FXUS61 KAKQ 011920
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today with increasing
storm chances from west to east late in the day into tonight.
The front will be very slow to cross the local area through
Wednesday, with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing.
Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the week into next
weekend as high pressure brings somewhat lower humidity to the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon become more
widespread into this evening and tonight.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across northern
portions of the area and a Slight Risk (level 1 out 5) is in
place for these areas.
- Risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding increases
late this evening into tonight.
An mid-upper trough is slowly advancing eastward through the OH
Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon, while a weak upper low is
spinning just offshore of the SE coast. At the surface, a cold front
extends from southern Quebec through the eastern Great Lakes, and
into the Deep South states. A pre-frontal lee trough has also set up
over the Piedmont region. Given an uncapped low-level atmosphere
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.8-1.9", and breezy SW
flow, a widespread cumulus field has developed over most of the area.
An area of convergence has also developed from the SW corner of our
CWA into the RIC metro and this is where the CU field is
particularly agitated. Radar has shown has sporadic showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing in this area and continued
growth/intensification is possible given the strongly unstable
environment. Otherwise, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s
to lower 90s. With dew points in the 70s, heat indices are hovering
around 100 F. Still not expecting any Heat Advisories this afternoon
given low expected coverage of heat indices ~105 F.
The cold front will slowly advance eastward later this afternoon,
evening, and into tonight. Broad height falls overspread the region
ahead of the front and upper trough, which will lead an increased
coverage of thunderstorms across the region. The highest coverage is
expected across the N and NW, with a marked decrease in
precipitation chances further SE. The greatest bulk wind shear
remains removed from the highest instability (and more behind the
area of greatest convective coverage), so there is some question
regarding the intensity and persistence of strong to severe storms.
However, given the support for ascent at the surface and aloft,
along with MLCAPE up to 3000 J/kg, a few severe storms seem like a
good bet. This is especially the case for storms that develop and
move into our area this afternoon and evening (i.e., prior to
sunset). While a few CAMs delay the arrival of convection until
quite late (after 00z/8 PM), ongoing convective trends suggest
storms are a good bet across the Piedmont and our NW counties by 19-
22z (3-6 PM). Wet microbursts and outflow-forced damaging winds
appear to be the main threat in storms, along with locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning. The (severe) hail threat is quite
low due to meager mid-level lapse rates of 5.5 C/km or less. SPC has
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for roughly the northern half of
the area through 9 PM.
The front enters the area this evening/early tonight, though it
stalls across our CWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning as
the front becomes parallel to the deep-layer flow. With PWATs
remaining near 2" and strengthening 925-850 mb winds, there will
likely be support for continued convection through the night. The
severe potential will tend to drop off with the loss of heating, but
the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding could
tick up as storm training becomes more prevalent. The latest CAMs
are in decent agreement in showing this potential from the SW
Piedmont into the RIC metro/Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.
Considered a flood watch for these areas but held off after
collaboration and the fact that the higher probs for high rain rates
drop off some. WPC has maintained a Slight ERO for roughly the NW
half of the area. PoPs also gradually ramp up across the SE, but
remain 15-20% across NE NC through early Wednesday morning.
Overnight lows tonight generally in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is
possible.
- Turning drier behind the front Thursday.
- Dry and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July holiday.
The trend in the guidance of a slower frontal passage has continued
into today, though there is more agreement now in placement and
timing of potential precip. With the approaching upper trough axis,
PWAT values > 2.00", and the slow-moving nature of the front, there
appears to be ample support for heavy rain across the SE half of the
area Wednesday. Again, the primary hazard Wednesday looks to be
heavy rain and the latest 12z HREF has expanded the footprint of 30-
50% neighborhood probs for 3"/3 hr, which now includes a good
portion of E/SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings show rather weak
flow and weak corfidi upshear vectors, suggesting some potential for
backbuilding storms. WPC has maintained the Slight ERO across SE
VA and NE NC. A Flood Watch may need to be considered by the
overnight shift should this threat continue to look plausible.
In addition, there will likely be additional heating with lower
morning PoPs, especially for southside Hampton Roads and NE NC.
This could allow for some localized strong wind gusts given
moisture laden updrafts in a high PW airmass. While SPC did not
outlook the area with their D2 update, would not be surprised to
eventually have a Marginal Risk (level 1 out 5) issued with
subsequent outlook updates. Lastly, the HRRR shows some modest
low-level shear and hodograph curvature across SE VA/NE NC in
the afternoon/evening (0-1 km SRH of 50-100 m2/s2). Combined
with the lower LCLs from the moisture-rich environment and
elevated 0-3km MLCAPE, a non- zero tornado threat could
materialize. This potential is highly conditional and dependent
on placement of surface features. Nonetheless, something to
monitor into tomorrow.
High temperatures drop into the 80s Wednesday (some areas could
potentially be in the upper 70s) with PoPs ranging from 40-60% N to
70-90% SE with the front lingering over the local area. Overall, NW
zones will tend to see diminishing PoPs by late aftn as drier air
moves in. 01/00z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front pushing SE of
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW values dropping to
well below percent of normal Thursday. A lingering shower or storm
or two is possible across NE NC Thursday afternoon near the decaying
boundary. A secondary cold front also approaches from the N
Thursday. However, PoPs are generally < 15% in other locations given
a drier airmass. High temperatures return to the lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s Thursday. Lows Thursday night drop into the mid to
upper 60s well inland to the low 70s near the coast.
A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper trough axis slides through and high pressure
builds to our N. Highs temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 F
are forecast, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light onshore
flow. Dew points range through the 60s, so it should feel quite
comfortable...despite the warm temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry through the upcoming weekend.
- Becoming hotter once again, but lower dew points will continue
to bring some relief to the area.
Upper ridging will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic by next weekend. Highs trend back toward the 90s, but
dewpoints will be slower to recover and mainly dry conditions are
expected for the Independence Day holiday weekend. More humid
conditions along with low chances of diurnal showers/tstms arrive
early next week well in advance of another cold front moving into
the Great Lakes.
One other thing to monitor will be a weak low offshore of the SE
coast early next week. There is a very low probability this low
could take on some tropical/subtropical characteristics, but most
guidance keeps any moisture well S of the region.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions at the main terminals persists through late
afternoon inland, and through much of the TAF period at ORF/ECG.
A cold front gradually approaches the area this evening, with
some prefrontal showers along the lee trough over the next few
hours. Have continued with PROB30 wording for tstms at RIC and
SBY, particularly from 20-22z through 00-02z, respectively. Not
as confident farther to the SE, have included PROB30 for TSRA at
PHF, but only a PROB30 for -SHRA at ORF/ECG later tonight.
Storms may produce strong to severe winds late this afternoon
into tonight, with the greatest chc for this again at RIC/SBY.
MVFR or IFR VSBYs develop this evening, with MVFR CIGs possible
IN convection, particularly this evening. MVFR/IFR CIGs
spreading across the area overnight RIC/SBY, eventually reaching
SE terminals late tonight or (more likely) into Wed morning. Winds
avg SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt today.
Outlook: The cold front will be slow to cross the region
Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers/storms likely.
These showers/storms will be capable of producing flight
restrictions (mainly due to VSBYs) in heavy rain along with a
chc for some localized strong winds. VFR conditions return
Thursday through Saturday as drier air builds into the region
behind the cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories into effect through early Wednesday
for most of the local waters.
- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through
the extended period.
SW winds have decreased some this afternoon as warmer air moves
over the waters. However, nearshore winds have become gusty to
20-25 kt due to mixing over land. Either way, Small Craft
Advisories are currently in effect for all waters (minus the
upper rivers). Winds should increase everywhere this evening
into tonight as the gradient approaches ahead of a cold front
and 925 mb winds increase to 30-35 kt. The strongest winds
(20-25 kt sustained) are forecast in the lower bay and coastal
waters, with 15-20 kt winds elsewhere. Additionally, locally
stronger winds and higher waves/seas are likely in shower and
storms late tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
for the northern bay and coastal waters offshore of MD through
01z/9 PM. Otherwise, made some minor adjustments to the end
times of SCA headlines, with the lower bay and lower James
extended until 11z/7 AM Wednesday. Waves increase to 2-3 ft
(locally 4 ft lower/mouth of the bay), with seas peaking at 4-6
ft late tonight. Winds diminish quickly by Wednesday afternoon
behind the front, though additional showers and storms are
likely across the SE in the afternoon. Benign marine conditions
will resume by mid- week and are expected to continue through
the holiday weekend.
The rip current risk for today is MODERATE across the northern
beaches (including Ocean City), but has been reduced to LOW
across southern beaches due to weak swell and nearshore waves
only ~1 ft. A LOW risk is expected at all beaches Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:
* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)
- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
634-638-650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AC/SW
CLIMATE...