KEZF 142235Z AUTO 20018G44KT 1 3/4SM +RA SCT013 BKN040 OVC095 A2973 RMK AO2 P0012=
Decoded Surface Observations
The weather observed at FREDERICKSB/SHAN, VA (KEZF) at 06:35 PM EDT was: The skies were cloudy. The weather reported was heavy rain. No temperature reported. No dewpoint reported. No relative humidity reported. Winds from the SSW(200 degs) at 21 mph. Altimeter:29.73 inches of mercury. The prevailing visibility was 1.75 miles. There has been 0.12 inches of precipitation in the past hour.
Short Range Forecast
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Zone Forecast
VAZ055-150100- Stafford- Including the cities of Arkendale, Garrisonville, Shiloh, Widewater, Brookfield, Falmouth, and Glendie 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the mid 90s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 50 percent. .JUNETEENTH...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. .SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. VAZ055-150800- Stafford- Including the cities of Arkendale, Garrisonville, Shiloh, Widewater, Brookfield, Falmouth, and Glendie 504 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the mid 90s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 50 percent. .JUNETEENTH...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. .SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
State Forecast
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State Forecast Discussion
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GFS Short-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast
KEZF GFS MOS GUIDANCE 6/14/2026 1800 UTC DT /JUNE 15 /JUNE 16 /JUNE 17 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 68 85 58 84 64 TMP 77 74 72 70 71 77 82 82 76 67 63 60 64 75 81 82 77 70 67 69 89 DPT 71 70 68 66 65 60 56 55 56 56 54 53 54 54 54 55 59 61 61 62 59 CLD OV OV OV BK FW SC SC BK CL CL FW BK SC CL BK BK SC OV OV FW SC WDR 20 20 25 32 33 33 30 30 33 32 33 01 04 07 14 13 13 14 17 24 24 WSP 08 07 05 06 07 09 08 10 07 03 02 02 02 03 03 05 06 04 02 01 09 P06 58 3 0 1 2 2 2 4 12 14 4 P12 60 3 5 4 21 Q06 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 1 0 0 0 0 T06 31/14 2/ 0 0/ 4 0/20 3/12 0/ 3 1/ 6 7/32 7/16 3/ 6 T12 2/ 4 3/22 1/11 9/32 8/ 9 CIG 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
GFS Long-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast
KEZF GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/14/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21|MON CLIMO N/X 68 84| 58 82| 64 93| 71 97| 71 87| 64 80| 61 82| 64 63 85 TMP 72 76| 63 77| 70 86| 77 90| 75 78| 68 74| 66 76| 69 DPT 67 54| 54 59| 64 65| 70 73| 68 61| 58 55| 60 62| 63 CLD OV CL| CL PC| PC PC| OV PC| OV PC| CL CL| CL PC| PC WND 7 10| 6 6| 6 10| 11 17| 14 12| 8 14| 5 7| 10 P12 51 1| 4 8| 22 7| 14 21| 33 24| 12 9| 10 13| 20999999 P24 51| 8| 24| 25| 42| 13| 13| 999 Q12 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 1| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| | T12 19 0| 2 8| 15 17| 19 31| 29 26| 9 7| 9 16| 16 T24 | 2 | 15 | 19 | 41 | 26 | 17 | 19
NGM Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast
Climatological Summary
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Watch and Warning Statment
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Park/Ski Recreation Report/Forecast
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