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State Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KRLX 112321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
721 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Storms diminish this evening. Otherwise daily chances for
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue as a
warm and moist airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still looking at
the potential for thunderstorms again this afternoon, however,
expecting less coverage in previous days as drier air aloft may work
to limit development. Best chances for storms still look to be
across the mountainous counties today, with bulk of activity
diminishing overnight, with areas of fog developing once again.
Saturday looks to be more of the same, with more showers and storms
anticipated, particularly during peak heating hours and from passing
weak disturbances, with the bulk of activity diminishing with loss
of heating Saturday night. Overall, not much in the way of severe
risk during the period, but as usual, heavy downpours are expected
with any convection that develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Shower and storm coverage looks to increase a bit from Sunday into
Monday, as a cold front approaches the area, potentially stalling
out at least briefly somewhere in the Ohio River vicinity. Some
storms during this period could be strong to severe, with a damaging
wind threat owing to precip loading. There is also some differences
between models concerning the timing that the front will clear the
area, and drier air is able to take hold, with the potential this
may not occur until Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Drier weather looks to take hold for Tuesday and Wednesday, however,
can't completely rule out isolated shower/storm activity during peak
heating hours, particularly across the mountainous counties.
Otherwise, it will continue to be hot and humid during the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions are expected this afternoon across
most sites. Isolated showers and storms at and nearby BKW at the
time of writing will dissipate or move slowly east of the area
early this evening. Brief periods of IFR visibility are possible
in heavier showers or storms. Otherwise, conditions will return
VFR through at least 06Z.

Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies. Light and variable
winds are expected to become calm tonight. These conditions are
favorable for fog formation, which is anticipated develop
roughly from 06Z to 13Z Saturday morning. This dense fog could
bring IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN, PKB, CKB and the the vicinity
of CRW, and other river valleys and across central and eastern
West Virginia. Outside of the fog-prone river valleys, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the night.

Any dense fog will quickly lift into low stratus or dissipate by
13Z Saturday morning. Widespread VFR conditions are expected on
Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and restrictions associated with fog
could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the overnights.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ