together on recent Polar mosaics and TRMM is awesome (both attached).

GFS guidance (attached) has slowly increased past several runs with peak amounts near 18 inches in the Trinity Alps, where the heart

of the PW anomaly plume/AR is forecast to sit for a few days and slowly sag southward hosing all of norcal. Considering

this is a global model and the plume becomes parallel to the flow (there is a notable wave Jan 20) could we be talking

amounts exceeding 20 inches on the north coast and 15 inches for the Northern Sierra Nevada and Cascades. The pattern does

not appear to go away after Jan 24, though the forecast PW plume is much narrower and less while heights rise. Amounts of 5 inches SWE

respectable even for the Wasatch Range, given snow density and avalanche concerns. Based on PW fields and

height falls in the GEFS January 19-24, still think the southern California orographic areas are considerably underdone

in this QPF total. Up north it approaches historical levels.