5TH ANNUAL ALBANY SNOWFALL FORECAST CONTEST

Benefiting the Capital Region of New York Chapter of the AMS

Predict Albany’s snowfall!

 

We raised a total of $192 for the Capital Region AMS.  Thank you to everyone for participating!  The winner of each contest will receive a $26 cash prize.

 

Click the table links below to see the standings.  We will update them as often as possible.

 

Contest

Verification

Winner

1) First 1”+ Storm

17 December (2.0”)

JuliE Kelsey

2) Largest Storm

11.3” (19–20 December)

Matthew Cote

3) Season Total

52.6”

JuliE Kelsey

Final contest results

 

Contest Rules:  Anyone may enter the contests.  The cost is $10 to play all three contests.  70% of the proceeds will go to the Capital Region AMS, while 10% of the proceeds will go to the winner of each contest.  Forecasts are due by 5 PM on 7 November 2008.

 

1) Correctly predict the day of the first 1-inch snowfall in Albany.*

The time frame for verifiable 1.0”+ snowstorms is 10 November 2008 through 1 May 2009.  Only snowfall events after 10 November will count for this contest.  In the event that the first one-inch snowfall occurs over two consecutive days, the day during which the storm total reaches 1.0” will be the day of verification.  Several people may predict the same day.  To serve as a tiebreaker, each person must include a prediction for the “storm total” of the first 1.0”+ storm down to the tenths of an inch (i.e., 5.8”).  If two or more persons are tied for the closest prediction of the day, the person with the closest prediction of the storm total is the winner.  If the tie is still not resolved, the winner will be the person with the best prediction in the second contest.

 

Average (last 10 seasons):

14 December (5.0”)

Earliest Ever:

4 October (6.5”) – 1987

Latest Ever:

19 January (1.1”) – 2007

 

 

Last 5 Seasons:

13 December (8.2”) – 2007

 

19 January (1.1”) – 2007

 

4 December (1.0”) – 2005

 

6 December (2.6”) – 2004

 

6 December (12.5”) – 2003

 

2) Correctly predict the storm total of the largest snowfall event in Albany.*

All predictions must include tenths of an inch (i.e., 14.9”).  The time frame for verifiable snowstorms is 10 November 2008 through 1 May 2009.  To serve as a tiebreaker, all predictions must include the predicted “day of commencement” of the storm.  If the tie is still not resolved, the winner will be the person with the most accurate prediction in the third contest.

 

Average (last 10 seasons):

14.2” (28 January)

Largest Ever:

46.7” (11–14 March 1888)

2nd Largest Ever:

26.6” (13–14 March 1993)

 

 

Last 5 Seasons:

10.1” (30–31 December 2007)

 

16.8” (13–14 February 2007)

 

5.2” (23 January 2006)

 

11.7” (1–2 March 2005)

 

18.0” (6–7 December 2003)

 

3) Correctly predict the total season snowfall in Albany.*

All predictions must include tenths of an inch (i.e., 65.8”).  The time frame of verification is 1 October 2008 through 1 May 2009.  The tiebreaker, if necessary, will go to the person with the best prediction in the first contest.

 

Average (last 10 seasons):

61.4” (overall:  56.4”)

Most Ever:

112.5” (1970–1971)

Least Ever:

13.8” (1912–1913)

 

 

Last 5 Seasons:

61.1” (2007–2008)

 

45.9” (2006–2007)

 

30.2” (2005–2006)

 

75.9” (2004–2005)

 

65.1” (2003–2004)

 

*Only one prediction permitted per person for each contest.  All contests are verified by the measurements taken at and reported by CESTM/NWS (the official location of snowfall measurements for Albany) and will be obtained from NWS-Albany.  The official day of verification is consistent with the 24-hour period used for Albany’s official daily climatology (5Z–5Z, 12 AM–12 AM EST).  The contest coordinators will keep all entries confidential until after the entry deadline (7 November 2008), at which point they will be posted outside Earth Science 333 (the Map Room) and online.

 

The entry fee is $10; any additional donations will go directly to the Capital Region AMS.  All predictions and fees must be submitted by 5 PM on 7 November 2008.  Predictions should be submitted via email at snowfall@atmos.albany.edu.  Entry fees must be paid to Maghan Avery (AMS Treasurer) or Carl Schreck or Alan Srock (in Earth Science 330) by 7 November (unless other arrangements have been made; also, see “New This Year” note below).

 

New This Year:  The local AMS chapter will again be selling refreshments during breaks at the 10th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop (NROW) at CESTM this year on 5–6 November 2008.  Forecasts and entry fees will be accepted at NROW by AMS members whenever the refreshment table is open.  Those who submit forecasts at NROW will not need to email their picks.

 

Spread the word by printing out the contest flyer or poster with all the necessary information.

 

Additional Climatological Information:

Seasonal and Largest Storm Data

Preliminary Local Climate Data for Last 12 Years

New York Station Snowfall Climatology from NCDC

 

Past Snowfall Contests:

2005–2006

2006–2007

2007–2008

 

About the Capital Region of New York Chapter of the American Meteorological Society:  The local AMS chapter meets at the University at Albany campus during the academic year.  Membership is open to any student, faculty, or member of the public who has an interest in meteorology.  For information on upcoming meetings, events, and membership, please visit the Capital Region AMS website at http://www.atmos.albany.edu/ams.

 

Questions and Forecast Submissions:  snowfall@atmos.albany.edu