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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KRLX 251050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
650 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front arrives this evening, and stalls across our north through
Sunday. This will keep showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend.
Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

Low level south to southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching
cold front today. Moisture advection and afternoon heating will
destabilize the atmosphere with surface CAPE values reaching 3500
J/Kg under a low to none shear. Local soundings show a dry column
within a tall skinny CAPE signature. With PWATs about 1.5 inches,
this environment could lead to isolated to scattered slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms some with heavy rain and associated
localized water issues. WPC has most of the area under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, SPC has a marginal risk
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong gusty winds and large hail.
Allowed chance PoPs for afternoon convection, tapering off by
midnight.

The aforementioned cold front arrives to the Middle Ohio valley this
evening, stalling across our northern sections tonight into Sunday
morning. Upper level flow becomes diffluent with no noticeable
shortwaves passing tonight. However, cannot ruled out
convection activity along the stationary front tonight, but the
lack of forcing and heating should keep confidence low. Abundant
low level moisture, calm flow and breaks in the sky will allow
for radiational cooling and associated dense fog mainly along
river valleys late tonight into Sunday morning.

Under plenty of sunshine, afternoon temperatures warm up into the
mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s for the higher terrain. Lows
tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled, with severe storms possible Sunday and potential
  for localized flooding through Memorial Day.

A frontal boundary, which will be draped across the area Sunday
morning, is expected to lift north as a warm front during the day
while a low departs the Central Plains and gravitates towards the
Great Lakes. Following the departure of the front, southerly
flow will transport warm and moist air into the area resulting
in increasing chances of both rain and thunderstorms as the day
progresses. Strong storms may develop as instability peaks
during the afternoon and evening hours. Most favorable
conditions for severe weather are expected to reside within the
southwest part of the CWA, where scattered to possibly numerous
severe storms are possible. The risk lessens further to the
north and east, with isolated severe storms possible across the
middle of the CWA and general thunderstorms expected for the
northeast mountains. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main
concerns for the area, though a low risk of tornadoes is also
present over portions of southeast OH, northeast KY, and
southwest WV. Precipitable water values ranging from 1 to 2
inches should also support heavy downpours which could lead to
localized flash flooding, especially in areas already impacted
by heavy rain earlier in the weekend. Therefore, WPC has
included the forecast area in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall (at least 15% chance of flash flooding).

A cold front associated with the aforementioned low is projected to
cross the CWA on Monday. Showers and storms, some of which
could become severe, should continue ahead of and along the
front and then diminish in coverage as the front exits to the
east Monday night. Flooding remains a concern for Monday as
this additional rain falls over increasingly saturated ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled through mid week, quieter and drier late week.

An upper level trough remains present over the eastern US through
the middle of the work week, with periods of showers and storms
expected to occur as shortwaves pivot through the trough. High
pressure begins building in from the northwest on Thursday,
then continues to build while troughing recedes from the area on
Friday. This should result in a drier conclusion to the work
week.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s in the
lowlands and 60s to mid 70s along the mountains on Tuesday.
Daytime highs may then cool a few degrees for Wednesday and
Thursday before trending warmer again on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM Saturday...

Patchy dense fog will dissipate quickly by 12 or 13Z. For the rest
of the day, expect mostly sunny skies, interrupted by afternoon
convection. Some thunderstorms could become strong to severe and
capable to produce heavy rain in a short period of time. Conditions
will briefly deteriorate under heavier showers or storms to
MVFR/IFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions under light flow will prevail
through at least 03Z.

River valley dense fog or/and low stratus is expected to develop
overnight tonight. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions at most sites roughly
from 06Z through 12-13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection could be more widespread than
expected producing longer periods of IFR/LIFR along their path.
Timing of storms deteriorating conditions at any terminal may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 05/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ