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Hi Rich (and everyone),
I have a
couple of real-time standardized anomaly loops that you might find
interesting. From a complete northern polar projection, loops of PW and
500 heights show some very interesting pattern, suggestive of an
atmospheric river extending from a storm associated with a cyclone off
the eastern coast of the US this time last week (~0000 UTC 24 Jan),
progressing east and perhaps merging with an additional moisture source
in the subtropical eastern Atlantic (26-27 Jan, around 30-40W) before
turning north across Iceland and Svalbard (29-30 Jan) and into central
Siberia as of present. As Rich pointed out, these aren't particularly
moist values of PW as most of us are used to them, but are rather
anomalous as his images and these images show, and are likely aiding in
the maintenance of the upper level ridge across central Russia (also
anomalous, >3 sigma). GFS forecasts (in the loops below) also suggest
the North Atlantic storm track is likely to continue feeding moisture
into the eastern half of the Arctic and onward into central Siberia
throughout the next week or so. Will be interesting to see how that
changes with the pattern alterations coming just beyond that time frame.
Other maps in the Arctic projection, such as 500 height std. anomalies:
Complete real-time site, including std. anomalies for other regions:
Kyle ------------------------------ -----------------------
On Tue, Jan 31, 2012 at 1:18 PM, Richard Grumm <richard.grumm@noaa.gov> wrote:
List
I made some better projections (http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/cases/30Jan2012/) and sequenced images.
I believe the 850 hPa MFLUX was well over 6 sigma along with the PW
anomalies at Spitsbergen. Thus, I sit corrected as the PW anomalies were
really high there.
I also found the elusive 1060 hPa high in the NCEP GFS.
Nice 500 hPa ridge too. Impressive.
I suspect the rains were in the 28-30 Jan time frame.
Was it predictable?
Rich
On Tue, Jan 31, 2012 at 12:50 PM, Richard Grumm
<richard.grumm@noaa.gov> wrote:
Mel,
So when did it rain? I will attach another image. Funny, I deleted the
text about the anomalous (6s) PW anomalies over the ridge in my original
email. Thought it was superfluous and wouldn't wash. May bad. The PW
field and anomalies were sent with the pressure
image. But this image (below) shows it too.
Hard to believe that 16mm of PW is +6sigma. No wonder they are all wet
up there. Reindeer smell real bad when wet, trust me on this.
I had to find out where exactly Spitsbergen was (attached), then spell it. Probably in the 3sigma area not the 6sigma.
Good thing about being stupid in the digital age is one can look smart when the internet is working.
Rich
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On Tue, Jan 31, 2012 at 11:33 AM, Mel Shapiro
<mshapiro@ucar.edu> wrote:
[Quoted text hidden]
--
Life is a journey not a destination.
--
Life is a journey not a destination.
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