 68 67 64 62 61 60 63 69 73 73 69 65 63 62 65 72 75 71 65 DPT 58 59 60 59 59 58 57 57 58 59 59 59 59 58 56 56 58 60 61 61 60 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK BK BK OV SC OV BK BK BK CL WDR 05 06 06 09 11 13 12 05 05 13 12 14 15 17 16 12 10 12 13 14 16 WSP 07 06 06 06 04 03 01 01 03 05 06 06 05 04 03 02 05 06 09 06 04 P06 52 29 31 11 14 30 5 12 14 13 15 P12 55 34 30 20 29 Q06 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 1 0 0 0 0 T06 1/ 0 5/ 0 4/ 0 0/ 0 5/ 0 14/ 0 4/ 0 0/ 0 11/ 0 6/ 3 T12 9/ 0 5/ 0 15/ 0 11/ 1 21/ 7 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 4 6 8 8 8 1 1 1 8 8 8 1 VIS 3 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 1 7 7 6 2 OBV BR BR BR BR BR FG FG FG FG N N N N FG FG FG FG N N BR FG KBLM NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/22/2012 0000 UTC DT /MAY 22 /MAY 23 /MAY 24 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 69 59 71 60 73 TMP 61 60 60 64 66 65 63 62 61 60 60 66 68 67 64 62 62 61 61 69 65 DPT 57 56 56 58 59 59 58 57 57 57 57 57 56 56 55 54 53 52 52 55 55 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR 06 04 02 01 09 11 14 12 17 18 07 14 14 14 13 12 13 10 04 11 14 WSP 04 03 03 03 05 06 05 04 04 02 04 05 07 08 05 04 03 03 05 09 06 P06 72 75 55 35 33 55 25 26 18 16 21 P12 75 44 55 26 21 Q06 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 1 1 1 0 0 T06 0/ 0 4/ 2 15/ 2 6/ 1 0/ 0 6/ 2 22/ 2 9/ 0 1/ 0 9/ 5 T12 4/ 2 17/ 2 10/ 2 29/ 2 8/ 3 SNW 0 0 CIG 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 4 3 3 3 1 1 4 3 VIS 4 4 3 5 5 6 5 4 4 5 2 5 7 5 7 7 3 2 2 7 5 OBV BR BR BR BR BR N BR BR BR BR FG BR N BR N N BR FG BR N BR Warning, no MOS data files could be found or opened. Specified grid files of unknown type. Check WEATHER configuration. Station: KBLM Lat: 40.17 Lon: -74.12 Elev: 48 Closest grid pt: 21.1 km. Initialization Time: 12-05-22 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 22/12 22/18 23/00 23/06 23/12 23/18 24/00 24/06 24/12 24/18 25/00 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 2 M (F) 850 MB (C) 12 12 12 700 MB (C) 3 4 4 500 MB (C) -12 -12 -12 1000-500 THCK 563 563 563 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 850 MB DP(C)/RH 11/93 11/93 11/93 700 MB DP(C)/RH 2/94 1/86 1/82 500 MB DP(C)/RH -15/77 -17/65 -20/54 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.01 6HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.34 0.02 12HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.36 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 850 MB 06/005 02/003 30/009 700 MB 05/003 28/007 31/010 500 MB 23/004 26/010 28/011 250 MB 19/008 23/011 26/015 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1011.4 1011.1 1011.7 850 MB HGT 147 147 148 700 MB HGT 307 307 308 500 MB HGT 573 573 573 250 MB HGT 1065 1065 1064 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB -10 -10 2 700 MB 16 -3 6 500 MB 13 -1 1 CONVECTION PARAMS LIFT INX SFC LIFT INX 4LYR CAPE SFC 9 35 26 CAPE 4LYR CIN SFC 4 -8 -7 CIN 4LYR HELICITY (0-3 KM) Station: KBLM Lat: 40.17 Lon: -74.12 Elev: 48 Closest grid pt: 3.5 km. Initialization Time: 12-05-22 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 003 006 009 012 015 018 021 024 027 030 033 036 039 042 045 048 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 22/12 22/15 22/18 22/21 23/00 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 23/15 23/18 23/21 24/00 24/03 24/06 24/09 24/12 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS 2 M (F) 61 64 66 67 65 62 61 1000 MB (C) 15 16 17 18 17 16 15 975 MB (C) 14 15 15 16 15 15 15 950 MB (C) 14 15 14 15 14 16 16 925 MB (C) 15 14 14 14 15 15 16 900 MB (C) 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 875 MB (C) 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 850 MB (C) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 825 MB (C) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 800 MB (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 775 MB (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 750 MB (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 725 MB (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700 MB (C) 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 500 MB (C) -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -13 -13 1000-500 THCK 563 563 563 563 563 563 562 MOISTURE 2 M DEW POINT (F) 61 62 62 62 61 60 60 1000 MB DP(C)/RH 15/99 16/97 16/92 16/88 16/91 15/96 15/97 975 MB DP(C)/RH 14/99 15/99 15/99 15/97 15/99 15/99 15/99 950 MB DP(C)/RH 14/99 15/99 14/99 15/99 14/99 14/93 15/93 925 MB DP(C)/RH 14/96 14/99 14/99 14/96 13/92 13/89 14/90 900 MB DP(C)/RH 13/94 13/99 13/95 13/94 13/91 13/90 13/90 875 MB DP(C)/RH 12/93 12/99 12/93 12/92 11/89 12/92 12/90 850 MB DP(C)/RH 11/93 11/99 11/92 11/91 10/88 10/93 10/89 825 MB DP(C)/RH 10/94 10/99 10/92 9/90 9/87 9/90 9/88 800 MB DP(C)/RH 9/95 9/99 8/93 8/91 7/87 7/90 7/89 775 MB DP(C)/RH 7/96 8/99 7/94 7/91 6/87 6/90 6/90 750 MB DP(C)/RH 6/98 7/99 6/95 5/91 4/85 5/91 5/91 725 MB DP(C)/RH 5/98 5/99 4/96 3/87 3/83 3/90 3/92 700 MB DP(C)/RH 3/99 4/99 3/96 1/81 1/82 1/87 1/91 600 MB DP(C)/RH -4/97 -4/99 -4/95 -5/88 -6/82 -6/84 -6/88 500 MB DP(C)/RH -13/93 -14/88 -15/82 -20/54 -24/39 -21/50 -19/61 400 MB DP(C)/RH -26/83 -27/72 -30/55 -33/40 -39/24 -45/12 -49/08 300 MB DP(C)/RH -43/71 -43/72 -45/61 -48/42 -50/34 -48/45 -49/38 200 MB DP(C)/RH -63/54 -63/46 -64/32 -63/40 -62/54 -62/56 -65/48 PRCPABLE WTR (IN) 1.67 1.68 1.62 1.53 1.45 1.46 1.48 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.25 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 6HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.32 0.00 12HR TOTAL PRECIP 0.32 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 03/006 03/007 05/007 07/006 10/004 14/004 14/002 1000 MB 04/009 03/008 05/009 07/007 09/004 14/004 16/002 975 MB 06/014 05/013 05/011 06/008 07/005 11/005 22/004 950 MB 09/006 06/012 04/011 03/008 02/005 15/002 24/006 925 MB 06/005 04/010 03/010 03/006 35/003 26/003 26/006 900 MB 06/007 03/012 03/012 03/005 31/005 30/006 27/007 875 MB 06/010 03/014 04/011 34/004 31/011 31/010 28/008 850 MB 07/011 04/014 03/009 31/007 31/013 31/011 29/008 825 MB 08/011 05/012 03/008 31/008 31/013 32/010 29/007 800 MB 08/010 06/010 01/007 31/008 31/012 32/010 29/006 775 MB 09/009 06/008 00/006 31/009 31/011 32/009 29/005 750 MB 09/007 07/007 35/006 31/009 31/010 32/009 29/005 725 MB 09/006 07/006 33/006 31/010 31/010 31/008 29/005 700 MB 08/005 08/005 31/006 31/012 31/010 30/007 28/005 600 MB 29/001 17/002 28/009 30/013 30/009 28/009 26/009 500 MB 25/004 25/006 27/010 26/011 27/009 29/011 29/008 400 MB 24/008 26/005 26/008 26/012 27/012 27/012 27/013 300 MB 20/007 24/010 24/011 24/011 26/013 25/015 27/014 250 MB 18/008 23/008 23/012 24/015 26/015 27/015 28/016 200 MB 21/009 24/015 25/019 25/019 25/017 24/021 25/019 PRESS/HEIGHTS MSL PRESSURE 1011.3 1011.8 1011.2 1010.9 1012.0 1012.8 1013.0 850 MB HGT 147 147 147 147 148 148 149 700 MB HGT 307 307 307 307 308 308 309 500 MB HGT 573 573 573 573 573 573 573 250 MB HGT 1065 1065 1065 1064 1064 1064 1064 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 950 MB -33 38 -3 -16 -9 -13 -8 925 MB -31 28 -17 -20 -2 -11 -9 900 MB -28 13 -19 -16 3 -7 -8 875 MB -20 7 -16 -11 5 -5 -7 850 MB -10 5 -13 -13 5 -1 -6 825 MB 1 7 -15 -10 4 0 -5 800 MB 13 13 -14 -8 2 0 -3 775 MB 20 21 -16 -8 1 2 -4 750 MB 27 28 -14 -8 2 6 -6 725 MB 31 35 -11 -8 0 8 -7 700 MB 31 36 -9 -12 -1 9 -10 600 MB 34 29 1 -9 2 7 -9 500 MB 43 18 3 -1 0 -2 -5 400 MB 36 -3 4 2 -3 -4 2 300 MB -1 8 2 3 -8 2 -4 250 MB -19 -2 0 3 -6 1 -1 200 MB -22 -9 0 -1 -5 1 3 CONVECTION PARAMS LIFT INX SFC LIFT INX 4LYR CAPE SFC 17 0 17 0 0 0 0 CAPE 4LYR CIN SFC 10 2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 CIN 4LYR HELICITY (0-3 KM) Station: KBLM Lat: 40.17 Lon: -74.12 Elev: 48 Closest grid pt: 18.9 km. Initialization Time: 12-05-22 0600 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 066 072 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 22/06 22/12 22/18 23/00 23/06 23/12 23/18 24/00 24/06 24/12 24/18 25/00 25/06 ------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TEMPS SFC (2 M) (F) 61 61 64 62 59 62 69 64 62 65 70 66 64 850 MB (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 14 13 13 700 MB (C) 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 500 MB (C) -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 -13 -14 -14 -14 -14 1000-500 THCK 563 563 563 564 563 563 564 565 564 563 564 564 562 MOISTURE SFC (2M) DP (F) 61 60 62 61 57 60 64 62 60 63 65 64 64 850 MB DP/RH 11/99 10/97 10/91 10/86 8/78 8/78 9/76 8/65 8/71 8/70 8/70 9/73 5/59 700 MB DP/RH 3/98 3/95 2/92 1/80 1/83 -1/72 -1/73 -1/67 -2/68 -4/60 -2/67 -4/60 -6/53 500 MB DP/RH -12/97 -13/92 -18/62 -18/62 -21/49 -21/48 -20/51 -20/53 -19/61 -17/75 -16/80 -20/60 -21/57 CONV PRECIP (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) 0.25 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 WIND DD/FFF (Kts) 10 M 06/007 06/008 06/006 10/006 10/002 08/003 13/006 16/006 15/005 11/005 13/009 15/008 18/007 850 MB 13/015 07/006 05/003 35/006 32/004 33/004 28/002 21/004 21/007 20/009 18/010 19/014 20/017 700 MB 15/007 02/004 29/008 32/013 31/009 29/009 25/003 22/003 21/007 19/009 18/011 19/011 19/018 500 MB 12/008 23/008 27/016 29/012 27/008 28/008 24/002 11/006 12/009 11/013 14/012 13/009 18/007 250 MB 15/012 12/002 24/008 26/018 28/018 25/017 23/014 36/005 08/013 10/016 11/012 31/010 29/018 VERTICAL VEL (uB/S) 850 MB 78 8 -6 0 -12 -8 -2 -15 -5 -4 -11 10 11 700 MB 85 -20 -3 -11 -19 -4 12 -21 3 -1 -6 -3 0 500 MB -16 4 -13 -10 -10 -5 -4 16 8 -2 -6 -8 -3 OTHER TROP PRES (MB) 200 207 210 202 203 202 203 202 203 206 210 208 206 MSL PRES (MB) 1014 1012 1012 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1018 1018 1019 1019 500 MB HGT (DM) 574 573 573 573 574 575 577 578 578 579 580 579 579 500 MB ABS VORT 3.4 7.1 11.6 11.6 8.9 10.8 10.7 9.6 9.0 11.0 10.3 13.0 16.5 Station: KBLM Lat: 40.17 Lon: -74.12 Elev: 48 Closest grid pt: 3.5 km. Initialization Time: 12-05-22 1200 UTC PARAMETER/TIME 000 006 012 018 024 030 036 042 048 054 060 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ DAY / HOUR 22/12 22/18 23/00 23/06 23/12 23/18 24/00 24/06 24/12 24/18 25/00 ------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 850MB TEMPS GFS NAM 12 12 12 12 NGM RUC 700MB WIND GFS **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 NAM 08/005 31/006 31/010 28/005 NGM **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 RUC **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 500MB WIND GFS **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 NAM 25/004 27/010 27/009 29/008 NGM **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 RUC **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 **/000 TOTAL PRECIP (IN) GFS NAM 0.32 0.01 0.00 NGM RUC Specified grid files of unknown type. Check WEATHER configuration. FXUS61 KPHI 221330 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 930 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND DIRECTION AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES HERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO EXIT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN NEARBY BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY DRYING OCCUR. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BUT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. WE HAVE KEPT CHC OR LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME LOW TO MID 70S WILL OCCUR...WENT MOSTLY WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL END THIS EVENING AND THEN IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...THE MAV MOS TEMPS WERE USED FOR TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF MURKY EARLY SEASON HUMIDITY WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH FRIDAY... NOT NECESSARILY DIURNAL DRIVEN DUE TO SUBTLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH ALOFT...CURRENTLY FOR INSTANCE IN NJ. THE SUPPRESSION OF A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROMOTE INCREASED SUNSHINE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. 500 MB: TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN USA EVENTUALLY WEAKENS FRIDAY THEN IS REPLACED BY A MOUND OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED NEAR TENNESSEE. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS STRONG TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE MARITIMES WHICH MAY PERMIT A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT TO CUT OFF THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN EXCESSIVE EARLY SEASON BURST OF HEAT THAT WILL BE MAKING NEWS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS: MONTHLY AVG TEMPS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR AREA AND THESE DEPARTURES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS WARMER THAN NORMAL. FOR THIS 6 DAY LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVG ABOVE NORMAL EVERY DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEARLY 10 DEGREE DAILY POSITIVE DEPARTURES IN DAILY LOWS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND 60F DEWPOINT AIRMASS. IN FACT DEWPOINTS AND THE WORD HUMID MAY BE ADDED TO SOME OF OUR FORECAST PERIODS COME THE WEEKEND WHEN DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY RISE TO NEAR 70. THE DAILIES... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK FORCING AND OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS. SINCE THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT...THE BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING... PERMITTING NARROW SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDER OCCURS. 00Z/22 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED TO DEVELOP THE FCST ELEMENTS. USUALLY IN THESE PATTERNS THERE ARE LARGE CHUNKS OF TIME WHEN ITS NOT RAINING. POINT AND CLICK HAS MORE THUNDER DETAIL THAN THE LEGACY ZONES SINCE PREFER TO KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER TERM. CONFIDENCE IMAGERY FOCUSED ON GFS 2M TEMPS FROM FSU /HTTP:/MOE.MET.FSU.EDU/CONFIDENCE/PHL.HTML EXPRESSES ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS 2M TEMP FCST WED- SUNDAY AND BELOW AVG MONDAY. THAT MEANS THAT THE ECMWF HAVING TRADED PLACES WITH THE GFS IN ITS BACKDOOR CFRONT PLACEMENT MAY BE WRONG ON THIS 00Z/22 CYCLE. HAVENT CHECKED 00Z/22 EC ENSEMBLES. THE COLD FRONTAL PLACEMENT HINGES ON THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT...IF ITS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY SATURDAY ONWARD...WE'RE GOOD FOR A HEAT WAVE BUT IF THE RDG ALOFT HAS ITS EASTERN FLANK ALWAYS IN E PA...THEN THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH PERMITS HIGH PRES TO SAG SEWD FROM CANADA AND THE WEIGHT OF THE HEAVIER COOL AIR WILL UNDERCUT THE LIGHTER HOT HUMID AIRMASS TRYING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...THE RESULT BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS HERE ON MEMORIAL DAY...AT LEAST AT THIS DAY 7 JUNCTURE. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IN THIS EARLY SEASON HEAT PUSHING EWD FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ROLLING AROUND THE TOP /RING OF FIRE/ OF THE RIDGE. WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT? WE DONT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN OUR FCST FOR SUNDAY - TUESDAY AND THAT COULD BE A SHORT COMING IN THIS FCST FOR DAY 6-8...IN OTHER WORDS...TOO OPTIMISTIC. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON FCST DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. TSTMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS ATTM SINCE CONFID IN TSTMS IS RATHER LOW. IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS/AND FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR CONDS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY EACH DAY IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG BECOMES CIGS AROUND 2500-4500 FT EA AFTN. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS OR TSTMS. OUTLOOKING LESS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY SE WINDS WED AND THU OCNL G NEAR 15 KTS AND THEN TURN MORE SLY FRIDAY. SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SOME MVFR OR IFR ST/FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. LIGHT SW WINDS. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL (4 FT SWELL) AND ANY SMALL INCREASE WILL BRING THE SCA CONDITIONS. THE EXPIRATION TIME OF WED MORNING WILL NOT BE CHANGED. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME SRLY LATER TODAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. WEATHER...OCNL RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HEADLINES NOT ANTICIPATED AS ANY REMAINING 5-6 FT SEAS FROM TODAY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TRENDING SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOG MAY BE A MARINE NAVIGATION PROBLEM IN THIS LIGHT FLOW 60F DEWPOINT ENVIRONMENT OVER SST NEAR 60F. THERE ARE POCKETS OF COLDER SST NEAR OUR SHORES PER SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSESSMENT. && .HYDROLOGY... IN THE LAST 30 HOURS...THERE ARE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1 TO 1.6 INCHES OF RAIN IN NE NJ INCLUDING A DAILY RER AT KEWR. CONTD INFLOW IN THE MOST UNSTABLE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES NOSED IN TOWARD COASTAL NJ AND WHILE THUNDER WONT OCCUR...POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE NARROW SWATHS OF 72 HOUR TOTAL 1-3 INCH RFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN E PA AND POSSIBLY NNJ. PWATS THIS WEEK AROUND 1.4 INCHES INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.75 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. && .RIP CURRENTS... SWELL HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET...COMBINED WITH A DOMINANT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIOD...WILL OUTWEIGH THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWELL HEIGHT AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. WHILE THE COMBINATION SHOULD HAVE A LESSER EFFECT ON THE DELAWARE BEACHES...IT WAS INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O'HARA SHORT TERM...O'HARA LONG TERM...DRAG AVIATION...DRAG/O'HARA MARINE...DRAG/O'HARA HYDROLOGY... RIP CURRENTS... FXUS61 KOKX 221156 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 756 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...DEWPOINTS...AND TEMPS. HIGHS LOWERED BY A DEGREE. MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST RESTRICTED TO THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SFC LOW TRAVERSES EAST...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT...VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVE THROUGH. ANALYSIS OF LAPS SOUNDINGS...VERIFIED BY MODEL PLAN VIEW FORECASTS... PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL...BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH...AND EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL HIT OR MISS SHOWER/TSTM THREAT. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THUNDER CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS MORNING...THEN RISE THROUGH THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND...MY INCLINATION IS TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THIS TIME FRAME...WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STEADY. NAM PERHAPS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY TANGIBLE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OUTCOME DUE TO THIS. FOR TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH SITS ACROSS OR NEAR WESTERN SECTIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW TURNS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL SATURATION...AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS LIKELY. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. I FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. MORNING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS DEPENDING ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS DUE TO AMPLE ALBEIT WEAK INSTABILITY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND 60 DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S. IF ANY SUNSHINE IS REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON...READINGS COULD APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE SHORES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED IN A LARGER LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN. Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE EVIDENT IN THE MODEL FIELDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER...IMPLYING THEREFORE LESS SYNOPTIC FORCING. NO JET STREAKS ARE EVIDENT AS WELL. HENCE...ANY FORCING MECHANISM FOR VERTICAL LIFT WILL BE TIED TO SFC BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS WEAK PVA AT 500 MB WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THESE BOUNDARIES SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT LOWERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE ELEVATES AGAIN DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR AREA WITH DIURNAL WARMING AND THE INHERENT INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WITH THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ONCE AGAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE AS WELL. THIS FOG SHOULD DECREASE WITH DAYTIME WARMTH ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS BUT STILL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS COMING INTO PLACES BETWEEN 12-14 DEG C. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO END UP BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS DECREASE MORE THAN FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS MUCAPE INCREASES ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS LONG ISLAND. POPS STILL IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY...SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM NVA ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS OF SUN. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY TRIGGERING ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST FEW DEGREES ABOVE HIGHS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY...EASILY GETTING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM MARITIME INFLUENCE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR WESTERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 TO 500MB LAYER AND 500MB PVA STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH. STILL HAVE POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND IT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDING ALONG TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE LOCAL REGION REMAINS ON THE NE EDGE OF IT CONSIDERING AN AVERAGE OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BUILDING RIDGE IN OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL REGION. RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY. GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYNOPTIC SPEED OF THIS FEATURE WHILE ECMWF AND CMC ARE SLOWER AND KEEP THE LOCAL REGION MORE ON THE NE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH NW WINDS AT 500MB. USED MOSGUIDE FOR THE TEMPS WHICH WILL BE GETTING INCREASINGLY ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL WITH LAYER PW VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER. RIDGE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED VARY WARM TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS 17-19 DEG C FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS BANDS OF SHOWERS PINWHEEL ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THESE BANDS PASS...EXACT TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN. ATTM STILL EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END MVFR CIGS FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS NORTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON BY ABOUT 18Z...BUT KISP/KBDR NOW LOOK MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN ALOFT...BUT THIS IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AND LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR PAST THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING/DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY UNCERTAIN...UNSCHEDULED AMD LIKELY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING/DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY UNCERTAIN...UNSCHEDULED AMD LIKELY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING/DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY UNCERTAIN...UNSCHEDULED AMD LIKELY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING/DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY UNCERTAIN...UNSCHEDULED AMD LIKELY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING/DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY UNCERTAIN...UNSCHEDULED AMD LIKELY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING/DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY UNCERTAIN...UNSCHEDULED AMD LIKELY. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...MVFR CONDS LIKELY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. FOG WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. .THU-SAT...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL. THE EAST WIND FLOW WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...THEN SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE OCEAN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIND OR WAVE RELATED ISSUES THOUGH FOR THE HARBORS/BAYS AND SOUND SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO HAVE SUB SCA FORECAST CONDITIONS THROUGH LONG TERM. AREAS OF FOG OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE DENSE. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT. FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. AGAIN...WHERE THIS OCCURS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO KEEP ALERT FOR ANY SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. IN THE LONG TERM...MOST RAIN IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION. MOST BASIN AVERAGED AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP AT LEAST HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW NJZ013-222000- WESTERN MONMOUTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD 930 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .TODAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NJZ014-222000- EASTERN MONMOUTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDY HOOK 930 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .TODAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. .MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NJZ006-222015- HUDSON- 753 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .TODAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 80. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NOUS61 KPHI 221152 FTMPHL MESSAGE DATE: MAY 22 2012 11:51 UTC THE PHILADELPHIA TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR (TPHL) IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1800 UTC TODAY, MAY 22ND, FOR PREVENTATIVE MAINTENANCE. NOUS41 KOKX 221123 CCA PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-222159- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 722 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 27 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS RAINFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NEW CANAAN 0.77 700 PM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER DANBURY AIRPORT 0.73 445 AM 5/22 ASOS NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... LYNDHURST 1.79 506 AM 5/22 MESONET WOOD-RIDGE 1.33 507 AM 5/22 MESONET TETERBORO 1.26 501 AM 5/22 ASOS NORTH ARLINGTON 0.99 625 PM 5/21 MESONET ...ESSEX COUNTY... 1 NW NUTLEY 1.79 430 AM 5/22 MESONET NEWARK AIRPORT 1.71 447 AM 5/22 ASOS WEST ORANGE 1.70 900 PM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SE CEDAR GROVE 1.59 444 AM 5/22 MESONET CALDWELL AIRPORT 0.83 444 AM 5/22 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... HARRISON 1.46 446 AM 5/22 MESONET BAYONNE 1.02 1046 AM 5/21 EMERGENCY MANAGER ...PASSAIC COUNTY... 1 NW POMPTON LAKES 1.32 503 AM 5/22 MESONET ...UNION COUNTY... ROSELLE PARK 1.67 700 PM 5/21 PUBLIC NEW YORK ...KINGS COUNTY... 2 W CROWN HEIGHTS 2.70 506 AM 5/22 MESONET 2 ENE CONEY ISLAND 2.08 502 AM 5/22 MESONET SHEEPSHEAD BAY 1.55 1145 AM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER BROOKLYN 1.48 1207 PM 5/21 COOP OBSERVER ...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY... CROWN HEIGHTS 2.28 756 PM 5/21 MESONET CONEY ISLAND 1.76 716 PM 5/21 MESONET SHEEPSHEAD BAY 1.70 500 PM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER ...NASSAU COUNTY... FREEPORT 3.31 1229 PM 5/21 EMERGENCY MANAGER LYNBROOK 2.50 630 PM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER MERRICK 2.08 1200 AM 5/22 SKYWARN SPOTTER HEWLETT 2.04 430 AM 5/22 MESONET BELLEROSE 2.01 507 AM 5/22 MESONET VALLEY STREAM 1.56 1144 AM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST MEADOW 1.30 500 PM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER WANTAGH 1.16 620 PM 5/21 TRAINED SPOTTER ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 1.56 503 AM 5/22 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... 1 SW HARRIMAN 1.33 509 AM 5/22 MESONET 3 WNW VAILS GATE 1.13 505 AM 5/22 MESONET MONTGOMERY 0.96 459 AM 5/22 ASOS VAILS GATE 0.88 815 PM 5/21 MESONET ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.89 456 AM 5/22 ASOS 3 NW OZONE PARK 1.61 445 AM 5/22 MESONET OZONE PARK 1.36 745 PM 5/21 MESONET NYC/LA GUARDIA 1.20 457 AM 5/22 ASOS ...RICHMOND COUNTY... ANNADALE 1.93 531 AM 5/22 MESONET FRESH KILLS 1.28 1105 AM 5/21 MESONET ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... WESLEY HILLS 1.09 824 PM 5/21 MESONET ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EAST FARMINGDALE 0.43 449 AM 5/22 ASOS ISLIP AIRPORT 0.42 600 AM 5/22 ASOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... BRIARCLIFF MANOR 2.19 820 PM 5/21 MESONET 1 NNE PEEKSKILL 1.95 509 AM 5/22 MESONET RYE 1.38 1100 PM 5/21 PUBLIC WHITE PLAINS 1.34 453 AM 5/22 ASOS $$ JM K12N 221154Z AUTO VRB03KT 17/16 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 60004 70064 T01670161 10167 20161 56002 PWINO TSNO $= K12N 221254Z AUTO 00000KT 17/16 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP123 P0001 T01720161 PWINO TSNO= KACY 221154Z AUTO 01008KT 5SM BR OVC005 17/16 A2987 RMK AO2 RAE32 CIG 003V007 SLP114 P0003 60043 70076 T01670161 10172 20167 53003 TSNO= KACY 221210Z AUTO 36008KT 5SM BR OVC003 17/16 A2987 RMK AO2 TSNO= KACY 221254Z AUTO 36005KT 10SM OVC003 17/17 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP115 T01720167 TSNO= KACY 221354Z AUTO 34007KT 10SM OVC005 18/17 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP116 T01780167 TSNO= KBLM 221155Z AUTO 04009KT 1 1/2SM OVC004 16/15 A2988 RMK AO1 60005 70062 10160 20160 57003= KBLM 221215Z AUTO 04009KT 1 1/2SM OVC004 16/15 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221235Z AUTO 04008KT 2SM OVC003 16/15 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221255Z AUTO 05008KT 1 3/4SM OVC003 16/16 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221315Z AUTO 04010G14KT 2 1/2SM OVC004 17/16 A2987 RMK AO1= KBLM 221335Z AUTO 01006KT 3SM OVC003 17/15 A2988 RMK AO1= KBLM 221355Z AUTO 05009KT 7SM OVC004 17/16 A2988 RMK AO1= KCDW 221153Z 00000KT 5SM BR OVC007 17/16 A2990 RMK AO2 RAE33 CIG 005V009 SLP131 P0000 60000 70075 T01670161 10167 20161 50001= KCDW 221253Z 04005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC007 17/17 A2989 RMK AO2 RAB21 CIG 004V010 SLP126 P0000 T01720167= KCDW 221353Z VRB04KT 10SM BKN010 OVC015 18/17 A2989 RMK AO2 RAE05 CIG 007V012 SLP124 P0000 T01780167= KEWR 221151Z 02008KT 8SM -RA SCT005 BKN008 OVC018 17/16 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP120 CIG 007V009 P0000 60014 70140 T01720161 10172 20161 56005= KEWR 221251Z 03007KT 8SM -DZ FEW005 BKN007 OVC012 18/16 A2988 RMK AO2 RAE1153DZB1153 SLP117 CIG 006V008 P0000 T01780161= KEWR 221351Z 03009KT 9SM FEW005 BKN009 OVC014 18/16 A2988 RMK AO2 DZE1252RAB1252E49 SLP116 P0000 T01830161= KFWN 221153Z AUTO 02006KT 8SM BKN006 BKN013 OVC019 17/16 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB24E53 SLP127 P0001 60004 70060 T01720156 10172 20161 56003= KFWN 221253Z AUTO 03006KT 6SM BR BKN008 OVC013 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP125 T01780167= KFWN 221353Z AUTO 04005KT 10SM OVC014 18/16 A2990 RMK AO2 RAB03E17 SLP122 P0000 T01830161= KMIV 221154Z AUTO 01005KT 10SM OVC006 17/16 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP114 60007 70012 T01720161 10178 20172 53003= KMIV 221254Z AUTO 36003KT 10SM OVC004 18/17 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP117 T01780167= KMIV 221354Z AUTO 34005KT 10SM OVC006 19/17 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 005V010 SLP116 T01940172= KMMU 221145Z 05004KT 1SM BR OVC005 17/16 A2991= KMMU 221245Z 06005KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC005 17/17 A2990= KMMU 221345Z 06007KT 3SM BR OVC007 18/17 A2989= KNEL 221200Z AUTO VRB06KT 10SM OVC006 17/16 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 005V010 SLP111 60000 70005 T01720161 10172 20161 55003 $= KNEL 221300Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC006 18/17 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 004V009 SLP110 T01780167 $= KSMQ 221153Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM OVC009 18/16 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 007V012 SLP116 60003 70054 T01780161 10178 20167 56002 TSNO= KSMQ 221253Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC009 18/17 A2987 RMK AO2 CIG 008V013 SLP115 T01830167 TSNO= KSMQ 221353Z AUTO 05003KT 10SM OVC013 19/17 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP114 T01940167 TSNO= KTEB 221151Z 06003KT 3SM -RABR OVC007 17/15 A2989 RMK CIG 005V011= KTEB 221151Z COR 06003KT 3SM -RABR OVC007 17/15 A2989 RMK CIG005V011= KTEB 221151Z 06003KT 3SM -RABR OVC007 17/15 A2989= KTEB 221351Z 06004KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 18/16 A2987 RMK CIG 05V13= KTTN 221153Z 07008KT 10SM OVC004 17/16 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP111 60009 70031 T01720161 10172 20161 58000= KTTN 221253Z VRB05KT 10SM OVC006 18/16 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 004V010 SLP111 T01780161= KTTN 221353Z 03006KT 10SM OVC006 18/16 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP112 T01780161= KVAY 221154Z AUTO 04004KT 10SM OVC006 18/16 A2987 RMK AO2 CIG 005V011 SLP115 60017 70034 T01780161 10178 20167 57001 TSNO= KVAY 221254Z AUTO 05004KT 10SM OVC008 18/16 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 SLP117 T01780161 TSNO= KVAY 221354Z AUTO 34006KT 8SM BKN008 OVC011 18/17 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 T01830167 TSNO= KWRI 221155Z AUTO 03008KT 10SM OVC005 17/16 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 004V007 SLP111 60003 70023 T01690165 10169 20163 57002= KWRI 221201Z AUTO 03008KT 10SM OVC006 17/17 A2985 RMK AO2 CIG 004V007 SLP111= KWRI 221155Z AUTO 03008KT 10SM OVC005 17/16 A2986= KWRI 221209Z AUTO 02007KT 10SM OVC005 17/17 A2985 RMK AO2 CIG 005V007 SLP110= KWRI 221235Z AUTO 01006KT 10SM OVC006 17/16 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 004V007 SLP111= KWRI 221248Z AUTO 02007KT 10SM OVC007 17/16 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 005V008 SLP111= KWRI 221255Z AUTO 03006KT 10SM OVC007 17/17 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 006V008 SLP111 T01740165= KWRI 221342Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM OVC008 18/17 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 007V009 SLP113= KWRI 221348Z AUTO 35007KT 10SM OVC007 18/17 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 007V009 SLP113= KWRI 221355Z AUTO 35006KT 10SM OVC007 18/17 A2986 RMK AO2 CIG 007V009 SLP114 T01790166= KWWD 221155Z AUTO 03005KT 10SM OVC005 17/16 A2987 RMK AO1 60002 70045 10170 20170 52003= KWWD 221215Z AUTO 02004KT 10SM OVC005 18/16 A2987 RMK AO1= KWWD 221235Z AUTO 01004KT 10SM OVC005 18/16 A2988 RMK AO1= KWWD 221255Z AUTO 33005KT 10SM OVC006 18/17 A2988 RMK AO1= KWWD 221315Z AUTO 32003KT 10SM OVC006 18/17 A2988 RMK AO1= KWWD 221335Z AUTO 35004KT 10SM OVC006 18/17 A2989 RMK AO1= KWWD 221355Z AUTO 32004KT 10SM OVC005 18/16 A2989 RMK AO1=