4th Annual UAlbany Snowfall Forecast Contest

Benefiting the Regional Food Bank of Northeastern New York

Predict Albany’s snowfall and help those it affects most!

 

Thank you to everyone who participated so generously!  Together, we’ve raised $200 for the Regional Food Bank.  Each contest winner will also receive a $22 prize for their “skill”.

 

Click the links below in the table to see how you are doing.  We will update them as often as possible.

 

Contest

Verification

Winner

1) First 1” Storm

13 December (8.2”)

Jackie Frank

2) Largest Storm

10.1” (30–31 December 2007)

Hugh Johnson

3) Season Total

61.1”

Patrick Wilson

Final contest results

           

Contest Rules:  Anyone may enter the contests.  The cost is $10 to play all three contests.  70% of the proceeds will go to the Regional Food Bank, while 10% of the proceeds will go to the winner of each contest.  Forecasts are due by 26 October 2007.

 

1) Correctly predict the day of the first 1-inch snowfall in Albany.*

The time period for verifiable 1.0”+ snowstorms is 1 November 2007 through 1 May 2008.  Only snowfall events after 1 November will count for this contest.  In the event that the first one-inch storm occurs over two consecutive days, the day during which the storm total reaches 1.0”+ will be the day of verification.  Several people may predict the same day.  To serve as a tiebreaker, each person must include a prediction for the “storm total” of the first 1.0”+ storm down to the tenths of an inch (i.e. 5.8”).  If two or more persons are tied for the closest prediction of the day, the person with the closest prediction of the storm total is the winner.  If the tie is still not resolved, the winner will be the person with the best prediction in the second contest.

 

Average (last 10 seasons):     11 December (4.7”)

Earliest Ever:                           4 October (6.5”) – 1987

Latest Ever:                             19 January (1.1”) – 2007

 

Last 5 Seasons:                      19 January (1.1”) – 2007

                                                            4 December (1.0”) – 2005

                                                            6 December (2.6”) – 2004

                                                            6 December (12.5”) – 2003

                                                            16 November (3.4”) – 2002

 

2) Correctly predict the storm total of the largest snowfall event in Albany.*

All predictions must include tenths of an inch (i.e. 14.9”).  The time period for verifiable snowstorms is 1 November 2007 through 1 May 2008.  To serve as a tiebreaker, all predictions must include the predicted “day of commencement” of the storm.  If the tie is still not resolved, the winner will be the person with the most accurate prediction in the third contest.

 

Average (last 10 seasons):     13.7” (16 January)

Largest Ever:                           46.7” (11–14 March 1888)

2nd Largest Ever:                    26.6” (13–14 March 1993)

 

Last 5 Seasons:                      16.8” (13–14 February 2007)

                                                5.2” (23 January 2006)

                                                11.7” (1–2 March 2005)

                                                18.0” (6–7 December 2003)

                                                21.0” (25–26 December 2002)

 

3) Correctly predict the total season snowfall in Albany.*

All predictions must include tenths of an inch (i.e. 65.8”).  The time period of verification is 1 October 2007 through 1 May 2008.  The tiebreaker, if necessary, will go to the person with the best prediction in the first contest.

 

Average (last 10 seasons):     60.6” (overall:  56.3”)

Most Ever:                               112.5” (1970–1971)

Least Ever:                              13.8” (1912–1913)

 

Last 5 Seasons:                      45.9” (2006–2007)

                                                30.2” (2005–2006)

                                                75.9” (2004–2005)

                                                65.1” (2003–2004)

                                                105.4” (2002–2003)

 

* Only one prediction permitted per person for each contest.  All contests are verified by the measurements taken at and reported by CESTM/NWS (the official location of snowfall measurements for Albany) and will be obtained from NWS-Albany.  The official day of verification is consistent with the 24-hour period used for Albany’s official daily climatology (5Z–5Z, 12am–12am EST).  The contest coordinators will keep all entries confidential until after the entry deadline.  After 26 October 2007, they will be posted outside Earth Science 333 (the Map Room) and online.

 

The entry fee is $10, but feel free to donate more to this cause – any donations above $10 will go directly to the Regional Food Bank.  All predictions and fees must be submitted by 5pm on 26 October 2007.  Predictions should be submitted via email at snowfall@atmos.albany.edu.  Entry fees must be paid to Carl Schreck or Alan Srock (in Earth Science 330) by 26 October (unless other arrangements have been made).

 

Feel free to print out this flyer (pdf) with the rules and information to help spread the word.

 

Additional climatological information can be found at:

·       Seasonal and Largest Storm Data

·       Preliminary Local Climate Data (monthly summaries for the last 11 years)

·       Station Snowfall Climatology for New York from NCDC

 

Past snowfall contest websites:

·       2005–2006

·       2006–2007

 

Bonus opportunity to help:  Since the charity this year is a food bank, the contest organizers will also be conducting a food drive along with the snowfall contest.  Anyone wishing to donate non-perishable food can bring items to ES-330 along with their entry fee.  Protein items or prepared foods – tuna, peanut butter, chili, soup, etc. – are especially needed, but any donation is appreciated.  The food items will be delivered to the Food Bank after the contest begins.

 

About the Regional Food Bank of Northeastern New York:  The Regional Food Bank has been helping to feed the poor and hungry in our communities since 1982.  It is the only organization of its kind in northeastern New York.  The Food Bank collects large donations of food from the food industry and distributes it to charitable agencies serving hungry and disadvantaged people in 23 counties.  From Plattsburgh to Newburgh, in urban, rural, and suburban communities, the Food Bank provides nearly 20 million pounds of food a year to over 1,000 agencies.  (from their website)

 

Questions and forecast submissions:  snowfall@atmos.albany.edu