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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KRLX 270912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
512 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry with unseasonably warm afternoons for the weekend.
Unsettled and cooler weather returns the beginning of the new
work week. Warming trend and unsettled weather from midweek on.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

Some valley fog/stratus can be expected early this morning, more
likely in and near the mountains.

A surface high pressure system will remain over the area today
and tonight, providing dry weather. Afternoon temperatures will
be above normal for this time of year.

Some river valley fog will form again Sunday morning, once again
more likely in and near the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Starting Sunday temperatures will reach above seasonable in the
low 90's across most of the lowlands and mid 70's to mid 80's
across the mountains. Heat indices will stay below advisory
criteria due to the low dewpoints expected creating a
no hazard dry heat. High pressure will back off and allow
precipitation chances to enter the area from the west by late
Sunday. This activity will be associated with an upper level
trough sliding in from west to east throughout the period
promoting shower and storm activity, especially during the
afternoon and evening.

There is no excessive rainfall threat and any rainfall will be
beneficial and we are not expecting too much rain with the most
across the southern coal fields, southeast WV and southwest VA
where amounts could get up to an inch or more through the
period. Due to the overall lack of steering flow and high PWATS
we could have some training cells or slow movers that could
cause some localized water issue, especially in low lying or
flood prone areas.

Temperatures for Monday will fall down to below seasonable for
a nice cool down with the lowlands mainly in the low 80's and
the mountains in the low to upper 70's.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Another day for Tuesday with below average temperatures
although only slightly below, however still a nice comfortable
day. The area will still be under the influence of the upper
level trough. This combined with a low traversing northwest of
the area will add to unsettled weather and will possibly have a
weak frontal boundary enter the area Tuesday into Wednesday
keeping shower and thunderstorm activity on the table. Once the
boundary exits Wednesday things area not looking like a total
washout, but central guidance does keep PoPs high for
precipitation and thunderstorm potential, therefore we can have
some diurnal activity but thinking the rest of the time
activity will be low.

For Thursday and Friday, models are struggling with bringing
another disturbance into the region which may or may not impact
the area. With the upper level trough exiting toward the east
and upper level ridging building in we may not see too much
activity other than diurnal going into the weekend. Therefore
accepted a blended model solution for the rest of the extended
period which kept us unsettled with higher chances of shower
and thunderstorms than previous forecast packages.

We may finally get some beneficial rain as WPC has us in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday
where we may see some beneficial rain to try and fight off this
drought we are in. Shower or thunderstorm activity will have
plenty of moisture to work with along with slow steering which
may influence the amount of rainfall we get out of heavy
dumpers adding to the QPF amounts which are already up there in
forecast amounts for the rest of the period from WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 510 AM Saturday...

After the dense river valley fog burns off, expect a VFR cumulus
deck today.

VFR conditions can be expected this evening. Dense river valley
fog is expected to develop again tonight, once again mainly in
and near the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing fog lifting could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 07/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR under river valley fog Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY