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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KPBZ 270534
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
134 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, comfortable and dry this weekend as high pressure remains
parked over the region. Continued warm next week, but rain
chances will increase.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Continued dry, comfortable and warm.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Overnight period in good shape. No major changes needed.

Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge
drifts over the upper Midwest. Surface high pressure will move
across the Great Lakes, providing an east-northeast surface
flow, which will keep surface dewpoints in the comfortable
range. With lots of sun, deep mixing, and a dry surface,
temperatures across the region will warm into the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and hot Sunday.
- Rain chances slowly increase Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Upper level ridging will continue on Sunday as an interesting
blocking pattern develops. A cutoff low will develop over the
Atlantic, off the NJ/New England coast. As this low deepens,
another weak upper low will dig into the Midwest. This will
place the region in an area of strong subsidence between the
systems. Low level warm advection will increase Sunday as the
flow becomes southerly. However, lots of dry air will be
advected into the region in the mid and upper levels with a
northerly flow on the backside of the Atlantic low. This should
allow temperatures to warm even more on Sunday with deep mixing,
lots of sunshine and dewpoints holding relatively low. Sunday
looks like a good day to go above the NBM mean. Latest NBM probs
for temps > 90 are 60 to 80% for locations south of I-80 and
west of the ridges. Think going with the NBM 75th percentile for
highs on Sunday is a good bet.

Models are still trying to figure out what to do with the
Atlantic upper low on Monday. There is some difference in the
clustering, but the hedge is toward the upper low remaining
near the east coast with a shift northward on Monday afternoon.
This solution would slow and weaken the trough to the west,
leading toward a drier day with less cloud cover. This would
also point to warmer highs on Monday as well.

NBM brings PoPs into OH/N WV Monday morning then spreads them
northeastward in the afternoon. Seeing likely PoPs in the far
western Ohio counties Tuesday afternoon as well. Looking at the
NBM probs, rainfall looks light. Probs of >0.01 inches Monday
afternoon generally range from 20 to 60%, however, looking at
the probs >0.10 the numbers drop to 10 to 40%. So the risk for
rainfall is increasing Monday, due to the approaching trough
from the west, but the rainfall looks to be light as the trough
is weakening and flattening as it bangs into the subsidence to
the west of the Atlantic upper low.

Temps will be a little tricky on Monday depending on how fast
the cloud cover spreads across the region. Latest NBM is leaning
warmer north and east of the areas of higher PoPs and this looks
reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few rounds of disturbances pass into the middle of next
  week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Increased rain chances continue through mid-week as a series of
disturbances cross the region under a low amplitude trough
under-cut by warm moist southwest flow. This pattern is
climatologically supportive of severe weather chances, although
many of the details may not be resolved until next week draws
closer. Machine learning continues to paint a broad-brushed,
low probability severe threat by mid-week.

With flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies,
prominent wildfire smoke could make another return to the Pittsburgh
region, though fine details are usually resolved with two days lead
time.

As of the most recent update, it appears that clusters are
backing off the idea of extreme heat in the northeast to start
off August. All clusters now retrograde the ridge axis back
into the west, maintaining troughing in the east. This setup is
less susceptible to extreme heat, but CPC maintains the moderate
risk of excessive heat for now. Will continue to monitor for
changes in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected with high confidence through the TAF period as
high pressure builds across the region. Early morning river
valley steam fog is expected, though there is a low probability
(<20%) that any TAF sites will be affected. The CU rule and
model soundings indicate a few diurnal cumulus clouds will
develop again Saturday as light NE wind veers to the E.

.Outlook...
VFR will continue through the weekend under high pressure.
Periodic restriction potential in showers/thunderstorms returns
Monday through Wednesday with a slow moving trough of low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/MLB/Milcarek
AVIATION...WM/MLB