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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KLWX 270745
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak high pressure will remain to our north through early Sunday,
before becoming established offshore Sunday afternoon. A surface
trough will remain over the area much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Weak high pressure will remain to our north through early Sunday
supporting clear skies, low humidity, and near normal
temperatures in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure center shifts offshore Sunday afternoon with
winds shifting to a more southerly direction resulting in a
warming trend with highs climbing into the low 90s. Dewpoints
will still remain low on Sunday, but will start rising on
Monday.

Upper troughing over the area early next week will support a
surface trough and southerly flow supporting moisture advection
into the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to
increase across southwest areas Monday afternoon with better
chances during the middle of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The upper-level pattern next week looks very messy overall, leading
to daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Generally, a warming trend is expected through the end of the week
as surface high pressure remains offshore, pumping in warm and moist
air into the region all week. Pair this with an upper-level troughs
to our north with several shortwaves moving across the region and
you get daily thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will be a touch
above average for this time of year, but nothing record-shattering.
Highs will range from the upper mid-upper 80s on Tuesday, increasing
to the mid-upper 90s by Friday. Overnight lows will generally be in
the upper 60s to low 70s each night.

As far as hazards go, not seeing any one day that really jumps off
the page as a threat for severe or flooding. These impulses of upper-
level energy look to quickly swing through, so any storms should be
moving fairly quickly, likely not dropping a substantial amount of
rain in any one given place. For severe, it is summer, so any storm
that develops could produce some damaging wind gusts and perhaps
some large hail as well. Again, no day looks really impressive in
terms of severe weather, but you can never rule out an isolated
stronger cell when you have temperatures in the 90s and dew points
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

P6SM SKC through Sunday night. Thunderstorm chances for
Charlottesville beginning Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday will both feature the chance for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the terminals. Winds will
generally be out of the S/SSW at 5-10 knots. However, if
thunderstorms approach any terminal, stronger winds are possible
along with some brief VSBY reductions.

&&

.MARINE...

Light and variable winds expected through Sunday. Strengthening
winds expected Sunday night into next week with SCA conditions
likely from Drum Pt to Smith Pt.

Winds will be out of the S/SSW on both Tuesday and Wednesday at
around 10-15 knots, with gusts potentially approaching SCA criteria
both days in channeled flow up the Chesapeake Bay. This would likely
be during the afternoon/evening hours each day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rising water levels are expected Sunday afternoon into the
middle of next week with minor coastal flooding possible at
Annapolis by Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR