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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KAKQ 271021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
621 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A pleasant weekend is expected with slightly below normal
temperatures and lower humidity. A warming trend is expected
next week along with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant weather for late July expected today, with low humidity
and temps in the 80s.

The front that slid through the area yesterday is now well S of the
region. Patchy rain or drizzle may continue over coastal NE NC
and far SE VA for the next hour or so. Otherwise, clouds are
clearing quickly from NW to SE as drier air pushes into the
region. Cooler this morning with temps ranging through the 60s
(lower 70s at the immediate coast).

High pressure ridges down into the area today, with a broad trough
swinging through aloft. With afternoon dew points in the low-mid 60s
(upper 50s possible during peak heating inland), it'll be noticeably
more comfortable compared to our weather of late. Forecast highs are
in the mid-upper 80s under a mostly sunny sky. Model soundings
suggest there could be some SCT fair wx cumulus given a well-mixed
afternoon boundary layer, especially across the Piedmont and western
MD Eastern Shore. Lows tonight look to be in the low-mid 60s for
most, but could even see some upper 50s (!) in the typically cooler
spots inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant conditions continue Sunday, though it will be warmer.

- Becoming more humid Monday, with a slight chance for an
afternoon/evening shower or storm.

On Sunday, the trough that passed over us today will close off into
an upper low offshore. A weak sfc low still looks to develop and
more toward the New England coast Sunday night. Still not expecting
any impact locally from this feature and dry conditions will
continue across our area. Forecast highs Sunday are a few degrees
warmer than Saturday and in the mid-upper 80s, with readings near 90
F possible N and NW of Richmond. Lows in the mid-upper 60s.

The upper low may remain NE of the area Monday. Sfc high pressure
also situates well offshore, with S/SW return flow likely to push
some moisture back into the area (aftn dew points increase into the
upper 60s to around 70). General trend in the latest guidance has
been for a drier forecast, though, with a less-defined lee trough.
Have a dry forecast for NE NC and maintained 20% PoPs for most of
our VA counties (30% across the far W/NW).  While afternoon temps
warm into the upper 80s or lower 90s, sounding profiles show only
marginal CAPE with isothermal temp profiles around 700 mb. Thus, the
thinking would be only showers with perhaps an isolated storm. Low-
end chance or slight chance PoPs continue Monday night with
overnight lows around 70 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming somewhat unsettled by mid week but drier than the past
couple of weeks.

- Afternoon high temperatures return to the mid-upper 90s by the
end of the work week.

The forecast in the mid-late week period looks quite repetitive with
diurnal chances of showers/storms each day. The synoptic pattern
will be characterized by broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS with westerly or NW flow aloft. At the surface, high
pressure remains offshore with a sfc lee trough setting up each
day. General thinking is convection sets up across the W in the
afternoon and slowly spreads E in the evening hours. However, it
is difficult to time subtle features in the flow aloft which
could favor slightly higher coverage one day over the other.
Have therefore painted broad 20-40% PoPs for most areas Tuesday-
Friday. It is interesting to note that precip fields from most
of the global models show MCS activity every day developing in
the Midwest states, spreading E/SE into the overnight hours.
While most of this would be expected to stay or decay W of the
area, will need to keep an eye on this as we get closer in case
any of these act to spark any downstream convective activity.
Either way, aerial QPF looks much lighter than this past
unsettled week and the days 1-7 WPC QPF forecast has 1" or less
for most of the area. Of course, locally higher amounts will be
likely in any storms.

Highs Tuesday in the mid 80s with a good amount of clouds around,
with upper 80s-around 90 F for Wednesday. Shortwave ridging/rising
upper heights look to develop by Thursday and Friday, suggesting a
more pronounced warming trend. The blended guidance has highs in the
low 90s Thursday and low-mid 90s Friday and see no reason to deviate
from this. Overnight lows average in the lower 70s through the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

Prevailing VFR is expected through the 12z TAF period. Brief
light rain could still occur at ECG through about 13-14z.
Otherwise, clouds are clearing quickly from NW to SE this
morning and expecting very good flying wx today. Could see some
FEW-SCT aftn CU (bases 5-6k ft AGL), especially inland.
Light/calm winds this morning become NE 5-10 kt this aftn (10-15
kt at ECG).

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persist through the weekend
with drier conditions behind the cold front. Isolated
showers/storms may return inland Monday, with higher confidence
in a somewhat unsettled pattern mid to late week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Tranquil marine conditions prevail this weekend.

- Benign marine conditions continue much of next week outside of any
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

1023mb high pressure is centered N of the Mid-Atlantic region over
upstate NY early this morning. Meanwhile, an old front and weak low
pressure are located off the Carolina coast. The wind is NE 5-10kt
north and 10-15kt south. Seas range from ~2ft north to 3-4ft south,
with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure remains centered N
of the region today into tonight, and then settles into the region
Sunday. The wind will initially remain NE 5-10kt north to 10-15kt
south today, and then shift to N 5-10kt tonight into early Sunday,
before becoming sea-breeze dominant by Sunday aftn. High pressure
settles offshore Monday and remains off the Southeast coast through
at least later next week. The wind becomes SSW, mainly 10-15kt for
the ocean and Bay, and 5-10kt elsewhere. Seas will remain 3-4ft
initially off the Currituck Outer Banks this morning, before
subsiding to ~3ft by this aftn. Otherwise, seas will mainly be 2-3ft
Sunday into much of next week, although seas could briefly build to
3-4ft Monday night N of Parramore Is. with a slight enhancement in
the SSW wind. Waves in the Ches. Bay will mainly be 1 to
occasionally 2ft for much of the period, and locally 2-3ft in the
mouth of the Bay this morning. Chances of primarily aftn/evening
showers/tstms return Tuesday through later next week.

A moderate risk for rip currents will be continued for the southern
beaches today as the wind remains NE 10-15kt, with nearshore waves
~3ft. A low risk returns Sunday as the wind becomes light and sea-
breeze with nearshore waves subsiding to ~2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ