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The Data originates at the National Weather Service, and is made available here by the UAlbany Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Surface Observations

KMFV 162055Z AUTO 23009G16KT 10SM CLR 33/24 A2984 RMK AO2 6//// T03330235=

Decoded Surface Observations


The weather observed at MELFA/ACCOMACK, VA (KMFV) at 04:55 PM EDT was:
  The skies were clear.
  Temperature: 91F ( 33C)  Dewpoint:  75F ( 24C)  Relative Humidity:  59%
  Winds from the SW (230 degs) at 10 mph.
  Altimeter:29.84 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 10 miles.

Short Range Forecast

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Zone Forecast

VAZ099-170200-
Accomack-
Including the cities of Chincoteague, Wallops Island, and Melfa
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny. Near steady temperature in the
lower 90s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Heat index values up to
108.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Humid with lows in the upper 70s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat
index values up to 106 early in the evening.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the lower
90s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of rain 20 percent. Heat index values up to 108.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid with
lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. Heat index values up to
101 early in the evening.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A
chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the
afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper 80s. West winds around
10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Lows around 70. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy
with a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s.
Chance of rain 30 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of
rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of
rain 50 percent.


State Forecast

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State Forecast Discussion

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GFS Short-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

KMFV   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    7/16/2024  1200 UTC
DT /JULY 16/JULY 17                /JULY 18                /JULY 19
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    80          94          76          85    69
TMP  95 95 88 84 84 82 85 89 92 92 86 81 79 78 79 80 82 82 77 71 74
DPT  74 75 77 77 76 76 78 76 76 77 77 76 75 74 74 73 72 70 71 69 70
CLD  CL CL CL SC SC FW BK BK SC SC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK
WDR  21 19 19 20 22 21 22 23 21 19 20 24 24 26 29 29 29 35 12 24 02
WSP  10 12 09 08 07 07 08 11 12 14 12 10 07 06 04 05 05 04 02 01 04
P06         0     0     5     6    23    48    26    30    29 23 29
P12                     5          25          64          41    38
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     2     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     0           0           2           1     0
T06     15/20 15/11  3/ 2  7/ 3 28/21 28/ 9 15/ 0 14/ 1 20/ 6 11/ 0
T12           18/20        7/ 4       49/24       24/ 3    26/ 7
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  6  8  4  7  4  6  6  8  7  8
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  6  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

GFS Long-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

KMFV   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/16/2024  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23|WED CLIMO
N/X  80  94| 76  85| 69  84| 70  87| 71  88| 72  88| 74  88| 74 69 87
TMP  85  86| 79  77| 74  77| 76  78| 78  80| 78  80| 79  81| 79
DPT  78  77| 74  71| 70  70| 72  72| 74  73| 74  72| 75  73| 74
CLD  PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC
WND   9  14| 12   5|  4   6|  4   7|  3   6|  4   6|  4   9|  5
P12   5  25| 64  41| 38  11| 12  22| 20  35| 39  32| 32  25| 28999999
P24      25|     83|     38|     22|     48|     52|     47|      999
Q12   0   0|  2   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  2   1|       |
Q24       0|      4|      0|      0|      1|      3|       |
T12  15  28| 33  27| 20   6|  6  12| 16  28| 27  26| 24  23| 20
T24        | 52    | 31    |  7    | 20    | 45    | 37    | 33

NGM Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

Climatological Summary

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Watch and Warning Statment

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Park/Ski Recreation Report/Forecast

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