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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KLWX 152054
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift from the mid Mississippi Valley to the
St. Lawrence Valley through Sunday. The trailing strong cold
front will cross from west to east Sunday afternoon. Arctic high
pressure will then build toward the region for the first half
of next week before a coastal low possibly impacts the area
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very changeable weather currently and over the next 24 hours
with multiple hazards, so mainly summarizing the
highlights/changes here.

Earlier expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory across northern
Maryland was brought about by the period of brief moderate to
heavy snow (locally totaling more than an inch) that caused
temperatures to wet bulb at or below freezing. As warmer air has
moved in aloft, some of these locations remain near 32, so a
light glaze of freezing rain is possible. This colder than
progged aspect also applied to northern portions of the Potomac
Highlands (where the snow band also tracked), but those areas
were already under an advisory. However, that does mean an
extension could be in order this evening. Elsewhere, areas at or
below freezing are more isolated...generally along the ridges
as forecast.

Flood Watch remains in effect. The latest guidance suggests the
highest rain totals will be across Highland, Augusta, Nelson,
and Albemarle Counties.

The most favorable areas for fog development tonight appear to
be east of the Blue Ridge as rain tapers to drizzle overnight.
West of the Blue Ridge may remain a bit more mixed and warmer.

The main convective fine line is forecast to move through during
the late morning/early afternoon when much of the area may
remain in the stable wedge airmass. That puts the severe weather
risk in question. Either way, lightning will be limited, so it
will be important to stay weather aware for changing conditions.

Highest confidence in High Wind Warning criteria (58 mph gusts) is
in the mountains but did not want to go with a partial upgrade.
To the east, there is some uncertainty about how much mixing
will occur when the strong winds are aloft (generally
along/ahead of the cold front). Behind the cold front, it's a
small window to thread the needle between the strong winds
aloft, pressure rises, and setting sun. Did add counties across
our southern tier to a Wind Advisory. Even if 45-plus mile per
hour gusts are isolated, saturated soils could aid in tree
damage occurring.

Behind the front, precipitation will change to snow in the
upslope areas along and west of the Allegheny Front. This snow
may be heavy at times as steep lapse rates cool into the DGZ.
This snow will also be overlapping with the strongest winds.
Therefore, upgraded the favored upslope zones into a Blizzard
Warning in lieu of a High Wind Warning. The remainder of the
western zones were added to a Winter Weather Advisory for a
combination of accumulating and blowing snow.

Even though high temperatures will show the mid 50s to mid 60s
on Sunday, expect this to be a brief spike in the vicinity of
the frontal passage for a lot of areas.

Previous discussion:

The next system is bringing a prolonged period of unsettled
weather to the area through Monday, producing multiple weather
hazards locally. At upper levels, a potent shortwave is assuming
a positive tilt as it ejects out over the Southern Plains, and
then eventually a negative tilt as it progresses northeastward
toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Sunday. Such an evolution
is causing an area of low pressure to form over Arkansas, and
then rapidly intensify as it tracks northeastward through the
Ohio and Saint Lawrence River Valleys tonight into Sunday.

A prolonged period of warm advection/overrunning will continue
through this evening. A bit of a lull (with some leftover
drizzle/fog) will likely occur overnight, before a second round
of precipitation moves through on Sunday in association with
strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection driven ascent
ahead of the upper trough. A strong cold front will move through
Sunday afternoon, which may bring another round of scattered
showers, with strong cold advection and northwesterly winds
ensuing behind the front.

Warmer air should move in at the surface across the entire area
during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Precipitation
should be rain for all tonight through Sunday morning except
perhaps on isolated ridges.

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for for these areas
until 7 PM. Again, it's worth emphasizing that this will be an
elevation driven event, with little to no impact expected in the
valleys.

Heavy Rainfall/Flooding: This system is expected to produce a
broad one to two inches of precipitation across much of the
area. This precipitation will be spread out over a prolonged
period of time, so most locations aren't expected to have issues
with flooding. The exception will be in the Alleghenies, and
then eastward into Augusta County, where a combination of that
rainfall and snowmelt could lead to isolated instances of
flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for those locations
this evening through Sunday afternoon.

High Winds: As low pressure rapidly deepens and tracks off to
our north, strong winds are expected in its wake. The system's
cold front will move through the area Sunday afternoon. Given
extremely strong pressure rises and a robust LLJ, gusty to
damaging winds appear increasingly likely within northwesterly
flow behind the front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across
the entire area. The strongest gusts are most likely for a few
hours behind the initial frontal passage, though gusty winds
(advisory caliber perhaps) may very well linger into Sunday
night/Monday.

Severe Thunderstorm Threat: Although instability is expected to
be rather limited, up to a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is progged
by some hi-res guidance near and east of I-95 and especially
into southern MD right ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon.
This, combined with the very strong forcing and low-level wind
fields, results in a marginal (level 1 of 5) threat of both
convectively-enhanced damaging wind gusts as well as a brief,
isolated tornado.

Upslope Snow: Upslope snow is also expected in the Alleghenies
behind the front late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  The
current forecast has increased to 4-8 inches of snow from late
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The combination of high
winds and snow will produce near blizzard conditions at times
late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday night, the earlier cold front will continue to race off
into the western Atlantic as high pressure builds in the wake.
Impressive regional pressure gradients are noted with a 970-mb low
near Nova Scotia and a 1030-mb anticyclone across the Missouri
Valley. The net gradient formed by these features will maintain a
gusty wind field into the night. Model soundings support a reduction
in the depth of vertical mixing, but do still show quite a bit of
wind in the lowest 1,000 feet. As such, expect westerly winds to
gust around 30 to 40 mph overnight, with 45 to 60 mph gusts across
higher elevations.

These winds will also aid in a continued upslope regime with
moderate to heavy snow showers along and west of the Allegheny
Front. Whiteout to near blizzard conditions are possible at times.
Blizzard Warnings will be issued over Garrett and western portions
of Grant and Pendleton counties. Area wide low temperatures are
forecast to fall into the mid/upper 20s, accompanied by teens in the
mountains. Blustery winds will aid in wind chills falling to near 0
degrees along the Alleghenies.

For Monday, the mentioned upslope pattern persists with snow showers
continuing through the afternoon hours. Froude numbers rise
considerably which suggests there may be some spillover effect into
downstream locations. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies for
locations east of the Alleghenies. Compressional warming from
downslope effects should help bring high temperatures into the mid
30s to low 40s (upper teens to 20s across the mountains). Synoptic
gradients remain tight enough to keep a blustery wind in the picture
for Monday. Afternoon gusts could easily push into the 25 to 40 mph
range, locally higher in the terrain. Residual gusty winds should
reduce in strength after dark with a cold night ahead. Forecast low
temperatures on Monday night will be in the upper teens to mid 20s.
The usual cold spot should be along the Allegheny Front where lows
in the single digits to mid teens will be more commonplace.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwesterly flow will continue to transport below normal
temperatures into the area on Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected,
with high temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s for most.

By Wednesday into Thursday, attention will turn to a potential
winter storm. Most guidance has the system's area of low pressure
tracking through the Deep South on Wednesday before deepening off
the Carolina Coast Wednesday night, and then tracking off toward our
northeast on Thursday. Confidence is increasing for snow across the
area somewhere during the Wednesday/Thursday time window, with
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning currently looking like
the most favorable time period for snow. What remains in question is
just how much snow will fall. While several of the 12z deterministic
models depict a significant snowstorm during that time window,
ensembles continue to show considerable spread with respect to snow
totals, which is to be expected this far out in time. The flow
pattern leading up to this event has a lot of moving parts. This
weekend's system, the large upper low currently in place over
Canada, and an upper trough currently located in the Gulf of Alaska
will all influence the upcoming event during the middle of the week.
Possibilities at the moment range from a system that largely remains
suppressed to our south, with just a couple inches of snow, to a
major snowstorm with over a foot of snow. Model guidance should
slowly come into better agreement with respect to where we'll lie
within that range of possible solutions as we move closer to the
event.

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures are expected within
northwesterly flow on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain has overspread the area, and the threat for any wintry
precipitation types has ended. Conditions have dropped to MVFR,
and ceilings are expected to lower further to IFR/LIFR through
tonight. There may be a bit of a lull in rain overnight, which
could allow fog to develop, especially across the metro
terminals. Another round of rain moves through on Sunday
morning, which could be accompanied by heavier convective
elements and possibly gustier winds. Behind this band of
showers, southerly winds may increase. Ceilings are also likely
to improve during this time. More scattered showers could occur
along the cold front, but the bigger story will be the wind
shift and increase in gusts. Gusts to near 45 knots or even a
little higher may be possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening, with gusts of 30-35 knots possibly lingering overnight.
Timing for Sunday was somewhat generalized in the 18Z TAFs and
may be adjusted/refined in later issuances.

VFR conditions are expected from late Sunday into Monday/Monday
night. The strong wind gusts behind the cold front persist into the
night with westerly gusts around 25 to 35 knots possible. Winds turn
a bit more west-northwesterly on Monday with afternoon gusts up to
around 35 knots. Some spillover snow showers could push east of the
Alleghenies, but it remains to be seen if these impact KMRB.
Eventually winds slowly decrease into Monday evening/night.

VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday. Sub-
VFR conditions and snow are expected on Wednesday, along with north
to northeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain east to southeasterly through Sunday morning.
With light winds and warm/moist air moving over the cold waters,
locally dense marine fog could develop overnight into Sunday
morning. Winds will increase to SCA strength or perhaps even
brief gale Sunday morning particularly over the mid bay. A line
of strong showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could also produce
strong wind gusts during the late morning to early afternoon.
Then, a strong cold front will move through Sunday afternoon.
Gale to even storm force gusts appear likely behind that front
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Gale Warnings remain in
effect for now, but portions may be upgraded to Storm Warnings
if confidence increases.

Gale conditions continue Sunday night into much of Monday across the
area waterways with gusts up to 35 to 40 knots possible. Current
Gale Warnings are in effect until 4 PM Monday. Those with plans to
be on the water should reconsider given dangerous conditions
expected. The strength of west-northwesterly winds drop off into
Monday evening and night, but there will likely be a need for Small
Craft Advisories during this transition period.

SCA conditions will likely linger through much of Tuesday in
northwesterly flow. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in north to
northeasterly flow on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Remaining snow pack combined with temps rising to 45-55, dew
points into the 40s, and rainfall of one to locally two inches
tonight into Sunday results in a risk for flooding. Scattered
instances of flooding may result. Overall, the QPF trend has
been down the past several cycles, but individual CAMs have
stripes of higher 2-3 inch values which could still plausibly
cause flooding, especially across Highland and Augusta Counties.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for MDZ008.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ001-
     003>006-501-502-507.
     Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Sunday afternoon
     for MDZ001-501.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 3 PM EST Monday for
     MDZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 3 PM EST Monday
     for MDZ501.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
     for MDZ501-502.
VA...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for VAZ025>031-040-053-054-501-505>508-526-527.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     VAZ025>031-036-037-503-504-507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 3 PM EST Monday
     for VAZ503.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
     for VAZ503-504.
     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for VAZ025-503-504.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for VAZ036>039-
     050-051-055>057-502.
WV...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for WVZ050>053-055.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Sunday afternoon
     for WVZ503.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 3 PM EST Monday for
     WVZ501-505.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 3 PM EST Monday
     for WVZ503.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
     for WVZ502>504-506.
     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for WVZ501-502-505-506.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ530>543.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for ANZ530.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF/KJP
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/KJP
MARINE...ADS/BRO/KJP
HYDROLOGY...LWX