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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KPHI 020535
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1235 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure remains centered to our south and southwest, a
weak system slides by Delmarva tonight. High pressure crests
across our area later Tuesday into Wednesday, then low pressure
tracks to our north later Wednesday and Thursday pulling a cold
front our area. Strong high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley
Friday into Saturday before weakening into our area through
Sunday. A weak low pressure system and front may slide by later
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The light rain and/or light snow over southern Delaware is
tapering off, and skies will clear out into daybreak. Another
cold night on tap for the region with lows edging into the
teens north and west of I-95 and perhaps in the Pine Barrens of
NJ, and the 20s elsewhere.

High pressure builds in a little bit from the southwest on
Monday, but the northwest flow picks up a little too, and with
the upper trough overhead, a few snow showers may try to make
their way into the Poconos later in the day. For now have kept
this out of the forecast but its worth keeping our eye on. Highs
look a bit more uniform than today, with near 40 across much of
the region, except low 30s in the Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold pattern continues.

The axis of an upper-level trough is forecast to cross our area
Monday night, however cyclonic flow aloft continues through Tuesday
before it weakens Tuesday night. High pressure will build to our
southwest and south with time then also extend across our area
briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday. Much of this time frame looks
to be on the dry and chilly/cold side, with perhaps a few snow
showers extending into the Poconos Tuesday given ongoing eastern
Great Lakes activity. Most of this activity should stay farther west
though given light enough flow aloft. The passage of the trough axis
aloft may result in some more clouds across parts of the area into
Tuesday.

A stronger upper-level trough is forecast to approach Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will support surface low pressure initially
across or just north of the Great Lakes as it shifts eastward
through Wednesday night. The track of this surface low is forecast
to be well to our north, however the strength of the incoming trough
and associated height falls should start to generate some forcing
for ascent later Wednesday from west to east. The moisture however
looks to be more limited especially with a southern extent and
therefore how much precipitation is less certain. Most of the day
Wednesday should be dry with any precipitation focused during
Wednesday night. It looks cold enough across the far north for all
snow with some mixing farther south to perhaps all rain even farther
south given low-level warm air advection. Kept Pops at likely across
the far north (generally the I-80 corridor) and then these taper
down through chance and slight chance quickly southward. Given the
quick movement and limited moisture overall, any precipitation
should be on the light side and this could include some light snow
accumulations mainly across the Pocono region. The low to mid level
flow increases ahead of this system, therefore a breeze will
increase especially later Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...Another shot of cold air along with windy conditions
to end the week. Some slight warming by the end of the weekend.

Synoptic Overview...A strong upper-level trough is forecast to pivot
across the East Thursday into Friday, then weaken some over the
weekend. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to track well to
our our north Thursday however a cold front sweeps through. The low
deepens into the Canadian Maritimes Friday as strong high pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley. The high builds closer to our area over
the weekend but weakens, however a quick moving but weak low may
track nearby over the weekend.

For Thursday and Friday...A strong upper-level trough is forecast to
pivot across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday before
weakening some on Friday. This will drive strengthening surface low
pressure well to our north with it moving into the Canadian
Maritimes Thursday night into Friday. Given the surface low tracking
well to our north, most of the forcing and moisture should be to our
north however strong shortwave energy within the trough will move
across our area Thursday morning. This may be enough to keep some
rain or snow showers going to start the day before notably drier air
moves in. The main sensible weather is an increasing westerly wind
especially in the wake of a cold front. Strengthening and deepening
cold air advection, stronger flow, deeper mixing and a tightening
pressure gradient will all result in breezy to windy conditions. As
of now, looks like winds stay below Wind Advisory criteria with peak
wind gusts of 30-40 mph. The winds should diminish some Thursday
night, however a notable breeze should be maintained given the
synoptic setup. It will turn colder in the wake of the cold front as
well with widespread 20s Thursday night, then highs Friday only in
the 30s for most (20s in the Poconos). A gusty west-northwest wind
continues Friday adding an extra chill factor, however the winds may
not be as strong as Thursday.

For Saturday and Sunday...While the upper-level trough is forecast
to not be as strong over the weekend, another shortwave may sharpen
the trough some Saturday. It will be on the chilly to cold side,
however with some less amplification of the trough the temperatures
should start to rebound at least a little Sunday. In addition, the
aforementioned shortwave within the main trough may support a weak
surface low nearby and some precipitation cannot be ruled out. The
winds will be much less as the pressure gradient is weak with
surface high pressure starting to extend toward or into our area
from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Overnight...VFR. Clouds early KMIV/KACY. Winds W-NW around 5
knots. High confidence.

Monday...VFR. Northwest wind 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible along with a
chance of some rain/snow showers mainly at night.

Thursday...Any sub-VFR conditions improve to VFR. West winds 15-20
knots with gusts 30-35 knots.

Friday...VFR. West-northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-30
knots, diminishing in the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below advisory levels through Monday
across all coastal waters. Westerly to northwesterly winds of
10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots and seas of 2-4 feet are
expected throughout the period.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be
mostly below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions develop, with gales
possible at night.

Thursday and Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions. An increasing
chance for gale conditions especially Thursday and Thursday
night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MPS/RCM
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS/RCM
MARINE...Gorse/RCM