List

I will attach two QPF images which I hope are somewhat self explanatory. One is the operational GEFS and the other is the higher resolution parallel GEFS.

4 panels show QPF probs with the mean in 25mm intervals. The thresholds vary with forecast length there are 6, 12 24 and 48 hour accumulations. I picked the big 48 hour accumulation period. The big 24 hour accumulations appear to be on Wed-Thu. Another format to show this.

The 48 hour 50 mm panel shows a big area of 50 mm but it also has a huge closed 150mm contour and a tiny 175 mm contour.

The 6 panels show the GEFS at 00 and 12 UTC for probabilities (upper) and mean QPF(lower with spaghetti) the far right panels are the NCEP GEFSPARA not the GEFS operational, only used 12Z cycle today for the GEFSPARA.

Big amounts and the PARA has higher amounts and higher probs for any category you pick.

Wish I knew what the model/ensemble climate was (M-climate) as these numbers appear to be really big.


Rich
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/cases//20Jan2012/ (GEFS-75 vs GEFS55 images)

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