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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KAKQ 250921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
521 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will affect western portions of the region
this afternoon into this evening. A warm front followed by a
cold front will affect the area Sunday afternoon through Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 520 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, dry weather was across the region, but the
sky ranged from mostly clear to cloudy due to areas of fog (some
dense) and BKN/OVC stratus. Temps were ranging through the 60s
into the lower 70s.

Areas of fog (some dense) and BKN/OVC stratus will prevail in
many locations until 12/13Z this morning. Will monitor
observations in the next hour or two to see if dense fog becomes
more widespread, and may need a Dense Fog Advisory in certain
locations. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Lower MD and
VA ern shore until 9 am this morning. Otherwise, the sky should
become at least partly sunny from later this morning into early
this evening. Warm and humid with highs ranging through the 80s
(mid to upper 80s inland/Piedmont). A sfc trough will affect
wrn portions of the region this aftn into this evening, possibly
triggering isolated to sctd showers or tstms. No severe wx is
expected. Any remnant showers or tstms will end by late this
evening, with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky tonight. Lows
in the lower to mid 60s with at least some additional potential
for fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...

- Isolated to sctd showers/tstms will be possible Sunday
  afternoon into Monday morning, with more widespread showers
  and thunderstorms expected Monday into Monday evening with a
  cold front. A few storms could be strong to severe.

A warm front followed by a cold front will affect the area
Sun aftn through Mon night. The warm front will trigger isolated
to sctd showers/tstms Sun aftn into Mon morning. Very warm and
humid Sun with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s.

Anomalous upper troughing will then push a cold front toward and
across the region Mon through Mon night. This favors higher
coverage of showers and storms, with some potential for strong-
severe storms if the FROPA timing is aligned with the daytime
heating window. GFS/ECMWF both show surface-based CAPE increasing
to 1500-2500 J/kg, combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear.
Decent southerly flow and warm advection will push most areas
into the mid to upper 80s again (lower 80s eastern shore) for
highs. Highest coverage of convection shifts E/SE into the
evening hours Mon, with continuing chances for strong/severe
storms. Rain should be off the coast by early Tue morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 425 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Trending cooler and more comfortable for the middle and end of
  next week.

A relatively deep trough will drop into and remain positioned
over the ern CONUS for Wed through Fri. Except for a slight
chance of a shower/tstm over nrn portions of the area Wed aftn
into Wed evening, dry weather will prevail through the extended
period. Highs on Tue will still be in the lower to mid 80s, with
any appreciable "cold" advection holding off until Wed night.
Highs on Wed will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Comfortable
conditions under a partly to mostly sunny sky expected for Thu
and Fri, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tue night in
the upper 50s to mid 60s, and in the 50s to near 60 Wed/Thu
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...

Main concern at all TAF sites through 12-13z this morning will
be for IFR/LIFR CIGs and/or VSBYS from fog. Expect conditions to
improve to VFR at all sites by 14/15z. Mainly VFR conditions
will prevail from midday today into Sun morning. However,
isolated shower/storm could affect RIC or possibly SBY later
today into this evening, which may produce brief sub-VFR
conditions.

Outlook: Widely sctd to sctd showers/storms will then be possible
later Sun into Mon evening. Outside of storms, expecting mainly
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and
  evening) through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions across the local waters early this
morning, with high pressure in place over the region. Winds are
NNW 5-10 kt winds this morning with waves 1 ft or less and seas
1-2 ft. Winds remain light this morning, with afternoon
seabreeze circulations likely to veer winds around to become
onshore, with south to southeast winds returning in the later
afternoon and evening/late night hours. This same summer-like
pattern will repeat through the holiday weekend. There will
also be the chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms each day.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued to keep the forecast below SCA criteria. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. Some
more widespread showers and storms will be possible on Memorial
Day (Monday) ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell
behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by
Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back
offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches through the weekend, with moderate
rip risk for northern beaches on Monday with building seas and
more of a shore normal component to wave energy.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ERI/MAM