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The Data originates at the National Weather Service, and is made available here by the UAlbany Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

Surface Observations

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Decoded Surface Observations

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Short Range Forecast

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Zone Forecast

VAZ099-021015-
Accomack-
Including the cities of Chincoteague, Wallops Island, and Melfa
1004 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.REST OF TONIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then showers with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Humid with highs in the lower 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts
up to 20 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms,
mainly in the evening. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. South
winds around 5 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Humid with highs in the upper 80s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds
around 5 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat index
values up to 105.


State Forecast

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State Forecast Discussion

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GFS Short-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

KMFV   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    7/01/2025  1800 UTC
DT /JULY  2                  /JULY  3                /JULY  4
HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18
N/X              75          81          68          90       69
TMP  84 80 78 77 79 77 77 78 76 71 70 69 76 86 88 88 81 74 72 76 83
DPT  75 74 74 73 74 73 73 72 71 71 70 69 73 71 69 69 71 71 69 69 64
CLD  BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC CL CL CL CL FW FW CL FW FW CL CL
WDR  20 23 23 23 25 27 29 28 29 00 27 29 32 29 26 22 21 23 26 03 01
WSP  12 09 05 05 05 04 06 04 02 00 02 02 02 04 06 06 03 03 03 05 07
P06        70    80    93    68    18     4     1     1     3  8  1
P12              81          93          20           7       21
Q06         3     3     4     4     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12               4           5           0           0        0
T06     38/ 7 31/ 0 36/ 2 39/ 3 15/ 0  2/ 0  1/ 2  4/ 9 10/ 4  1/ 1
T12                 49/ 2       39/ 3        4/ 2       10/ 9  7/ 1
CIG   8  6  4  4  4  3  4  4  7  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8
VIS   7  7  7  6  5  5  5  6  7  7  7  6  6  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N BR BR HZ  N  N  N  N BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

GFS Long-Range Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

KMFV   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/01/2025  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06| MON 07| TUE 08|WED CLIMO
N/X  74  80| 68  89| 70  86| 65  88| 70  87| 72  85| 73  87| 73 68 86
TMP  78  75| 76  79| 76  76| 74  79| 77  80| 77  80| 78  79| 78
DPT  74  71| 72  71| 69  65| 67  66| 71  74| 73  74| 76  70| 73
CLD  OV  OV| PC  CL| PC  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| PC
WND   9   7|  2   6|  5   8|  4   7|  5  11|  8  13| 10   8|  5
P12  78  85| 24   2| 11   1|  6   6| 10  10| 33  43| 38  33| 28999999
P24      88|     28|     14|      6|     16|     54|     54|      999
Q12   3   4|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|       |
Q24       5|      0|      0|      0|      0|      2|       |
T12  48  44| 17   4| 11   3|  1   1|  3   6| 14  21| 23  20| 22
T24        | 44    | 13    |  3    |  3    | 29    | 31    | 39

NGM Model Output Statistics (MOS) Forecast

Climatological Summary

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Watch and Warning Statment

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Park/Ski Recreation Report/Forecast

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