Map Disco: 22 Nov 2013



Busted Models and Mediterranean Mischief


Busted Models



ECMWF Fantasy Cyclone

Comparison of deterministic ECMWF vs. Ensemble mean (192 hr forecasts verifying 0000 UTC 15 Nov) Nick Schiraldi

Full Ensemble Bust


Original map post email from Anthony Fracasso (13 Nov) - Anthony Fracasso
500 hPa geopotential height spaghetti plot depicting various ensembles from EPS, GEFS with verifying solution (white line) (204 hr forecasts valid 1200 UTC 11 Nov) - Anthony Fracasso
Comparison of 500 hPa Geopotential Height Error between the GEFS and EPS (204 hr forecasts valid 1200 UTC 11 Nov) - Anthony Fracasso
Verifying 500mb height pattern with standardized anomalies (1200 UTC 11 Nov) - Mike Bodner / WPC
500 hPa Geopotential Height ECMWF ensemble normalised standard deviation (192 hr forecast valid 1200 UTC 12 Nov) - ecmwf.int


Mediterranean Mischief


In House Graphics


GFS Analysis and Forecast: Atlantic Ocean and Europe

Synoptic Overview(DT/Irro.Wind/PW,MSLP,Jets/500-hPa vort./Coupling Index/Thermal vorticity) (0000 UTC 5 Nov - 0600 UTC 30 Nov) Alicia Bentley

GFS Analysis and Forecast: Mediterranean

Integrated Vapor Transport (1000-700 hPa) - 850 hPa Geopotential Height (0000 UTC 17 Nov - 1800 UTC 19 Nov) Ben Moore
CAPE - PMSL - 10m Wind (1200 UTC 17 Nov - 1800 UTC 19 Nov) Ben Moore
48-h backwards kinematic air parcel trajectories where gridpoints >90% RH over Sardinia, Italy (1200 UTC 17 Nov - 0000 UTC 19 Nov) Ben Moore
Vertical Cross Section of Theta-E, Omega, Mixing Ratio, and Zonal Wind (0-15oE) (0000 UTC 15 Nov - 1800 UTC 19 Nov) Julian Quinting

GFS Analysis and Forecast: North America

Synoptic Overview(DT/Irro.Wind/PW,MSLP,Jets/500-hPa vort./Coupling Index/Thermal vorticity) (0000 UTC 5 Nov - 0600 UTC 30 Nov) Alicia Bentley

GFS Analysis and Forecast: Pacific

Synoptic Overview(DT/Irro.Wind/PW,MSLP,Jets/500-hPa vort./Coupling Index/Thermal vorticity) (0000 UTC 1 Nov - 0600 UTC 30 Nov) Alicia Bentley

Satellite Imagery



CIMSS Satellite Blog (22 Nov 2013) - CIMSS / University of Wisconsin - Madison
---- Color Enhanced Infrared Large Scale Satellite Loop (00 UTC 15 Nov - 00 UTC 20 Nov 2013)
---- Color Enhanced Water Vapor Satellite Loop (00 UTC 15 Nov - 00 UTC 20 Nov 2013)
---- Color Enhanced Infrared Satellite Loop - Zoomed In (08:00 UTC - 18:30 UTC 18 Nov 2013)
---- Visible Satellite Loop - Zoomed In (08:00 UTC 5 Nov - 18:00 UTC 18 Nov 2013)


Radar Imagery


Radar Rain Rate (mm/hr) + IR Satellite of Italy (01:00 UTC 18 Nov - 01:00 UTC 19 Nov 2013)
Radar Rain Rate (mm/hr) + IR Satellite of Italy (01:00 UTC 19 Nov - 01:00 UTC 20 Nov 2013)

Radar Reflectivity (dBZ) of Severe Weather Outbreak (16:00 UTC 17 Nov - 12:00 UTC 18 Nov 2013) Philippe Papin

Surface Observations


Sardinia, Italy Observations (14 Nov - 20 Nov) - Dipartimento Specialistico Regionale Idrometeoclimatico

Sardinia, Italy Precipitation Totals (mm) (18 Nov) - Julian Quinting
Sardinia, Italy Precipitation Totals (mm) (19 Nov) - Julian Quinting

News and Media Reports



Apocalyptic storm floods parts of Sardinia, downing bridges and killing at least 16 (19 Nov) - The Washington Post

A drone's view of Illinois tornado damage (21 Nov) - CNN

Relevant Papers



Nuissier et al. (2008) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
---- Table 1 and Figure 1 - Summary of recent flash floods around the western Mediterranean

Other Graphics



World record point precipitation measurements Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center - NOAA - NWS

Global Sea Surface Temperatures CIMSS - SSEC


Looking Ahead: Large Uncertainty with the Pre-Thanksgiving Storm


GFS Ensembles



GEFS normalized SLP spread (shading) and individual member SLP positions with min pressure (numbers) (72 hour forecast valid 1200 UTC 27 Nov) - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
GEFS normalized 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies (shading) and mean (black contours) (72 hour forecast valid 1200 UTC 27 Nov) - Kyle MacRitchie
Deterministic GFS Dprog/Dt of 500 hPa geopotential height (contours) and vorticity (shaded), and vertical velocity (blue contours) (Forecast valid 1200 UTC 27 Nov) - Kyle Griffin


Other Miscellaneous Products


SPC Meso Archive
National Snow Analyses - NOHRSC
World Climate Index Map
Mike Ventrice's TRMM Precipitation / MJO Filtered VP200 hPa / 200 hPa Winds
Wyoming Sounding Page
Twister Data
National Buoy Data Center
Storm Prediction Center Meso-analysis
Penn State's EWALL Model Page
High Resolution Rapid Refresh Home Page
Kyle Griffin's Maps: Main Page
Ron-Mctaggart Cowan's DT Maps and Coupling Index
Heather Archambault's 2013 GFS Analyses
Tom Galarneau's Real Time Diagnostics
RAP-UCAR Real-Time Weather Data
Digital Typhoon - Typhoon Images and Information
PSD Maproom - ESRL
NeXt Generation Weather Lab - College of DuPage
Free Relief Maps
Modis Satellite Imagery World Viewer