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The Data originates at the National Weather Service, and is made available here by the UAlbany Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Surface Observations

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Decoded Surface Observations

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Short Range Forecast

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Zone Forecast

VAZ099-160600-
Accomack-
Including the cities of Chincoteague, Wallops Island, and Melfa
545 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Rain. Not as cool with lows in the mid 40s. Southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming south after midnight. Chance of rain
near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Windy, milder.
Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear, windy with lows in the mid 30s. West winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Sunny, windy, colder with highs in the
lower 40s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow
likely in the afternoon. Cold with highs in the lower 30s. Chance
of snow 60 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow, breezy with lows in the upper 20s.
Chance of snow 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Snow likely, mainly in the morning. Windy with highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and windy, cold with lows in the
lower 20s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny and windy, cold with highs in the mid 30s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear and brisk. Lows in the mid 20s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.


State Forecast

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State Forecast Discussion

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GFS Short-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

KMFV   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    2/15/2025  1800 UTC
DT /FEB  16                  /FEB  17                /FEB  18
HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18
N/X              44          65          34          41       26
TMP  48 47 46 46 49 58 59 59 53 46 41 37 34 35 40 41 37 33 31 29 37
DPT  45 44 44 46 49 56 55 50 42 33 27 21 19 17 17 18 21 22 21 19 17
CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL SC CL CL SC OV
WDR  16 17 19 18 19 20 20 24 27 28 29 29 30 30 29 30 29 30 33 33 32
WSP  09 08 05 07 16 19 25 20 17 18 17 17 15 17 16 11 04 05 05 05 08
P06       100    86    83    70     3     3     0     1     1  1  5
P12             100          91           3           1        7
Q06         4     2     2     2     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12               4           3           0           0        0
T06      0/ 2  4/ 0  4/12  5/38  0/ 5  0/ 7  0/10  0/ 4  0/ 4  0/ 4
T12                  4/12        5/41        0/16        0/ 4  0/ 5
POZ   0  1  2  2  2  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1
POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  5 43 67 67 99 79 85 77 68 81 84 88 78
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S
SNW                                       0                    0
CIG   3  3  2  3  3  5  3  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8
VIS   3  3  2  2  2  6  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV  BR BR BR BR FG  N BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

GFS Long-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

KMFV   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/15/2025  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     SUN 16| MON 17| TUE 18| WED 19| THU 20| FRI 21| SAT 22|SUN CLIMO
N/X  43  65| 35  41| 26  38| 23  32| 25  35| 21  38| 28  39| 24 32 50
TMP  49  53| 35  35| 28  30| 25  31| 27  31| 23  33| 29  33| 26
DPT  49  42| 20  19| 18  21| 18  26| 23  18| 14  22| 22  21| 18
CLD  OV  PC| CL  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| OV  PC| CL
WND  17  27| 18  16|  5   8|  7  12| 16  20| 14  12| 16  27| 10
P12 100  89|  4   3|  5  14| 14  68| 78  40| 12   9| 26  19|  8999999
P24     100|     11|     14|     75|     83|     15|     26|      999
Q12   4   2|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  5   1|  0   0|       |
Q24       4|      0|      0|      3|      5|      0|       |
T12   5   3|  0   0|  0   1|  1   1|  5   1|  0   0|  1   1|  1
T24        |  4    |  1    |  2    |  5    |  2    |  1    |  2
PZP   2   0|  0   0|  0   4|  6  18| 28   7| 10   7|  9   6|  5
PSN   0   0| 33  75| 70  89| 66  58| 50  76| 64  73| 54  63| 50
PRS   1   0| 35   5| 19   4| 12  11|  4   5|  2   1|  4   3|  5
TYP   R   R| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  Z   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S
SNW       0|      0|      0|      4|      8|      0|       |

NGM Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

Climatological Summary

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Watch and Warning Statment

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Park/Ski Recreation Report/Forecast

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